Is This Showdown Value With TURNED Top Pair? | SplitSuit
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 ส.ค. 2024
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SplitSuit offers something special in this video. Not only does he review a hand he played, but he shows what over 1,000 other players would do in this exact spot. After isolating some limpers with K9 and totally whiffing the flop, SplitSuit turns top pair and faces a small bet.
At this point, most players treat the hand as showdown value (SDV)...but is it that simple? Get a breakdown of the common issues players have here and why raising is MUCH better than most players assume. Concepts include bet sizing, hand reading, combos, value vs. showdown value, and mistake-rich environments.
(PS. If you liked this kind of video, please leave a comment and let us know! We can do more like these in the future if you like this format.)
I like this quiz version a lot ! Thank you
Anytime Robby
This is so good. The fact that you brought up that he could only have 89hh for two pair just opened my eyes more. Thank you.
bro, that was so good from him lol
I think it's an incorrect analysis though. I think almost everyone I see at 1/2 or 1/3 live can show up here with 89o.
I agree with the raise option , although I would have just raised to 70-80 $ because the opponent seems more like a fish and I would assume it makes him more likely to call with 8x hands and t9 etc ( although I think 9x is very unlikely because of his raise size)
Totally fair
I think this is one of your better videos. I definitely like this approach to discussing the game.
What matters is how to think about what's happening and what information is needed to consider, and this really did that.
Great vid format Splitsuit. I'd love it. The idea of the quiz, what is right and wrong and why. Thanks man!
Very helpful, thanks! I watched this multiple times and learned new stuff each time. This teaches me how to think. By the way, I played it right the first time mainly because I didn’t want to give the B.B. opportunity to set the price, so it was good to hear confirmation from you.
your videos are awesome bro. I am trying to become a better player and plan on signing up for Core this week. Thank You!
Love this style of video. Keep it up!
I was right on the raise, but I wasn't going to shove. So I'll think about that. Thanks!
Thanks James!!! I totally f'ed this one up and see how your line makes more sense...
I LOVE this video, both the content and the style.
Thank you! Glad to hear it =)
Love it! Yes, please do more like this?
Loved this format! Keep it up
Cheers Pedro!
Nice hand sir. I like the quiz format a lot because it lets the viewer test himself and also seeing the results shows us how most other players are thinking; helps with hand reading and creating lines.
Cheers Tavish! My thoughts exactly =)
James (SplitSuit) One suggestion for a future video: present a turn decision where you have to make a specific plan for the river, as in: which river cards are you barrelling on? Which ones are you check calling? Which ones are you check folding? I’m sure you could do an amazing video in that style!
also massively agree. James i'd love it if you keep putting up the quiz. It engages the viewer and further motivates us to pay closer attention to what is going on so that we can give a well thought out answer.
Hey James. I just want to say that you offer the best free poker training content out there. Thank you for this.
Would you do this if villain had a bigger stack than you? And what to do then?
Great format.
Great points.
Thank you sir =)
Nice analysis. I chose call, but after watching analysis i realise, if I had JJ+ I would be raising here , so K9 is a raise.
Keep these coming, I love the what would you do questions with options.
Thanks Charles!
I’m excited about CORE. Looks like a cool product. I also like the new format. It gives us a way to test our knowledge.
Thanks for the feedback, and enjoy CORE whenever you start it up!
Great video. You light up The game. Thanks!
Thanks Rafal!
You sir are amazing! keep it up. At first I thought "dont we want to keep his bluffing range in play and if we raise we deny him that?" But then I realize he's betting into 2 people and rarely has a pure bluff, so giving him the incorrect odds to call with a medium hand or a flush draw on turn seems great to me now. Also really like the check back on flop. I usually bet those without thinking too much but people like to call and you won't have much fold equity on this type of board.
What do you think about the value of letting him (vs an agressive opponent that would fire twice with pure bluffs) fire off on the river vs the EV of raising him?
Thanks Breno! I think given the BB's sizing on the turn, you shouldn't expect too many bluffs on the river if you call turn - and if you do, the size will likely only be near $50
What if his stack size is the same as yours....? Still the same line or just a Reraise?
Hey James. I also liked the raise. However, if B.B. was 1. Deeper and 2. Good (tricky) would you still be inclined to raise? I’m not sold on that idea since it seems like you’re folding out worse and getting jammed from better (sets and such) and putting yourself in a tricky spot. Thoughts?
My initial instinct is to call. It wasn't self focused like you heard many people say. I think bb is bad. I base that solely on the fact that he starts the hand with less than 100bb. That's usually a sign that a player doesn't understand basic strategy. Based on that I felt like it was very possible that he could have been playing a strong hand terribly. It was also very possible that he could play a had you we're ahead of incorrectly. Basically, there's a lot of unpredictability here- not because he's a strong player. Initially, my instinct was to just sort of take what he gives me and let him make a mistake
I like how you point out that there are a great many river cards that would make a river call extremely difficult. In that sense, I like the case you make for jamming in that spot
Great content!
What is your calling range there? Are you raising also with hands like 109?
Also, which hands would you take as bluffs?
Thank you for your videos, I really like them
Cheers Mikel! Honestly, our continuance on the turn will be fairly small (mostly because of our flop check, and then partially because the continuance responsibility is shared between EP3 and us on the turn)...so I'm not sweating perfect range construction. It's a 67bb stacked player in the lowest game in the room - no need to over think it =)
Fantastic analysis. I think this decision would be trickier if the BB had bet $45 instead; then it's not so obvious what we're up against.
I think in a live 1/3 setting, there is not as much inelasticity as you're assuming here. That is, even though there is not much of a difference from your pov between raising to 80 and shipping, there is a difference to opponent. You may be losing worse 9's, 8's, sds, and fds with this sizing that you don't necessarily want to lose. Agree raise, but think 3xish is preferable to ship.
Here is the problem 9:45
(I'm a beginner)
The beginner tables I play at - have pro players who have 82, 93 and similar beautiful colorful hands as a part of their playable range.
Even UTG.
How do you deal with "I'll play everything" + bluff whenever kind of players?
bhushan sohani Just play good cards and raise big pre. Playing garbage makes hand reading very difficult and makes bad beats more prevalent, but ultimately they’re printing money for you.
@@gregdavid9884 Thank you for the input!
I'm reading up as much as I can - variance & fundamentally good approach pretty much summarize to what you've suggested.
So here's my problem. I agree with your conclusion, and it's the one I came to, albeit on slightly different reasoning - I couldn't see any hand that could be beating me now that made a reasonable holding for the BB. (I'd expect him to bet an overpair to the board a very high percentage of the time pre-flop, and honestly I think it would be a big mistake not to, given the pre-flop action that occurred before action got to him. If he had a set on the flop, I'd expect him to bet it, given the board texture and the fact that he has two potential customers to get value from; if he's made a hand on the turn, I'd expect a larger bet, and we block all but one combination of 98s.) I expect the BB to show up with either an inferior pair (let's say pocket sixes or sevens) or a draw. If he's got a pair I want to get value from it, and if he's got a draw then I want to charge it. Either way there seems no reason to just hand him a free card on this turn, given the action he's taken so far. The turn bet in particular seems as though he might've missed a backdoor draw of some kind (let's say he had pocket fours with the four of clubs) and wanted to take down the pot cheaply.
But as I said, there's a problem... it took me ten minutes to come to this conclusion. In an online game you have to make decisions like this in seconds. I just don't see how you put that much thought into a single decision, even with a great deal of practice, when you're that limited for time. Reaching the conclusion I came to involved thinking through a lot of my opponent's potential range, how likely he was to play specific hands the way he'd actually played them, etc. And while you do a lot of that mid-hand (you can probably rule out overpairs to the 9 as a likely holding from preflop action alone), it still seems like an awful lot of analysis, and not an awful lot of time to do it. Any thoughts?
The more you practice it, the quicker it becomes. There is no shortcut for the off-table exploration =)
What room do you play in? Would love to play with the person that has taught me so much!
Would it be wrong or too nitty to just fold K9o PF here? To me it's a marginal hand that doesn't play great post-flop and when you get 1 or 2 callers when attempting to steal you find yourself in a bloated pot with a not-so-great hand. In the end you get a little bit lucky in turning top pair (there's always some luck involved of course,) but what happens if the turn is, say, the Ts and you face the same bet?
The best option would seem, to me at least, to be to fold. Which means that PF when you try to steal the dead money in the pot, your backup plan if you get called is basically to hope to make a pair, since you'll rarely flop any sort of draw with this hand.
I know that you, James, obviously have your post-flop play locked down and that you'd know what to do in most spots, but for most players is it wrong to say that it'd be wiser not to play this hand and look for a better spot to do it with?
I think the real question is: what if the hero missed the turn and BB bets (cause he showed weakness when he checked the flop) the $25? Is the hero going to fold or still fight for the pot?
Love the open size James
Initially I wanted to raise, but I saw that I would have to shove (I don't like to make exploitable baby raises), and I thought bb did not have enough equity we wanted him to fold. But there are more draws and combo draws here than I initially thought, and we can have bluffs here as well.
I need a caopy of flopzilla. Do you have a code to get me a discount?
Cheers! I do not have a code unfortunately =(
Hi i have a question , in my view i will also raise for some reason , but in poker theory when we raise/bet is either for value ?/Bluff? what kind of better hand will fold to us? A9? if we are value what kind of hand will call our raise? maybe some donkey will call with flush draw straight draw or what ever draw.. so shouldn't we call to induce bluff in later street? my personal reason for raising in this spot i am turning my made hand to bluff, i wanted a fold more then someone call me , i know my objective. as this top pair 9 with kick kicker is very vulnerable, while a Ace Q J T , any club , 6 or 7 drop we will don't know where we at . so can any pro help me understand
Just take a moment to think about, what Heros hand look like to Villain, when Hero check back the flop as the preflop raiser but then wake up with a huge raise on the turn. Does that look like an overpair, a flopped set or 98 of diamonds? I dont think so, because why would Hero not have C-bet the flop with those hands?
By waking up on the turn like this, Hero is basically saying, he has a 9, or that the small bet size induced him to bluff. And how often does the preflop raiser have a 9? Not very often, so while it was an overcard, it should not be nearly as scary as an A or K.
So I think, Hero can get locked up here a lot more often, than you think. He can get locked up by worse 9X and also by 8X a lot of the time. Or even by A3 of spades, because Villain is just tired of being pushed around and bullied by the bigger stacks.
I do agree though, that because of the sizing, all draws will fold, unless Villain is like the greatest whale in the world. But thats not the worst thing, and its certainly better than letting the draws get there for cheap and then pay off on the river.
i totally agree what you say , but my question is this raise value or bluff. from my own view this is a bluff , i dont mind a fold from villain but what better hand will fold?
Its clearly not a bluff, since we are not expecting a single better hand to ever fold. Some poker litterature will say, that we can only value bet, if we have 51% equity against the hands, which continue. And maybe thats why, you think, its not a value bet.
But the 51% rule is only really true on the river. On all other streets part of the value from betting is to deny equity to other hands, even when we are ahead of them. So in the real world there is no black and white line between value betting or bluffing. Even big fat value bets also get a part of their value from fold equity.
Say you 3-bet preflop with KJ and get 99 to fold. Thats a bluff, because 99 is technically a better hand (like 53/47% equity). However say its the other way around, and you 3-bet 99, and KJ fold. How would you classify that bet? Its not a value bet, because the Villain folded, and in the textbook sense it also not a bluff, because you had the best hand.
But its still essentially the same. You bet and got to win the pot uncontested, which is a great result for you, when otherwise you would have lost it 47% of the time. So especially in situations, where the equity is close, its obviously better to bet and win the pot, than to just check and allow your opponent to stay in the hand.
This raise is for value in the sense, that at least some worse hands will call, but its also for protection, because most of the hands, which will fold, have a decent chunk of equity. When you add those things up, and also factor in, that Villain almost never have a better hand, when he lead this small, the shove is clearly a +EV play.
Now +EV does not mean optimal, but I just dont see, how calling can be more +EV in this spot. So for me its only a question of, which sizing will induce Villain to make more mistakes. If he will get scared of the big size and fold a lot, then raise small and get the rest in on the river.
But if he will think, a shove bluffy, then by all means shove the turn and let him make a big herocall with A3 or 87, because he think, you are full of shit. This is where, it gets a little bit Villain dependent, but I am very much in line with James here in the sense, that just calling is not the best play.
my understanding of value is i want worst hand to call, and my understanding of bluff, better hand to fold. but i rather want a fold then call here , i dont see much worst hand will call here , like what you say maybe villain is the greatest whale so i can value draw over here. 9 2, 93 both hand is unlikely here but its possible hand , even 33 with a club inside is possible. if villain call or shove in this spot i really dont know this hand stlll ahead anot , yup i can pray that villain is a draw hand. my objective is a fold rather then a call , thats why i say i am bluffing, but when we say about bluff we want better hand to fold so this hand is abit ......., value hand , we think we are ahead and we want worst hand to call, but i also cant see much worst hand to call. so you want to say we are valuing because you think we are likely ahead , i also agree but no worst hand is calling, so this is the part we are debating / discussing about. i think both of us agree not much better hand is folding here maybe TT, A 9,and also not much worst hand is calling us too, maybe some donkey that want to gamble with draw will. the reason i will bet here is i feel that my hand is ahead right now most of the time but is too vulnerable to get out draw at the river, lets say i have AA instead of K9 here i would choose to flat and see what card came at river. if its a blank and villain decide to bet again i will call if villain check at river with a blank , i will decide to value bet at river, my hand look like a draw too.
I voted for the call with intention to call the river and I have to say I still think it's the right choice. You say that everyone is thinking just about their own cards, while you want to consider his cards as well. Fair enough, but I'd say that it's much more important what he is going to do with those hands. I simply think that instead of putting him into a potentially tough river spot he actually has an easy decision to make. I think that he is not going to be making big mistakes often enough and if he is not making big mistakes often, then you will not make money. The biggest mistake I could see him making is calling with something like AT of clubs and he has enough outs for the call to be only slightly wrong.
Is it possible that he is a really bad player that would make a big mistake in this spot? Sure, but I'd prefer to have that information before assuming that he is such player. As we can see, he actually folded a hand that he probably liked.
I had a similar situation with QQ in the BB at a live 2/5 game in AC.
I flatted an UTG raise to $20 with 3 callers prior. Flop was J/7/5 rainbow that was checked around. A 5 on the turn got a $50 bet from UTG and 1 caller. I know UTG was a reg fish and the hijack was just floating. The hijack only had 140 behind, so I shoved. After tanking for a while, he showed 5/6 suited before he mucked.
In the right situation, it’s the only move you should make.
i would have liked to see call and always call river as an option in the quiz. also would like to see the math on all those options.
Nice Quiz
I agree with raising on the turn but I still don't understand the massive raise pre flop. I have played both live and online and I don't understand why live players raise so huge. The reality is the math should be the same regardless if it is live or online. My question is what is your plan if the BB goes $50 or $70 instead of $25. Keep the great content coming
Its because, live players at low stakes are mostly recreational players, who come to have fun, so they play way to many hands. Remember the pace in a live game is slower than online, and you can not multi table or play fast fold poker, as many players now do online. You are lucky to get 30 hands per hour, and if you only play 10% of hands, thats an average of 20 minutes between each hand, you are involved in. This create a huge level of boredom and cause people to get involved with anything, which is just remotely playable.
fold pre James lol, great analysis, if it wasnt for your MASSIVE edge postflop, this (for the "students" watching) is a fold pre imo. Although, raise>limp behind is also true
Cheers Lauty!
I think, K9 is an open from the button all day long. Maybe I would back off, if there were 5 limpers ahead off me, but 2 is not enough to make me give up my perfect position. If you look at the range of hands, people limp and even limp-call with, K9 is doing totally fine against that range.
Sure there will be some bad aces in there, and occationally we are dominated by KQ or KJ. But there will also be a lot of other stuff like baby pairs, suited and unsuited connectors, 1-gappers, 2-gappers or just complete junk. And I am totally cool with going postflop with K9 in position against that kind of range.
Also it has long term value just being a pain in the ass preflop in a game, where a lot of recreational players just want to see cheap flops and have some fun. If they have limp-folded to you a few times in a row, they might even get tilted and start to make some bad calls both pre and post, because they feel, they are being pushed around.
i feel like most people that play live have no idea how much is in the pot anyway
Villain looks like a fish with his small stack and his bet size but I still think he will fold alot of worse hands after you raise and will mainly call with better hands. But I never play live though and I know live players are often calling stations. I feel like some nitty online players would fold a hand like 9T or most draws here. Villain easily could have TT or even JJ too.
Would you also raise if villain played much deeper ?
I would for sure. Just ask yourself, if it was checked to you, how much would you bet? 50 maybe? And if so, then why will you change your mind and accept, that only 25 goes into the pot, just because Villain was first to act? Its like, you are handing him the keys to your car and letting him decide, where you want to go.
Now obviously you should not just click it back to 50, or at least that is not the strategy, I will use. So as a result of his bet, maybe 95 goes in on the turn rather than 50. But that is a lot better than 25, because you have the best hand nearly always, and he bet small, because he want to keep the pot small, not because he want to make it big.
And its also about simply taking control of the hand. If he give action to your raise, he will usually check the river, and then its you, not him, who decide, if a bet goes in on the river or not. If the river card is bad, and you think, you can not bet profitably again, then just check back the river and get to showdown.
Why jam the 9 on the turn? I understand you need to protect your hand but arent you supposed to risk the least amount that would be effective? If you jam only what beats you calls you. If you 4x him isnt this the best of both worlds?
I assumed villain would pay the $54 premium (the delta between my shove and your 4x raise) with second best hands. If you disagree with that, then a smaller size could easily be better =)
When you call you protect your calling range... what are you going to do with QJ? A5? 77? A3? etc? you need a calling range here and you want some decent hands to protect it. If you jam all your K9+ then what strong hands do you have when you call? They can jam any river and print money vs your crap capped calling range. (sure this is a wining play vs horrible players who cant adjust but so is playing good)
What does the raise accomplish? Only better hands will call and you only fold out the bluffs. Will 8-x call?...only if they are fish...(we don't know what player types we are facing). What do u mean what are we calling for??...we call because we have the right odds and we can bluff catch ...so if you raise and player calls then that puts you in a difficult spot...only raise with 88, 22, 33, and to balance that we mix in bluffs like QJs, JTs, QTs...
As a pure default, when I face undersized bets and have a hand, I would bet for value, if it was checked to me, I will typically go for a raise. So I completely agree with that. For me the only question would be the size. And here the hand was a bit awkward, because Villains stack after leading for 25 was a bit to short to make two normal bets but also deep enough, that a shove was an overbet. Which might get a weak player to fold a bit more, than I would ideally like him to.
So I would raise this to something like 95$ (keep it below 100 for psycological reasons), leave him 100$ behind, and look to play the river in position. Sure it sucks, if he donk shove the river, but I think, we have a better chance to get him to commit money to the pot with worse 1 pair hands, if we turn it into a 3 street game.
If checked to on the river, my plan would be to jam on pretty much any card except maybe for the absolutly worst ones like an 8 or the T of clubs, where I would just check behind and get to showdown. Now I am not saying, that the turn shove is wrong, and its certainly better than calling. But this is how, I would have played the hand against an opponent, whom I assume is fairly bad.
Vis mindre
Svar
It's still in the raising bucket and I love that you are thinking ahead!
Unless you know this is a bad player, I don't see why raising is better here. What worse hands are calling you? You bring up worse 9's, but what worse 9's can he have that call a $22 raise pre-flop? maybe 9/10 suited that spiked a 9. Even that I see as a check most of the time. There are way more combinations or either overpairs or sets that take this line (10's and J's specifically that don't want to go all-in pre-flop). I like this as a call and then you can bluff catch the river to maximize equity. Ace of clubs is the only card that really scares me here on the river. Anything other than that, I am calling any river bet.
since he was leading while showing weakness, i would act differently after the turn. i would check, but for the right reasons: i would check to induce a bluff shove from him, while considering folding to a river AJT or Q (depending on his bet size). my thinking would be to induce his bluff while i have a very decent SDV hand, and not really worried about most of
the river cards. i think the EV in this type of play is a bit more profitble than the one you toke, but hey - you'r Splitsuit so i'm not sure i'm right...
great video, Thnks!
So if BB did have double 8s, 3s or 2s, making that small bet would have been very effective in drawing out your punch, and then he could eat your lunch. Is that not a decent strategy? Why should BB broadcast their hand?
If he knew the small bet would induce a lot of raises, sure. But those sets are 9 combos total and $1/$2 is not a player pool that gets induced to make raises particularly often...
Hrm. Okay when I paused the video I said call the turn. You usually go on about the 2 questions you have to ask yourself when you raise;
Can I get better hands to fold? Certainly not. Either they have an overpair, a set, or have an ace kicker - either way I don't see the BB going away.
Can I get a worse hand to call? Well, maybe - only if it's a drawing hand. A worse hand then a pair of nines goes away. The only hands I expect the BB to have that might call are JT, QT, QJ. A flush draw would have been all over that board on the flop.
So, by the logic you often give us - raising is not the right action.
EDIT: Okay - if you were trying to get folds right from the very beginning you don't care if worse hands call, so a raise is fine - and there's no reason not to force them all-in if you expect them to fold. There was no way for your responders to know you were trying to force folds and thus the 'Can I get worse hands to call?' question nixed the 'raise' option.
EDIT2: I LOVE the pricing on Core. Most lessons want $200+ up front. I'd gladly pay $5 per week (or 20 dollars a month) for such a course and pay for it over the year. The up-front cost was prohibitive. I'm definitely signing up next payday.
E1: I do think enough worse hands continue compared to the 10+X combos of sets+98s+A9. There are many reasonable 9x hands that would over-value themselves here, along with draws that live players hate folding. Nobody drives to the casino to fold =P
E2: Cheers! We wanted the pricing to be such a slam dunk that everyone could join and that everyone could get an ROI. Enjoy CORE once you dive in!
You don't necessarily need the worse hands to call. Any equity they fold out is part of the +EV equation
This play is good only if you're also jamming JT and 67 (assuming you're jamming some other 9xs). Otherwise it's a very unbalanced play and is ultra exploitable. I know nobody is probably looking for ways to exploit you at this table, but I think we should think of poker strategy in a general sense which can be applied to all situations, not just "lol 1/3 fish lets jam"
EDIT: even if we balance it out, what hands are we representing with this jam? a slow played set? Any other value hand is betting flop. I just don't see how shoving here is a good play in the long run unless V overfolds way too often. Further, if V is a dumb fish, then i'm sure he has some donkey 2 pairs in his range.
I'm pretty fishy and I would play 88 pretty much exactly the same way in the BB. I like to check on the flop to see if anyone likes their hand enough to bet. If no one bets then I make a small bet on the turn. I figure no one has a flush draw because most people would bet their draw on the flop and if they do have a draw and they call on the turn I have better odds of my set holding up by the river. I'm not suggesting my play is optimal but I assume that at least some other players would do something similar.
Run the math with full set/2pr combos and also half set/2pr combos. See how things shake out and you'll learn quite a bit =)
I think this spot is way to player dependent for any one answer being right, I see lots of passive fish check back sets and over pairs here to you but against the right person this play would be extremely profitable and a great image building play definitely something I'll find myself doing more often to exploit weaker players 😄
We won't always have info, which is why having a default plan (and then of course knowing how to deviate) is so important!
Villain was in the blinds, so he did not check back, he checked it over to the preflop aggressor. Which I think gives very little information, because many players will do that with 100% of their range. However I do think, his turn sizing gives information.
If he had anything strong like an overpair or even another 9, I think, he would have bet bigger than just 25 into 70. So I think, we can at least discount the strong stuff somewhat, but not eliminate it all together, since he could just be bad and have no idea how to size his bets.
Still it does not really matter. If he just flatted preflop with jacks, good for him, if he flopped a set, even better for him. I am not worried about it, because in the long run we are going to crush spots like this, if we just play some solid aggressive poker.
I’d lean fold pre vs two limpers
I remember answering this quiz, but now I don't remember what I answered.
This would be my thinking:
BB is almost certainly weak and not a great player (starting the hand short stack, small turn bet). The only way he has hit this board is if he called the 6x pre flop raise with A2 or A3. If he had A8 he would have bet the flop. More likely he has Q10 suited or something like that.
So the question for me is, is getting him to fold out his equity worth more to us than the potential bluff bet that he would fire on the river? Given his remaining stack size he could potential bluff shove. Us calling a $25 bet isn't going to set off too many warning alarms with him that we're strong. He might think we're drawing as well and could push on any brick card. I mean, isn't this the value of us being in position here?
I trust that James knows what he's talking about here and that the fold is worth more to us now. However I think here that he has so little equity that the possible second bullet is worth more.
I disagree with most of that range assessment - but if you assume it's that wide then flatting makes more sense =)
I know you are right, i'm just struggling to understand why.
I would assume that the absolute best cards he has here are j10 (not clubs). Would you disagree? We more likely than not have 70% equity or better - so all we need is to get an average bluff bet from him of $30 on the river for it to be +ev to call rather than raise (assuming he always folds). Given that the pot will be $120 it's likely that any second bullet he fires is $70 or more. So he only has to bluff 50% of the time.
I do disagree. I think there are many 9x combos that we crush (and of course, he can have A9 and I don't expect him to fold that either), along with many draws. Also, if you call...are you giving a bet on any river club, T, J, Q, or A action?
One other important thing is that he fired 1/3rd pot on the turn. Given that, I'm not expecting a bluff larger than $50 on the river if we just called tbh...
Sounds like a spot where you juggle making an aggressive shove knowing you fold out alot but you also get called by tons of second best 9s and the numerous draws, or do you call and hit awkward river spots. If you call it sounds like you call all rivers since there are so many confusing cards. I like jamming since you can easily get called by worse 9s which is often likely here. It also sets precedence for future pay off spots.
My question would be if he had the same stack as you what would you do...raise to about 80-85 planning to check back the river when called and reevaluate on his river bets?
Also for range, if the table is limp heavy i would think bb could call pretty wide with mainly suited connectors, suited one gappers, Ace rag suited, and smaller pocket pairs.
Some people might check their sets planning a check raise as you mentioned, but I think alot of people that do that will half pot or a little more the turn to try to make that value back up, especially with so many draws open.
Small turn bet feels like a confused 8 or 9 or a probe bet by a draw.
If u flash him the king he'll think u was having KK :D
At my home game if you show one card you have to show both.
Is that a misunderstanding of the "show one, show all" rule?
I'm OK with that =)
I think he won't. Because KK almost always would C-bet on the flop
Disagree. As usual a great video and your thought process has helped me immensely to improve my game. In this case I plugged in a reasonable range that would call this shove JJ-88, 33-22, A9s, AcTc+, Ac8c-Ac2c, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o and you only have 29% vs this range, it seems to me that you are folding away only the portion of his range that you crush
Yeah, I agree... But I think this video is mainly to make clear that it's a bad idea to let Villain get away with a small betsize ( in case he's on some kind of draw ). So when V bets this small you're better off raising. However, if V bets > 2/3 pot, I'd probably just call in this spot and see what developes on the river. ( I'm not sure what James' thoughts are on that, though. )
Also add in 97 and reduce the number of set/2pr combos due to bet size and add in more FDs (with two overs and/or straight draws attached too) and see how things pan out. Remember, there is FE so the question doesn't end at "do I have 51%+ equity vs the calling range?" =)
I did but even then you are still at 36% when called, so i plugged that into your FE calc and you breakeven with 21% folds. I added more combos even though I am not sure they would call such a large preflop raise; with those extra combos you still need a handful of fold to breakeven. I am totally in favor of attacking small donk bets because it also triggers interesting metagame follow ups so I am not saying your move is crazy but I still think that saying "much much better than calling" is a bit of stretch. Finally, this is more about knowing your villain, but my experience facing these type of bets is that they break down to two scenarios either they vanish (as your guy did) or they were inducing because they have seen me being aggressive until then...
I guess most of the LV low stakes players I meet would respond much more tightly to the $22 preflop raise. I would expect the range that calls the shove to be more like JJ-88, 33-22, A9s, AcTc+, JcTc, and 98s, unless you already have an exceptional image at the table. This only gives you 14% equity vs that range. If this is an LA player though, I think it's an easy raise, because they will call with any 9 or any draw and their preflop range is likely to be much wider.
I think, your range assumptions are way to pessimistic. If Villain is a competent player, it might be true, that he only call preflop with good suited hands or pocket pairs, like you assume. But then he would also 3-bet TT-JJ, so there you have to take away almost half the combos, which you assume, Hero is behind to.
And if he is not competent, which is a lot more likely given his stack size and the fact, that he undersized his bet, which good players typically dont do, then he can be in there with a ton of unsuited 9X and 8X, which Hero can get value from.
raise
why do you always ignore sets
There are very few combos of them as-is, and even less if you assume sets wouldn't bet the turn for only $25. When compared to other combos, the low density of sets become less scary =)
@@splitsuit number of compos are equal for all hands, betting little with a small with considering also the flush draw, players play differently you know
@@ts3784 the source of your confusion may be on the combo counting. Check out this video for more info: th-cam.com/video/ohAT6yeR9hI/w-d-xo.html
Would’ve been interesting if he bets flop too
Why a raise to 400 ? Psychological ?
The raise is to 174 since villain has a smaller stack.
Willie Bagnai Exactly. So my question remains regarding the sizing. There are many bet sizes which put villain all in....or lesser amounts which are still committing villain for his whole stack.
Why $400+. That’s 4 stacks of chips when 2 accomplishes the same thing. Psychological reasons?
probably not, it was not his main intention to scare him away so, I don't think it was for any psychological reasons.
that is fair and psychological it whould be better to raise 180. do it like that my experience says me that fishs are influenced by that
I think the raise is fine, but I also don't mind a call since you are in position. If you just call the turn then he is likely to bet the river again with all of the marginal hands you talked about like a pair of 8's or J9... If you raise the turn he is only folding worse hands and only calling with better hands or the flush draw...and it would have to be a nut flush draw to call the all in for his last $150. The pot was $95 and I don't think he calls for $150 with just a straight draw. I would like to give him the chance to fire another shot on the river, when you just call his $25 he thinks you are weak and his continuation range on the river would be pretty wide.
Bet flop