WOW! Feels like I'm in a graduate meteorology course! Great lessons, fantastic graphics, and wonderful explanations of atmospheric vagaries that can make forecasting such a wild and wooly field. I believe you are the one who said, "Anything beyond four or five days is a guess." This video clearly explains WHY.
The numbered players helped me to understand what goes into what we get. Very cool. Thanks Bobby and EPAWA crew! No Mary Poppins activities today. I’d end up in Australia😂. Have an amazing day everyone!😁❤️
Bobby, thanks for the incredibly insightful, detailed analysis that describes the 6 pieces and how they have to interact. Thanks for sharing your gifts with us!!
Thanks Professor Bobby! I find this fascinating to learn. 6 "cogs" need to turn in sync is really something! Btw, I always felt breezy was more "refreshing, the air is moving", where windy is "I need to watch my hat".
Excellent video giving context to models. Too many of these Facebook weather pages just throw up the worst case scenario model and hype it up and give zero context. This is why your weather forecasting is tops in my book (even when the results are many in my favor…lol)
Excellent video! We already have over a foot here on central Delmarva-so this one can hit our northern friends-looks like a winter Revolutionary War encampment on the farm right now😂. Thanks Bobby
Yesss definitely it is all about timing for sure... Great illustration Bobby.thank you!.. Oh.. and i also hate it when my #2 lags or gets out in front too early.. wrecks my whole day... 🤔😳🙃
This was an unbelievable video. It was really great. I will wait to see what you say with regard to this storm or non storm. I mean you can’t believe all the crazy things people are saying about this. Thank you again
We got 4” of snow yesterday in northeast Lancaster county, just as EPAWA forecasted. The snow is blowing around out there this morning.😢. Wow! that’s amazing thanks for the explanation.
It would be interesting to know which runs for Previous storms were most accurate. Of course past results dont guarantee future success but it could show trends that one calculation is right more often
Does the bias of the ECMWF to hold back southwest energy play into the equation. I know the sharpness of the western ridge is important but I always try to be aware of this bias in setups like this.
It is holding energy back comparatively speaking to the GFS. It could be a model bias at play here, and deals with how quickly the energy piece diving into it is, and how quickly the storm ejects.
Bobby, what are the statistics of being correct for each of those models? Let's say up to 5 years back or more. Or, if you will answer, which model you rely on to be correct the majority of the time?
No direct answer to that... every model has its strengths and weaknesses, and biases. Best mid-range model is the European, however it could be playing into some biases here and has a tendency to hold back s/w energy. So we'll see...
I heard 100% chance of a blizzard! Already went to the store and bought up all the eggs and bread... looking forward to commenting on Mondays video complaining that we got nothing. Also was hoping for a snow map for this Saturday storm 2 weeks ago. Whats takiing so long!
This was very interesting and helpful and you break it down in such away that's perfect. Thank you, Bobby. I'm a betting person so I would say with all that having to happen just right my money would be betting against a big impact ,but, I have bad luck betting so now that I said that for snow lovers that's a good thing.
It’s amazing we get as many major snow storms as we do. It’s like the the pyramids of Gaza have to align themselves with the stars 😂 great explanation, thank you
Evidence-based, pragmatic analysis with just a hint of eye-rolling grumpiness. This installment has everything that makes EPAWA great.
WOW! Feels like I'm in a graduate meteorology course! Great lessons, fantastic graphics, and wonderful explanations of atmospheric vagaries that can make forecasting such a wild and wooly field. I believe you are the one who said, "Anything beyond four or five days is a guess." This video clearly explains WHY.
Fantastic deep dive. Thank you Bobby for taking the time to explain!!
Appreciate your work @ Bobby & everyone @ EPAWA!!
The numbered players helped me to understand what goes into what we get. Very cool. Thanks Bobby and EPAWA crew! No Mary Poppins activities today. I’d end up in Australia😂. Have an amazing day everyone!😁❤️
Such a great analysis - it’s like a running play in football - everything has to move in concert in order to have a big run. Thanks Bobby!
This was really very interesting and helpful! Totally geeked out to it! 😂 Thank you for your time on this.
And this is why I follow along. Love the deep dives!
That was a great show! It shows how all the pieces of the puzzle have to come together. This is why I rely on your forcast and not those on tv.
Bobby, thanks for the incredibly insightful, detailed analysis that describes the 6 pieces and how they have to interact. Thanks for sharing your gifts with us!!
Fascinating stuff, Bobby. Very thorough explanation. Thank you ! 🙏
Thanks Professor Bobby! I find this fascinating to learn. 6 "cogs" need to turn in sync is really something! Btw, I always felt breezy was more "refreshing, the air is moving", where windy is "I need to watch my hat".
Excellent video giving context to models. Too many of these Facebook weather pages just throw up the worst case scenario model and hype it up and give zero context. This is why your weather forecasting is tops in my book (even when the results are many in my favor…lol)
Excellent information Bobby! Thank you!!
Great video, thank you! I love understanding the WHYs behind our weather 😎
Awesome video Bobby. Great job.🙂👍
Good point in reference to the 1996 blizzard Bobby. Never know. Get your shovel warmed up just in case 😳
Thanks Bobby, keep it up!
Excellent video! We already have over a foot here on central Delmarva-so this one can hit our northern friends-looks like a winter Revolutionary War encampment on the farm right now😂. Thanks Bobby
Yesss definitely it is all about timing for sure... Great illustration Bobby.thank you!.. Oh.. and i also hate it when my #2 lags or gets out in front too early.. wrecks my whole day... 🤔😳🙃
Thanks for taking the time to explain.
I love these detailed explanations!! Thanks
This was an unbelievable video. It was really great. I will wait to see what you say with regard to this storm or non storm. I mean you can’t believe all the crazy things people are saying about this. Thank you again
We got 4” of snow yesterday in northeast Lancaster county, just as EPAWA forecasted. The snow is blowing around out there this morning.😢. Wow! that’s amazing thanks for the explanation.
Such an excellent video 👏, also thought of a football play 🦅, really helped to visualize thank you Bobby! 👍
Thank you Bobby this was a great explanation video !!
This exactly why I listen to you.
Great explaining-teaching, thank you.
It would be interesting to know which runs for Previous storms were most accurate. Of course past results dont guarantee future success but it could show trends that one calculation is right more often
We will see what happens, my feeling is that it will skirt on south, then wrap up around like Maine
Thank you Bobby!
Its rough where I am at 1800 feet in the Poconos. 7 now and 22 gusting to 38.
Since I have a flight scheduled for this Saturday, actually kinda hoping the storm isn't too bad.
Thank you, Sir.
Does the bias of the ECMWF to hold back southwest energy play into the equation. I know the sharpness of the western ridge is important but I always try to be aware of this bias in setups like this.
It is holding energy back comparatively speaking to the GFS. It could be a model bias at play here, and deals with how quickly the energy piece diving into it is, and how quickly the storm ejects.
WOW😳😳... I'LL PUT IN FOR LITTLE WARM AN RAIN.... THANKS😂😂..OO WELL.. THANKS FOR THE INFO. .AN HAVE A GREAT DAY 👍😎
Bobby, what are the statistics of being correct for each of those models? Let's say up to 5 years back or more.
Or, if you will answer, which model you rely on to be correct the majority of the time?
No direct answer to that... every model has its strengths and weaknesses, and biases. Best mid-range model is the European, however it could be playing into some biases here and has a tendency to hold back s/w energy. So we'll see...
@@EPAWALLC Thank you for the answer. That's what makes you special
I heard 100% chance of a blizzard! Already went to the store and bought up all the eggs and bread... looking forward to commenting on Mondays video complaining that we got nothing. Also was hoping for a snow map for this Saturday storm 2 weeks ago. Whats takiing so long!
🤣🤣
This was very interesting and helpful and you break it down in such away that's perfect. Thank you, Bobby. I'm a betting person so I would say with all that having to happen just right my money would be betting against a big impact ,but, I have bad luck betting so now that I said that for snow lovers that's a good thing.
Same time tomorrow for a 20 minute forecast?
Nope... this is my only physics dive day... y'all are on your own lol
@EPAWALLC I can manage, I know enough about what I'm looking at 😭
Bobby what’s your favorite beer
Very educational
Thank you. Godzilla time.
I hope
It’s been three years since we had a big storm
My bet...Doesn't pan out, to much at play..That said, I will take a nice snow :)
It’s amazing we get as many major snow storms as we do. It’s like the the pyramids of Gaza have to align themselves with the stars 😂 great explanation, thank you
Something shall happen ✅😎👍😂