Charles Barkley was right about the NBA again
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 พ.ค. 2024
- #NBA
The NBA is changing and it turns out Charles Barkley was right this whole time. People doubted Chuck when he dropped knowledge SIX YEARS ago on TV but now the NBA world is starting to agree with him. This video explains how the Hall of Famer was right and why basketball will never be the same again.
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What I've noticed is that players like CP, DeMar aged like fine wine because they haven't abandoned that 'long 2s' that analytics despise. And that's fine by me, because I am tired of players being valued primarily on how high is their 3pt percentage. DeMar is killing it this year all the while shooting barely 4 threes per game.
I believe this is false dichotomy. Analytics has never had a problem with pull up 2s; just very very few players can do that. What is has a problem with is dudes camped out inside the 3 point arc shooting midrange range 2s. It hoses your ability to drive for wayyyyy more efficient layups and it's a way less valuable shot than a spot up three, so why shoot them. No one has a problem with a guy driving into the teeth of a defense, stopping on a dime and hitting an elbow jumper.
there is a handful of guys in the league who are so good at shot choice and shooting percentage that in the scheme of things, for these specific guys it makes sense to take those shots especially when it compliments there play variety. for 90% of the other guys this is not the case. Those other guys need to a) take a step back and shoot a three to make the +1pt worth the higher risk of missed shot or b)get way closer to the basket to increase shooting percentage. All this is especially true since often those long range 2 point shots are a sign of bad shot creation and lack of good teamplay. Again, if Kawhi is doing, who has a whole army of tricks up his sleeves, it's a different story. but not everyone is Kawhi.
True, look at this D. Robinson or Bertans, huge contract they regret. Look at now CP3, Kyle Lowry, even Caruso or Herro... The 3 era is was a toxic trend and didnt win Championships
It's not about abandoning the long-2. It's about figuring out how to shoot efficiently there. Most stars tend to (e.g. CP3, Kawhi Leonard, Embiid, Jokic, etc)
@@javigar133 absolutely right, the team Steph Curry is on didn't win anything. The greatest shooter of all time? Wake me when he wins anything.
Problem is not the 3 , problem was players taking inefficient 2s. If you shoot> 60 % on 2s and mix it up with 3s , its still good. KLAY still averages 5 midrange per game. Steph doesnt shoot midrange because he's that good from 3 point line. He instead shoots floaters. In this era too great players somehow find points in 2 point region. KD, Lebron, Steph, Cp all can score in 2 point range efficiently. Only players who were taking long inefficient 2s back in the day have now converted into 3 point shooters.
I would say Steph does take pull-up midranges when he’s the focus of the defense to open it up, but he doesn’t shoot as many as he did let’s say in 2015.
The problem is forcing a rigid system. Need to allow for some flexability. If a player catches the ball wide open at the mid range he should shoot it. Instead, many of these teams tell them to drive it or take some steps back giving the defense a chance to shift or recover.
Correct. The problem is not analytics; it's misapplying analytics. An open midrange should still be taken over a forced 3.
Umm.. Kawhi..
He needa shoot more midrange to save his legs lmao 🤣🤣🤣🤣 some games Steph just be out there to be out there 🤣
This is so true. I’m a Laker fan but I hate the fact that people consider AD better than Giannis due to their play styles. Even though Giannis has the awards and championship to back him up 🤷🏻♂️
Only laker fans say AD better than giannis
@@svt_onii delusional Lakers fans*
@@svt_onii I'm a laker fan and I think Giannis is better than AD without a doubt.
You must be blind if you think AD is anywhere near Giannis. Its not about talent or Skills, Its about being GREAT: determination, work-ethic, self-improvement. Giannis is a genetional role modelo, AD? Another talented dude
@@svt_onii AD is also has a ring
Here is the thing: Deryl Morey 100% agrees with Charles Barkley. That's why he traded for James Harden and Chris Paul. Or singed Dwight Howard.
Morey was mostly looking for a more efficient way to fill out his rosters around these Superstars and find ways to get the Superstar the surroundings he need.
Like in the 80s, you required an enforcer to keep your MVP candidate alive and create space. In 2021, you need 3 and D guys...
Superstars and Analytics aren't exclusives, but mutually beneficial.
Huh? Just put the ball in the hoop.
@@timberho3935 But you got to score more then the other guy. Whether that's by defense or hitting 3s when they hit 2s.
The problem with analytics is that teams overuse theml. They are just another tool in the toolbox, not the whole box. And from one year to the next, personnel changes and the analytics arent gonna be the same
i think the overuse of analytics is fine.. its meant to establish reliability and directed towards long term goals.. problem is players like harden and westbrook making a bad look of it
@@paulocuento9949 Analytics is still fairly new. I think the bigger issue is the analytics experts don't know enough about the game. It's a big disconnect between the two That's why the spurs were good despite being near the bottom in 3s attempted some years ago. Yes, replacing more of your shot attempts with 3s will help a team over achieve and put fans in the seats but in the end the team that has discovered it's strengths outside of that always win. Look at the Lakers from the past year or two.
@@bobyoung3857 i agree... some analysis are directed towards making the game more efficient, and focusing on what statistically works to win a championship... however, there are also a lot of other variables to consider, that may not be quantified, like team chemistry and rapport.. these factors, i think, were what caused the lakers a bad season. so many great players, but lacks the chemistry and overall team mindset
Glad your on YT man, your personality and passion will land you a spot on sports center or another program, but im glad your YT for now.
Lol he was on a spot on a sports program, he cover the spurs
You’re*
Thanks man, I really appreciate that
@@aaronlicon347 you got me….lol
Hopefully he does
I was saying this yesterday to my wife bc we were watching the Baylor/ Iowa St game.
Iowa St was getting dunks during the game but continued to stay away from getting the ball deep in the paint. They would take 3s and shorten possessions while they were down by 5 or 6.
Get the ball in the paint and bang on the boards and if a 3 is open take it. It shouldn't be your foundation of your offense.
Things you can't chart in analytics: courage, style, audacity, individuality, and mental toughness.
Demar DeRozan is a perfect example about how getting buckets will always supersede 'analytics'. Who cares about analytics, this guy is still gonna take contested fadeaways, he's still get 8 FTs a game by baiting defenders with the pump fake, and you still have to guard him. That's what basketball is all about.
Barkley said you're not gonna win a championship by shooting jumpers, and that still holds true today because of the Raptors, Lakers and Bucks. The only reason the Warriors won championships shooting jumpers is because they had 3 of the best jump shooters in NBA History, to think that you can replicate that without at least 2 S-tier jump shooters is insane. I'm glad Defense is becoming more valuable and the game is balancing out again.
If you can shot like him
the thing is 33% from 3 I 50% from 2 it is a way better shot just not for people like him
If you can shot 2s with your foot on the line at 50 % then keep shooting them
if derozan could hit 3s hed be shooting them more.
@@rayrayschnapps8217 If you can avg 27pts without shooting 3s and you're constantly getting to the FT line, who needs 3s? The game is infatuated with what Steph has been able to do, doesn't mean everyone has to emulate him to be successful. 30pts is still 30pts regardless of how you get it.
@@09lowkey you need to be able to hit 3s to space the floor and make it harder to double team and easier to get to the basket and shoot higher % shots. when derozan doesnt have the ball his man can stay near the paint. he would be more valuable player and make his teammates better if he could space the floor better.
@@rayrayschnapps8217 You're delusional. DeRozan is just as deadly as anyone else in the league right now without a 3pt shot. Not to mention he just hit 2 game winning 3s in back2back games. So no, he doesn't need a 3pt shot, he's still his team's leading scorer and come playoffs, he'll get just as many double-teams as any other Top 5 scorer in the league. Just because Steph opened the flood gates for infatuation of the 3, doesn't mean basketball revolves around it. The most deadly player on the floor is the player who can put the ball in the basket, doesn't matter if its from 13ft or 30ft. Watch the Bulls in the Playoffs this season and you'll understand what I'm talking about.
when morey had that analytics no one was shooting a hundred threes. when everyone start shooting more 3s the analytics of shooting went down. talent and hardwork is the very best determining factor. thats why im with barkley even at that time. klay and steph are just very VERY terrific shooters.
Ima tell you two options for the next "analytical trend".
1. At least 3 7 footers on the floor and a tall PG. IE. The Cavaliers after they acquire Ben Simmons lol
2. The Giannis effect. Trying to find the next great overseas player who just needs some development and the idea of building a team around one superstar and pieces that fit him.
About trend 1, It has always been there, overwhelm the opponent with size is an efficient récipe. About trend 2, you have talented kids all over the world, Europeans have better foundamentals because they just dont only train shooting 3s or rely on Physicality as much as in US. Thats a good point mate, well done
I think your on the money with 1. I wouldn't be surprised if the obvious tall is better than small is directly compared to 2 > 3 in another 10 years.
@@RaidPerspective especially if you got kids like Evan Mobley on the floor who could be playing a 7ft small forward in a couple years. Can you imagine an average height of 6'10. Good grief, people think Ben Simmons at PG cant work. What if you surround him with 7 ft. Shooters who play defense?? Can you lose??? Lol
@@RaidPerspective size is a clear advantage on basketball, largee guys are getting more skilled nowadays because they are not required to live on the Paint.
We are starting to see the game change just look at the last few years you need bigs to win Toronto gasol ibaka siakam lakers mcgee howard Davis milwaukee Lopez Portis giannis. So if you look at the teams around the league that have that formula suns Ayton mcgee bridges jazz O'Neale gobert whiteside bucks giannis portis and Lopez or cousins sixers embiid drummond Harris
One of the reasons I’m hopeful Embiid has a big window to win because he’s so good at midrange shots. Midrange shooters usually have long productive careers.
15-20 years if they are consistent from 15-20 feet always will be
Embid I fear has a 5 year prime window his body is at its physical peak and he’s always getting injured when he hits 30 he’s probably gonna have to come off the bench or drastically change his play style like brook Lopez or horford that’s gonna extend their time in the league
Embiid got better the past couple years. He still takes 3s at about 3 a game but if you look at him today from a couple years ago he was hanging out at the 3 line for long stretches. Sure he'll make a few long range shots but as an announcer said (Mowins?) anytime you get Joel to shoot a 3 you've won on D. Think Giannis also learned this and just took too many 3s in the past because he was supposed to or something.
i thought good 3point shooters have longer and more productive careers..
@@Mellowyellow8888 problem was he was often getting the ball outside the arc and either shooting a 3 or B: faking a 3 and driving to the hoop from the arc. I've seen him drive from the arc and dunk it, its crazy impressive and its the basketball equivalent of not sliding as a QB. His body is just too big to make drives like Wade/giannis. not to mention he has prev knee injures and has a tendency to only land on one leg on his drives to the hoop
Congrats on 200K Casey! You deserve it! You never fail to keep me entertained I’m constantly going back to watch old videos even ones from the bubble😂
Love your content. Love your sound quality. Love the charisma. One of the best on YT
This is so well put up. Really enjoy your videos!
Love it! Tried explaining this to my brother in law about players playing versus the stats surrounding the game.
Dude this is by far the best video you've made from a reporter side. this all makes crystal clear sense to me, like I never realized why I was liking the warriors less and less and the suns more and more (as a Chicago fan). Keep up the great work! :)
That is so awesome to hear Matteo!! That means a lot man!!
This one has to be one of your best videos. Great job!
Thank you Roberto!!
I'd have to disagree with the statement that shot quality has no correlation with field goal percentage, but agree that the missing link to establish the correlation is talent. Give those same talented players better quality shots and I guarantee they'll have higher field goal percentages. But because they're more tightly guarded, they don't get that many good looks, and their lesser teammates who are not as good are the ones who get good shots off because the defense gives them less focus. Unfortunately, they're of course not as consistent shooting the ball, which ruins the correlation.
Looking at analytics in its entirety, it's a combination of getting good talent and getting them good shots based on their skillset which analytics pushes for. I honestly think analytics is being misrepresented and overly simplified by saying analytics just says 3s, layups and dunks are better than long 2s. A full analysis of the entirety of games would show how players good at long 2s (like Demar Derozan) can affect games by opening up both the lane and the 3 point line by making players more honest, and ultimately the numbers will show that through other statistics like open looks generated, even though it doesn't directly tie to fg%, which is affected by other factors like the human element. It should really be either getting the right players for the system, or using the right system that fits your players, and the analytics will just show what's working and what isn't. People should understand that analytics uses numbers to explain what's happening on the court, so it shouldn't be taken by itself without the context of what's happening in the game and the personnel on the team. It should be able to tell that 3s are guarded more tightly and teams like to pack the paint, so the statistically "bad" shots are what teams allow more, and there are more open looks generated that way. It's really a balancing act of reacting to what the defense allows and having the best chance to make a shot, so there's still no easy hard-and-fast rule when it comes to analytics
I totally agree with this one
Thank you sooooo much for this video! We feel vindicated!
Been watching this channel regularly for a month now and it always starts with a "controversial" thumbnail that gets my eyebrow turning only to always be backed up with entertaining and informative content.
Cavs “big man” lineup is possible for the next era….
OMG! This might be your best video ever , amazing dude. Context + stats + humour = A.M HOOPS
After watching that Celtics/Bucks game on Xmas day, I totally agree that the game over all has really taken ten steps backwards in terms of excitement. It’s so sloppy and slow now. Defense is basically gone, and the passing is ugly. Things really need to tighten up, and players need to stop thinking about max deals in favor of playing better as a team.
I mean HALF the players on rosters are out. So team ball is harder this season. Defense takes chemistry something teams are lacking this season. Covid ruins everything ugh
So you only watch that gamr and not the rest wow
Covid exist yunno...
@@RealCGH yes, something is making people sick.
This isn't new. The abused, manipulated and extremely nefarious part of the paradigm is "the testing."
The inventor of the PCR test was adamant "don't use this test to determine if someone is sick!"
Because it picks up EVERYTHING in the body, and there is evidence of everything in our systems.
So they are grossly inaccurate. Which has birthed the new term "false negative."
There are also carcinogens in some of the swabs.
E/O is ethylene oxide, very poisonous.
Chris, testing and it's results are being used to destroy entire economies.
People get sick, we always have.
@Sub if you are against Antifa and BLM -- as an Anti-Fascist, I am offended by your YT moniker
Golden State Warriors are the standout because they are the only team that runs their office primarily off the pinch post as opposed to the Pick n' Rolls, taken straight out of the triangle offense. This allows them to get a way more balanced offense of layups and open 3s which allows their Star (Steph) shine while allowing the others to score.
True story! Solid video. Absurd that people would attempt to discredit a Legend who played the game when it was amazing to watch! I side with “Sir Charles”
The next big stat is Rebounds. Eventually the game is going to come down to who can get the most possessions and rebounds are a prime Stat to be looked in comparison to possessions
Team rebounding matters a lot. Individual player rebounding is less important. Similar thing with the midrange. It's a bad shot.......unless you want to be an elite player they all still have midrange games well and Giannis and modern harden. Though harden threw away his midrange game.
Great point, having mobile bigs will be the next step....Lakers and Bucks the last 2 Champs dominated the boards, mainly 2nd and 3rd chance points
Good, good, good point. First thing I watched is number os shots taken, then rebounds per team, then points in the Paint. It works 75-80% of the time
@@GeecheeSlim so did Toronto..
The three pointer over the past 7 or 8 years was also a more popular option because shooters figured out how to game their way into getting fouls by leaning in to create contact or falling down on every shot, regardless of whether there was any real contact. Now that the officiating is watching for the "flop threes" a little more, you're more incentivized to shot fake and drive if you don't have a clean look on a fly by. If the officials get to the point of negating the "flop three" option to the point where players start to realize it's not worth the risk to continually try to scam three free throws, the upward trend of mid-range attempts may continue.
facts
I want to suggest a defensive metric, like successful rotation percentage or time to response by help defender, but defense is a stats wasteland and as a professional data analyst I know that what you see is determined, primarily, by what you choose to instrument.
So it will probably be a pair of passing metrics, maybe something about average quality of passes in a possession, and something else about the look generated. Easy to operationalize, probably encouraging players to deploy to specific places or anticipate specific movements. Optimizing on those grounds would raise the floor for the metrics, but once everyone was on the same page, everyone would do it and everyone could defend it.
Optimization is a reductive trap, as metrics are moved with focus, but meaningful in context. The more you focus and manipulate, the less useful they become. Skilled analysts know this, but are not immune to it, and most of the people who act on analysis are even more susceptible.
As a new NBA fan, I would love to see the '90s style play. Although it's fun to watch the warriors hit tons of threes a game, it would also be cool to see other styles.
I agree with you. Analytics only works if you are the only one doing it. If everyone is doing it, there is no longer an advantage to analytics. Then you have to have talent. It's true in all sports.
I think we're going to have a very athletic, strong inside big-man like Shaq in the next years or so.
The would-be difference is, this player will be able hit free-throws and the open shots.
That's a logical revolution for the NBA since most bigman nowadays are the finesse-type. To counter that, you will need an overpowering presence down low.
People saying the midrange is a bad shot are wrong. It's more nuanced. Shot distribution quality should be balanced with the hunting grounds concept and others. Coaches should adjust scheme to fit their players' capabilities, which is why Pop is still the best coach out there.
You are actually making a very strong case for analytics (and for more analytics) in this video.
CAVS
that’s going to be the next analytics
Very smart video. Great job mahn.
Thanks so much man!!
I remember when Dirk was seen as this generational, exception the rule, odd combination of height, skill, handling, IQ, talent, etc. & seeing a 7 footer hit a 3 was a unique & fascinating thing!
Fast forward to today, and teams are EXPECTING their 7 footers to shoot 3's... Watching the NBA today just feels so bizarre compared to just a little over a decade ago.
But how many 7 footers shot 3s like really out of 30 teams with like 5 or 6 shoot 3s most dont because most 7 footers don't have the shooters touch .
@@tesytes318 fax
Its crazy that after a decade dominated by Jordan, the midrange somewhat became underrated.
Variables are important in sports because they make things harder to predict. When everyone catches on to a strategy they will adjust and then you need something else.
I hope that NBA goes back to every team having a different playing style teams like bucks with big strong slashers, GSW with shooters while the Celtics with midrange and dunkers
New trend: minute staggering helps getting your franchise player to be in full strength for the playoffs. Seems obvious, but many NBA teams didnt get the memo so far.
The next edge is a big man that you can’t stop
Gravity
4:26 Well. Yeah. If every team starts going for 3's & Layups. Then, you are not going to get an edge anywhere. Because everyone has accepted the value proposition and is trying to employ the same strategy. Teams should then start looking for value added in other areas.
Like in the difficult mid range. Where having a Durant or Derozan can be important. Especially if they can shoot such shots efficiently with little time on the shot clock.
Edit: Does the graph/correlation and ranking at 4:36 account for contest vs non contest? Time on shot clock? If so, then I yield.
So the rankings only count makes not attempts? Ok, this helps bolster yours/Barkleys argument.
Lol, and my comment was pointless. Another good example as to why you just watch the video till the end.
I take the argument of it helps to have a well rounded team with all many players doing some things very well. Shoot 3's, play defense, etc. Then specialize in other areas.
The economic concept of Division of Labor, applied to basketball.
That graph showed shot quality, which just means where they are attempting shots from on the floor and it probably factors in somewhat whether they are open or contested. The reason it isn't correlating is because the shitty teams are the ones taking those shots. I think this is a weak argument against analytics tho, comparing teams like the rockets with the suns. Of course the bottom feeder rockets will have a bad offense taking "good shots" compared to phoenix suns taking midrange shots cuz they have chris paul and devin booker, two of the best midrange shooters in the league. If those rockets were jacking up long 2s all the time as opposed to spot up 3s and layups, they would be even worse.
@@mrbucky226 thus proving talent beats analytics
@@musicotensai well if you mean talented teams will beat shit teams regardless of their style of play, then yeah obviously that’s true haha
This is facts I’ve peeped this the past two years
Kudos for the SF2 World Warrior cuts.
Versatility and team synergy is, and always will be, the name of the game. The ONLY exception to this rule is ireplicable players like Wilt, Shaq, Kareem and Curry who have something that everyone else needs to adjust to.
I am definitely of the opinion that the obsession with the 3 point shot has definitely hurt basketball from a fan perspective. Basketball was such a beautiful game to watch when teams where strategizing getting to the paint. Nowadays it’s just keep passing until someone is open outside the arc and shoot. It’s not the teams’ or players’ fault. Their playing within the rules. But I wouldn’t be too upset if some kind of rule were implemented to put a limit on the 3.
Finally! Someone spoke about the stupidly long shorts! 👏👏👏
Next analytics edge? One should be the return of the lockdown defender with the new rules. If not lockdown defender, at least versatile enough. And able to create value on the other end. Thinking Draymond Green. Or, say Giannis learning to effectively play center on defense and improve his 3pt shot. This has been occuring, but hasn't been fully appreciated or realized. This still gives the Warriors a bit of an edge in the league. I think Kerr and their front office understand this pretty well.
I think there is value in a soft press to force some cheap turnovers, or burn a few seconds of the shot clock.
Teams Shooting Dashboard Shotclock | Stats | NBA
It is interesting to see the Rockets and Jazz buck the trend in the 7-4 second range.
Perhaps defenses will switch up looks once they see a play has been called, burning another few seconds?
Counter value in players who shoot well when the shot clock is low. But, this should have more to do with talent and playmaking. Shot clock efficiency should be one ot the better ways to measure talent and who you want as your franchise player, or #2.
Should be rebounding value in figuring out where bricks will end up. Depending on what area from the court the shot is taken. Maybe teams know about this. Don't should corner threes misses tend end up closer to sidelines? top of the key shots should tend to brick into the painted area?
Obviously talent is the crucial part, analytics is a tool to maximize your team - a player like Demar who is shooting over 50% for basically his entire career with the long 2s, should definitely take them. 50% from long 2s is a very good stat "analytics-wise", since it makes the offense less predictable - especially with Demar being a pretty good playmaker - he can dunk, shoot and pass, which force the defense to make errors. Offensive player, isn't measured by shot-quality and not by his efg - it's by the points the team is scoring per possession with him on the offense and without him on the offense. Harden's efg/TS wasn't the best in the league/history, but his drawing fouls ability, made him the best offensive player of all time, using the points per possession metric.
Analytics is the key for taking a less talented team, over a more talented team - Morrey took that Rockets team, to almost beat that super warriors team - and without the CP3 injury, it would probably be accomplished.
good point and also shooting 50% from mid opens up a lot of passing lanes. If you shot 40% from 3 corner range your passings are more limited. From two you have more options since you are in the center. You can almost pass to any 3 pointer or continue to the rim. Having enough options is important.
Analytics work, it can give you numbers to go w/ what you see on film for offensive/defensive sets. Though sometimes I think analytics break down because of the NBA in general. Regular season basketball is not playoff basketball and that 46% guy from 3 is gonna get closed down a lot faster when the intensity is ramped up. Stars plus No2-3 guys on a team in general, their goal is self-preservation in the regular season marathon.
Long twos are easier to take according to players like cp3… people expect you to stay at the three. So if you drive in many defenders don’t really know what to do. You can knock it out for three or get a more open look. Many players would rather keep you from getting a three, settling for a two and try to get one down the court themselves. If they don’t you’re up two. So I think long and middies are the next big thing. As with anything the way to have an edge is to either be the best at what everyone is doing by far (eg shooting 60%+ from 3 consistently) or be the best at something most players wouldn’t think to do
Casey is there any reassurance for the nuggets? Do we have to wait for next year again? 😢 I am very sad but happy holidays anyways
I think the rule changes regarding contact and fouls may be having an effect. The rules seem to be going back toward the 90s era rules, so perhaps the players that thrive will play more like the 90s.
"Did u see how Tim Duncan used to dress?"
...uhh, bro have u seen how russ or Kuzma dress? 😅
Hahahaha!!!! Great point!!
The NBA has the biggest social media presence out of any sport besides soccer saying it fell off is a bit disingenuous
I'm glad you're finally understanding young buck, you said what I've said for years now (2:30) teams had different looks/styles (offense, defense) and every team no matter how good had that one team that could cause them problems. Every team is the same now, I don't know why they fire coaches anymore - they don't really coach X&Os, they don't run a system anymore. It's just give the ball to your best player and create kickouts...
Mid 90s had teams shooting high volume threes but they were not winning which is why they were forgotten. Defensive effort is the difference in the statistical shooting percentage from three.
in mathematical (analytical) standpoint, we let
Ec = efficiency of a shot, Vu = volume of a shot is used, Vm = volume of a shot is made
barkley's value of a shot, B, is computed as
B = Ec/Vu
which if we further simplify
since, Ec = Vm/Vu then
B = Ec/Vu = (Vm/Vu)/Vu
B = Vm/(Vu)^2
and if we look for
lim Vm/(Vu)^2, Vu -> +inf = 0
or in other words if the "volume of a shot is used" is increased without improving the "efficiency of a shot", then the shot's value, B, plummets.
this is the case for three point shooting according to barkley. once three point shots increased in volume, the number of missed shots also increased in volume at scale since the efficiency never changed, hence it is not fun to watch.
and, to be fair, in studying statistics, it's quite more fun to watch the outliers, which is in this case, the talented and the superstars. barkley was right, analytically speaking.
Thinking Basketball created the best video on the subject. Analytics didn't say anything about superstars taking less midrange 2s. Analytics suggested that ROLE PLAYERS should take less midrange 2s. For superstars, midrange 2s are still efficient shots, especially when modern defenses are looking to take away the 3 and shots at the rim.
The analytics edge now is knowing that defenses are going to make threes and dunks harder because they don't want offenses to be efficient. A wide open midrange shot will usually have a higher percentage than a highly contested shot. Defenses are getting better at adjusting to analytics.
The graphic you have at 3:46 says “from two” for both the 60% and 40% stat but it doesn’t align with what you said
Analytics may suggest the long two is a bad shot, but when defenders are more focused on stopping the drive and protecting the step back the mid-range becomes more open.
The next analytics revolution is starting, but it is no longer focused solely on game tactics like 3's versus mid range 2's. The next revolution is using analytics to maximize player development. Why is it some players can go to a team, and they get better and better while others don't? What are the set of measurable and esoteric qualities that a players who do develop have that predict improvement? The biggest change this year to me is the emergence of either new players or the reemergence of players that have found a second life with a new team. Barkley is right, you need talent. But he also is quick to tell the story of how Moses Malone got him to work to work hard to improve. Yes, raw talent will get you a long way. But it takes real player development, and a plan for each player fitted to their physical and mental needs to maximize their potential. What I see in the league today is a lot more focus on developing talent all the way to the end of the bench, and using analytics to do it.
Talent doesn't beat analytics, Talent + Analytics beat Analytics with no Talent. When every team is using the same analytics; it means you need to find better analytics as much as you just need more talent.
As someone that has been making a small mint off of statistical analysis, I have no problem with analytics shaping things. Logic is usually cold and uncaring, and if you're playing to win, you go with what logically and provably works best.
When goal tending in 3s is not a goal tending anymore..
I think analytics and Steph showed the importance of the 3 point shot. That it should be a fundamental skill for the average NBA player and not just for a couple of role players and super stars. Now for Steph, it was obviously a way to overcome his height problem. But for the average NBA players (6'6 to 6'9) it has become normal for them to practice the 3 just as much as the 2. So the next leader of the next movement, will be something similar to a Luka Doncic or Kevin Durant who is a very real threat in the post, shooting long 2s and shooting deep 3s.
The assumption that the equation for shot quality does not change depending on the player was a bad one from the start.
I think the next step in analytics is personalised analytics for each player - scouting reports are going to get more and more technical on players and we will move away from the notion that a "good shot" is the same for every player.
Completely agree with this analysis. Every team essentially plays the exact same way and we have all but done away with positions be the majority of players can be pigeon hold into one type of physical template.
Seeing players pass up on easy layups so that they can pass the ball to their wide-open teammate to shoot a three whilst all the time defenders just have to watch because God forbid you actually touch another player.
Basketball isn't the only sport to decline in its quality, Football (soccer) has also become very difficult to watch as a result of how soft it has become and how everything is driven by the need to generate more and more money
from 85 to 2000 best NBA ever
The way that pace and possessions are handled is changing because of analytics, as is rebounding. It's not perceptible for the casual fan though and announcers are on to it but they just don't say anything. A lot of teams are taking open shots early in shot clocks with no rebounders under the basket is an example. Old wisdom said don't shoot a 3 early in the clock when your team hasn't advanced to rebound... but now it's realized that it's less important to try for a low change in your rebounding odds (offensive) when not having your players advanced means that if you miss your defense will set quickly and the opponent can't fast break you. It's complicated, and it is changing.
cerebral obedient players with a lot of confidence are probably going to dominate...and as a team. I think team ball like what they got in Charlotte or Cleveland will prevail, plus just being really long and everyone being able to shoot... I don't think the individual superstar is going to be as important and that might mean the game is less popular because it is easier to watch Mike dominate everyone on steroids than watch an entire team on steroids play out extremely complex analytics and strategy.
The evolution of the high percentage 2. With so much space on the court players like Giannis show if you shoot +55% and have the ability to create. The inside game is relevant.
The three point shot has nothing to do with why viewership is down.... Every major sport seems to be having this discussion over the last few years and doesn't realise the truth. People don't play nor watch sports as much as they use to. The ideal age for a sports fan is 15 to 30, after that life catches most ppl n they become casual viewers at best but ppl in that age range have such a wide variety of accepted hobbies now. You can be a 27yr old man watching anime/ cartoons/ video games without society looking at you like an alien. So ppl don't default i sports anymore
people just dont watch tv as much. and when you want to watch through internet, it is usually damn expensive. better watch something else
as it is a team work, the team work will do the job
They need to make league pass cheaper and access to all games. I catch what I can on tv but I can’t afford another subscription. Especially this year with all the players sitting out with covid, I wouldn’t even get my money’s worth IMO
People who don't understand analytics think it's just this one style of play. Analytics is a whole series of evaluations that inform a team how they could be most successful. Now whether the team is able to execute those recommendations depends on talent. There is a dynamic relationship among many variables of the game, some of which are not even quantifiable as of right now.
It's the Cavs. Playing 3 7 Footers that can shoot the 3 and play D with a PG that directs the show well.
Game 6 of NBA Finals 2021:
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 50 points
3 Point: 1 = 3 points
2 Point: 15 = 30 points
1 Point: 17 = 17 points
Giannis played the greatest Game in the finals since... Jordan? May be. he changed basketball in that game
It's not analytics fault as much as lesser talent try to be Curry, but most importantly defenses having adjusted to the three now give up highly efficient two's all day.
The new meta is three seven footers and 2 guards. If the Cav's hadn't had so many injuries in the guard position they'd be great this season
Bro the TV ratings are down because of how many ways you can watch not because the way the game is played 😭
So how many ways can you watch NBA on 1999?
The old heads are always right far as I'm concerned, they've lived this game.
3 pts beat zone defenses by spreading the defense, creating lanes for penetrators.
That is why 3s became huge.
Like the Street Fighter 2 reference 😂👍
the rule is take 3 and dunks unless you can prove you can shoot from other locations than just take a shot where ever you have a clean look and are comfortable.
The reason analytics doesn’t work that well is because their is a big difference between a contested shot and a open shot. An open long 2 will always be a better shot than a contested 3. That is the part no one talks about. Also the way the game is officiated changed the way defenses play. In the 80s and 90s players didn’t take many 3s because the defenses didn’t allow it. Now you can take more 3s because it’s officiated differently. But the main point is that open shots are better shots than contested shots regardless of where on the floor your shooting from
By Analytics i think if you mean like stats-anslysis in football ⚽, if so, I totally agree with you. There are folks in football these days that are all about stats, how much of this does he have, shots, dribbles, chance created, assists etc. But in the end, its down to the eye test - what atmosphere does a player create around him, his influence on and off the ball/pitch as well, where he positions himself relative to what the team is doing, what and where his teammates are and are doing in the moment etc. Stats, analysis is like a broken mirror, you see bits and parts of the reflection but you can never see it all. In the end, what you (managers, coaches, trainers) see with your own eyes, feel with your instincts, what you hear is what really matters. If what I've just said isn't related to Analytics at all, I'm sorry for getting it wrong.
That's not the problem. The problem is people is not in the house watching TV like they used to back in the 80 in 90. People rather watch highlights on TH-cam.
return of the big man
Charles Barkley is Always right, when will people learn
Nice video 1st and foremost, but in my opinion Boogie Cousins started the soon to be next trend, AD, Kat, Embid, Giannis, Zion when healthy, Bam, Jokic,, having a dominant 2 way stretch play making big is going to be the new 🌊
Case and point Cleveland right now.....ijs
players like Giannis, cp, DeMar, kd. These guys are the ones who are focusing on the mid-range. But something I realized coming into my first year of the varsity program was that much more people shot the mid-range than what I heard and watched 5 years ago. 5 of my friends on our varsity team mastered the post fadeaway and mid-range. That's where a ton of young players in my city thrive nowadays and I think at least one guy here is making it into the NBA (hopefully I could be in that convo) but it's gonna be a changed game soon.
Giannis was never considered as a mid range shoote
Of course talent beats strategy when the talented players have the same access to the analytics as the losers. That's how it SHOULD be. What else is supposed to decide the game winner? A lottery?
a player that’s gonna be perfect for this next “era” os going to be jokic, a big guy that does everything offensively on not just a good but a god like level, pair this with his improvements on defense and you can take your team from being the worst team in the nba with you off the court to being the best with you on the court
I never minded guys like steph lighting it up from 3, I mind how half the league shoot 25% from 3,but still continue to jack up 3s.
It seems to me it's all about defense. Back in the day when I was a kid in the 90s the defense was intense so offensive players had to earn every bucket. I don't think the defense is as intense which makes it for a pretty lame game. It just becomes a big shootout and people laughing up shots uncontested on a regular basis. Hardcore man-to-man defense and letting the people bump around is what made basketball great in the late 80s and '90s.
I'd love to see hand checking allowed again just to see the effect on the game. I think it would be quite interesting.
The NBA is definitely the lightest it's been since the 50s
The other thing to mention is that players/teams are being allowed to play some defence again.
Future of the NBA
Speed up and down the court 👊🏼
That dont work in the Playoffs
Charles Barkley is a genius dog. Merry Christmas Casey!