ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 พ.ย. 2024
- The PAINTS-WAR is here. A new entrant Birla Opus wants to take share from Asian Paints, Berger, Nerolac and disturb the peaceful industry structure. A follow up video with an update on the launch of Birla Opus
Consolidation and cooperation in industry structure leads to improvement in pricing power and returns on capital. This leads to Good Companies becoming GREAT companies; both earnings and multiples go up and a lot of money is made...
But what happens when this reverses, when competition increases with the entry of a formidable player. What happens when GREAT becomes GOOD? this video analyses this effect in the Indian paints industry and how the industry will change over the next few years. This is part 2 of the video with another analysis coming in the next video...
Grasim is a formidable competitor which will disrupt the Indian Paints' peaceful existence over the next 5 years. The industry will be in turmoil before a new industry structure emerges.
Hi friends, I am Ajay Sharma. I have been an active investor and a serial entrepreneur living in Singapore. I am an alum of IIT (BHU) Varanasi and IIM Ahmedabad. I have worked in some of the leading global corporates and am passionate about startups.
To know more about me, watch - • Who am I? #AjayFY
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#paints #sensex #indiagrowth
As soon as you said supply side 11:27, i was wondering if this was the same thing mentioned in the capital returns book, and then immediately you referred to the same book, which solidified my thoughts!!! One of the few major pointers that seemed so obvious, yet nobody looks at it. Thanks, loved it. You have my absolute respect for reading this very underrated book.
People think most buyers of paints are regular home owners. But thats wrong. Most buyers of paints are builders - they don't care if quality of AP is higher than Birla, they just care about the cost
No most builders provide white putty. Colour is on customer
@SHALEENDAVE All paint makers make Putty too. Plus there is external paint
That's a good point.
But Asian paints can fulfill large demands but small suppliers fails
Top notch yet again.
However, sir would you like to pay any thought to Asian's demand prediction capabilities, can Birla's get to Asian's forecasting capabilities?
You are into fund management business that's fine . But if you would have selected the profession of teaching that would have also make you much more popular specially in the field of finance . Your convincing capability and clarity about the topic which you are discuss always is really remarkable. I eagerly wait for you videos. All videos have deep insights . Keep it up . I will request you to publish much frequent videos for us who loves to watch you .
I really wanna know in the paint industry which company has the best quality of paint??
Fantastic video. Only request if possible can be both english and hindi combined rather than only hindi. If possible.
Would like to meet you when you are in kolkatta. Pls inform if possible.
kamal ki jankari mili sir .
aapse sadar anurodh hai or naye sectors par bhi videos milenge jiska hum sabko besabri se intzaar hai
Hello Sir,
I am Atharva from IIM Kashipur. I searched for HHI index that you mentioned but didnt found any website which provided it directly. Do we have to individually calculate it as per the formula or is there anything I am missing.
Thanks in advance for the reply
You have to calculate on your own. Sum of square of marketshares
@@G2GAjaySharma Sure sir,
Thank you
Fabulous video, Thanks a lot. Would love to know your thoughts on a scenario where costs increase for a sustained period. Specifically, how would Grasim Industries, which has a much higher debt level compared to Asian Paints, manage in such a situation?
What about the potential from international market focus of Asian paints? Is that insignificant?
Excellent analysis, Sir. Additionally, it's worth noting that Asian Paints is expanding into the home decor market, which is significantly larger and more fragmented than the paint industry, with no major organized players currently dominating it. If Asian Paints can capture a substantial share in this sector, it could potentially lead to significant growth in their EPS and P/E ratios. I would appreciate your thoughts on this development.
It will take 10-12 years to build that segment to be equivalent to their current paint business. Additionally brand building in new segment will take more money and resources from current business.
The PE will go down.
Sir Birla ji main woh ability aur effort hai jo asian paints ke management ki brabri kar lenge
Hum ne Voda fon idia mein dekh liya turn around nahi kar pa rahe hain , dhaoutfull hai, shukriya
Very good analysis, would like to have conversation with you. Prof Tarun Dhingra
Prof Dhingra, please email at ajayfy.connects@gmail.com
Really good analysis , enlightening people ❤ Beautifully explained in a very simple way, your thoughts process analysis and educating people really needs lot of appreciation, we like your videos
Sir, what are your thoughts on paint companies hiking their prices?
Awesome episode 💗💗💗 My question is, if both biggies are looking & preparing for Export Market too (Blue Ocean Strategy)
How much period Birla will take to get decent ROCE ?
Such a nice analysis... But you are not mentioned about quality, in continuation of this Tug of war should quality be compromised?
Sir , how do you source data like share of voice , dealer network etc
Superb @ajayg2g .... Ajay Sir!
This is so much relatable to "Air conditioner Industry" as well...
Outside competition will going to kill Voltas, Bluestar as well....
I appreciate your views and ur videos. But can you also start speaking about companies or industries which according to you are in the good to gr8 phase.
Btw Asian paints rt now is a pretty decent buy for a 20% return. Even if it takes a year, doesn’t really hurt. That’s what everyone is chasing in mutual funds anyways.
@@dhirendrasingh7085But are there reasons for a 20% return?
Very beautiful and in depth analysis, pls make analysis video for HDFC bank and IDFC first bank too
Sir,
You are great analyst
Thank you for your free education.
Many many thank you sir. Please more video give on other industries.
How can we start paint manufacturing
Sir, Tata pigments paint already in market
Thank you sir for sharing ur insightful knowledge and doing such priceless analysis
Good one. I'm thinking about why Birla entered the paint industry and making this industry a red ocean. Can't they find any other low-competitive industry?
Asian paints entered the putty market that was dominated by Birla and aggressively expanded. These are adjacencies and hence companies play the game of who blinks first. Game theory at play. Mazaa aayega.
Brilliant analysis as always. One assumption you made is no drop in crude prices. If Crude prices fall, profits could improve.
So much fun to watch these..
Ajaybhai Superb...Please in similar study of Bajaj Finance VS Jio Financial ...Humble Request
Pvt sectors banks analysis
Great Sir. I belong from Jaipur and live in Vaishali Nagar. ❤
If quality of the paint is of prime importance then Dulux would dominate home painting, right?
Afaik its almost impossible to compete with Asian Paints at a distribution level.
Sir muje invest karna he kis me karu
You have great analysis and correct in all what you have said; except that photos of QR codes can be taken by employees and sent over WhatsApp and those photos can be scanned to redeem the contractor benefits. This could probably be a loophole.
I want to add a few more variables; raw material costs over the next 3 years, M&A, geopolitics, underestimating the volume growth of the sector.
1. Raw Material: I expect the cost of the main raw material to go down over the next 3 years because of shift to EVs and renewables; that may compensate for the margin that is impacted due to higher ad spends and discounts.
2. M&A: Can we see something similar to the Telecom sector over the next 10 years in the paint sector where the smaller companies will either die or be merged into 2-3 big players?
3. Geopolitics: This can impact in unimaginable ways which may be difficult to assess at this time.
4. Volume growth estimation: What if the volume growth of the sector beats expectations by a huge margin on upside because of Government policies regarding home for all? Could this be the reason why Birla entered the sector in the first place?
Hemant, very interesting questions.
1) RM cost. I can't predict that, but whatever happens to RM cost, IT IMPACTS ALL PLAYERS. What will matter is whether they want to pass it on or not? Till a new Marketshare STRUCTURE is established, you will see price wars and margin compression. This is about MARKETSHARES
2) M&A : this happens only when the industry goes through a very tough phase of POOR CASH FLOWS for a long period of time. That is a DIRE state of affairs. The industry is very profitable and high ROCE today. If we are talking about consolidation forced by PAIN, then there is a lot of trouble coming our way. That is not my base case today.
3) Geopolitics : No idea
4) Volume Growth : It has been 10-12% last many years. Possible that it goes up, that will be a positive surprise :-)
Will you also open a centre for autism in Delhi ❤
Very good information. Can you make similar kind videos for telecom industry?
Sir, camera angle is not helping. If you could give some thought on it
Very nicely explained Krishna ❤❤❤❤ We are Arjuns of investment
Great initiative (mangotown) sir. You are among the few successful people who really want to change the world for better.
Thank you Ajay sir, I gone through your website of mangotown, my humble request is to add ayurveda balaroga chikitsa department... It is much underated treatment but it makes big difference in child... My prayers for your initiatives... God bless you.....
Thank you for your wishes.
can you please email me at ajayfy.connects@gmail.com
sir plz bajajfinace Ki analysis krodo next year k liye
ajay bhai you are amazing
Sir pidilite industries pe video banaya sir
Sir i am a parent of special kid please open centre in east delhi or noida
Nestle pe v banaiye
It’s such an amazing session, absolute Masterclass. Returns on investing time on your videos is huge. Thanks a lot for sharing class knowledge 🙏🏼
Thank You Sir for the detailed analysis. Lot of new things learnt today.
Very nice Knowledge for common man understanding
Wow..thanks for the scuttlebutt information
Sir birla ko kya mileage fhir
What is scuttlebutt ?
Birla can't discount for long as shareholders will want to see great Roce. Further, the capex impact on the balance sheet of Birla is large. Asian is also doing capex for new plants, but many of their factories are already set up so better balance sheet. Asian is bound to remain positive cash flow as there is strong internal cash generation. Does Birla know how to innovate in this sector? What type of people culture does it have versus Asian for sustainable momentum in execution and continuous improvements. Lovely analysis, but somewhat pessimistic towards Asian Paints , but grabs the attention as pessimism can have a seductive appeal. 😊
Best video sirji👌
One thing you are missing, after knowing all this...Both companies are looking for business thro benifitting the sellers n intermediateries like contractors etc.....now someone should focus on customer the final buyer....i will look for my benifit n give my paint to the painter n not what he wants to apply....Customer, the final payer first
Such a wonderdul analysis sir. Learnt a lot from this vedio. Thank you
Great learning..Thanks a lot sir
Again Great insight sir I learned lots of things from your business analysis thank you very much sir❤❤🙏🙏🙏🙏
Hello Ajay sir .............great analysis.......... but not useful for investing ....bez AP 3 year return is 0 and next 3 years will be 0. sub ko pata hai ...grasim ko kya hoga......nobody knows
Ajay bhai please share PPT
Loved it, as always. Keep up the G2G work Ajay ji. :)
Very good information, God bless you uh🌷🌹💐
Thanks for enlighten us ❤
Again very insightful and great analysis ❤
Bhai you're awesome quite drunk but efforts you put in the video are recommending!!! Lot's of love from Maharashtra! ❤❤❤ I've been introduced to you by Vivek!
Beta wo Bhai nahi sir hai pahle unka academic aur work experience dekho phir comment likho.
तुत्छ मानव, ये 'sir' शब्द का प्रयोग बंद करो। ये अंग्रेज़ो का टाइटल है। *श्रीमान* बोलो और फिर कमेंट लिखो।
Super sir, thank you 🙏 ur my IIM.❤️
Really good analysis. Thanks!!
one more time... one of the best video..Grt going ajay sir
Superb Analysis 👌🏾🤩🔥
Invite more merger or closure of few small companies
Very interesting analysis sir......
Thanks for sharing amazing insights
Beautifully explained sir ....
Thank u
Mind-blowing Analysis.
SIR, I AM FROM HYDERABAD. MY BOTH CHILDREN ARE AUTISTIC. I WANT TO OPEN CENTRE. HOW TO CONTACT YOU SIR
Please email at ajayfy.connects@gmail.com
Excellent 🎉
As your channel name suggests, you are becoming Good --> Gr8
Thank you Sir...
birla pInts kerala markeing no ading compant 1 nodrying 2repainting noading beakround coplant
What about the data ? What it takes years for asian paints cannot be easily done by birla.
Excellant Analysis
In 3 yrs it will like HUL.growth low but pe high.
Lovely analysis sir
Berger Painter ko bahut pehle se de raha.... Isiliye mere area main kuch painter ye v kehete Berger ke alwa paint nahi karunga.
Pranam guruji ❤ like you very much
Can u share
Birla opus is the newly excellent paint producer than asian paints now in the market.
Thanks sir ji 😊❤
very nice vdo
Sir asian paint choro abhi kouncha stock me paisa lagaye
Nifty index me dal do 😂😂
VI got disruption from jio
Now birla doing the same to paints.
Thanks for 66 subs
Good sir ❤
Berger, Nerolac be like : Khaya Piya khuch nhi Glass toda 12 Aana.😂😂😂
wow
Beauty of Capitalism which will never be seen in socialism
Basant ji to kahte hai asian paint gira hai kyuki india me development nahi ho raha hai ,
Unko india alliance ki govt me development dikhegi, usse pehle nahi
कांग्रेसी है वो उनको रोड बनाने से प्रॉब्लम है, वंदे भारत से प्रोब है,
Maheshwariji is a Bias person
Birlas know about Indians a lot. Fool proof formula.
ismain duba baanane wale paisa kumayengee yaa nahi??
or they will do backward integration
Sahi soche
Akjo noble birla ke sath in 1995