The jobs we'll lose to machines -- and the ones we won't | Anthony Goldbloom

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ก.ย. 2024
  • Machine learning isn't just for simple tasks like assessing credit risk and sorting mail anymore -- today, it's capable of far more complex applications, like grading essays and diagnosing diseases. With these advances comes an uneasy question: Will a robot do your job in the future?
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ความคิดเห็น • 906

  • @leovega2512
    @leovega2512 6 ปีที่แล้ว +319

    The more I see these videos the more I convince myself that nobody knows which jobs machines will not take from us

    • @turtleextra4128
      @turtleextra4128 4 ปีที่แล้ว +22

      Leo Vega just imagine all jobs on earth right and there’s your answer

    • @guilhermehx7159
      @guilhermehx7159 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      I feel exactly the same...

    • @richie1589
      @richie1589 2 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      Concept artists are losing their jobs soon, sad life we live

    • @zedzedlika8943
      @zedzedlika8943 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@richie1589 the demand is going to significantly decrease and won't be as in demand other than high expertise, same going to apply to computer programming and other jobs, soo.. ai of our current era is going to be more important for independent users to create products, either physical, comic/animation, games, mostly areas of entertainment that can satisfy or internal desires. so fundamentally any designer/artist will have to be there own freelancer/brand name if they truly want to succeed during the advancements of ai.

    • @jamesburrows3602
      @jamesburrows3602 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      All art and information jobs

  • @nO_d3N1AL
    @nO_d3N1AL 8 ปีที่แล้ว +607

    I think this talk needed to be much longer and more detailed.

    • @UnrealSquare637
      @UnrealSquare637 8 ปีที่แล้ว +38

      Agreed. With all the previous articles, talks, etc. that have been published regarding the future of AI, this video brought absolutely nothing new to the discussion. Total fluff.

    • @venkatchait007
      @venkatchait007 8 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      check out 'human's need not apply' by CGPgrey if you're interested in this stuff.

    • @unvergebeneid
      @unvergebeneid 8 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      +Yijuwarp It's a good video but at the end of the day, Grey is not an expert and it shows.

    • @venkatchait007
      @venkatchait007 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Penny Lane
      Yes, you're right, but does it matter :)

    • @unvergebeneid
      @unvergebeneid 8 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Yijuwarp Yes, because his predictions are somewhat naive extrapolations of the present and if you're bold enough to talk about the future, that's a problem. For a lot of what he says, this means nothing but maybe an adjusted time frame but I remember cringing a lot while watching that video. I'd have to watch it again to go into more detail and I'm not sure this is the right place for such an essay in the first place.

  • @Cryptonymicus
    @Cryptonymicus 6 ปีที่แล้ว +191

    What he's really saying is that as time goes on the repetitive jobs at the bottom will be taken over by machines and even the entry-level jobs for humans will all require advanced degrees. So we're going to have to develop some kind of "Universal Basic Income" or half the population starves.

    • @waitwhat3547
      @waitwhat3547 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      universal basic income might happen in first world countries but not in underdeveloped or poor countries so yeah, those people are dead

    • @brojakmate9872
      @brojakmate9872 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @Пиво и приколы Can you just google the plot?

    • @taylorsmith9629
      @taylorsmith9629 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      The problem with that is who pays for UBI?

    • @brojakmate9872
      @brojakmate9872 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@taylorsmith9629 Black people

    • @Raya.T
      @Raya.T ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@taylorsmith9629 Taxes. the way to pay Ubi is by limiting the costs of essentials and making luxery products expensive.
      say you want to go out to buy an expensive PC instead of a cheaper option that lets you do all you need to do right. The expensive PC parts would be 6-7x as expensive as right now due to Taxation that happens to fund the UBI.
      Besides that you'd also see larger taxes on people & company's. because everyone gets the UBI even if you earn billions you'd still get the Ubi so you can pay for all essentials. everything else you earn will be extra so this can be taxed a lot harsher then we tax currently. One of the major issues with implementing Ubi systems though is that before you can you need to have regulation laws about Energy,gas & rent/mortage prices. In that they are not allowed to exceed certain threshold so that people with UBI can still all use them.
      It's a system that can very well be applied in current day and age but it requires major regulation changes right now.

  • @dtshifter
    @dtshifter 8 ปีที่แล้ว +199

    Education too often focuses what computers do too easily, mathematics and recall of input data. It is almost like people are trained to be replaced instead of being irreplaceable.

    • @rossmilburn7838
      @rossmilburn7838 6 ปีที่แล้ว +20

      John O'Neill: You made a good point man. Western education started in Prussia, when they trained the working class in obedience and dumbed-down learning, to make obedient, patient drudges to work as soldiers and factory workers standing by machines. How easy it is to replace these human robots with AI robots. So this is another important reason to start teaching humans to learn to be creative, autonomous, original, and disobedient...

    • @abskulOfficial
      @abskulOfficial 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@rossmilburn7838 you just put pure gold out there man!! Appreciate that.

    • @JordanPAT
      @JordanPAT 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Schools are robot factories.

    • @rajinfootonchuriquen
      @rajinfootonchuriquen 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Nop. Educaction is focused on what is productive, and machines are made to do what is productive. If you shift the curriculum to liberal arts, then the world will become idiocracy.

    • @dtshifter
      @dtshifter 3 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@rajinfootonchuriquen Nobody gets paid the big bucks to spell check, add a couple numbers or recall the capitol city of each state. Those things are effortlessly done by inexpensive computers and should not be the cornerstone of an education system today. In 1900 that did make sense. Creativity is way more important now if you are building homes or inventing the next wonder gizmo.

  • @arunkanwar79
    @arunkanwar79 6 ปีที่แล้ว +72

    So the benefit we see from machines for humans is "Keep looking for new challenges, always be in stress"

    • @KushG420
      @KushG420 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Supply and demand is the king

    • @arunkanwar79
      @arunkanwar79 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      @@KushG420 many times demand is artificially created...just look around you...

    • @davidrojas4687
      @davidrojas4687 ปีที่แล้ว

      they better pay good for the productivity gained

    • @HeraldOD
      @HeraldOD ปีที่แล้ว

      does a new challenge always have to mean stress? at work I often feel excited tackling a new problem and solving it, but stress is pretty rare

    • @arunkanwar79
      @arunkanwar79 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@HeraldOD Creating Algorithms will someday make me a cyborg😀. Point is we now we must run but not when to rest

  • @rakeshverma2209
    @rakeshverma2209 8 ปีที่แล้ว +53

    As Anthony quoted the example of using machine learning to diagnose an eye disease, it will not be wiping out the job of an eye specialist rather it will be aiding to his diagnose process.

    • @VaeSapiens
      @VaeSapiens 8 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      Yes. I can see "machine assistants" but not "machine doctors".
      Why?
      Because People will never accept a machine giving "the bad news".
      Also this lecture has a fundamental flaw that it doesn't see the potential for some kind of transhumanism and technological and AI singularity.

    • @Adrian_Galilea
      @Adrian_Galilea 8 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      "Because People will never accept a machine giving "the bad news". "
      Disagree completely, in fact I prefer a machine, and predictions like this are worthless anyway, progress always impose itself whether you like it or not, adapt.
      "Also this lecture has a fundamental flaw that it doesn't see the potential for some kind of transhumanism and technological and AI singularity."
      Exactly what I was thinking, that graph was a joke.
      I wish I remember the name of the theory that elaborates on why humans are so bad at predicting huge paradigmatic shifts or catastrophes

    • @niveshproag8660
      @niveshproag8660 8 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      Is the doctor a doctor if his job is just to give the bad news?

    • @VaeSapiens
      @VaeSapiens 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Adrian Galilea Why did you attribute "people" to yourself (even tho it's plural). I can just say that I don't want a medical AI and by nature of set theory you can't disagree with my assertion, until you convince me (and others with this belief) that we should embrace an artificial doctor.
      Nivesh Proag Obviously no. A physician or "doctor" is an individual who practices medicine. Medicine in broad terms is a science that deals in finding the best way to cure or/and prevent diseases. This methodology involves other sciences like economics, pharmacology, sociology and psychology, physics and many more.

    • @VaeSapiens
      @VaeSapiens 8 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Nivesh Proag You really should work on your personal issues. Bye.

  • @jiblazed
    @jiblazed 8 ปีที่แล้ว +74

    Nice talk. Except the optimistic conclusion that we can still do things machines can't - is umm... rather shortsighted.

    • @geoff1121
      @geoff1121 6 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      Camper Josh give some points to support your opinion, otherwise your response would come across as emotionally driven juvenile banter

    • @IndieBirdieMusic
      @IndieBirdieMusic 6 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      But he's right. AI and robotics is still soooooo far away from what humans can accomplish. There are so many complicated facets of our brain and composition that AI may never compete with. But he's right, for now and the foreseeable future, AI is confined to doing manual labor that can be broken up into pieces.

    • @turtleextra4128
      @turtleextra4128 4 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      Indie Birdie yes but tech is moving faster then ever robots used to be unable to walk up stairs just 13 years ago now they can open doors carry coffee do your taxes drive a plane and that tech will double in the next 13 years

  • @icelandmoon
    @icelandmoon 8 ปีที่แล้ว +76

    This robot is so lifelike.I look forward to more robot ted talks.

  • @smu4242
    @smu4242 8 ปีที่แล้ว +106

    The assumption that some jobs cannot be automated feels totally arbitrary. Humans are machines too, we are just biological machines.
    There is no reason to assume that mechanical/digital machines cannot do, what we do. It's just that CURRENT machines cannot do all the tasks.
    The more interesting question is: Do we want them to do all of our jobs? Especially regarding economy as well as goals like self-fulfillment.

    • @guilhermehx7159
      @guilhermehx7159 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Unfortunately I agree 100% with you

    • @dekippiesip
      @dekippiesip 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      They can but it won't happen in the near or even intermediate future. AI is a disruptor but not yet on that level.
      Traditional machines need humans to explicitely code their algorithms, and that works for easily describeable repetitive tasks. Like building cars in a factory. But some repetitive tasks can't be easily described, like recognizing handwritten digits. So you use a fundamentally different concept, you feed the AI with massive amounts of data and it figures out it's own algorithm. That's a revolutionairy new step that will shape the 21st century for many decades to come.
      To take it a step further and make AI's that can do things without being either explicitely programmed or trained with massive amounts of applicable data requires yet anothet revolutionairy advancement like the one described previously. It's not simply a logical continuation you can expect with improving training algorithms or hardware.

    • @A.I.Silicate
      @A.I.Silicate 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Uh he mentioned doctors and lawyers jobs as ones that will be impacted. Those aren’t typical blue collar jobs which means a education isn’t necessarily going to save you. I think he was alluding to humans needing to be more creative or think outside the box. Those that are gifted in that way may have a niche in the market the rest are out of luck.

    • @ecehanbalkc6146
      @ecehanbalkc6146 ปีที่แล้ว

      Humans are not "biological machines". To this day no one knows how consciousness is actually generated in the brain because it isn't. AI may replace humans in cognitive functions but it's never going to be conscious and experience emotions.

    • @Alianger
      @Alianger ปีที่แล้ว

      If they can make the world a more fair place then go ahead and automate economics. I just don't think the people in power will let it happen

  • @tomiwithaneye
    @tomiwithaneye ปีที่แล้ว +24

    loool theyre getting good at making art, music, poetry, buisness strategies, marketing and a whole whost of novel creative endeavours now, I think he underestimated the machines.

    • @Sunshinelollipops223
      @Sunshinelollipops223 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      I was looking for this comment. We are going to be wiped out in the next ten years. It’s going to be like a sci-fi movie. Insane.

    • @C4MMU5
      @C4MMU5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I predicted this. I deserve to get famous but I'm not
      Edit: the comment above mine has 4 likes, and the comment below mine has 3 likes, while my comment has 0 likes 🤣🤣🤡

    • @JTScott1988
      @JTScott1988 ปีที่แล้ว

      I dunno…. Music? No two songwriters write the same.
      No two composers compose the same.
      Computers are all built the exact same way.
      There will cease to be any individuality in music

    • @san9eeth
      @san9eeth ปีที่แล้ว

      ​@@draguOdoT as we speak Writers Guild of America is having a strike which is an affect of A.I

  • @Gaxhar
    @Gaxhar 8 ปีที่แล้ว +179

    The jobs we'll lose: jobs that poor people work
    The jobs we won't lose: jobs that poor people can't afford the degrees for

    • @jakerowland4936
      @jakerowland4936 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      This guy is an embarrassment to any kind of pro-automation movement

    • @dekippiesip
      @dekippiesip 2 ปีที่แล้ว +25

      That's why free education is so important. We are wasting human capital if smart poor people aren't able to contribute their full potential due to a lack of money and connections.

    • @howmathematicianscreatemat9226
      @howmathematicianscreatemat9226 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Sadly also: the jobs most mentally poor people cannot perform even with the highest amounts of effort… will likely stay another decade

    • @Daniel_WR_Hart
      @Daniel_WR_Hart ปีที่แล้ว

      If it's any consolation, it looks like white collar jobs are more under threat than the trades

    • @Alianger
      @Alianger ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Learning is to an extent democratized through youtube and such platforms, just not enough.

  • @njs43
    @njs43 8 ปีที่แล้ว +109

    *All* jobs have the potential to be automated at one point, no matter how complex. It's only a matter of time before machines catch up to us in tackling "novel situations" too.

    • @NormanTiner
      @NormanTiner 2 ปีที่แล้ว +35

      6 years later and art, one of the most intricate and unique aspects to the human experience is being automated.

    • @DONTTOUCHTHEGRASSIMALLERGIC
      @DONTTOUCHTHEGRASSIMALLERGIC ปีที่แล้ว +12

      @@NormanTiner honestly sad. I hope they ban it since it is using other artists work as information without permission

    • @brojakmate9872
      @brojakmate9872 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      @@DONTTOUCHTHEGRASSIMALLERGIC I hope they don't ban it. You are delaying the process of human achievement

    • @jghifiversveiws8729
      @jghifiversveiws8729 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Artificial General Intelligence once innovated will render this entire Ted talk mute.

    • @neo-didact9285
      @neo-didact9285 ปีที่แล้ว

      Not military, such as infantry.

  • @arerayace
    @arerayace 8 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    If the machine could use algorithm to grade essay, couldn't it be engineered to create the copy for the marketing campaign? with input of certain parameters?

  • @tiarnan76
    @tiarnan76 5 ปีที่แล้ว +125

    robots will soon be doing TED talks....oh wait, they already are

  • @texasforever7887
    @texasforever7887 8 ปีที่แล้ว +18

    What happens when you connect the machines together though something like the internet that allows them to pool knowledge and figure out how to complete new and unique task

  • @boom7819
    @boom7819 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    Was trying to figure out which jobs AI won't automate. That's when he said copywriting, which I do and was looking for an alternative career. Now I understand nothing is really out of reach of AI

    • @abhisheknimbalkar3881
      @abhisheknimbalkar3881 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      All the best man, let me know if you need help in career path

    • @simonnader8173
      @simonnader8173 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Going through the same thing. I've just finished my BA in translation, and i'm starting to get demotivated due to the rise of chatgpt

  • @ionelCristianLupu_
    @ionelCristianLupu_ ปีที่แล้ว +11

    well... this didn't age well

  • @drake4638
    @drake4638 3 ปีที่แล้ว +15

    I always think about how all these jobs we see today one day will be done by machines, everything from dentists, McDonald’s cashier, to the guys who change your oil. The only jobs that humans will have will be corporate or high level position jobs that require decision making for a company. One day

    • @JTScott1988
      @JTScott1988 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@SimonTmte they’re so expensive and drive over a puddle and u fry the electronic engine

  • @nathaniel7103
    @nathaniel7103 8 ปีที่แล้ว +15

    Gosh, TED's community seems to become more rampant with individuals who are just plain ignorant. Instead of saying "meh" or condemning the content, add to it, give your opinion and have someone challenge it. We're here to learn, understand and adapt. Come on guys, grow up.

  • @TheRealDanBond
    @TheRealDanBond 8 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    We need to start our transition now and intelligently. Theoretically, making things automated should be fantastic for our society, but because of how we build it, it will cause chaos.

    • @taylorsmith9629
      @taylorsmith9629 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      How are we supposed to start the transition?

  • @waddadawd
    @waddadawd 8 ปีที่แล้ว +31

    It doesn't matter if we lose some jobs to machines, this has always been a feature of capitalism. Economic progress comes from the destruction of jobs, labor is then reallocated to where is is most valuable.
    A hundred years ago 40% of the workforce was in agricultural jobs, but as time progressed and more efficient machines were created, that figure has dropped to about 2%.

    • @ActuatedGear
      @ActuatedGear 8 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      Which came as we made an upshift in many other industries - mostly shipping, manufacture, and sales. Those jobs are next to go.
      Our basic needs are finite as is our lifespan. As we amass information and technological sophistication, very soon we will be able to provide for every need without fail without the need for human intervention. It is a fixed point with an accelerating approach vector.

    • @yyny0
      @yyny0 8 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      It has never been a 'feature' of capitalism because it happened and happens in all economic structures, and capitalism will die out without jobs to create capital, as the state will then have to provide capital (e.g. food) for their citizens.

    • @waddadawd
      @waddadawd 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      1. "Has never been a feature of capitalism"
      - yes it is and has always, as you don't find many advances in capital equipment in socialistic countries.
      2. "Capitalism will die out without jobs to create capital"
      What does that even mean? Are
      3. "The state will then have to provide food for the citizens"'
      What? So capitalism "dies out" and producers are just not making anything? Or is it that producers are making stuff, but no one can buy it because of a lack of jobs? Whatever, you make no sense.

    • @Lapusso650
      @Lapusso650 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      +YoYoYonnY dude... You're saying automation STOPS production...

    • @Lapusso650
      @Lapusso650 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      The whole point is to eliminate the need for jobs. I can't believe the idiots calling automation bad for the economy. It's literally for the economy

  • @AllenLinnenJr
    @AllenLinnenJr 8 ปีที่แล้ว +40

    The first profession will also be the last.

    • @666Tomato666
      @666Tomato666 8 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      you sure about that? haven't you seen the hyperrealistic fuckdolls?

    • @ThereIsNoOtherHandleLikeMine
      @ThereIsNoOtherHandleLikeMine 8 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      When you can clone the girl of your dreams without her permission, whether IRL or in VR, the first profession will no longer exist.

    • @AllenLinnenJr
      @AllenLinnenJr 8 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      ***** What are you talking about? Just because you can grow a prostitute in a test tube doesn't make her not a prostitute. Clones are people too.

    • @davidwuhrer6704
      @davidwuhrer6704 8 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      On this topic, I recommend the book “Saturn's Children” by Charlie Stross.

    • @C3yl0
      @C3yl0 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Allen Linnen, Jr. dude you cloning the physical part not the fkin brain 😂

  • @Ekaekto
    @Ekaekto 8 ปีที่แล้ว +31

    Let everyday bring you a new challenge? Really? What about people that are not very intelligent and have to rely on jobs that are easily automatable?
    This is terrible and terrifying, unless we restructure dramatically unemployment rates will rise drastically.

    • @JuanPablodelaTorre
      @JuanPablodelaTorre 8 ปีที่แล้ว +22

      There needs to be a paradigm shift in the way we think about work. When computers displace humans, unemployed people should have all their basic needs covered.

    • @nathan791
      @nathan791 8 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      Don't stay unintelligent is the solution.

    • @YouHolli
      @YouHolli 8 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      This. But who decides what is a basic need? Food, shelter and clothing are obvious but beyond? Public transport, internet access, a mobile phone, are those basics or luxuries? And what about medical treatments? Where's the line of what is basic and what is not. Those are unanswered ethical questions and we have to sort them out. And yet I doubt we'll have to, cause in reality greed will triumph as it always does. And we will have societies divided by the insanely rich and the hopeless poor.

    • @panpiper
      @panpiper 8 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      Basic Income Guarantee. See my above post.

    • @Ekaekto
      @Ekaekto 8 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      Nathan
      You can become educated as much as is possible for you personally, and I know of many people you wouldn't call conventionally intelligent that do have a rather good education. But people have limits, I'm sorry you don't see it that way. Be it genetics or circumstance, not everyone will be able to reach university degree education that requires you to use your creativity daily (which is mainly only engineering and science anyway).
      I am sorry but this talk is fundamentally flawed in that it lacks compassion for fellow humans. The guy delivering the talk won't have any problems in his future, because he is responsible for increasing machine intelligence.

  • @jchandler1963
    @jchandler1963 6 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I feel like people don t quite get how different the world will be if so much of the population isnt working. Who are they writing advertisements to and doing the other jobs they claim will be left when no one else has jobs or could buy anything. Driving to work in a world where you are only one of the few able to, without some completely different system, would be quite a challenge considering the starving masses you would have to make it through.

  • @Kevin-jc1fx
    @Kevin-jc1fx 3 ปีที่แล้ว +16

    When singularity arises, there will be almost no limits to what machines can do. Humans will have very limited options for work.

    • @alpeshmittal3779
      @alpeshmittal3779 ปีที่แล้ว

      We might cease to exist afterwards because ASI might find human useless and root cause of many problems

  • @ggp6073
    @ggp6073 5 ปีที่แล้ว +16

    Machines would definitely get smarter than humans over time. It can be seen from all current developments(Self Driving Cars, Neural Link etc). Unless there are regulations in place, human would be reduced to dummies in this world, with no purpose.

    • @orangejuice6266
      @orangejuice6266 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      That's why we need regulations.

    • @HeraldOD
      @HeraldOD ปีที่แล้ว

      @@orangejuice6266 What are you going to regulate? if the technology exists, people are going to use it. Things are going to get automated, especially if it's cheaper. Companies won't want regulations giving them more expensive and less performant results (aka human work instead of machine work)

  • @jarlkampen8650
    @jarlkampen8650 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    This speech has, unfortunately, become obsolete. The tasks no longer have to be frequent low-volume.

  • @vijayragav8640
    @vijayragav8640 3 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    "Humans can tackle novel situations"
    Saw that in this covid pandemic !!!

    • @atharvanimbargi1503
      @atharvanimbargi1503 ปีที่แล้ว

      Is this sarcastic or are you really appreciating ?😅

  • @loyisotaki5280
    @loyisotaki5280 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    This did not age well at all, ChatGPT is writing marketing campaigns as we speak.

  • @antheaelise569
    @antheaelise569 8 ปีที่แล้ว +306

    jobs are for machines, life is for humans

    • @ChaceBonanno
      @ChaceBonanno 6 ปีที่แล้ว +45

      You're looking at all wrong. Imagine a world with no need for employment or economics.

    • @MrHoustonmichael
      @MrHoustonmichael 6 ปีที่แล้ว +27

      Life can be about creating art and enjoying it instead of jobs making others own people

    • @C3yl0
      @C3yl0 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      If humans already having some “leisure time” comes up with weird ideas imagine someone not working. The amount of walking psychos will not be enough :v

    • @chrzmaxx9140
      @chrzmaxx9140 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Yep no money great

    • @generaltony6520
      @generaltony6520 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      without a job you can't sustain your life :/

  • @dalemoore598
    @dalemoore598 6 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Think it's interesting how his graph shows the beginnings of an exponential curve but then for some reason levels off. Think he is vastly underestimating what machines will be able to do in the not so far future.

  • @bensibree-paul7289
    @bensibree-paul7289 8 ปีที่แล้ว +46

    This is nonsense. Progress is not going to be some gentle slope up to a nice steady plateau. AI will go from where it is now to more intelligent than us in what'll feel to us like an instant. It's on an exponential curve.

    • @paulhank7967
      @paulhank7967 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Have you seen the movie, The Matrix?

    • @tone8301
      @tone8301 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      I was going to say...

    • @dancingwheels8494
      @dancingwheels8494 ปีที่แล้ว

      💯 I don’t understand how people can’t get this!!

  • @bassl3647
    @bassl3647 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Bye bye to my dream to become a driver instructor.

    • @dingdong896
      @dingdong896 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      My artist job too

  • @bharatkaushal2518
    @bharatkaushal2518 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    First of all Yahli is so cute.

  • @gwho
    @gwho 8 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    what a good talk, considering it was delivered by machine

  • @yamchayaku
    @yamchayaku 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Don't expect machines to replace you anytime soon. Most people are really bad at maintaining machinery. First of all, there's really no "do-all" machine. You'd need to purchase a machine for each task, which is not cheap. Then there's maintenance, which is not going to be cheap either. Add in that they're also bad at forking up the money to replace malfunctioning parts, I wouldn't say that machinery would be more profitable than the average worker.
    If machinery was able to replace employees, all businesses would have done it by now. The reason they didn't is because most businesses don't want to fork over that kind of money or take that kind of risk.

    • @TurokAgi
      @TurokAgi 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      There's reasons why, but u only mentioned one. It'll happen as soon as the great reset is over

  • @samimas4343
    @samimas4343 8 ปีที่แล้ว +27

    machines should be there for us to work less harder and not for us to work less.

  • @Table-Top
    @Table-Top 8 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    How can a computer grade an essay (eg: english literature). How does a computer recognize ground-breaking creative writing? Or, innovative, outside-the-box thinking...?

    • @azaria5419
      @azaria5419 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      I was thinking the same thing. If a computer can accurately grade essays, it should be able to handle complex tasks. That or teachers are terrible at grading and focus more on vocabulary, sentence structure, and whether or not they originally agreed with the thesis than logic.

  • @benanderson5490
    @benanderson5490 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Surely with enough data and aggregated learning, there comes s point where there are no novel situations.

  • @BaoTran-bj8xx
    @BaoTran-bj8xx ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Chatgpt brought me here

  • @Anders01
    @Anders01 7 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Yikes, I came to think about how machine learning will move into a higher abstraction level where algorithms use already gathered machine knowledge and combine it to handle more general and novel tasks. So instead of a flattening of the exponential curve in the video it will then continue to accelerate! Just as Ray Kurzweil has predicted with his Law of Accelerating Returns. We then definitely will need something like a universal basic income pretty soon.

  • @apoctapus
    @apoctapus ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Due to advances in ML, this content is out of date and no longer accurate. But it’s amazing to see how much has changed in such a short period of time.

  • @philandros3195
    @philandros3195 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Someone made an algorithm that was able to match the grades of essays given by the teachers? Well that's impressive.. especially seeing as different teachers tend to grade the same paper differently.
    There was an experiment in Denmark (in 2012), in which two journalist-trainees wrote an essay, that (along with essays written by highschool students) were graded by twenty different teachers. The teachers were unaware of these circumstances and the essays were graded fairly, alongside other anonymous essays handed in by students. The journalist-trainees recieved everything from the highest grade, to some of the lowest grades - all depending on the teacher who graded the essay. This sparked a debate about how these kind of tests weren't completely objective, in contrast to tests given in math, physics and other natural sciences.

  • @dion789
    @dion789 8 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    I find cgp grey's discussion of this topic much more informative and realistic.

    • @niveshproag8660
      @niveshproag8660 8 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Yup. "Humans need not apply" on youtube. Covers pretty much everything on it.

  • @rsvp89
    @rsvp89 8 ปีที่แล้ว +21

    POLLUTION , POLLUTION, POLLUTION!!
    Robots do make mistakes and break down.
    PLEASE FOCUS ON MAKING HEALTHIER LIFESTYLE AND BETTER EDUCATION FOR CHILDREN

  • @lazarusblackwell6988
    @lazarusblackwell6988 2 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    Give jobs to machines and life to humans.
    Thats the way its going to be.

    • @stasianatanasov6294
      @stasianatanasov6294 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Lol since when were people with money and power ever concerned about our lives? It ain't gonna be this way for sure

  • @alejandrogutierrez9463
    @alejandrogutierrez9463 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    robots should be owned by common people not companies, that way any job that the robot performs payment will go to the owner of the robot

    • @Ed-bf3fe
      @Ed-bf3fe 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Alejandro Gutiérrez this ... is actually genius

  • @TheErickAmezcua
    @TheErickAmezcua 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Things are moving so fast, I'm hesitant about anything that's more than a few months old.

  • @anthonydejesus1966
    @anthonydejesus1966 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    All sentences should finish with the word "yet".

  • @kivancersoz2203
    @kivancersoz2203 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I think what the world governments need to do is to allocate a basic salary for all the citizens or households that can be sufficient for surviving a good life , and let the AI do most ( not all ) jobs that people are doing to earn that salary. That is the most ideal way that we can solve all the productivity and surviving problems. And the people will have more room to improve their skills and abilities in areas where they really enjoy rather than have to work to survive. ( People who have those special abilities of course will earn more money accordingly) Another benefit of this for the governments is that it would prevent the anarchy and creates more cooperative citizens)

  • @abhimat
    @abhimat 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Machines can excel at frequent, high volumes tasks. For us humans, let everyday usher in a new challenging task.

  • @WayneJohnsonZastil
    @WayneJohnsonZastil 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I love this I hope all jobs can be taken so we are all equal.

    • @LeanneVlogzFilmz
      @LeanneVlogzFilmz 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      I'd liked to see a robot replace makeup artists, both beauty and special effects artists.

    • @yyny0
      @yyny0 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      +Zebarbas the alternative is to move away from labor intensive jobs and instead focus on computationally expensive jobs, like lawyers, programmers, doctors, etc. and even creative jobs, things that computers cannot easily replace.

  • @jonesnj07
    @jonesnj07 8 ปีที่แล้ว +30

    *I literally just watched the matrix for the first time and now i'm scared*

    • @nicholasxuu
      @nicholasxuu 8 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      and there's a good chance we are already in it.

    • @Maorawrath
      @Maorawrath 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      *LOL!*

  • @Kianfox
    @Kianfox 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    All these people saying they cant wait for machines to do all our jobs... ever watch the movie WALL-E?

  • @jcc9059
    @jcc9059 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Funny he mentions copywriters. ChatGPT can now replace a copywriter.

  • @Iznenadan
    @Iznenadan ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Well... I guess that all just flew out the window...

  • @jakebruce11
    @jakebruce11 8 ปีที่แล้ว +18

    This talk in a nutshell: "Machines currently have this limitation, so they will always have this limitation."

  • @Justin-tg7xn
    @Justin-tg7xn ปีที่แล้ว +3

    As a person who come from the future. I can confirm Ai will replace us.

  • @seriaasly3297
    @seriaasly3297 8 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Audits will never be done completely by machine, some automation of grunt work but the ability to apply critical thinking to complex issues and business models are beyond what any machine can do within the next 50 years

    • @roganjoshkrishna2950
      @roganjoshkrishna2950 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Yeah, it's taken 5 years and they're already designing AI than can approach human levels of general intelligence

    • @HeraldOD
      @HeraldOD ปีที่แล้ว

      @@roganjoshkrishna2950 What's your source? The most I can think of is GPT-3, but that's just a language model. There's no reasoning behind it, it just knows how to create and complete coherent text

  • @Jobap98
    @Jobap98 8 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    It's not a long step from simple repetition, to then combination of ideas and consequently creativity. Creativity isn't iherent to humans, and machines may eventualy learn creativity. The truth is we are no good in new situations eitheir, we are good in identificating patterns (in new situations) and implementing patterns (when familiarazed with the new situation).

  • @siskens
    @siskens ปีที่แล้ว +5

    and then we had ChatGPT write us code

  • @c.eb.1216
    @c.eb.1216 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Maybe someday we'll all be managers, giving directions to AIs and overseeing them.

    • @aishie2000
      @aishie2000 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Itll probably be the other way around, the way things r going

  • @huzudesign
    @huzudesign ปีที่แล้ว +5

    This did not age well lol

  • @Loathomar
    @Loathomar 8 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Even in cases of things like marketing campaigns, most of the current work done will be done by computers and humans will simply do the final touches. Don't believe me, see the know trailer for Morgan, they had Watson do most of the leg work and just had a few people put on the final touches.

  • @jancerny8109
    @jancerny8109 8 ปีที่แล้ว +14

    "Humans can tackle novel situations..." Have you met humans? We ignore the growing environmental catastrophes of our world, we persist in neurotic emotional patterns, our artwork is mostly overwhelmingly derivative, and we get flustered in almost any new environment. Computers won't have to be particularly good to be better than us, or more cost-efficient.

    • @IndieBirdieMusic
      @IndieBirdieMusic 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      He's saying that Robots are incapable of tackling novel challenges like humans can. We are instinctively able to see problems and solve them in our day to day life. It's instinctual. You are talking about bigger problems that are VERY hard to solve for even a collective of human beings. Novel situations means day to day....

  • @faruk3431
    @faruk3431 8 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Well, doctor's are always needed.

    • @Roll587
      @Roll587 8 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Agreed. Medicine is more than diagnosis.

    • @prnsxsa
      @prnsxsa 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Doreshka What about nurses?

    • @pluto40433
      @pluto40433 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @Mark Dudley I will say that there are machines that help with the surgery. I don't actually see fucking robots walking around in the hospital. There is a podcast that elon musk was on that u probably seen that could hopefully fix any issue that may arise in the future.

  • @beepbeepimasheep237beepbee3
    @beepbeepimasheep237beepbee3 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    What would happen:
    AI takes over > If you're unlucky you get replaced by an AI > Lose your job > In debt > Eviction > Starvation > Death

  • @sh4mst0ne
    @sh4mst0ne 8 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    So, the potential jobs of the future could be marketers and advertisers? Basically, continuing the consumption cycle by selling things to people with no jobs because of automation and no money because of no jobs... sounds legit.

  • @bitesky
    @bitesky 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    so every job will be lost except marketing ones?

    • @bibhakarkumar8926
      @bibhakarkumar8926 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      diva no no marketing is also lost due to automation. Automatic robots are here that do shopping for you.

  • @georgev4616
    @georgev4616 8 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    PEACE!!!
    &
    LOVE!!!
    TO ALL!!!

  • @noway3801
    @noway3801 8 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    This is true so long as machines don't learn to deal with novel situations. 😨

    • @maianhvu8212
      @maianhvu8212 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Good point, if they have enough data to sort our the methodology /pattern of human decision making and problem solving. One day it will be able to do it, maybe in the far future but it's just a matter of time.

  • @jameslane3846
    @jameslane3846 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Art will survive as it is creativity at its core

    • @taylorsmith9629
      @taylorsmith9629 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      There is already AI paintings I’ve seen them

    • @brojakmate9872
      @brojakmate9872 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      lol lmao even

    • @C4MMU5
      @C4MMU5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Aged like milk. But I predicted this would happen, I should be famous for this

    • @nassernathan
      @nassernathan ปีที่แล้ว +1

      This did not age well 😂😂😂

    • @JTScott1988
      @JTScott1988 ปีที่แล้ว

      He’s right. It can make art but it’s very formatted and doesn’t have any creativity.

  • @SchiferlED
    @SchiferlED 8 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Get rid of minimum wage. Get rid of welfare. Get rid of social security. Increase taxes on businesses/producers. Implement UBI. Relax as automation gradually takes over and humanity is freed to do what they please.

    • @duckdumbsmartpplimnotbored5175
      @duckdumbsmartpplimnotbored5175 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      and cute.

    • @twn5858
      @twn5858 8 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Get rid of governments!

    • @spiritusinfinitus
      @spiritusinfinitus 8 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      The automation of many governmental roles is key. The current lumbering monster that is government as we know it today won't just roll over and die though, unfortunately. (The current governments require employment of a growing proportion of the population in order to hide what would otherwise be unemployment figures) Government has a vested interest for its own survival at the expense of the general population. It will be hard for humanity to wean itself off of the present governmental model, but, eventually, worthwhile.

    • @SaltVinegar2010
      @SaltVinegar2010 8 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      +Spiritus Not to mention the insane amounts of money that is wasted by governments on a daily basis. Imagine if government departments switched to open source software instead of paying ridiculous licensing costs for proprietary software. That is just one example of millions saved. Government just wastes money to help keep people in jobs when it should be the opposite approach that is needed.

    • @duckdumbsmartpplimnotbored5175
      @duckdumbsmartpplimnotbored5175 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      bs. Im not gonna let myself be ruled by a computer

  • @activnite9493
    @activnite9493 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    It's going to be a hackers playground.

  • @gleni3000
    @gleni3000 8 ปีที่แล้ว +68

    this will create a hunger games type society. small amount of people with everything, most people with nothing

    • @duckdumbsmartpplimnotbored5175
      @duckdumbsmartpplimnotbored5175 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      I will be Josh. if there was someone named Josh

    • @billymcdream6305
      @billymcdream6305 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      This is today, but I believe The Earth is slowly going to be like German, England

    • @str8edgeLb
      @str8edgeLb 8 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      not if you revamp the '*world-money-societal-system*' instead of working for *profit. financial gain*, choose out of passion, enjoyment, morale enhancing, *gain fulfilment* from the *task, itself*

    • @unvergebeneid
      @unvergebeneid 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Sorry for being blunt but you either don't read enough or you're quite young if Hunger Games is the closest dystopia that comes to mind.

    • @Lapusso650
      @Lapusso650 8 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Dude. You're calling automaton bad for society.... Automation is FOR US you clueless twit

  • @hardworker424
    @hardworker424 8 ปีที่แล้ว

    The things he cited will help create tools for those with those jobs but not replace them. There are many jobs that will be eliminated with advances in technology. Right now for manufacturing humans are still cheaper for most jobs. In the US a lot of manufactured products are made over seas. When robotic manufacturing is cheap enough the products will be made in the US again.

  • @Chris-kw7nx
    @Chris-kw7nx 8 ปีที่แล้ว +34

    Machines won't be able to replace human workers in the fields of artistic expression and social services. So fields in creative writing, music, or teaching cannot be mimicked as they require the human touch and intimacy.

    • @MrTortoiseshell
      @MrTortoiseshell 8 ปีที่แล้ว +34

      Machines can already write music that cannot be distinguished from music written by humans.

    • @Chris-kw7nx
      @Chris-kw7nx 8 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      +JJ Larson But can they illicit emotion by singing it? In a live performance humans sing with the effect in bringing out various emotions. In teaching humans can recognize and respond to human emotions to manage behavioral issues and meeting children's needs.

    • @WayneJohnsonZastil
      @WayneJohnsonZastil 8 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      And social robots are on the rise!

    • @Chris-kw7nx
      @Chris-kw7nx 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      +JJ Larson Sorry about the awful grammer my phone's autocorrect is bullshit.

    • @MrTortoiseshell
      @MrTortoiseshell 8 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      +Christian Gonzales Not yet but as machines continually get more advanced who knows what other "uniquely human" traits and behaviors they will be able to replicate.

  • @crazieeez
    @crazieeez 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This is like saying everyone will die. The more important question is when. I don't want people to predict 50 years from now, nor 20 years from now. I want people to predict next year or 4 weeks from now. I've heard so many people talk hyperbole since the 1950's, yet tangible economic benefits are little.

  • @NateandEli
    @NateandEli ปีที่แล้ว +6

    This is dated. In 2023, AI can already do the bulk of work for marketing campaigns.

    • @notDundi
      @notDundi ปีที่แล้ว

      Breaking news: a video from 2016 is dated. I repeat: the video is dated. This isn't a drill.

    • @brojakmate9872
      @brojakmate9872 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@notDundi This but unironically

  • @FrappuccinoAlfredo
    @FrappuccinoAlfredo ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I'm glad I've had a good life

  • @ericpa06
    @ericpa06 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    People who argue that machines won't be able to automate task X are either lying or don't understand technology.

  • @prathammishra4945
    @prathammishra4945 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    A UBI will have to be implemented to tackle this problem

  • @ionitacatalinconstantin4842
    @ionitacatalinconstantin4842 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I`m a naval engineer. I go onboard merchand ships and do maintanaince work while sailing. Let s see a machine do that.

    • @darleyt1
      @darleyt1 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      good point, you always need people who can fix the machines. Self repairing mechanics is a thing tho.

  • @joso1195
    @joso1195 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Gpt4 is a better laborer in most fields than the bottom half of humans are in those fields. What about gpt 7 five years from now. It’s time to get serious about planning for a post work world underpinned by AI

  • @lara_alarab
    @lara_alarab 6 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Excellent Talk... I particularly loved your intro and how you linked it with the topics to be explored and at the end concluded with a very impactful msg. The examples and evidence were very helpful to add to the credibility of your info. Short talk yet well organized and indeed reached the intended goal. Well done Anthony!

  • @cocacooler7
    @cocacooler7 8 ปีที่แล้ว

    The speaker mentioned an article published in 2013. Does anyone have a link to it?

  • @halolosers
    @halolosers 8 ปีที่แล้ว +25

    When AI is perfected we won't have anything.

    • @nostalgia5342
      @nostalgia5342 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      We already have reinforcement learning now for novel situations

  • @29DPT
    @29DPT ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Will software engineers be replaced by robots, even though it’s a creative highly thinking field and how do I prevent myself losing a job to a robot

    • @matsopelle
      @matsopelle ปีที่แล้ว

      Yes they will, because programming languages are more structured than anything else really. Easy for an AI to learn. You can't really prevent it.

  • @TheNeilDarby
    @TheNeilDarby 8 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    Machines will give people the leisure to take psychedelics and study zen and Vedanta.

    • @simo947
      @simo947 8 ปีที่แล้ว

      yeah quantum computers can grow arms and legs because they work by manipulating atomic structures (?)

    • @alexandert696
      @alexandert696 7 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      i like working actually.

    • @jaguarandi2
      @jaguarandi2 7 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Who will afford machines? Will the government hand them out?

  • @hikodzu
    @hikodzu 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Just limit machine automation already if you don't want it to replace jobs. Only allows it in certain areas/tasks only

    • @rgonzalo511
      @rgonzalo511 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Why? This is an opportunity for humanity to rid itself of work

    • @LouSaydus
      @LouSaydus ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@rgonzalo511 No, this is an opportunity for the rich and powerful to rid themselves of serfs, aka you and me. The real world isn't a disney movie, if they didnt need us to fuel their lavish lifestyles, we'd be exterminated tomorrow.

  • @hbnworkstation8713
    @hbnworkstation8713 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Time for universal basic income!

  • @niveshproag8660
    @niveshproag8660 8 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    3:21 wait that's all? I'm not so sure.

    • @zenoblazenkv
      @zenoblazenkv 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Woah we have the same first name!

  • @ethnicalbert
    @ethnicalbert 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    this is unsurprisingly rather out of date now

  • @メキシコ人-k2v
    @メキシコ人-k2v 8 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    In other words, the gap between the rich and the poor will grow tremendously.

  • @norbs993
    @norbs993 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    This didn't age well

  • @nickiminajisthequeenofrap7077
    @nickiminajisthequeenofrap7077 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Okay so which jobs will we be losing? I'm glad I watched this at 2x speed...

  • @Static12567
    @Static12567 6 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Well this has aged like milk…

  • @gytispranskunas4984
    @gytispranskunas4984 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Most of the jobs that will be "lost" to AI is absolutely miserable anyway, and huge part of those jobs don't even have a purpose. Let's be real to ourselves.

    • @Art_Svet
      @Art_Svet ปีที่แล้ว

      I also do agree with you and wonder why those jobs weren't automated. Instead of importing illegal immigrants, wouldn't it be better to automate the most dangerous and dirty jobs and only bring in people with a higher specialization?

    • @JTScott1988
      @JTScott1988 ปีที่แล้ว

      They beat starvation and forever homelessness

    • @JTScott1988
      @JTScott1988 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Art_Svet I’m not an illegal immigrant and all I can work is fast food

  • @winter1957
    @winter1957 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Wait so if robots are gonna be doing all the work, who's gonna be left to buy all the stuff that they make?

  • @soumojitguhamajumder3143
    @soumojitguhamajumder3143 7 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    His rationale is , machines can't seemingly infer a new concept from two different concepts. However, it only be a matter of time, machine would be able to do that too. Till then Strategy consulting won't get affected by ML.

    • @boneyards4369
      @boneyards4369 ปีที่แล้ว

      I agree and think his ration is flawed. Often people with experience solve novel problems by recognizing patterns and parallels from past experiences. In fact I think machines will end up being far superior at this and be able to make connections that humans cannot.

    • @Daniel_WR_Hart
      @Daniel_WR_Hart ปีที่แล้ว

      I used Bing Chat to come up with jokes about various combinations of famous people, and while the jokes are usually lame, they sometimes make a lot more sense than I thought initially when I ask it to explain the joke, and it actually can make connections between seemingly different concepts