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I’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 37% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place.
Thanks and all the best on your investing journey. Personally with insights from my advisor I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
With this movie, I have no interest. Can’t relate to the characters. Miss marvel seems odd, and without a personality. And the whole things just seems a little bit to Woke for me. Still I enjoy marvel but I would rather see wonderman or the new avengers. Let’s stop killing off the characters that made them popular.and get back to storytelling.
Couldn't agree more on the Disney content. It's been awful. No originality or creativity at all. Just garbage superhero movies, all basically the same movie.
Managing money is different from accumulating wealth, and the lack of investment education in schools may explain why people struggle to maintain their financial gains. The examples you provided are relevant, and I personally benefited from the market crisis, as I embrace challenging times while others tend to avoid them. Well, at least my advisor does too, jokingly.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor?
Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $483k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently.
Many good points in this video! I don't think you entirely hit the mark on Disney though. People call it 'Marvel fatigue' or 'super hero fatigue', but at least personally I love super hero movies and I would love to see more of them - but not the ones Disney are making now. The story is horribly bad, the writing is even worse, the acting is mediocre, and the identity politics has given it all a very sour taste. **These are just bad movies**. Bad movies just won't do well, no matter the genre, unless they have extreme ad campaigns and brands behind them (like Star Wars). Perhaos the fatigue here is that even ad campaigns and brands aren't working. But if they made good movies again, I would love to watch more super hero movies.
JC, I wanted to offer some thoughts to your comments about MSFT being somewhat overpriced at the current time just because it's the "AI King". I think that in the present, it looks overpriced, but years from now this price won't even matter compared to the price it is years in the future. Back in August 2015-August 2016, MSFT increased almost 25%. That sort of growth was insane to me and I (wrongly) sold out at the time thinking I could cash out on a quick gain. It's now gone from some $58 in 2016 when it was "overpriced" to over $360 today. If you'd bought in at the "overpriced" 2016 price, you'd still have made over 6x your money by now. I'm just using your talking points that you yourself used before: I don't think the story has changed. These companies are providing tremendous value to shareholders and consumers. I would not be surprised at all if MSFT alone went up 25% in the next 4 years, or earlier.
Dan Ives is a used car salesman, a cheerleader and a CNBC talking head who has never been an objective analyst. thank you Joseph thank you for being a voice of reason👍
NVIDIA is crazy. It's a great company for sure, but if you were buying the whole business, would you really think "Yeah, $1.2T sounds about right". What's the free cash flow? About $10bn? So less than 1% of the market cap. That doesn't work for me. It is, after all, a company that sells graphic cards. Pretty niche.
The future of Nvidia might be pretty good. Especially with VR. But did you know Nvidia also sells their graphic cards to hospitals? So it’s more than just games.
Randomly bumped into your channel few weeks ago and I must say I'm considering subscribing. Spitting facts and giving interesting news. I think this is the best Stock Channel I've ever seen. Good job!
16:00 can you please show the US federal revenue over time on these charts? GDP is not Uncle Sam's "income." Federal revenue is. GDP is only part of the picture.
The federal government prints the money. It doesn't have revenue. They take in taxes as one of many methods to keep the cash supply from inflating (they are bad at this) and causing the currency to devalue. GDP is the promise that there will be a surplus of production to tax in order to remove money from the economy and keep the currency value from inflating in a uncontrolled or dangerous manner. Government is not a business that has debits and credits. It's an organization that a community of people establishes, funds, and operates as an impartial entity for arbitrating disputes, protecting life and property, and stewarding the public good.
We don't have superhero fatigue, we have shitty movie fatigue. As soon as Disney got into politics and started pushing the woke agenda, their movies went to complete shit, and we stopped caring, hence the box office numbers.
Cash Flow yield is cash flow/ price, so your suggested metric is close to (P/E)/(C/P) = P^2/C*E which quite obviously is nonsensical to look at being quadratic in price. More sensibly maybe you meant earnings yield instead of P/E, so E/P, but that just cancels out to close to an earnings / cash flow - ratio which is not nomsensical but not very useful as earnings and cash flow measures similar but different things. Then you are essensially measuring how much of cash flow does not come from earnings - but if they don't come from earnings, do you want that cash flow? And why does it matter?
Joseph, if you go back 2 years the increase of the stock price is not so dramatic. Also don't underestimate how these companies will keep costs under control while continue growing, this will help their P/E ratio. I believe Druckenmiller's largest holding is Nvidia...
15:57 ??? why would someone have on the same graph *_nominal_* debt vs *_inflation-adjusted_* cumulative debt? That's a bit like saying: "a plum is lighter than a grape if you weigh the plum on the moon"....... I hate manipulated data
If you go to the watchlist page, you create a new watchlist, then add tickers to the watchlist it should automatically populate the dip finder on that page.
I think it is difficult to analyse. You look into the Numbers, but in my Opinion it is more important how they develop their Business, how they develop Ai and not the Numbers. The big 7 are in my Opinion 1 company to much. Tesla doesn't belong into the Group.
You are missing the point with Disney they went walk. They made movies with agendas instead of trying to entertain their fans and they alienated their male audience.
Hi Joseph, really appreciate your work. Something I don’t understand is why you never speak about Blockchain, and I don’t mean bitcoin even if it’s the best performing asset this year. But Microsoft, Amazon, nvidia, Apple are all working with Aí and blockchain.. so why you never pronounce blockchain in your videos ?
Marvel fatigue...well said. I would add Star Wars fatigue !!! I don't see a bright future for Disney. Maybe for the older folks it holds a special place in their hearts. but when I look at the younger generation they arent amazed that much into Disney.
I'd rather just look at my Apple watch for the temperature lol. A company like this can be squashed if Apple built something like GPT into their devices.
@@Ghostwriter0527 if GPT has an IQ of 100, Siri has a 35. I'm talking about an actual AI not some preprogrammed garbage that the marketing team tries to claim is AI
Don't actually do this but; couldn't you sell MSFT, AAPL and buy the S&P 500. If those 2 stocks go up, the whole index should go up. You don't have to worry about a wash sale since they are not really the same thing. Obviously, it's likely that the index won't keep up with those 2 stocks. Though that may be good if they go down. And there you have tax loss harvesting.
I think Joseph is specifically a single stock picker. Index investing doesn't make for very exciting content and he generally tries to outperform indexes such as S&P.
@@wilhelmdekock2637 Yea it's kinda funny though when you're trying to beat S&P500 with a porfolio that mainly consists of the top holdings (big tech, basically) of S&P500. I mean it's nothing remarkable even if you beat it.....
That’s how investing works. A year ago people argued that I was wrong with big tech being cheap. They said that they were expensive or that I couldn’t beat SPY investing in big tech. Now that big tech has trounced SPY and all gone up 40%+ or above this year, it’s “easy”, nothing “remarkable”. Everything is easy in hindsight.
@@JosephCarlsonShow Well I for sure aint one of those people cuz I've always liked big techs and it's a fact that they are the reason the S&P500 has performed consistenly well. Two years ago your story fund had holdings other than just big techs with way more smaller cap growth stocks. You realized things arent going well so you changed your strategy to having a porfolio that highly replicates the S&P500, which is what we're looking at now. I mean, come on, a porfolio that consists of big-techs, berkshire, and SPGI, what else can we expect?!? It's still a win for you if you do beat it, but just nothing impressive....
You keep saying that it highly replicated SPY. Here’s the returns of SPY vs the Story Fund this year. SPY: 15% Story Fund: 55% You don’t outperform the index by 40% in a single year by having portfolio that “highly replicates” the index. The best indicator that your portfolio replicates SPY is if it has similar beta and similar performance. Of which the Story Fund has neither. The story fund is nothing like the index. The story fund has 35% in Amazon. The index has 6% in Amazon. The story fund has 28% in Netflix. The index has 2% in Netflix. The story fund has a total of 6 holdings. The index has 500. They’re so completely different number of holdings, weighting, beta, and performance, that to suggest it’s a replica is totally wrong.
This biggest piece in all of this that is not considered is the fact that a very large portion of investors are "hiding" money right now in Treasuries, Money Market Funds, etc, safely earning 5%+, this money having exited the stock market. The moment interest rates start dropping again, jeopardizing those "safe harbor rates", money is going to pour back into the stock market, very likely heading to tech primarily, but back into the market overall which is going to kick up the market overall with a nice shot in the arm. That said, the market likely really is still "at a discount" (tech included) despite it appearing so.
".....the market likely really is still "at a discount" (tech included) despite it appearing so". Can't get my head around that. Did you rather mean to write "....the market likely really is still "at a discount" (tech included) despite it *_not_* appearing so."
Well if Disney continue with bad movies one after another a so on …. Definitely before going into the movie I will wait to hear feedbacks and if has bad reviews well I just need to wait to watch the movie in Disney plus …. I remember when I use to be so frenetic fan that want to purchase all collectibles item from marvel and Starwars but not anymore. Unfortunately this big companies sometimes believe they are almighty and stop listening the customers. Someone need to learn that is more expensive get back those customers that leave that bring new customer , and they are not doing neither one.
DISNEY has destroyed the company from the inside. Unless there is a FUNDAMENTAL (and highly marketed) strategy and management change, DIS will continue to dissolve itself. This is not just Marvel related. This is company-wide. DIS has been so obviously self-destructive, I am starting to think it is by design.
“It tells me everything that might be around me, and where I am” my god man if you stop looking at your hand and look around you you could work that out for yourself 😅
I feel like we don’t know how monopolistic this AI assimilation will be, I mean AI could really make or break the moats of tech, the larger tech that doesn’t prioritise tangible assets anyway. What if eventually there are companies creating AIs out of their basements. Nobody is thinking of the disadvantages of AI to tech as whole. If anything I think AI will enhance non tech companies more than tech itself.
Most data = best training opportunity for AI models Alphabet and Facebook have the most data and they are both investing 10s of billions of dollars into this space for years now. Just think about it :)
And alphabet and Facebook already spend amounts of money for their ai infrastructure, other businesses could only dream of doing. Especially smaller ones, so I don’t think a start up can threaten big tech. Its like in Pharma, they need to cooperate with big tech. Look at openai teaming up with Microsoft. Or anthropic teaming up with Amazon and alphabet.
People are not getting Marvel fatigue, rather they are not interested in projects made solely for diversity sake. People watch movies to escape from reality, not to get a mirror of reality in their face while they want distraction.
Maybe it's only fair value, if growth persists. Indeed, best opportunities might be elsewhere - especially small value & dividend stocks. Only time will tell...
I think the problem of Disney is the message they make. Which in this case is women = strong and men = weak. Somewhat counter intuitive to the real deal of generalization :-D
Remember while most think that you can only do three things with a company's stock. Buy, Sell or hold, in reality there are several other choices. You can sell options against your position. You can sell Puts on positions you want. And you can always sell short. I pretty much agree with you that many of the big tech firms have had a nice run. I would argue this is a combination of improved fundamentals, AND price creep. I kind of agree with you , that this time may not be the best time to buy more, but I, believe and likely you, also believe it is NOT the time to sell either. Perhaps it is a time to sell covered calls. but with the momentum as high as it is, I think this also may not be advantageous in the long term. What I think I would do is sell naked puts at prices that I find the company's shares attractive at. Worst thing is you are going to own the shares at a much better price. Or you may think, if you do not get assigned the stock, is "h jeez I just got the income from selling the put.I really wanted the shares" In either case, if you are in the situation that you have the capital, like the company, but don;t like the current price, it might be the time to sell that naked put.n
My stock portfolio has taken quite a hit, My tech stocks have been plummeting. And also my energy sector investments have also been suffering. I have lost almost $120K in my stock portfolio. it's been a rough ride.>
I think there are a few factors at play. Inflation is rising, and the Fed is talking about interest rate hikes. That's spooking investors. Geopolitical tensions are playing a role too. The ongoing trade disputes and conflicts are making everyone nervous.
When it comes to investing, the stock market can be a fantastic opportunity, but it is not without risk. My advisor thought me Diversification is essential to balance possible rewards and risk, to consider a combination of stocks, bonds, and other assets. It's a good idea to consult with a financial advisor who can help tailor your financial plan to your specific goals and circumstances
I take guidance from 'Nicole Desiree Simon a well qualified California-based wealth advisor with over a decade of experience, luckily her profile is widely visible on the internet, you should simply research.
Thank you for this tip , I must say, Nicole appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Just a little note on the Marvels movie. I wasn't even aware it was in theatres I think the marketing behind it was weak normally I hear all about a new marvel movie. Strange.
Yeah, the strike only just got called off as it was hitting theatres so there were no press tours with the actors hyping it like you’d normally have with a big release like this.
If you wouldn’t buy it at the current price shouldn’t you logically start dollar cost average selling. People always like dollar cost average buying but you should dollar cost average sell just as much
Its not just superhero fatigue, its social justice fatigue. Disney continues to prove that they have an agenda that the majority of its fans disagree with
Gonna push back on “trimming” a bit. At least without more context. I certainly wouldn’t trim a position in a great business just to hold cash. And if I were interested in a new position, I would buy with excess cash first, before considering trimming something I didn’t intend to sell out of completely.
Love what you've had to say as usual, Joe. But as far as the "Marvel movie" thing - it's not "Marvel fatigue" or "superhero fatigue" at all. Having your finger on the pulse of those markets and that fandom (one of my companies is called Wave 1 Collectibles - basically a comic book store) and what you really find is that these flicks are suffering from "social agenda fatigue". All of Disney is to an extent, IMO. Something to consider when investing - are your organizations socially responsible or are they pushing a strange agenda instead..... Thanks again for another great video.
Facebook delivered ebit in its core ad business (which is 99% of revenue) of 17.6 B the last quarter (!). Yes, in the last quarter, 17.6 B ad ebit in one quarter, which translates to 52% ebit margin for Facebooks ads business. If you net out the cash of 60 B Facebook trades at an EV of round about 800 B. The core ad business will bring in at least 60 B (70+ is much more probable, given the now through layoffs achieved EBIT margin of 52% and 30 B + in ebit for ads just q2 and q3 2023 combined, when q4 is by far the strongest for seasonal reasons). So it’s a low teens multiple for 2024 ad ebit. Is Facebook a worse company because they invest heavily for the future. If reality labs would be spinned out of Facebook and would trade seperately, it wouldn’t have a negative valuation. It would trade with some valuation on the market. Just think about it :)
I’m more than sure the ONLY reason the Marvels got low numbers and ratings is because of the anti-woke crowd. They been trashing it before it even premiered.
That demonstration of whatever that was is stupid imo. I have a phone that does all that and more… but people buy Apple Watches which are the biggest waste of money I’ve ever seen so what do I know
Inflation has a greater impact on people's cost of living than a crashing stock or housing market, resulting in an immediate and tangible effect. This explains the current high level of negative market sentiment, and our need for assistance in surviving this challenging economy. The financial markets have underperformed due to fears of inflation, causing stock and bond prices to plummet. Despite sounding basic, consulting a financial advisor has enabled me to outperform the market and achieve a profit of $850,000 since June 2022, making it the ideal approach to enter the financial markets today.
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, constructing a solid financial portfolio has become increasingly intricate. Therefore, I strongly advise anyone facing difficulties to consider seeking professional assistance. By doing so, you can access tailored strategies that specifically cater to your individual long-term goals and financial aspirations.
May I know the name of the financial advisor who has been helping you with your investments? If you're comfortable sharing, could you also guide me on how to contact them?
The financial advisor I work with is *STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS* . I discovered her during a CNBC interview and contacted her thereafter. She has been guiding me by providing entry and exit points for the specific securities I focus on. If you're interested, you can search for her online to learn more about her expertise. I have been following her market strategies and have had no regrets thus far.
people are not sick of marvel movies, or themarvel universe. They are sick of Disney’s woke bullshit that’s why they are not watching the movies or using the streaming service.
I get my first amazon stock compensation on the 15th and I’m excited! I’m holding until 500+!! After watch the all global meeting I believe in the long term future of Amazon 😎
It’s not marvel fatigue. People are done with Disney for making movies for a small minority. People are tired of the race swapping and DEI motive-driven approach to movies. They just want to see good movies without being lectured.
I was waiting for you to create a video like this given your stance regarding value investment. The reason? You seem to consistently under estimate the growth prospects of aggressively innovative companies. That's less Microsoft, Apple & Meta Google & significantly more Tesla & NVIDIA. The new guard is where the future growth will mostly fall & true to this point is Nvidia's eye popping results but your lack of understanding that they are still expanding TAM into regimes never explored with AI. Dan is 100% correct because he understands that the AI based TAM will dwarf the current generations of big techs revenue streams. You'll know very soon just how astonishing this opportunity is going to be, next Monday when Nvidia announces it's q323 earnings on the 21st. Using p/e to try to value innovative companies is like trying to use human scale to weigh an elephant & concluding that the pegged max value displayed is the weight of the elephant. I like that you qualified your position liberally through out just needed to point out what you missed.
On the 21st nvdia better have the revenue and not be talking about orders. Anything other than a massive amount of tangible revenue will be an absolute massive drop.
Correct, and emerging companies will be the biggest account builders for people during this next expansion phase. $DUTV reverse merger on the 15th. CEO was just on Unicorn Hunters today. Someone who sees this, you are welcome.
Have you ever noticed every so many spiderman stories they just start over and retail the Origin Story? but the Origin Story always changes, some times it follows the comicbooks other times they invest it
Let's not forget that Disney has forsaken a large percentage of the population. Playing politics in a business has consequences! Ask Budweiser how things are going!
Try out the Patreon with a Free trial: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
Patreon includes:
🎥 Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week.
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Hey Joseph are there no longer exclusive videos? I don’t see any posted in the Discord or Patreon timeline.
@@katielowen what's your discord username? I can get that fixed.
Hey Joseph, I liked Qualtrim, I tried signing up for it, and after I logged in, nothing works, its just empty fields, should I do something more?
I’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 37% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place.
Amazing well done! Which companies have performed best for you?
Thanks and all the best on your investing journey. Personally with insights from my advisor I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
Geez, strong performance in 2023. Congrats! Kick down those Wall Street doors
I’d say your IA is doing a great job protecting your portfolio. More still impressive as you’re making fortunes in these turbulent times!
I’d choose e.xpertise any day because finding the right balance between investing and living is very important to me.
I really dislike the new Disney marvel movies as I feel like they’re always pushing agenda, and the storytelling has just gone terribly downHill
I'm over the wokeness. I would watch Marvel all day, but all this new stuff sucks so much.
With this movie, I have no interest. Can’t relate to the characters. Miss marvel seems odd, and without a personality. And the whole things just seems a little bit to Woke for me. Still I enjoy marvel but I would rather see wonderman or the new avengers. Let’s stop killing off the characters that made them popular.and get back to storytelling.
Go woke, go broke…
So pretty much any film coming out in holiday recently then!
same
@@Markazoid6041
Couldn't agree more on the Disney content. It's been awful. No originality or creativity at all. Just garbage superhero movies, all basically the same movie.
Managing money is different from accumulating wealth, and the lack of investment education in schools may explain why people struggle to maintain their financial gains. The examples you provided are relevant, and I personally benefited from the market crisis, as I embrace challenging times while others tend to avoid them. Well, at least my advisor does too, jokingly.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor?
Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $483k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently.
Wow, that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.
I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?
Many good points in this video! I don't think you entirely hit the mark on Disney though. People call it 'Marvel fatigue' or 'super hero fatigue', but at least personally I love super hero movies and I would love to see more of them - but not the ones Disney are making now. The story is horribly bad, the writing is even worse, the acting is mediocre, and the identity politics has given it all a very sour taste. **These are just bad movies**. Bad movies just won't do well, no matter the genre, unless they have extreme ad campaigns and brands behind them (like Star Wars). Perhaos the fatigue here is that even ad campaigns and brands aren't working. But if they made good movies again, I would love to watch more super hero movies.
Agreed! It's not fatigue. It's just that Disney isn't making awesome superhero movies anymore.
JC, I wanted to offer some thoughts to your comments about MSFT being somewhat overpriced at the current time just because it's the "AI King". I think that in the present, it looks overpriced, but years from now this price won't even matter compared to the price it is years in the future.
Back in August 2015-August 2016, MSFT increased almost 25%. That sort of growth was insane to me and I (wrongly) sold out at the time thinking I could cash out on a quick gain.
It's now gone from some $58 in 2016 when it was "overpriced" to over $360 today. If you'd bought in at the "overpriced" 2016 price, you'd still have made over 6x your money by now.
I'm just using your talking points that you yourself used before: I don't think the story has changed. These companies are providing tremendous value to shareholders and consumers. I would not be surprised at all if MSFT alone went up 25% in the next 4 years, or earlier.
Dan Ives is a used car salesman, a cheerleader and a CNBC talking head who has never been an objective analyst. thank you Joseph thank you for being a voice of reason👍
Hey Joseph, is there any way to add enterprise value/ FCF yield on qualtrim to account for a company’s debt
NVIDIA is crazy. It's a great company for sure, but if you were buying the whole business, would you really think "Yeah, $1.2T sounds about right". What's the free cash flow? About $10bn? So less than 1% of the market cap. That doesn't work for me. It is, after all, a company that sells graphic cards. Pretty niche.
The future of Nvidia might be pretty good. Especially with VR. But did you know Nvidia also sells their graphic cards to hospitals? So it’s more than just games.
Eh, not "niche" nvidia is in more than just gaming PCs and crypto miners lol.. i agree that's it's over valued tho
no they now sell ai data centres big difference , your loss
Randomly bumped into your channel few weeks ago and I must say I'm considering subscribing. Spitting facts and giving interesting news.
I think this is the best Stock Channel I've ever seen. Good job!
Oh for sure. I started out with so
Many financial channels (Graham Stephen, Preston O Neil, and tons of others). I stuck with JC.
@@thecapone45 I think the main reason I tend to watch his videos more than the others is that he's a very likeable guy
The Humane AI Pin ad felt so cold that I felt weird about the product. I wonder if they wanted to come off as "no hype".
U know what else tells you the time and date? A regular watch. And if it's fancy, it'll even tell you phase of the moon. Neat huh?
16:00 can you please show the US federal revenue over time on these charts? GDP is not Uncle Sam's "income." Federal revenue is. GDP is only part of the picture.
The federal government prints the money. It doesn't have revenue. They take in taxes as one of many methods to keep the cash supply from inflating (they are bad at this) and causing the currency to devalue. GDP is the promise that there will be a surplus of production to tax in order to remove money from the economy and keep the currency value from inflating in a uncontrolled or dangerous manner.
Government is not a business that has debits and credits. It's an organization that a community of people establishes, funds, and operates as an impartial entity for arbitrating disputes, protecting life and property, and stewarding the public good.
I'm not selling either but I did sell covered calls and purchased a few QQQ puts as a hedge.
We don't have superhero fatigue, we have shitty movie fatigue. As soon as Disney got into politics and started pushing the woke agenda, their movies went to complete shit, and we stopped caring, hence the box office numbers.
Hi Joseph, Any opinions on SOFI or PLTR?
You should add a new metric in Qualtrim: P/E over SBC Adj. Free Cash Flow Yield. It'd be a good measure that a company's over- or undervalued.
Cash Flow yield is cash flow/ price, so your suggested metric is close to (P/E)/(C/P) = P^2/C*E which quite obviously is nonsensical to look at being quadratic in price. More sensibly maybe you meant earnings yield instead of P/E, so E/P, but that just cancels out to close to an earnings / cash flow - ratio which is not nomsensical but not very useful as earnings and cash flow measures similar but different things. Then you are essensially measuring how much of cash flow does not come from earnings - but if they don't come from earnings, do you want that cash flow? And why does it matter?
It’s not marvel fatigue. It’s crap show and movie fatigue
Thank you so much Joseph for all the wisdom you provide with the forum!
We need your opinion on The trade desk TTD
Awesome upload Joe, thanks for the perspective as ways. 🙏
Joseph, if you go back 2 years the increase of the stock price is not so dramatic. Also don't underestimate how these companies will keep costs under control while continue growing, this will help their P/E ratio. I believe Druckenmiller's largest holding is Nvidia...
Disney's problem is systemic in their numerous failures at the box office. Sell.
then in this case its better to stick with IT index then
15:57 ??? why would someone have on the same graph *_nominal_* debt vs *_inflation-adjusted_* cumulative debt? That's a bit like saying: "a plum is lighter than a grape if you weigh the plum on the moon"....... I hate manipulated data
It is not about marvel it is about disney trying to push their agenda on every movie.
No it's marvel, they just suck now
Marvel sucks now because the stories suck. Because Disney.
I know this not the place discussed this but why can not find the dip finder in Qualtrimul page
Are you going to the Watchlist tab?
If you go to the watchlist page, you create a new watchlist, then add tickers to the watchlist it should automatically populate the dip finder on that page.
I think it is difficult to analyse. You look into the Numbers, but in my Opinion it is more important how they develop their Business, how they develop Ai and not the Numbers. The big 7 are in my Opinion 1 company to much. Tesla doesn't belong into the Group.
Tesla will 7x fangma will 3x in ten years
It doesn’t matter, keep buying big tech…always, it’s never a bad investment
You are missing the point with Disney they went walk. They made movies with agendas instead of trying to entertain their fans and they alienated their male audience.
Hi Joseph, really appreciate your work. Something I don’t understand is why you never speak about Blockchain, and I don’t mean bitcoin even if it’s the best performing asset this year. But Microsoft, Amazon, nvidia, Apple are all working with Aí and blockchain.. so why you never pronounce blockchain in your videos ?
Selling when Microsoft or Apple because it is expensive isn’t like cutting your flowers to water weeds? (by Lynch or Buffett)
The Magnificent 7 is now the Meme 7. AAPL alone is 7% of the Market? MSFT is 6%? Completely lopsided market.
Marvel fatigue...well said. I would add Star Wars fatigue !!! I don't see a bright future for Disney. Maybe for the older folks it holds a special place in their hearts. but when I look at the younger generation they arent amazed that much into Disney.
I'd rather just look at my Apple watch for the temperature lol. A company like this can be squashed if Apple built something like GPT into their devices.
It’s called Siri
@@Ghostwriter0527 if GPT has an IQ of 100, Siri has a 35. I'm talking about an actual AI not some preprogrammed garbage that the marketing team tries to claim is AI
Yeah that AI pin is bad and dumb.
Who want to see Marvel movies when you have the weather temperature on the palm of your hand!
I thought you were buying Arista (ANET) ?
Don't actually do this but; couldn't you sell MSFT, AAPL and buy the S&P 500. If those 2 stocks go up, the whole index should go up. You don't have to worry about a wash sale since they are not really the same thing. Obviously, it's likely that the index won't keep up with those 2 stocks. Though that may be good if they go down. And there you have tax loss harvesting.
I think Joseph is specifically a single stock picker. Index investing doesn't make for very exciting content and he generally tries to outperform indexes such as S&P.
@@wilhelmdekock2637 Yea it's kinda funny though when you're trying to beat S&P500 with a porfolio that mainly consists of the top holdings (big tech, basically) of S&P500. I mean it's nothing remarkable even if you beat it.....
That’s how investing works.
A year ago people argued that I was wrong with big tech being cheap. They said that they were expensive or that I couldn’t beat SPY investing in big tech.
Now that big tech has trounced SPY and all gone up 40%+ or above this year, it’s “easy”, nothing “remarkable”. Everything is easy in hindsight.
@@JosephCarlsonShow Well I for sure aint one of those people cuz I've always liked big techs and it's a fact that they are the reason the S&P500 has performed consistenly well. Two years ago your story fund had holdings other than just big techs with way more smaller cap growth stocks. You realized things arent going well so you changed your strategy to having a porfolio that highly replicates the S&P500, which is what we're looking at now. I mean, come on, a porfolio that consists of big-techs, berkshire, and SPGI, what else can we expect?!? It's still a win for you if you do beat it, but just nothing impressive....
You keep saying that it highly replicated SPY.
Here’s the returns of SPY vs the Story Fund this year.
SPY: 15%
Story Fund: 55%
You don’t outperform the index by 40% in a single year by having portfolio that “highly replicates” the index. The best indicator that your portfolio replicates SPY is if it has similar beta and similar performance. Of which the Story Fund has neither.
The story fund is nothing like the index. The story fund has 35% in Amazon. The index has 6% in Amazon. The story fund has 28% in Netflix. The index has 2% in Netflix. The story fund has a total of 6 holdings. The index has 500. They’re so completely different number of holdings, weighting, beta, and performance, that to suggest it’s a replica is totally wrong.
This biggest piece in all of this that is not considered is the fact that a very large portion of investors are "hiding" money right now in Treasuries, Money Market Funds, etc, safely earning 5%+, this money having exited the stock market. The moment interest rates start dropping again, jeopardizing those "safe harbor rates", money is going to pour back into the stock market, very likely heading to tech primarily, but back into the market overall which is going to kick up the market overall with a nice shot in the arm. That said, the market likely really is still "at a discount" (tech included) despite it appearing so.
".....the market likely really is still "at a discount" (tech included) despite it appearing so". Can't get my head around that. Did you rather mean to write "....the market likely really is still "at a discount" (tech included) despite it *_not_* appearing so."
Well if Disney continue with bad movies one after another a so on …. Definitely before going into the movie I will wait to hear feedbacks and if has bad reviews well I just need to wait to watch the movie in Disney plus …. I remember when I use to be so frenetic fan that want to purchase all collectibles item from marvel and Starwars but not anymore. Unfortunately this big companies sometimes believe they are almighty and stop listening the customers. Someone need to learn that is more expensive get back those customers that leave that bring new customer , and they are not doing neither one.
DISNEY has destroyed the company from the inside. Unless there is a FUNDAMENTAL (and highly marketed) strategy and management change, DIS will continue to dissolve itself. This is not just Marvel related. This is company-wide. DIS has been so obviously self-destructive, I am starting to think it is by design.
It’s not Marvel SuperHero fatigue per se. But, a lack of quality. Fans will go to the theater for a good film.
“It tells me everything that might be around me, and where I am” my god man if you stop looking at your hand and look around you you could work that out for yourself 😅
I feel like we don’t know how monopolistic this AI assimilation will be, I mean AI could really make or break the moats of tech, the larger tech that doesn’t prioritise tangible assets anyway. What if eventually there are companies creating AIs out of their basements. Nobody is thinking of the disadvantages of AI to tech as whole. If anything I think AI will enhance non tech companies more than tech itself.
Most data = best training opportunity for AI models
Alphabet and Facebook have the most data and they are both investing 10s of billions of dollars into this space for years now.
Just think about it :)
@@Messi_CR7885yes I know that but data is easily replicated, data isn’t finite.
But alphabet and meta have their data and can train their models with that data. This is an advantage in my opinion.
@@DoctorDoom69disagree. Data is not generated out of nothing. You need a platform or pay for it.
And alphabet and Facebook already spend amounts of money for their ai infrastructure, other businesses could only dream of doing. Especially smaller ones, so I don’t think a start up can threaten big tech. Its like in Pharma, they need to cooperate with big tech. Look at openai teaming up with Microsoft. Or anthropic teaming up with Amazon and alphabet.
People are not getting Marvel fatigue, rather they are not interested in projects made solely for diversity sake. People watch movies to escape from reality, not to get a mirror of reality in their face while they want distraction.
Maybe it's only fair value, if growth persists. Indeed, best opportunities might be elsewhere - especially small value & dividend stocks.
Only time will tell...
I wonder what is new in your video?
Disney doesn’t seem to understand what their marvel fans want. I can guarantee you it isn’t more Ms Marvel.
Whoever coined the term “The Magnificent Seven” has been watching ‘The Boys’ far too much (or maybe it’s just me) 😂.
Great video as always, man!
I think it comes from the classic 60s western of the same name.
I have a tech index funds so No sales for me
I think the problem of Disney is the message they make. Which in this case is women = strong and men = weak. Somewhat counter intuitive to the real deal of generalization :-D
That ai cube is hilarious! Its a worse version of a smartphone
What if you have No hands for the screen
4000 member patreon at 11$ = well done m8
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
AI PIN also has star trek vibes
I thought last month you were buying more big tech...?
I have not purchased any big tech in the past 2 months.
Remember while most think that you can only do three things with a company's stock. Buy, Sell or hold, in reality there are several other choices. You can sell options against your position. You can sell Puts on positions you want. And you can always sell short. I pretty much agree with you that many of the big tech firms have had a nice run. I would argue this is a combination of improved fundamentals, AND price creep. I kind of agree with you , that this time may not be the best time to buy more, but I, believe and likely you, also believe it is NOT the time to sell either. Perhaps it is a time to sell covered calls. but with the momentum as high as it is, I think this also may not be advantageous in the long term. What I think I would do is sell naked puts at prices that I find the company's shares attractive at. Worst thing is you are going to own the shares at a much better price. Or you may think, if you do not get assigned the stock, is "h jeez I just got the income from selling the put.I really wanted the shares" In either case, if you are in the situation that you have the capital, like the company, but don;t like the current price, it might be the time to sell that naked put.n
My stock portfolio has taken quite a hit, My tech stocks have been plummeting. And also my energy sector investments have also been suffering. I have lost almost $120K in my stock portfolio. it's been a rough ride.>
I think there are a few factors at play. Inflation is rising, and the Fed is talking about interest rate hikes. That's spooking investors. Geopolitical tensions are playing a role too. The ongoing trade disputes and conflicts are making everyone nervous.
When it comes to investing, the stock market can be a fantastic opportunity, but it is not without risk. My advisor thought me Diversification is essential to balance possible rewards and risk, to consider a combination of stocks, bonds, and other assets. It's a good idea to consult with a financial advisor who can help tailor your financial plan to your specific goals and circumstances
I get it, but I'm concerned about risk. What if I lose my savings in the market? Please who is this advisor that guides you?
I take guidance from 'Nicole Desiree Simon a well qualified California-based wealth advisor with over a decade of experience, luckily her profile is widely visible on the internet, you should simply research.
Thank you for this tip , I must say, Nicole appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Definitely not buying on my side 😅
AI Clip is the next Juicero
overproducing Marvel movies may be one reason for the bad numbers. An other might be the charaters featured in the movie...
He's so happy about the Recession coming in, like he's super excited to be witnessing it.
The best marvel film as of late was Spider-man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Just a little note on the Marvels movie. I wasn't even aware it was in theatres I think the marketing behind it was weak normally I hear all about a new marvel movie. Strange.
could be because of the strike
Yeah, the strike only just got called off as it was hitting theatres so there were no press tours with the actors hyping it like you’d normally have with a big release like this.
Why you dont speak about the fact that post of them are not at 2021 T3 peak and inflation have been massive so 😅
If you wouldn’t buy it at the current price shouldn’t you logically start dollar cost average selling. People always like dollar cost average buying but you should dollar cost average sell just as much
Add some Tesla to story fund!
Its not just superhero fatigue, its social justice fatigue. Disney continues to prove that they have an agenda that the majority of its fans disagree with
Dan Ives sounds like Walter Jr. from Breaking Bad
I should have listened to Joe, but I was too fearful. I bought some ($200/week of the big 7 all together) but I should have gone much heavier
Humane isn’t like Apple, Apple is like Humane. Chaudhuri designed for Apple for 22 years. Gotta do your research if you’re gonna rip on something.
Gonna push back on “trimming” a bit. At least without more context. I certainly wouldn’t trim a position in a great business just to hold cash. And if I were interested in a new position, I would buy with excess cash first, before considering trimming something I didn’t intend to sell out of completely.
Love what you've had to say as usual, Joe. But as far as the "Marvel movie" thing - it's not "Marvel fatigue" or "superhero fatigue" at all. Having your finger on the pulse of those markets and that fandom (one of my companies is called Wave 1 Collectibles - basically a comic book store) and what you really find is that these flicks are suffering from "social agenda fatigue". All of Disney is to an extent, IMO. Something to consider when investing - are your organizations socially responsible or are they pushing a strange agenda instead..... Thanks again for another great video.
True, tech's are not cheap... expensive.. Maybe sell off tomorrow
Facebook delivered ebit in its core ad business (which is 99% of revenue) of 17.6 B the last quarter (!). Yes, in the last quarter, 17.6 B ad ebit in one quarter, which translates to 52% ebit margin for Facebooks ads business.
If you net out the cash of 60 B Facebook trades at an EV of round about 800 B. The core ad business will bring in at least 60 B (70+ is much more probable, given the now through layoffs achieved EBIT margin of 52% and 30 B + in ebit for ads just q2 and q3 2023 combined, when q4 is by far the strongest for seasonal reasons).
So it’s a low teens multiple for 2024 ad ebit. Is Facebook a worse company because they invest heavily for the future. If reality labs would be spinned out of Facebook and would trade seperately, it wouldn’t have a negative valuation. It would trade with some valuation on the market.
Just think about it :)
After a 30 to 80% drop from post of them. Just Apple and Microsoft avec overevalued but other a fine not at ath or close
I’m more than sure the ONLY reason the Marvels got low numbers and ratings is because of the anti-woke crowd. They been trashing it before it even premiered.
Disney adding their woke agenda I to their movies is what’s killing them
Anyone buying big tech at this range is extremely foolish.
That demonstration of whatever that was is stupid imo. I have a phone that does all that and more… but people buy Apple Watches which are the biggest waste of money I’ve ever seen so what do I know
The new Movie never seemed interest
I am buying GOOGLE stock heavily
Nailed it on the Marvel segment, Joseph
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The financial advisor I work with is *STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS* . I discovered her during a CNBC interview and contacted her thereafter. She has been guiding me by providing entry and exit points for the specific securities I focus on. If you're interested, you can search for her online to learn more about her
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big tech, vici and texas roadhouse...
people are not sick of marvel movies, or themarvel universe. They are sick of Disney’s woke bullshit that’s why they are not watching the movies or using the streaming service.
You keep talking about NVIDIA and Tesla, yet you don't own it. Why? Weird.
I get my first amazon stock compensation on the 15th and I’m excited! I’m holding until 500+!!
After watch the all global meeting I believe in the long term future of Amazon 😎
The whole market is overvalued.
It’s not marvel fatigue. People are done with Disney for making movies for a small minority. People are tired of the race swapping and DEI motive-driven approach to movies. They just want to see good movies without being lectured.
Yeah!! Always super content and yeah Disney move on something new please ;-)
I was waiting for you to create a video like this given your stance regarding value investment.
The reason? You seem to consistently under estimate the growth prospects of aggressively innovative companies.
That's less Microsoft, Apple & Meta Google & significantly more Tesla & NVIDIA. The new guard is where the future growth will mostly fall & true to this point is Nvidia's eye popping results but your lack of understanding that they are still expanding TAM into regimes never explored with AI.
Dan is 100% correct because he understands that the AI based TAM will dwarf the current generations of big techs revenue streams.
You'll know very soon just how astonishing this opportunity is going to be, next Monday when Nvidia announces it's q323 earnings on the 21st.
Using p/e to try to value innovative companies is like trying to use human scale to weigh an elephant & concluding that the pegged max value displayed is the weight of the elephant.
I like that you qualified your position liberally through out just needed to point out what you missed.
On the 21st nvdia better have the revenue and not be talking about orders.
Anything other than a massive amount of tangible revenue will be an absolute massive drop.
Correct, and emerging companies will be the biggest account builders for people during this next expansion phase. $DUTV reverse merger on the 15th. CEO was just on Unicorn Hunters today. Someone who sees this, you are welcome.
Have you ever noticed every so many spiderman stories they just start over and retail the Origin Story? but the Origin Story always changes, some times it follows the comicbooks other times they invest it
Let's not forget that Disney has forsaken a large percentage of the population. Playing politics in a business has consequences! Ask Budweiser how things are going!
Dude foresaw the AI bubble before Nancy Pelosi and wall street
Totally agree tech are expensive right now , is a good time to build a pile of cash at 4-5% interest rate and wait for the right moment.
Ok so you want us to sell so you can buy at a discount. Sounds like greed bro.
Disney! Get woke go broke!😅