What Will Happen with Tesla Next Year?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ส.ค. 2023
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This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
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I had 20 stocks when I started stock investing 2.5 years ago with Tesla being 80% of that portfolio. Now I have almost 19,300 Shares all in Tesla and 0 shares in the other stocks, I have sold every one of those other holdings. I believe Tesla is not one company but more like 10 companies under the Tesla umbrella all helping each other and all at the beginning of their own "S" Curves! I believe FSD, ALONE, will minimum 4X the stock, and possible 10X the stock in next 5 years. 2028 I can assure you will come (and go) and Tesla will make a lot of people, many retail investors, financially secure. Good luck everyone on risk adjusted valuations, hoping for good outcomes of everyone.
Well said and well done. You saw the vision of Tesla 20 years ago, and his already paid off for you with two stock splits. I believe there are a handful more of stock splits to come.
I, too, am holding my shares for the next 10 or 15 years minimum.
Self drive software has little value if it isn't a monopoly. Hiw can self drive software become a monopoly?
It really can't
In which case it'll be the consumers who win with low prices not the fsd providers with high prices
It's more likely that FSD will be totally free rather than thousands per year not least the reality that of the 2 billion vehicles in existence at least 1.5 billion of those owners won't even be willing to pay $5/hour for FSD becuase they don't have an income of $5/hr.....
For example the gdp per capita in china is $6 per hour assuming a 2,200 work year. You expect someone to pay 5/6th if their pre tax income for something they can do themselves?
19.300 Tesla Shares???? I have 4.678, and You 19,3k???????
Wow! You're set for life! Congrats! 🎉
@randallraines6553 it's worth about $5 million but he put in almost $5 million 2.5 years ago so he hasn't really made anything
Tesla is 100% of my portfolio.
Thanks for the complexity, honesty and willingness to go against the 100% Uber-bulls.
I guess Wall St will only value based on the revenue earning parts of the business. We can’t expect Wall St to value based on what Elon says he will do as his timeline/estimates are not reliable enough for valuations.
this is a good and sober video. I used to watch you before the stock crashed a few years ago and you were totally drinking the koolaid with flights of fancy at each turn, then when it crashed, surprisingly you said TSLA may be just a car company (perhaps you were in part dealing with the fact you had encouraged many families and friends to invest). Now you appear to have reached an appealing balance
Agreed. I was high on the koolaid like many still are.
@@TeslaEconomistHow do you know you still aren't? There are lots of reasons why tesla will just become another car company and not much more
1: FSD will be free no one company will have a monopoly and can't therefore extract monopoly margins
2: EVs have a finite market size in that most the world doesn't have the ability to home charge as most the planet live in apartments and homes with no off street parking
3: Battery storage will be a commodity business just like solar. Where is tesla solar? In the bin
4: Super charging isn't a significant and can't become a significant profit centre as home and destination charging will have over 95% of the business
5: Humanoid robots. Here is the carrot that you'll hopefully believe in once you wake up to the reality of 1-4
Tesla doesn’t need to show or prove anything. Record sales quarter after quarter along with pipeline of products and factories, compute, software, command of supply chain, massively superior engineering prowess just not good enough eh?
The compact is a monster industrial design issue! It’s biggest challenge to date.
Maybe the value is based on the poor performance of legacy or their concentration on hybrids?
It has to be future growth - 20 M vehicles in 2030 makes them the biggest in the world.
Just some random worries: Mexico is delayed due to a shift to spend more on FSD, Mexico supplier factories and supply chain issues with them, 4680 ramp slow to materialize, additionally the political environment in the US. These few concerns are weighted against the M3 refresh being priced around 30K, Nevada site construction start would indicate that the 4680 concerns maybe not that serious, new markets beginning in several countries and the establishment of more secure relations in India may be affecting decisions about start dates in Mexico. Still having said that I've begun to worry about next year as well. Seemingly a plateau of growth will hit and a year of building and expanding profit centers e.g. megapak. Lots of possible outcomes mean we need more data and look forward to Sept / Oct info releases by Tesla. No I'm not selling, still all in.
You are over thinking things….. Tesla has $23B in cash, zero debt, high demand, FSD, Cybertruck, and new factories.
And, Elon never said 50% growth every year.. he said “average” because some years would be less and some years more.
Just leave your shares, wait 10 years, then reap the rewards of your patience.
I agree 100 %
I'm 100 % in TSLA Loooooooooong term
To create interest in Tesla, the Cybertruck is important to creating a status symbol to help sales of big and smaller cars. I am glad to see the Cybertruck become part of the fleet of cars
Technicals AND fundamentals all point to a new all time high for Tesla stock by 2024. The cybertruck is gonna do it. And America is the world’s largest pick-up truck market. Thats what wall street cares about. Car sales. Period. Until they get FSD working or energy business is 25-30% of revenue, its all about cars. Hopefully we see a 2020-like move in 2024. So even if it hits $500 or $600, don’t sell.
I appreciate the conservative perspective, we need this sometimes.
Thanks for your sober and realistic take on where Tesla is currently operating.. Having run a business for 40+ years I am well aware that most worthwhile projects take far longer than initially estimated. The real world produces friction which is not experienced in spreadsheet analysis.
Thanks for the analysis! Good to hear some risks, not just the "potential".
Agree that better, cheaper, lighter batteries seems important
Lee show us the fleet of ICE vehicles under 25 grand here in the USA seeing that ASP is 48k
I don't blame Wall street for not reacting to FSD. There's been a lot of hype for a long time and they have nothing to compare the progress to. Chat GPT is cool but can't drive a car, alpha go and fold are very useful but to non experts they just look like clever programs and we've seen that before etc. With no yardstick to measure against and no way to really compare FSD to Blue cruise, Waymo etc. those analysts are in the dark.
Without understanding that you are seeing a historic moment for FSD, most will just compare it to Waymo.
Well thought out opinion as usual.
As far as Cybertruck, I do believe it will hit the million annual sales rate if it proves to be a true work truck. The F150 brags about being number one for decades and about 1/3rd or maybe higher of that is fleet sales. I could see a rapid switch to Cybertruck if it proves to be very functional and durable. Power grid companies would be a natural for a fleet of Cybertrucks to use for servicing their grid. They would likely buy battery backup systems, megapacks with solar, from Tesla if they have not already. Government agencies such as fire, military, and law enforcement, would all add Cybertrucks. Especially with the idea that in an emergency, those departments might have the ability to keep their vehicles moving even if the power grid is down.
I think Tesla would fund a second factory somewhere in North America to increase capacity of the Cybertruck. With that said, you are right, batteries and the raw materials to make batteries, will be the biggest issue. I get your logic on thinking they will make the Tesla compact the focus since it uses less batteries, but Tesla has a history of funding the mission with higher end vehicles. I think they will seek to get max revenue from the higher cost models. This will help to pay for what is needed to make the Tesla compact a success. I am thankful that Tesla does not make profit their only goal, but I think they have done a great job squeezing profits out where ever possible, without going so hardcore they hurt consumers the way some companies have. Tesla is not trying to please Wall Street. They are using a road map and sticking to it, versus the do whatever Wall Street demands like some companies.
It is sad that Musk has lost some faith when he makes his statements. Not sure if that is because he was so excited that he made bold claims or if he was just being a hype man. I am guessing it is excitement. In the past he had mentioned lessons learned about development. Things like improvements are easier at first and that last mile of development can be very hard. He let the 95% done make him feel like the last 5% was going to happen in short order. Instead, that last 5% is taking as long as the 95%.
Glad you keep questioning Tesla's plans and not just taking what Musk says on face value. Tesla is an amazing company, but reality bites and you want to be ready for those bites. Thankfully, I believe Tesla is good at recovering from the reality bites and adapting to still reach goals, even if it is years later. For investors it creates a roller coaster for share prices. Those who play it right, love the ride. I am not good at timing this stuff, so I just buy when I can to add, but do not sell.
I'm long term bullish, but a bit of sobering reality is long overdue. When was the last time tesla came in ahead of schedule on anything? Due to the complexity of these challenges its totally understanding that it would take a very long time, but these predicted timelines are often ridiculous and when they miss badly 98% of the time, it comes off as a fail to customers, the public and wall street. And here we are, yet again with the announcement of giga mexico several months ago and its impossibly "optimistic" completion date, which as always is instantly parroted by the uberbulls as if it was a cold hard fact. They've already missed the ground breaking prediction by months, FFS. Based on past results, completion and production of Gen 3 will likely be at least a year or two behind. Giga Berlin and Austin have both flatlined if not gone backwards with production and if I hear another uberbull say Optimus will be working at the Mexico plant in the thousands of units by end of next year, I might lose it, haha. Please be realistic people. This is a slow grind on a global scale with more unknown unknows than anyone can imagine. As a long term investor, I would just love to see a CT delivery event anytime by end of 2023 and a ramp of 50k reached by end of 2024.
The depreciation of a personal vehicle being driven as a Robotaxi will be substantial.
Earnings will also be taxed. Would you trust your pride and joy to pick up random partygoers overnight?
I have been an Uber driver, so I understand the economics of converting a personal use car into an income generator. The paperwork and accounting will be substantial.
So, I would expect Robotaxis might absorb second-hand Tesla Model 3s as people put together their own fleet of used Teslas that already have high mileage. That makes sense.
Yet, I don't see individual owners who bought new being tempted to risk their car with vomiting, drug-addled passengers intent on a cheap joyride with no driver to keep them in check. Any internal camera aimed at passengers will not be working the first night.
Often, it's not the person who pays for the ride that causes trouble, but their friends whose identity will remain unknown.
So, YES to small businesses running a small fleet of used Teslas as Robotaxis that have already been depreciated, yet NO to switching on hundreds of thousands of privately owned pride and joy Teslas.
As a former Uber driver, I have been interested in this space for around 8 years. The current crop of Tesla people promoting Robotaxi as a major business have no idea about the next decade required for real uptake.
There are real business catalysts coming, and licensing FSD to OEMs is real, as are the other proven catalysts. Yet fleets of privately owned off-peak Tesla Robotaxis by 2025 will simply NOT happen.
I am a Tesla investor and I see the Robotaxi hype as hugely damaging to Tesla's brand credibility.
When Tesla announces they are trialing Robotaxis, then that's the time to talk it up - not before, in my humble opinion.
What more do you know about a possible Tesla Robotaxi network?
Thank you for your videos!
I dunno institutional investors just don’t get it. Even if things boom - they just don’t get it.
Your fine thinking and detective work is extremely important for us to see reality! Thanks for making us all think a bit deeper on this great company.
Thanks Lee for laying out the basics of what constrains Tesla’s growth in plain terms that we can think clearly about.
Personally, I now think FSD v12 has a clearer/nearer line of sight than the 4680 volume ramp, but you’re asking all the RIGHT questions, Lee! Thank you for distilling to help us process all the variables. 🙏🏾
Have you repurchased any of your sold shares yet?
I like to look at the take rate for EVs around the world. The United States is woefully behind. China is by far number one. Europe is number two.The United States is way down the list compared to other countries.
bad news are all causing discount.
Let’s face the reality that Tesla is still very dependent on China and Chinese batteries. US, Germany, and Mexico just don’t know how to make batteries. So building one more Giga factory in China is a better option for Tesla.
Well, v12 is still in Alpha, and it wanted to go on a red light, and most investors have no idea what a huge deal end to end neural net is.
But yeah, I think maybe two percent of Tesla investors are giving any value for FSD. Lots of Tesla YT channels explicitly give no value to FSD in their valuation models.
Elons video only resonated with Tesla bulls familiar with FSD. The rest of the world saw him laughing about Zuck and making ASS jokes. Pathetic. They’ll see.