Sir John Curtice on LBC: Nigel Farage could cost Tories up to 60 seats
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ย. 2024
- Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said Nigel Farage’s decision to take over as leader of Reform UK will deal a significant blow to the Conservatives, potentially costing them as many as 60 seats.
People are not falling for it this time; when it comes to the Cons, they blew it and they only have themselves to blame.
No. The Tories lost the seats by doing the exact opposite of what they was told to do.
Averaging 11%, what a crock it's at least 16% and rising.
@@maccagrabme He's a Sir. You mustn't argue.
@@maccagrabmeReally? Maybe in your mind. In reality it has gone from 11% to 12% since Farage announced he was standing in Clacton. They’ll win no seats and give Labour an even bigger majority! 😂🤣😂
@@ezioauditore3128 🤣😂😅
@@maccagrabme oh fo course, numpty no brain maccagrabme on YT knows far better than a man who has spent most of hid adult life studying these things...run along now cretin
If people want things to continue as they are, vote Tory
And for even worse vote Labour....reform party is the only realistic alternative.
Yes Reform is the only way I think they will win the election after the way the government has treated the public on excess death and the lock down tory and the Labour are responsible.
Or Labour. 🥀
@@markmorrid8144 Voting Reform UK would be far worse.
@@Sean-yx6en The left have Stockholm syndrome, you need counciling .
Well why not, The Tories are doing nothing with them and they are rarely occupied
Then the Tories should have tried to do what it said on the tin. Their voters are conservative, that was the clue. They've done it to themselves and now inevitably will seek to blame someone else.
The Tories pandered to racists , transphobes, homophobes and billionaires who don't care about the cost of living crisis, they've allowed privately owned energy companies to use the invasion of Ukraine as a reason to fleece consumers and they've allowed privately owned water companies to dump raw sewage in our rivers and seas with impunity and they claim to be Patriotic, no way they've betrayed the British public
what it said on the ballot was in or out and thats all
All blame goes to the tories
NO - THE TORIES LOST THE SEATS BY THEIR OWN MAKING ........... BUGGER-ALL TO DO WITH FARAGE.
FRAPP-ARAGE
Farage is making it worse for the Tories
Lots to do with farage. I hate labour
I 'len't my vote to the Conservatives at the last GE to see Brexil through, but never again!
Are you going to vote Reform to get Brixit finally done
@@MichaelGreenLagoswhat does that look like?
@BoyeeSmudger I don't know its not happened yet
@@MichaelGreenLagos OK, fair, but what would you like it to be?
Clown
Was going to spoil my ballot paper, not now 😀
Me too!
I respect your original intention. It’s the people who stay home that frustrate me. Spoiling your ballot if it’s the only option is far better for our democracy than just staying home.
(They have no idea what’s about to hit them....🥳)
@@shelleyscloud3651 why? i can bin paper at home, spoiling your ballot paper is exactly the same.
Vote Reform because of the way the government treated the public with excess deaths and the lock down and forcing people to take the vaccine
Nor me Return all the way
This will be the first General Election that I have not voted Tory.. Just what did they expect. Farage will do very very well.
Farige wont get any power to do anything and neither will Reform Ltd.
They will win seats , youlle see
Farage will not win the seat he will do very very bad.
They wont win one seat.
Hope springs eternal.
Don't be put off from voting Reform folks, it is not a' wasted' vote at all. If everyone who voted for Brexit were to support Reform now, - just imagine that. Dare to dream......
“Folks”.
I bet you call women “love” and proudly tell anyone who’ll listen that you drive a diesel car.
That’s you isn’t it.
Thing is mate, everyone I know who voted brexit, family, friends, workmates, they have all changed their minds now an now want to rejoin, that's at least 15 votes lost from 8 years ago
@@dave13dc
What an immature post?
Why are you so bitter?
I know.
Your a Liebour supporter 😂😂😂😂
@@TableTopWolf1984
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Really!
@@TableTopWolf1984 That is incredible, you are the only person I have heard say that everyone they know has now changed their mind. Are you a Leftist troll?
For the record, Us Reform voters know full well that our vote will likely end up giving Labour more seats. We aren't voting in fear, we are voting for what we believe in, win, lose, or whatever.
Totally agree.
Yep
The tory's have lost this election though their own stupidity. If REFORM stood down the tories would still lose. Reform is the future without them you only have more of the same.
I dont have a problem with Reform as long as you are honest. Reform Ltd isnt a political party - it's a company. Reform policies would turn the NHS over to private companies - and lets be honest - Reform is basically the BNP in a suit with the fascist jackboots tucked behind the door.
Correct, if support is strong it will help break the age old 2 party system.
Poor old Iain and his LBC now gutted that Farage is going to smash the tories and damage Starmer
Agreed....that is exactly what is going to happen. 👍
Let's face it the choice between Farrage and the Eton common room mafia isn't going to change the turn out for any of the other parties moderate conservatives won't turn vote for Conservative or Farrage.
Labour will gain a massive number of seats, SNP will still have a substantial number of seats but reduced due to their own internal issues and Labour's looney left being brought to heel.
@andrewwmacfadyen6958 There is also the many people that won't bother to vote.....and I have a feeling that number is going to be quite high.
Farige wont damage Labour - he's just another lying ex banker who wants cash and popularity - unfortunately he's just Trumps skidmark.
@@chriswilde7246 yeah and a very good reason to bin first past the post as it’s the norm that 60% of us don’t vote for the party who wins, meaning a vast majority actually didnt a meaningful vote and pointless for millions to vote as some constituencies are sorted before the election. We now have “None of the above” leading in every poll yet we know a very unpopular party will win. Is that fair, is it democracy, NO. I believe Reform will get millions of votes and by many who would stay at home until Farage landed. It will be a huge protest vote …
Nigel fararge will win Clapton with a very large vote
at the 8th time of asking?
Clapton is in Diane Abbott's constituency! I think you mean Clacton.
@@environm3ntalist549 so what! what a pointless childish comment.
@@111111877 Well Farige was beaten by a man in a Dolphin suit last time BOT
@@mustrumridcully3853 So what. Very childish irrelevant comment.
You cannot talk about Farage's influence on the Tory vote without talking about Galloway's influence on Labour.
The big difference is that UK media refuses to give a platform to Galloway but is only too keen to roll out the red carpet for Farage despite Galloway already being an MP and Reform UK haveing no MP that was directly elected (not switched from Tories).
@@jamesprivet The way Galloway operates he does not need the MSM. Many of the people that will vote for him do not even read or speak English.
Two self publicists, with huge egos difference is Farrage taps into the same small minded xenophobia and hatred Mosley did.
Possibly because the media are leftist in inclination and thus happy to stick it to the Tories. They don't want to show all the fractures happening within the labour party. Again acting as propagandists.
Galloway has zip influence on Labour. They are still Tory Lite despite him.
As already said, the tories lost their seats by their own incompetence or, perhaps more likely, deliberate.
If you want change, the only way to vote is Reform. Both Tory and Labour have a history of making election promises they have no intention of keeping once elected. Lets break the Tory Labour repetitive cycle. Reform can't be any worse, but they have every possibility to be a lot better.
Is that all I was hoping he would cost the Torres a lot more seats I don’t care who wins the election as long Rishi Sunak is out
I was not going to vote, just applied online.....REFORM x
Arise Sir Nigel Farage x
Farage will lose.
A Vote For REFORM is A Vote For BRITAIN NIGEL FOR PRIME MINISTER VOTE REFORM UK
What made you decide to support fascism?
Tiny mind…huge mistakes. Well done
@@rorysparshott4223 Silly boy. You clearly do not know what you are writing .Oh! could it be you are one of those desperate TROLLS.
What a sad day when shysters like Farage can get support
Reform Ltd - Not a political party. Farige is a skidmark and a BNP member in a suit.
I don’t like the way Nigel looks, I don’t like the way Nigel talks.
But I do like what he says & Reform is getting my vote.
Reform Ltd - they arent a party, they are a company. No need to follow the rules then.
Since it's mostly lies , be careful
Farage is a grifter he does not care about you.
I don’t give a toss about that as I do not see anything at all in Labour or the Tories that should be copied. What I want is to see people in politics who do their best to achieve what they promise. We haven’t seen much of that for a long time.
@@robturvey9156 not since Himmler
I looked at the figures for over the last year or so myself. There has in reality been no swing to Labour as their figures during local elections for labour were actually down. In my view a swing should be about capturing votes and it didn't happen. It's not about who votes what, it's about who couldn't be bothered as there is nothing to vote for. I've spoken to a number of people who have given up voting and they are a mix of those have voted Labour, Conservative, and Lib Dem in the past. Every single one of them I've spoken to have said now Nigel Farage is standing they are now going to vote and vote Reform UK. I always take my right to vote seriously and have and will always vote. When Nigel Farage said he was going to Run Reform UK finally it was the breath of fresh air needed. If the vile evil woke left and some on the right who hate this Country shivel up and self destruct over that news in their own hate nothing could be better. When Conservatives tell us that a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour. My reply to that is don't you dare blame us. It's up to you to give us actual reasons to vote for you in the first place, you wouldn't be coming out with such a pathetic statement. Labour is no better. Bleating on about the past 14 or so years that we are fully aware of because believe it or not we've actually lived it. Pity they couldn't prattle on about the future which is what really matters. Lib Dems, Greens, etc are a nothing. As for Scotland it would be great if we didn't have to put up with their never ending whinging SNP. They screw up yet everything is everyone elses fault especially if you're English. Would love it if their vote crashed. For me they've all left it too late to be trusted. Seeing Farage coming on and destroying the media with straight talking was an absolute joy to watch. So pleased that finally I know like so many others what I'm now voting for. When you get those that say they might not win any seats. My honest answer to that is the other Parties have had their chance. Even if they were honest enough to give us honest bad news that would of been fine as honesty is important as something to deal with. Now I've gone beyond the point and seriously couldn't care less. Reform UK is going to get my vote.
You will be over 60 and voted for Brexit. Most of those older people have already died, say goodbye to your friends, they probably wont be around too much longer. The younger generation will vote differently and take us back towards Europe.
I honestly was not going to vote i am now Farage is the Main reason 😷
So you live in Clacton do you? ...the level of fuckwittery among voters is incredible
Farage will lose.
Sure I believe you, lad. Anyway all the best to you, Mrs tc 1fq6mb1e and the whole tc 1fq6mb1e family yeah
I've never not voted for over 30+years & I've never understood people who don't vote,it's the only way to be heard,doing nothing then complaining months later when it affects them personally in their lives..
Use your votes people,it's your voice!
Absolute Bollock's 😷
Our Country needs a change from the same old Tories and Labour Party, the two traditional parties never listen to the silent majority, they do what they want once elected.
Illegal Immigrants being treated better than true British residents.
Proof? Evidence?
@@AuntyEsther
Don't be ridiculous!
For goodness sake - 🤦♂️🤷♂️
People dont need proof or evidence for spouting opinions
@@AuntyEsther Wake up the media has been exposing it for years.
Vikings, Saxons, Normans - all were immigrants. The Royal Family are German FFS - Richard the Lionheart was French and spent no longer than 3 weeks here. You're a mongrel with delusions of adequacy and a racist too. Crawl back under your rock.
In the 1920s Labour replaced the Liberal party in the UK
It seems possible that Reform will replace the Tories
Only if people vote for what they believe in instead of the 2 cheeks of the same WEF backside.
Not this election but I think we’re going to be looking at a whole new political landscape by the next. This is just the start, the worm has turned! 👏🙏
Nice symmetry
The only problem is that Reform appeal strongly to the oldest voters, and are very very weak with people under 60. So Reform would struggle to survive for the long term. At some point the right will have to realise younger people are the future.
@@khar12d8 Islam is the future mate.
Curtice banging on about the local elections. What was the turnout, mate? Reform will hopefully pull off some surprises.
Was it 17% who actually voted for Sadiq? That to me says the vote there was null and void.
Look at the consistent poling for the last 18 months. It has barely changed - Reform are just the BNP in suits.
Reform cannot and will not win.
@@zog97xy Of course not. At least not yet. That's not the plan.
If you don't want the Tories in power, vote Reform. If you don't want Labour in power, vote Reform. If you don't want to vote at all, that is a vote for Labour.
Sunak should never have gone hard after the Reform demographic, this is going to really blow up in his face.
100% 🎯
When did he go hard after the reform demographic?
He did nothing for reformites.
If he did chase the reform vote he would have deported illegal immigrants, he would have stopped the Gaza and BLM protests, he would have stopped the Euro human rights court being obeyed.
Ex labour supporters are now vowing to vote Reform.
Gooood.
Oh look a lying tory...how ...common
Makes sense. Nobody has been more betrayed than the working class who Labour pretended to represent.
Baffles me how left wing believers and supports can suddenly vote for a right wing political party, run by ex-Tory members disillusioned by Europe, and think they can make their lives better.
No they are not
The tories have simply fluttered away the huge mandate they were given to get brexit done but giving the people the illusion that we have left all the while leaving the door wide open for us to return
We can't return. We don't meet the Copenhagen Criteria by a long way. That's a minimum to apply for membership. Then all of the EU members have to agree 1 nay and it's over. We should know we helped draw up the rules to keep it a closed shop.
Don't be turkeys voting for Xmas people because that's what your going to be if you vote Labour and Conservative.
Vote reform party if you want your country back.
How will reform give me my country back? I e-mailed my local calndidate on what he would do regarding my top 3 issues and he still ahs not responded. I dont think he has a clue.
back from where?
@@edwardbernthal160 That sound like a typical troll question.
Reform are LOSERS
@@111111877 Reform will lose.
Giveover Mr. Curtice . Farage will win the Clacton seat hands down !
Reform UK and George Galloway's party could surprise us all. Labour will win the GE, no doubt, but, it may not be with such a big majority as everyone is being led to believe
Labour went from 1-7 to 1-50 in the betting after Farage announced he's running.
George Galloway will dent Labour. Anyone but the cheek of the same arse
I won't be satisfied with anything more than 60 Conservatives in the next parliament.
I'm watchful of any tory rats trying to join Reform. 99% of them, I wouldn't trust.
Zero seats for the Tories! Clear them out...
@@neillaverty4042 I'd like to see some humble pie for five years before they disappear completely.
ONLY 60 . IT SHOULD BE ALL SEATS .
The people are sick and tired of the 2 “main” parties being both the same. Reform is a breathe of fresh air and care for the people!
It’s the only way to vote in my view.
Both main parties blind support for the eu has inevitably made them the same.
Reform are the foetid skid mark of fascist policies of the 1930 in an expnesive suit.
I think Nigel will get the Clacton seat
He wont.
Does Claction really want a parasite?
We need change lets give Nigel a chance
Let's not.
its an easy NO from me the mans a grifter nothing else its not even a real political party!
Look you dim witted fucktard...hje conned you into giving up rights by voting for Brexit...rights by the way he still has since he holds a German passport, now he wants you to vote to give up more rights...he'd destroy the NHS and crash the pound as well as removing the UK form a treaty they wrote...the ECHR
I cannot imagine anything worse then allowing Farage even a foot in the door.
@@TheHoveHeretic So you like the corrupt status quo.
Why is Ian Dale back on LBC? I thought he had quit to run as an MP? Sure, he gave up running, but does he just slide back into his old job? Eugh.
No experts
Yes, why go to a dentist when your mate down the pub can do it with pliers - idiot.
I hope Nigel wins 🏆 🙏 I believe it will help Britain 🇬🇧
He will lose
GOOD
Yes yes yes sure.
Make Britain Great Again (MBGA)
BYE BYE TO them
What does that mean?
Unless he does to Reform what he did to UKIP.
He will. That's the thing with grifters as opposed to grafters
Having just returned from two weeks in Japan. The politicians since 1945 should hold their heads in shame. I was staggered by the infrastructure and cleanliness. Not as much as a matchstick on the ground anywhere. Over 1000 bullet trains on the go through the day. Trains and buses on time. If one minute late . An apology is made. We are a third world country in comparison. Which means I will never vote for the three parties ever again
Reform are the only party that actually care about our great country and the people in it. Vote Reform UK 🇬🇧
They care about getting 4 millionaires in to office so they can start milking the system, the other people running for Reform have to pay every thing them selves lol its Facebook posts calling brown people groomers, I get maybe 6 of them a day come through
bollocks
Reform / BNP - vote to put the fascits back in power. My grandad fought in France to stop them the last time.
@@anglonorse2943 nice 👍
I couldn't be bothered to listen to it all, but did Curtis compare the present polling with Ukip in 2016? If not he should have.
No they haven't, as they can't, because their are millions who refuse to engage in the political system so do you know what they do ? They divide the silent majority between the last election share 🤣🤣🤣
Wherever I read the articles, I can’t see anybody backing the Conservatives
IAn Dale, the briefest Tory candidate - binned from Tunbridge Wells in a few hours.
Labour and Liberals have split left of centre votes between themselves against the Tories who had the Right of centre more or less themselves if the Right is split the Tory seats will tumble even if Labour drop in polls.
Sorry you are wrong the modern tory part is very left of center hence labour and tory is none as the uni-party.
John Curtice phoning in from his cloakroom, lmao. Doesn't he have an office?
Er...how about "The Tories could cost the Tories up to 60 seats"?
vote reform, conservative and labour are the same anyway
Liar liar pants on fire, what's new with the GOP Tories.
As Farage said, now a vote for the Tories is a vote for Starmer.
Great
Voting ConLab to keep ConLab out is exactly why the country is in the mess it's in.
So what....u got brexit wrong didn't you...everyone I know people voting reform..your stuck in your bubble..we've had enough of these traitors
My Grandfather fought against people like Mosely and Farige in the last war - the language they use is the same.
*_RYSHY_MUST_RESYGN_*
FARAGE's REFORM[ATION]....[like TURKEYS PRAYING for CHRISTMAS]....
Brexit 17.5 million votes , last ukip 4, million votes , reform with FARAGE millions ,,
If you want Labour, vote Tories, if you want Tories, vote labour if you want change vote Reform.
Good.
England has the strange habbit of producing someone that is so needed.Churchill,Nelson, Wellingtom Thatcher etc. and now Farage. This is our last chance to save the England that we all love.
So very true.
I loved easy european access, but old people took it away for their selfish reasons. Churchill commited genocide, Thatcher killed manufacturing and is the current cause of many of the problems we have - like a lack of housing. Farige needs to sod off somewhere, but he likes attention. My Grandfather fought in the last war to stop people like Farige and Mosely. The language is the SAME.
So the Tories could end up with -32 seats....that's a first. No seats..no waffling in the commons...no calling Stockton on tees a 'sh*thole'...no more VIP contract lanes for Tory MP's....well looks like the country will have to get used to the Tories being in the political wilderness.....oh..what's the word I was looking for.......YIPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeee..
Ah. I see the Russians are back in the comments section again. Just as they were with the referendum :). Vote Farage, vote Trump, vote Moscow :).
Fragmentation of right Labour on course for historic V-victory thanks Nigel Leave comments no censorship.
It's impossible to vote if not registered to vote.
There's about 8 million people not registered to vote.
Tuesday 18 June 2024 is the final day that people can be registered to vote in the general election on Thursday 4 July 2024.
There's about 2.5 million people who are registered to vote who don't have valid Photo ID or Voter Authority Certificate or Anonymous Electors Document.
I’m in Torfaen and will be voting Reform!
Don’t be surprised if old Tory and the disgruntled find it a motivation to kick the status quo like in the Brexit election.
It will Definitely be Farrrrrrrr MORE
than this!!!!
Lets not get carried away. The seat projections show mostly zero seats for Farage & ReformUK, and the highest is 3 seats out of 650. LibDems are forecast to get 30-70 seats and could beat the Conservatives into 3rd place.
Reform just won just 2 local council seats nationally in the local elections this May and have nothing in devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales , Mayors or Police Commisioners or Peers.
In 2023 net migration was 685,000 according to ONS figures.
Whatever your thoughts are about immigration the government are simply not planning for this level of migration, instead they keep claiming next year it will be in the 10's of thousands and it never is.
The end result of this is huge pressures put on housing, health care and infrastructure and it's relentless, year after year after year..
Not worth much compared with John Curtice but my prediction:
Reform will cost the Tories dozens of seats leading to a big Labour majority. Reform will only manage to get a couple of MPs. Farage will then do a Donald Trump, join the Tories and become the Tory leader after being welcomed by the Tory grass roots The Tory Party will become an alt right populist party. The Tories are practical, unprincipled survivors!
technically Labour voters should vote tory..they are hardcore labour.
Love the way people are theorising about why Farage is standing this time. The answer, it seems to me, is plain enough. It's because he can, and because - in doing so - he wreaks havoc on the election. Farage lives for the sense of power he gets from being, however tenuously, however ephemerally, a mover and a shaker.
Someone might be able to help on this. Tory voters tend to be older voters and younger voters tend not to be Tory voters. Much of the increase in population (i.e. immigrants and babies) do not have a vote. Is the natural Tory voter base declining?
Is he suggesting that the voters at local elections choose the same Party/ candidates at the General Election. No chance.
Why does the UK persist with the most primitive form of voting (FPTP) that there is?
#ZeroSeats
Has Dale lost his set already?
What set?
Does early election say anything about the health of the king later in the year
And the sun could turn into a beach ball. Doubt it'll happen.
Curtis almost presenting his eulogy for the Tory ideology
Curtis WHAT A Omeba !!
Professor sir John Curtis will be the star of the election
Farage first ruins the country with Brexit.
And now ruins The Tories.
P.S. UKIP's reported candidate policy just announced indicates an even stronger potential result for Reform UK.
Not a chance.
Not the same. Labour more militant
Fool of the week Dale is back! The man has no shame.
How is Iain Dale back at LBC?
Anything to sink the lying Tories!
I wish I had a crystal balls good as all the experts . .
Wonderful to hear someone talking complete horlocks
If you have nothing useful to say better to say nothing.
So there is an upside to Farage. 🤔
60 seats we have a cock-eyed optimist here
If you want to try and make a difference, even if you never vote again after this election, just do it this one time and vote Reform. You never know what it could achieve.
Reform are losers!
Interesting Times.
He’s got my vote
If this guy was in the studio, I’d be surprised if Iain Dale didn’t try to wrestle him.
He has a penchant for manhandling older smaller men.