Hope you’re all having a great start to the week. I want to thank everyone that subscribes and supports the channel, helping it pass 300k subscribers. I’m truly grateful for your support!
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios this 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Very true, you can be passively involved in the markts and still amass wealth-gains using an investment advisor. I first dabbled in stocks late 2019, just before the pandemic, and that same year gained over 150% with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was following directions of my advisor. We are working on a retirement ballpark of $3m and I’m certain my goal isn’t farfetched after subsequent investments and tremendous returns so far.
Sure. There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But I only work with “ Margaret Johnson Arndt ‘ and we have been working together for nearly four years. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. She's well-grounded and known, shouldn't be a hassle finding her page.
The „problem“ with Vici is the same with Banks and insurance companies in general. Algorithms list it as a normal „Dividend“ stock. If you’re sold on the company I‘d use the current environment to dollar cost average. However seeing as Big money makes the company act cyclical you shouldn’t bet against the FED and focus on other shares with more upside potential first…
If anything right now with all REITS (VICI, Realty Income, American Tower, etc.) being down due to high rates for the fed, you are practically given a great return for a 2 year future. You're banking on the fed to lower rates in the next two years, but if it does go down back to 1-2% REITs will go back to where they were. 15% VICI and 25% for Reality Income.
@@_rhin0_590 unhealthy eaters will continue to eat unhealthy even on the drug. They may feel less hungry but when they do eat. What do you think they will eat? Knowing that this drug is and will continue to make them lose weight. There isn’t a drug that makes you love healthy food nor despise unhealthy food. Also there are plenty of people at healthy weights. That consume unhealthy foods.
It’s not that the impact is already being felt but that investors can see what the impact will be as more and more Americans get treated and are selling off in anticipation of where things are headed.
@@MeatyFeet1 unless they have a point. I know we all love to buy fear and sell greed but not every single sell off is a guaranteed buying opportunity. I personally would like to see America slim down and curb its appetite for junk so am not investing in any company that feeds off of people being unhealthy. Maybe it’s time the investors that do try to profit off of encouraging poor health choices get what’s coming to them.
I don’t know a single person who uses these weight loss drugs. Sure its anecdotal but I think if this was going to be a big problem then it would be way more prevalent than it is.
I wanted to get on the one made by Eli Lilly, & my doctor scheduled the blood work, but even with BC/BS paying 80% ( if they do), my doctor said it's about $1,200/ month (total)!!! I have to use all these other products to walk & sleep from skin infections that I caught at Dillard's & Dr.'s offices, so I almost certainly won't be doing it anytime soon. (My husband would have a stroke). I wish Eli Lilly had a cure for doctors who just don't see life-changing skin infections as a big deal!!!! Then, maybe I could buy their drugs!
There are stories, that push the price of a stock higher and higher (before it comes back to ground...). On the other way, there are stories that pull the stock price of a stock deep and deeper down to earth. Remind, also that price will reverse to the mean. People like stories which push the price higher, but they don't like the others. We should love them, because there is the opportunity to get a business at a great price! Don't forget this! Thank you, Josef, die this reminder! 👍😉😎
Ozempic does not reduce your desire for bad foods, it reduces your desire for food in general. The idea that people aren’t going to continue to eat shitty food is nuts. I can remain skinny and eat all the pizza I want? Count me in.
The main issue I find with your VICI thesis is that their buildings really aren't high quality. They are definitely unique in their position on the Vegas strip and the tourism dollars that this will drive. But the actual buildings, while cool, are just tacky and gaudy imitations of real historical architecture. Anyone who's familiar with Europe (Venice, Rome, the Acropolis etc that inspired the Vegas buildings) would recognise that these buildings are just cynical, commercial knock offs. I love a trip to Vegas as much as the next guy, but if you're holding onto VICI because of the idea that they are high quality venues, anyone who's travelled a bit (i.e. the people being targeted as tourist to visit Vegas) would know otherwise. You can get some great food and a nice stay in these places but they are pretty damn tacky and commercial...
I had a boss that thought Las Vegas was "WOW!" Coming from a more conservative background, I just wasn't into it. She "let me go",for something else, I guess, & that just sealed the deal. Vegas is for oldies but goodies on a budget who'll fire the teenage help to go back & gamble some more. Yuck! I'll take an English or Irish pub over the casino crowd, any day.
I agree that you’ve found the reasons for the declines in your stocks. This is my first time watching your channel and I appreciated that you’re not just showing the good side of your book. As far as your conclusion, I would argue that the market is always valuing stocks based on hypotheticals…it’s a forward-looking discounting mechanism. Basically these stocks are getting downgraded by the market due to risk free interest rates being higher for longer and less certainty about future earnings.
I just want to say that i used to watch you, and i haven't watched you for two years. I'm stunned to see the way the figure on your thumbnails has gone up in that time. My portfolio hasn't gone anywhere in that time, and yours has doubled. You are definitely doing something right!
Been buying up both heavy. Texas Roadhouse is at really good price. Have been able to dcf to 94 cost basis. Bici is insultingly low, just a matter of time until intrest rates calm down for that one and even with that into account it’s overly punished.
Tremendous commitment and resolve Joseph. Your video is a terrific reminder to stay educated, passionate with investing, and to remain calm and stay the course. 🙏🏼
I was interested in your take on Texas Roadhouse and the other food companies as regarding Ozempic and "Healthy Eating" I wasa type 2 diabetic and used to take Ozempic for that. I stopped using it almost four years ago, when I found out how it works. I switched to eating fresh foods similar to the Keto Diet. I lost over 130 pounds and reversed my type 2 diabetes in the process. I have friends who want to lose weight and are going crazy over Ozempic and similar drugs. Now some have been using the drug for several months, but what I see is that though they say they are eating healthily, they are dipping back onto the chips, cookies, highly processed foods. While taking more and more of the drug. The drug doesn't help lose weigght or have any health benefit alone. The healthier lifestyle works without the drug. My friends tell me that it is all going to go back to how it was. They will continue to swear that the drug helps them as they consume those processed foods to excess again. This dip in the processed food manufacturers is going to be a blip in the rear view mirror. The actual behavior of the consumer in the long term will go back to the easy processed snack grazing that it has been for about a quarter of a century. It might be worthwhile picking up some of the big food stock, while it's low. Within a decade I'd say things will have reversed as the clamour for the wonder drugs wanes, and we start to see the side effects of the wonder drugs lead to law suits for a wide variety of gut and digestive issues. It might even be worth picking up on those monitoring and health device manufacturers too. Just my opinion not financial advice.
I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months
The current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner.
Having an lnvestment advser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K so far, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
I just looked up the broker you suggested on Google and I'm incredibly impressed with her credentials, so thank you for sharing. I'm going to send her an email right away.
In my opinion, there has been a substantial reallocation of funds from growth/(higher beta stocks) to dividend/(lower beta stocks). If you examine the valuations of many of these lower beta stocks in light of recent fear and panic, you'll notice that a significant portion of them were indeed overvalued. This could be one of the reasons why SCHD (a dividend-focused ETF) hasn't been delivering strong performance lately. Investors seem to be awakening to the notion that the more normal beta stocks were being sold at an excessively pessimistic level compared to what a fair correction would entail. It's good to see the micro when it comes to investing in public companies but don't forget to see the macro as well.
Great 2 finds you earned yourself another subscriber! I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of these go below their current 52 week lows again(at which point why not buy?)
Long term, these two will probably do well if the research you've done is accurate and correct. But short term, you can see that the market is creating lower highs and lower lows. We will probably see more downside for a bit
The stock market offers great opportunities for investors to take advantage of other people's stupidity. Great opportunity to pick up a lot of great companies. Good video.
Its an over reaction and a buying opportunity. Simple as that on Both. I will be adding Vici later this year and continue to build my O and PEP positions
I consider this a big buying opportunity. Novo Nordisk is a great buy. You should consider it. And I also agree these fast food companies are on sale so it’s a good buy. But Novo Nordisk is also a great business, great past performance and dividends and so on. Consider it my guy. Look at the numbers, I’m from Denmark so I’m biased on Novo but look at the numbers. Wegovy and Ozempic is currently ONLY sold in the US, Denmark, Germany and Norway/Sweden just think about when these products can be shipped to everyone. It’s a no brainier even tho it’s very expensive product right now. And so is the stock, but I think it will continue rising. Quality will also have a premium price. Governments are literally favouring this drug it avoid a lot medical treatment for obese people. And therefore tax savings.
I think the sell-off is wide spread. From observation, I see it is more about sector rotation. Consumer cyclicals, & REITs are all getting whacked hard. (I still own some of both, albeit a very sample percentage of my portfolio.) Look at the sectors trending to see this. (say no more)
Vici is one of a kind and no doubt about that. But weight loss drug affects thus far and this fast? I think may be more likely consumer cut back on spending a bit more. But I'm sure txrh will come up w better strategy to bring back those baby back ribs to all time fave high. 😊 The txrh resto near where i live still packed w people every weekends. I'm talking about hours wait time. So let's see where does the management will bring us to.
I think the middle class is being squeezed, and they are the ones that use these places/products more regularly. With student loans coming back due, it compounds the issue. These consumers, instead of TXRH twice a month or drinking a case of pop every 2 weeks, will decrease their consumption. This is a macro trend of cash flows for the middle class.
Thanks for sharing. I think the diet drugs certainly play a role in investors' emotions. But I think inflation itself also plays a role. Personally, I have cut down eating out due to quite a few local restaurants automatically tap on 16% to 18% tips. I end up eating more at home which is cheaper and healthier. I think middle class has been squeezed and in view of the economy uncertainty will affect restaurant stocks. Regarding real estate stocks like VICI will probably has to monitor the funding cost of the company in current high interest rate environment. VICI currently has been selling equity to raise funds, but if stock price stays low will affect its future funding cost.
Vici has already seen very significant drops such as the one in 2020 where it lost almost 60%; but looking at the company's fundamentals during that time period they haven't changed too much negatively. I personally own Vici and am thinking of purchasing more given the current prices.
Hey Joseph how is going? I just saw a video of yours from 3 years ago where this portfolio was only at 77K. I noticed you spoke more about passive income and assets where now your more recent videos are kinda focused on a more value portfolio..has your mindset changed respecting this? Just noticed you used to share your dividend spreadsheets more and now you barely show or talk about any of that. Thanks so much for your content and for helping start my own passive portfolio 1.5 years ago and i love watching the value and dividends grow hand in hand. Hope you see this. Have a good one!
Could you please make a video about a company in infancy stage with big potential something similar to Netflix when it started 🙏 Greatly appreciated !!!
Speaking from a medical standpoint, even though you lose weight on Ozempic, you are not at lower risk for cardiovascular disease, falls, osteoporosis. In some cases that actually makes it worse. The nausea and vomiting it causes is pretty severe and put you at risk for thyroid cancer as well. There is no quick fix. People just need to stop. They’re unhealthy habits.
Manufacturers came up with sugar free options for decades, other diabetes medication has existed for decades, yet there has never been a higher rate of diabetics. Changing eating habits is a real challenge, I don’t see any of those companies at risk because of Ozempic 🤷♀️
He also note that the MINIMUM rent escalotor of VICI is 2% (exluding cpi based escalotors) that is very high for realestate. And also think that your interest rates are locked in at the time of aquisition. The aquisition of the Venetion was done in feb 2022 when the fed rate was near 0 and if you look at the historical aquisitions when rates where low (2019-2022) the cap rates on those aquisitions where anywhere from 6 to 8 percent that is nuts!!! according to my conservative calculations a 8% CAGR is easily duable for VICI (calc is based on dividend growth of (5%-6%)
That CAGR was possible when they could issue cheap debt and not pay back the principal. When maturities start from 2025, this will kill the fantastic growth they had in the past.
@@roelandreijtenbagh5196 Yes, they can have fairly high cap rates but the cost of capital offsets them almost completely. That's why I can see really low single digit returns in this environment and the reason I sold VICI
Every time you mess with your hormones there are side effects over long periods of time. Not the least of which being that your body can stop producing them entirely due to lack of need to do so if the medicine is introducing more artificially. So if you have to stop taking the medicine for some reason you're out of luck for a long time until your body figures out what happened and how to fix it. I don't know if ozempic does introduce more artificially or not, but I'm not going to run out and start taking it so early in its trend cycle.
Thank you for pointing out problems I hadn't considered. My ears ring MORE when I forget to take my pills for that (more than before starting them). I think twins are on the rise, from over-ovulations once people are off the pill, too. It makes sense that if someone stops Ozempic, he or she may start eating double. That Wegovy is supposed to help with strokes, too, though.
I think he missed the part of this drug being used for the wrong reasons currently. It was actually made for people with illness. Diabetes to be more precise. Novo Nordisk has produced Inculin for many years, and that has been a positive influence on people’s lives. So I think we should see Wegoway and Ozempic as similar candidates. People have just been using it because it works, and I also think it will keep on going like that. At some point novo will release it as a product for this case if it’s healthy for long periods of course. That’s my guess.
The macro shows that Q4 will be rough for the consumption. Fed rate hikes should start kicking in for the consumer who reluctantly overspent for the the last 3 quarters. Once this happens, VICI's tenants may feel a bit of a discomfort as their revenues plummet. Or do you believe people will not cut spending on leisure and gambling? Who will then pay for the exorbitant rent to VICI? I think that is the real worry, the price of VICI could easily fall to 15$ as their dividend would be under threat. I would also be worried about Apple, with it's single digit revenue growth and PE of 28, where is the room for stock price growth? Can it do another 100% in 5 years?
I don't think there is anything particular wrong with Vici, but I wouldn't invest in it because I don't like REITs as an asset class. Sure, if you pick the right one you can make good gains for some time, but in the long run, they aren't so amazing. As I'm not really a trader, I prefer to avoid REITs.
I’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 37% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place.
Thanks and all the best on your investing journey. Personally with insights from my advisor I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
One of the main reasons for holding alternative sectors such as Real Estate is for diversification benefits. It clearly is behaving as such in your portfolio as it is less corrolated to your other holdings. You got to be certain of your holding period. With the market pricing in interest rates to remain higher for longer, it could be a while before price action on Reit's start to perform again. With a 3+ year time horizon, there might be some good buying opportunities on the horizon. Further shocks could cause mispricing of such assets. It would be interesting to also look at forecasts of VICI's earnings.
market manipulation and a while bunch of irrationality! Before covid I lost over 100 lbs doing carnivore Beef, butter, bacon, eggs. Then I did a wieght lifting diet called the vertical diet. After a year into covid and my 3 days a week lifting at the gym with a friend stoped I gained 40 lbs back. 60 days ago I started carnivore again and lost 32 of those lbs. I got 8 more to go but I plan to stick with carnivore because I feel great and believe in it long term. ANYWAYS, I eat 2 or so pounds of beef a day and I'd love to go to Texas Roadhouse if we had one near me. People will slip back into being fat come the holidays with all the get together food events!
Only building materials have alot more to gain in a nation where home building is heavily supported by the government. See Dupont, Owen Corning, Westlake.
Restaurants are always the very first to face all 3 negative front lines in any downturn head-on;workers 'demands, supply inflation and a weaker consumer. A restaurant menu that needs heavy customisation n preparation will do even worst. Anyway Viatris the generic drug maker could be making ozempic equivalent soon since the drug is actually a diabetes drug in the first place.
Hope you’re all having a great start to the week. I want to thank everyone that subscribes and supports the channel, helping it pass 300k subscribers. I’m truly grateful for your support!
deserved
Your consistency and level-headed thinking is a great example for investors! 🍔
Incredible content, always. Thank you for all you do Joseph
I think you really missed the biggest point why these stocks trade down this year! ...it's because I bought into them... 😭
Thanks for making me feel like I'm not the only one.
same here@@georgesand6958
One thing it’s clarified. Joseph has never been in Europe 😂
I know, Vegas is the least 'elegant' place I've ever been to
These properties are like the Roman Empire but twice as nice
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios this 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Very true, you can be passively involved in the markts and still amass wealth-gains using an investment advisor. I first dabbled in stocks late 2019, just before the pandemic, and that same year gained over 150% with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was following directions of my advisor. We are working on a retirement ballpark of $3m and I’m certain my goal isn’t farfetched after subsequent investments and tremendous returns so far.
Sure. There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But I only work with “ Margaret Johnson Arndt ‘ and we have been working together for nearly four years. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. She's well-grounded and known, shouldn't be a hassle finding her page.
I think this is only a great add on opportunity for companies like TXRH, PEP, KO, etc. Awesome stuff man, always love your content!
The „problem“ with Vici is the same with Banks and insurance companies in general. Algorithms list it as a normal „Dividend“ stock. If you’re sold on the company I‘d use the current environment to dollar cost average. However seeing as Big money makes the company act cyclical you shouldn’t bet against the FED and focus on other shares with more upside potential first…
If anything right now with all REITS (VICI, Realty Income, American Tower, etc.) being down due to high rates for the fed, you are practically given a great return for a 2 year future. You're banking on the fed to lower rates in the next two years, but if it does go down back to 1-2% REITs will go back to where they were. 15% VICI and 25% for Reality Income.
There’s no way there’s enough Americans on that drug to slow sales. Its just the economy and collective fear.
not yet
@@_rhin0_590 unhealthy eaters will continue to eat unhealthy even on the drug. They may feel less hungry but when they do eat. What do you think they will eat? Knowing that this drug is and will continue to make them lose weight. There isn’t a drug that makes you love healthy food nor despise unhealthy food. Also there are plenty of people at healthy weights. That consume unhealthy foods.
It’s not that the impact is already being felt but that investors can see what the impact will be as more and more Americans get treated and are selling off in anticipation of where things are headed.
@@BusterDarcy yes, collective fear. Great for people looking to buy low
@@MeatyFeet1 unless they have a point. I know we all love to buy fear and sell greed but not every single sell off is a guaranteed buying opportunity. I personally would like to see America slim down and curb its appetite for junk so am not investing in any company that feeds off of people being unhealthy. Maybe it’s time the investors that do try to profit off of encouraging poor health choices get what’s coming to them.
I don’t know a single person who uses these weight loss drugs. Sure its anecdotal but I think if this was going to be a big problem then it would be way more prevalent than it is.
Pretty sure rich people buying drugs and poor people eating at burger king dont overlap
Here’s my anecdotal evidence, I know one person and they still eat unhealthy. I think blaming it all on one drug is insane
Almost coping
I wanted to get on the one made by Eli Lilly, & my doctor scheduled the blood work, but even with BC/BS paying 80% ( if they do), my doctor said it's about $1,200/ month (total)!!! I have to use all these other products to walk & sleep from skin infections that I caught at Dillard's & Dr.'s offices, so I almost certainly won't be doing it anytime soon. (My husband would have a stroke). I wish Eli Lilly had a cure for doctors who just don't see life-changing skin infections as a big deal!!!! Then, maybe I could buy their drugs!
We can't afford the $1,200 Eli Lilly drug.
MED has been hammered, going to keep holding and adding. Theres always something to make the market go up or down, ignoring fundamentals
Joseph puts it all out there
The good and the bad,
A great channel for solid information.
what is the stock ticker? NVO?
Thank you. I bought TXRH because of your video....gonna keep buying till I get 1,000$ in dividend annually.
Keep it transparent and keep up the great work.
I noticed the same with MCD and QSR, my thoughts were Ozempic as well
Consider buying Novo Nordisk?
Sorry - TXRH went down because I bought shares.
I'd be interested in your comments on why the stock of SPGL hasn't been doing so well.
There are stories, that push the price of a stock higher and higher (before it comes back to ground...). On the other way, there are stories that pull the stock price of a stock deep and deeper down to earth. Remind, also that price will reverse to the mean. People like stories which push the price higher, but they don't like the others. We should love them, because there is the opportunity to get a business at a great price!
Don't forget this!
Thank you, Josef, die this reminder! 👍😉😎
Ozempic does not reduce your desire for bad foods, it reduces your desire for food in general. The idea that people aren’t going to continue to eat shitty food is nuts. I can remain skinny and eat all the pizza I want? Count me in.
The main issue I find with your VICI thesis is that their buildings really aren't high quality. They are definitely unique in their position on the Vegas strip and the tourism dollars that this will drive. But the actual buildings, while cool, are just tacky and gaudy imitations of real historical architecture. Anyone who's familiar with Europe (Venice, Rome, the Acropolis etc that inspired the Vegas buildings) would recognise that these buildings are just cynical, commercial knock offs.
I love a trip to Vegas as much as the next guy, but if you're holding onto VICI because of the idea that they are high quality venues, anyone who's travelled a bit (i.e. the people being targeted as tourist to visit Vegas) would know otherwise. You can get some great food and a nice stay in these places but they are pretty damn tacky and commercial...
I had a boss that thought Las Vegas was "WOW!" Coming from a more conservative background, I just wasn't into it. She "let me go",for something else, I guess, & that just sealed the deal. Vegas is for oldies but goodies on a budget who'll fire the teenage help to go back & gamble some more. Yuck!
I'll take an English or Irish pub over the casino crowd, any day.
I agree that you’ve found the reasons for the declines in your stocks. This is my first time watching your channel and I appreciated that you’re not just showing the good side of your book. As far as your conclusion, I would argue that the market is always valuing stocks based on hypotheticals…it’s a forward-looking discounting mechanism. Basically these stocks are getting downgraded by the market due to risk free interest rates being higher for longer and less certainty about future earnings.
I just want to say that i used to watch you, and i haven't watched you for two years. I'm stunned to see the way the figure on your thumbnails has gone up in that time. My portfolio hasn't gone anywhere in that time, and yours has doubled. You are definitely doing something right!
I’ve been slowly adding shares of VICI thanks to your insightful videos. Thanks Joseph! 🎉
me too!
Congrats on 300k subs!
Thanks for the update my friend 👍
Buying more TXRH not a bad idea
done
Thanks for the update to ease the worries
Been buying up both heavy. Texas Roadhouse is at really good price. Have been able to dcf to 94 cost basis. Bici is insultingly low, just a matter of time until intrest rates calm down for that one and even with that into account it’s overly punished.
Great video, yet again! People forget that KO also sells many other drinks, including healthier ones now.
Hi Joeseph, good video. What do you think of CCI ?
Another good video. Any comments on what's going on with M1 closing their checking/savings/cc accounts?
Analyst thinking airline companies will be more efficient because passengers will be less heavier is as comical as it gets.
Speaking of underperforming stocks, any idea why CP has been underperforming all of the other railroads lately?
Tremendous commitment and resolve Joseph. Your video is a terrific reminder to stay educated, passionate with investing, and to remain calm and stay the course. 🙏🏼
Thank you, Fantastic information.
Danke!!! Nice video 👍👍
I was interested in your take on Texas Roadhouse and the other food companies as regarding Ozempic and "Healthy Eating"
I wasa type 2 diabetic and used to take Ozempic for that. I stopped using it almost four years ago, when I found out how it works. I switched to eating fresh foods similar to the Keto Diet. I lost over 130 pounds and reversed my type 2 diabetes in the process.
I have friends who want to lose weight and are going crazy over Ozempic and similar drugs. Now some have been using the drug for several months, but what I see is that though they say they are eating healthily, they are dipping back onto the chips, cookies, highly processed foods. While taking more and more of the drug.
The drug doesn't help lose weigght or have any health benefit alone. The healthier lifestyle works without the drug.
My friends tell me that it is all going to go back to how it was. They will continue to swear that the drug helps them as they consume those processed foods to excess again.
This dip in the processed food manufacturers is going to be a blip in the rear view mirror.
The actual behavior of the consumer in the long term will go back to the easy processed snack grazing that it has been for about a quarter of a century. It might be worthwhile picking up some of the big food stock, while it's low. Within a decade I'd say things will have reversed as the clamour for the wonder drugs wanes, and we start to see the side effects of the wonder drugs lead to law suits for a wide variety of gut and digestive issues. It might even be worth picking up on those monitoring and health device manufacturers too.
Just my opinion not financial advice.
I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months
The current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner.
Having an lnvestment advser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K so far, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
that's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you.
credits to LEILA SIMOES PINTO, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up
I just looked up the broker you suggested on Google and I'm incredibly impressed with her credentials, so thank you for sharing. I'm going to send her an email right away.
In my opinion, there has been a substantial reallocation of funds from growth/(higher beta stocks) to dividend/(lower beta stocks). If you examine the valuations of many of these lower beta stocks in light of recent fear and panic, you'll notice that a significant portion of them were indeed overvalued. This could be one of the reasons why SCHD (a dividend-focused ETF) hasn't been delivering strong performance lately. Investors seem to be awakening to the notion that the more normal beta stocks were being sold at an excessively pessimistic level compared to what a fair correction would entail. It's good to see the micro when it comes to investing in public companies but don't forget to see the macro as well.
Ozempic is used for diabetes type-2 disease and reduces wait as well.
Great 2 finds you earned yourself another subscriber! I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of these go below their current 52 week lows again(at which point why not buy?)
Thanks Joseph.
Long term, these two will probably do well if the research you've done is accurate and correct. But short term, you can see that the market is creating lower highs and lower lows. We will probably see more downside for a bit
Cereal sales are down, soda sales are down. It’s not just the drug, slowly people are dialing back carbs and sugar
have you looked into vici share count. Looks like they keep dilluting. might be why long term sideway action.
Good luck getting the health insurance companies to put up $1000 a month shot.
The stock market offers great opportunities for investors to take advantage of other people's stupidity. Great opportunity to pick up a lot of great companies. Good video.
Joseph has much wisdom... thx bro
Interesting analysis, I was wondering the same.
Vegas is a dump. The old model of gambling is over.
Listen to Joseph at 0.5 speed and he sounds piss drunk.
Its an over reaction and a buying opportunity. Simple as that on Both. I will be adding Vici later this year and continue to build my O and PEP positions
Yep I'd agree in O and Pep and considering vici more now
Be careful with VICI and maturities, because that will severely hurt shareholders. Read the comment I left for Joseph.
Hold on since when did a steak become unhealthy?
I have been buying O and VICI for the last moth big time i think the up side on both are big.
Be careful with VICI and maturities, because that will severely hurt shareholders. Read the comment I left in this video explaining everything.
I consider this a big buying opportunity. Novo Nordisk is a great buy. You should consider it. And I also agree these fast food companies are on sale so it’s a good buy. But Novo Nordisk is also a great business, great past performance and dividends and so on. Consider it my guy.
Look at the numbers, I’m from Denmark so I’m biased on Novo but look at the numbers. Wegovy and Ozempic is currently ONLY sold in the US, Denmark, Germany and Norway/Sweden just think about when these products can be shipped to everyone. It’s a no brainier even tho it’s very expensive product right now. And so is the stock, but I think it will continue rising. Quality will also have a premium price.
Governments are literally favouring this drug it avoid a lot medical treatment for obese people. And therefore tax savings.
Is Vici a monthly payer or quarterly dividend payer?
Las Vegas up close,… 🤮🤮
I think the sell-off is wide spread. From observation, I see it is more about sector rotation. Consumer cyclicals, & REITs are all getting whacked hard. (I still own some of both, albeit a very sample percentage of my portfolio.) Look at the sectors trending to see this. (say no more)
The more beautiful and posh the properties the more expensive they are to maintain!
Love this content, always unemotional and pragmatic analysis ! I was wondering Joseph, where do you fetch the data that is displayed on qualtrim ?
Vici is one of a kind and no doubt about that. But weight loss drug affects thus far and this fast? I think may be more likely consumer cut back on spending a bit more. But I'm sure txrh will come up w better strategy to bring back those baby back ribs to all time fave high. 😊
The txrh resto near where i live still packed w people every weekends. I'm talking about hours wait time. So let's see where does the management will bring us to.
I tried to join patreon but without success. 😢
I think the middle class is being squeezed, and they are the ones that use these places/products more regularly. With student loans coming back due, it compounds the issue. These consumers, instead of TXRH twice a month or drinking a case of pop every 2 weeks, will decrease their consumption. This is a macro trend of cash flows for the middle class.
11:10 I believe that is because of Mr Beast
Thanks for sharing. I think the diet drugs certainly play a role in investors' emotions. But I think inflation itself also plays a role. Personally, I have cut down eating out due to quite a few local restaurants automatically tap on 16% to 18% tips. I end up eating more at home which is cheaper and healthier. I think middle class has been squeezed and in view of the economy uncertainty will affect restaurant stocks. Regarding real estate stocks like VICI will probably has to monitor the funding cost of the company in current high interest rate environment. VICI currently has been selling equity to raise funds, but if stock price stays low will affect its future funding cost.
Vici has already seen very significant drops such as the one in 2020 where it lost almost 60%; but looking at the company's fundamentals during that time period they haven't changed too much negatively. I personally own Vici and am thinking of purchasing more given the current prices.
Hey Joseph how is going? I just saw a video of yours from 3 years ago where this portfolio was only at 77K. I noticed you spoke more about passive income and assets where now your more recent videos are kinda focused on a more value portfolio..has your mindset changed respecting this? Just noticed you used to share your dividend spreadsheets more and now you barely show or talk about any of that. Thanks so much for your content and for helping start my own passive portfolio 1.5 years ago and i love watching the value and dividends grow hand in hand. Hope you see this. Have a good one!
Unfortunately our brain is hardwired to pleasure, doesn't matter it's sugary food or porn😂
Doesn’t matter what the property there’s no good reason to risk on commercial real estate rn brooooo
Steak isn’t good food?? I’m mind blown
I'm good with my reinvested dividends buying more Vici when it's cheaper.
That ozempic argument is so fucking unserious 😂😂😂
I wouldnt call vegas elegant btw
Could you please make a video about a company in infancy stage with big potential something similar to Netflix when it started 🙏
Greatly appreciated !!!
Gotta protect the downside, capture gains particularly in an overbought setting…some of these selloffs were easily predictable (i.e. Tx Roadhouse)
Speaking from a medical standpoint, even though you lose weight on Ozempic, you are not at lower risk for cardiovascular disease, falls, osteoporosis. In some cases that actually makes it worse. The nausea and vomiting it causes is pretty severe and put you at risk for thyroid cancer as well. There is no quick fix. People just need to stop. They’re unhealthy habits.
Also some reports of gut paralysis
Manufacturers came up with sugar free options for decades, other diabetes medication has existed for decades, yet there has never been a higher rate of diabetics. Changing eating habits is a real challenge, I don’t see any of those companies at risk because of Ozempic 🤷♀️
Great content
I now believe Joseph Carlson is a genius. I wish I could buy stock in him
😂😂
Weird that you think steak isn’t healthy
He also note that the MINIMUM rent escalotor of VICI is 2% (exluding cpi based escalotors) that is very high for realestate. And also think that your interest rates are locked in at the time of aquisition. The aquisition of the Venetion was done in feb 2022 when the fed rate was near 0 and if you look at the historical aquisitions when rates where low (2019-2022) the cap rates on those aquisitions where anywhere from 6 to 8 percent that is nuts!!! according to my conservative calculations a 8% CAGR is easily duable for VICI (calc is based on dividend growth of (5%-6%)
That CAGR was possible when they could issue cheap debt and not pay back the principal. When maturities start from 2025, this will kill the fantastic growth they had in the past.
@@RafitoMembroza I agree the macro is far from optimal but with recent aquisitions with cap rates of 8% growing is still possible.
@@roelandreijtenbagh5196 Yes, they can have fairly high cap rates but the cost of capital offsets them almost completely. That's why I can see really low single digit returns in this environment and the reason I sold VICI
I bought more TXRH at these prices. A steak is NOT unhealthy!
Do you have any stocks on your watch list that you are ready to invest in?
I still believe that it is better to hold index funds, if you miss out on the biggest winners, your return will be abysmal.
Remember when Joseph was bullish on AT&T? And Disney?
Every time you mess with your hormones there are side effects over long periods of time. Not the least of which being that your body can stop producing them entirely due to lack of need to do so if the medicine is introducing more artificially. So if you have to stop taking the medicine for some reason you're out of luck for a long time until your body figures out what happened and how to fix it. I don't know if ozempic does introduce more artificially or not, but I'm not going to run out and start taking it so early in its trend cycle.
Thank you for pointing out problems I hadn't considered. My ears ring MORE when I forget to take my pills for that (more than before starting them). I think twins are on the rise, from over-ovulations once people are off the pill, too. It makes sense that if someone stops Ozempic, he or she may start eating double.
That Wegovy is supposed to help with strokes, too, though.
I think he missed the part of this drug being used for the wrong reasons currently. It was actually made for people with illness. Diabetes to be more precise. Novo Nordisk has produced Inculin for many years, and that has been a positive influence on people’s lives. So I think we should see Wegoway and Ozempic as similar candidates.
People have just been using it because it works, and I also think it will keep on going like that. At some point novo will release it as a product for this case if it’s healthy for long periods of course. That’s my guess.
Dicey video man
The macro shows that Q4 will be rough for the consumption. Fed rate hikes should start kicking in for the consumer who reluctantly overspent for the the last 3 quarters. Once this happens, VICI's tenants may feel a bit of a discomfort as their revenues plummet. Or do you believe people will not cut spending on leisure and gambling? Who will then pay for the exorbitant rent to VICI? I think that is the real worry, the price of VICI could easily fall to 15$ as their dividend would be under threat. I would also be worried about Apple, with it's single digit revenue growth and PE of 28, where is the room for stock price growth? Can it do another 100% in 5 years?
Thank god for my NVO stocks
I don't think there is anything particular wrong with Vici, but I wouldn't invest in it because I don't like REITs as an asset class. Sure, if you pick the right one you can make good gains for some time, but in the long run, they aren't so amazing. As I'm not really a trader, I prefer to avoid REITs.
I’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 37% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place.
Amazing well done! Which companies have performed best for you?
Thanks and all the best on your investing journey. Personally with insights from my advisor I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
Geez, strong performance in 2023. Congrats! Kick down those Wall Street doors
I’d say your IA is doing a great job protecting your portfolio. More still impressive as you’re making fortunes in these turbulent times!
I’d choose expertise any day because finding the right balance between investing and living is very important to me.
One of the main reasons for holding alternative sectors such as Real Estate is for diversification benefits. It clearly is behaving as such in your portfolio as it is less corrolated to your other holdings. You got to be certain of your holding period. With the market pricing in interest rates to remain higher for longer, it could be a while before price action on Reit's start to perform again. With a 3+ year time horizon, there might be some good buying opportunities on the horizon. Further shocks could cause mispricing of such assets. It would be interesting to also look at forecasts of VICI's earnings.
market manipulation and a while bunch of irrationality! Before covid I lost over 100 lbs doing carnivore Beef, butter, bacon, eggs. Then I did a wieght lifting diet called the vertical diet. After a year into covid and my 3 days a week lifting at the gym with a friend stoped I gained 40 lbs back. 60 days ago I started carnivore again and lost 32 of those lbs. I got 8 more to go but I plan to stick with carnivore because I feel great and believe in it long term. ANYWAYS, I eat 2 or so pounds of beef a day and I'd love to go to Texas Roadhouse if we had one near me. People will slip back into being fat come the holidays with all the get together food events!
always giving you a like for your great videos
You made 82k interest and saved over 400k principle at a young age what a chad
Vici bolero review please
Encore in Boston ruined MGM in Springfield
Only building materials have alot more to gain in a nation where home building is heavily supported by the government. See Dupont, Owen Corning, Westlake.
There are not enough people using the drug to account for all of the drops, its like 800 a shot.
Restaurants are always the very first to face all 3 negative front lines in any downturn head-on;workers 'demands, supply inflation and a weaker consumer. A restaurant menu that needs heavy customisation n preparation will do even worst. Anyway Viatris the generic drug maker could be making ozempic equivalent soon since the drug is actually a diabetes drug in the first place.
Why are you not investing in OHI? Divident rate is much higher than VICI and company business is much more stable?
Sooo keep buying VICI then? Got it