Tesla Split, Karpathy, FSD, Bot w/ James Douma #29 (Ep. 571)
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 มิ.ย. 2024
- I’m joined by James Douma for my first in-person interview as we discuss Tesla FSD, competition, Andrej Karpathy, FLIR, Tesla humanoid robot, free speech/censorship and more.
James Douma on Twitter, / jamesdouma
James Douma on AI playlist, • James Douma on AI
Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction
01:03 - Tesla stock split
06:33 - Tesla profitability with Model Y
08:17 - Andrej Karpathy sabbatical
16:15 - Role of Andrej Karpathy at Tesla AI, FSD
31:57 - Elon Musk pace
34:36 - Sandy Munro take on FLIR, thermal infrared cameras
42:04 - Comma.ai, Waymo, Cruise
54:12 - Tesla FSD progress, ie., speed sign recognition
59:46 - Moment vs gradual FSD/Robotaxi release
1:05:30 - Alpha build of Tesla FSD that Elon Musk drives
1:08:14 - Training Tesla FSD for new markets like Canada, etc.
1:11:34 - Will Tesla FSD ever work in India
1:16:12 - Risk of top talent leaving Tesla?
1:20:42 - Limited volume production of Tesla Bot by end of 2023?
1:27:12 - Free speech, Twitter, censorship
1:45:56 - In-person interview vs remote interview
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James Douma always has an interesting perspective on things. I enjoyed the in-person interview, felt a bit more natural versus the remote interview. Thanks for the quality content, Dave!
10/10, A* for the in person setup. Looks super professional. This is what you will need for the [inevitable] Elon interview. There seems to be more expressive body language in person and looks like you can converse more naturally without waiting for a speech gap to speak.
Not enough ferns.
@@gergc4871 More cowbell
Love the in-person interviews! Hope to see more in the future
Definitely set up is 🔥 to
Oh yes between the ferns! Love the setting, love the "non-delayed" responses.
i luv cathy's bro
The social media tribalism that pushed stocks up to bubble territory worked just fine -- for a while. It always works for a while. And then the speculative bubble pops. And parasites like Rob Maurer are suddenly feeling desperate and without purpose. There's no where to go but down. And the constant one sided BS arguments that THE MARKET IS WRONG AND THE STOCK PRICE IS STUPID all of a sudden sound incoherent and worse, delusional. Rob Maurer thought he was an expert at something -- this former Kohls department store buyer responsible for what -- ladies lingerie and lawn furniture? But it was all just a little bit of luck mixed with social media speculation. The armies of enforcers who crapped on any skeptic who raised a doubt are dissipating. They know its over. And deep down, even the biggest parasite of them all, Rob Maurer, who has been making money off all of you bagholders' eyeballs, knows it's over. He would have quit by now but he was hoping for an interview with Elon Musk. The ultimate narcissistic reward for a parasite who suckered countless investors into the stock at $1200, $1100, $1000, $900 ....only to see it grind lower and lower and will continue to grind lower and lower and lower. How many shares has Elon sold this year? HA HA HA HA. Always for a good reason, right? Nobody wants to own long duration assets right now, and that won't change for a very long time with rate hikes coming every fed meeting all year, and probably into 2023. Tesla stock valuation is equal to all the other car companies' valuation combined even though Tesla only makes 2% of the cars in the world. And the social media tribe yells back -- we've heard that before, and it hasn't hurt the stock!!! Until now. HA HA HA HA HAHA HA HA HA HAA HA. And when Tesla hits rock bottom -- and that might be $300, or less -- it's not going to come back because by next year, when the ugly cybertruck sales start fading and it's obvious that ROBOTS won't pick up the slack (HA HA HA HA HA), competitors will be selling more and more affordable EV's which is what the market will want in tough times. There will be a Tesla union increasing costs, raw material costs through the roof, Elon spending as much time on Twitter or more than he spends on Tesla, and China will never fully recover as a long recession will doom luxury car sales (in Europe too). Tesla might even lose 90% of its value from $1200 -- as did Amazon. Rob Maurer once made a comparison to Amazon!!!! He's not making a comparison now, is he because Amazon is down almost 50% from it's high. hahaha haha. And the vast majority of drivers DO NOT WANT FSD. What a sales pitch that idiots like Rob Maurer passed on to naive investors. You want to sit at the wheel waiting apprehensively to take over when the car does something dangerous????? What fun is that? YOU HAVE TO PAY $12,000 for the anxious state of mind, risking the life of yourself and your loved ones, and strangers walking in front of your death machine? HA HA HA HAH. ALL THE OTHER CAR COMPANIES ARE including driver assistance for free. THAT IS SUFFICIENT AND PREFERABLE to paying $12,000 for phony baloney FSD -- which of course is not really what it says it is. And besides, most people don't have $12,000 when inflation is outstripping wage increases by 3% -- people are poorer every day. There's also the fact that every car company will have the same exact FSD as Tesla -- and here's proof: Toyota is NOW getting into the robotaxi business in Asia. Sleazy stock promoter Rob Maurer won't tell you that, but robotaxis exist now in the U.S. and soon Asia as well, and they're not owned by Tesla. Elon Musk said in 2018 that there would be a million Tesla robotaxis on the road by 2020. The competition has beaten him to the punch. And the competition also makes much nicer cars. If you want a really nice car, buy one from a car company, NOT A TECH COMPANY. The cybertruck is the ugliest thing on wheels, according to Jim Cramer who said a month ago to buy Ford, NOT TESLA. BUT ROB MAURER, former ladies' lingerie and lawn furniture buyer at Kohl's department store is telling you that Tesla is going to be a $3 trillion company. What a liar. The competition is indeed coming. Even famed investor and billionaire doctor Michael Burry tweeted that last week. The social media tribe yells back -- we've heard that before! Right, and it didn't matter, but now it matters. Now it matters. It's over. Warren Buffett: “The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. They know that overstaying the festivities, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”
How does this in-person interview differ from my remote interviews w/ James Douma? Would love to hear your thoughts. (Btw, studio isn't mine... I just borrowed an existing studio in town.)
I would like to see at least one shot with both of you in frame for proof this was an in-person interview. For all we know you weren't really in the same room 😂
Vignette in the video is bothering me.
Twas spectacular in comparison.
And otherwise. 😏
It takes a minute to get used to after all the remote interviews but the longer I watch I start to get used to the in person rhythm of the back and forth. It seems more natural in person like more conversational. I can tell you guys don't have the same apprehension that comes with not wanting to step on each other when you are remote. Great job and I very much appreciate both of you. 💪
Love JD, I wached all your interviews with James. He's so smart and such great communication skill to articulate his thoughtful explanations of complicated subject. He would be a great teacher.
He already is for me :)
I’d jump to take a course from him anytime
@@ZaphodTube yes, his descriptions and analogies are superb.
I think James nailed it. The major architecture shift has been done and proven successful. Now is the time to train and tune the NN with massive dataset. No better timing than this to take a break for Andrej. I believe he will come back. There is just no other places in the world that could offer same level of real life AI projects with deep pocket of resouce and talents.
Great obeservation on Karpathy, the most confidence infusing prediction that I have seen so far. He has to return, see FSD/AI/Bot to completion.
The most rapid method of improving the neural net is to install FSD software on every capable Tesla that unless paid will only run in a shadow background mode. That background software compares the FSD action with what the human driver actually does and forwards the most widely different actions automatically to the NN software, much like the screen touch that Beta users do to flag instances.
Then those divergent actions are analyzed to determine whether the human action or the FSD choice was better and adjusts the net accordingly.
@@richardereed9205 I believe that is exact what they are doing. People use Autopilot/FSD with great caution and naturally switch it off when driving conditions get tricky. The data needed for training is from manual drive, so makes sense to deploy the shadow mode to all capable cars instead of those with FSD enabled.
@@richardereed9205 this is practiced since years. "All input is error" Elon mentions years ago
Great chat, highlight was Dave's comments on free speech and censorship. The last few years have been eye opening.
I liked that part the least. He drfited into an emotional space and was unprepared. James rightly avoided it.
@@mearino Dave gave clear examples and remained rationally sound. I am glad Dave was brave enough to speak out on this issue.
I appreciated James' take on that the best, personally. He rightly points out that pretty much nothing in nature comes down to either a 0% or 100% route (or black-and-white, or binary thinking), which I think is where Elon's "free speech absolutist" comments veered towards. One of the few times where I don't think Elon's comments on something were very well reasoned or rational. There are forms of speech which provide no (or virtually no) upside to society, such as child porn, hate speech, etc. Why leave that stuff unfiltered just to be an edge lord? As such, saying nothing should be filtered is a pretty childish take, IMO. As James mentions, we have to determine the merits of where that censorship line lays, rather than abandon it altogether.
The Arab Spring. By today’s woke standards all those accounts would be closed down for indirectly promoting violence.
Wow, love JD!
Not all about FSD, but I enjoy the dynamics between Dave and Jame’s discussion on various important topics of our time. Live interviews are so much better than virtual.
Dave are you practicing for your Elon interview with Rob? Awesome seeing you in the same room with James. Always a treat when you guys are together.
Looking forward to some tough questions for Elon and some great insights, I know these two won't go easy on him.
Dave Lee, Thanks for the in-person (long) interview with James Douma!
This studio is 💯💯💯
The in-person format is refreshing 👍
Only 16 minutes in and have to sleep but want to make a point. If Andrej Karpathy is passionate about language modelling, then he will come back and help with the Tesla Bot project. No way he can get that far ahead of the field anywhere else. Look forward to watching the rest tomorrow. Great team you two.
OK, finished, they briefly touched on this much later but not directly as a reason Andrej might want to stick around. Great back and forth. I like how James analyses everything in degrees. There are no absolutes. Like Twitter appears to be doing a fairly good job of filtering out bullshit. (paraphrasing)
Live in person interview is more interactive and the energy is up a notch and Very positive 👍👍thank you Dave and James🙏
Dave- thank you for advocating for free speech. Twitter has gone mad
In person interview is just so much better than zoom calls. Very nice set up and camera angle too, great job
James Douma is my favorite one of your guests. Great interview! Please have him on again to comment on Gigafest!
So cool seeing AI Legolas in person!
Love JDouma!! ❤️ Love it when he reassures Dave's worries and random hypotheticals 🤣🤣🤣
Almost like therapy for Dave 🤣
Wow! I look forward to more in person interviews. I love the studio as well.
Spectacular, as always, with James! Thank you Dave and James,
10/10- more engaging…more relaxed..more of a connection!! Keep it up!!
Ok, first few minutes..... AWESOME camera, lighting... content. Dave, you are the reason I go to youtube. Great job.
Really good episode. Can't get enough of James.
James Douma is the only Tesla talking head in TH-cam that is worth listening to, period. Everyone else is either fluff or click bait.
Dave seemed overwhelmed by James’s lucid clarity and impressive insight to very thoughtful questions. Pure Gold. 🙏
Over all another great interview with James! Thanks to both of you for putting this together!
In person set is great! The dynamic is great! You guys smile way more :)
The stock market rally run is over but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.
It's a fragile season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence i will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on. I made over 80% run-up in net profit which is like 10x more than I make on my own.
I second that! Two summers ago, I was in the university and simultaneously working as a blogger. with the help of a financial>coach, i grew my reserve of $50k to a reasonable sum in a few weeks. Helped me a lot.
How can one find a verifiable financial Planner, I buy the idea of employing the services of a Financial>Advisor because finding that balance between saving and living requires counsel
Nicole Deanne Mckay is a Pro that provided me with entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. you can look her up plus she is verifiable.
Really thoughtful conversation, thanks fellas!
Can't begin to say how excited I am for this!
Nice to see two good people talking in person
James Douma is a treasure. I hope he forms his own podcast or show to have content on a more regular basis. I find he has so much more to say and share.
BRAVO! DAVE, IT'S A NEW, VERY NICE STUDIO! CONGRATULATION!
awesome job...james is incredible, i very much appreciate his time as well as urs dave. i wd never miss
dave lee vs. james damn-a!
Great!! and 100% agree with Dave on the free speech and censorship issues in US recently.
Dave you’re a great interviewer and an inspiration.
An in-person Dave & James interview?! This is so cool!
What a pleasure listening to JD. Not many like him. Thanks 👍
Top notch interview. Loving hearing from JD. Great job as usual Dave.
Great interview and in person format.
Love this in person!
Great in person pod love this format!
I drove for comma in 2016. My car couldn't do the self driving stuff so I stopped in 2017. I have a Tesla now and it's really amazing.
Great set up, bonus points for your insight on big tech censorship!
I mostly listen without the video displaying. So liked the reduction in lag and overtalk, and the avoidance of occasional quality glitches in thr audio. But despite liking it better it wasn’t make or break by any means. Also, would be perfectly happy with a single steady shot with both of you in the shot. Which would reduce your editing burden. But again, as a primarily listener not watcher it is of little importance to me how the camera is framed.
Great interview. Watched all 1 hour and 47 mins. Thanks for putting this together
Andre, just needs a real vacation. Anyone who did a real 5 year sprint in their career did this. Microsoft has 3 month sabbatical built in after 10 years. Everyone takes it. Many other high tech companies do too. Cisco, Amazon on and on.
Much better in person 👍🏼 thanks for a great video
Well worth an hour and forty-five minutes. Thank you.
The Douma-Lee connection is straight fire 🔥
EXCELLENT! Love you guys together. 💝👍🏻✅
Very good dynamic, with in person discussion.
Finally you two together. Excited to see this happening.
I think what James said about the role and work done by Andre is spot on. Andre had a bigger role in the beginning and very likely things have gone so well under his leadership, a strong team with a succession path is already in place and Andre is probably working on a bigger role for himself. I am sure it’s likely that if Andre doesn’t find a bigger role within Tesla, he’ll find it outside and it will all work out well.
Congratulations on the face to face set up Dave. Beautiful lighting and overall video. Quality of content is still there obviously.
I think James summed it up well with regard to FLIR.Yes it would be an improvement but for now the ''Brains''is by far the most important thing to get right.Love to hear you both getting into the granular details of these subjects.
Awesome production value and content - thanks for everything you guys do!
I appreciated James Douma's acknowlegement that there were potentially different approaches to FSD and that some companies were trying to solve slightly different problems; such as robotaxis in specific geofenced cities. In the early stages of technological development there are often rival technologies AC vs. DC, AM vs. FM, command line vs. GUI and even with the atomic bomb, the U.S. came up with two different ways one with Uranium/gun assembly and Plutonium/implosion. Multiple engineering approaches exist even though winner take all markets favor a single approach whether the winning approach is "optimal" or path-dependent.
So much better in person interview, thank you!
To quote Dave: "Yeah yeah, it's fascinating stuff!" 😂
Love these interviews! Great to see you both meeting in person for this. Thx
So professional in all aspects….. great job - both of you.
My new favorite. Thanks guys!
Awesome interview! I really enjoyed listening to James speak. He is very well worded and I admire his economics of words, vocabulary and knowledge on topics discussed! I feel like I have a better understanding of the data science and AI world than prior to watching, as well as how difficult it would be deciding yes or no to peoples social media posts that are broadcast to the masses.
This is awesome Dave. Great job!
Oh this is such a treat seeing you guys in person together after so many. Thank-you both 🥳
Thanks Dave love hearing from James
Wonderful. Thank you for your service.
AMAZEBALLZ!
So great to see you both do a in-person interview! Have my fair share of interviews working as a recruiter.
The difference is...vast!
I think James was a great choice, you know eachother as good as you can from digital stuff.
Great, just great. so fun!
Yes in person its even better. Loved it.
You guys both look better in person on my tv 😊
Wow. Awesome Dave. Keep it up!
James seems a lot more charismatic and even more at ease
Dave, I’m super excited for you dude! Have fun, thanks for all the coverage and conversations 🙏🏽
What an amazing discussion with James!!!
I always enjoy and feel that the time spent listening is well worth it.
The face to face format went very well.
Thank you David…..so very very much.
This was beautiful. Such big brains. Thank you.
Spot on about in-person being a much more efficient and smoother experience for the participants and viewers alike. Great chat!
Nice job. Love the discussion of censorship. Surprised it doesn't concern James more, guess he hasn't focused on it.
35:00 James on FSD
Nice! Thanks both ! Awesome
You guys are both awesome! Love how James takes the drama out of the sails on just about every topic.
A completely open social platform won’t succeed because the noise floor would be too high. Think eBay vs. Amazon. The filter is a feature. What seems to be evolving now are news aggregators, people who filter through the noise and tell the busy and/or incapable what they see. The aggregators are the new reporters/journalists. Sometimes they do a significantly better job.
Thanks Dave and James !
Thank you Dave and James for another excellent video!
In ADDITION TO ANDRE'S TECHNOLOGY SKILLS he appears to be a great COMMUNICATOR and AMBASSADOR.
This format needs beers!
Excellent IRL chat. Great work!
Excellent interview! Thanks Dave and James. Your discussions are always some of the most rewarding (@2x speed).
Great discussion. Very appreciated
Loved this! Thanks guys!
Loved this format, James summed it up so well at the end. Great discussion - many thanks
Thanks Dave for the interview, valuable content as always
This some great TV. Keep up the good work Dave!
Thank you James and Dave for the insights! Look forward to seeing both of you in Austin next week.
James is a researcher and a thinker a/k/a a critical thinker.
He's representative of the type of people we need our colleges to turn out in greater percentages.
Looking forward to this interview. Will watch this evening. Cheers from The Netherlands
This is amazing in person
Now that you're going to build a studio, can we get some advertisements on your Channel to pay for it?
The smile on your face!
In person!
Maybe it's better cameras that's making it much better
It's just way more personal. You connect more and it's an overall more pleasant experience to watch I'd say. I like it!
Also I wanna say that I adore the production quality. Your camera is amazing, lighting seems great and now even your counterpart has nice audio!
Great setting & lighting . Pro.
DAVE! AMAZING THUMBNAIL!!!;) AND THANK YOU AND JAMES AGAIN FOR THESE ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE INTERVIEWS!!!;)