FIRST LOOK AT My Pocket Pennant Run Stats, Data, and the “APBA Problem” for your replays!

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ธ.ค. 2024

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  • @terryp3034
    @terryp3034 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks for giving this delightful game serious attention. In fact, I would never have known about it but for your video introducing it. The issue of relievers in a replay is a big one. What the replayer has to keep reminding himself is that the manager did not know how his players were going to perform that year...and we do. You have to suspend that knowledge and say, "hey, the manager knows the player has the skills and has done it for him in the past and maybe this is the game where he'll get back on track." We know he won't but the manager had no idea. It actually adds more excitement to the game as you hold your breath on each roll of the dice. Outstanding video and topic.

  • @Rayman11111
    @Rayman11111 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    I've started a 1961 replay and to get the C and D rated pitchers in the game, I simply use the pitchers that were used in that particular game - thanks Baseball Reference! So far that seems to be working pretty well. Thanks for the video!

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks Ray! My struggle there is that the game in real life and on my table often don’t line up very well. That’s my Sparky Lyle example in this video. Suppose the game was a 5-4 victory in real life, with Sparky getting the save. But on my table, I lose 8-1. I can’t use Sparky in that game. So I get stuck.

    • @Rayman11111
      @Rayman11111 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@KurtBergland you're correct. I should have said that I use the pitchers that were used in the real life game as a guideline for what I will use. I play it by ear, depending on who's been used in previous games. I'm like you though. If I didn't use real life as a guideline, the Chi Chi Olivo's of the world wouldn't get much playing time, if any!!!

  • @johnfreeman263
    @johnfreeman263 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks Kurt for another great Pocket Pennant Run video. My guess is that the BA, runs, Ks, HRs and Es will allow start to float toward a medium of all the years as you play the 3 ,4 and 5 starters. As far as the RP issue - as you know As you know, in APBA the starting rotations are based on IP. So the SP at the top of the rotation is not the best rating (A or B) but the guy who logged the most IP (probably Catfish Hunter on the 76 NYY). So maybe the RP "discipline" would be to rank the RPs by their IPs and go first to the RP with the most relief IPs (essentially create an APBA like relief pitcher rotation). Well just a thought. Sorry for the long comment. Thanks again for all your tremendous videos!

  • @gandalf970
    @gandalf970 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Kurt I have run all the numbers and put them into a spreadsheet using the pitcher, batter and power cards. I can email them to you if you like. An example is that an A pitcher vs an A batter with A power will have an .229 batting average. That same batter vs a D pitcher would have a .343

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks! How does defense play into it?

    • @gandalf970
      @gandalf970 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@KurtBergland Since its only one single and only against a C or D defense it improves the batting average .007.

  • @571951rhoehn1
    @571951rhoehn1 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Very good information!

  • @farpointgamingdirect
    @farpointgamingdirect 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I've started an 1871 replay; pretty fun so far

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Great! Let me know how it goes!

    • @farpointgamingdirect
      @farpointgamingdirect 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@KurtBergland So far, the scoring is way down compared to the National Association avg R/Gm, but the game was almost a different animal back then; but the good teams are winning, the lousy teams are losing, and the Athletics are tearing up the Association with the Red Stockings and White Stockings hit on their tail; I love playing old, old seasons!

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@farpointgamingdirect very cool-please keep me posted with updates!

  • @bruceberkowicz6427
    @bruceberkowicz6427 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I enjoyed the video. With all due respect, I have a few thoughts: 40 games is probably too small a sample size; at 22:16 - you may want to make a rule that a reliever cannot pitch in more than 2 consecutive games; I like the stats comparison you are doing, but again not being mean just my opinion, by picking teams from different seasons it’s hard to know what the baseline really should be.

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi Bruce! Thanks for your thoughts! I agree-40 games is way too small a sample size, as I said in the video. The purpose of the video is to establish some preliminary data and to start what I hope will be helpful conversation. Having said that, I think we can start to see some things that may become trends. The purpose of the varied teams and seasons is to try to give folks who are in the Facebook group an idea of what they might be able to expect-which, by my unscientific count is running about 2/3 doing leagues like this one and about 1/3 doing traditional single-season as played replays. You aren’t being mean at all! Of course it’s difficult to determine what the baseline should be-that’s the purpose of offering comparative seasonal data. The very early results seem to show that the engine handles the current game most accurately, and that that’s what people might expect. The walks, errors, and home runs, at this point, most closely mirror today’s game, and other pieces of the data may begin to move that way as well. Stay tuned.

    • @bruceberkowicz6427
      @bruceberkowicz6427 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@KurtBergland Interesting breakdown of the people playing on FB. Without looking, would have thought more like 50-50. Can Maris hit 61? How many do McGwire and Sosa hit? Can the 69 Mets pull of the miracle? That’s what I was expecting more of. But I totally get the “Who’s better - 27 Yanks or 69 O’s?” line of thinking. Keep up the good work, sir!

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@bruceberkowicz6427 thanks Bruce!

    • @bruceberkowicz6427
      @bruceberkowicz6427 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@KurtBergland Watched a short vid by Matt McKeever on the software and I now understand why players are less inclined to play season replays. It's roster size - limited to 15 batters and 15 pitchers

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@bruceberkowicz6427 but that’s not true. Every player on every team is available, you just can’t put them all on the roster card.

  • @jjfairfield5925
    @jjfairfield5925 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Nice breakdown Kurt. Would you predict that when you play more and use the lower graded pitchers and then combine them to the results you showed today for a more complete set of averages for your categories you will see the results fall into 70’s-80’s ranges?

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi JJ! Difficult to extrapolate. My guess at this point would be that averages will be slightly lower than that era, but power will be slightly higher (perhaps on a 1987 level?) but that runs scored should be comparable. That’s my hypothesis at this point.

    • @jjfairfield5925
      @jjfairfield5925 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      If that is what the results turn out to be that’s great as far as I’m concerned. 80’s is my favorite decade.

  • @bruinsfan9645
    @bruinsfan9645 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    The game stats will obviously reflect the quality of the pitchers used. But, the issue I have is the individual stats are going to suffer because of the broad range of each Player rating. Its a very abbreviated attempt similar to APBA to have a small amount of results available for a large amount of players. You’re just not going to get much separation with individual stats. Thanks Kurt

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks Bruins. I tried to explain in the video that I think there WILL be separation because four total variables (batter rating, pitcher rating, power, and opposing defense) ALL have an impact on averages and even slugging. I think the sim is getting shortchanged in this area. Time will tell if it turns out to be enough separation, I suppose, but I’m pretty confident that there is separation because of these four competing variables.

    • @bruinsfan9645
      @bruinsfan9645 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@KurtBergland Your going to have separation, But it will come in groups of players rather than having two guys at .315 avg and three at .309, Your going to have a group of players batting between .300 and .320 with the I think there’s five variables Kurt with the addition of Pitchers Control rating that exist at the top row of the card’s. Along with the amount of variable results you get in the columns.You know as well as I there’s a possibility of almost 200 different Batting Avg’s available in any given year. Even with eight variables it still not enough in my opinion. Thanks, For all you do for our hobby.

  • @AlRedsoxFan
    @AlRedsoxFan 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    :-) wind howling again
    Good stuff 👏 👍

  • @greg7129
    @greg7129 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    As for relief pitcher usage on a full season replay go by the innings they actually pitched during the real season. Should stop any overuse of any pitcher. As you say the game situation will dictate which pitchers are used game by game as the season wears on. Hope that makes sense

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      It does. It’s difficult to do, but it makes sense.

  • @rickert566
    @rickert566 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I enjoyed the video. But can you answer this? The batter gets a penalty for hitting the same side as the pitcher, but the pitcher doesn't get a penalty for opposite sides. Has this been factored in?

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi Rick-I don’t know the answer. Does anyone reading this know?

    • @rcd4466
      @rcd4466 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Pitcher’s penalty would be the batter doesn’t get downgraded. I assume lefty/righty percentages figure into the batter’s grade. But here again, with only four grades it’s a broad swath for sure.

  • @johnbowen6443
    @johnbowen6443 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Have you looked at the data after using version 2.0's rules tweak of the platoon advantage?

  • @richardbutler1048
    @richardbutler1048 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    It seems like PPR is low on offense from what I have seen from others. It will be interesting to how much your offense increases using the third and fourth pitchers.

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Seems like it is. From what I’ve played into the next batch of games, it still looks a little low overall. I don’t think it will be too low from a runs scored standpoint to be playable and enjoyable-but the home run totals are definitely best suited for 21st century baseball.

  • @bruceberkowicz6427
    @bruceberkowicz6427 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Final thought: all tabletop sports games are about abstraction. Some things just need to be simplified. Otherwise you would have a game that requires 4 dice rolls and chart lookups for each pitch! Who wants that game? Not me. But abstraction can detract from realism. More abstraction may mean less realistic results. Each gamer needs to find the game or games that have the right level of abstraction and are fun, but give enough realistic results.

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Without question. My feeling is that the games that minimize abstraction to the nth degree, and there are several around today, are on the endangered species list. The importance of PPR isn’t PPR, but the genre (with increased abstraction) that it has demonstrated has an incredible market. Watch what happens over the next twelve months as designers follow this example.

    • @bruceberkowicz6427
      @bruceberkowicz6427 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@KurtBergland Totally agree!

    • @TheGrooveMaster10
      @TheGrooveMaster10 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I agree simplicity is best with just enough detail to keep it interesting I don't get caught up in individual statistics as much, close enough is good enough in the end it's wins and loses the road to get there isn't as important to me.

  • @captainnolan5062
    @captainnolan5062 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    It seems to me that you should take the average runs scored etc., from each of the years from which your 40 teams come from to get the real life averages from your combined 'fictional' 40 team league. Then you will be able to compare apples to apples (the real life 40 team leage averages) with the stats that PPR produces for you.

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Ok, fair enough, but what would I then do with that information? It’s important, but it wasn’t used to normalize the ratings in any way.

    • @captainnolan5062
      @captainnolan5062 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You would then compare your replay results to those numbers (rather than the several seasons you picked).

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@captainnolan5062 seems like a huge error margin either way, right?

    • @captainnolan5062
      @captainnolan5062 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@KurtBergland With a smaler sample size you can never be sure.

  • @rcd4466
    @rcd4466 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    My batting averages are low also. I have found the defensive play card doesn’t provide enough “action”, so I am trying this change: singles are allocated to 9D, 10C and 11B. That makes for more risk/reward for defenders and should boost the offense a bit.

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      That could do it! Let me know more when you’ve played more with the system that way.

  • @JosephWCleary
    @JosephWCleary ปีที่แล้ว

    Errors jump because more balls were put in play. Less strikeouts.

  • @NickBriglia
    @NickBriglia 4 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Less strikeouts can also produce more errors because more balls are being put into play.

    • @KurtBergland
      @KurtBergland  4 หลายเดือนก่อน

      True-a host of new variables