What China's Slowdown Means for Us All
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 พ.ค. 2024
- China's National People's Congress, the annual meeting of the country's top government officials, comes amid a new economic context in 2024. For decades, China’s growth has been tremendous. But now the nation is seeing a significant slowdown. Its housing sector is in its third year of decline, the stock market is touching new lows and youth unemployment remains high. These issues may be a major headache not only for the Chinese people and President Xi Jinping, but they also have big consequences for the rest of the world.
Bloomberg journalists analyze what the end of China’s boom times means for everyone from Chinese citizens to US taxpayers.
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00:00 Introduction
01:20 China’s growth miracle
03:04 The end of the boom
04:24 Young Chinese cut spending
07:25 Consequences for the world, Xi Jinping
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I think there's a typo: The video says "slowdown" instead of "collapse".
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
....
Yet it's already 2023 and China's economy is still going strong.
🎉🎉🎉😢
Captain planet use platinum to make pollution zero...All Indian politicians stores more gold and bad people stores more gold so gold price should fall even more.....
world should turn to platinum standard no gold standard..
DECREASE GOLD PRICE AND BAN OR STOP IMPORTS AND EXPORTS GOLD..
@@jesussonofgod6284 Yes. China will never stop growing. To the world and to the universe...
"It's bad for the global economy."
Translation: Multinational corporations that have been profiting off of the misery of average people are finding harder to make more money.
Yup, the 12 hours per day work for 6 days a week in China, that the CCP did nothing about, is no longer working
And politicians in China can no longer profit as well from the people's suffering
😂 That's what I was thinking, what a terrible terrible thing
And they will redirect their loss to their clients (consumers)
Preach 🙌🏼
When they stop publishing unemployment data you know the stuff has hit the fan.
Exactly. We cannot trust CCP statistics anyway, but when they start hiding them we know things are bad.
Does ANYONE believe that China grew 5.2% in 2023? I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you if you do!
😅
That data is for 15-24, that is the age for education not doing job, if the unemployment in that age range is increasing, it means more students are pursuing higher education, more students are not dropping out, more students are not looking for small paying jobs.
@@IamHandsome4uwouldn't people that are pursuing higher education considered in a seperate category or are considered employed as they have an occupation?
"I though only those who make mistake will get fired"
Yep, worker loyalty are nothing, golden rule for everywhere.
Yea, were all dispensable, there's always a big boss above you ready to dismiss you to protect his job
She said "serious mistakes" so she admitted she makes mistakes 4:46
Don't we all . . . ? @@redsnflr
@@EllieMaes-GrandadMaybe I was correcting the mischaracterization of leaving out "serious" when the OP just said "mistake" and you're bring up a non-sequitur.
@@redsnflr I doubt you know what a 'non-sequitur' is . . . . my comment was anything but one.
You can't have unlimited growth forever. It needs to be organic and sustainable.
You can’t have unlimited anything
Chinese saw sudden foreign money and they forgot their roots ( culture, family value, affordable living, agriculture ) everyone started running rat race for money.
Agreed . That's why usa is in recession
@@kenbehrens5778China 0 recession
China 0 inflation
Usa recession
Uk recession
France recession
Germany recessing
India recession
Taiwan recession
@@ksrawat88 India best achievements so far
India's Hunger index
2013: 63rd rank
2022: 107th rank
India's Happiness index.
2013: 111th rank
2022: 136th rank
India's press freedom rank
2013:79th
2022: 150the the fourth pillar of worlds largest
democracy is no more
India's unemployment rate
2013:4.9%
2023:7.5%
Unemployment rate never increase in growing
economy.. india is growing only on paper and by
loan
India's Debt
before 2014: ₹55 lakh crore
2023: ₹155 lakh crore
India's GDP from 2004 to 2014:
$709 billion to 2.04 trilion (almost triple)
India's GDP from 2014to 2024:
$2.04 trillion to 3.6 trilion (expected)...not even
double
China's growth slowdown from high growth to normal growth was predictable and inevitable. In some ways is much healthier and better for the entire world.
Yeah. Structurally it was impossible for Chinese to pushing high growth often by stimulus to create Ghost cities. This Breaking point bw china and west was inevitable due to size of china. If china wud have kept going on as it is without any geopolitical harakiri like hong kong Taiwan 9 dash line etc West wud have dissolved their economy from within slowly and like japan, china wud have become dormant friend of US . Also the real eastate and ither Bubbles wud have kept on building though real benificiary wud have been the Big capitalists fo west taking back big returns onf high chinese growth . CCP knew this.
Now they wanted to shift to Higher value chain which wud anyway put them in direct competition with West and US.
So xinping had planned it all. Now we have to see can their companies generate same level of innovation as US. In legacy Tech Chinese have already bridged the gap.
Also china won't become a big north Korea or USSR bcoz internet has broken boundaries. Chinese protect their cyber space from world but they allow their ppl to explore world cyber space .
Normal growth is what the government claiming, but people are not seeing in their everyday life. The government's number is being mocked by Chinese people online.
Why? Can you say same thing for America?
@@DK-ev9dgNope. Totally different country, with different geography, history, and economic system.
Yet even the "normal growth" numbers are lies and everyone knows it.
Sometimes, a slowdown is not meant to be a negative thing. Globally, overproduction is always an issue, and readjusting the whole supply chain pace may not be a bad thing.
Excellent viewpoint!
The Problem is China reacts to it's slowdown with even more excess production.
True, though I think in China's case, their slowdown is a product of government mismanagement (both from things the CCP did in previous decades and more recently from Xi's micromanaging). Structural problems with their economy that need to be reformed and the fact that the government growth policy was based on faulty population metrics (which also ties into the slew of problems created by the One Child Policy). So the housing market, lagging productivity, a rapidly aging population, declining birth rates and an authoritarian government that doesn't always address each of those problems correctly all pile onto the problem.
Economies and public policy issues correct themselves all the time, but the issue with China is that it's economy's command oriented aspects tend to operate counter-intuitively due to the CCP's goals occasionally being at odds with the practical realities.
True. Housing will now be cheaper for the younger generation.
The trouble is, Chinese government is not a democratically elected one. CCP's legitmacy is solely based on fear and economy. An economic meltdown, or even just slowdown, means a totally different thi
I used to travel to many Chinese factories. They would not let me enter an area where they were making products for a designer Italian company. I did not think anything of it until I stumbled on the packaging for the items. ALL packages said "Made in Italy". The factory representative saw me notice that and said that is supposed to be secret. The Italian companies' markup was huge...
The boxes were probably made in italy, everything else when in China
@@soacespacestation8556 not very possible, they have no reason to make the boxes in Italy and spend lots of money sending them to China, freight and manufacturing cost in italy is high
@@soacespacestation8556 Many clothes, flags, and hats bearing slogans opposing China are actually made in China. The Chinese philosophy is: do as you please, as long as you pay me.
same with alot of brands. everything made in China, and
if a product was made in China, that mean cheap and fault. Marking "Made in Italy" could sell a better price.
Its worse here, our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Just buy and invest in Gold or other reliable stock , the government has failed us and we cant keep living like this.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
@@noah-greeneMind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Credits goes to " Gertrude Margaret Quinto " one of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
Stephanie has to play her own poignant music at the end; times really are tough.
ouch! 🐸
Stop it
Did she eat delivery food on the video? 90% of the world can't afford that, perhaps even a poorer third of Americans and Europeans
Anyone know the piece she's playing? It's nice
Tchaikovsky - June
Hang in there Stephanie. I am glad you found a job to get you through this rough patch.
Stephanie won't see your comment, because TH-cam is banned in China.
I’ve seen these kinds of videos over and over again every year since 2018…
Maybe since 1988.
And still makes 5000 rmb per mo😢
Well, stay in denial while China’s economy dries up.
I really hope the best to those common millennial and gen z kids. They deserve a better future like everyone else
Completely agree
Xi took hostile attitude and actions toward private companies, Taiwan, and western world, this is what he bought to his own people in order to exercise full control over China and now China is not only in recession but on its way to 2nd culture revolution.
Worked with two Z's while simultaneously training them. Not exactly proactive and ready to take on the hard work.
All they want are answers, not expending the effort to solve questions.
We are in trouble if Z's work ethic is worldwide.
Why would they? They know the odds are stacked against them and more work is the reward for hard work nowadays with the occasional pizza party.
Thank you for saying this😖
I prefer an economy without focusing too much on the property and stock market.
…yeah those used to exist but couldn’t survive due to corruption. Meaning they had bad incentives towards being truthful in their reporting.
What is economy?
Like our school lessons😊
Also consumerism.
Too bad that's nearly impossible for a large contry.
Funny, because China focus way too much on previous years, and America focus too much on stock market. America still focus too much on stock market.
Thank you Bloomberg. I particularly appreciate that the original audio was not overridden by an “interpreter” which most people find annoying. Captions are way better. Thanks.
Sadly they are starting to experience how most Westerners felt when their jobs were being offshored to China back then.
Yea four of my jobs went to China.
China's job market has always been on the rocks. It never recovered, there was "the big layoff" in the early 1990s. Massive population is the issue, new born generation simply needs jobs to survive. Now, a lot of people will die without any descendants or marriage, just like Japan once was. After their economic downfall, the percentage of the common workforce ending as the last generation of their family is high up to 60% in some area. That will happen to China too.
Who force their jobs offshored to China? What caused that happen? Is it the fault of capitalism who created globalization? The big spenders are now regretted and trying to blame China.
Karmas a b*
' sadly '
Ordinary people bear the brunt.
Almost always!
An example of when greed becomes destructive.
China is moving out of low Tech low margin areas to high Tech High margin and lowering pollution
I'm the only one tired of seeing "China is over" kind of show ?
Every few days i get a recommended video telling me that china is over, It has been more than 5 years, and china is still around.
I can see at least three videos on YT every day about China's economic collapse, and this situation has existed for at least 15 years!
And yet China gets powerful exponentially
I don't think China is over at all. If anything, it is the start of high quality China. LOL
@@phillip76tell this to their 50% failure rate on our last order of stage lights. Quality has been down on both low & high price products for years... (60-2000$ a piece)
Can't believe this is true. I just came back from 2 weeks in Qingdao and Guangzhou. The quantum of retail business activity during the Spring festival is ridiculously "fast and furious". It seems like a different world in terms of quantity compared to HK or UAE.
Did you shop during the lunar new year in 2019? 2018? 2017? How does it compare?
We are in a changing world. 😄
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
....
Yet it's already 2023 and China's economy is still going strong.
CCP online cop detected!
@@zaineridling Lot of celebration videoes online from all sources and people all over the world. TH-cam hide them from you. 😅
I’m not sure if this is like lost decades of Japan back to 90s
Yes I also think so
It is exactly the same, on a larger scale.
donot compare with un independ country.
@@dansands8140 Japan had a lot of bullets in the clip to defend itself via monetary / fiscal policy. Also, Japan had establish into a developed economy with a high standard of living for nearly all of their citizens.
CCP China wishes they had the same setup.
China GNI is through the roof. Please get a better education.
Great piece! Wish it was longer and more in depth however.
The words "Loss of consumer confidence" are the same words that hammered America 2006-2008 and beyond. In those days I drove up and down the consumer commercial strips (restaurants, home improvement stores, beauty shops etc) and the parking lots were near empty. All in a city that had not lost more than a handful of jobs from the primary cause of the downturn. Based on past consumer behavior, the Chinese Problem could easily roll its way into other industrial nations. Lack of confidence becomes the problem. Thank you for your reporting.
In China, housing prices are ridiculously high compared to wages due to real estate speculation and debt.
Due to the fact that a couple has 0 siblings, 4 parents and 8 grandparents.
Yet home ownership rates exceed 90% which ranks 2nd in the world. Household savings rates are also very high compared to majority of the world.
Welcome to Australian society
Who told you that? I have multiple family members in China and they all bought homes at an affordable rate in 1st/2nd tier cities.
My 25 year old cousin bought a home last year.
I'm in my 30s in the US and I don't know a single person who was able to buy a home, everyone rents. The few people I do know who bought houses were due to having parents helping them with their down payment and mortgages. Its far more affordable to buy a home in China than it is in the US.
Debt??? More cash buyers in China than in the US…
Hi from Europe.
5% is not bad. It's something that we can dream about. 😅
I bet you *DON'T* dream about having China's per capita GDP. 😅
5% is a fake figure. Analysts and economists have done their own analysis and China is actually having a recession instead.
@@DemPilafian can you tell us how much did Germany's GDP grew in 2023? 😂😂😂 Or the USA? 😂😂
@@kevincruz8692 Propagandists from China and Russia think that cherry picking a data point makes them clever. Nope. On a per capita basis, Germany absolutely smokes China in terms of productivity and wealth. The CCP has been horrible for China all the way back to the Revolution. Why is China so far behind?!?
@@kevincruz8692shhhh don't ask such hurtful questions
Economy has it's cycles. It's not a straight line. Only time can tell. Most predictions and worries about the future fail to happen anyway
"I thought only those who make mistake will get fired". I hate this mentality because if you think about it it's implying if someone doesn't have a job or is in a bad situation then it's their fault. I'm all for personal responsability, it's important of course, but the hard truth is that life has many factors at play at any given moment, cogs and wheels that you don't even notice. Sometimes these "invisble" things play in your favor and sometimes they don't. Let's not be so quick to judge others, life is much more complex than it seems.
A kfc worker in the us make an average of 32177 dollars annually, which is equivalent of about 120000 cny in china. That being said, a average american kfc worker is more affluent than a average doctor in china, or 90% of that country's population. So instead of blaming outside environment, which american allways do, blaming sexism, rascim, socioeconomic disparity, society, blahblah for their own lazziness and incompetence, maybe it's better working yourself. Not saying everyone who failed are lazzy losers, but most of them are in the standard of chinese.
@@zhengjy5401 What?? I don't understand your point. You think I'm making an apology of laziness?
nope, I am just saying personal responsibility, as you suggested, is of the paramount importance, more so if one lives in a developed country where there are so many opportunities to live a decent life as long as he is willing to WORK from the pointofview of someone from developing country. @@doingtime20
@@doingtime20 I think he has never lived in the USA. He doesn't know the cost of living in the USA or China, at least one of them. There is no difference when you make 30,000 dollars in the USA or 30,000 RMB in China. Same quality of life.
30000 RMB a month makes you a emperor in china
I run a singaporean sourcing company and just recently a spanish sourcing company that uses our services shut down their operation in Shenzhen and moved to Bengaluru,India. When we question them on their motives they said that things were so bad that there was no business transaction from Spainish companies with the Chinese. They are sourcing from Vietnam and India now
Everyone is running away from China.
China has trade surpluses with all those countries
Enjoy India quality, hahah
Chinese milk and handcuffs are well known for their quality
@@kevin85490 Chinese baby milk was tainted with children having issues. What quality?
Ray Dalio’s been awfully quiet recently 😂
wonder what he would have to say about all this?
Bulls on China ain’t going to be happy especially as “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” recently made these Property Developers Junk Bonds a hot commodity
Problem is they were expecting the Chinese Central Government to backstop these Junk Bond investments
I even had old colleagues reach out to me because I researched China back in the 1980s
I basically told them the Chinese Central Government wasn’t about to bailout these Property Developers after cutting off money to them for over a decade
They didn’t listen
In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
@@alanledger1858 This is the inevitable result of China's real estate market adjustment, and it will be a success to survive these five years
what does this mean?
@@DxsPro Ray Dalio is one of renowned economists who predicted China's rise as the global superpower.
I can see at least three videos on YT every day about China's economic collapse, and this situation has existed for at least 15 years!
哈哈哈哈，西方媒体天天说中国经济崩溃，中国媒体最近才开始说美国要崩溃了。。。
golden Chang teach them to do that. LOL
Those videos are funded by NEP
Looks like they are correct. China's per capita GDP is still very low even when you compare it to the countries of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore.
@@DemPilafian So by your logic countries like India and Vietnam have collapsed since their GDP per Capita is abysmal even compared to China lol
it means China is ready to advanced to next level ; now you will see Chinese brands everywhere not just OEM
OEM MEANS
Original Equipment Manufacturer. means a company that makes a product to be sold by another company under its own name. For example, an OEM manufacturer might make products for a brand like Apple or Tesla, who then sell the products under their own brand names. @@Myfirstproject296
@Myfirstproject296 Produces for others, affixes other people’s trademarks
Sounds like a “big leap foward” all over again 😅 the iron market in China has already started to get fked
@@Myfirstproject296Move your fingers to ggoogl.😂By the way, OEM is an acronym of "Original Equipment Manufacture".That means some brands authorized aboard factories to produce their product with cheaper productions like labors, raw material and land.And those brands are called ODM(D stands for design).There multinational companies can make a huge premium by advanced design like Apple and Toyota.
Isn't this missing some critical analysis?
China told us they were going to pop the property market bubble years ago, intentionally, and now they did.
They told us they would stop focusing on growth and focus more on quality of life and rural development. Now they did.
The stock market doesn't dictate the economy in China like it does in the west. I feel like this is not being represented in this video well enough.
Our stock market doesn't really reflect our economy condition well sometimes.
Property prices go down 6%. They get 5% growth. What a terrible situation.
The stock market doesnt dictate the economy in china because the property market has done that in its place. And now this speculative bubble has come to a bursting point. Maybe buying empty apartments in deserted ghost towns was not a stable foundation upon which to build your economy. But then again, if I said that in China i would probably be 'disappeared'
@@blob2092 You are not the first one saying it. Your government had been saying that for years. China homeownership is over 90%, it will take years to digest the over supply. It would help the urbanization policy though when the price becomes more affordable.
Yeah I think that's missing the whole point. They're building oversupply deliberately to keep home prices down, home ownership up, and stop a real estate bubble. I was there 1 month ago and the residential construction is still going at an insane pace.@@cinpeace353
Let’s not confuse stock performance with economic fundamentals. Alibaba is dirt cheap but if you look at the numbers behind it, the company is doing extraordinarily well as compared to its stock valuation
lol, last quarter, BABA grew by +5% in revenue with lower margins. I'll cheat and not use their operating margin because it's terrible. Adjusted EBITA up by a whopping +1%.
Going to get worse since that's Oct-Dec data. Next quarter is lapping their "re-opening".
China GNI is through the roof. Please get a better education.
@@augustus331 lol, you forgot about common prosperity right?
Regardless, tell me how you are going to model the DCF cash flows on a stagnant and falling trend?
@@augustus331 lol, they "can", but they DON'T. When the company says, "yeah, we are going to wait and not use our cash on buybacks, it ain't undervalued". They ain't even spending 50% of their FCF on buybacks.
@@HKim0072 I think that’s because of their expansion in other markets necessitating cheaper products and thus subsidising like Temu and Shopee are doing.
Not sure if that’s the right way, they are spending 35 billion on buybacks. Look I don’t need to convince you but just coining another side
Surprised this looked at China as a consumer market, was hoping to hear more about production and foreign investment. Hope there is a part 2.
lol for thinking anything about china would viewed positively here in the west. lol again for thinking the west would view china’s market any different. Consumerism is the sole metric.
@dznuts123 Chinese authorities and the rest of Asia know China is in trouble too
Times are tough now.
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
....
Yet it's already 2023 and China's economy is still going strong.
China has been "collapsing" longer than I am alive at this point...
@@nulnoh219 Economists who just talk are never right let alone you who are nothing...
😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
....
Yet it's already 2023 and China's economy is still going strong.
😂😂😂 westerners and daydreaming of china failing are 5&6. People need to rise above zero sum game mentality
Lots of headwinds. Population decline. Aging population. Complete collapse of housing which is almost the only personal savings of most people. Long time coming but it's over for China. Japan took 30 years to come out but China will take longer.
Pls focus on THE BIGGIST BOMB at the other end : US National Debit is at $34,628,829,468,516 today and is keep increasing...
just came back from China， people there have lower income than the western countries but everything’s are so cheap, my daughter just brought a set of markers for 25 Chinese Yuan which is 4.5 Canadian, in canada the same thing you have to pay 40- 60 Canadian
In second tier cities like Hangzhou, college graduates earn a monthly income of 10000 yuan. Paris, France, is already a first tier city in Europe, right?? The average salary is 2000 euros. Renting a house costs 900 to 1000 euros. I don't understand what you said about the high income in the West???
with Hangzhou as an example, the average monthly salary of Hangzhou fresh graduates is ￥9.6K ￥, 80% of the positions belong to this level 6-15K. More than 2000 euros is already the average salary in Paris, France, where I have many classmates. Germany may have a little more than €2.500 or so.
Yes, things are cheaper.
But I don't think you understand the devastation of deflation to the economy.
You need an education.
Well yeah, because if the markers cost $40 in China no one would be buying them. You even put it right there in your comment "people there have lower income." Shocker, if the people earn less then goods must cost less to be affordable. That's like economics 101.
@@AhmetTekin101 can you educate me on west's hyperinflation?
I got nothing from this on how the world will be affected except for the Chinese suffering
Well we already got countries such as UK, Germany and Japan in full recession.
You didn't hear how it will effect the US or all the developing nations that rely on Chinese money, were you listening ???
There is no Chinese slowdown; even in the most "pessimistic" ChinaBad propaganda, China's economy will grow 2,5% this year. "Slow down would mean, China must have a negative GDP, like Europe.
On the other hand, till now, every year, western "ChinaBad" MSM propaganda, at the end of the year, was forced to publish headlines like: "China's economy growing more than expected", and "US's economy grows less than expected".
"International organizations forecast that China's 2024 GDP growth rate will likely fall between 4.5% and 4.9%, while the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated the figure to be slightly higher, ranging from 4.8% to 5%." (DW)
Because Bloomberg is kind of Pro-china (or Pro-business?), they want you to think we can not live without China.
It already stated on the start that Chinese funding for foreign projects are drying up.
When anything is OVERPRICED, then given enough time, it would CORRECT itself in pricing. It would be unsustainable to keep an expensive "something" indefinitely, when you can't justify such high costs.
Actually that's not necessarily true. The entire purpose of a monopoly is to deny consumers choice and thereby price goods higher without having to provide comparable improved service or product. For example, if you had a monopoly on oil or potable water, you could charge whatever you wanted, because the cost to the economy of the people who need your oil would be so incredibly high, they'd pay anything to get it. Same thing with cable companies in the US. Many of them have a local monopoly and are able to charge higher prices because of it.
There are a whole slew of supply and demand chart in economics that explain how / why / how much monopolies are able to extract more revenue from consumers.
@@nocrtname SUBSTITUTES will always be available. Just because you were dependent on CHINA for many many years -- this does NOT mean you can't MOVE to India, Vietnam, or Indonesia. As such, even Monopolies can be destroyed.
@@juntak75 Substitutes will always be available unless it's a product made with a mind boggling investment. Semiconductors would be a gd example, the amount of investment and time it takes to make them is so high that if only one company existed at the moment then they could charge whatever they want for the next decade.
@@juntak75 Also I wanted to say that the US main trade partner of the last year or 2 is Mexico. The US had supply chain crisis during covid and decided to start moving manufacturing to Mexico enmass.
As Chinas standard of living went up so has the price of manufacturing there. It's now become cheaper to build infrastructure in Mexico from the ground up. Plus it's closer.
Soon will be the rest of Central America and South America. Chinas role as a manufacturing giant will soon drastically diminish.
I don't think you understand the devastation of deflation to the economy.
You need an education.
5.2% is consider bad? how many country economy growth is more than 5.2%?
Haha, I know right. These people are ridiculous. You know what, let them think whatever. Who cares.
India
@@souravshaw859 India is a poor country the highest population GDP very small only $3T+. To get same amount of GDP growth ,China gdp growth 5.2% = India gdp growth 28%
I mean it's slowdown. And it'll slowdown further.
@@davidchin1008First off all india GDP in nominal is 4.112 trillion GDP per capita 2.850$
in PPP 14 trillion GDP per capita 10000$ source IMF
With fastest growing economy
Now cry harder 😭😂
Covid taught the world a great deal about the need for robust supply chains and the value of on-shoring key industries….
Covid also taught corporations how much they could get away with in screwing over consumers
I relate to that Chinese woman a lot. I was promised so much when I was young. I spent time and money at college. Now I am thrown away like trash. No one will hire. No one will offer consistent pay. There is no job hopping anymore. Etc.
I am a young American man in my "prime earning years" and not a single company will help me start my career. I have been unemployed for over a year now. I have friends with masters degrees in engineering and they are having the exact same problems as me. No rejection letters. No interviews. Just silence.
What's your major?
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
GDP doesn't mean much when service is the predominant type of labor.
what are you talking about?
GDP is goods and services it is both.
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Since when 5.2% growth for the second largest economy (the largest if measured by PPP) becomes definition of being economically weak? Europe growth is barely 1%. None sense
5.2%是假的，就2023年那状况哪来这么高的增长，我不知道你为什么会如此信任中国官方的统计，他们连真实的历史都不敢让中国人知道，他们编造很多谎言，我是中国人我比你更了解中国，中国今年的经济增长应该是-5.2%
They moving from an export based economy to internal economy of course there will be a temporary slow down. Clearly this is a biased report.
this didn't age well
They never do
im a western guy realising I have been lied to... bye bye propaganda!!! welcome the zhong guo overlords🫡
Great documentary. Make another one about how the "ordinary people" live in the US in the past decade, especially in big cities such as San Francisco.
Brought to you by Bloomberg Originals lol
IT means peace, stability and security...... For many nations around china
Never understood the habit women have of spending thousands of dollars on a bag of all things. You can get a bag for 10 dollars. It's for carrying things.
Its about class.
Lower class women are disrespected
Upper class women are respected
That simple
Im the usa, you don't want to dress like a homeless person, if your ego is fragile.
You dress nice.
Try to look middle class.
Its a societal construct. Often shaped by Big luxury brands like LV and promoted by Elites.
@@AlmaVasquezjr"Try" to look middle class? If you don't have food I'm sure some bag is more important
@@AlmaVasquezjrAre you the USA? How is it being a country?
@@AlmaVasquezjr Big hat and no cattle is the worse lifestyle one can think of.
Is it tho? Seeing a lotta news like this in my feed recently, but im in contact with some ppl who work there, and they honestly havent felt it. Goods and services are still cheaper better and more abundant for the average 9-5worker at least than here in north America
west's propaganda at work
Where in China? it varies greatly. I as an American, haven't felt the pinches reported to be occurring in America either, doesn't mean the don't exist obviously.
@@yesyes-om1po what is your take on the price of a dozon eggs selling for $4.99 at stop n shops in 2024 compare to 0.99 or 1.29 in 2019?
@@xiebaiqin Still living comfortably is what I mean, prices globally have risen since 2019.
@@yesyes-om1po just nato countries overall
im german & i love chinese ladies. bravo china on your money & power!
5 years ago I talked with many Chinese people in Beijing, Taiyuan and other cities and they all told me the same thing “ that is impossible “ . I said we will see . Booom 2024.
Still seems pretty recoverable to me despite the anti-china sentiments from western governments
Couldn't have happened to a nicer government!
It Is The Culture.
when people think things will just keep improving means you're living in a bubble... As an American I know the only way to get out of massive debt is to start wars...
I don 't know if you are trying to be cute, but it is not ok. It is immoral, and it is the source of so much instability in the world.
Really, because I'm pretty sure going to war increases debt even more, looking at historical data. But perhaps you can enlighten us?
I don't know how that works..wars are expensive
@@benjaminhuston1390 not for the winning party. If you have debt owned by a rival (see China v USA) the debt disappears. Also a future war would include cyberattacks, so if cloud computing is hit especially in the financial sector all debt would literally disappear (as would money in a digital form)
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The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated
If China is reporting growth in the low single digits, it is really shrinking instead.
When China's GDP was only $ 2 - 5 $ trillion it was growing at 8 - 10 & ,you cannot continue to have a double digit growth when your GDP is 18 trillion dollar, no country can do that,but your net GDP increase would be bigger at 5 % of 18 trillion than 8 % of 5 trillion.
India with a GDP of of less than 4 trillion cannot even have a double digit growth rate and people are saying that India is doing better than China when in fact China's net GDP increaseis way larger than India.
"I cut back unnecessary spending"... now let me open this door dash order 🙄
Restaurant and food delivery are super cheap in China compared to the west, I bet that order cost her less than $5
That crab stick ruin my brain OMGNESS - 6:25
I think there's a typo: The video says "slowdown" instead of "collapse".
If there wasn't covid and you had these sudden drop in sales from China, it would be a shock. The China region is actually growing year over year, but over putrid numbers.
Companies need to reset and realize this is the new baseline for China. Ain't getting back to pre-2020 numbers for a while.
China GNI is through the roof. Please get a better education.
They will be even more belligerent, as seen by their behavior against the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc.
Perfect house of cards, experienced massive growth but somewhere along the line they began to think they're immune to a slow down.
I'm living in the same place for 24 years. Never really feel there's a boom.
😂 been abandoned
Quite interesting analysis on China's economy, probably the Covid pandemic and lower investments in China from multinational companies are not the only elements why the wages are getting lower. Also China's show of force these last years has started to frighten foreign investment there, the effects of which will continue more and more as time passes. This makes me think of the enormous power and potential multinational companies have on any country. Where they go and invest, it really gives a huge boost on the country's economy.
No investment in China.
Don’t let dictators take over
Atleast chinas diktators are in the light. Western leaders are owned by special interests
Agreed . That's why we won't let us take over . I say that as an American . Xi jin ping is better
Chinese 🇨🇳 property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing.
- Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down.
- Foreign investment (FDI) is falling over 90%, lowest in 3 decades.
- Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
- Consumer prices are experiencing deflation.
- Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record.
- Its fast-shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries.
*Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol
Where does the growth come from?
You wouldn't believe any of it
If IMF/WB's estimates of China's growth are more or less correct it is still the envy of most of western nations including America. Gordon Cheng and his cohorts have always been dead wrong about China's trajectory.
It probably came from the construction 🏗️ sector
@@fly463The GDP was man-made.
你的数据从何而来
7:50 Pretty funny to have DEMOCRACY listed as a Chinese value on that building. The people may value it but their leader doesn't.
what do you know about chinese politics aprt from being told from western msm
There’s a fundamental deference between the roles of government in the west & in China. People’s perception of government is also different. In practice, I found Chinese government is far more effective & efficient than those in the west.
Of course western medias won’t tell you about that difference or you’d be furious with urs lol
There were over investments in areas such as real estate. Covid's impact on world economy accelerated these effects.
Looking at the 2 largest economies in the world, US with high inflation, where the Chinese suffer lower employment. All the same bottom line though, people's quality of life are hit.
There's equilibrium: China down, India up. So, the world economy is safe
man, we humans really are all more alike than we are different, aren't we?
This have the same setup of another lost decade like 90s Japan. The only difference is that Japan already established itself as an advanced economy with a thriving liberal democracy and Japan is part of the Western alliance. China on the other hand with even more authoritarian regime on its imperialistic path could only dreamed of having such setup.
China is a sovereign country Japan is not😂
@@AB-fi5jt So you mean a country that’s without friends and soon could be running out of cash?
@@AB-fi5jtthat's true but only politically, China is not sovereign economically, entire Chinese economy was built by US investments and now that USA is pulling out of China, you see the downfall
You had been caught up in too much western propaganda.
The Chinese economy is fine.
I just came back on hols there.
Western propaganda always focus on the one fella that lost job, lost investments….
@@concernedcitizens4110it's has friends bro
India be like -Now it's my time to shine 🇮🇳😎
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Woah, imagine that. When countries invest and build up their middle class then they prospers but when they favor the few elites they crumble.
you mean India 😂 .. 2% rich control 90% wealth
Meanwhile, BYD becomes the biggest EV exporter in the world.
ah the miracle of expansive subsidies and IP theft - truly the chinese dream.
What does that have to do with the price of tea in china?
@@ryanwalters6184 Odd question, how about corns in US?
High Gross National Income!
@@cinpeace353Odd qn, how about skyrocketing youth unemployment in China
Been hearing that for 10 years now.
well, its been a bit over ten years since the Xi took power. Coincidence? I think not.
It was inevitable. It was a race to get rich before they got old for China. They now got old. Their population pyramid might be the worst in history.
This time is for real
@@brulsmurf34 Trillion in debt is the USA, PELOSI in insider trading bliss!!! yeap china is collapsing
@@kenyup7936 1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to ahalt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hardlanding
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering adangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing forthe Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hardlanding risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China.
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a SoftLanding?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find away to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012. American Interest:2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News fromChina: A Hard Landing
2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going ToCrash?
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than You Think
2022. Business Basics: China's Economic Crisis, GDP is Crashing, Protests Everywhere
Make your own that’s how it should it been from the beginning make your own cars everything
Pls focus on THE BIGGIST BOMB at the other end : US National Debit is at $34,628,829,468,516 today and is keep increasing...
"I cut back on unnecessary spending"... proceeds to get takeout lunch at home. :)
Xi Jingping was the worst thing to have happened to China. Dude took China back to the Mao days.
美国增长多少？😅
@@user-kb4bo4vk3b Check our stock markets and compare it to yours LOL. There's a reason we have Chinese people flooding in from our southern borders. Now go back behind your firewall before Xi Jinping finds out!
@@ponuni 我说东你说西，你理解能力有问题吗
You said that because USA failed to control him and he managed to outmatch America. Too bad so sad!
@ponuni lol tell that to homeless people who's percentage increased by 20% rotflmao 😂😂🤣🤣😭😭💀
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, while some people are putting just $1k in a meme coin for just few months and become multi millionaires. if you you don't invest, you're missing out on opportunities to increase your financial worth,
It’s the beginning of the end
This conflates corporate profits to economics. Most of the companies mentioned produce goods in china.
300 dollar rent on a 3-4k salary? yeah thats really tough 🤣
They don't make anywhere near 3k
The domestic real estate sector plays a pivotal role in China's economy. However, since 2020, it has been under stringent regulation due to concerns about a potential financial crisis fueled by excessive debt. As a result, a slowdown in economic growth seems inevitable at some point. With a significant amount of capital trapped within the banking system and lacking alternative attractive investment outlets, deflationary pressures have emerged. I believe that China needs to cultivate emerging industries with high investment value to absorb the massive investments that were previously directed towards the real estate market
An interesting article. But did not answer the question mentioned in the heading
My parents were experienced laid off from national company in 90s.
📝 Summary of Key Points:
📌 China's economic growth has significantly slowed down, leading to deflationary pressures, stock market losses, rising unemployment, and reduced spending on a global scale.
🧐 The slowdown in China's economy is attributed to factors like the property crisis, strict COVID policies, geopolitical tensions, and a confidence crisis due to debt and regulatory crackdowns.
🚀 The economic challenges in China have resulted in job losses, salary reductions, and increased financial struggles for individuals, impacting both domestic and global markets.
💡 Additional Insights and Observations:
💬 Quotable Moments: "This is an economy that became the world's Factory floor by driving up tons and tons of expansion and becoming this giant manufacturing Powerhouse."
📊 Data and Statistics: Nearly one in 3 Chinese office workers reported falling salaries in 2023, the highest share in at least 6 years.
📣 Concluding Remarks:
The economic slowdown in China has far-reaching implications, affecting not only the country's citizens but also global markets and political dynamics. Understanding the challenges faced by China is crucial in navigating the evolving landscape of the world economy.
Generated using TalkBud
Narratives like this are extremely deceiving. Much of the economic indicators don’t tell the whole story and do not take into account various strategic moves China is undertaking to counter western sanctions. Despite this Chinese stock market has actually been surging the past month or so. Domestic consumption and travel are currently higher than pre-pandemic levels. They’ve recently become the world’s largest auto exporters. Despite downturn in real estate market they were still able to hit their GDP growth target of 5.3% which is still 2X most G7 nations. FDI from Europe has also been increasing. All in all they are in a transition phase and adapting to the changes in global economics and geopolitics which is a sign of competent leadership. The next Chapter in China’s growth story will involve much more sustainable focus on high end production and innovation.
China Economy has been collapsing since 15 years ago but during this 15 years, China built high speed train, several aircraft carrier, space station, EV etc etc 🤣
Wait, growing at 5.2% is bad? How much is the US growing?
Meanwhile india grew at 8.4%
8.4%* bro
But still poor.
@@DoTheJudracist caste system.... its cultural, ma'at
@@DoTheJud are u rich?
India is still like 4 times behind China. Which means, if China is expected, even in pessimistic "ChinaBad" propaganda, ca. 4% this year, India must grow 16%, to grow the same, in USD.
Another video of China decline, yes sir 🤠
I feel the same way.
When China's economy slow down that indicates our economy is also in trouble.