Where Did All The Ships Off Los Angeles Go?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 ส.ค. 2024
- Where Did All The Ships Off Los Angeles Go?
What's Going on With Shipping?
September 6, 2022
In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University and former merchant mariner - discusses the reduction of ship calls at the Port of Los Angeles and what does this mean for flow of cargo and goods to the United States and their associated freight rates.
#supplychain #container #losangeles
00:00 Introduction & Port of LA Today
7:24 Why the Change
11:45 Where Did the Ships Go?
13:38 Freight Rates
Please Support The Channel:
TH-cam Super Thanks
/ wgowshipping
Twitter: @mercoglianos
Marine Traffic
www.marinetraffic.com
Port of Los Angeles: CARGO OPERATIONS DASHBOARD
www.portoflosangeles.org/busi...
Freightos Data
fbx.freightos.com/
Well. You missed a few things. I’m a retired Captain. PMA caused a lot of the problems because they didn’t want to pay longshoremen the higher rate to receive trucks 24/7 like all other ports in the USA. They were only processing trucks in the day shift. This created a bottleneck. APL Berth 300 LA could have been twice as big, the CEO canceled the project and got his golden parachute, because he cut $50 million from the budget. Now it will cost 2-4 times more to expand the terminal. In September of 2019 Maersk charged around $1700 for a container from China to the West Coast, in September of 2020 they charged $23,000 for the same container. Their cost did not go up that much. They made record profits. There are more factors, but I’m tired of texting on my phone.
Dan...I have covered all of this in videos over the past year.
One only needs to look at the automation at the Trapac terminal or that of the LBCT in Long Beach to see the difference in operations. But the biggest logjam has been the movement of containers out of the terminals.
th-cam.com/video/QzkPgMsSkQY/w-d-xo.html
Great info brother
Legally imo according to the Patriot Act, all ports can be seized and operated by the Office of Homeland Security, as no property within 100 miles of any coast or port can have foreign ownership. Patriot Act allow eminent domain seizure without appeal IMo.
Easiest to just say democratic policies are completely responsible for this mess.
@@johnnyleewalker9872 so 100 ships off the coat ofc California in September 2020 when republicans controlled the White House and now a few ships when democrats control the white house and congress. ?
I have hauled containers for 25 years.
I am currently leased with United motor freight out of Seattle.
I can attest to the shipping increase for a 40 ft can.
2019, it was $4500.
Now, its roughly $20,000.
A lot of this cost has been demurage.
Up untill late last year, we had to pay this demurage before we could retrieve a container out of port.
Then we charged the customer.
Many containers had suspiciously taken trips around the world being dumped on docks in ports that were way out of the way for a typical voyage from China.
Some containers had been in transit for a year.
Then they finally land at terminal 18 in Seattle and they bury the container in a huge stack and refuse to dig the container out.
Terminal 5 was doing this when they finally reopened after starting a 9 year renovation project.
They would deny us the container even though we were there on the last free day.
Then they would charge demurage even though we tried to recieve.
They pushed us into a situation where we would charge outrageous standby fees as well.
I can't afford to sit in a terminal for 8 hours making nothing.
The whole system has become inefficient ON PURPOSE in the last two years.
Do you want to deny that?
Okay... whatever.
But I have been doing this for allmost half of my life.
I know when someone is sandbagging me on purpose.
It appears to me that SSA is at the center of all of this.
But it begins with the shipping lines.
By the way, most shipping lines ARE NOT owned by Chinese companies.
Hapag lloyd - Hamburg, Germany
Maersk - Copenhagen, Denmark
COSCO - Bejing, China
HMM - Seoul, South Korea
CMA CGM - Marseilles, France
MSC - Geneva, Switzerland
This is interesting information to me Sir… I’ve been in construction for the last 40 years…. Thank you
Very interesting post
It's all a manufactured global crisis. They want their great reset pretty bad.
Very outstanding post This people is what the evil people installed are doing to mankind. There is a devil, and he wants to be in control .That's what is happening and it goes against everything normal and good and true. Now they call good bad and bad good .we all better choose what's good for our eternity.
I believe it's done on purpose too, as well as other things going on in our state that is a total S#(% show.
CA needs to be held accountable for all those billions of dollars of items lost. It is directly CA's fault. All of the thefts of those trains that sat for years, every package you ordered from AliExpress and Wish that never arrived, every single one. The CA government must pay, out of their own pockets, for.
I ordered many many things from wish app that never came. Haha over a hundred
Hahah. You just said the government must pay out of their own pockets.
Do you know why that is funny?
And the prices for goods and services is through the roof now. All planned to decimate us and make us broke and destitute. I am going to have to pay double for kitchen cabinets and wood flooring compared to two years ago. So ridiculous!
@@lenandov Because the government doesn't have it's own money?
@@lenandov He doesn't have a clue but the light will come on come tax time!
Several of Florida's ports reported an uptick in container traffic from ships avoiding the California's port deadlock.
don't much about shipping myself but at least on paper I'd like to see California sidestepped as the destination for our goods in favor of places like FL, maybe Texas and other gulf points.
California is done on purpose, agenda
@@thecandyman9308 Already happening. It became cheaper and more efficient to ship stuff through the canal and offload in TX or FL. The ports on Eastern Canada are much busier as well, not so much on the west coast(BC) which is following California into insanity.
@@thecandyman9308 Corpus Christi Texas is building a higher bridge so bigger ships can get in. I was in the area November 2022 and that shipping port looks busy, including Portland TX , Galveston TX and elsewhere. There are also busy ports on the gulf coast of Florida.
@@joinjen3854 Good to hear!
Awesome real sourced information. The whole time the media blared on about how big the problem was and that LA/LB would never recover Oakland and Tacoma were barely open and could have absorbed all of the traffic. This was a problem by design from day one and the shipping companies are on record discussing their record breaking profits from strategically stalling vessels and milking the dwell fees.
I can say that the ports around Galveston are busier than I’ve ever seen. They were at capacity in 2010 and you’d notice 3 or 4 ships offshore waiting.
Now there are several dozen visible at any given time.
Always been that way at the ports in Houston
My ship the USS Texas (CGN-39) pulled into Galveston in the late fall of '80? It was "cold"...lol. We had also visited Fort Lauderdale, and St. Thomas and St. Croix. It was a shakedown after being in the yards after returning on Memorial Day from a 9 month cruise that ended w/ our participation in Operation Eagle Claw, the failed Iranian Hostage Rescue Attempt. We were in the Persian Gulf off of the coast of Iran to refuel the RH-53's that left the carrier Nimitz in the Med, and didn't return... Also, I was on her for the Gulf of Sidra Incident '81 when we were lead ship across Khadaffi's "Line of Death". My MI plate reads DLGN39, her original designation,
I am a crane operator at YTI. We are very slow at the moment but things are scheduled to pick up shortly. Our biggest issue right now is moving rail cans out to the Midwest. We’re having major issues getting rail cars from the railroads. We’ve had cans sitting for months. I just unloaded 300 rail cans last night. We’ve only loaded trains 4 or 5 times over the last couple weeks. We’re just moving the containers around the yard trying to make room for them all.
Thanks Pete...great info.
weren't the rail companies firing workers who were afraid of being injected with foreign substances? thought i read something about that
How much do you think the rail strike is going to affect the current problem?
@@daviddroescher I don’t think there will be a strike.
@@dumbcat I don’t know. But there was talk about doing that to us and that’s a hill I was willing to die on. No one is injecting me with anything against my will.
I really appreciate the report. Im sitting on shipments from Malaysia to LA because the prices are so high. Im praying for some relief but as you say, the companies have had a good thing they are refusing to let go of. I have other weekly airfreight shipments and the prices are still through the roof which continues to wreck our business. My sea shipment has to move so im watching prices constantly. Thank you!
@@midtownmariner5250 Its both or neither, depending who you talk to. In other words, EXCUSES.
When things got backed up on the West Coast they routed the ships to ports on the East Coast. Last week there were 31 ships sitting off of Savannah. When the new port is finished the whole equation of where to route ships coming into the US is going to change.
Too expensive. The use of the Panama canal is a big cost. The extra fuel cost to and from ports in the gulf are too high to be practical.
@@pain_weaver You need to read Dan Hall's response. West coast charges per container are up 10 fold! The extra cost to come east is a no brainer.
It’s more than just being backed up. A buddy of mine ships for a huge company. Items have been diverted to gulf and east coast ports. Rail is also diverting as well. Most of his containers on rail are now going to Az. Processing is a lot faster. My neighbor is waiting for his Ford Maverick for 16 months. 6 months ago it got to a railroad yard in Riverside Ca. It still there…
@@pain_weaver Six months ago you couldn’t get stuff unloaded on the West Coast, cost isn’t an issue when the choice is paying the rate or not having product.
You mean like how Cali has done with the Rail system they have yet to finish. Think it has something like 10 miles. Look for who is getting all these kick backs for the projects and than wonder why they are never getting finished and just being a continue money sink?
Great overview of the current situation.Helps us common folk understand the big picture.
As an OSINT enthusiast and investor, this kind of supply chain data is truly appreciated.
An excellent blend of raw data and interpretation. Enough data so that many might draw their own conclusions and enough interpretation so that the uninitiated can begin to understand the factors at work in this very complex issue.
Here in the Midwest I've noticed a very significant uptick in the amount of shipping containers being transported via semi's on the interstate near us, as well as via railway, have lived where we are for twenty years now and the increase is mind blowing
My company makes containers refrigerated sold 30 on average before virus now 300 this year some more than that.
Same for the Houston area in Texas. There's definitely more containers being trucked on I45 from Houston.
I’m in Missouri and last year in my rural area we’d see three or four trains a day (including overnight), now they run CONSTANTLY overnight and every couple hours daytime. Maybe two days a week (never the same ones) no trains at all.. it’s bizarre. The tracks a a couple hundred yards behind my house.
@@69ztang you blamed Biden for supply chain issues and high gas prices -- he must get credit now then....... 😃
I live in central Maine and for the last 6 months or so, every morning on my way to work I pass a Dodge Ram with a swan neck trailer hauling a shipping container. Coming down the road it looks like the truck has no business hauling something that big, but someone's doing it 🤷♂️. By the way, its the same truck i see every time.
The ships went to ports willing to unload them. Not expecting many to use L.A. in the future.
Just came across your page! The information you shared in this video is Fascinating! Straight forward, easy to understand, especially for those of us who have no knowledge of the shipping industry! Thank you!
Very welcome.
I was recently in VA Beach for the first time and I was surprised how many container ships I saw. Again, it was my first time in the area so I can't tell you if it was more than normal but I saw over a dozen I'd guess, just chatting with people fishin' on the pier for a while. Seemed like a lot to me. The Navy was fairly busy around the Chesapeake Bay too. I hope to move up there soon, I liked it a lot.
This explains why there's still a lot of truck traffic along I45 from Houston TX. I knew it would pick up because of the back log of California ports. But once it cleared I was surprised it's still busy.
1st time watching, I'm impressed your content is well studied and delivery of information in layman's terms is much appreciated. Currently with so many videos about shortages in stores this information can give a person a bit of insight as to what the future may hold. Thank you kindly, Sincerely, Sandra
Thank you Sandra. I appreciate the comment.
great update , thank you for a detailed look into the world of shipping :)
Great video. Explains the long trains I’ve seen on my cross country road trip this year.
I fly off the coast of Savannah a lot. Hundreds of ships parked miles offshore waiting their turn to unload.
This is my first video of yours, and what a great introduction! TH-cam comes through once again with the high quality niche content :D
Wow, thank you!
I don't see lower prices to get rid of old merchandise
Highly informative report. Super! Thank you!
Love seeing those maps. Great detail and insight.
I used to drive Semi trucks to the docks in the south and east coast. I hated dealing with the longshoreman. It cost me time and money waiting on them to either load or unload me. I know they make good money but they don’t care if you get loaded or not. You have to follow their orders to the “T” or you just sit. It is my prayer they get better. Layer
Bunch of fuc*ing thieves !!!!!!!!!!!!! all of them........1700 to 23,000 for SAME container !!!!!!!!! and that"s not the Longshoremen who are all union extortionists as well...
Gee Wallie Thanks for hating us Longshoreman...👀 alot of us work hard to ensure proper shipping operations in a timely fashion with hopes of returning home to our families .... Next time your grocery shopping think about us longshoreman you proclaimed not to your liking and ask yourself how those eggs made it on the sheves for your morning breakfast.....👀
@@oliviaprater2118 Glad your toting the union flag. During covid was a disgrace with these ports(not in Europe). Not to say your work isn't appreciated along with the truckers. BTW my eggs are grown locally...
@@oliviaprater2118 I hear that automation is eating up jobs slowly and in the future the port workers would only be a small force. Also the terminals are slowly getting rid of roto so even less workers. Thoughts?
@@tricallyourmama One would argue that dildo automation has replaced men and will cause distiction amongst the Human race...👀
Sal, very interesting video. I’m just n the trucking business. Most of the spot market trucking companies are crying 😢 that the big/high rates have dropped. They say “Rate Crash”. I see the rates just returning to normal. The truck freight rates are actually higher then pre-COVID rates.
Thanks for the update, very timely.
This channel has interesting content AND alot of interesting comments. Very insightful and professional material posted. Subbed
Nice job Sal. I subscribed. Keep us posted in a couple months - I'm wondering if the ship wait times indicate a dropoff in consumer demand (ie. recession) vs. port switching. Also great analysis of freight rates. They are still high....
Thanks for the sub and the nice words. I appreciate it!
Manufactured scarcity
Carrying a lot of last years purchases, thus reducing this years purchases to offset the inventory due to delayed unloading/receiving by customers/buyers. It will probably take another year for it level back out as the cycle trys to resume to pre-2021 levels, but the strength of the economy will determine the to what % of the 2020 it will return to. I appreciate the information; not something I would have been able to assemble and report on...thank you!!!
Great update. Get well soon!
Nice explanation of graphs and actual conditions.
I drove from Atlanta to Savannah in early June. There came a point where the highway was dominated by trucks hauling containers. And about that same point either side of the highway was a string of projects breaking ground on massive warehouse space.
Every business person in Savannah I talked to had their own story of how dominating the change is in the region.
To my eye, it was coordinated and efficient. All appearances were that they were leveling up without crushing the local culture.
At this point in the story everyone has decided to load up on the wrong kind of "space"?
The Fed has many tricks to harm inflation and zero to reverse deflation!
They are expanding the Berth's as well. In july I had project Cargo on an MSC vessel that had to park outside of Savannah for a month before Berthing, but a time sensitive containers a month later that was not delayed at all. But if you look at marine traffic , there are at least 30-40 vessels parked outside Savannah. It's been that way for a few months. I was told because they are doubling the port size which includes Berth Construction.
The highways coming in and out of Port of Long Beach and Los Angeles are packed with trucks as well.
One of my drivers is making a killing running containers out of Savannah. He's on his way to Arkansas with one from there right now. He used to do a lot out of LA but his old truck blew up and the new one is not CARB compliant.
Back in the sixties the water front warehouses in Oakland, Ca. closed down because of the inventory taxes that were so heavy it was cheaper to load Semi's and take all the inventory to Nevada? Greed and corrupt politicians always pays especially in California? I bet those warehouses might still be closed unless they just rotted away???
I closed my little business in California in 1984 and left for Texas I never went back to California except to visit maybe 3 times... I moved to Dallas, Texas and 3 years later I opened another little business that is still open today? Try that in California Ha, Ha, Ha?
Mexico has built a new Panama Canal connecting ship cargo on Pacific Port with railraod to Atlantic Port in Southern Mexico. This will provide Mexico and shipping options for moving from East and West Coast of U.S.A and Mexico at cheaper and faster routes.
Yep! The second shipping canal built by China 🇨🇳 you are 109% correct!
The USA is currently under Federal Law -
Great info. Thanks, Sal.
GREAT INFORMATION!
Thanks for your EFFORT.
FYI on Marine traffic you can use the top icon on the left to filter out all the vessels you don't want on the map. Makes for a cleaner looking chart.
Another good lesson in global shipping and economics Sal.
We need to see if other nearby ports outside CA are busier, i thought because of the backlog issues and im sure CA regulations and fuel prices, other ports look far more appealing from a business standpoint
Good info... explains alot about why we are having such long turn around times.
Great information as always.
There are lot of issues with the whole port system. Most of the trucks nation wide all not California approved. The port terminals are old to small and not effecient. From the driver side it's not worth the time so companies will pay by the hour to get entry level drivers to work. A customer wants a container brought to his dock so he has the driver take back an empty container back to the terminal then the driver may wait several hours in line to be told, (1) we're not taking that type of container today since we have no room or (2) the loaded container is buried in a stack too deep and the driver wi) have to come back so he is sent back out to the street. Sometimes customers are waiting for months because their freight is in a container that is in the bottom of a stack. And as containers come off that stack more containers get put back on it. Add to the customers misery he has no product to sell and he is charged daily storage fee for no fault of his own. Supply chain issues that we all pay for!
California has absolutely no right to control consumer across state line by blocking trucks into the state
The federal government is brain dead to allow that to happen
Yup the new California law on truckers is going to kill the ports.
Yea trucking is crazy. Lots of brokers double brokering
@@philipgard6762 Good, that means LESS imports from Asia which may galvanize companies to manufacture in the USA!
#2 is bullshit . Transtainers will move containers to dig out your container. That is their job.
Cali emission restrictions on diesel trucks, 60% of the trucks in the US can’t enter Cali, and many drivers don’t want to go there either. There moving to other ports, good for them.
Exactly. That's a major issue but the MSM refuse to report on such things because it goes against the liberal mantra - "no critism of leftist environmental policies".
Source?
@@dosmastrify Jan 1, 2023 class 7&8 truck ban California...it's easy to find...
60% where did you get that number from?
I live in California and the people voting for this are the ones that will be paying for them. It makes me laugh at the thought of the stupidity
Thanks Sal. I hope you feel better soon 😀
I hope so too
Great video. Thanks.
Global Dream II was slated to carry 9,000 passengers and was built by German-Hong Kong shipbuilding firm MV Werften to the tune of nearly $1.4 billion, may become world’s largest cruise liner scrapped before it ever had the chance to take its maiden voyage.
WOW
Y'all MISSED IT
He said shippers creating artificial shortages to keep shipping rates up to Covid highs (800%)
You are exactly right these people are idiots
Shippers have been at least half the problem all along
Fascinating valuable information!
Good stuff. I learned a lot. Thank you
Lot of ships have been diverting as well a lot of the smaller vessels that enter the port of LA Long Beach are diverting toward San Diego and Port Hueneme the two brake bulk ports that sit on each end of LA county
Great video.
Comment about the chart for container ships waiting at the port or away from the port:
Since there is an increase in the size of the ships, it would be better to show the number of containers and not the number of ships.
Good point!
@@wgowshipping Maybe a good point but number of ships is my preference
Thanks for bringing awareness.
Finally a Chanel I can use. I'm a container truck driver. I own my own truck you sir are as of this moment the most important you tube chanell on my list. Congrats and thank you
Speaking of strikes, rail workers are done with the final cool off period on 9-16, it is possible they could strike at that time. Unions most effected are the engineer and conductors' unions
They went to other ports. We have seen a lot of containers get rebooked through Seattle and Vancouver that were originally booked for LA
Very helpful information! Get well.
Good information. Thank you
I cut way back on my Amazon orders, that's why!
That explains everything!
you also see a shift away from California due to the regulations and constraints on truckers . California has cut its on throat with their excessive regulations on trucking companies .
You mean corruption and deliberate restriction of supply (monopoly prices).
A huge factor will be all the deadlines that were missed during the slowdown/backup which would have cost firms way more than the higher fees. One bitten twice shy
Thanks for sharing. Very informative.
Glad it was helpful!
Very unique channel. For investors trying to understand the macro environment. Thanks friend. Thumbs up and I did subscribe.
Thanks!
Just found your channel and subbed. I am always interested in logistics. Watching from Cebu City, Philippines which has one of the largest ship freight terminals in the Philippines. Mostly single-axle trucks hauling containers and little axle weighing or road weigh scales here.
Thanks!
Do they have 40 foot trailers, or just 20 foot container frames? I'm guessing the whole country wouldn't limit itself to small containers but I also don't know
Statistics, huh? Maybe with tracking 🛩🛫? Check out Monkey Werx
@@RRodriguez1904 I have watched him. He seems well versed on air but some of his analysis on ships are not exactly accurate.
Excellent overview and explanation. I appreciate the pointers to actual information sites so we can look for ourselves. It is good to see the movement out of CA ports to others. Thankfully we have these options, in spite of the doomsday stories we were reading a year ago in the press. Fear sells, apparently.
Fear sells in the media?
I’m shocked! ❤️
Appreciate all the info Sal. Do other principal US ports operate a similar operations dashboard like LA? I tried looking up something similar for Norfolk, however wasn't able to find anything. Thanks again.
With all the news in the past month better yet just the past week, I think episode 81 was excellent. It also helps to have comments from subscribers. I guess some of them should really appreciate the content since it is free for most of us.
I found it interesting that the container stats for LA only included empty containers leaving on ship, and loaded containers leaving on truck or occasionally rail. I guess we don't have enough export products any more to even be worth making a graph about.
As for freight rates bottoming, remember two years of inflation that have occurred for various reasons other than just freight rates increasing. Realistically the rates will at most settle to something about twice the $1344, just to account for inflation. It may settle higher than that, since as you mention, the freight carriers don't want to give up on high rates.
Supposedly the freight companies had no desire to wait for full containers and sailed back to China empty.
I bought a one off or 1 trip container near the Antioch shipyard in N CA for about 2500 10years ago. Still looks like new and stores my wife's junk.
@@Zetharion1 I think it was slightly different. The freight companies and China shippers didn't want to wait for full containers arriving in China to be unloaded so that they could be recycled as empties. Thus the shipping companies only loaded empties outbound, and left the full containers sitting on the dock, where they probably still are.
Overall the result is basically the same.
Three years ago shipping a container from Long Beach to Louisiana cost me $1750ish. Now it’s $3400.
@@blackhawk7r221 What does insurance add to that?
This is awesome. I’m a port driver
Excellent work
Great Show..... Tim
Well analyzed and explained. Should be working for the department of transportation. Excellent PR. If only the news would get stories that were this analytical and this technical then they wouldn't be looked at as speculative news
Not qualified for dept of trans. He is caucasian - male - probably straight - and actually provides useful information
@@philipbrit13 This also disqualifies him from being at a major news corp... especially that useful info part
@@philipbrit13 scathingly true!
A RR can be slower, but the amount of freight that can be moved is tremendous. That cannot be analyzed until the individual cars have reached intermodal trucking rail yards such as Selkirk, Mechanicville, Or Jacksonville FL on the east coast for example. And similar destinations throughout the greater 48. Then from there to LTL freight carriers such as Roadway/Yellow, R&L etc. And then whole truckload carriers. My mind is drawing a Blank, so no disrespect to ABF etc. There's one LTL freight carrier that has done a complete 180 since 2000. Old Dominion. A complete trainwreck in 2000. Since then however, they have really rebuilt themselves on reducing shipping damaged freight. Reducing lost freight. Dock theft. In addition to that they also slowly looked at missed LTL freight pick ups by themselves as well as other carriers. So, from point of shipping the freight is inspected to ensure that the freight starting point; the shipper, the freight is damaged free. Next the freight is loaded in such a way to limit any transfer damage. Any shipper to terminal damage. This is through better use of freight lock technology. And when possible, having a trailer with similar sized freight. This is difficult do to the nature of pedal routes. Larger shippers have been trained in loading the trailers for drop and hook pick ups. From there a quality over quantity trailer strip, breakdown, staging and outbound trailer loading process. Yes, time is money, however clean undamaged freight delivery is also money. More money according to Old Dominion Freight Lines. Reducing the number of times freight is handled decreases the opportunity for freight to be lost or damaged in the first place. And finally pay and benefits. A better paid employee is a better trained employee. A better paid employee looks at their source of and amount of their paycheck. Which decreases motivation to steal. Or to use damaged freight. Add in a high customer service attitude and you get drivers from other carriers who take notice. And they talk. So, I encourage all carriers to copy them. Anyway I know companies like New Penn do these things as well. One other thing. The number one thing that destroyed union carriers was the casual list. This destroyed many drivers caring for the companies or the freight. Sorry guys. Fact. Also reducing pay and benefits for future employees while fattening up older employees also played a major role. Once the complete circle is made via Railroads you have a better way to analyze. Just my thoughts. I do appreciate you explaining the 3rd quarter freight being moved up to the first quarter. That helped explain some things.
Interesting post. What is a "casual list"?
@@olliefoxx7165 A casual list is when employees who have not worked more than a certain amount of days in a quarter are paid less than what the prevailing wage is. Moreover, if an employee works more than a certain amount of time, then the company can hire full time anyone who is on the list. Meaning that the actual person who worked the required hours might not be hired. The list is made up from union members who work from one closed shop to another. Making it nearly impossible to get hired full time. Now, union Hazardous materials drivers such as gasoline transport/propane transport operators do not normally have to deal with this. Mainly because it's dangerous. So, full time tanker drivers help protect the public from spills and horrific fires.
Awesome information
thanks for good information...
Nice video Sal, but you forgot one of the other biggest factors which is inflation burst. If you look at retail many of the larger players have stated that they have over invested in inventory, and that's also a major reduction in purchasing volume (which leads to reductions in cargo shipped). Further, remember the order book should be starting to come on line in the next quarter or two... With that being said, if there is a labor disruption (either in rail or port operations), this will cripple the vessel costs already falling. Right now, my best guesses are putting us somewhere around a $2500/F rate from CBP to USWC within 6-12 months at the current time... That leveling will stabilize the market due to higher inflationary concerns. I believe this will cause one more round of M&A by the carriers trying to cope with the downsized volumes and increased operating expenses.
But hey, that's just my 2¢
James. I think you are making an excellent point. I did mention the recession but I should have specified the issue of inflation.
True! Multiple retailers have announced that their warehouses where full because people have spent their "stimulus" funds and gas inflation is beating them up. So retailers are cutting prices and orders for new product until sales improve.
Overproduction & overstocking inventory is a normal part of the 7-8 year business cycle, which causes recessions. It’s So compounded by the market interventions of the communist Biden regime that we’re seriously looking at depression in the next quarter. Or if they manage to pull up and score a technical growth quarter, we’ll have the extended stagflation of the Carter & 0bomber administrations.
Bad for business growth and worse for Americans any rate…
@@michealnelsonauthor You poli-econ shills are the funniest. Thanks for the laugh !
Again, another election with huge consequences.With Trump, no investigation. With Desantis, folks going to jail. 2000 Mules started the first round of convictions (that's right) in progress as we speak. Your thesis above is a formula resulting from closed pipeline valves.
This reminds me of 1983 while working in the gulf oil industry. When I got to the gulf in 1982 the pipe yards were stacked 😳 30 to 40 ft high. Just before I was laid off in 1983 I noticed the pipe yards were empty. This looks somewhat similar. Go figure.
Do you remember hurricane Alesha in 83? It was a wavey day in the gulf. Biggest swells I ever seen and I'm from Alaska.
Great channel and very interesting. I used to be CFO of the biggest independent shipping agency in Europe and this channel would have been very useful and informative
I’m always working at TraPac but it’s interesting NYK has been idle quite a bit during the last year or two. Room for 3 vessels there.
Interesting channel! Subbed
Thanks!
The data seems to show that everything is getting better compared to last year, however my vendors seem to have less inventory than ever over the past month or so..
The data , itself is lie...
guess your data is wrong because getting better means more product not less
We’re in a recession. Demand for goods has plummeted. Inventories at large retailers are at record highs. Hence lower shipping traffic.
Exactly ! the news media always lies whatever you see on TV is backwards of what is reality. The biggest lie right now truck drivers shortage and the supply chain crisis. We have an abundance of drivers that’s why dry van rates are so dogshit
Wow, pretty spot on. Good job, you got a new subscriber, crane operator seattle washington
I work for the railroad, and things have been a little slow pertaining to stack trains. Also, IMF is having worker shortages for obvious reasons. It's beyond time to strike. The carrier's are making record profits, however.
I hear you, but; supply chain will crash ******
This is sinking nail head below wood -
"They" will rebuild the financial system.
Food and personal supplies - what you have is all you'll have.
Live in country all on your own......
Or
Live in city - you WILL DO as "they" say
Becoming a 3rd world country, once we lose national backed currency status.
Nice Big hammer there pal.
Thanks
@@lts30000 If we went on strike, it would last 5 minutes because of public outcry. The shareholder's drive everything. Trust me, the proof is in every notice they send us. I'm an employee and a shareholder. A small shareholder.
@@railroadtrash09 did not "let's go Brandon" not allow u folks from striking the last 3 times.
But not now!!!!! Why?
This crash will be long term. = just like a 3rd world country..
Do you realize All the implications of the GSM - pole rotation + new green deal (the death of us)
Also fed res made bit of coin
Containers sat off shore for at least 4 months in 2021. So stores now have containers of goods for last Christmas
Outstanding video.
Thanks Kevin.
You're great to do this
I have a noob question, who benefits most from the ports being opened or closed in la longbeach and how do we fix it?
Newsom is behind a lot of the supply chain crisis. AB5 took 70,000 independent truckers off the road. Also, new emission standards for trucks built before 2010 off the road, so less trucks to move for the ports and drayage.
He just said that there isn’t a que of ships lined up in the harbors. Covid is the main reason for supply chain issues. That is not even debatable. So, while AB5 didn’t help supply chain issues and the truck driver shortage, it’s not responsible for any current issues. Also, rail moves a lot of cargo to other states and there are not enough trains to keep up with the volume. So, California law wouldn’t impact out of state truckers. While AB5 had good intentions I feel it should be repealed. I do a lot of 1099 work in accounting as an independent consultant.
@@HockeyVictory66 covid is not. It's policies. And you're a liar
U don't know what it talking about. The truckers that r not operating legally should be off the road!!! There are plenty of companies to haul cans all day everyday!!! The dirt bags that wanna skirt the system and get welfare and food stamps and medical should be thrown in jail let alone thrown out of the ports!
@@superoffended6737 You must be one of the pro union people. Sure you're not Lorena Gonzales (author of AB5) pretending to be someone else with the screen name of "Super Offended"?
@@HockeyVictory66 Brett, that's just not true. I live in the Bay Area. Elizabeth Stump's comments are correct. Newsom's regulations have priced out independent trucking in CA. AB5 is government overreach.
Thank you for this pertinent information, will in Florida
Thanks Will!
Thank you!
Great analytics and observations, Sal. Thanks! In a somewhat related matter, look at what has happened at BBBY (CFO recently committed suicide). If you look under the hood, they reported this past summer that they were awash in a huge inventory overstock - as in hundreds of millions of $'s worth - that was and still is creating a huge drag on earnings. What's more, they way overpaid for this garbage. Like lots of other retailers they panicked in 2021 and hugely increased merchandise orders like crazy as Biden was sending out stimi checks like crazy. They way overpaid the shippers to ensure deliveries, etc. In other words, they burned cash like there was no tomorrow. Fast forward to now - they find out consumers are pulling in their horns somewhat - still spending but not so much on all this garbage that BBBY has - how many different bed skirts or vegetable slicers or toilet seat cozies do we need, right, so it's sitting in warehouses and they're closing stores and their executives are jumping out windows. A lot of that inventory will end up in TJ Max and other discount/Dollar type stores and, guess what, BBBY will take huge write-offs....further hitting earnings. Also, bottom line, they and others like them are being much more cautious in their procurement departments.
The CFO did a pump and dump of stocks and was busted and he didn't jump he "fell".😉
And I can remember when "stuff" was not all cheap ish from china...good ol days.
BBBY is valued at 500m~ but owns Buy Buy Baby that is valued at over 1.5B. They are not going bankrupt any time soon. The CFO was part of the old regime C-Suite members destroying the company. Keep getting your info from CNBC and doing 0 actual research.
@@bb.3844 Actually, my recap came directly from the company's last earnings report conference call - they laid it all out - including the imaginary valuation on BBBaby. Keep getting your information from your proctologist.
TJX has all that on lock. It's impressive that BBandB and places like Kohl's still exist.
BBBY is bankrupt. $4B in debt vs $600M market cap. and getting worse. The next wave will be an avalanche of shareholder suits. No chance they survive. Good riddance to that woke virtue signaling garbage company
Funny how the freight rates skyrocketed Jan 20, 2021 after being such a flat line for years, only to go up when Brandon started signing all those EOs on day one.
Which EO, specifically? They are all published on Whitehouse.gov
Very interesting, thanks!
Glad you liked it!
Thank you, for the Facts instead of the Scare Tactical video.
Absolutely appreciate this fact-based info.
Container traffic in the south east US has only increased since 2020. It was already busy. I travel around SC and encounter heavy tractor trailer traffic on all the major highways. I26 in and out of Charleston SC proves it. Perhaps the ships all went east?
Many have shifted east, to Houston, Savannah and NY/NJ.
Thanks, is there anything detectable metric for on-shoring manufacturing yet? It’s pretty clear from your analysis we have massive freight imports and any relief on the west coast is due to labor disruption concerns and changing delivery ports. Is there a meaningful way of classifying imported freight to see what im hearing about de-globalization looks like?
The problem is that even when freight rates were sky high, the overall cost to import was still cheaper in many sectors than to on shore. Therr has to be incentives to get this done.
The problem is that onshoring will take many decades. When we offshored those manufacturing jobs we also offshored a lot of equipment that was accumulated over the course of a few generations. Although some of that equipment can be reclaimed anything that went to China will never leave their shores unless its scrapped and sold as refined junk metal. Companies like Mazak and Haas could crank out machines full bore for probably two decades and still not offset what we lost at an exponentially greater cost. Sure, those old LeBlondes, Bridgeports and Cincinnati machines from WWII are old and tired but they still hold tolerances good enough for anything short of turbine work and even at that sometimes you can pull it off with a skilled machinist that knows his machine.
@@wgowshipping the cost of sending debt dollars to a nation that doesn't reciprocate in trade is more expensive but the bean counters in the offices haven't quite figured that out yet.
You are welcome Sal.
Wow! What a good channel
Some of this may also be do to California shooting it self in the foot with zealous regulations regarding truck traffic. They require new trucks to enter the terminal. They are doing away with contract drivers. Fuel prices are high in Ca. So this makes moving containers in to and out of long beach more expensive with a much smaller pool of trucks available. Not to mention they likely really pissed drivers off who couldn't get loaded or unloaded in a reasonable time leading to drivers not being willing to come back and deal with the California hassle.
Liberal genius in full effect out there, poisoned the whole state.
Yes, high level view is that many east coast ports/states/cities are balancing current prices/inflows with future investments in their infrastructure for long term growth. I see a point where the vast majority of shipping is spread evenly across the east coast and California only does 20-30% of what they used to. Also, I believe Oregon/Washington/BC are picking up some as well. Agree, California regulated themselves into a money pit.
@@matthewsocal2540 It may have been that way in the past... In today's environment... Not as much. There are two, possibly 3, contending states that have emerged over the last decade as "trend setters". Especially after the massive number of just plain awful stories coming out of Cali since the Great Recession.
You consider what it costs to rearrange a supply chain and it is not something the freight companies would do without really compelling reasons to do so. Once they finally committed to making that move, they wont change their mind soon. I dont think California has realised yet what they have done to themselves and by the time they do, it will be far too late to change the outcome. Big problems for the golden state, the exodus has not even begun.
@@matthewsocal2540 that statement would be hilarious, but I guess you're not joking...
Hey Sal!
I am a college student looking to do a mapping project about this story. I am planning on using ArcGIS story maps, and I'm hoping to understand more about some of the inefficiencies and shortcomings that were exposed and exacerbated by covid. Do you have any specific books or articles you recommend for a shipping container newbie!!!! thanks so much, anything is useful :)
Always remember to report the truth, never hold your peace.
Now I don't need to watch the news to find out if the global economy is is slowing down I'll just watch your channel and watch the supply chain, Import/ exports. really ,thank you this is very interesting I've never seen this on national news but this is Is fascinating way to monitor usa based economic reality . Imports / exports show us reality.
Thank you. Greetings from Iran.
This video was very interesting - thank you for doing this for free - you could easily put this behind a paywall etc
Free ?? Utube pays