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I don’t think a lot of people understand the toll Texas weather takes on houses. A 1967 house in Texas has had a lot more abuse than one in California.
Deficit spending has been sold as a kind of prudent borrowing for a better future. Truth: the sole purpose of racking up this massive debt is entirely political: to keep the good ship lollipop afloat till the day of reckoning. At 70, I’m old enough to remember a) when there was snow on the ground before Christmas; b) a job was for life; c) working families could afford a modest home. Funny how corporate taxes were much higher back then, and disparities of wealth and the financialization of the economy much less pronounced.
what if the last bear dies, but the remaining bull is a never ending government fire hose of money connected to an account that buys stocks to keep it all going in perpetuity? (yes I'm being serious because I think this is already happening)
Lance says he’d doesn’t know what could cause stocks to trend down over the next decade shortly after mentioning his boomer clients are now generally selling down their portfolios. This trend will only grow over the coming decades.
We are going to See Max PAIN for, the Bears and THOSE People that are STILL,.. OUT of, the Market . YUP,.. some serious FOMO and, the "Melt Up",.. still to COME ! !I'll start to get, a bit Nervous around, Election Time ! Serious Election PANDERING still to Come as, the Dem's look,.. Weak !
I grew up in a house built in the 1700's. Figured I get something newer for my first house. That one was built in 1830, with six fireplaces and two beehive ovens. New England is old.
The last 20 or so minutes were so powerful, transparent and inspiring I shared it with my 27 year old son who is starting a media/ copywritting company. Thank you both.
Both Adam and Lance are consummate professionals, this is one of the leading informative investor channels I’ve ever watched … Thanks guys for providing such high quality insights and commentary …. Great work 👍
Thanks as always for the thoughtful analysis. Here’s my takeaway: “markets have room to run”. Translation, when you, Lance and most of the other talking heads are saying not yet, stay in…we retail investors should probably start easing out of the market and/or hedging our positions while institutions and hedge funds are selling to retail at/near the top.
Lance is the best. Very clear. And totally aware. The “iceberg” analogy is super apt as a description of how much we can actually know about the market at any given moment. “Ocean Liner”: the bigger the economy gets, the longer it takes for the market to go definitively negative or positive.
Lance what the hell are you talking about. Many of wall street’s biggest titans are calling for a major correction. The budget deficit is exploding and almost junk status, consumers are taped out and near broke, unemployment is rising fast, 2 wars going on, commercial real estate is a disaster, many cities are ghost towns and are big time broke, only 4 mega companies are pulling the market. Adam , lance is not a good guest
@@thomasmazzola4760 All true, but Lance is, I have no doubt, well aware of these factors. His reply, I take it, would be to say that, incredibly, there’s still room for MORE deficit spending. What’s more, financialization via the massive amount of printed money that’s still sloshing about the market effectively delays the inevitable. The question that remains open is whether the 2025 “prediction” and the “30%” recessionary market decline are accurate. My layman’s perspective is that if 2009 was, in fact, papered over, are we not in for something far worse? Add to that conundrum the geopolitical risks, which look huge to me.
@@thomasmazzola4760 That is what people were saying a year ago. I stayed out and LOST a major opportunity. (collecting my 5% from the MM) Now, I'm hoping for a big correction 10%-20%. It has been awful watching the market go skyward.
@@thomasmazzola4760 I agree this market is about as safe and secure as Lance's rental house electrical system. Both Adam and Lance need to go back and study the time and effort it took the United States "to righted itself" the last time it spent itself into an ungodly debt pile. Does 1968 to 1982, Jimmy Carter, Paul Volker ring a bell? Just think, Joe Bidin was just learning to lie and plagiarize back then.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the Dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
My CFA ’ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
@Adam Thank you very much for all the time and energy you put into Thoughtful Money and the people you interview! I enjoy your programs immensely and try to learn as much as I can (even though I live in Europe and not everything is the same here) ☺👍
GREAT discussion this week, guys. Really appreciate Lance’s specificity about forecasts and market cycles. “Small changes make big differences over time” indeed. Since we learned to think in terms of 25-50-100 basis-points changes to appropriately sized positions e.g. 1-6%, not huge chunks accretive performance has improved.
“… if you would have sold the Monday after Lehman went bust, you would have been fine …”. Sure. Easy to say with hindsight. At the time nobody knew what was going to happen. Was it a blip, or the end of the world? Nobody knew, include all of the big guys. That’s why Hank Paulson had his panic meetings. But, at the time the average main street investor had no inkling of all of that. It’s only now, years later, after books and movies on the topic, that most of us have learned the facts. That’s why so many people lost so much, including some money mangers who should have known what was going on, but didn’t. What makes people like Michael Burry legends nowadays is that they were the rare ones who did see the potential losses and opportunities at the time. To say to an average investor, “if you would have been as clued-in as Michael Burry, you would have been fine,” is a bit of an insult, really.
My last two homes were built in the early 1900s both prewar. That is craftsmanship Today's houses are built cheaply. Thin walls no personality nor architectural design.
@@helenkessler6012 The "bones" of those old houses are great. The plumbing and electrical need to be updated at some point, often by stripping them to the old growth studs.
I'm glad his advice to his wife worked for him. I've found that saying 'it's nothing' doesn't help with my wife. She often wants to express her feelings and for me to listen. period.
I want someone to listen and to make comforting replies of some kind! Not necessarily "brace up" or "it could be worse" but a recognition that it is a stressful situation and some solutions!!
Adam said, "We have a hard time as a society imagining price deflation anymore. " That's exactly the problem Paul Volcker said he faced in trying to rein in inflation in the '70s - - people just would not believe that inflation would come back down. And that helps lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of higher inflation.
I’m sorry to be blunt, but saying this bull market has until 2028 because the average secular bull market lasts 15 years is one of the dumbest comments I’ve heard in a long time. The total sample size of secular bull markets we have EVER seen is 3…..INCLUDING THE CURRENT ONE!! That is nowhere near any statistical significance to draw ANY inference from.
Watched the Hussman interview... he repeatedly said he suggested all investors should take the time to evaluate the risk in their portfolios...and their personal risk tolerance. Mainly because market internals have deteriorated that much. I recall his market comment the end of November 2021..."Motherlode".. 6 weeks before the 2022 correction started (what ?..20% S&P, 25% Nasdaq).
You guys are amazing. I was so impressed today first with Lance's survival of his house shorting out and his retelling of it with such optimism and humor. The guy obviously works his butt off and is such a good example of what makes America a successful country. Then, here at the closing Adam tells of his 125-student high school experiences and how so many of his peers rose from the love and education and training of their parents and teachers to become wonderful contributors to society. Adam, you truly are a special human being and I'm so grateful for all the work you do to bring together all these experts and remind us of the fundamentals of business investments. You mention politics rarely, but occasionally, so I want to share my thoughts with you. First I want to share that I am fiscally conservative and almost always vote no on anything that is going to cost money and I am socially liberal, meaning I basically think live and let live. I fear a second Trump presidency because I fear the man himself. I can never see the violent men who overcome the capitol as "hostages" or worse yet "heroes." I cannot approve of revenge and retribution which we know means Trump going after anyone Trump hates and considers a political or personal enemy: Andrew McCabe, former Deputy Director of the FBI; James Comey, former Director of the FBI; Mark Esper, former U.S. Secretary of Defense; General Mark Milley, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Bill Barr, former Attorney General; Dr. Anthony Fauci, former Chief Medical Advisor [Steve Bannon said Dr. Fauci should be beheaded]; Christopher Wray, former Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice [Bannon also said should be beheaded]; and of course Representative Liz Cheney and all the members of the January 6th committee and popular comedians and so many others. I will stop, but it is obvious to me that you care about the much bigger picture than just whether the stock market is going to go up or down. You care about justice and frequently comment on the growing discrepancy between the super wealthy and everyone else. You speak of family and tradition and community and friends and even international peace. I applaud you for just doing you. We need you in just such a time as this. 🙂
Love this overview of the market! And Adam, we love the new background, just a super earth vibe with the lighting and color accents highlight just enough!
I want to hear Lance talk about inflation more if he thinks the secular bull market stays intact for the next ten years. Wouldn’t we have runaway inflation if that’s the case?
As Lance will tell you - I’m looking forward to the market going lower now that Lance is on holiday. The Lance on Holiday trigger could be a real thing. 😀 However, I’m probably more impressed you knew Gretchen Mol. 😂
This is the most spirited “discussion” between Adam and Lance that I can remember. There was definitely some friction when talking about passive investing.
Commenting under my wife’s account, the last part of your conversation was so inspiring! Thank you for doing the work that you’ve been called to do! YZ
If a catalyst event takes place on a saturday what can you do to protect your portfolio for the gap down event at 4am on monday morning? Is there any way to get out of positions before then?
The betting on yourself part resonated so incredibly much with me... I share the same exact story but with some differences (obviously lol)... it's crazy how our entire lives depend on that crucial moment between middle school and age when everyone graduates from university or goes running off into the world to test their resolves (betting on themselves)... I too gave myself no safety net deliberately... my friends also went into the world in the same ways, and my very best friend became a successful artist while the others are also leaders and whatnot... it seems that a good upbringing within a community is so incredibly important... to have those influences early on and even if the family situation is not great, those other families and people have such an impact on us and our understandings of who we are and where we are... it took me from 16 to 28 to find myself but my god, when I did... BLASTOFF ensued and I am only getting faster and higher. Life truly is marvelous... so thank you for sharing your story and emphasizing it with Lance... such a fun episode from start to finish.
Japan runs massive deficits because the Japanese central banks owns basically 100% of the JGB market and the majority of their sovereign wealth funds, private asset holdings, etc are diversified outside of Japan. The US and Japan are drastically different. The US has also been exporting inflation for decades by virtue of being the reserve currency. Setttlement and thus demand for US dollar denominated assets and dollars is going to drop, it already is as countries decide to settle in other currencies. I’m not smart enough to know what this means for US markets other than that it should keep inflation sticky unless the government calls for austerity, brings in capital controls to force domestic funds to hold a certain amount of treasuries to fund the deficits, or the fed monetizes the bulk of it in which case the USD will possibly get crushed. Most other nations are caught in this situation though so maybe the USD holds up relative to other currencies and is last to the bottom.
First time listener and love the introduction about life happening because I was on my way back to my hometown for 4th of July and my Jeep broke down on the interstate. Currently waiting on the mechanic to get back to me. Subscribed! Great content btw
My oldest son, now 24, as a senior in college had the same issue. We drove 6 hrs and it was the most dreadful drive to NoCal from SoCal. I called in all my personal chits with all my friends. Turned out to be mono. 🤦♂️
A highly probable way the perpetual deficit(s) becomes a "today" problem is like Liz Truss' experience in the U.K. She served as Prime Minister of the U.K. from September to October 2022. On her 50th day in office, she stepped down amid a government funding crisis. When you are heavily indebted and the creditors lose faith, their sentiment can change on a dime. The creditors or liquidity providers rule when you're financially stressed whether an individual, company, or government. When debt to GDP is over 100% like it is in the U.S. currently, poor sentiment and bad economic experiences could become more commonplace. The U.S. can probably get away with more profligacy than most, but the U.S. is pushing the envelope further than ever before during peacetime. Eventually even the mighty U.S. could have a "Lehman" moment. The U.S.S.R. had theirs and countries like Argentina/Greece/Cuba etc. have had many! BTW many of us were warning about Lehman way before they filed bankruptcy although that certainly caused a huge sentiment shift for the unknowing when it happened.
But in 2008 you had several players that knew what was coming such as Burry, Paulson, Icahn etc... so I'd say it wasn't completely unexpected. Same could be said about certain things now.
Adam, I love this show, and I love EVERY podcast you are on. I think you are brilliant and on point. I did not like what Lnace had to say around the 8:30 mark about doom and gloom projections not being taken honestly if the individual making those projections is unable to forecast when and how much. Lance transitioned into a sales pitch by saying that this keeps people on the side lines not investing. In July of 2007, if you could have been told to wait out the market for the next 12 months because you knew what was about to transpire, without really being told WHEN a bottom would occur, but that it would occur soon, you would have a lot of people sitting out of the market. Lance is paid a commission to manage people's money. Bearish talk reduces the money he is able to manage and thus reduces the amount of money he keeps for commission. Nobody, not even Warren Buffet or any of his Ivy League MBA grads are able to forecast, let alone, beat the index. So are we to then dismiss anything that Warren or his esteemed colleagues have to say about overvaluations? That particular segment rubbed me the wrong way.
This guy is a bull through and through. "Yeah, what's 15% of a drop in Nvidia if you're over 400%..." Bruh, Adam had to keep pulling you back to reality.
I think this guy is blind to the fact that the middle and lower rungs of the middle class are experiencing a depression now, and that is going to influence policy going forward.
But no one seems to understand is that we are truly at a Vortexx moment, economically politically and socially. The totally unexpected, and the most punishing reality will appear shortly. The markets, the political class and our culture had drifted from reality and will soon recover. It’s true reckoning.
I loved the last section of this, thanks very much Lance and Adam, grateful for that piece of inspiration as someone who is trying to become more and more self-actualized and self-determined in my life. Thank you.
How about showing the chart of the S&P in 2018. Similar from January thru July. But instead of hitting a bottom in October, the market just kept declining until Christmas Eve.
I couldn't believe my ears when I heard Lance say deficits won't cause a crisis or what will the crisis be. Other countries have already lived through this including the UK in 2022. When Liz truss came out with all these plans for tax cuts along with new spending, the bond market called her on it and almost crashed. If the US doesn't rain in spending soon, the same thing could easily happen to the bond market in the US.
Yep, I’ve only had about 5 sodas in 37 years and only about 8 cups of caffeinated coffee since a heart attack in Jan. I miss my coffee but soda tastes like chemicals to me. Never had an energy drink!
I hope things improve for Lance and his family. Life can be rough at times. Kindness and empathy are two underpriced commodities in the world right now. On the positive side of the difficulties people are facing economically, I hope one of the better outcomes is the solidarity/social cohesion of my grandparents generation.
I agree w Adam- thank u for sharing ur house story... we've just moved and I can relate- to all of it- but not all in one day,,.geez..😂 Glad no one was injured...
The tip of the iceberg I believe. In fact I have heard people say that new houses are built just for the duration of a mortgage, and think, with climate change we will see more and more extreme weather, probably our civilisation won't withstand it all.
Lance, You need to have a competent electrician take a look. Normally, almost no continuous current should flow on the ground wire. Current flows on the "hot" wires and the "neutral" wire. If there is any substantial current flowing on the ground wire something is not right.
He's into finance, not electricity. At best, this sounded like a squirrel-induced loose neutral, pole to house. If the natural had come loose on the other side of the transformer the appliances could have been deadly, not just tingly.
I’m mainly into mining stocks. Precious metals miners tend to pull back or consolidate between August & October just like the stock market, so I sold a bunch of out of the money covered calls on those. The exception is EQX and SAND which will see enhanced revenues in Q3 from the newly operating Greenstone mine. Uranium miners buck the trend a bit, doing surprisingly well into fall. I’m sitting on covered calls I sold in prior highs, but I bought a lot more shares recently and left the upside open.
Money printing made sure that money is printed and people push that money to stock markets ONLY. Now everytine there is a problem more koney is printed. When businesses face problems they are waived off that money with interest and written off with NPA. When people face prpblems, the koney is recovered 100% no matter what. So, now when the money printing slows down or stops, there is no more free lunch to businesses and when recession hits, people wont be able to save theor money in stock markets. In flows reduce and market crashes. No brainer. Same thing happened in 2001, 2008, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2023 again. How long? Because the debt to gdp is crossing 250% in USA and more than 100% in India. So if more money is printed and recovery is for next 25 to 50 years, essentially next wntire generaiton will pay directly or indirectly for that. So essentially when and if no money printing, then bubble of stocm market on last 25 years will burst. BTW All rich elite powerdul people are selling their stocks pumping and dumping to retail investors and they are sitting on cash.
Adam looks like he's in his rustic bug-out cabin just in time for the "Invasion of the Broccoli" haha. Hope that isn't that green moss they sell in craft stores, which I've used for an architectural model, that stuff smells horrible and the smell never goes away.
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Gregory Manarino needs to be on here so he can explain.
"This is a very old house....it was built in 1967" 😂
It’s modest too based on last weeks episode- only $800K
I know - very North American.
Almost a 60 year old house. So, yea it's an old house. And this is Houston.
I don’t think a lot of people understand the toll Texas weather takes on houses. A 1967 house in Texas has had a lot more abuse than one in California.
lol i thought this too!!!! writing from my 1954 that i thought wasnt that old hahahahhah
Deficit spending has been sold as a kind of prudent borrowing for a better future. Truth: the sole purpose of racking up this massive debt is entirely political: to keep the good ship lollipop afloat till the day of reckoning. At 70, I’m old enough to remember a) when there was snow on the ground before Christmas; b) a job was for life; c) working families could afford a modest home. Funny how corporate taxes were much higher back then, and disparities of wealth and the financialization of the economy much less pronounced.
Sure it can continue... until the last bear is dead. Then it will finally crash. That's the way it always happens.
Totally agree. 👍🐕
what if the last bear dies, but the remaining bull is a never ending government fire hose of money connected to an account that buys stocks to keep it all going in perpetuity? (yes I'm being serious because I think this is already happening)
DiMartino will not give up.
@free-qe6wx she's a fed apologist.
Money printer goes Brrrr!
Sooner rather than later.
Lance says he’d doesn’t know what could cause stocks to trend down over the next decade shortly after mentioning his boomer clients are now generally selling down their portfolios. This trend will only grow over the coming decades.
markets can be irrational longer than we can we withstand FOMO😂
Longer than we can stay solvent
High risk of correction, July 15th and then again mid-august beware of the odds of August.
I did a video on it
We are going to See Max PAIN for, the Bears and THOSE People that are STILL,.. OUT of, the Market .
YUP,.. some serious FOMO and, the "Melt Up",.. still to COME !
!I'll start to get, a bit Nervous around, Election Time ! Serious Election PANDERING still to Come as, the Dem's look,.. Weak !
@@pebbleschun Keynes’ admonition seems even more apt these days, as secular market advances have become much more protracted.
@@ProvocateuAstrology2 Name checks out. Tin foil hat?
LOL at Lance calling his house “very old” at 1967. That would be considered a newish house here in Massachusetts. I grew up in a house built in 1867.
I know. In the UK - very old has to be 19th c.
And here I am sitting in a house built in 1650...and even that isn't incredibly old in the UK
I grew up in a house built in the 1700's. Figured I get something newer for my first house. That one was built in 1830, with six fireplaces and two beehive ovens. New England is old.
The last 20 or so minutes were so powerful, transparent and inspiring I shared it with my 27 year old son who is starting a media/ copywritting company. Thank you both.
Thank you, Adam and Lance. The market experience and reassurance Lance offers is a soothing balm in relation to most investment content.
Both Adam and Lance are consummate professionals, this is one of the leading informative investor channels I’ve ever watched … Thanks guys for providing such high quality insights and commentary …. Great work 👍
Wow, thanks!
Thanks as always for the thoughtful analysis. Here’s my takeaway: “markets have room to run”. Translation, when you, Lance and most of the other talking heads are saying not yet, stay in…we retail investors should probably start easing out of the market and/or hedging our positions while institutions and hedge funds are selling to retail at/near the top.
Adam, don't forget to remind people that Lance and his RIA team will not give them that free consultation, unless they have $1M and over ...
Lance is the best. Very clear. And totally aware. The “iceberg” analogy is super apt as a description of how much we can actually know about the market at any given moment. “Ocean Liner”: the bigger the economy gets, the longer it takes for the market to go definitively negative or positive.
Lance what the hell are you talking about. Many of wall street’s biggest titans are calling for a major correction. The budget deficit is exploding and almost junk status, consumers are taped out and near broke, unemployment is rising fast, 2 wars going on, commercial real estate is a disaster, many cities are ghost towns and are big time broke, only 4 mega companies are pulling the market. Adam , lance is not a good guest
@@thomasmazzola4760 All true, but Lance is, I have no doubt, well aware of these factors. His reply, I take it, would be to say that, incredibly, there’s still room for MORE deficit spending. What’s more, financialization via the massive amount of printed money that’s still sloshing about the market effectively delays the inevitable. The question that remains open is whether the 2025 “prediction” and the “30%” recessionary market decline are accurate. My layman’s perspective is that if 2009 was, in fact, papered over, are we not in for something far worse? Add to that conundrum the geopolitical risks, which look huge to me.
@@thomasmazzola4760 That is what people were saying a year ago. I stayed out and LOST a major opportunity. (collecting my 5% from the MM) Now, I'm hoping for a big correction 10%-20%. It has been awful watching the market go skyward.
@@thomasmazzola4760 I agree this market is about as safe and secure as Lance's rental house electrical system. Both Adam and Lance need to go back and study the time and effort it took the United States "to righted itself" the last time it spent itself into an ungodly debt pile. Does 1968 to 1982, Jimmy Carter, Paul Volker ring a bell? Just think, Joe Bidin was just learning to lie and plagiarize back then.
Thanks Adam and Lance! Love your analysis Lance and thank you Adam for sharing your inspirational story.
Since passive investment dominates the stock market the stock market has become a lagging economic indicator.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the Dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
My CFA ’ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Just ran an online search on her name and came across her websiite; pretty well educated. thank you for sharing.
I look forward to every show with Adam and Lance!
Another great thing is that navigating the Macro Economy and the Market, we got the best of both worlds -- Adam and Lance!
Thank you Adam and Lance.
Have a great weekend.
Love this session, Adam, especially on the section: Bet on yourself. May God bless you and Lance even more. Thank you. Stay safe.
@Adam Thank you very much for all the time and energy you put into Thoughtful Money and the people you interview! I enjoy your programs immensely and try to learn as much as I can (even though I live in Europe and not everything is the same here) ☺👍
You're more than welcome -- and thank YOU for watching from across the Atlantic!
GREAT discussion this week, guys. Really appreciate Lance’s specificity about forecasts and market cycles. “Small changes make big differences over time” indeed. Since we learned to think in terms of 25-50-100 basis-points changes to appropriately sized positions e.g. 1-6%, not huge chunks accretive performance has improved.
S&P - “Hold my beer.”
Great job keeping an open mind and being brave enough to go out on your own Adam!
“… if you would have sold the Monday after Lehman went bust, you would have been fine …”. Sure. Easy to say with hindsight. At the time nobody knew what was going to happen. Was it a blip, or the end of the world? Nobody knew, include all of the big guys. That’s why Hank Paulson had his panic meetings. But, at the time the average main street investor had no inkling of all of that. It’s only now, years later, after books and movies on the topic, that most of us have learned the facts. That’s why so many people lost so much, including some money mangers who should have known what was going on, but didn’t. What makes people like Michael Burry legends nowadays is that they were the rare ones who did see the potential losses and opportunities at the time. To say to an average investor, “if you would have been as clued-in as Michael Burry, you would have been fine,” is a bit of an insult, really.
For Lance - I never miss your shows
Lances electrical issues show that houses are liabilities not assets.
My last two homes were built in the early 1900s both prewar.
That is craftsmanship
Today's houses are built cheaply. Thin walls no personality nor architectural design.
@@helenkessler6012 The "bones" of those old houses are great. The plumbing and electrical need to be updated at some point, often by stripping them to the old growth studs.
Depreciating asset.
@@mr.q8023a depreciating asset who’s market value seems to increase every year.
And how humans haven't seen anything yet. The messing with the climate and ecosystems will come.back to bite us.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
"The market is overvalued" Part 6
I'm glad his advice to his wife worked for him. I've found that saying 'it's nothing' doesn't help with my wife. She often wants to express her feelings and for me to listen. period.
And you should listen to her.
I want someone to listen and to make comforting replies of some kind! Not necessarily "brace up" or "it could be worse" but a recognition that it is a stressful situation and some solutions!!
Adam said, "We have a hard time as a society imagining price deflation anymore. "
That's exactly the problem Paul Volcker said he faced in trying to rein in inflation in the '70s - - people just would not believe that inflation would come back down. And that helps lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of higher inflation.
I’m sorry to be blunt, but saying this bull market has until 2028 because the average secular bull market lasts 15 years is one of the dumbest comments I’ve heard in a long time. The total sample size of secular bull markets we have EVER seen is 3…..INCLUDING THE CURRENT ONE!! That is nowhere near any statistical significance to draw ANY inference from.
49:30 - This is a point Joseph Wang and Lance agree. The deficit by itself is a non-issue, until interest rates explode on the long end of the curve.
Watched the Hussman interview... he repeatedly said he suggested all investors should take the time to evaluate the risk in their portfolios...and their personal risk tolerance. Mainly because market internals have deteriorated that much. I recall his market comment the end of November 2021..."Motherlode".. 6 weeks before the 2022 correction started (what ?..20% S&P, 25% Nasdaq).
You guys are amazing. I was so impressed today first with Lance's survival of his house shorting out and his retelling of it with such optimism and humor. The guy obviously works his butt off and is such a good example of what makes America a successful country. Then, here at the closing Adam tells of his 125-student high school experiences and how so many of his peers rose from the love and education and training of their parents and teachers to become wonderful contributors to society. Adam, you truly are a special human being and I'm so grateful for all the work you do to bring together all these experts and remind us of the fundamentals of business investments.
You mention politics rarely, but occasionally, so I want to share my thoughts with you. First I want to share that I am fiscally conservative and almost always vote no on anything that is going to cost money and I am socially liberal, meaning I basically think live and let live. I fear a second Trump presidency because I fear the man himself. I can never see the violent men who overcome the capitol as "hostages" or worse yet "heroes." I cannot approve of revenge and retribution which we know means Trump going after anyone Trump hates and considers a political or personal enemy: Andrew McCabe, former Deputy Director of the FBI; James Comey, former Director of the FBI; Mark Esper, former U.S. Secretary of Defense; General Mark Milley, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Bill Barr, former Attorney General; Dr. Anthony Fauci, former Chief Medical Advisor [Steve Bannon said Dr. Fauci should be beheaded]; Christopher Wray, former Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice [Bannon also said should be beheaded]; and of course Representative Liz Cheney and all the members of the January 6th committee and popular comedians and so many others.
I will stop, but it is obvious to me that you care about the much bigger picture than just whether the stock market is going to go up or down. You care about justice and frequently comment on the growing discrepancy between the super wealthy and everyone else. You speak of family and tradition and community and friends and even international peace. I applaud you for just doing you. We need you in just such a time as this. 🙂
Great show Adam. Would love to see you interview Dave Collum
Love this overview of the market! And Adam, we love the new background, just a super earth vibe with the lighting and color accents highlight just enough!
Thanks so much!
I want to hear Lance talk about inflation more if he thinks the secular bull market stays intact for the next ten years. Wouldn’t we have runaway inflation if that’s the case?
As Lance will tell you - I’m looking forward to the market going lower now that Lance is on holiday. The Lance on Holiday trigger could be a real thing. 😀
However, I’m probably more impressed you knew Gretchen Mol. 😂
This is the most spirited “discussion” between Adam and Lance that I can remember. There was definitely some friction when talking about passive investing.
Commenting under my wife’s account, the last part of your conversation was so inspiring! Thank you for doing the work that you’ve been called to do! YZ
I appreciate that!
Had Keurig 10 years no problems!!! Great show Adam.
Adam, I thought that was a green python stretched across your new background. Which of those lumps is the pig??
😅
I like Lance's realistic analysis. It is a refreshing viewpoint in the sea of expert raisin alarms.
If a catalyst event takes place on a saturday what can you do to protect your portfolio for the gap down event at 4am on monday morning? Is there any way to get out of positions before then?
another great show thanks boys and have fun Lance
The betting on yourself part resonated so incredibly much with me... I share the same exact story but with some differences (obviously lol)... it's crazy how our entire lives depend on that crucial moment between middle school and age when everyone graduates from university or goes running off into the world to test their resolves (betting on themselves)... I too gave myself no safety net deliberately... my friends also went into the world in the same ways, and my very best friend became a successful artist while the others are also leaders and whatnot... it seems that a good upbringing within a community is so incredibly important... to have those influences early on and even if the family situation is not great, those other families and people have such an impact on us and our understandings of who we are and where we are... it took me from 16 to 28 to find myself but my god, when I did... BLASTOFF ensued and I am only getting faster and higher. Life truly is marvelous... so thank you for sharing your story and emphasizing it with Lance... such a fun episode from start to finish.
The end was a great chitchat 🎉🎉
Japan runs massive deficits because the Japanese central banks owns basically 100% of the JGB market and the majority of their sovereign wealth funds, private asset holdings, etc are diversified outside of Japan. The US and Japan are drastically different. The US has also been exporting inflation for decades by virtue of being the reserve currency. Setttlement and thus demand for US dollar denominated assets and dollars is going to drop, it already is as countries decide to settle in other currencies.
I’m not smart enough to know what this means for US markets other than that it should keep inflation sticky unless the government calls for austerity, brings in capital controls to force domestic funds to hold a certain amount of treasuries to fund the deficits, or the fed monetizes the bulk of it in which case the USD will possibly get crushed. Most other nations are caught in this situation though so maybe the USD holds up relative to other currencies and is last to the bottom.
Thank you. I value the range of topics and guests you include.
Perfect Interview. Thanks!
Thanks for the electrict story, Robert, now we all got advised to check our connection boxes every year 🙏
First time listener and love the introduction about life happening because I was on my way back to my hometown for 4th of July and my Jeep broke down on the interstate. Currently waiting on the mechanic to get back to me. Subscribed! Great content btw
Great discussion! I find these weekly market recaps very factual and informative👍
Really like when You get's to a fight with Lance. I'm gonna stand on Lance side
My oldest son, now 24, as a senior in college had the same issue. We drove 6 hrs and it was the most dreadful drive to NoCal from SoCal. I called in all my personal chits with all my friends. Turned out to be mono. 🤦♂️
Adam! Host a debate between Lance and the best advocate for the death of passive investing. That would be amazing!
This is the best financial channel on the web. I really love it. Thank you Adam Taggart! I learn so much here.
Wow, thanks! So glad you enjoy it :)
A highly probable way the perpetual deficit(s) becomes a "today" problem is like Liz Truss' experience in the U.K. She served as Prime Minister of the U.K. from September to October 2022. On her 50th day in office, she stepped down amid a government funding crisis. When you are heavily indebted and the creditors lose faith, their sentiment can change on a dime. The creditors or liquidity providers rule when you're financially stressed whether an individual, company, or government. When debt to GDP is over 100% like it is in the U.S. currently, poor sentiment and bad economic experiences could become more commonplace. The U.S. can probably get away with more profligacy than most, but the U.S. is pushing the envelope further than ever before during peacetime. Eventually even the mighty U.S. could have a "Lehman" moment. The U.S.S.R. had theirs and countries like Argentina/Greece/Cuba etc. have had many! BTW many of us were warning about Lehman way before they filed bankruptcy although that certainly caused a huge sentiment shift for the unknowing when it happened.
But in 2008 you had several players that knew what was coming such as Burry, Paulson, Icahn etc... so I'd say it wasn't completely unexpected. Same could be said about certain things now.
Adam, I love this show, and I love EVERY podcast you are on. I think you are brilliant and on point. I did not like what Lnace had to say around the 8:30 mark about doom and gloom projections not being taken honestly if the individual making those projections is unable to forecast when and how much. Lance transitioned into a sales pitch by saying that this keeps people on the side lines not investing. In July of 2007, if you could have been told to wait out the market for the next 12 months because you knew what was about to transpire, without really being told WHEN a bottom would occur, but that it would occur soon, you would have a lot of people sitting out of the market.
Lance is paid a commission to manage people's money. Bearish talk reduces the money he is able to manage and thus reduces the amount of money he keeps for commission. Nobody, not even Warren Buffet or any of his Ivy League MBA grads are able to forecast, let alone, beat the index. So are we to then dismiss anything that Warren or his esteemed colleagues have to say about overvaluations? That particular segment rubbed me the wrong way.
It is critical to know when to buy on the dips and when not to try to catch a falling knife.
I think Nvidia may well be in falling knife territory. I got very burnt by the tech wreck in 2022, so am very wary.
hey klance you can give adam a win every now and then
This guy is a bull through and through. "Yeah, what's 15% of a drop in Nvidia if you're over 400%..."
Bruh, Adam had to keep pulling you back to reality.
Damn I love this show
We love you, too :)
Great questions Adam -- asked on behalf of a lot of us. And we got great advice from Lance.
I think this guy is blind to the fact that the middle and lower rungs of the middle class are experiencing a depression now, and that is going to influence policy going forward.
Thank you. Great show.
But no one seems to understand is that we are truly at a Vortexx moment, economically politically and socially. The totally unexpected, and the most punishing reality will appear shortly. The markets, the political class and our culture had drifted from reality and will soon recover. It’s true reckoning.
Great recap as always
Glad you enjoyed it!
My English not good enough to describe how Lance Dance rocks!
Fantastic background, I like the accent lighting and nature theme.
Yes classy. Maybe time for an environmentally themed talk? Biodiversity loss is the biggest threat to humanity.
I loved the last section of this, thanks very much Lance and Adam, grateful for that piece of inspiration as someone who is trying to become more and more self-actualized and self-determined in my life. Thank you.
Love the background. Thanks to both of you.
Thank you too!
How about showing the chart of the S&P in 2018. Similar from January thru July. But instead of hitting a bottom in October, the market just kept declining until Christmas Eve.
Lance one of the smartest guys I've ever seen on the Internet
LOVE the new background with the hint of background lighting
😂😂😂😂
Thank you!!
I couldn't believe my ears when I heard Lance say deficits won't cause a crisis or what will the crisis be. Other countries have already lived through this including the UK in 2022. When Liz truss came out with all these plans for tax cuts along with new spending, the bond market called her on it and almost crashed. If the US doesn't rain in spending soon, the same thing could easily happen to the bond market in the US.
If the market is going to be higher 10 years from now...why do I keep watching this every week?
Yep, I’ve only had about 5 sodas in 37 years and only about 8 cups of caffeinated coffee since a heart attack in Jan. I miss my coffee but soda tastes like chemicals to me. Never had an energy drink!
I hope things improve for Lance and his family. Life can be rough at times. Kindness and empathy are two underpriced commodities in the world right now. On the positive side of the difficulties people are facing economically, I hope one of the better outcomes is the solidarity/social cohesion of my grandparents generation.
he's taking a vacation to greece, i think he's doing fine!
Lance is a multimillionaire, but I can emphasize with his situation. But tbh I’m more worried about people living paycheck to paycheck.
Adam loves an analogy!
I agree w Adam- thank u for sharing ur house story... we've just moved and I can relate- to all of it- but not all in one day,,.geez..😂
Glad no one was injured...
The tip of the iceberg I believe. In fact I have heard people say that new houses are built just for the duration of a mortgage, and think, with climate change we will see more and more extreme weather, probably our civilisation won't withstand it all.
Great video. Really enjoyed the segment on finding your authentic self and betting on it.
Thanks Lance 👍
Lance, You need to have a competent electrician take a look. Normally, almost no continuous current should flow on the ground wire. Current flows on the "hot" wires and the "neutral" wire. If there is any substantial current flowing on the ground wire something is not right.
He's into finance, not electricity. At best, this sounded like a squirrel-induced loose neutral, pole to house. If the natural had come loose on the other side of the transformer the appliances could have been deadly, not just tingly.
Thank you very much...
You're the best, both of you!!
Thanks guys!!
yay for both families being healthy,,,great video
I like the wood background, but what’s with the broccoli? Isn’t it going to go bad in two weeks?
It's dried moss. It will likely last longer than the wood.
Bears sound smart. Bulls make money.
adam is growing lettuce and cabbage in the wall again
The unexpected event nobody is anticipating is rate hikes.
Some of us are anticipating it. 😉
Irrelevant, the top 10% own 80% of the market and the top ten percent is doing just fine.
Lance Roberts lives in reality, not inside his personal hobby horses. This is a a sign of an investor who manages his emotions.
I’m mainly into mining stocks.
Precious metals miners tend to pull back or consolidate between August & October just like the stock market, so I sold a bunch of out of the money covered calls on those. The exception is EQX and SAND which will see enhanced revenues in Q3 from the newly operating Greenstone mine.
Uranium miners buck the trend a bit, doing surprisingly well into fall. I’m sitting on covered calls I sold in prior highs, but I bought a lot more shares recently and left the upside open.
Er, gold and silver are breaking out.
Money printing made sure that money is printed and people push that money to stock markets ONLY. Now everytine there is a problem more koney is printed. When businesses face problems they are waived off that money with interest and written off with NPA. When people face prpblems, the koney is recovered 100% no matter what. So, now when the money printing slows down or stops, there is no more free lunch to businesses and when recession hits, people wont be able to save theor money in stock markets. In flows reduce and market crashes. No brainer. Same thing happened in 2001, 2008, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2023 again. How long? Because the debt to gdp is crossing 250% in USA and more than 100% in India. So if more money is printed and recovery is for next 25 to 50 years, essentially next wntire generaiton will pay directly or indirectly for that. So essentially when and if no money printing, then bubble of stocm market on last 25 years will burst.
BTW
All rich elite powerdul people are selling their stocks pumping and dumping to retail investors and they are sitting on cash.
You keep talking about koney. Is this some time of alternate currency.
Great presentation. Ted in Sebastopol
Adam looks like he's in his rustic bug-out cabin just in time for the "Invasion of the Broccoli" haha. Hope that isn't that green moss they sell in craft stores, which I've used for an architectural model, that stuff smells horrible and the smell never goes away.
... it can continue but its too high to make a fresh investments.
Yup,. THAT's what, KEEP'S the Newbie's scared and out,. From Making,.. ANOTHER 15%
It's a traders market until we get a correction. S&P500 index daily trades. Not much point picking individual stocks at this point