Brilliant stars singles will take off once the build and battle stadiums dry up and packs aren’t $5 a piece. Look at the slyveon and umbreon tg alts, those will be $125-150 card once packs dry up
it works, what you need to consider is value correlates with relative pull rates. 151 has excellent pull rates so the top end of the set wont be super expensive, but adjusted for how many you can pull compared to harder or regular sets it will be right up there with the big boys. 151 and prismatic have crazy expected value per pack. biggest ones on the market today actually.
Just picked up a couple of twilight j masquerade boxes for $160 each. I definitely think this will be one of the best performing sets of S&V. It has the major chase with a good amount of cards behind it that will 2-3x in a year or 2
@@coopercollins1780 I agree, I just picked up 4 more BB @ $175.00. A little pricey, but difficult to find in my area. I am expecting a reprint, which I hope the price drops, so I can pick up more.
This is all great info. I think the main thing that might be missing from the data would be the pull rates for the top cards. Then you could calculate the cost versus actual likelihood of pulling that value back out.
you sir are correct, and another driver that is at play here is graded cards. the big value sets have big value graded cards and a lot of them. demand demand demand 😀
The max value of top x or total value of the set plays directly into the BB price. However, growth is relative, especially when buying in at this point in time. I think you may have more chance for LO or CR to double then for ES to double. Not long long term perhaps, but more people can afford those then ES. ES has reached a level that makes it a lot less liquid to sell. The other problem with using this metric on SV is that you don't know yet what the valuation will be ending up to be, we are lacking maturity. As with all these investment videos, it also depends on what your selling goal is. - Brag rights in 20 years, buy ES. - Short term, likely BS since it has not sold out yet in PC. - 2-3x profit, maybe CR, LO? That's my 2-cents.
I generally agree with most of what you said. There's 2 other factors that make it a bit more difficult to know what to invest in. First is scarcity. Something like Rebel Clash is higher in price than it would normally be because no one has a box of it. The second is potential growth. We know that Evolving Skies will be the most expensive, but in terms of percentage growth, it's a lot harder for Evolving Skies to go up from 1300 to 2600 than it is for Battle Styles to go from 150 to 300
@@michaelsraj4783 but do you think it would be easier to sell 10 boxes of battle styles when the time comes or 1 evo skies? If you dont need the liquidity then for sure, but for me I like to be able to liquidate big money relatively quick if need be
Silver Tempest is absolutely slept on... theres hundreds of packs at my local fleet farm for 3.99. i cant believe it with all the hype these days. its a $10 pack set but will take time i guess... way more valuable than brilliant stars IMO.
great vids, lots of youtubers talked about complicated ways to correlate with BBs but depth really doesn't matter, LO is a great example. At one point, BS>LO is the dogma. LO is indeed the winner now and for the foreseeable future
wow never thought about top ten/3/5 compared to BB. Maybe you could add a column so we can see the exact value of the top 3/5/20 divided by the BB price?
Not a terrible idea. I have messed around with different sorts of calculations and tried to figure out some type of mark where things should be deemed buyable, but until I work it out properly I wouldn’t want to go too in depth. I’d like to go through maybe one more market cycle and get much stronger data.
every box will have value in a few years or more, the question is do you want to put your money into temporal or a different set? $140 a box now will be worth how much in 4 years, $250, $300, $400? - Netting $660 a case at $250 a box (minus fees/shipping costs/taxes) Or do you take that $840 and put it into something like evolving skies, and in the same 4 years time what do you think ES would be, $2500, $3000, $4000? - You'd have to spend another $500ish on top of your temporal forces budget to net $1100ish if it were only $2500 in 4 years, so in the worst case scenario you're about the same profit margins (assuming I'm accurate on both set values in 4 years) It would be easier selling a cheaper booster box down the road, but evolving skies is also a guaranteed sell no matter the cost. If evolving were to double up in 4 years it would blow out any gain temporal would do in the same time. If you don't have money for evolving skies what do you think the value of 151 or prismatic ETBs would be in 4 years? What about fusion strike/lost origin booster boxes? Bottom line - you're going to do well with any good set. I'm sticking to booster boxes, then ETBs for specialty sets. And pokemon center ETBs for any set
Gotta consider most of these sets aren’t being actively printed anymore, and prices haven’t settled. Let’s wait till May or June to get a slightly better idea of the market
@@eyobwalid2332 I mean all of these sets have had multiple reprints and sat for 100$ or less a box at times, no matter what happens Prismatic will end up at a high price because the set is absolutely stacked, look at crown zenith they did everything in their power to print that set into the ground and now that it is starting to dry up its rising rapidly because the set is stacked.
every set will go up in time so you'll do fine, it's just a matter of do you want to put money into known bad or less desirable sets vs a set that is easy to sell?
I also thought the Greninja artwork was bad, and then i fell victim to Venebian demand because I just bought one lmao Banger video, lots of good insight. Would love to see you compare SV era, BW, SM in the same way
I think we can't tell yet as you said and I would not write Temporal Forces of yet, all 3 legy dogs? Where my fellow Millenials at we need those in our collection! 😂 Love your videos but you said yourself we KNOW SWSH sets performance expectations alrdy but we don't know for SV yet and still you tell people to sell? I think you might be too far ahead this time, but I know what you are going to answer 😂 Anyways keep up the great work chief!
I mean, it’s already at a point where I can make those claims with 70-80% confidence. Very unlikely Paradox Rift, Obsidian, or Temporal come out of nowhere and compete with things like Surging at this point.
@PokeProfit my take on that with this market hype never seen before we might see no SV set underperforming because this market right now might be "the big boom back then" in the future, but maybe I'm just huffing that Hopium too much :'D
Profit, the celebi and mew only increased after fusion had its run. Is it possible they are not the cause of the fusion strike increase but the symptom and the same thing will happen when battle styles is out of the pokemon center and people FOMO
Maybe. I wasn’t saying that the increase in singles came from the box increasing, but simply that there is a correlation between box value and what hits are inside. Even a year ago when singles were much cheaper, it was still quite obvious what the top 3-4 sets were going to be. When BS sells out, even if it outtakes Astral Radiance, it’s very unlikely it would get into the conversation with sets like BSTARS and ST
One of the best vid I have seen that explains set value and how it equate to booster box price, nice job.
@@PrismaticRevolution you are one angry person, just don't watch his vids then. Your opinion is your opinion only, nothing else.
Brilliant stars singles will take off once the build and battle stadiums dry up and packs aren’t $5 a piece. Look at the slyveon and umbreon tg alts, those will be $125-150 card once packs dry up
Wow that made a lot of sense. Get rid of underperfomring and go all in the heavy sets. love that. thanks
Does this work with specialty sets cuz 151 and prismatic are 🔥 sets
it works, what you need to consider is value correlates with relative pull rates. 151 has excellent pull rates so the top end of the set wont be super expensive, but adjusted for how many you can pull compared to harder or regular sets it will be right up there with the big boys. 151 and prismatic have crazy expected value per pack. biggest ones on the market today actually.
Stay tuned for tomorrow’s video. I cooked some more numbers
Just picked up a couple of twilight j masquerade boxes for $160 each. I definitely think this will be one of the best performing sets of S&V. It has the major chase with a good amount of cards behind it that will 2-3x in a year or 2
@@coopercollins1780 I agree, I just picked up 4 more BB @ $175.00. A little pricey, but difficult to find in my area. I am expecting a reprint, which I hope the price drops, so I can pick up more.
I agree, I also invested in the jap version crimson haze. In Germany u can still get a booster box for 45€, while the jap greninja sitting at 250€.
I agree
This is all great info. I think the main thing that might be missing from the data would be the pull rates for the top cards. Then you could calculate the cost versus actual likelihood of pulling that value back out.
you sir are correct, and another driver that is at play here is graded cards. the big value sets have big value graded cards and a lot of them. demand demand demand 😀
The max value of top x or total value of the set plays directly into the BB price. However, growth is relative, especially when buying in at this point in time. I think you may have more chance for LO or CR to double then for ES to double. Not long long term perhaps, but more people can afford those then ES. ES has reached a level that makes it a lot less liquid to sell. The other problem with using this metric on SV is that you don't know yet what the valuation will be ending up to be, we are lacking maturity.
As with all these investment videos, it also depends on what your selling goal is.
- Brag rights in 20 years, buy ES.
- Short term, likely BS since it has not sold out yet in PC.
- 2-3x profit, maybe CR, LO?
That's my 2-cents.
I generally agree with most of what you said. There's 2 other factors that make it a bit more difficult to know what to invest in. First is scarcity. Something like Rebel Clash is higher in price than it would normally be because no one has a box of it. The second is potential growth. We know that Evolving Skies will be the most expensive, but in terms of percentage growth, it's a lot harder for Evolving Skies to go up from 1300 to 2600 than it is for Battle Styles to go from 150 to 300
@@michaelsraj4783 but do you think it would be easier to sell 10 boxes of battle styles when the time comes or 1 evo skies? If you dont need the liquidity then for sure, but for me I like to be able to liquidate big money relatively quick if need be
I deff agree with this. I invested heavy into lost origin and silver tempest
Same!
hey im just a small collector but, what do u mean if you say heavy ?
@ heavy = a lot. like investing many dollars
@@Mosh-Pit-Manga yup
@ i know what heavy means :D like how much xD
Silver Tempest is absolutely slept on... theres hundreds of packs at my local fleet farm for 3.99. i cant believe it with all the hype these days. its a $10 pack set but will take time i guess... way more valuable than brilliant stars IMO.
great vids, lots of youtubers talked about complicated ways to correlate with BBs but depth really doesn't matter, LO is a great example. At one point, BS>LO is the dogma. LO is indeed the winner now and for the foreseeable future
wow never thought about top ten/3/5 compared to BB. Maybe you could add a column so we can see the exact value of the top 3/5/20 divided by the BB price?
Not a terrible idea.
I have messed around with different sorts of calculations and tried to figure out some type of mark where things should be deemed buyable, but until I work it out properly I wouldn’t want to go too in depth.
I’d like to go through maybe one more market cycle and get much stronger data.
I'd be nice to have some percentages or some more info in the table
Percentages of what?
Ex. Top bb is 50% of top 10 cards. And this bb is 90% of top 10 cards. So we can see quickly what one is the best value based on this metric.
My LGS has Temporal Cases for $150 under current market, I think a cost basis of ~$140 per box is good but what’s your take?
@@sal3888 I like TEF at this price, I my pick up some more
every box will have value in a few years or more, the question is do you want to put your money into temporal or a different set?
$140 a box now will be worth how much in 4 years, $250, $300, $400? - Netting $660 a case at $250 a box (minus fees/shipping costs/taxes)
Or do you take that $840 and put it into something like evolving skies, and in the same 4 years time what do you think ES would be, $2500, $3000, $4000? - You'd have to spend another $500ish on top of your temporal forces budget to net $1100ish if it were only $2500 in 4 years, so in the worst case scenario you're about the same profit margins (assuming I'm accurate on both set values in 4 years)
It would be easier selling a cheaper booster box down the road, but evolving skies is also a guaranteed sell no matter the cost. If evolving were to double up in 4 years it would blow out any gain temporal would do in the same time.
If you don't have money for evolving skies what do you think the value of 151 or prismatic ETBs would be in 4 years? What about fusion strike/lost origin booster boxes?
Bottom line - you're going to do well with any good set.
I'm sticking to booster boxes, then ETBs for specialty sets. And pokemon center ETBs for any set
So prismatic clears every set on this list
Gotta consider most of these sets aren’t being actively printed anymore, and prices haven’t settled. Let’s wait till May or June to get a slightly better idea of the market
@ yeah but also a lot of these sets have seen massive reprints
@@eyobwalid2332 I mean all of these sets have had multiple reprints and sat for 100$ or less a box at times, no matter what happens Prismatic will end up at a high price because the set is absolutely stacked, look at crown zenith they did everything in their power to print that set into the ground and now that it is starting to dry up its rising rapidly because the set is stacked.
Hmmm good advice and thanks for the stats and info.
I think bad advice on getting rid of mid tier booster boxes. It's called long term for a reason!
Do you then, man.
every set will go up in time so you'll do fine, it's just a matter of do you want to put money into known bad or less desirable sets vs a set that is easy to sell?
I also thought the Greninja artwork was bad, and then i fell victim to Venebian demand because I just bought one lmao
Banger video, lots of good insight. Would love to see you compare SV era, BW, SM in the same way
Just my opinion but I feel that Misty's Starmie will be one of the best trainer cards of this era. Should be more but curious to see where it goes.
this was super helpful, can you do scarlet and violet too?
Maybe tomorrow I’ll run it back for SV era
I think we can't tell yet as you said and I would not write Temporal Forces of yet, all 3 legy dogs? Where my fellow Millenials at we need those in our collection! 😂 Love your videos but you said yourself we KNOW SWSH sets performance expectations alrdy but we don't know for SV yet and still you tell people to sell? I think you might be too far ahead this time, but I know what you are going to answer 😂
Anyways keep up the great work chief!
I mean, it’s already at a point where I can make those claims with 70-80% confidence.
Very unlikely Paradox Rift, Obsidian, or Temporal come out of nowhere and compete with things like Surging at this point.
@PokeProfit my take on that with this market hype never seen before we might see no SV set underperforming because this market right now might be "the big boom back then" in the future, but maybe I'm just huffing that Hopium too much :'D
*except shrouded fumbles ofc
Excellent video!
good video buddy!
by the way, crown zenith should be on this list, don't care if it's not a booster box
That would be comparing apples to oranges since he’s talking about booster boxes.
@@Matts_Ancient_Coins read above^ I don't care it's not a booster box
@@jasone42683who the fuck are you? 😂 no one gives a fuck
Tempearl
Profit, the celebi and mew only increased after fusion had its run. Is it possible they are not the cause of the fusion strike increase but the symptom and the same thing will happen when battle styles is out of the pokemon center and people FOMO
Maybe.
I wasn’t saying that the increase in singles came from the box increasing, but simply that there is a correlation between box value and what hits are inside.
Even a year ago when singles were much cheaper, it was still quite obvious what the top 3-4 sets were going to be. When BS sells out, even if it outtakes Astral Radiance, it’s very unlikely it would get into the conversation with sets like BSTARS and ST
doesnt matter cause or effect, hes showing the correlation here