📈 Patreon community with over 3,500 members, includes access to Qualtrim.com: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson 🎥 More free content: www.youtube.com/@JosephCarlsonAfterHours 🐦 I post random thoughts on Twitter too: twitter.com/joecarlsonshow
Hi Joseph, great content as always. Are you planning to add maybe a healthcare stock to your portfolio? I remember you recently talked about UNH which is trading down this year and I think it's a good entry point at 460 or less (very high adjusted fcf yield).
Heads up on Apple. 91% of apples manufacturing is in China. I think they have figured out they are in a bad spot, as they have moved Ipod production to Vietnam. But China is talking about companies not being allowed to have personal IP. So I fear they will take a huge hit if they have to flee china and rebuild somewhere else.
Hi Joseph, Long time fan here. Been following you for 7 months now. I'm learning so much from you, even though i do not copy paste your positions, i really learn from your way of contextualising and rationalising the market. Furthermore you are the living example of having a thick skin, i have nothing but respect for your way of dealing with the Netflix mega-dip! that was ice cold man... Furthermore i love the fact that you dare to make the call, and have skin in the game. In this video, you had the courage to say that CP and Union Pacific are buys, and that Apple and Microsoft are too hot now... few people do that... so thank you. Also.. the patreon is insane I have just one suggestion for you/your channel: A crucial portion of an investors portfolio is cash.. In times of great excitement like these ones, i think it would perhaps be interesting to look at what should be done with cash. Accumulate a cash position, and get ready for market corrections/dips? Or follow your mantra and always stay invested (buying at a low price)? Feeling conflicted
Hello Joseph! Just wanted to say thanks for everything you do. I'm finishing my bachelor's degree and I'm very excited to, in a near future start my financial journey. I'm from Europe, and i just wanted to thank you for all your hard work and transparency. Loved the video! :)
The saddest thing is that my portolio is being lead by a utility company. It is up like 47% so.... yeah. Just behind that is Kroger and Apple. I'll take the W's as they come. Love the content.
If possible @joseph can you make an episode how to calculate intristic value of a company. The numbers you calculated once are not useful if they can not be re-calculated again
Currently I'm just being smart and frugal with my money, I'm in the green 47% over the last 15 months and l've accumulated over $700K in pure profits from DCA’ing into stocks, ETFs, dividends and futures. However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait.
@@AlbertGReene-p8w I agree. Having an investment advisor is the best way to go. Based on a direct encounter with a CFP named NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, I can say with certainty that their skills are excellent. She helped raise over $580,000 in 18 months from an initially stagnant portfolio of $150,000.
Hi Joseph., just a thanks for another great episode. Although I follow you quite often I might have missed that hence the question. Is there an intrinsic value calculator in Qualtrim? Or have you shared it anywhere else ? I’d appreciate your answer! Many Thanks!!
Hi Joseph, great video! At 8:20 you are discussing your fair value calculation results. Is there a video that you discuss how you are coming to your conclusions, and how you are calculating your DCF? Thanks a bunch!
I sold my COST at 525 a couple days ago. Been holding and buying since around 200. I’ve felt for a while that COST is overpriced, but the motivator to sell is that I’m becoming disappointed with the quality and value of Costco’s goods and services. For the first time in 10 years I’m considering cancelling my membership and from who I’ve talked to, I’m not the only one.
testing the "do nothing" part of terry smiths plan. don't sell. but surely the inputs to your valuation model in that video have updated since? are the under/fair/over valuation the same as they were then for costco et al?
I got into Microsoft at $254, I loaded the boat a few months ago, it makes up 33% of my portfolio and I'm perfectly fine with holding this for at least the next decade.
@@samual8299i just sold when we hit all time high the game its to buy low and sell at 52 week time high. We will have another sell off tech went on insane run and what goes up must come down
Thank you for the great content, it will be really appreciated if you can make more videos about undervalued and fair valued companies. Also does quantum display and update fair value estimates ?
On the TikTok portion at the end, they are emphasizing scale. The same way 43,000 people watch this video or hundreds of thousands of people watch your videos. If you’re able to sell a product or a Patreon or an affiliate link you can make money at scale. On the internet you are able to scale now more than ever.
Your model is more hope and pray, you should have exits on positions, Rcl has more then doubled my entry I’m out I’ll take my profits and go ccl is close into double might dump that too
Its a funny thing when you look at NVDA's price then run the number through Graham's Original or Revised Valuation formula, and they come back $122.58(original) $69.42(revised) and the actual price is $426.92 its hard not to see the greed thats in the current price. even a DCFV $340.22 or DDMV $244.55 4 different valuation models all with well under current price... its over 90% overvalued practically...
Would it be possible to do a video on discounted cash flow valuation method with your opinion on it and how to do it? Also would it be possible to make a video on how you’re evaluating companies? And thank you for the amazing work
Joseph love the video hold some similar positions as you and feel the same way as you. I’m interested to know you’re thoughts on nasdaq with their recent acquisition, I don’t hate it as much as the market does and they’re definitely a monopolistic company but do feel some risks with the company and am searching for the certainty to pull the trigger on them. I would like to see it trade a little lower but at very curious about your thoughts
AVGO is up 32% in the past month and AVGO has a great AI moat with the Jericho 3 AI chip that everyone who is building up there AI infrastructure will need. AVGO dividends are much better than Apple, Microsoft or Nvidia.
@@Yahniboy AVGO is a tough one to figure out, it sat at 630 for such a long time before it jumped up past 800+. Everytime in the past when I sold I've regretted it. I would wait and sell right before earnings as hype always builds before earnings.
Isn't CP somewhat overvalued relative to it's peers? UP is really cheap, but I'm considering CP. Please tell something about your choices on these two and not the other rail roads. Almost all are cash flow machines.
Amazing video as always. I am so grateful for your channel which helps me to grow step by step at my mid-age. May I ask you if you could do an example stock video how you evaluate and what specific trends are driving your decision? Many thanks a lot. I am hoping your channel continue to grow so more people can use it to learn.
I haven't watched this yet, but I'll just say to be careful taking profits in your winners just because it's running up of late. I took profits in Tesla just 2 weeks ago because it was up 100% YTD, and it was too large a percentage of my portfolio so I wanted to diversify the risk. I could have sold it for like $40 more a share if I had sold it today instead, so I missed out on over $9,000 of profit. :( Bottom line, it's hard to find a good time to sell any winners, and easy to regret selling too soon, especially in a bull market like this.
adding on to the absurdity of asking a million people for a dollar, remember that the last Super Bowl had just under 70 thousand fans in attendance. To be a millionaire you would need to just get a dollar from just over the attendance level of 14 Super Bowls... its just that easy!
Market down is a buy opportunity. I prefer etfs because I'm lazy but I choose these to take the top performers in more sectors so I have minimal overlap. I have modest desires and no need to 10XBRO. too stressful
Microsoft Cloud has grown at a 22% CAGR over the past 5 years and has had an average 38% Op margin. Microsoft Productivity has grown at a 16% CAGR over the past 5 years and has had an average 41% Op margin. Microsoft PC has grown at a 9% CAGR over the past 5 years and has had an average 30% Op margin. Assume sustained margins and 10 years of revenue growth at 20%, 15% and 9% respectively. Assume that 30% of profits will be distributed as a dividend and 30% as buybacks, as they currently do. Applying a 15% tax rate, a terminal multiple of 20 (for a company that will, by that time, have 860b in revenue, so good luck growing that in saturated markets...) and discounting at 10%, you get your "fair" value of $350. So assuming a normal multiple, fair value means that the company NEEDS to grow and execute perfectly over a decade in order for you to earn a 10% return. What if we are more realistic and growth slows down? So Cloud grows 15% for 5 years anf then 10% for 5 more years; Productivity 10/7% and PC 7/5%. All else equal we are down to $215. What if the market doesn't like the company so much and the multiple contracts to 15 (Almighty Apple's multiple stayed subdued for a while in the early 2010s when the future was not looking so bright)? Then we are down to $175. We could do the same with the entire portfolio: there are way too many expectations priced into this companies. The market seems to have forgotten what happened in 2000.
Also, do keep in mind high levels of greed are very common in bull markets - technically, this is where we are; greed is highest in 2 years because we're in a better place overall. Only time and patience will tell.
Great companies at a fair price are better than fair companies at a great price. Last year was the rare great companies at a great price. But will keep adding to mega cap tech through etfs and individual holdings. Maybe less aggressively than last year, but adding to losers because they are cheaper rather than winners of a portfolio is so often a mistake long term. Water the flowers, not the weeds.
Hi Joseph, i really like your high quality videos. My performence has improved a lot since i subscribed to your channel. I'm curious to know what you think of unitedhealth because I feel like this fine company is lagging behind the market?
I understand selling for some gains...but Apple and Microsoft?? They will be growing for next 20 yrs? Why would you want to be out of them? Ever? Great content as always.
The other issue is one frequently ignored on TH-cam: *when did you buy?* Apple is up 48% if you bought in January, but it's only up 6% if you bought last August, which is hardly "sell and take the gains" money. Another perspective is if you bought in in Dec 2018 like I did, meaning it's up 390%. Cut and run, or let it ride knowing there are more gains like that coming?
For me, a stock running up is not a good enough reason to sell. I have a 10-yr horizon so unless the company’s story has changed and i don’t need the money, I just hold.
Was that different in the past? I agree with you, but am I an buy n hold investor, if I nsell now? I don't think so. Like downside hand turnovers, tech has been the motor
I'm not an investor as yet but finding ways to make more money while you wait on your investments makes alotta sense in my head. Could start a business or side hustle. Great video.
Indeed, tech is getting a bit expensive. I did sell some of my Meta as I mentioned in my last video. Up quite a lot on it but the current trend appears to be quite bullish so I do think it could go up a bit more in the short term. Pretty awesome though !
Microsoft has a 12x Sales Ratio and Apple 7x Sales Ratio. At 10x Sales Ratio it means that the Company has too return 100% of the revenue as a dividend for the next 10 years to grow into the valuation …
If you plan on keeping these long term you're okay. Today Microsoft is expensive at 351.47 but in 4-5 years from now you'll wish you got it at that price when the price has gone to 400-500/share. I buy 1 share of NVDA biweekly still.
@@23chnge beautiful!!! I'm sure at some point experts were like "OMG it's at 18.00 it's so expensive." You buy slowly as it goes up and double down if it comes down. If the company is solid it'll return and move higher up. I'm jealous btw lol
Great video as always. Just one suggestion: both your undervalued and overvalued range are way too close to the fair value. This is like saying "I'm sure that my valuation model is right." This can be the case for one company, but it certainly isn't for all companies on your list
Your free cash flow per share metric is great way to value a company. I learned it from you and want to thank you for the effort you put in the content. Sometimes I don’t agree with some analysis but overall I’ve learned a lot from your work and way of thinking/analyzing
Hi Joseph, I saw someone mention there's a new bill aimed to end the duopoly of MA and V. What are your thoughts on this potential threat to such great stock(MA)? Also, I guess if I stand next to I-45(TX) on the feeder road during my off work hours I can get my portfolio to 100k Pretty fast lol.
When did you sell Starbucks? I remember you had about 25k in it, or more; did I miss an episode? Does anyone know where he goes over why he cut down his exposure to Starbucks?
Five years from now, Apple will look cheap today. It’s the same thing any time Apple looks too expensive. Just buy it and see if you still feel the same way five years later. You won’t.
I can't see companies at 40 PE being priced at fair value. 15 is the historical average and I would pay 18-20 PE for a high moat company like Apple, Microsoft or other big tech, BUT 40? Hell nah!
Joseph you produce one of the finest content on youtube hats off to you, this guy is true to his words and a stoic. I will save a till and try to join you Patreon an support you man
I recently inherited almost $500k. I REALLY need to make this money work for me, and not just disappear over time. I've been scrambling for somewhere to put the money, where I can make an effort to use the gains to pay bills so I can quit my job . All roads have pointed to the financial market of some sort which is a good idea buh where else should I put money besides the financial market? We have a 13% RPI rate so cash is tough.
Yep great question and that’s always the one - where would you rather be if you have an option. Personally I’m always invested aside from a small emergency fund. Financial-market for me seem the only way forward with my long time horizon (accrued almost $1.4m in gains since 2020 ) but if you don’t have that fortune of time it’s a tough market out there almost nowhere feels safe! . Just know the risk you're comfortable with . Mistake is expensive
very informative, one option I suppose is, if you were to invest a set amount buy the whole share in a ETF and the remainder could go into a index for which would allow you to purchase the fractional shares, is that an option?
well a million in profit is a nice milestone, how did you achieve that? I guess you have a proven trading strategy that you've spent a lot on please share more info !! and YES i dont want to make
Lol, I began with an Advisor by name Camille Anne Hector. She’s sec verified and an ISDA member. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my portfolio and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI.
Found her website easily it was like the frist thing that came up when I searched on her name and also her mail address I will surely touch bases with her to see what's the best step for me to take rn. THANK YOU.
📈 Patreon community with over 3,500 members, includes access to Qualtrim.com: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
🎥 More free content: www.youtube.com/@JosephCarlsonAfterHours
🐦 I post random thoughts on Twitter too: twitter.com/joecarlsonshow
Hi Joseph, great content as always. Are you planning to add maybe a healthcare stock to your portfolio? I remember you recently talked about UNH which is trading down this year and I think it's a good entry point at 460 or less (very high adjusted fcf yield).
Hi Joseph
Could you please discuss PG
Heads up on Apple. 91% of apples manufacturing is in China. I think they have figured out they are in a bad spot, as they have moved Ipod production to Vietnam. But China is talking about companies not being allowed to have personal IP. So I fear they will take a huge hit if they have to flee china and rebuild somewhere else.
@N.A.S.A there is no formula for intrinsic value
Hi Joseph,
Long time fan here. Been following you for 7 months now. I'm learning so much from you, even though i do not copy paste your positions, i really learn from your way of contextualising and rationalising the market. Furthermore you are the living example of having a thick skin, i have nothing but respect for your way of dealing with the Netflix mega-dip! that was ice cold man...
Furthermore i love the fact that you dare to make the call, and have skin in the game. In this video, you had the courage to say that CP and Union Pacific are buys, and that Apple and Microsoft are too hot now... few people do that... so thank you. Also.. the patreon is insane
I have just one suggestion for you/your channel: A crucial portion of an investors portfolio is cash.. In times of great excitement like these ones, i think it would perhaps be interesting to look at what should be done with cash. Accumulate a cash position, and get ready for market corrections/dips? Or follow your mantra and always stay invested (buying at a low price)? Feeling conflicted
Hello Joseph! Just wanted to say thanks for everything you do. I'm finishing my bachelor's degree and I'm very excited to, in a near future start my financial journey. I'm from Europe, and i just wanted to thank you for all your hard work and transparency. Loved the video! :)
Made about 6k off nvidia, sold out fully. Learned my lesson not selling out of Amd and lost thousands once it went down.
Did the same thing for the same profit
Can you please teach us how to do your Discounted Cash Flow method to come up with your fair value?
OR do you have any recommended book?
hey joseph your content has quickly became my favorite most consistent finance content on yt. keep it up.
The saddest thing is that my portolio is being lead by a utility company. It is up like 47% so.... yeah. Just behind that is Kroger and Apple. I'll take the W's as they come. Love the content.
Yikes
If possible @joseph can you make an episode how to calculate intristic value of a company. The numbers you calculated once are not useful if they can not be re-calculated again
What a great way to start my weekend!
Thanks for being so consistent Joseph! Let's go!
Took the gains in AAPL and MSFT. Will get back in on a dip. Sell high and bye low.
Currently I'm just being smart and frugal with my money, I'm in the green 47% over the last 15 months and l've accumulated over $700K in pure profits from DCA’ing into stocks, ETFs, dividends and futures. However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait.
@@AlbertGReene-p8w I agree. Having an investment advisor is the best way to go. Based on a direct encounter with a CFP named NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, I can say with certainty that their skills are excellent. She helped raise over $580,000 in 18 months from an initially stagnant portfolio of $150,000.
@@devereauxjnr I just checked her out and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon
@@Aziz__0 NICOLE DESIREE SIMON Is the coach that guides me, you probably might've come across her before, she's quite known in her field, look-her up.
@@devereauxjnr Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Hi Joseph., just a thanks for another great episode. Although I follow you quite often I might have missed that hence the question. Is there an intrinsic value calculator in Qualtrim? Or have you shared it anywhere else ? I’d appreciate your answer! Many Thanks!!
I would be very interested in your formula for Undervalued, Fair Value and Overvalued.
"Buy great companies at fair prices and do nothing" - Terry Smith
I personally will keep buying microsoft and apple
What would they be in your opinion !
Doing nothing does not equal buying
Buying with a margin of safety is even better but one need to know intrinsic value.
you completely missed the point of this video
How is 12x (or 7x) Sales a fair price?
Have you thought about rerunning the spreadsheet with the current numbers of growth since accounted for? Costco is a true mold breaker.
Hi Joseph, great video! At 8:20 you are discussing your fair value calculation results. Is there a video that you discuss how you are coming to your conclusions, and how you are calculating your DCF? Thanks a bunch!
Great video Joseph ! Thanks for all your Great shares !!
I sold my COST at 525 a couple days ago. Been holding and buying since around 200. I’ve felt for a while that COST is overpriced, but the motivator to sell is that I’m becoming disappointed with the quality and value of Costco’s goods and services. For the first time in 10 years I’m considering cancelling my membership and from who I’ve talked to, I’m not the only one.
testing the "do nothing" part of terry smiths plan. don't sell. but surely the inputs to your valuation model in that video have updated since? are the under/fair/over valuation the same as they were then for costco et al?
I got into Microsoft at $254, I loaded the boat a few months ago, it makes up 33% of my portfolio and I'm perfectly fine with holding this for at least the next decade.
I bought a little at 150 in 2020 and a little more at 250 last year and I’ve never been more tempted to sell
@@samual8299I’m going to sell Microsoft soon
@@samual8299i just sold when we hit all time high the game its to buy low and sell at 52 week time high. We will have another sell off tech went on insane run and what goes up must come down
Thank you for the great content, it will be really appreciated if you can make more videos about undervalued and fair valued companies.
Also does quantum display and update fair value estimates ?
Bought MSFT at $35.00 psh decades ago. Everyone at the time thought it was a flash in the pan.
Thank you for the consistent content‼️ SERIOUSLY i find old videos not up to date so often
Maybe get Barnes from M1 back on and interview him about the checking, savings accounts, and how they are moving away from Apex and future plans.
Absolutely love your channel, by far my favorite channel on all of TH-cam!! Keep up the great content
How often do you buy?
I've been adding to my railways this year as well. UNP and CSX. Cheers Joseph. Thanks for the video.
On the TikTok portion at the end, they are emphasizing scale. The same way 43,000 people watch this video or hundreds of thousands of people watch your videos. If you’re able to sell a product or a Patreon or an affiliate link you can make money at scale. On the internet you are able to scale now more than ever.
If you consider to trim, you try to time the market. Just let your winners run up and down as you paid a fair price
Trimming is way different than exiting
That’s cap… if you plan to trim that different than timing the market
Your model is more hope and pray, you should have exits on positions, Rcl has more then doubled my entry I’m out I’ll take my profits and go ccl is close into double might dump that too
Its a funny thing when you look at NVDA's price then run the number through Graham's Original or Revised Valuation formula, and they come back $122.58(original) $69.42(revised) and the actual price is $426.92 its hard not to see the greed thats in the current price. even a DCFV $340.22 or DDMV $244.55 4 different valuation models all with well under current price... its over 90% overvalued practically...
Would it be possible to do a video on discounted cash flow valuation method with your opinion on it and how to do it? Also would it be possible to make a video on how you’re evaluating companies? And thank you for the amazing work
Joseph love the video hold some similar positions as you and feel the same way as you. I’m interested to know you’re thoughts on nasdaq with their recent acquisition, I don’t hate it as much as the market does and they’re definitely a monopolistic company but do feel some risks with the company and am searching for the certainty to pull the trigger on them. I would like to see it trade a little lower but at very curious about your thoughts
Great video as always!!!!💰
Yeah it's time to start looking under the popular pile for cheaper companies for trying times, around 8-11 PE if possible
You are speaking some wise words here.
What platform do you use for valuation ? Or how do you do it ?
"My assumption is that Microsoft can earn around $10 next year" - Joseph Carlson
14:37
(Quoted out of context)
AVGO is up 32% in the past month and AVGO has a great AI moat with the Jericho 3 AI chip that everyone who is building up there AI infrastructure will need. AVGO dividends are much better than Apple, Microsoft or Nvidia.
Wondering about selling my shares next week and lock-in my profits. It’s getting way oversold and can buy at a lower price
@@Yahniboy AVGO is a tough one to figure out, it sat at 630 for such a long time before it jumped up past 800+. Everytime in the past when I sold I've regretted it.
I would wait and sell right before earnings as hype always builds before earnings.
@@glennshoemake4200 I think you’re right
I reference the Fear and Greed Index to determine when to add to my positions.
Could you do a video on herbalife? simple boring company, at crazy PE, and nice cash flows?
Isn't CP somewhat overvalued relative to it's peers? UP is really cheap, but I'm considering CP. Please tell something about your choices on these two and not the other rail roads. Almost all are cash flow machines.
How did you workout the intrinsic value of apple? What calculations did u use?
What is your background are you an accountant or do you work in finance, would be good to show how you calculate intrinsic value
Any thoughts on Dollar General?
what is the percentage under the gain? It does not seem to be gain percentage
I sold almost everything today except for PLTR and TSLA and BTC
Amazing video as always. I am so grateful for your channel which helps me to grow step by step at my mid-age. May I ask you if you could do an example stock video how you evaluate and what specific trends are driving your decision? Many thanks a lot. I am hoping your channel continue to grow so more people can use it to learn.
Only few companies are hyped up but largely market is undervalued.
nice video, I have almost the exact same criteria for picking stocks as well!
I like that Qualtrim software. Does it work for other countries? 🤔
About to induct packages at Amazon with this playing in the back ground at lol
I haven't watched this yet, but I'll just say to be careful taking profits in your winners just because it's running up of late. I took profits in Tesla just 2 weeks ago because it was up 100% YTD, and it was too large a percentage of my portfolio so I wanted to diversify the risk. I could have sold it for like $40 more a share if I had sold it today instead, so I missed out on over $9,000 of profit. :( Bottom line, it's hard to find a good time to sell any winners, and easy to regret selling too soon, especially in a bull market like this.
Tesla and other companies like Microsoft are companies to hold for a decade and see (hoping not catastrophic event happens).
The thing about Tesla is it’s trading at .52% free cash flow yield so the time to trim was a while ago
I feel your pain, I sold at a 50% ROI on apple and sold at $140 and now I’m feeling the pain of it being at $180+ 😐
Own $AAPL and let the share price and dividend continue to grow over many years ❤
Tesla is nothing like Apple. The hype for Tesla is out of this world.
adding on to the absurdity of asking a million people for a dollar, remember that the last Super Bowl had just under 70 thousand fans in attendance. To be a millionaire you would need to just get a dollar from just over the attendance level of 14 Super Bowls... its just that easy!
Love the video Joseph! You are amazingly smart and not someone who goes with the herd!
Any views on cybersecurity stocks - ZS, CRWD and PANW?
Market down is a buy opportunity. I prefer etfs because I'm lazy but I choose these to take the top performers in more sectors so I have minimal overlap. I have modest desires and no need to 10XBRO. too stressful
Microsoft Cloud has grown at a 22% CAGR over the past 5 years and has had an average 38% Op margin.
Microsoft Productivity has grown at a 16% CAGR over the past 5 years and has had an average 41% Op margin.
Microsoft PC has grown at a 9% CAGR over the past 5 years and has had an average 30% Op margin.
Assume sustained margins and 10 years of revenue growth at 20%, 15% and 9% respectively.
Assume that 30% of profits will be distributed as a dividend and 30% as buybacks, as they currently do.
Applying a 15% tax rate, a terminal multiple of 20 (for a company that will, by that time, have 860b in revenue, so good luck growing that in saturated markets...) and discounting at 10%, you get your "fair" value of $350.
So assuming a normal multiple, fair value means that the company NEEDS to grow and execute perfectly over a decade in order for you to earn a 10% return.
What if we are more realistic and growth slows down? So Cloud grows 15% for 5 years anf then 10% for 5 more years; Productivity 10/7% and PC 7/5%. All else equal we are down to $215.
What if the market doesn't like the company so much and the multiple contracts to 15 (Almighty Apple's multiple stayed subdued for a while in the early 2010s when the future was not looking so bright)? Then we are down to $175.
We could do the same with the entire portfolio: there are way too many expectations priced into this companies.
The market seems to have forgotten what happened in 2000.
Also, do keep in mind high levels of greed are very common in bull markets - technically, this is where we are; greed is highest in 2 years because we're in a better place overall.
Only time and patience will tell.
Fear and greed is rhe single most important indicator
Great companies at a fair price are better than fair companies at a great price. Last year was the rare great companies at a great price.
But will keep adding to mega cap tech through etfs and individual holdings. Maybe less aggressively than last year, but adding to losers because they are cheaper rather than winners of a portfolio is so often a mistake long term. Water the flowers, not the weeds.
I sold my shares in upstart but held onto my shares in Unity Software! I had 18 shares of upstart at $20 and sold them for $37.
Hi Joseph, i really like your high quality videos. My performence has improved a lot since i subscribed to your channel.
I'm curious to know what you think of unitedhealth because I feel like this fine company is lagging behind the market?
What is your opinion on companies like ASO or DKS? I've been loading up on ASO and SCHW recently
Joseph awesome video, very insightful.
How did you make your thumbnail? Im looking for some inspiration, thanks
I understand selling for some gains...but Apple and Microsoft?? They will be growing for next 20 yrs? Why would you want to be out of them? Ever? Great content as always.
Because the money could be used in better areas for more growth ...then get back in yo tech when its cheap and a deal
The other issue is one frequently ignored on TH-cam: *when did you buy?* Apple is up 48% if you bought in January, but it's only up 6% if you bought last August, which is hardly "sell and take the gains" money. Another perspective is if you bought in in Dec 2018 like I did, meaning it's up 390%. Cut and run, or let it ride knowing there are more gains like that coming?
For me, a stock running up is not a good enough reason to sell. I have a 10-yr horizon so unless the company’s story has changed and i don’t need the money, I just hold.
Was that different in the past? I agree with you, but am I an buy n hold investor, if I nsell now? I don't think so. Like downside hand turnovers, tech has been the motor
I'm not an investor as yet but finding ways to make more money while you wait on your investments makes alotta sense in my head. Could start a business or side hustle. Great video.
I wish I’ve known I had to bring a pencil. 😅
Indeed, tech is getting a bit expensive. I did sell some of my Meta as I mentioned in my last video. Up quite a lot on it but the current trend appears to be quite bullish so I do think it could go up a bit more in the short term. Pretty awesome though !
Microsoft has a 12x Sales Ratio and Apple 7x Sales Ratio. At 10x Sales Ratio it means that the Company has too return 100% of the revenue as a dividend for the next 10 years to grow into the valuation …
Is Amazon still considered cheap?
5:17
This is also why I’m not buying anything, there’s a bearish divergence between greed and the s&p
I bought a share of NVDA for 200 just 4 months ago, would you sell now or wait until it gets to 500?
Imagine the AI trend just begun, you’d look back in three years and thinking $500 is dirt cheap
@@darekaushi delusional lol
If you plan on keeping these long term you're okay. Today Microsoft is expensive at 351.47 but in 4-5 years from now you'll wish you got it at that price when the price has gone to 400-500/share. I buy 1 share of NVDA biweekly still.
@@23chnge beautiful!!! I'm sure at some point experts were like "OMG it's at 18.00 it's so expensive." You buy slowly as it goes up and double down if it comes down. If the company is solid it'll return and move higher up.
I'm jealous btw lol
It begs the question, how many homeless people are millionaires?
Great video as always. Just one suggestion: both your undervalued and overvalued range are way too close to the fair value.
This is like saying "I'm sure that my valuation model is right." This can be the case for one company, but it certainly isn't for all companies on your list
The market is mostly right.
CFO leaving particularly if there were clashes with C suite is a terrible sign.
Your free cash flow per share metric is great way to value a company. I learned it from you and want to thank you for the effort you put in the content. Sometimes I don’t agree with some analysis but overall I’ve learned a lot from your work and way of thinking/analyzing
Really appreciate you uploading the content on Spotify as well!! Still came here to like the video 😉
Hi Joseph,
I saw someone mention there's a new bill aimed to end the duopoly of MA and V. What are your thoughts on this potential threat to such great stock(MA)?
Also, I guess if I stand next to I-45(TX) on the feeder road during my off work hours I can get my portfolio to 100k Pretty fast lol.
Love the video! Do you have a video explaining how you made that spreadsheet and how you calculated those values?
Great vid. Love the valuation videos. I think they are the most helpful.
How bout Este Lauder?!
Terrific content!
When did you sell Starbucks? I remember you had about 25k in it, or more; did I miss an episode? Does anyone know where he goes over why he cut down his exposure to Starbucks?
Five years from now, Apple will look cheap today. It’s the same thing any time Apple looks too expensive. Just buy it and see if you still feel the same way five years later. You won’t.
Joseph carlson- the time traveler
anyone looking at Target? Is there any things to be worried about?
Yeah it’s gone woke! Go woke go broke
Researched LVMH?
I can't see companies at 40 PE being priced at fair value. 15 is the historical average and I would pay 18-20 PE for a high moat company like Apple, Microsoft or other big tech, BUT 40? Hell nah!
Same problem here my friend - I sold off one share of MSFT to move to O, ADC and BN 👍
Love you Joseph! :)
Joseph you produce one of the finest content on youtube hats off to you, this guy is true to his words and a stoic. I will save a till and try to join you Patreon an support you man
47% in 6 months is enough for me to take some off the top and reinvest into some other, harder hit categories such as REITs and SCHD.
IMHO, these days we should be piling money into treasury bills and just patiently wait for opportunities.
I recently inherited almost $500k. I REALLY need to make this money work for me, and not just disappear over time. I've been scrambling for somewhere to put the money, where I can make an effort to use the gains to pay bills so I can quit my job . All roads have pointed to the financial market of some sort which is a good idea buh where else should I put money besides the financial market? We have a 13% RPI rate so cash is tough.
Yep great question and that’s always the one - where would you rather be if you have an option. Personally I’m always invested aside from a small emergency fund. Financial-market for me seem the only way forward with my long time horizon (accrued almost $1.4m in gains since 2020 ) but if you don’t have that fortune of time it’s a tough market out there almost nowhere feels safe! . Just know the risk you're comfortable with . Mistake is expensive
very informative, one option I suppose is, if you were to invest a set amount buy the whole share in a ETF and the remainder could go into a index for which would allow you to purchase the fractional shares, is that an option?
well a million in profit is a nice milestone, how did you achieve that? I guess you have a proven trading strategy that you've spent a lot on please share more info !! and YES i dont want to make
Lol, I began with an Advisor by name Camille Anne Hector. She’s sec verified and an ISDA member. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my portfolio and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI.
Found her website easily it was like the frist thing that came up when I searched on her name and also her mail address I will surely touch bases with her to see what's the best step for me to take rn. THANK YOU.
When apple releases their scratch resistant phone I see a run up on the stock
the phones are pretty solid, they dont break as much anymore tbh.
Tesla is still undervalued should be $350 right now.
incoming rug pull
@@HeroDai2448 I hope Tesla falls so I can buy more cheaper shares. I hope and wait.
@@Bryansbrainblabs cool
No
@@TheBigShort11 What is your valuation?
in terms of 2024 DIS fair value: how about, say, ESPN + Vision Pro = pitchside seats 🤔
(asking 4 a friend) 🤓