STATE OF ASIA 2023: Peak China or New China?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ก.ย. 2024
- ZURICH, November 22, 2023 - In the third session of Asia Society Switzerland’s State of Asia 2023, a panel of experts discuss whether the world is witnessing peak China or a new China, amid China’s economic struggles as well as the seeming easing of tensions between U.S. President Joe Biden and China President Xi Jinping. Participants include Keyu Jin, professor at the London School of Economics; Jörg Wuttke, president emeritus of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China; Simona Grano, senior fellow at the Asia Society Center for China Analysis; and Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. TV presenter, journalist, and events moderator Martina Fuchs moderates the discussion. (43 min., 52 sec.)
“State of Asia” is Asia Society Switzerland’s annual flagship conference that provides a condensed overview of current and future developments in Asia, and how they affect the world.
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However China's economy performs, there are always Gordon Changs round the corner.
However China’s economy performs, there are always pro CCP bots crawling the web.
Gordon Changs just serve their full time job as anti-China/ bashing China . They get paid to say “China will collapse soon” for 20 years.
One of the better panels in bisecting the economies of China without too much political insinuation.
You got to be kidding.. They are singing the same "China collapsing" crap that has been sung for over 45 years Meanwhile Western businesses are investing in China and ignoring these bullcrap "experts'
Such a weird loaded question.
China is not new, rising, or peak. China is an old superpower returning.
Everyone here is talking their book! Three issues: (1) No country has successfully implemented policies that led to higher productivity, Productivity increase is a bit like magic. No literature exists on successful policies to increase productivity (2) If real estate has to remain a core function of the Chinese economy, it means that the country will continue to build empty apartments and bridges to nowhere, and (3) Radical change of policy in ANY country is difficult if not impossible to imagine. Finally, one fundamental idea presented here is that the Chinese will be considered consumers rather than tools for the greater good of China -- that simply doesn't compute when an autocratic organism controls the system because the system is made to meet the needs of its real consumer: the Chinese Communist Party, and no one else. Aside from that a nice presentation
Great panel.
I'm impressed by the knowledge of Keyu Jin and I know very well Jörg Wuttke, since I follow him in every social. This was a great talk! Thanks for sharing.
Keyu Jin is CCP mouthpiece
That gentleman is anti China propaganda spreader.
Production is proportional to demand. Countries with financial setbacks will
reduce imports and try to export more. Given that, China's export sales will take
a hit but the impact will be balance out by increase domestic sales.
Hmm so where do those domestic sales come from with consumption also taking a hit domestically inside China? I wouldn't agree that production is proportional to demand in China's supply-side model for economic growth. As the Germany fellow discussed on more than one occasion - overcapacity is a major problem.
that's why belt and road project@@valetudo1569
Effective and informative presentation on Chinese Econ, thanks.
Prof Jin not only has her root in China, but got a objective view on China unswerving due to political climate
Only can you trust CCP.
The lady has some great insights, too bad with the timing restriction, i want to hear more from her.
The west is also dead wrong about China's debt issue. The nature of debt in China is of a totally different nature as in the west.
It's similar. High debts are not sustainable. You need to control the levels of debts. This applies to both US and China. Now it's time to pay back.
European companies ask,” Shall I stay in China or go from China ?” The trade between the two countries determines the answer. Over the past 10 years, from 2012 to 2022, imports into China have increased by about 50 billion euros, and exports from China have increased by about 350 billion euros. The trade imbalance is 300 Euros in favour of China. As China develops technologically and manufactures its own products, it needs less of the cars, chemicals, green energy products and other products from Europe (and the US). Airplanes will be the next product that China will not need in 10 to 15 years. The market is shrinking for Europeans and Americans. Sanctioning China on the products it wants, forces China to develop its own products at a faster rate. In time, many foreign companies (such as Samsung) will have to go unless they can compete and innovate and stop sanctions and labels of unfair subsidies.
I see it the other way around, China needs the European and American consumption as internal consumption isn’t growing fast enough. Europeans and Americans over time will shift supply chains away from China. For the Chinese to plug the consumption gap isn’t possible. Every Chinese needs to support 2 parents and 4 grandparents ultimately. I think we are seeing peak China
If your prediction comes true, that will create big trade frictions, as the German panelist said. No country or region will accept only imports and no exports. They'll simply say 'stop'. Even if they don't say stop, where are they going to get the money from to keep importing?
You do realize that China has been the beneficiary of US and European innovation eh? Hence the controversy around IP theft and technology transfers...this is well documented. China has largely imported technology and then manufactured it. The trade imbalance shows, as was said by the gentleman in the video, that China actually relies on the customers of the EU and the US more than vice versa. They provide manufacturing and supply chains, not a lot of consumer demand (except in Germany's car market and chemical industries).
They import products from a certain country only because there are no other countries to import them from or it is cheaper than getting them from other places, at least this dilemma existing for now.
Imposing taxes will help to de-risk and speed the shifts of new supply chains in a long run.
@@MD97531what do you really think of China? Speak your mind. Did you also believe Russia was going to crumble under western sanctions?
The great thing about humans is the ability to adapt.
1. Reduction of FDI and exit of foreign capital is not a bad phenomena. It simply means China don’t need them anymore. It also means foreign companies and capital are no longer competitive.
2. The current China property situation is induced by new policy in the first place. It is well in control for China to achieve its policy objectives.
Moderator should have introduced the speakers ( rather than calling the first speaker “The lady, here” )….
Yes it feels like the moderator forgot the speaker's name ("would YOU (pointing) quickly like to reply.."). Probably not a professional host.
Keyu's insightful
China has so much more room to grow. This is a country that is destined to be the global superpower.
Keyu Jin is so Kind. Lodi.
that host sure have a hidden anti china even it is nuances as best as she can, Dang!!!!
@@UUBrahman CCP ideology is NOT communist as many got it wrong, they are more capitalist than many western outfit... Its socialism with chinese charateristic. Dude . Dang !!!!
The girl? I'd read it as the opposite.... she's more pro-China, and hides it in nuanced speech
@@vicolew Chinese are pragmatic, doesn't matter what "cray" or " ism", as long as it can bring better life to people, then it is good, or good-enough-cray .
@monipenny408 Stop it...Unlike China, the US government is not in the business of creating fake media for the purpose of propaganda
China is now one of the world's largest markets and is expected to soon surpass the United States to become the largest market. From automobiles to chips, oil, minerals, soybeans, and fruits, we have countless Mercedes Benz and BMW car sales stores, China's data centers, and computer rooms importing the world's largest number of chips in Chinese cities (if not banned, there should be a much larger number of chips than now), From urban to rural supermarkets, imported fruits and meat can be found everywhere, which is the globalization of world trade and the growth and prosperity of the global economy!
If some countries insist on going against globalization for their immediate interests, they are destined to harm their own economy and also drag down the process of globalization, hindering their long-term economic development
Best talk Asia Society has sponsored in a while. Also good to see the Society posting to TH-cam with comments turn on (for a change).
Unfair american policy of sanctions and putting road blocks doesn't help
Here are the benefits of democracy for the world's richest and most powerful country: Economic inequality, inflation, stagnant real wages for the last forty years, costly healthcare, an expensive education system, student loan debt totaling $1.7 trillion with an average balance of $38,000, racial inequality, mass incarceration, the militarization of police, deteriorating infrastructure, housing affordability, homelessness, the opioid epidemic, and gun violence.
The form of democracy practiced in the U.S. results in social and economic policies that may not be as beneficial for the poorer eighty-eight percent of the population. Politics determines how wealth is distributed within a country.
The last time the US had a positive trade balance was in 1975, according to the U.S. Trade Balance report for 1970-2023.
The US is now the world's largest debtor, reflected in its net international investment position (NIIP) of -$14.3 trillion, while China (including Hong Kong) is the world's largest creditor with an NIIP of $4.3 trillion. The last time the US had a positive NIIP was in 1988.
That has nothing to do with democracy. All the points you mention are related social or economic issues, not political systems. You could easily have the same types of problems with a dictatorship. Myanmar could be one example.
The US is no longer a democracy, it's either corporate plutocracy or democrazy!
You don’t get it. We own the casino, and for good reason.
It’s only the beginning.
Great discussion and presentations! Very informative and lots of convincing figure-backed arguments. Thanks to both panalists and the hostess!
I like both guests
We can sense that the Western world's fear on the rise of China has grown to the extend that it couldn't even live one day without mentioning China😂
exactly! 😂
Some Chinese kids sneezed in Winter.
The West: OMG a new Covid
🤭
China s economy will grow 5.5% this year， the US economy will probable ly grow 2.7% .only nearly half！ you better talk about the US economy！😂😂😂
The lady speaker is so charming regarding her speech and her looks.
It look like a group of toilet cleaners dicussing company financial issues.
Those never manage 1.4b ppl trying to tell others they have done it.
Karl Marx was a Jew ! Lenin also was partly Jew - wish, believe it or not : even Hitler was ...
in the 21st Century all the nonsense "jew" "wish" can not help the modern world.
It is Asian Century !
History has proven that no country with a decline population can become the strongest power
What "history"? It's only been in the last few decades that countries experienced declining birth rates!
What if everyone else is also having population declines. Never in the history of the world have we experienced the amount of wealth and prosperity we have today. I don’t think data points from the Bronze Age is valid.
China potential : 42% savings rate, 700 to 800 million middle income consumers, not less than 1 million engineers produced a year.....What more do you need?
它们需要每天制造谎言，威胁论😂😂
All the discussions on the Chinese economy are just getting so bleak and farcical. Its just a bunch of neoliberal "economists" and lobbyists "criticizing" something they dont understand and arent qaulified to even think about.
You've been outmoded. Surpassed in every possible way and yet you still think you have something to offer to china? Just stop.
I wish all these were about what we should learn from china instead of this mediocre propaganda
”The leadership is competent"? Come on Mr. Wutte. You should ask Chinese people about this.
This brings back my memory when I was in college attending those student debates about world peace, justice, religious conflicts, world economy, science and technology, future...etc. etc.... years later, when I matured, I realize it's all nonsense and horseshit.
Economics clears things up, macro, developmental, industrial organization, if the principles in these courses are applied it is easy to understand whey China cannot continue to have 140 car manufacturing companies, or why real estate will slow future GDP growth for many years.
Disconnecting,, ask Armerica and or E.U. . do they want cooperation or confrontation? Duh? And or use national security as a means to put up economic barriers?
You realize China is the king of using national security for barriers eh?
Prof. Jin.....steering the narrative
Cyclical about time,,China economy needed to slow down simply uncomplicated?,
So the professor is saying the Covid pandemic is a cyclical factor?
No. not even implied.
Chinese people laugh at white people talk about China.chinese economy will getting better and better jut because we work hard.
Hmm I live in China and know Chinese people who think the economy sucks and don't like the government. They just can't say it out loud or to other Chinese
How about the same people look back what they said if correct as today 2024/5/19?
Wuttke is world class. Jin's key accomplishment is being born well and she completely dismisses the impact of continuing crackdowns on entrepreneurship, not to mention ignoring effective State control of all the companies.
Did she really say Chinese kids care about diversity?
China has gender equality? Uh, show me a female member of the Central Committee or running major companies...
You can come to China and see for yourself, you will be surprised how much you are lied to by your everyday reading.
They are lies, almost all of them.
One trip, it will be crystal clear.
Asia and the global south should look into local infrastructure development and internal consumption for growth. Export model only no longer applies. Trade payment in local currency and commodities exchange. Get out of the paper trades system where others profit from the commission and fees for useless currency trade and speculation
The so-called Chinese Model has been proven false and failed.
Google Asia Society and read its “Our People”. The majority are Americans and all educated in the US. The executive VP had particular focus on Myanmar, Central Asia, and Iran (oil, gas, pipelines) The chief programming officer used to work for mainstream media, the VP of International Security and Policy was an employee of the US State Department, naturally.
interesting that Asia Society is established by non Asian. Whites like to dominant on everything 🙃
Hold my breath, but have to stare at your breath
Chinese is always on time? I am not sure about that.
at least their high-speed trains are.
To be more accurate, the issue is not the real estate market itself, but rather how the communist officials regulate the real estate market.
Professor Jin seems singing the song that was pasted for a couple of years.
China's demographic problem is the old refrain sang by the west. Dr David Goldman said "the whole west suffers from the same demographic disaster".
China 2.0
Taxation and regulation are the enemy's of growth.
Oh no. The blue dress host sounds speaking German, not English. When I listen very carefully, she is speaking English,
Weird ass stage, why make the guests stand?
How about the hostess dress? Never seen anything like that before, even on Star Trek.
Look at history from founding of PRC. West has never been correct once in predicting China.
In from my you tube video in to 4k
900 million earning 300$ per month... that is under developed nation
Means IMF one supermassive power needs by helping to every country
U look alexandria Cortez face 🙆🤔
Came back old China-------past time by MAO.
best analytical metho in new china eco age
真的喜欢西方这种透明开放的风气
这货做了美容手术，原来歪嘴被调正了😂
There is no peak nor new. China continues. These scholars look into China in low level ways, forgeting their own countries'. It is like they are done solving them already.
objective discussion on China related topics around the world is used by racist to see how close they are to the dream, used by Asian internal racists to feel if the discomfort of being taken out of white colonisation is increasing or not, used by Chinese to see how much more work they have to do.
This programme highlight the closed mindset of the west.
basically these have no say on China's economy are talking😂
cheeerleaders for china.
China this, China that!!!!
ASEAN and the First Island Chain are ASIAN STATES TOO!!! You should consider talking about them.
Chopsticks Civilization era !
The year of Dragon starting from Feb.10, 2024 .
Factories in Vietnam will be closed for 1 week, from the 31st of January to the 4th of February. If there are no orders, factories may take an additional week off
It's huge and happens across the whole country. Businesses will shut, attractions will close and everyone will be on the move either to their hometowns or on holiday. Whilst Tết (Lunar New Year) is not necessarily a bad time of year to visit Vietnam, it's important to know what you're going up against.
Karl Marx was a Jew ! Lenin also was partly Jew - wish, believe it or not : even Hitler was ...
in the 21st Century all the nonsense "jew" "wish" can not help the modern world.
It is Asian Century !
She needs to travel to china first hand and not from the cut & paste media.
Singapore is definitely not a democratic country.
Who are funding Asia Society? No need to listen further. Where did the previous fellow go?
Look it up on Wikipedia, as it started in the late 1950s as an attempt to bridge the East-West cultural gap. Rockafellar Family. Was biggest first petroleum company, Standard Oil, a monopoly, broken up into Exxon, Chevron and others.
What do you think? The NED
China China China China
😂😂😂😂😂😂
"In China all the daughters are educated like sons."
Meaning a few years of school and then forced labor camps?
you read too many political bedtime drama!
China has over capacity. That is fact. Over capacity has also led to fierce competition, reduce inflation, high efficiency.and a good time to transit to a more beautiful country
Keyu lies as often as she breathes ... and she breathes a lot.
accusing other without base and reason is such an easy thing, only need to move upper and lower lips, done! Isn't that what Western media are doing day in and day out, as if they breath through lying.
Keyu Jin is about as cringey as she's deceitful.
deceitful of what?
The greatest lier is none other than Gordon Chang.
BBCs is what your mother's into.@monipenny408
Propaganda
if the US even failed to balkanize China during its Maoist years by famine-inducing 30 year embargo, what more now!!! 😂 Imagine if (and I hope) China returns to Maoism now with all the excess grain/food/wheat reserves in the world! Western economists should STOP obsessing on GDP figures in analyzing growth models! 😂
People forget where China climb up from, a die poor country with all the sanctions and embargo, not just from the US/West, but Soviet Union, China was literally punished by two greatest powers in the world. and China suffered also greatly in 90s, nearly all foreign companies left China, over 80 million laid off, mountain high of bad bank accounts... the background for "China collapse 1.0" which has been around for about 30 years, but see where is China now? Now, China collapse 2.0 is at its peak, let see how it goes this time.
Xi-Nese E-V's? Selling in EU? Haha. Good luck with your super reliable piece of crappy, E-Car. Tofu Dreg!
Aren't you tired being wrong all the time?
Philippines finals re-honored as the US's running dog recent years ! I understand you ought to bark loudly to your master's competitor😊
Since the inauguration of Xi, the dictator of the post Mao era, the logic of Chinese economy has already changed. Officials used to strain every sinew to attract investors in order to get a faster promotion but now they are judged by their obedience to Xi.
You know nothing about China. Go back to your cave.
毒轮晕来带方向
习上台后，大力反腐政治社会变清廉了，大力整治环境到处青山绿水，城市发达整洁干净游人如织外国友人无人不惊讶，技术不断进步产业向高端发展，大力扶贫贫困地区发展加快，军事实力大幅成长，科技论文专利领先全球，房地产和互联网乱象得以控制……
US always project itself onto other, that US is a sole dictator of the world, and they are literally forcing every country to be obedient to them or bombardment, sanctions, smearing will be on the way.
Biden's gibberish. We can still understand that he's Alzheimer's, but how do we understand your intelligence?
Keyu the Joke.
Rubbish propaganda
Its painful for her to stand there and see the anti china sentiments., and blame xi jinping stuffs
If u are not there, u won't know the difficulties that China's leadership had been faced since Obama government. We've been surrounded in 2008, ,but had nothing in return, the truth is US sees any second nation as a threat nomatter what they do. Remember plaza accord and Kosova war.
@@hydrocycliu5976 No, West don't remember the history, or they only remember the history in which they are the winners. West are so self-centered that they lack the ability to put themself in other shoes, especially non-whites West think inferior to them.
In the china century dont bet against China
Long live Taiwan!
Wonderful talks from both experts, thanks for sharing this! I noticed most European people are more pragmatical and less ideological than people from the United States
I believe it has to do with certain country's businesses being more dependent on the Chinese internal market, Germany being a good example. Its why Europe preaches a need for de-risking yet there is little action...there are a lot of competing interests within Europe. You will find the countries in Europe less dependent on China for their industries are the ones pushing more for de-risking and the ones who are more dependent that are less aggressive or even pushing back. France is pushing harder for unfair competition practices (subsidies) into Chinese EV makers and Germany not so much... because France doesn't sell a lot of cars in China and stands to get hurt domestically by Chinese EV's... while Germany does sell a lot in China and fears Chinese retaliation for the probe.
Keyu is great!
👍
This German guy was disappoint that Chinese citizens are proud being Chinese.
Wondering why not India is focal point of foreign investments instead of CCP. India has English speaking labour force and infrastructure.
The year of Dragon starting from Feb.10, 2024 .
Factories in Vietnam will be closed for 1 week, from the 31st of January to the 4th of February. If there are no orders, factories may take an additional week off
It's huge and happens across the whole country. Businesses will shut, attractions will close and everyone will be on the move either to their hometowns or on holiday. Whilst Tết (Lunar New Year) is not necessarily a bad time of year to visit Vietnam, it's important to know what you're going up against.
Karl Marx was a Jew ! Lenin also was partly Jew - wish, believe it or not : even Hitler was ...
in the 21st Century all the nonsense "jew" "wish" can not help the modern world.
It is Asian Century !