ALL this makes sense until............ other Countries will buy your US rotten debt. But.... there is a but. The world is making a huge de-dollarization. Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, none is going to buy more of your rotten US debt. That is why you are at war with the world.
The topic of the global liquidity cycle seems to gain traction lately. Here you can even see some of the same charts used by Raoul Pal’s “everything code”. When the same logic is repeatedly being presented, I somehow get the suspicion that there is something up. It’s almost like we are supposed to look into this direction and await the global liquidity to kick in, while the ones in the know do something else… On the other hand J. Powell just said today that he can not hold the tight policy too long and indicated rate cuts are coming earlier and bigger than what the markets currently expects. I hope you guys are right about this. Even though you’ve reiterated the idea of the everything code from Raoul Pal, I still want to compliment the presentation and the sublemented data. Nicely done.
You know, I do absolutely agree with you on the thought that people in the know just "may" guide you down a certain path while they themselves do something else... I do not know who Raoul Pal is. However, if you have watched Mark for a few years, you may see that there is a certain integrity and consistency with him. He seems like an extremely genuine and passionately caring person for his audience. Ultimately, though, and eventually as Investors, we must trust whatever resource information we are using TO make a move AND make a move to invest! It's the only way we'll find out if our moves will yield something for us. I sincerely hope you make the right moves... Take care and well.
@@peterreuter1339 I think the traction is everyone in the space latching on to a good idea and taking it to make content. But it does make me kinda think about the impact of us all using the same framework. I'm unsure if we are retail or maybe a different class of Informed-retail and majority of retail will still be buying into the hype while we take some profit come 2025. I've been thinking about this alot. My conclusion is global liquidity is a wave that is pretty unstoppable, but don't confuse yourself with the wave during the ride and get off
That’s how messed up our central banks, federal reserve and monetary system / money supply are. Our debt based system is like a religion. It only works if the vast majority in the religion don’t see a more logical way out of that circular thinking. Which is why Bitcoin is being adopted more and more world wide.
Awesome video as always. Just towards the end you said about the cycle continuing for another 12-15 months before the cycle changes. Do you mean it will change from the 3 year up & 1 year down pattern?
This is what makes me paranoid about Bitcoin. No government wants an outside form of money taking market share from their respective currency. We all know how Wall Street is in bed with DC so it’s not too far fetched that Wall Street pumps and dumps Bitcoin. They did it with gold multiple times with the most recent happening in 2013
Hey mark, do you have a video that specifically covers why the whole “asset sensitivity” thing occurs? I can’t wrap my mind around it. I always believed that the price was directly correlated to the market cap. So for the sake of simplicity, assuming all bitcoin were in circulation and its market cap was 2 trillion, why wouldn’t it require an additional 2 trillion for the price to double? That’s generally what I don’t understand. Thanks for all you do brother!
I work for a semiconductor company and these cycles match up with the semiconductor industry cycles, which also is known to have that 3 years up 1 year down cycle. Particularly if you’re supplying parts in the consumer sector. Companies supplying parts to industrial sectors saw less of a downturn. We’ve just come out of our down year a quarter or so ago, and starting to see things picking up again.
"To be honest, ever since I watched your videos, I unfollowed all the so-called advisors, media, and gurus I used to follow. There’s a big chance they’ll mislead you to use your positions for their liquidity. Your explanations are unique. Your research is legitimate and shows due diligence. It has made it clearer for me how to invest and trade in the long term, especially your explanation about the debt cycle and the Global Liquidity Index. Please continue creating such highly informative content."
A letter when all your Gains is lost . your contribution made it up for the lose .now think of that a penny saved is a penny in the end saved no tax interest till it reaches its max
The highs keep getting higher, so isn't there a point where the debt-based system completely collapses because it cannot be funded/refinanced? What if we're approaching the end of the road this cycle? Might we never get to the next top?
You Mark and Raoul are my 2 favourite people in the space! Wish you all the best and thanks for all of your videos - I am learning a lot! Much appreciated!😊
But, what happens when the average person can't pay their bills en masse and everything starts to collapse? I mean when the average person's salary just can't keep up with inflation from the bailouts? Socialism until the end? Are you saying that you think this process can continue forever? I don't think so. The piper always needs to be paid and this can kicking thing is a bit long in the tooth. Just my opinion. I'm still in the markets. Commodities that is...
If the average person can't pay their bills, they live beyond their means. (Not smart.) I am retired and live better than most people with double my income. We manage our resources. We carry no balance on credit cards and buy clean low mileage cars with cash. Empty pockets are a choice, it is 4th. grade arithmetic. We live well and want for nothing.
@@1Skeptik1 I'm with you. Most are not however. Same point in time, you can't tell me that inflation hasn't had at least some effect on your quality of life unless you're ahead of the game and your assets are beating inflation. That said, inflation will continue to rise. Will your income? It will need to somehow or other. Unless you own enough of the right assets and can beat inflation. Am I wrong?
Man, you are just amazing. Have been researching on such kind of topics for years and have seen a lot of good guys on YT, but you imoress me with every single video. Great knowledge you transfer to us for free - big thanks to you!! Greetings from declining and brainwashed 🇩🇪
Hi mark, interesting charts, though there's one thing I really don't get. If all of the sp500's growth is just from increased debt, and gold is more sensitive to that than the sp, why does the sp500 outperform gold by a mile?
Hello Mark! You have by far the best financial content on the internet, but I have one doubt when it comes to the 4 year debt cycle. Namely, the federal bank should start cutting interest rates very soon, and that would be a turning point and the beginning of a significant correction of stock prices in the past. If the fed start cutting interest rates in the next two to three months, how would the prices of stocks and cryptocurrencies continue to rise through 2025?
Yeah, that's a contrarian view, there's a guy from Ireland shows the same views but will we need people just for gdp when a.i etc are going 2 make many, many more jobs obsolete
Recently come across your channel. Thank you. I’m new to all the things. No good with math or economics- distinctly remember an ex boss drawing milk cartons to explain a financial situation to me. But keen to learn. Also new to crypto investing. Thank you again. Anyone told you that you sound like McConaughey?
Bitcoin is a leading indicator and currently about 20% down from top. I expect the markets to make a similar down move over next 10 months, which results a first rate cut in 2025 and off to moon everything goes.
Great content, let's put your best vids together and gift them to each states dept of education for senior high economics!!! But first correct your grammar as it is fewer people, less money😅 not less people.
The commercial RE cycle is much longer, and the current up trend has been terminated. It's about to rattle the asset bubble as it did in 2008. My guess is that this predictable 4y liquidity based model will not play out,cas we are on another 2008 scenario now.
Because a huge percentage of people now watch TH-cam on their TV’s. Which means their phones are free to scan. But for the people that are watching on their phones, I also leave a link in the description & comment section. Hope that helps!
Mark in this video you're talking about knowing when to sell.. in another video you talk about borrowing against your assets, Bitcoin/Crypto 🤯 Are you going to be covering both topics in your next live webinar presentation?👍🙏✝️🇺🇸🏄🏄🏄🏄🏄🏄🏄🏄 The above message was sent before your video was over and I think you just explained it ( different types of assets to buy in these different cycles ) and you will be explaining it in your webinar👍
The explanation around collateral was not convincing enough for me. Collateral is not just debt - it is a particular kind debt that sets it apart from general debt. The most pristine form of collateral are US Treasuries and this is the crux of the problem - there aren't enough to keep the liquidity cycle rolling on.
@@1MarkMoss Sure, many of your shows start off with a landscape overview of where we are and how we got there but te shows usually end with a pitch that BTC is the best way to deal with a bad economic landscape. In effect you are running a show not unlike ITM trading where after depressing news Gold is always the answer. Credibility is lost when one pitches too hard an asset as it makes your show seem less like a educational enterprise to more like a salesman who wants you to buy something. I understand your passion for BTC but the force to witch you push it makes me perceive the show as just a lead up to the final sales pitch.
Big fan of the channel. Been watching for years. But you gotta give credit to Raoul Pal. You even used is GMI global liquidity index. Still a fan. Just give credit where credit is due.
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We need to stop polluticians printing money, devaluing currency and becoming billionaires. FJB
ALL this makes sense until............ other Countries will buy your US rotten debt. But.... there is a but. The world is making a huge de-dollarization. Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, none is going to buy more of your rotten US debt. That is why you are at war with the world.
Excellent content. Thanks for sticking with this format. Such good information. I never learned any of this in my business classes.
You’re welcome! And thanks for the feedback, I’m really glad you enjoyed it.
Somebody watched the everything code... Give credit where credit is due man! You even used his charts. Raoul pals work
Facts! Mark explained the everything code even better than Raoul Pal, but yes, give him a credit 😁
Raoul goes more in details. Def worth watching.
Nothing new under the sun.......its okay if someone else pitches this first. Did Raoul invent this? I doubt it....but he is good too.
SM Dollar
If you watch Marks channel, he interviewed Raoul. They are buddies 👌🏻
how are you not the biggest finance channel on you tube? Great work as always
Mark. Can you do a video tying all this into SPX vs Commodities like uranium? Can commodities be the fastest boat?
It would be great to see how all commodities perform
The topic of the global liquidity cycle seems to gain traction lately. Here you can even see some of the same charts used by Raoul Pal’s “everything code”.
When the same logic is repeatedly being presented, I somehow get the suspicion that there is something up. It’s almost like we are supposed to look into this direction and await the global liquidity to kick in, while the ones in the know do something else…
On the other hand J. Powell just said today that he can not hold the tight policy too long and indicated rate cuts are coming earlier and bigger than what the markets currently expects.
I hope you guys are right about this. Even though you’ve reiterated the idea of the everything code from Raoul Pal, I still want to compliment the presentation and the sublemented data. Nicely done.
You know, I do absolutely agree with you on the thought that people in the know just "may" guide you down a certain path while they themselves do something else... I do not know who Raoul Pal is. However, if you have watched Mark for a few years, you may see that there is a certain integrity and consistency with him. He seems like an extremely genuine and passionately caring person for his audience. Ultimately, though, and eventually as Investors, we must trust whatever resource information we are using TO make a move AND make a move to invest! It's the only way we'll find out if our moves will yield something for us. I sincerely hope you make the right moves... Take care and well.
@@curtismorrison8171 check out "the everything code" it's a 2.5 hour deep dive on this topic.
@@peterreuter1339 I think the traction is everyone in the space latching on to a good idea and taking it to make content. But it does make me kinda think about the impact of us all using the same framework. I'm unsure if we are retail or maybe a different class of Informed-retail and majority of retail will still be buying into the hype while we take some profit come 2025. I've been thinking about this alot. My conclusion is global liquidity is a wave that is pretty unstoppable, but don't confuse yourself with the wave during the ride and get off
Nobody explains these things as good as you do. Thanks!
Thank you! 🙏
Incredible insights.....amazing content. Thank you for this Information. Top channel MM!!!
Excellent explanation and very Interesting information, thanks Mark !
Great work, Mark! Easy to digest for anyone wanting to understand these cycles in more depth and how to position yourself accordingly 👍
"Debt is collateral", what a strange phrase. The collateral is what you purchased with that debt, the debt is what you owe.
That’s how messed up our central banks, federal reserve and monetary system / money supply are. Our debt based system is like a religion. It only works if the vast majority in the religion don’t see a more logical way out of that circular thinking. Which is why Bitcoin is being adopted more and more world wide.
Awesome video as always. Just towards the end you said about the cycle continuing for another 12-15 months before the cycle changes. Do you mean it will change from the 3 year up & 1 year down pattern?
I've been listening to your broadcast for several months, you bring so much knowledge and wisdom of Finance work, Central Bank the feds, and debt
Thank you, means a lot!
Mark is the Man providing helpful info to the people.
Explained very well!
Thank you Mark, for taking the time to educate people.
Great analysis.
Less people equal to less productivity could be wrong when people replaced with AI based machines/systems
Agree, but we’d need a government that wants to onshore instead of putting us on a universal basic income.
Your videos have been great and your teaching style makes this complex stuff easy to understand
Very useful knowledge,
And how do derivatives affect all of this financial and market analysis?
This is what makes me paranoid about Bitcoin. No government wants an outside form of money taking market share from their respective currency. We all know how Wall Street is in bed with DC so it’s not too far fetched that Wall Street pumps and dumps Bitcoin. They did it with gold multiple times with the most recent happening in 2013
Mark.
On your slide “Timing the Cycles” you have a picture of a book titled “MOONEEARY CODEX”
Misprint????
Thanks Mark for market analysis.
Can you talk about xrp?
Excellent video mark , thanks a lot 🌟🔥
Amazing video and a great teacher
Hey mark, do you have a video that specifically covers why the whole “asset sensitivity” thing occurs? I can’t wrap my mind around it. I always believed that the price was directly correlated to the market cap. So for the sake of simplicity, assuming all bitcoin were in circulation and its market cap was 2 trillion, why wouldn’t it require an additional 2 trillion for the price to double? That’s generally what I don’t understand. Thanks for all you do brother!
You are an excellent instructor / communicator, Mark. Thanks for your insight.
Would love to see more cycle videos in depth
Thanks
Mark if you are right on this one you deserve the nobel prize! Fantastic explanations.
Great video Mark, look forward to the webinar!
See you there!
Thank you Mark for all your work and helping people to improve their lives.
Can’t wait till the coming presentation
You’re very welcome, can’t wait to see you there! 🙏
Thanks for bringing us the Macro picture MM. solid info.
Excellent info thank you 🙏
Excellent content, thanks Mark!!! 👏
Glad you liked it!
Thank you Mark.
I work for a semiconductor company and these cycles match up with the semiconductor industry cycles, which also is known to have that 3 years up 1 year down cycle. Particularly if you’re supplying parts in the consumer sector. Companies supplying parts to industrial sectors saw less of a downturn. We’ve just come out of our down year a quarter or so ago, and starting to see things picking up again.
Excellent! I had an aha moment validating trends versus just timing. Thanks for all your work. Keep up the good work.
Glad it was helpful!
As always, great stuff! Thank you MM
"To be honest, ever since I watched your videos, I unfollowed all the so-called advisors, media, and gurus I used to follow. There’s a big chance they’ll mislead you to use your positions for their liquidity. Your explanations are unique. Your research is legitimate and shows due diligence. It has made it clearer for me how to invest and trade in the long term, especially your explanation about the debt cycle and the Global Liquidity Index. Please continue creating such highly informative content."
Will do! Thanks for commenting
A letter when all your Gains is lost . your contribution made it up for the lose .now think of that a penny saved is a penny in the end saved no tax interest till it reaches its max
Thanks Mark ‼️.👍💯
You’re welcome bud!
Great Content...does the debt cycle correlate closely with the bitcoin halving cycle?
That was really excellent!
YOU SHOULD ST LEAST GIVE CREDIT TO MICHAEL HOWELL IF YOU SRE GOING TO EXPLAIN HIS ANALYSIS, BUT THANK YOU FOR BRAKING IT DOWN FOR PEOPLE.
Useful , thanks for sharing
The highs keep getting higher, so isn't there a point where the debt-based system completely collapses because it cannot be funded/refinanced? What if we're approaching the end of the road this cycle? Might we never get to the next top?
Tone is a bit condescending but otherwise great information.
You Mark and Raoul are my 2 favourite people in the space! Wish you all the best and thanks for all of your videos - I am learning a lot! Much appreciated!😊
I missed the webaanar but how can I get access to a pre recording? Or can you make a follow up video on this topic
Very interesting thanks
You’re welcome!
Great information Mark. Thanks
Excellent explainer!
@MarkMoss when will you talk about the soon to come Texas Stock Exchange??
Flawless overview! I am super excited for the in-depth charts. More of this!
So glad you enjoyed this. Can’t wait to see you there!
Thank you so much. Sending love
Thank you for the info
Thank you!
Thank you Mark and team.
Great video! Thank you Mark.
Thanks very much from NZ Mark. That was insightful! HODL
Impressive interpretation and analysis! I learned an invaluable lesson!!
awesome video
ty for sharing
Anyone have any resources to look into the “asset sensitivity ratio”? I’m curious to learn more about that and its validity
thanks Mark as always
Show me how to put this global liquidity into my trading view charts please.
Metronomes sync only if the ground they a standing on is not fixed but loose. But good analogy anyway. ❤
But, what happens when the average person can't pay their bills en masse and everything starts to collapse? I mean when the average person's salary just can't keep up with inflation from the bailouts? Socialism until the end? Are you saying that you think this process can continue forever? I don't think so. The piper always needs to be paid and this can kicking thing is a bit long in the tooth. Just my opinion. I'm still in the markets. Commodities that is...
If the average person can't pay their bills, they live beyond their means. (Not smart.) I am retired and live better than most people with double my income. We manage our resources. We carry no balance on credit cards and buy clean low mileage cars with cash. Empty pockets are a choice, it is 4th. grade arithmetic. We live well and want for nothing.
@@1Skeptik1 I'm with you. Most are not however. Same point in time, you can't tell me that inflation hasn't had at least some effect on your quality of life unless you're ahead of the game and your assets are beating inflation. That said, inflation will continue to rise. Will your income? It will need to somehow or other. Unless you own enough of the right assets and can beat inflation. Am I wrong?
Man, you are just amazing. Have been researching on such kind of topics for years and have seen a lot of good guys on YT, but you imoress me with every single video. Great knowledge you transfer to us for free - big thanks to you!! Greetings from declining and brainwashed 🇩🇪
Thanks Mr Moss
I like you Mark you help people understand money
Hi mark, interesting charts, though there's one thing I really don't get. If all of the sp500's growth is just from increased debt, and gold is more sensitive to that than the sp, why does the sp500 outperform gold by a mile?
Hello Mark! You have by far the best financial content on the internet, but I have one doubt when it comes to the 4 year debt cycle. Namely, the federal bank should start cutting interest rates very soon, and that would be a turning point and the beginning of a significant correction of stock prices in the past. If the fed start cutting interest rates in the next two to three months, how would the prices of stocks and cryptocurrencies continue to rise through 2025?
This is a good video & analysis
HI! Big fan of your channel and sharing!
Where do you get the GMI Total Liquidity Index data? Thanks ;-)
Good stuff Mark🎉🎉🎉🎉
Thanks. Glad you enjoyed it!
Mark look into "Project 2025".
Yeah, that's a contrarian view, there's a guy from Ireland shows the same views but will we need people just for gdp when a.i etc are going 2 make many, many more jobs obsolete
think about it
codex is what?
It is a code x
Should credit Michael Howell for his work on this topic of global liquidity cycles
amazing content as always:)
Recently come across your channel. Thank you. I’m new to all the things. No good with math or economics- distinctly remember an ex boss drawing milk cartons to explain a financial situation to me. But keen to learn. Also new to crypto investing. Thank you again. Anyone told you that you sound like McConaughey?
So soft landing?
Bitcoin is a leading indicator and currently about 20% down from top. I expect the markets to make a similar down move over next 10 months, which results a first rate cut in 2025 and off to moon everything goes.
Btc has not been around long enough to be a viable long term leading indicator of anything...
Great content, let's put your best vids together and gift them to each states dept of education for senior high economics!!! But first correct your grammar as it is fewer people, less money😅 not less people.
Grazie
The commercial RE cycle is much longer, and the current up trend has been terminated. It's about to rattle the asset bubble as it did in 2008. My guess is that this predictable 4y liquidity based model will not play out,cas we are on another 2008 scenario now.
You’re the man 🎉
If I get in, everything will go down so I’m gonna stay out right now…
Your welcome 🙂
a "codex" is literally just a book
with binding
as opposed to a more primitive technology such as a scroll
And your point is??
Any recommend on a BC exchange? IMA noobie.
Thank you for these extremely helpful insights, Mark. It's very much appreciated!
You’re welcome Ralf, thanks for tuning in 🙏
???? How do you scan a QR code your watching on TH-cam 🤔🤷
Because a huge percentage of people now watch TH-cam on their TV’s. Which means their phones are free to scan.
But for the people that are watching on their phones, I also leave a link in the description & comment section.
Hope that helps!
Mark in this video you're talking about knowing when to sell.. in another video you talk about borrowing against your assets, Bitcoin/Crypto 🤯
Are you going to be covering both topics in your next live webinar presentation?👍🙏✝️🇺🇸🏄🏄🏄🏄🏄🏄🏄🏄
The above message was sent before your video was over and I think you just explained it ( different types of assets to buy in these different cycles ) and you will be explaining it in your webinar👍
makes sense
The explanation around collateral was not convincing enough for me. Collateral is not just debt - it is a particular kind debt that sets it apart from general debt. The most pristine form of collateral are US Treasuries and this is the crux of the problem - there aren't enough to keep the liquidity cycle rolling on.
Another BTC commercial.
Could you explain how?
@@1MarkMoss Sure, many of your shows start off with a landscape overview of where we are and how we got there but te shows usually end with a pitch that BTC is the best way to deal with a bad economic landscape. In effect you are running a show not unlike ITM trading where after depressing news Gold is always the answer. Credibility is lost when one pitches too hard an asset as it makes your show seem less like a educational enterprise to more like a salesman who wants you to buy something. I understand your passion for BTC but the force to witch you push it makes me perceive the show as just a lead up to the final sales pitch.
MOON SOON!!🌚
Good content, clearly explained. Seems to be aligned with a lot of other respected folks - "Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity!".
Raoul PAL calls this the everything code 😊
Big fan of the channel. Been watching for years. But you gotta give credit to Raoul Pal. You even used is GMI global liquidity index. Still a fan. Just give credit where credit is due.