Good analysis. Simple but insightful. Really hit me with the “I know better” line because I’m struggling to swallow my pride and stick to chalk this year. Few comments: 1. Mistake wise, I tend to fall into the trap of taking 12 and 13 seeds that came into the tournament hot or off really good years. In this year, JMU McNeese GCU Samford and Charleston all stick out. Last year I remember ORU being a trendy one and they were never competitive. Especially when they play against what I think are weaker teams, but over time I’ve learned that those end up being traps for a number of reasons. Maybe because a team got used to playing a certain certain style or dictating game flow in conference, and the step up in talent and athleticism is just too much. Scouting could also be a factor, as it’s pretty easy to get tendencies and find areas to attack for teams that beat up on inferior teams. The common denominator with Princeton, St. Peter’s, ORU, and others seemed to be that they didn’t necessarily dominate in the regular season but could cause matchup problems against certain teams. That’s important to know but not easy to anticipate. 2. I like fading the momentum teams that are coming off conference tournament wins, specifically the major ones. I know there’s an ATS trend in first matchups, but Iowa State, Auburn, and Illinois could be landmine spots. To the point y’all mentioned about “checking the odds” it could be handy to avoid teams that’s odds fell significantly as a result of their championship week performance. 3. Any considerations for fouls or officiating? Most upsets involve foul trouble, so I’m curious if any of the sharps ever consider this as a point of volatility in the models.
The Purdue point doesn’t stand because they literally just pulled a classic Purdue move by getting upset in their conference tournament. They play an outdated style of basketball and will lose to well coached, good 3pt shooting team.
Conference tournament? Did #1(seed) Houston win Big 12 tourney, #1 (seed) UNC win ACC, #2 seed league champs in Tennessee or Arizona win SEC or PAC12? It is not a Purdue thing, is a a nationwide thing. Your point doesn't stand because you are localizing it to Purdue.
Hey Jack, is there any specific stats you like to look at other than the typical ppg, BPI rank, etc to help determine an expected winner? Perhaps things like simply defense rank vs offense rank?
There are no shortcuts when it comes to handicapping tournament games. Especially in situations where teams have never faced each other and have very few common opponents. Typically teams that are in the Top 20 of adj offense and adj defense in the KenPom ratings do well though.
Hey Captain Jack! Can you do a in depth video teaching me how to apply what you did to yrfi nrfi? Or point me in the direction to a video you already did on this subject. I would like to narrow down my focus on that and learn now as basketball season comes to a close, that way I can be prepared when baseball kicks into high gear!Please and thank you! Your content is very helpful!
That’s a great video idea. YRFI/NRFI is one bet that almost everyone looks to the wrong side to find an edge. You’re better off betting YRFI almost always.
@@Unabated thanks man I appreciate your response! Any favorite ballparks you like to apply the yrfi to? I think that might be a good place for me to start 🤩
Ballparks will be priced into the total, which then gets priced into the first inning line. What you want to look for are pitchers who aren't fast starters.
Good analysis. Simple but insightful. Really hit me with the “I know better” line because I’m struggling to swallow my pride and stick to chalk this year. Few comments:
1. Mistake wise, I tend to fall into the trap of taking 12 and 13 seeds that came into the tournament hot or off really good years. In this year, JMU McNeese GCU Samford and Charleston all stick out. Last year I remember ORU being a trendy one and they were never competitive. Especially when they play against what I think are weaker teams, but over time I’ve learned that those end up being traps for a number of reasons. Maybe because a team got used to playing a certain certain style or dictating game flow in conference, and the step up in talent and athleticism is just too much. Scouting could also be a factor, as it’s pretty easy to get tendencies and find areas to attack for teams that beat up on inferior teams.
The common denominator with Princeton, St. Peter’s, ORU, and others seemed to be that they didn’t necessarily dominate in the regular season but could cause matchup problems against certain teams. That’s important to know but not easy to anticipate.
2. I like fading the momentum teams that are coming off conference tournament wins, specifically the major ones. I know there’s an ATS trend in first matchups, but Iowa State, Auburn, and Illinois could be landmine spots. To the point y’all mentioned about “checking the odds” it could be handy to avoid teams that’s odds fell significantly as a result of their championship week performance.
3. Any considerations for fouls or officiating? Most upsets involve foul trouble, so I’m curious if any of the sharps ever consider this as a point of volatility in the models.
Still went for Kentucky losing 😂
I can get a lot wrong, but I got this
The Purdue point doesn’t stand because they literally just pulled a classic Purdue move by getting upset in their conference tournament. They play an outdated style of basketball and will lose to well coached, good 3pt shooting team.
Conference tournament? Did #1(seed) Houston win Big 12 tourney, #1 (seed) UNC win ACC, #2 seed league champs in Tennessee or Arizona win SEC or PAC12? It is not a Purdue thing, is a a nationwide thing. Your point doesn't stand because you are localizing it to Purdue.
People forget we’re the second best 3 point shooting team in the NATION read the facts please
@@baileym4708 you listed a bunch of schools that consistently make it further in March than Purdue. Thanks.
Hey Jack, is there any specific stats you like to look at other than the typical ppg, BPI rank, etc to help determine an expected winner? Perhaps things like simply defense rank vs offense rank?
There are no shortcuts when it comes to handicapping tournament games. Especially in situations where teams have never faced each other and have very few common opponents. Typically teams that are in the Top 20 of adj offense and adj defense in the KenPom ratings do well though.
hi jack, following from Kenya. Any wisdom on NBA first quarter?
Take the tie
@@g-mode5047😭
Yup nowadays everyone puts Ringo Starr and guests in the background on their videos
Can I run Unabated on a surface pro, or do I have to have a laptop?
Yes, Unabated.com is all web-based. A Surface Pro would be great.
Hey Captain Jack! Can you do a in depth video teaching me how to apply what you did to yrfi nrfi? Or point me in the direction to a video you already did on this subject. I would like to narrow down my focus on that and learn now as basketball season comes to a close, that way I can be prepared when baseball kicks into high gear!Please and thank you! Your content is very helpful!
That’s a great video idea. YRFI/NRFI is one bet that almost everyone looks to the wrong side to find an edge. You’re better off betting YRFI almost always.
@@Unabated thanks man I appreciate your response! Any favorite ballparks you like to apply the yrfi to? I think that might be a good place for me to start 🤩
Ballparks will be priced into the total, which then gets priced into the first inning line. What you want to look for are pitchers who aren't fast starters.
Do you see teams with a more balanced point distribution win more or a team clear top players?
Purdue gained some experience with the loss . UNC #1 🎉🎶🔥
Here’s a tip, stop picking the top seed that’ll eventually get upsetted
Ive been putting together 10 to 25$ bets on NCState women and men together every round with big returns
This dude def picks Purdue 🤣⛹️🗑️