Anyone else want to see these guys do their ideal Oscars? Like they nominate the films they would want to see in every category? I think it would be really fun
I just saw Tick..tick..Boom...awesome !! I am betting on Will Smith to win Best Actor....but I honestly would not be disappointed if Andrew Garfield won Best Actor !!
I have genuinely started to wonder if The Tragedy of Macbeth pulls a Phantom Thread. - Academy royality filmmaker - Late release - Is predicted to be nominated for Lead Actor and 1-2 techs before the nominations - Despite great reviews it's not considered for Best Picture in the precursor season.
I’m feeling the same way - I think BAFTA is going to give it a sudden positive momentum shift, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coen nominated for Director at both BAFTA and Oscar come the end of the season
I feel like The Lost Daughter is gaining a considerable momentum, being the favorite at the Indie Spirit Awards and having at least two nominations locked (Colman and screenplay). It might easily occupy the 10th slot
Just finished Don't Look Up, and for Best Picture, it's definitely a NO for me. Belfast is a quite good frontrunner, but I have to see yet The Power of the Dog tonight, and Licorice Pizza and West Side Story in the following days.
I've seen the other 3, I'd say the other 3 are definitely gonna get nominated for Best Picture. I still need to see Don't Look Up but from what I've heard I wouldn't be surprised if the film does well with nominations.
This love of Kodi Smit-McPhee is baffling to me. He was fine. Maybe even good, if you get all weird about it. But Troy Kotsur far away feels like an Oscar winner. His big scene is that good. Thank you for putting him at #1!
@@martinpascoe5904 I wouldn't look too deeply into what we're saying. We're not being overly mean; we're just saying we don't feel he would deserve an Oscar win.
A lot of ppl are doubting jessica chastain but i think she will get the globe, critic, and sag and then the oscar. She sang with her own voice and she literally becomes a different person physically.
As of right now I agree with u. I think she has a strong narrative to win since this is her 3rd nomination. I feel like Kristen Stewart’s nomination is sorta of like a welcome to the club type nomination and her movie is not good. If the movie was better it would have helped Stewart’s position better but unfortunately it’s a weak film. I think Chastain is looking good right now. We’ll see how this progresses.
@@nate-it9xq kristen is great in the movie but its boring. Jessica is being nominated everywhere with kristen but i think the critics will choose jessica over kristen.
I finally watched The French Dispatch, and I understand why it didn’t preform as well as everyone thought it would last year… but I don’t understand why it flat out died. It’s definitely not for everyone, and it’s definitely a hot mess… but the fact that it’s not even in the top 12 possible screenplays up for nominations baffles me. It’s definitely not the kind of thing for a universal audience. However, with the academy being a group of artists, I feel like if there’s any community of people that would rally behind a film that deals with the tortured artist, journalism, and the dramatization of small things in life, it would be them. Idk, tell me why I’m wrong or why I’m cringey for liking it so much, I’m all ears.
@@nyda2558 I wouldn’t go as far as calling him a genius either, but I feel like his obscure and different world building style is a lot more likable and effective than somebody like Tim Burton or even Stanley Kubrick. I know I’m definitely in the minority by mentioning Kubrick. I do give him way more props because of the time that he made his great movies, and because he was one of the first to do it on that scale. However, judging based solely on the films, I think Anderson is one of if not the best in this sub genre.
@@nate-it9xq i would put it in possible for screenplay along with drive my car, cmon cmon, mass and spencer. But the safe guess would be being the ricardos. My whole point is that people are underestimating it.
It'll probably for Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Song, and Best Adapted Screenplay. I don't think Emilia Jones can get a Best Actress nomination cuz it's damn stacked already
also funny how earlier in the season we thought Marlee Matlin was this movie's best chance at a nomination, the Oscar Expert said in multiple videos that 'she is the face of the movie', but now the movie has 3 locked nominations even if Matlin doesn't make it in (i hope she does, let's see if she can do it at sag)
@@dariussalepetru6770 Nobody thought Olivia Coleman would win. Andrew has a lot of hype around him for spider-man that might seep through while voting. Who knows
@@vanessaajohn i really want will smith to win but i will not surprise if he lose, his wife is so problematic, not to mention when she boycotted the oscar tho
Jodie Comer in ‘The last duel’ blew me away. Shes an amazing actress and deserves to be considered. Sadly, the movie didn’t go anywhere and messed up her chances.
the international academy members are really going to shift all your predictions in the top 5 categories .... watch out for Drive my car and Parallel Mothers.. the academy especially abroad love Pedro and Penelope Cruz
The Hand of God’s director Paolo Sorrentino is very well loved (The Great Beauty won foreign film) and he may very well get that international film director slot.
Exactly! Let's just say, mark our words, Drive My Car will win. Burning and Drive My Car, came from completely different directors, and although I'm a fan of Lee Chang-dong, Burning is less accessible or "less relatable" and very anxiety inducing and that's why it wasn't even nominated.
Tick..tick..BOOM is the MVP for me this year. Great performances, smart adaptation, and just a solid product all around. Garfield 100% deserves a best leading actor nod for it at the very least.
@@dariussalepetru6770 (most valuable player) it's a sportsball reference that I don't think I'm quite using right in this context. Lol. I'm just throwing the acronym around as a quirky way of saying it's "my favorite."
Forgot to update the sound page, these are my actual predictions: Dune West Side Story No Time to Die Belfast Tick, tick… Boom! A Quiet Place Part II The Power of the Dog The Matrix Resurrections Spider-Man: No Way Home Last Night in Soho
I agree with dune West side story belfast power of dog and soho no time maybe but matrix differently not spider man no way home doesn't seem like it would be nominated and a quiet place 2 is a horror movie The academy hates horror movies which is why silence of the lambs was the last real horror to get nominated for best picture and tick tick boom is another maybe maybe not
I actually think Spencer grabs that final slot for Best Picture. I would love to see Drive My Car get nominated, but if something like Spencer is inaccessible for them, then why would they go for Drive My Car? I don't even have it in my International Film predictions as of now (I see it having the same trajectory as Burning - they're going to pick something accesible like Compartment No. 6 or anything random from the shortlist), or maybe they go with a generic pick anyway like Being the Ricardos/Nightmare Alley. I never thought of Ricardos as a contender outside of Best Actress (and Kidman could slide too), though I did think Nightmare Alley would make it in anyway but the lack of acting, screenplay and editing noms at the Critics Choice made me lose faith. I really feel that whatever is getting that 5th ambiguous original screenplay slot makes it into BP, if it's not Spencer. I think that could be Mass/Worst Person/C'mon C'mon (C'mon C'mon getting shut out at both Globes and CC was infuriating). Or maybe the Academy pulls a Phantom Thread and surprisingly comes through for their favorite directors (The Tragedy of Macbeth/The French Dispatch - which could very well get screenplay too). Or maybe it's an animated film, I wouldn't discount the possibility of a history making nomination for Flee too.
@@survivalsuiters5982 wasn't the biggest fan of the movie but would be happy with it being nominated. It's way better then most of the potential Best Picture nominees (King Richard, Belfast, Don't Look Up, Dune, etc.)
Andrew and Benedict both are my favourite. I will happy if either wins. Moreover, in female category I'd love Jessica to win but also Sandra Bullock deserves a nomination for the unforgivable.
It sounds like it matters because No Way Home is the only film Sony can push for Best Picture. Disney has their hands full pushing West Side Story and their animated stuff, but vanilla Sony Pictures has nothing else to campaign besides Mitchells for animated. When a distributor can focus on one film for that Best Picture push, that can help a film immensely.
International film had two surprises last year with Better Days and The Man Who Sold His Skin. This year, I personally like Great Freedom and I think Hive could break in as well.
honestly, maybe its bold, but will smith is my 3rd right now. i dont see anyone really losing their shit over his performance like andrew garfield, and benedict cumberbatch is SWEEPING. i really think he is losing hype fast, its a lock for a nomination, but im really unsure now if he will win
yeah i also moved him down to #2 below Benedict... I know the whole "critics are not equal to the industry" thing, but Benedict is sweeping the critic circles almost as unanimously as Kristen Stewart. We'll have to wait for the televised awards (longer than expected as Critics Choice got delayed😭) but right now I don't really buy the Will Smith hype
I think Smith is still number 1 until we see BAFTA nominations and Critics Choice winners. He's the easiest to nominate, but not the easiest to be passionate about. I personally think it's a fine performance, one that only ever feels like a performance and not an embodiment. I always saw Will. I think his nomination is inevitable, but I still don't buy this win. Hell, I even feel Mahershala Ali rivals him for the Golden Globe right now! Critics choice... Are we really gonna argue he beats Benedict who is sweeping, and Andrew who has emerged the public favourite? Only one Will really has in his hands without any difficulty is the SAG. BAFTA could altogether snub him, tell me you can see it, while Benedict, Andrew and Denzel make it in. (Not sure about Dinklage getting a BAFTA nomination either).
@@Leo-ox1rd maybe in a year like 2018, with Rami Malek and Christian Bale... But this year? He doesn't even have the playing a real person card on his side, as Andrew Garfield and Peter Dinklage do, in musicals which are harder, one of which is a more passionate Picture contender. Garfield is also a more lively performance. Benedict is the critic demon. It's a possible winner, but Smith will not sweep like we all assumed once upon a time. He is going to win the Oscar by the skin of his teeth, if he even wins.
The correlation between an Editing nomination and Best Picture nomination/win is a well known fact. The only Best Picture winner not nominated for Editing in the last 30 years was Birdman and that was edited to be perceived as a one shot film.
I really don't understand the hate for Belfast. It seems to happen every year where 1 movie just catches the wrath of "Film Twitter" and then everyone shits on it for months. It's a great movie.
Glad you enjoyed it but I thought it was thoroughly mediocre. The characters were cliched and boring and it did nothing interesting. It was just a series of disjointed, maudlin vignettes. I can see why people enjoy it and I can see why people hate it but I don't see how anyone can claim it's even close to being the best of the year.
I think they are referring to the visual style and how the Academy will not go for it. The Oscars love their auteur work, hence why Vinterburg and the director of Cold War took out Sorkin and Farrelly for Trial and Green Book. Even with the international backing, the visual style can kill it.
I love your predictions top notch as always! I was rooting for Caitriona Balfe for Belfast soo much since apart from Screenplay, it has a huge chance. I think Power of the Dog is too beloved by critics that I would predict that as Best Picture lock
Still so baffled by all the praise Belfast and Power of The Dog have been getting. Pig should be so much higher everywhere, it's kind of a shame. Also wish Petite Maman had been France's pick for International.
It would be the lowest ranked film to win Best Director in decades though. Considering there’s not really a world where Dune is a top 3 film in Picture, it seems unlikely. The only time it’s happened in recent memory was Life of Pi, simply because the real Frontrunner was snubbed.
If Titane was nominated, then people will complain if it doesnt win, so it's better that the movie step out of it, not because it's not Oscars-worthy, but certainly it's not Oscar material.
I still think those 2 minutes from Leo were more than enough for an Oscar nomination. Also the academy loves him, so I still think he is getting in instead of Dinklage.
Huh?! Bitters End is the local Japanese distributor and one of the production companies of Drive My Car. The US-American distributor is Janus Films. Please fix it.
For me Dune will win 7 Oscars for: (changing in my mind) - Editing - Cinematography - Costume Design - Production Design - Original Score - Sound (TIE winning with Spider-Man No Way Home) - Visual Effects
Yeah, Academy doesn't look at the audience group anyways. I always knew a movie like The Power of the Dog is not for everyone. Since not everyone can enjoy Jane Campion's The Piano, not everyone will enjoy her new movie too
You should see GoldDerby. They’re all salivating over the movie, and I’m completely convinced it’s because of their Jane Campion stanning and massive crush on Kirsten Dunst and nothing else.
@@Gemnist98 it's kind of weird to see the way some peddle this movie (including those in the comment section right here). Although there are favorable reviews here and there, the narrative of the majority of audience reviews ranges from boredom to frustration to outright anger. Not a good look for The Academy if they were to honor it, as people can tell when they are being manipulated. There are so many other films that have a broader audience appeal while keeping to similar (or higher) artistic and technical standards. A large part of the movie experience is connecting with a film, and so many others this year supersede The Power of the Dog on that front.
I watched The Power of the Dog this weekend and I thought it was a really good movie, so I love that it is getting all the love from the critics. I have yet to see many of other frontrunners though..
why isn’t andrew getting ANY nomination for supporting actor for tammy faye 😭 he’s only for 1 nomination from the houston society awards like i don’t get it
I think Olivia Colman or Nicole Kidman is going to be the Upset at the Oscars.. there performances were fucking outstanding!!! Especially Colman subtle nuance performance!!
People should remember that Prince William is the president of BAFTA. It would be so awkward for Spencer to win anything there. No shock for me if Kristen isn't even nominated.
@@nickxyx2879 The depiction of Diana in Spencer is not comparable to The Crown. If Kristen wins she's going to make a speech with William sat right infront of her?.. I can't see this happening.
To me c’mon cmon is the best picture In my heart I think it’s one of the best films I’ve ever seen it’s so sweet and heartwarming and feels like nice hug
Oscar 2022 best actress prediction: kristenstewart-spencer.jessica chastain-tammyfaye.oliviacolman-lostdaughter.tessathompson-passing.penelopecruz-pararrelmothers. (Diversity roles of 2022 by actresses)
I fully see a SAG and BAFTA surge. For both Isaacs and Dowd. Hell, for the film. BAFTA might go 3 or 4 out of 4 for nominating the actors, and screenplay is so in.
I think Chastain may be someone who gets in at the precursors and then gets taken out by Haim or Zegler just cause they're in Best Picture nominees. I just can't see her win given NO ONE cares at all about that movie. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel much safer with the other four above her. Someone has to go to get a Best Picture nominee in.
@@-datrandomdude-6979 Like...? With Judy Zellweger was always the frontrunner and that did decently at the box office. She was also playing JUDY GARLAND. With Still Alice that was Moore's time, and she was also always the frontrunner.
@@knivves0ut I'd agree if there weren't other contenders from Best Picture nominees who need to get in cause we can't have a lineup without one, and as of now the predicted five doesn't. So... someone's gotta go.
Am loving Oscar race this year as don’t think as yet there is any clear front runners in any category, and I really liked Belfast, Power of the Dog and others like the lost daughter and red rocket. But am bored to death with biopic after biopic and am sad about the lack of love for Jason Isaacs.
I think the reason people are assuming No Way Home gets a BP nomination is because they think the Oscars are desperate for more viewers and would nominate them to attract more viewers. I guess it's possible but I seriously doubt they will.
It would take that kind of buzz to get the majority of people to start watching the Oscars again. And hell, it's one of the few Marvel movies to deserve it, more than the ones that actually DID get in.
Don’t Look Up really shouldn’t get nominated for Best Picture. I get the love for Adam McKay (Vice and Big Short were good) but damn this was just meh. West Side Story and Dune all the way!
Ryusuke Hamaguchi is def getting in. It’s been pretty consistent that best director is reserving a spot for international film directors. Spielberg prob odd man out
I think that it's not that best director is reserving a spot for international film directors. Pawlikowski and Vinterberg got in because they are really big names and they are respected among the director's branch. Both of them have been in the industry for so long. Pawlikowski discovered Emily Blunt, Vinterberg is one of the creators of "Dogme 95 manifesto". They are very influential in the movie world. Hamaguchi is not that respected and well-known.
I still stand by Sorrentino as the international nominee contender this year. Hand of God has its passionate support sector and Sorrentino is highly regarded in the industry. Hand of god is also a very personal work like Pawlikowski’s Cold War. If either Hamaguchi, Farhadi or Sorrentino show up in on Oscar morning, look out for BAFTA. They hav shown an impressive correlation with nominating international directors all the way back to Michael Haneke for Amour.
Consistent? It’s happened, what, 3 times in the last decade for a film that wasn’t a major overall player? That’s not consistent at all. Cold War and Another around have been the only ones to get in without a coinciding Picture nomination, and Drive My Car is absolutely not getting into Picture.
It’s weird that Dune is the front runner for Cinematography. The cinematography was fine, but there are other films in here that would be better choices. Just because Dune is winning Sound, Visual Effects, etc. doesn’t mean it needs to sweep every tech category
i'm sure this is a very controversial opinion but... the french dispatch, tragedy of Macbeth (even though i have yet to seen it) and Spencer are my top for cinematography. I loved dune but looking back I feel the visuals rely more on production design and location rather than camera movement. if my boy roger was on the team i'd give it to him but theres just so much more style in the others.
I think this year we might have a BAFTA/Oscar split for Best Actor. I think King Richard is going to struggle at BAFTA because international critics are just not responding to it. It got completely shut out by Dublin and London and they're two of the biggest international critics circles and they've both been important precursors leading up to BAFTA.
As a photographer, I will be super pissed if Macbeth doesn't get cinematography. it was by far the best movie, but you are probably right guessing dune winning here.
You guys are really underestimating Nicole Kidman, Spencer is extremely divisive and because of that Stewart will have a hard time getting older Academy Awards to vote for her. Kidman played an American Icon and she is very respected amongst her peers and I can see her taking it easily.
Maybe, but I also see a major BAFTA issue. No chance they nominate her, hell they would rather nominate Javier Bardem. Kidman has a hard time getting into BAFTAs as is, the jury will eat her alive. GaGa also feels kinda in trouble because if that. Stewart, Chastain and Colman will probably sneak in, with Alana Haim or Penelope Cruz, and Renate Reinsve and Emilia Jones running a chance of a nomination. Even the girl from Titane if she is considered lead could make it in. But Kidman feels just in that top 10 for BAFTA. I would not bat an eye if her or GaGa missed the shortlist altogether.
i hope Andrew Garfield is gonna win an Oscar for his performance in tick, tick...BOOM! and Willem Dafoe for his performance in Spider-Man: No Way Home because they both truly deserve it!!
Drive My Car is excellent and is almost certainly one of the top 5 films of 2021: might be a slow-burn and not as "showy" technically as the other contenders, but it's an impressive adaptation of difficult source material with just enough changes to make it more cinematic (for example, changing the colour of the car). Would be a deserving choice for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay (as well as Best International Feature), along with being a pleasant surprise.
I do wanna point out that Janus Films is handling the US distribution of “Drive My Car”. Bitters End is its Japanese distribution/production company. Janus Films is arguably most notable for being the parent company of The Criterion Collection. Also Sony/Columbia, when it comes to “Spider-Man: No Way Home”.
Dune was thought to be impossible to do a good adaptation. Dune part 1 cut 90% of the first half of the book to transfer it to the screen. And the question is *which 10%* do you leave in to make an understandable, engaging movie??? Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Villenueve are nothing short of geniuses in my mind for managing this feat at all.
Anyone else want to see these guys do their ideal Oscars? Like they nominate the films they would want to see in every category? I think it would be really fun
I hope they notice this
Like this would be cool
Will consider!
💯 great idea!!
You guys should do “If we Picked the Winners” like Siskel and Ebert used to do
I just saw Tick..tick..Boom...awesome !! I am betting on Will Smith to win Best Actor....but I honestly would not be disappointed if Andrew Garfield won Best Actor !!
Andrew Garfield Should win
I agree! Either way well deserved.
Will Smith better win the Oscar, it's finally his chance, he may not get another chance ever again.
@@everythingisawesome2903 true! This is his best chance
@@everythingisawesome2903 this is way Oscars voting for older people since last years, they think its deserving awards instead of the best performance
I have genuinely started to wonder if The Tragedy of Macbeth pulls a Phantom Thread.
- Academy royality filmmaker
- Late release
- Is predicted to be nominated for Lead Actor and 1-2 techs before the nominations
- Despite great reviews it's not considered for Best Picture in the precursor season.
It’s probably the one to watch
yes to all of these arguments 💯
I’m feeling the same way - I think BAFTA is going to give it a sudden positive momentum shift, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coen nominated for Director at both BAFTA and Oscar come the end of the season
@@davidmitchell-baker1701 it could give McDormand a nomination
I've been thinking the same thing! I'm predicting it for
Actor
Cinematography
Production Design
Director
Picture
I feel like The Lost Daughter is gaining a considerable momentum, being the favorite at the Indie Spirit Awards and having at least two nominations locked (Colman and screenplay). It might easily occupy the 10th slot
Just finished Don't Look Up, and for Best Picture, it's definitely a NO for me. Belfast is a quite good frontrunner, but I have to see yet The Power of the Dog tonight, and Licorice Pizza and West Side Story in the following days.
It’ll probably get nominated though. Just won’t win
I've seen the other 3, I'd say the other 3 are definitely gonna get nominated for Best Picture. I still need to see Don't Look Up but from what I've heard I wouldn't be surprised if the film does well with nominations.
Dune is such a well-crafted piece of film and wat better than Licorice PIzza and West Side Story. Reviews say that as a whole
I don't get how people don't like don't look up I think it nails our time and prolly already has the best ensemble of the decade.
This love of Kodi Smit-McPhee is baffling to me. He was fine. Maybe even good, if you get all weird about it. But Troy Kotsur far away feels like an Oscar winner. His big scene is that good. Thank you for putting him at #1!
I also think many other actors could have delivered what Smit did. Cumberbatch on the other hand was just excellent and in his own League.
@@martinpascoe5904 I wouldn't look too deeply into what we're saying. We're not being overly mean; we're just saying we don't feel he would deserve an Oscar win.
A lot of ppl are doubting jessica chastain but i think she will get the globe, critic, and sag and then the oscar. She sang with her own voice and she literally becomes a different person physically.
Globes and SAG are certainly possible but why would she get the Critics Choice over Stewart?
She’s amazing in the eyes of Tammy Faye
As of right now I agree with u. I think she has a strong narrative to win since this is her 3rd nomination. I feel like Kristen Stewart’s nomination is sorta of like a welcome to the club type nomination and her movie is not good. If the movie was better it would have helped Stewart’s position better but unfortunately it’s a weak film. I think Chastain is looking good right now. We’ll see how this progresses.
@@nate-it9xq kristen is great in the movie but its boring. Jessica is being nominated everywhere with kristen but i think the critics will choose jessica over kristen.
She did everything that needed to be done!
I’d love to see Jessica Chastain win best actress .
Spenceeeerrrrrrrr
I finally watched The French Dispatch, and I understand why it didn’t preform as well as everyone thought it would last year… but I don’t understand why it flat out died. It’s definitely not for everyone, and it’s definitely a hot mess… but the fact that it’s not even in the top 12 possible screenplays up for nominations baffles me. It’s definitely not the kind of thing for a universal audience. However, with the academy being a group of artists, I feel like if there’s any community of people that would rally behind a film that deals with the tortured artist, journalism, and the dramatization of small things in life, it would be them. Idk, tell me why I’m wrong or why I’m cringey for liking it so much, I’m all ears.
Wes Anderson is just confusing, and not in a genius artistical way, but in more of a crazy artistical way
@@nyda2558 I wouldn’t go as far as calling him a genius either, but I feel like his obscure and different world building style is a lot more likable and effective than somebody like Tim Burton or even Stanley Kubrick. I know I’m definitely in the minority by mentioning Kubrick. I do give him way more props because of the time that he made his great movies, and because he was one of the first to do it on that scale. However, judging based solely on the films, I think Anderson is one of if not the best in this sub genre.
To be honest, I really think Jessica Chastain should win, her performance in the eyes of tammy faye was next level
The French dispatch is definitely possible for original screenplay. Moonrise Kingdom and Royal Tenenbaums both got nominated only for screenplay.
... no. It’s not. It didn’t even get the CC nom. French Dispatch isn’t an above the line contender.
@@nate-it9xq i would put it in possible for screenplay along with drive my car, cmon cmon, mass and spencer. But the safe guess would be being the ricardos. My whole point is that people are underestimating it.
@@survivalsuiters5982I mean I guess I cannnnn see it being a random pick but I think Being the Ricardos and Cmon Cmon are way more likely.
I’m glad CODA is getting recognition and hopefully will be in the Oscar’s ceremony because all the actors all did a phenomenal job.
It'll probably for Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Song, and Best Adapted Screenplay. I don't think Emilia Jones can get a Best Actress nomination cuz it's damn stacked already
also funny how earlier in the season we thought Marlee Matlin was this movie's best chance at a nomination, the Oscar Expert said in multiple videos that 'she is the face of the movie', but now the movie has 3 locked nominations even if Matlin doesn't make it in (i hope she does, let's see if she can do it at sag)
I think no one know the Movie behind Coda
Crossing fingers for Andrew Garfield and Robin de Jesus. Both deserve recognition.
Just saw the film last night and I fucking loved it! It deserves a Best Picture nomination imo!
I wish the Academy made shortlists for ALL categories. That would make Oscar predictions so much easier.
Yeah but then the reactions wouldn't be as shocking lol
It would kill the surprise element. Imagine LaKeith Stanfield showing up in a shortlist.
@@oskari7121 yeah butbthat nom. In supporting was bullshitttt
I really hope the Andrew Garfield will win.
@@dariussalepetru6770 Nobody thought Olivia Coleman would win. Andrew has a lot of hype around him for spider-man that might seep through while voting. Who knows
@@vanessaajohn i really want will smith to win but i will not surprise if he lose, his wife is so problematic, not to mention when she boycotted the oscar tho
Okay fine I agree Rei 🤗❤
Will Smith >>>>>>
Jodie Comer in ‘The last duel’ blew me away. Shes an amazing actress and deserves to be considered. Sadly, the movie didn’t go anywhere and messed up her chances.
I could really see Garfield winning tbh especially with all the good will coming from Spider-Man
Hope so. He WAS Jonathan Larson. It would be well-deserved.
@@humzaakbar809 Yes
You replaced Goldderby for me. It’s great listening to you during the holidays. Thank you.
the international academy members are really going to shift all your predictions in the top 5 categories .... watch out for Drive my car and Parallel Mothers.. the academy especially abroad love Pedro and Penelope Cruz
The Hand of God’s director Paolo Sorrentino is very well loved (The Great Beauty won foreign film) and he may very well get that international film director slot.
Exactly! Let's just say, mark our words, Drive My Car will win. Burning and Drive My Car, came from completely different directors, and although I'm a fan of Lee Chang-dong, Burning is less accessible or "less relatable" and very anxiety inducing and that's why it wasn't even nominated.
Wasnt expecting Drive my car to get in the top 10, still think Nightmare Alley will get that spot
Same
I don’t think Nightmare Alley gets in because it underperformed on the shortlists.
I love it when y’all argue about whatever, it’s just funny
Tick..tick..BOOM is the MVP for me this year. Great performances, smart adaptation, and just a solid product all around.
Garfield 100% deserves a best leading actor nod for it at the very least.
MVP?
@@dariussalepetru6770 (most valuable player) it's a sportsball reference that I don't think I'm quite using right in this context. Lol. I'm just throwing the acronym around as a quirky way of saying it's "my favorite."
Forgot to update the sound page, these are my actual predictions:
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
Belfast
Tick, tick… Boom!
A Quiet Place Part II
The Power of the Dog
The Matrix Resurrections
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Last Night in Soho
thank you!
The Last Duel deserves it though
I agree with dune West side story belfast power of dog and soho no time maybe but matrix differently not spider man no way home doesn't seem like it would be nominated and a quiet place 2 is a horror movie
The academy hates horror movies which is why silence of the lambs was the last real horror to get nominated for best picture and tick tick boom is another maybe maybe not
I actually think Spencer grabs that final slot for Best Picture. I would love to see Drive My Car get nominated, but if something like Spencer is inaccessible for them, then why would they go for Drive My Car? I don't even have it in my International Film predictions as of now (I see it having the same trajectory as Burning - they're going to pick something accesible like Compartment No. 6 or anything random from the shortlist), or maybe they go with a generic pick anyway like Being the Ricardos/Nightmare Alley. I never thought of Ricardos as a contender outside of Best Actress (and Kidman could slide too), though I did think Nightmare Alley would make it in anyway but the lack of acting, screenplay and editing noms at the Critics Choice made me lose faith.
I really feel that whatever is getting that 5th ambiguous original screenplay slot makes it into BP, if it's not Spencer. I think that could be Mass/Worst Person/C'mon C'mon (C'mon C'mon getting shut out at both Globes and CC was infuriating). Or maybe the Academy pulls a Phantom Thread and surprisingly comes through for their favorite directors (The Tragedy of Macbeth/The French Dispatch - which could very well get screenplay too). Or maybe it's an animated film, I wouldn't discount the possibility of a history making nomination for Flee too.
I really hope its the french dispatch.
@@survivalsuiters5982 wasn't the biggest fan of the movie but would be happy with it being nominated. It's way better then most of the potential Best Picture nominees (King Richard, Belfast, Don't Look Up, Dune, etc.)
@@rambunctiousrohan personally it my favorite film of all time.
@@survivalsuiters5982 im glad you got more out of it then me! I appreciated it a lot and am definitely going to rewatch it to get a better perspective
Kidman is definitely in now
Give an oscar to Andrew Garfield & arianna debose
RIP Titane :(
I want to see spencer in cinematography so bad. It’s honestly one of the best I’ve seen so far.
It’s one of the best I’ve ever seen, pains me that it isn’t a lock for a nomination when it easily should be.
Andrew and Benedict both are my favourite. I will happy if either wins. Moreover, in female category I'd love Jessica to win but also Sandra Bullock deserves a nomination for the unforgivable.
Just started watching you guys and I'm addicted to it lmao great content
I think Spider-Man: No Way Home being more of a Sony based production than MCU entry will help it, especially in technical awards.
Why? What’s it matter if it’s Marvel or Sony?
It's totally a MCU entry. Venom it's not.
NWH is
@@ChicoGames but Whys that matter?
It sounds like it matters because No Way Home is the only film Sony can push for Best Picture. Disney has their hands full pushing West Side Story and their animated stuff, but vanilla Sony Pictures has nothing else to campaign besides Mitchells for animated. When a distributor can focus on one film for that Best Picture push, that can help a film immensely.
@@stephenlambros3286 That's not the point she's making
Sing 2 with its great box office and A+ CinemaScore and Bono voice could sneak in.
I just want The Green Knight for best Picture
Where can i watch it? 😭
@@davidquiroga2567 it out on DVD Blue ray now
It has like no shot at a nomination but I would love that too :(
A24 should’ve had a better release date closer to nominations or pushed for it instead of Cmon Cmon
I think it should be nominated for best cinematography 💖it has the visuals similar to blade runner 2049
can't believe Macbeth isn't sweeping cinematography awards
I was having a bad day :( I saw you guys uploaded now it’s a good day :)
it’s been a whole wk since the oscar expert and brother bro have dropped. the streets are hungry
International film had two surprises last year with Better Days and The Man Who Sold His Skin.
This year, I personally like Great Freedom and I think Hive could break in as well.
You guys are really good! Just discovered your channel less than a week ago. I’m impressed.
honestly, maybe its bold, but will smith is my 3rd right now. i dont see anyone really losing their shit over his performance like andrew garfield, and benedict cumberbatch is SWEEPING. i really think he is losing hype fast, its a lock for a nomination, but im really unsure now if he will win
yeah i also moved him down to #2 below Benedict... I know the whole "critics are not equal to the industry" thing, but Benedict is sweeping the critic circles almost as unanimously as Kristen Stewart. We'll have to wait for the televised awards (longer than expected as Critics Choice got delayed😭) but right now I don't really buy the Will Smith hype
@@aameyadevansh4246 honestly any of the two + andrew garfield winning would be totally fine to me such amazing performances
I think Smith is still number 1 until we see BAFTA nominations and Critics Choice winners. He's the easiest to nominate, but not the easiest to be passionate about. I personally think it's a fine performance, one that only ever feels like a performance and not an embodiment. I always saw Will.
I think his nomination is inevitable, but I still don't buy this win. Hell, I even feel Mahershala Ali rivals him for the Golden Globe right now! Critics choice... Are we really gonna argue he beats Benedict who is sweeping, and Andrew who has emerged the public favourite? Only one Will really has in his hands without any difficulty is the SAG. BAFTA could altogether snub him, tell me you can see it, while Benedict, Andrew and Denzel make it in. (Not sure about Dinklage getting a BAFTA nomination either).
@@reecejennings9637 exactly! idk, i REALLY think hes being overestimated right now. also dont buy a easy win
@@Leo-ox1rd maybe in a year like 2018, with Rami Malek and Christian Bale... But this year? He doesn't even have the playing a real person card on his side, as Andrew Garfield and Peter Dinklage do, in musicals which are harder, one of which is a more passionate Picture contender. Garfield is also a more lively performance. Benedict is the critic demon. It's a possible winner, but Smith will not sweep like we all assumed once upon a time. He is going to win the Oscar by the skin of his teeth, if he even wins.
The Oscar Expert has a thing with Editing and we trust him with it
The correlation between an Editing nomination and Best Picture nomination/win is a well known fact. The only Best Picture winner not nominated for Editing in the last 30 years was Birdman and that was edited to be perceived as a one shot film.
@@pb.j.1753 Coincidence
@@pb.j.1753 that’s actually weird it wasn’t nominated though since that’s impressive to make it look as one shot
King Richard is getting weirdly shafted in Editing, it also didn’t show up on the BAFTA longlist
I really don't understand the hate for Belfast. It seems to happen every year where 1 movie just catches the wrath of "Film Twitter" and then everyone shits on it for months. It's a great movie.
Glad you enjoyed it but I thought it was thoroughly mediocre. The characters were cliched and boring and it did nothing interesting. It was just a series of disjointed, maudlin vignettes. I can see why people enjoy it and I can see why people hate it but I don't see how anyone can claim it's even close to being the best of the year.
its a good one but didnt really catch me and definetly not a best picture to me. at least is not kinda problematic like green book
I would give best director for denis villeneuve just for a reason he pulled off a compelling dune story which many have tried to direct well.
Drive My Car is one of the best film dude.. seriously delusional to say that the direction is not good. Hamaguchi fucking killed it.
I think they are referring to the visual style and how the Academy will not go for it. The Oscars love their auteur work, hence why Vinterburg and the director of Cold War took out Sorkin and Farrelly for Trial and Green Book. Even with the international backing, the visual style can kill it.
Titane not getting in is just a shame
Chastain was soooo good i agree
Passing is soooo good. Tessa Thompson and Cinematography should be contenders besides Ruth Negga 😭
Drive My Car will have it's name in cinema history. Seriously
I love your predictions top notch as always! I was rooting for Caitriona Balfe for Belfast soo much since apart from Screenplay, it has a huge chance.
I think Power of the Dog is too beloved by critics that I would predict that as Best Picture lock
I have deduced a perfect Supporting Actor Category:
1. Jamie Dornan
2. Mark Rylance
3. Mike Faist
4. Troy Kotsur
5. Cooper Hoffman
For me
1. Kodi Smith McPhee
2. Troy Kotsur
3. Ciaran Hinds
4. Bradley Cooper
5. Jared Leto
Still so baffled by all the praise Belfast and Power of The Dog have been getting. Pig should be so much higher everywhere, it's kind of a shame. Also wish Petite Maman had been France's pick for International.
For best director I think Villenuve might get the award. I am thinking a best picture split between TPOTD and Dune for best director.
It would be the lowest ranked film to win Best Director in decades though. Considering there’s not really a world where Dune is a top 3 film in Picture, it seems unlikely. The only time it’s happened in recent memory was Life of Pi, simply because the real Frontrunner was snubbed.
Mike Faist just did a second NYT Profile. Not predicting him yet but I don't think he's a purely stan twitter thing.
I hope you're right...he was amazing
Depends on the SAG or BAFTA nominations. He gets one, believe in him. He gets none? Won't happen.
@@reecejennings9637 He needs SAG. If he gets that I think he might be in.
"how powerful is your dog" this made me laugh so hard
What happened to French Dispatch?
Titane not being nominated will have me losing all respect for the oscars
If Titane was nominated, then people will complain if it doesnt win, so it's better that the movie step out of it, not because it's not Oscars-worthy, but certainly it's not Oscar material.
I still think those 2 minutes from Leo were more than enough for an Oscar nomination. Also the academy loves him, so I still think he is getting in instead of Dinklage.
There has to be one person who hasn't been previously nominated in the top 5. So the only way leo gets in is if denzel doesn't. Sadly dinkledge is in
@@mackinjosh really? I had no idea about that rule. In that case you are probably right
@@AndreFernandesMovies it’s not a rule, it’s just a stat that people think needs to hold up despite no evidence of it.
@@mackinjosh Leo is nominated for a Golden Globe for this role 🧐
@@pb.j.1753 ..and?
Drive My Car is distributed by Janus Films in the US.
Bitters End is the Japanese distributor.
Huh?! Bitters End is the local Japanese distributor and one of the production companies of Drive My Car. The US-American distributor is Janus Films. Please fix it.
I’m predicting Dune to win 4 Oscars. Best Production Design, Best Score, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, and altogether be nominated for 11,
@@dariussalepetru6770 not for visual effects?
@@dariussalepetru6770 I think the power of the dog will win score that was such a great score
What do you have for editing?
@@reecejennings9637 Belfast
For me Dune will win 7 Oscars for:
(changing in my mind)
- Editing
- Cinematography
- Costume Design
- Production Design
- Original Score
- Sound (TIE winning with Spider-Man No Way Home)
- Visual Effects
Could you guys give us a top 20 or 25 or 10 favourite movies of all time, doesn’t have to do with the oscars but that would be really cool
I die for these. Dont ever stop. Thank you.
The Power of the Dog is doing very well among critics groups, but continues to sink among audiences.
Yeah, Academy doesn't look at the audience group anyways. I always knew a movie like The Power of the Dog is not for everyone. Since not everyone can enjoy Jane Campion's The Piano, not everyone will enjoy her new movie too
You should see GoldDerby. They’re all salivating over the movie, and I’m completely convinced it’s because of their Jane Campion stanning and massive crush on Kirsten Dunst and nothing else.
@@Gemnist98 Or here this out...shockingly enough some people like some movies more than others.
@@Gemnist98 it's kind of weird to see the way some peddle this movie (including those in the comment section right here). Although there are favorable reviews here and there, the narrative of the majority of audience reviews ranges from boredom to frustration to outright anger. Not a good look for The Academy if they were to honor it, as people can tell when they are being manipulated. There are so many other films that have a broader audience appeal while keeping to similar (or higher) artistic and technical standards. A large part of the movie experience is connecting with a film, and so many others this year supersede The Power of the Dog on that front.
@@reeldeal3227 parasite , 12 years a slave , moonlight , silence of lambs they are critically acclaimed but loved by audiances
I watched The Power of the Dog this weekend and I thought it was a really good movie, so I love that it is getting all the love from the critics. I have yet to see many of other frontrunners though..
Something verging on a Rotten score shouldn’t win Best Picture. It just shows how out of touch critics are.
Really hoping Andrew Garfield secures that win for an Oscar, he truly was out of this world with his performance
Yes because he was in Spider-Man No Way Home
why isn’t andrew getting ANY nomination for supporting actor for tammy faye 😭 he’s only for 1 nomination from the houston society awards like i don’t get it
I think Olivia Colman or Nicole Kidman is going to be the Upset at the Oscars.. there performances were fucking outstanding!!! Especially Colman subtle nuance performance!!
People should remember that Prince William is the president of BAFTA.
It would be so awkward for Spencer to win anything there.
No shock for me if Kristen isn't even nominated.
Nah, it doesn't mean a thing. The 4th season of The Crown had like 5 nominations for BAFTA TV awards and William was there during the ceremony.
@@nickxyx2879 The depiction of Diana in Spencer is not comparable to The Crown. If Kristen wins she's going to make a speech with William sat right infront of her?.. I can't see this happening.
@@yeahiagree1070 The Crown gives his father a very bad name. I think that the level of awkwardness is comparable
If he can influence the nominations, it is close to corruption. This is conspiracy territory. Kristen will be nominated 100%
Also what a tragically petty man he would be if he cares about Kristen Stewart getting a nomination or not. I am not buying this shit.
To me c’mon cmon is the best picture In my heart I think it’s one of the best films I’ve ever seen it’s so sweet and heartwarming and feels like nice hug
Oscar 2022 best actress prediction: kristenstewart-spencer.jessica chastain-tammyfaye.oliviacolman-lostdaughter.tessathompson-passing.penelopecruz-pararrelmothers. (Diversity roles of 2022 by actresses)
Andrew Garfield has got me all abuzz. He’s insanely good.
I think Jason Isaacs has a path with a BAFTA nomination
I fully see a SAG and BAFTA surge. For both Isaacs and Dowd. Hell, for the film. BAFTA might go 3 or 4 out of 4 for nominating the actors, and screenplay is so in.
I think Chastain may be someone who gets in at the precursors and then gets taken out by Haim or Zegler just cause they're in Best Picture nominees. I just can't see her win given NO ONE cares at all about that movie. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel much safer with the other four above her. Someone has to go to get a Best Picture nominee in.
happens pretty regularly that actresses in movies no one cares about gets nominated or even win
@@-datrandomdude-6979 Like...? With Judy Zellweger was always the frontrunner and that did decently at the box office. She was also playing JUDY GARLAND. With Still Alice that was Moore's time, and she was also always the frontrunner.
It’s called the “lone nominee” effect. She’ll get in, it works in actresses favor usually
@@knivves0ut I'd agree if there weren't other contenders from Best Picture nominees who need to get in cause we can't have a lineup without one, and as of now the predicted five doesn't. So... someone's gotta go.
@@nate-it9xq Take out anyone except for Stewart or Chastain.
Am loving Oscar race this year as don’t think as yet there is any clear front runners in any category, and I really liked Belfast, Power of the Dog and others like the lost daughter and red rocket. But am bored to death with biopic after biopic and am sad about the lack of love for Jason Isaacs.
Just watched mass again. How can this film be so ignored?
I think the reason people are assuming No Way Home gets a BP nomination is because they think the Oscars are desperate for more viewers and would nominate them to attract more viewers. I guess it's possible but I seriously doubt they will.
Maybe Spider-Man No Way Home will get nominated for Best Picture, Best Visual Effects and Best Sound
The oscars nominated Joker and still having Joker there didn’t help the oscars get more viewership
Were these done after the shortlists because I swear half your sounds list weren't on the shortlist
My noms for Best Original Screenplay: Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Free Guy, Don't Look Up.
Nightmare is adapted
@@reecejennings9637 yes
I want Spider-Man to get in just to watch the internet lose it's collective mind!!
That would be very funny
It would be a mess. We don't need this kind of nonsense. Spider-man is a blockbuster and that's it.
I really like No Way Home
Scorsese and Villanueva would roll over and die 🤣
It would take that kind of buzz to get the majority of people to start watching the Oscars again. And hell, it's one of the few Marvel movies to deserve it, more than the ones that actually DID get in.
Don’t Look Up really shouldn’t get nominated for Best Picture. I get the love for Adam McKay (Vice and Big Short were good) but damn this was just meh.
West Side Story and Dune all the way!
And Power of the Dog
@@dariussalepetru6770 Not for me personally but I know it has its fans and I’m a B Cumberbatch fan so I wouldn’t mind seeing it get some love.
I watch Power of the Dog in January 1st and I really liked 10/10
Did anyone ever tell them Janus Films/Criterion were the ones funding Dive My Car's awards campaign?
Im hoping West Side Story wins best picture was an outstanding update and i feel an improvement over the 1961 film
Seeing Nightmare Alley falling so hard makes me incredibly sad. Am I the only person who loves this movie?
It was good. Just not my personal favorite Del Toro film.
@@jongon0848 agreed, but for me it doesn’t have to be the best del toro film ever to still be one of the best of the year
@@kylejohnson4615 that's fair
I like the analysis by the numbers.
Ryusuke Hamaguchi is def getting in. It’s been pretty consistent that best director is reserving a spot for international film directors. Spielberg prob odd man out
Spielberg is a lock. The odd man out is PTA.
@@christianknight727 I still say Branagh is the odd man out. First thing the people who don't like Belfast criticize is the crafts and the direction.
I think that it's not that best director is reserving a spot for international film directors. Pawlikowski and Vinterberg got in because they are really big names and they are respected among the director's branch. Both of them have been in the industry for so long. Pawlikowski discovered Emily Blunt, Vinterberg is one of the creators of "Dogme 95 manifesto". They are very influential in the movie world. Hamaguchi is not that respected and well-known.
I still stand by Sorrentino as the international nominee contender this year. Hand of God has its passionate support sector and Sorrentino is highly regarded in the industry. Hand of god is also a very personal work like Pawlikowski’s Cold War. If either Hamaguchi, Farhadi or Sorrentino show up in on Oscar morning, look out for BAFTA. They hav shown an impressive correlation with nominating international directors all the way back to Michael Haneke for Amour.
Consistent? It’s happened, what, 3 times in the last decade for a film that wasn’t a major overall player? That’s not consistent at all. Cold War and Another around have been the only ones to get in without a coinciding Picture nomination, and Drive My Car is absolutely not getting into Picture.
Titane is too cool for the Academy
i do not believe drive my car is going to get in to picture that is a very long shot… also i would watch out for compartment no. 6 perhaps over flee
It’s weird that Dune is the front runner for Cinematography. The cinematography was fine, but there are other films in here that would be better choices. Just because Dune is winning Sound, Visual Effects, etc. doesn’t mean it needs to sweep every tech category
I think dunes cinematography is great and really draws you into the story
i'm sure this is a very controversial opinion but... the french dispatch, tragedy of Macbeth (even though i have yet to seen it) and Spencer are my top for cinematography. I loved dune but looking back I feel the visuals rely more on production design and location rather than camera movement. if my boy roger was on the team i'd give it to him but theres just so much more style in the others.
I like Tick Tick Boom for screenplay and editing nominations.....and would not be upset for best director nomination.
PTA should finally get a best screenplay award for Licorice Pizza. It's the right thing to do..
I feel like having the president of the Academy saying that spiderman isn't Oscar-worthy basically killed any and all chances at best picture haha
Damm did they really say that lol then that really kills it
I think this year we might have a BAFTA/Oscar split for Best Actor. I think King Richard is going to struggle at BAFTA because international critics are just not responding to it. It got completely shut out by Dublin and London and they're two of the biggest international critics circles and they've both been important precursors leading up to BAFTA.
As a photographer, I will be super pissed if Macbeth doesn't get cinematography. it was by far the best movie, but you are probably right guessing dune winning here.
You guys are really underestimating Nicole Kidman, Spencer is extremely divisive and because of that Stewart will have a hard time getting older Academy Awards to vote for her. Kidman played an American Icon and she is very respected amongst her peers and I can see her taking it easily.
Not everyone is thrilled by Kidman’s performance. There are a lot of deserving actresses, but perhaps not Kidman. A good performance, but is it great?
Since when has the academy ever cared about the quality of a performance, it's all politics buddy. If your film is divisive, you won't win.
Maybe, but I also see a major BAFTA issue. No chance they nominate her, hell they would rather nominate Javier Bardem. Kidman has a hard time getting into BAFTAs as is, the jury will eat her alive. GaGa also feels kinda in trouble because if that. Stewart, Chastain and Colman will probably sneak in, with Alana Haim or Penelope Cruz, and Renate Reinsve and Emilia Jones running a chance of a nomination. Even the girl from Titane if she is considered lead could make it in. But Kidman feels just in that top 10 for BAFTA. I would not bat an eye if her or GaGa missed the shortlist altogether.
i hope Andrew Garfield is gonna win an Oscar for his performance in tick, tick...BOOM! and Willem Dafoe for his performance in Spider-Man: No Way Home because they both truly deserve it!!
No
Justice for Jodie Comer 😭
No
Don’t Look Up Has Horrific Editing. Has anyone acknowledged it?
The power of the dog was amazing. i HOPE they sweep.
Maybe will win 3 Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor
Drive My Car is excellent and is almost certainly one of the top 5 films of 2021: might be a slow-burn and not as "showy" technically as the other contenders, but it's an impressive adaptation of difficult source material with just enough changes to make it more cinematic (for example, changing the colour of the car). Would be a deserving choice for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay (as well as Best International Feature), along with being a pleasant surprise.
Why no love for The Last Dual?? Please explain.
Slightly unrelated but what are the biggest predictors for acting categories at the Emmy’s?
I do wanna point out that Janus Films is handling the US distribution of “Drive My Car”. Bitters End is its Japanese distribution/production company. Janus Films is arguably most notable for being the parent company of The Criterion Collection.
Also Sony/Columbia, when it comes to “Spider-Man: No Way Home”.
Dune was thought to be impossible to do a good adaptation. Dune part 1 cut 90% of the first half of the book to transfer it to the screen. And the question is *which 10%* do you leave in to make an understandable, engaging movie??? Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Villenueve are nothing short of geniuses in my mind for managing this feat at all.