Destined for War: America & China | Graham Allison | Talks at Google
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ก.ค. 2024
- Graham Allison, director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, discusses his latest book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?
When Athens went to war with Sparta some 2,500 years ago, Thucydides identified one simple cause - a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. Will Washington and Beijing follow the footsteps of Britain and Germany a century ago? Or will they find a way to avoid war as the US did in crafting a Cold War strategy against the Soviet Union?
Get the book here: goo.gl/DefzGh
Prof Allison felt the 'thrill and fun' of talking to young people most of which can be his grandchildren. Certainly he spiced the talk with 'therapy of pronunciation' lol
Darn , why not just talk to each other , the usa and china so rhere would be no war :: millions will die or we will all die if the nuclear war will happen .. just learn to cooperate ::and let the two be friends so all of humanities are happy ... and living in a peaceful world ..china is a oeaceful country so their leaders can just talk it out with the usa , so there will be no war in rhis world ..
I think I ll die of boredom caused by Graham before any war . I think he specialises in ennui
A long talk but didn't seem to say very much apart from describing the situation. There were two questions that were alluded to but never fully answered:
1. What sort of war would a China-US war look like? Multi-year, millions dead, global economy ruined? Or a surgical, "capability testing", flash war? What would be the likely end results of this war? Would be great to hear thoughts.
2. What action would the "martian strategist" recommend to China and the US on the North Korea situation? Regime change? Unification? US withdrawal from South Korea? It's all well and good to say "this can be solved" without addressing how it would be.
I believe that a full on clash is impossible, cause both states would probably get ruined. But more like a cold war, with proxi wars, economic war.
As a economist, I can tell you that we can’t predict future. We are good at analyzing economics
This time around, the Thucydides' Trap may not lead to a war between China and the U.S. for a simple reason: the fear of nuclear annihilation.
2 boxers in a ring can beat each other up until one of them is dead, without ever resorting to guns. Mutually Assured Destruction just means that we'll beat other to death with smaller guns, instead of the bigger guns.
New conflicts could lead to new manifestations of war. On the past war was manifested in gunpowder. Nowadays is manifested in nuclear power. What could be next?
It has a name: Citizens United v. FEC from which there is no return.
Totally love that that talk, clever man
Have a bottle of tranquillisers. maybe 10 !
Did professor Allison accidentally break wind (fart) when he coughed at 20:45?
9:25： 16 cases; 18:40: World's No 1; 18:51: time；
44:01 complacency and arrogance in the US military
一个和谐的世界秩序，不是靠一个政体维持起来的，是全世界政体和全世界人民的努力。说是美国维持了这样的秩序，是霸权主义和傲慢。A peaceful global order, can never be maintained be a single country, and is the result of hard work by countries and people all around the world. It’s hegemony and haughty to say that America maintained this order.
Its funny how he insists on "Thucydides" pronunciation and then completely butchers "Vaclav" (Havel) as if he saw his name just now for the first time.
Marko Kraguljac This greek huy was a thing in a world based on silver and gold, without technology to speak of, local production chains and energy scarcety. Why do all the retarded politicians bring him up time and again? Todays world isn't based on any of that stuff. Of course it's dangerous if our generals and politicians still think in terms of "gold standard" "global domination" and "greatest nation on earth". I think the chinese generals are more rational than the US guys in congress.
+pcuimac
Name anyone or anything that *isn't* more rational than "guys in congress". :D
Chairman Mao Incarnate: Its pronounced as Fuck Off, the reason being China is not Rome, the entire world except China, Korea and Ancient Japan never had this stupid trap for not just 500 years but the entire world history of people touched by the Christopfucking Columbus white man. Japan and South Korea has been included into this exclusive Western club but China has broken away from this because of the Chinese Communist Party. China is not a democracy, there are no politicians in China only the PLA whose patronage has created leaders of various community and sectors of society and that is what we call the Chinese Communist Party. The difference between Rome and Chinese Civilization lay in the nature of Chinese Politics, there are NO CLOWNS AND POLITICIANS IN CHINA, ONLY LEADERS OF MEN! In our next topic...
You know, we Czechoslovaks still haven't found out who and how convinced the Communist parliament to unanimously elect Václav Havel president.
Also, the current Czech prime minister was secretly recorded as saying the 1989 revolution was a secret service plot that got out of hand. He claimed in the same secretly taped conversation that Havel was elected by commies in a deal that he'd ensure communist party wouldn't be made illegal after 1989. Hard to trust him, he's an extremely bent type, but it's odd anyways.
Weird... He'd call a person ignorant for thinking there won't be a global power war then immediately proceeded to explain world war I and II were unprecedented. Wars which were ultimately followed up by the cold war, which was not fought because of the awareness of global war's devastation.
With a little reading between the lines he defunct his own premise from the outset. "don't be fooled, nothing changes... Except those times that changed everything which has been ever since..."
My prayer for World Peace:
US! US! US! what has thou done?
You are a Democratic Country and not a Demonic Country
You must seek Peace and not War - Iraq,Afghanistan,Vietnam,Ukraine, now China
You must Trade and not Sanction - chips,lithography,etc…..
You must Save Lives and not Kill - Iraq, Vietnam,etc….
You must Build and not Destroy - Iraq,Nordstream Pipes,etc…
You must make Friends and not Enemy - China, Russia,etc….
You must be Humble and not Arrogant - Neutral to help and not Bias with evil Intent
You must serve God and not the Devil - Be satisfied and no Hegemonic and Imperialistic
Amen
I had seen his videos, and the idea is almost the same or similar, the ruling power and rising power conflicts seems inevitable based on the history. And it seem we are in this similar spiral now between US and China.Each parties are building its own alliance, and stab at each other.
China has no friends, only business powers. Their only friend is maybe North Korea.
@@spaniardsrk5108 Chinese allies are the countries participating in BRI. And whole Africa also supports china.
@@prabeshrasini2146 Brazil will never fight with China, they’ve been allies with America for over 100 years.
India has many territorial disputes with China and is not a friend of China.
Russia doesn’t like China either.
These countries you mentioned are merely business partners.
@@TH-cam_EnjoyerlolHow times change
22.35"We provided the rules based World Order. We provided 7 decades of peace. " Hmmmm..... Tell that to the peoples of Vietnam, Iraq, Korea, Afghanistan, Lybia, Syria, Iran etc......
Google's view could be wrong
Beginning was a bit boring but 1\3 in to the end it was grade a content
Praise our great country the USA
🇺🇲
War like what you described will simply end the earth. It then does not make any difference. If US starts to use nuke against China, China will retaliate and, more significantly, in term of nuke power, Russia will guarantee to join in. The end is earth becomes uninhabitable. Good luck, humankind.
Allison talks to google employees as if they are illiterate 9th graders.
I think he wants everyone to be able to understand him. He also I think does the 'thucydides' pronunciation thing at every one of his talks. Might just be some sort of weird tradition of his.
As an old patriotic Vietnam veteran who is extremely angry!!! At what's happening to our country I understand why he talks to them that way. Many "flyover Americans" feel like we went on a six week vacation around the world and left our teenagers to run things at home with a Carta Blanca" high limit credit card. These kids are plenty smart but have been indoctrinated with a "Left Wing" socialist mindset that will destroy our country and they are thoroughly convinced they are right. This is going to end very bad for them and all of us if we even survive what's coming.
Its actually pronounced Thoukede'des in Greek.
Is the k pronounced ?
@@bleacherz7503 yes
He bored us with the pronunciation and does not even pronounce it right
The multiple patronizing comments denigrating the intellect of those born in or around 1990 were extremely irksome, unprofessional, and reactionary. His facile insinuation that China is not the leader of the global green revolution simply because it is the largest carbon emitter also betrayed a shocking ignorance of the realities underpinning the green revolution. The quality of this generally interesting lecture was unfortunately lowered by the heavy doses of foolishness sprinkled throughout.
Coltsfan I shared the same feeling originally. But on reflection, maybe his intention was to highlight the huge changes that have taken place from 1990 onwards. Becoz during the 80s despite under reform, China was still sleepy economy but swift changes start undertaken in the 90s
How did US ensure 7 years of peace? What is he talking about? Did he forget the Korean War and the Vietnam war? I can think of many wars which the US either started, escalated or took over. How many and which wars did the US prevent?
Most folks in China would rather not.
I am not sure what his source of info is for him to imply (45:30) that "mutual assured destruction (MAD)" exists between China and the United States. According to most information available the US has between 5,800 & around 6,200 nuclear weapons (1,750 actually deployed & ready to use)! China has 300 - 320 nuclear weapons total! That is about 5% of what the US has & about 17% of what the US has (ready to use).
That "sir" is NOT "MAD"! Not even close.
We are being told we should fear China!
My answer to that is BS! The Chicom's had better understand the US peoples mindset.
IT IS NOT that of academics!
I lived through the Cuban missle crisis. I don't know one person that said "let USSR put their missle's in Cuba because I don't WAR"! Just opposite, they said "let's settle this NOW"!
Why not spend time talking about how the two countries can cooperate for the property of the two countries rather than war war war.
Prosperity
The only thing I'm concerned about is eating this ribeye!
American ..listen to this speaker :::
I read this book. But we are in 2024 and China is not even close to be major than USA and never gonna be.
"liberated" cuba and the philipines, lets be real here, they are colonies!
Who else here because of The Great Elon Musk ?
No, here to refresh my memory. Musk is just another human being. Lots of amazing people out there.
Get rid of banksters and everything will be all right ...
Thermonuclear war.
Elon Musk brought me here.
26:17 Based on Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty between The People's Republic of China and The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (中朝友好合作互助条约), if North enters the war, China must join the war too. North Korea is the only treaty ally China has signed so far. So bombing North Korea nuclear facility is very very bad idea. This treaty was signed after Korea war ended.
China benefits from 70 years of US commercial order, NOW wants to change the rules?... which involves NOT contributing their rightful due to the first 70 years... (typical Chinese strategy... nothing has changed... still trying to make a dollar out of 15 cents) But US has securities in place as insurance
aguante Perón vieja
aguante Trump
y los ingleses son todos gatos.
I swear he farted
Julianna Boniello he absolutely did. Tried to cover it up with a cough too 💩
yup I thought I heard something familiar
Julianna Boniello 😂😂😂😂😂
were you held back again? are you in 7th grade still?
Nah, 6th
He is wrong, war is happening all the time, since world became more civilized, wars went to other level - economic, proxy, cyber, etc.
Put it this way: would you rather be bombed, or would you rather be without a job?
Based on history, it seems most people would rather bomb other people than be without a job.
This man has a very narrow and flawed vision
My thoughts too. I am surprised how elementary his thinking is for a Harvard class educator. Suggesting war between USA and China while totally forgetting both these countries are nuclear and a war between them would mean self-annihilation. Yet he believes in war between them as if today's wars are with spears and bows.
Using academic theories to threaten another will never produce healthy relationships. Very disappointing Mr Allison.
Amazing how much BS such a professor teils the public.