Strange as it may seem, Drive My Car actually has a great shot at winning Adapted Screenplay after winning several major screenplay awards from the critics (London, NSFC, Boston, LA and more). Dog probably still has it, but it wouldn't surprise me if DMC sneaks in there and takes it. There's clearly love for the film with it getting the additional nods for Picture and Director (International Film was pretty obvious), so again, wouldn't surprise me if this is where they choose to honor it.
@@TimeIdle Possibly. If it weren't for the other major nominations DMC got, I would say it doesn't stand a chance, but with it getting in for BP, clearly a lot of people have seen it, and those who haven't probably/hopefully will.
@@igorsilva3657 These are voted on by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Was there some confusion about that? CODA and Lost Daughter aren't very strong contenders because they've had no momentum throughout the season (Lost Daughter has only won screenplay awards at Venice and the Gotham Awards, while CODA has won two from very minor groups). DMC has been very popular throughout and has shown that big, important groups find it to be the best screenplay of the year (ie not just adapted), hence why it's in a very strong 2nd place right now behind Power of the Dog, and could very well take it.
@@igorsilva3657 Drive My Car is also a strong contender for a screenplay. It literally won Best Screenplay at the Cannes Film Festival so that movie has a shot too
Dune for VFX is the biggest lock of the night, I 100% agree. I also predicted it for like, every technical category but I haven't seen many of the other nominees so I may be wrong
I thought the idea of K Stew winning an Oscar was nauseating.... until I saw Spencer. She deserves that award 100%. I've been converted from a hater to a stan!
I so badly wish that Jessica Chastain would walk home with the Oscar She's such a great actress so versatile she's just like Tilda Swinton she completely transforms into a whole other person. I'm still upset she lost Jennifer Lawrence I mean come on
At any given Sunday, I would not be surprise if Drive My Car would be the dark horse for Best Picture. As for Best lead actress, I'm pulling for Kristen Stewart. Actor will go to Will Smith. But then again, who knows...
It won't win. I wish it could be a threat, but Drive My Car missing out on that Editing nomination is a HUGE reason why. No film, (with the exception of Birdman due to its one take gimmick, and the same almost happened with 1917) has ever won Best Picture without a nomination for Best Editing since Ordinary People back in 1980. I know stats are meant to eventually be broken (like The Shape of Water did with the SAG Ensemble nom stat), but Drive My Car still needed more nominations than the ones it received. It'd be a great surprise if it did win, but The Power of the Dog is winning Best Picture in a cake walk since Belfast and West Side Story also missed out on that editing nomination. That doesn't mean Dune or King Richard have a chance either as nether of them received a Director nom (even though I know Argo and Green Book broke that stat as well). I'd love to be wrong, but I would definitely not bet on it.
I don’t know - I think Drive My Car is a critical darling that would make a great choice for BP (similar to Roma!) but it doesn’t have the crowd pleaser vibe *as much* as Parasite did. So I think it’s more likely to fall under a Roma situation.
For Parasite, it had the precursor of being the first foreign film in history to get nom'd and win the SAG Ensemble, and tied BP with 1917 at CC. What does Drive My Car have that could topple PotD, a movie that showed up everywhere it needed PLUS acting noms for ALL its players (and Prod Design for some reason) I'd say Dune and its 10 noms is the actual dark horse (despite most of them being techs and Director missing) or CODA (which showed up everywhere it was predicted to, including a Best Supporting slot that could be a win) If Don't Look Up somehow, somehow takes home Editing and Screenplay it will also be a very probable dark horse. Unless DMC miraculously steals both Director and Screenplay from Campion (both of which are almost confirmed locks), I don't see how it's the dark horse.
I haven't seen Eyes of tammy Faye but anything Jessica touches turns into gold, since 2013 she should be an Oscar winner but still not. This must be her time already!
Im currently watching all best actress films. Its an eh film but her performance is great. Stewart did it better this time around. If you wanna award for career over this specific performance than go Chastain. But Stewart felt like Di and felt like true royalty it didnt even feel like Stewart. That movie was also eh but her performance was off the charts.
I think a win for Olivia Colman is highly likely. They nominated Jessie Buckley in supporting so there is love for the acting in "The Lost Daughter." And people totally LOVE Olivia Colman. She gives a great acceptance speech.
I agree with your thinking! We know multiple wins in short succession can happen for the Academy’s favourites, plus the nominees for Best Picture this year show us a voting body unafraid to forgo traditional Oscar-bait for more challenging films and performances. I wonder will this line of thinking catch on in the predictorati 🤔
It's likely, but the Oscar's will do their own thing. They could just randomly give it to Penelope, Chaistain or Stewart despite their films not being highly regarded. I remember last year when The Father overperformed, people thought Coleman would win. We won't know until they open the envelope.
Very possible. Then the winners in recent years would be like this: 2017: McDormand 2018: Colman 2019: Zellweger 2020: McDormand 2021: Colman Are there actresses other than McDormand and Colman? lol
I am not really a fan of repeat Oscar wins for one person. I am not completely against them I think more people should be recognized. Best actress has too many previous winners. I think best actor should have Bradley Cooper over Bardem .
In my opinion, the best actress is Jessica Chastain. She´s amazing in the eyes of tammt faye, I wasn't sure if she would get a nomination, but now i've high expectations that she will win.
8:04 I can name you at least 3 other performances by Jessica Chastain that would have deserved to win (some of which didn't even get nominated in the first place)
I love Jessica Chastain and I get so pissed at how often the academy ignores her. It's the same with Toni Collette. It's all politics. If Meryl Streep had been in Hereditary or Muriel's Wedding she would have gotten a nomination no matter what.
It feels like Will Smith has this locked up. The Academy definitely prefers acknowledging performances that reflect the LIFE of a real person vs a fictional character. The Power of the Dog is part fictional and part true story. That usually is a major turn off for Academy voters.
I hope that it will be an 1998 one when Shakespeare In Love won Best Picture over Saving Private Ryan and Gwyneth Paltrow won Best Actress over Cate Blanchett 🤣
Cinematography im going with Macbeth and in Makeup im going with Tammy Faye, and WIll Smith for actor. I have a feeling that Power of the Dog wont win best picture though, even though I think it should win. The academy usually doesnt give the best picture award to the most nominated movie of the year, cause they want to surprise everyone, so I think Dune is probably going to win BP. Its either Dune or Power of the Dog
It's interesting. Chastain and Garfield are so similar in that they're usually better than their fellow nominees or even most nominees yet continually get the shaft. Just as I hope Jessica Chastain will win I would prefer seeing Andrew Garfield win over Will Smith. I know, Will is an icon and he's black but, damn, Andrew acted the hell out of that movie.
In regard to best actress, the one who has gotten the most acclaim for her role is Chastain. Despite the movie being bad, I have not seen one bad review about her performance, most of it is raves if not all of it. None of the other actresses have that, I have seen some doubts for both Cruz and Colman and some bad for Stewart and quite a few for Kidman but none for Chastain despite the movie's mixed or bad reaction.
That's a great point actually! I haven't seen any negative reception to Cruz or Colman's work but I agree in that if any performance out of the 5 is close to being universally acclaimed, then it's easily Chastaine
Tammy Faye is critically mixed and did very badly at the box office. No Best Actress/Actor winner had this toxic combination. Chastain is 100% not winning. Also if Chastain had so much critical acclaim for her performance, why did she win like close to zero critics awards.
@@pb.j.1753 actually on metacritic scorecard she's at no.4. Kidman isn't even in the top 6. Chastain won North Carolina, Detroit, Houston and Las Vegas critics for her performance.
@@Starkardur Ok so how is she the "most acclaimed" when she is at no. 4 and won 3 critics awards compared to Kristen Stewart's 20+ critics awards? Your numbers make no sense.
Personally thought Cumberbatch was just ok. Emotion was good but accent was so wildly inconsistent it was distracting. Smith or Garfield were so much bigger standouts!
Until proven otherwise, I'm still predicting Smith for the Oscar. His speech at SAG is gonna help tremendously. He has been all over. He literally just had a big premiere for his Fresh Prince reboot. I think he knows what he is doing. The academy also loves giving more love to other movies other than the front runner so they're gonna wanna give KR something.
100%. Will Smith was overexposing himself at first so he fell back since the nomination was guaranteed. He’s about to come back hard on the campaigning.
@@brendanlittle2498 most definitely. He's been pretty low key lately but even he knows his true strength is his charisma and he can give a great charismatic speech at SAG. It's REALLY over if he somehow pulls the upset at BAFTA. The film really over performed there, which is another reason why I think Smith still has this. Similar voting bodies.
Will smith has skipped many of that exposing actors things like showing up on the cover of magazines, having acting talks with other actors, etc. on the other hands, benedict just showed up on superbowl with his doctor strange trailer showing range of his 3 versions of himself, the main topic of netflix queue, shows up on vanity fair, and his film rises up again to #2 most popular of the week. His campaign is just as perfect as it can get so I think y'all just have to watch out.
West Side story debuts on Disney+ during the first week of March. Is there any chance that helps it pick up steam at the Oscars? I figure a lot of people will watch it that didn’t go see it in the theaters
@@pb.j.1753 It’s so weird how some people treat the Oscar now, they’re so traumatized by Green Book still that they’re completely ignoring the last two winners, pls tell me the last two winners were normal so I can laugh.
@@kevinkongtorres1654 Green Book winning was great. I loved how upset ppl were that Roma didnt win. I would have preferred Lala Land the next year and Parasyte I was happy for. Power of the Dog feels like it has too much momentum. But if its under the 50% mark then anything can happen. The drama of the preferential balloting for best picture makes it so much fun. The ppl who dont vote for PotD as number 1 will def not have it as number 2. Ppl either love it or hate it. So if its under 50% then I honestly feel like Dunes gonna win. Hear me out. Itll have a lot of technical ppl voting for it and I feel like its gotta love from other directors and actors. I could see it being a lot of ppls number 2 choice.
@@blackforest825 The movie might not be amazing but allegedly they give the oscar to the actress based on their development carrer and Stewart has prove that she is so much more than just Twilight so fingers crossed
Based on the nominations, I'm going to bet the Oscars will do something wild. They're going against precursors and doing their own thing. Categories like Director, international feature are locked. But I can see them rewarding a random Best Actress winner or even Picture despite The Power of the Dog's overperformance.
My thoughts exactly. We’ve seen heavyweights like La La Land and Roma get absolutely finessed by smaller, yet still competitive movies which creep out of nowhere. Moonlight had the passion/critical acclaim going for it and Green Book was a crowd pleaser which ticked the Oscar boxes. This year, I would not be surprised if Belfast does come out on top or even something wild like Licorice Pizza. West Side Story also has a shot since GG already gave it comedy/musical
It’d be easier to go wild if they changed their nominations and final voting schedules. The problem is that pretty much every other guild and critics group will adjust accordingly-some might even say parasitically.
the way i see it i feel like they'll give it to will smith simply bc this may be their only shot whereas andrew garfield will most definitely put in another oscar worthy performance (probably in the next 5 years even) HOWEVER i don't think andrew will ever feel as closely connected to a character or film than he did with tick tick boom also he has emotional ties to the movie too so it just makes me sad that he won't get rewarded for this it just feels..../right/ to give it to him just because it would be a beautiful moment for him...like i know his speech would be incredible.
I love your analyses. I'm feeling a smidgen adventurous, so I predict that the most critically acclaimed film of 2021 (as per Metacritic), Drive My Car, is the dark horse for winning Best Picture (despite the lack of acting nominations, and the more significant absence of a film editing nomination). I don't feel dangerous enough to predict it will win. I agree that The Power of the Dog appears to be the favoured winner. Will you be covering the Annie Awards? Raya and the Last Dragon has the most nominations in the film category for this year.
@@AvinashNicholas You right You right. I honestly didnt watch last years Oscars so its skipped in ky head. I had nothing I really cared about or rooted for. I am far more invested this time. But also you think a foreign film would win twice in 3 years after not winning before ever? Sorry its a 1 and done. I doubt youll see a foreign film win again in the next decade let alone this year.
@@The0Kiyubii0Kid I forgot what won last year. I had to look it up. I was rooting for Minari. We shall see what happens this year. If I remember correctly, Parasite was the dark horse in 2020 and it was a surprise when it won (I was rooting for Joker to win, based on my preference, but Parasite was my second choice to win).
Best Actress is so up in the air, there’s no one I’m completely confident will win... but I’m going with Kristen Stewart. She’s been the front runner from the beginning, people really love her performance, and to top it off she’ll probably win Critics Choice. The SAG snub does hurt her chances a little, but I don’t think it kills her
Hoping Dune sweeps the below the line categories (like Mad Max: Fury Road *mostly* did) Hoping it’s a Picture/Director split - mainly because I personally want a more crowd pleaser film to win Best Picture. But I’m fine with Campion taking director. Hoping Will Smith wins!
but screenplay tends to go to the more trendy/avante gard types (Licorice)... Juno, etc. And don't count out Gyllenhaal for screenplay- they LOVE actors in other categories- Affleck/Damon, etc.
Thats because he didnt deserve to win for The Social Network. It annoys me when people say someone deserves an Oscar. You have to win in a specific year and just be honest there was stronger competition that year.
The way the preferential ballot works is that the winner has to get 50% of all the votes. If no film hits 50% from the #1 votes, they go to the #2 votes, then they keep going down the list until one film gets 50%. That’s how “Green Book” beats “Roma”. It’s also how PoTD will hav a hard time winning. Another top contender needs to make itself prominent tho, which if that fails to happen… a “Nomadland” situation happens and the non crowd-pleaser takes it.
Yup, but Nomadland did have a modicum of likability due to its hopeful message, and there was no widely-favored crowd pleaser in the pandemic-laden year of indie films as its competition. It was also a shorter and easier to digest film than the painfully slow and creepily unpleasant PoTD. Some of the films released this year have performed well at the box office (Dune) or have directors with considerable industry respect (PTA/Licorice Pizza) or are just well crafted and palatable for just about anyone (Belfast). Heck, don't count out Drive My Car, which seems like its on the fast track and coming from behind (pun intended!).
I do believe PotD will have some trouble with the Preferential ballot system. But, at this moment it's a strong contender. The best thing right now is to see what happens at PGA. They also use the Preferential ballot 🗳
Will Smith is definitely winning Best Actor . Nicole Kidman for Best Actress. Aunjunae Eliss for Best Supporting Actress. King Richard/West Side Story for Best Picture and Be Alive for Best Original Song.
Here are my predictions to win: Best Picture: Nightmare Alley or West Side Story Best Director: Steven Spielberg- West Side Story or Jane Campion- The Power of the Dog Best Actor: Andrew Garfield- Tick, Tick… BOOM! Best Actress: Kristen Stewart- Spencer Best Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit- McPhee - The Power of the Dog Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose- West Side Story/ Kristen Dunst- The Power of the Dog Best Original Screenplay: Adam McKay- Don’t Look Up/ Kenneth Branagh- Belfast Best Adapted Screenplays: Dune or The Lost Daughter (Tied) Best Animated Feature Film: Encanto/ The Mitchells vs The Machines (Tied) Best International Feature Film: Drive My Car Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) - Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, and David Dinerstein Best Documentary Short Subject: The Queen of Basketball Best Animated Short Film: Robin Robin Best Original Score: Dune- Hans Zimmer/ Encanto- Germaine Franco Best Original Song: No Time To Die- Billie Eilish & Finneas O’ Connell Best Sound: No Time To Die Best Production Design: Nightmare Alley Best Cinematography: Dune Best Hairstyling and Makeup: Cruella/ House of Gucci Best Costume Design: Cruella Best Film Editing: Tick… Tick… BOOM! Best Visual Effects: Spider-Man: No Way Home or Free Guy or Shang-Chi and The Legends of the Ten Rings (Definitely Spider-Man: No Way Home. Marvel needs a chance to win for Best Visual Effects. They also should’ve won for Avengers: Endgame back in 2020, but the Academy just had to screw this up by announcing 1917 the winner) I really hope they won
Watched the lost daughter again. Think Olivia Coleman is being underestimated. She was superb. I loved her subtle authentic Yorkshire accent in her performance bearing in mind her character originally came from leeds.
My arguments for Colman: 1) Performance that would be far stronger than Kidman and Chastain with an INTERNATIONAL voting body 2) Film got most overall support out of the actress contenders 3) Netflix campaign priority in that category 4) Keeps upsetting at awards ceremonies
You’ve got me convinced; TLD and BTR both have three nominations but TLD has screenplay and a supp acting nomination that came out of nowhere; Netflix definitely doesn’t hurt
West Side Story could win PGA. That wouldn't affect any other awards but it could happen. (Does Spielberg have more nominations as a producer than as a director? I'm not sure. I know he has 11 best picture noms.)
Ok Part of me feels that the Billie Eilish song is just so old, that Encanto is gonna take it. Like it came out two years ago at this point where the hype around it has long past. Where Encato, especially the soundtrack, is really having a moment the same way Frozen did.
I'm bingewatching all of the nominated films for the Oscars this year right now, and I so wish that it doesn't win a single award. The clearest Oscar-bait I've seen in recent years.
Idk why but I have a really good feeling about Drive My Car to pick up steam and maybe get an upset win in a category. Yes, it doesn't have the editing nom, but I think it wasn't considered bc the lack of access to the film. The BP screeners and actually having ppl see the movie might really have it pick up steam and be a legit contender since all of the other runner up choices to Power Of The Dog seem pretty weak currently
I’d be fs picking stewart if the film also got some craft nominations that it should’ve gotten like costume, score, cinematography, or makeup. But ppl loveeee Nicole and she has the case for a second win among the industry.
My predictions to win: Best picture- Belfast Best director- Jane Campion- the power of the dog; Best actor- Andrew Garfield -tick tick boom; Best actriss- Jessica Chastain -the eyes of tammy faye; Best supporting actor- kodi Smith-mcpee -the power of the dog; Best supporting actris- ariana debose west side story
I think Alex Wolff in 'PIG' was alot better than K.S. McPhee and should've got the Nom for Supporting, but PIG didn't even get a look-in! I also thought PIG was way better than 'The Dog'... What do you guys think?
Production Design used to be Art Direction- the artsy period pieces used to always win this and costumes... probably most changed category- not just its name.
I could see this, it's got the highest box office of all the best picture noms, has the second most amount of nominations, The Power of the Dog and others could split the "critical darling" vote and then Dune could end up winning. What a twist it would be!
Picture-King Richard(I'm just not sold Netflix will ever win BP but I'm probably wrong, Belfast is my 2nd) Director-Jane Campion Actress-Kidman Actor-Cumberbatch Supporting Actress-DeBose Supporting Actor-Kotsur(IDK I just have a gut feeling Kodi won't win despite deserving it) OSP-Belfast ASP-The Power of the Dog
She already won an oscar, so the urgency isnt really there for her to win again. I think its one of those "the nomination is enough of a win" for that movie and performance.
@@josephmanning3179 I know she’s won before but so have Kidman and Coleman. I think this lineup makes compelling arguments for and against all the nominees. I have no idea who will win
@@josephmanning3179 Urgency to win is not a real thing to me. Everyone said that about McDormand in Nomadland who won more recently than Cruz. And has won twice before.
I think so. Being nominated without any precursor must mean something. These guys have never talked about parallel mothers or penelope´s performance. I think they might have not watched it. By the way, after watching these five performances, i think penelope´s one is one of the best performances.
I personally believe that the best actress can go to anyone at this point. I think every actress would have a reason to win, but we'll see what happens.
I truly believe that Andrew Garfield deserves to win this ask her I had a feeling he might pull off the upset it was the best performance all year for an actor. His performance he sings he acts shows emotion. I really hope they give it to him because of the performance. Will Smith is good in the movie but there were times when the characters starting to annoy me. He genuinely pulls off the roll well but again I wasn’t impressed with the movie as much as I was impressed with Tik Tik Boom
@@mathemachickenmadge2963 There's a big chance that it will, I remember Nomadland was the frontrunner the whole season and at the end they gave it to The Father, which was more loved by audiences, the same as CODA is.
The Academy looks like they’re trying to spread the love this year, and if PotD is for sure winning one category, might as well give another to someone else.
Troy's character leaves you as moved as Kodi's.It's a tough one to predict but I'm hoping for Troy. Being a more seasoned actor a good Oscar moment..and it may be all CODA gets.
I just don’t think CODA wins anything, doesn’t feel like the movie is all that loved, they liked it obviously, but it feels like a film that is just there for the ride nothing more, it only got 3 noms for a reason, I don’t think is meant to get anything.
Andrew/Will, Kristen/Jessica, Troy/Kodi, Jessie (Ariana has very less screen time compared to Jessie) , Power of the Dog/Drive My Car, Jane, Luca, etc are some I’m rooting for…
@@kevinkongtorres1654 especially with only 2 noms still scored a BP nom. I mean CODA naturally won't do well in technical categories anyway. and tbh fewer noms of the film only help Kotsur win.
As much as I think that Power of the Dog is a lock for Best Picture, I can't wrap up my head around that movie winning on a preferential ballot. If it does, then the Academy has really changed since the inclusion of the new membership.
I don't think it's obvious AT ALL that The Power of the Dog is winning. So many movies overperform on Oscar nom morning and so many have the "most" noms over other films and don't go on to win BP because of the preferential voting. Lincoln, TCCOBB, The Revenant, La La Land, 1917, among others, surprised BIG TIME on Oscar nom morning and ... look what happened. Belfast missed a few things, but many Best Picture winners have missed something(s). Belfast has Picture, PGA nom, Director, DGA nom, SAG Ensemble nom (that TPOTD missed), all the requisite BAFTA nods it needs, Writing nom (potential winner), and then some slight surprises in Sound and Song below the line. You just can't count it out. I could be dead wrong, but I just think you're really jumping the gun, here.
Jessica Chastain did such a beautiful job in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Nicole did great in Lucy but Jessica moved me and did such a lovely job. Kristen was amazing in Spencer but the movie was meh. Jessica clearly had to walk, talk and portray such a lively character and just did the best job. An Oscar well deserved!!
I know Dune is the favorite to win Cinematography but I'm still holding my breath for West Side Story. But maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part
After seeing Being the Ricardos I can't belief Javier Bardem and Nicole Kidman are nominated... I really disliked the movie and the performances were so so. I personally loved Licorice Pizza so in my opinion it would have been more deserved if Alana Haim was in the best actress category and Cooper Hofman in the best supporting actor category/best actor, (which one does his performance fit in?) because he could easily replace J.K Simmon's place for his insignificant performance, as well as Javier Bardem's for his insignificant performance. Hoping Kristen Stewart takes home the Oscar for best actress (what a character arc would that be for her), and quite sure Benedict will take home the Oscar for best actor. As for best supporting actor I'm rooting for Troy Kotsur cause his performance made me cry, although I would also be happy if Kodi Smit-Mcphee wins.
While it does look like Jane Campion will win both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, consider this: the last time someone won both Director and Screenplay without a co-writer was the Coen Brothers for No Country for Old Men... last year you guys were fervently predicting Chloe Zhao for Adapted Screenplay as well as Director, which always felt wrong to me for this same reason, and the The Father took Adapted Screenplay while Zhao took Director. I wonder if the same thing will happen this year and Drive My Car might take Adapted Screenplay (or Campion will win Adapted Screenplay and will signal a possible upset in Director)... I'm also predicting Power of the Dog for Cinematography, since I do think that film will be winning something below the line (the last Best Picture winner to win a below-the-line category was The Shape of Water, which had 13 nominations... of course, the counter-argument there is The King's Speech, which got 12 nominations and only won Screenplay, Actor, Director and Picture)...
Drive my car will win best picture and best director. Save this comment. I don’t know why you’re underestimating that film so much, but it’s gonna win.
I don’t think a Netflix film wins best picture for a while. Streamers don’t have to face box office fire. It’s what kills films chances when they flop. Until Netflix lets a film go through a big theatrical 45 day window, it won’t win. Spielberg agrees. Haha.
Colman has a very small outside shot. She hasn’t one any major awards and even missed at baftas. she’s also missed multiple critics nominations where the other 4 all got them. why would she win😂like where’s the evidence for that
@@jackvlahos5097 1. They all missed BAFTA. 2. Only Kidman has won a major award (Globes) and Cruz (Venice). 3. Colman is #2 on Metacritic. Only Stewart has more critics mentions. Her film arguably did the best with nominations among the actresses and she’s extremely popular in the industry right now. Those are strong positives for her in a tight race.
SPENCER was ROBBED of nominations! Should’ve been nominated for Best picture Best music score Best costume Best director Kristen DESERVES the Best Actress Oscar.
Greenwood should have been nominated for Spencer over PotD. The latter is largely Morricone riffs, the former is actually genuinely innovative and creative with the baroque/free jazz crosspollination.
Do you know of a website that shows the nominations broken down by film? For example, "King Richard" was nominated for 6 Oscars (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Film Editing, Screenplay, Original Song). On the official Oscars website, they usually have a PDF document that lists the nominations by category, and then by film. I can't find it this year.
Strange as it may seem, Drive My Car actually has a great shot at winning Adapted Screenplay after winning several major screenplay awards from the critics (London, NSFC, Boston, LA and more). Dog probably still has it, but it wouldn't surprise me if DMC sneaks in there and takes it. There's clearly love for the film with it getting the additional nods for Picture and Director (International Film was pretty obvious), so again, wouldn't surprise me if this is where they choose to honor it.
I would say it's Number 2 at this point. But a distant #2, I'm afraid. It's just simple math, a lot more people would have seen Dog than DMC.
@@TimeIdle Possibly. If it weren't for the other major nominations DMC got, I would say it doesn't stand a chance, but with it getting in for BP, clearly a lot of people have seen it, and those who haven't probably/hopefully will.
This awards aren't voted by critics. There's contenders very strong like Coda and Lost Daughter
@@igorsilva3657 These are voted on by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Was there some confusion about that? CODA and Lost Daughter aren't very strong contenders because they've had no momentum throughout the season (Lost Daughter has only won screenplay awards at Venice and the Gotham Awards, while CODA has won two from very minor groups). DMC has been very popular throughout and has shown that big, important groups find it to be the best screenplay of the year (ie not just adapted), hence why it's in a very strong 2nd place right now behind Power of the Dog, and could very well take it.
@@igorsilva3657 Drive My Car is also a strong contender for a screenplay. It literally won Best Screenplay at the Cannes Film Festival so that movie has a shot too
Chastain has the narrative of the transformation. Shes been doing a lot of press. Shes a hardworking actress that has been around for a long time.
Dune for VFX is the biggest lock of the night, I 100% agree. I also predicted it for like, every technical category but I haven't seen many of the other nominees so I may be wrong
1 Dune
2 Spider-Man No Way Home
3 No Time To Die
4 Shang-Chi
5 Free Guy
I thought the idea of K Stew winning an Oscar was nauseating.... until I saw Spencer. She deserves that award 100%. I've been converted from a hater to a stan!
I so badly wish that Jessica Chastain would walk home with the Oscar She's such a great actress so versatile she's just like Tilda Swinton she completely transforms into a whole other person. I'm still upset she lost Jennifer Lawrence I mean come on
Don't worry. She is a great actress and her oscar Win it's only a matter of time.
Jessica Chastain is no Tilda Swinton.. Like plssssssss
I agree. Jessica Chastain ain't like Tilda because Jessica does not look like a lizard.
let's goooo, I wasnt expecting for a prediction so early! thanks guys!
At any given Sunday, I would not be surprise if Drive My Car would be the dark horse for Best Picture. As for Best lead actress, I'm pulling for Kristen Stewart. Actor will go to Will Smith. But then again, who knows...
I can’t pick a for sure thing for Best Actor anymore after people were so sure that Boseman was winning last year.
@@zr5858 we shall see based on the BAFTA win.
It won't win. I wish it could be a threat, but Drive My Car missing out on that Editing nomination is a HUGE reason why. No film, (with the exception of Birdman due to its one take gimmick, and the same almost happened with 1917) has ever won Best Picture without a nomination for Best Editing since Ordinary People back in 1980. I know stats are meant to eventually be broken (like The Shape of Water did with the SAG Ensemble nom stat), but Drive My Car still needed more nominations than the ones it received. It'd be a great surprise if it did win, but The Power of the Dog is winning Best Picture in a cake walk since Belfast and West Side Story also missed out on that editing nomination. That doesn't mean Dune or King Richard have a chance either as nether of them received a Director nom (even though I know Argo and Green Book broke that stat as well). I'd love to be wrong, but I would definitely not bet on it.
I don’t know - I think Drive My Car is a critical darling that would make a great choice for BP (similar to Roma!) but it doesn’t have the crowd pleaser vibe *as much* as Parasite did. So I think it’s more likely to fall under a Roma situation.
For Parasite, it had the precursor of being the first foreign film in history to get nom'd and win the SAG Ensemble, and tied BP with 1917 at CC.
What does Drive My Car have that could topple PotD, a movie that showed up everywhere it needed PLUS acting noms for ALL its players (and Prod Design for some reason)
I'd say Dune and its 10 noms is the actual dark horse (despite most of them being techs and Director missing) or CODA (which showed up everywhere it was predicted to, including a Best Supporting slot that could be a win)
If Don't Look Up somehow, somehow takes home Editing and Screenplay it will also be a very probable dark horse.
Unless DMC miraculously steals both Director and Screenplay from Campion (both of which are almost confirmed locks), I don't see how it's the dark horse.
I haven't seen Eyes of tammy Faye but anything Jessica touches turns into gold, since 2013 she should be an Oscar winner but still not.
This must be her time already!
Im currently watching all best actress films. Its an eh film but her performance is great. Stewart did it better this time around. If you wanna award for career over this specific performance than go Chastain. But Stewart felt like Di and felt like true royalty it didnt even feel like Stewart. That movie was also eh but her performance was off the charts.
I think a win for Olivia Colman is highly likely. They nominated Jessie Buckley in supporting so there is love for the acting in "The Lost Daughter." And people totally LOVE Olivia Colman. She gives a great acceptance speech.
I agree with your thinking!
We know multiple wins in short succession can happen for the Academy’s favourites, plus the nominees for Best Picture this year show us a voting body unafraid to forgo traditional Oscar-bait for more challenging films and performances.
I wonder will this line of thinking catch on in the predictorati 🤔
There is also a screenplay nomination for The Lost Daughter. That makes it more likely people will make a point to watch it.
It's likely, but the Oscar's will do their own thing. They could just randomly give it to Penelope, Chaistain or Stewart despite their films not being highly regarded. I remember last year when The Father overperformed, people thought Coleman would win. We won't know until they open the envelope.
Very possible. Then the winners in recent years would be like this:
2017: McDormand
2018: Colman
2019: Zellweger
2020: McDormand
2021: Colman
Are there actresses other than McDormand and Colman? lol
I am not really a fan of repeat Oscar wins for one person. I am not completely against them I think more people should be recognized. Best actress has too many previous winners. I think best actor should have Bradley Cooper over Bardem .
I genuinely hope that Andrew Garfield upsets everything and wins best actor. I will be so happy if he wins.
Yesssss
I liked his performance more than Will Smith's.
No, Will Smith deserves it more. We award the performance not the popularity.
@@madman00774 Umm people wanting Andrew Garfield to win for tick tick boom is not based on popularity 🙄🤦♀️
Andrew said on the Graham Norton show if he wins the Oscar he will do strictly/dancing with the stars
I want DGA to be gutsy and give the win to Denis Villeneuve making oscars best director nominations ridiculous!
They're not snubbing Campion. If the front runner was a man, I could see it. But they're not snubbing the woman. That would make them look bad.
In my opinion, the best actress is Jessica Chastain. She´s amazing in the eyes of tammt faye, I wasn't sure if she would get a nomination, but now i've high expectations that she will win.
I can't wait to see it. She's been doing great work for some time now
i love to be right LMAO. Even before the SAG result
8:04 I can name you at least 3 other performances by Jessica Chastain that would have deserved to win (some of which didn't even get nominated in the first place)
I love Jessica Chastain and I get so pissed at how often the academy ignores her. It's the same with Toni Collette. It's all politics. If Meryl Streep had been in Hereditary or Muriel's Wedding she would have gotten a nomination no matter what.
It feels like Will Smith has this locked up.
The Academy definitely prefers acknowledging performances that reflect the LIFE of a real person vs a fictional character. The Power of the Dog is part fictional and part true story. That usually is a major turn off for Academy voters.
Idk how true that is to be honest. But Will Smith does feel like a lock, which I hope he wins!
Can we get another Oscar’s retrospective please? they are the best
Probably in a few months
I hope that it will be an 1998 one when Shakespeare In Love won Best Picture over Saving Private Ryan and Gwyneth Paltrow won Best Actress over Cate Blanchett 🤣
Cinematography im going with Macbeth and in Makeup im going with Tammy Faye, and WIll Smith for actor. I have a feeling that Power of the Dog wont win best picture though, even though I think it should win. The academy usually doesnt give the best picture award to the most nominated movie of the year, cause they want to surprise everyone, so I think Dune is probably going to win BP. Its either Dune or Power of the Dog
It's interesting. Chastain and Garfield are so similar in that they're usually better than their fellow nominees or even most nominees yet continually get the shaft. Just as I hope Jessica Chastain will win I would prefer seeing Andrew Garfield win over Will Smith. I know, Will is an icon and he's black but, damn, Andrew acted the hell out of that movie.
If this turns out to be a repeat of last year where the winner was based on merit / performance then Andrew Garfield should win Best Actor by a mile.
Olivia Colman winning her first Oscar: "This is not gonna happen again!"
The Academy: "...Wanna bet?"
In regard to best actress, the one who has gotten the most acclaim for her role is Chastain. Despite the movie being bad, I have not seen one bad review about her performance, most of it is raves if not all of it. None of the other actresses have that, I have seen some doubts for both Cruz and Colman and some bad for Stewart and quite a few for Kidman but none for Chastain despite the movie's mixed or bad reaction.
That's a great point actually! I haven't seen any negative reception to Cruz or Colman's work but I agree in that if any performance out of the 5 is close to being universally acclaimed, then it's easily Chastaine
Tammy Faye is critically mixed and did very badly at the box office. No Best Actress/Actor winner had this toxic combination. Chastain is 100% not winning.
Also if Chastain had so much critical acclaim for her performance, why did she win like close to zero critics awards.
@@pb.j.1753 actually on metacritic scorecard she's at no.4. Kidman isn't even in the top 6. Chastain won North Carolina, Detroit, Houston and Las Vegas critics for her performance.
@@Starkardur Ok so how is she the "most acclaimed" when she is at no. 4 and won 3 critics awards compared to Kristen Stewart's 20+ critics awards? Your numbers make no sense.
For Makeup, even more impressive than Jared Leto, was all the prosthetics on Stellan Skarsgard in Dune
everytime I came to this category, I always remember this prosthetic, like there is no way any other things beat it
Personally thought Cumberbatch was just ok. Emotion was good but accent was so wildly inconsistent it was distracting.
Smith or Garfield were so much bigger standouts!
Until proven otherwise, I'm still predicting Smith for the Oscar. His speech at SAG is gonna help tremendously. He has been all over. He literally just had a big premiere for his Fresh Prince reboot. I think he knows what he is doing. The academy also loves giving more love to other movies other than the front runner so they're gonna wanna give KR something.
100%. Will Smith was overexposing himself at first so he fell back since the nomination was guaranteed. He’s about to come back hard on the campaigning.
@@brendanlittle2498 I don't know but by reading the way you mentioned "overexposing", it really reminds me of gaga snub lmao
@@brendanlittle2498 most definitely. He's been pretty low key lately but even he knows his true strength is his charisma and he can give a great charismatic speech at SAG. It's REALLY over if he somehow pulls the upset at BAFTA. The film really over performed there, which is another reason why I think Smith still has this. Similar voting bodies.
Will Smith Will Definitely Get His First Oscar This Year Watch and See 🥇⭐️🙌🏾🤙🏾💯
Will smith has skipped many of that exposing actors things like showing up on the cover of magazines, having acting talks with other actors, etc. on the other hands, benedict just showed up on superbowl with his doctor strange trailer showing range of his 3 versions of himself, the main topic of netflix queue, shows up on vanity fair, and his film rises up again to #2 most popular of the week. His campaign is just as perfect as it can get so I think y'all just have to watch out.
West Side story debuts on Disney+ during the first week of March. Is there any chance that helps it pick up steam at the Oscars? I figure a lot of people will watch it that didn’t go see it in the theaters
Uhm this is not the People‘s Choice Awards
@@pb.j.1753 It’s so weird how some people treat the Oscar now, they’re so traumatized by Green Book still that they’re completely ignoring the last two winners, pls tell me the last two winners were normal so I can laugh.
I thought all of the voters get screeners
@@kevinkongtorres1654 Green Book winning was great. I loved how upset ppl were that Roma didnt win. I would have preferred Lala Land the next year and Parasyte I was happy for.
Power of the Dog feels like it has too much momentum. But if its under the 50% mark then anything can happen. The drama of the preferential balloting for best picture makes it so much fun. The ppl who dont vote for PotD as number 1 will def not have it as number 2. Ppl either love it or hate it. So if its under 50% then I honestly feel like Dunes gonna win. Hear me out. Itll have a lot of technical ppl voting for it and I feel like its gotta love from other directors and actors. I could see it being a lot of ppls number 2 choice.
I really hope Kristen Stewart wins but yes, this category is fuckery
The category is shit. Stewart probably gave the best performance, but even that movie isn't that amazing.
@@blackforest825 The movie might not be amazing but allegedly they give the oscar to the actress based on their development carrer and Stewart has prove that she is so much more than just Twilight so fingers crossed
@@ruben95200 I liked the movie a lot actually too
@@blackforest825 yes it was
And so crazy 😂😂😂😂😂
Based on the nominations, I'm going to bet the Oscars will do something wild. They're going against precursors and doing their own thing. Categories like Director, international feature are locked. But I can see them rewarding a random Best Actress winner or even Picture despite The Power of the Dog's overperformance.
My thoughts exactly. We’ve seen heavyweights like La La Land and Roma get absolutely finessed by smaller, yet still competitive movies which creep out of nowhere. Moonlight had the passion/critical acclaim going for it and Green Book was a crowd pleaser which ticked the Oscar boxes. This year, I would not be surprised if Belfast does come out on top or even something wild like Licorice Pizza. West Side Story also has a shot since GG already gave it comedy/musical
It’d be easier to go wild if they changed their nominations and final voting schedules.
The problem is that pretty much every other guild and critics group will adjust accordingly-some might even say parasitically.
Chastain gonna win Best Actress :) Hopefully...literally any other film can beat Power of the Dog for Picture.
I really hope Kristen Stewart wins. Her performance in Spencer was captivating.
the way i see it i feel like they'll give it to will smith simply bc this may be their only shot whereas andrew garfield will most definitely put in another oscar worthy performance (probably in the next 5 years even) HOWEVER i don't think andrew will ever feel as closely connected to a character or film than he did with tick tick boom also he has emotional ties to the movie too so it just makes me sad that he won't get rewarded for this it just feels..../right/ to give it to him just because it would be a beautiful moment for him...like i know his speech would be incredible.
I hope Belfast gets something at the oscars it was my favourite film of this awards season!!!!
I love your analyses. I'm feeling a smidgen adventurous, so I predict that the most critically acclaimed film of 2021 (as per Metacritic), Drive My Car, is the dark horse for winning Best Picture (despite the lack of acting nominations, and the more significant absence of a film editing nomination). I don't feel dangerous enough to predict it will win. I agree that The Power of the Dog appears to be the favoured winner.
Will you be covering the Annie Awards? Raya and the Last Dragon has the most nominations in the film category for this year.
The Oscars arent going two foreign films in a row.
@@The0Kiyubii0Kid But a USA film won last year. Nomadland. Parasite won Best Film the year before. 🙂
@@AvinashNicholas You right You right. I honestly didnt watch last years Oscars so its skipped in ky head. I had nothing I really cared about or rooted for. I am far more invested this time. But also you think a foreign film would win twice in 3 years after not winning before ever? Sorry its a 1 and done. I doubt youll see a foreign film win again in the next decade let alone this year.
@@The0Kiyubii0Kid I forgot what won last year. I had to look it up. I was rooting for Minari. We shall see what happens this year. If I remember correctly, Parasite was the dark horse in 2020 and it was a surprise when it won (I was rooting for Joker to win, based on my preference, but Parasite was my second choice to win).
Best Actress is so up in the air, there’s no one I’m completely confident will win... but I’m going with Kristen Stewart. She’s been the front runner from the beginning, people really love her performance, and to top it off she’ll probably win Critics Choice. The SAG snub does hurt her chances a little, but I don’t think it kills her
You guys are getting to technical with the lead actress race. What’s your gut feeling ???
And the Oscar goes to … Kristen Stewart
Hoping Dune sweeps the below the line categories (like Mad Max: Fury Road *mostly* did)
Hoping it’s a Picture/Director split - mainly because I personally want a more crowd pleaser film to win Best Picture. But I’m fine with Campion taking director.
Hoping Will Smith wins!
but screenplay tends to go to the more trendy/avante gard types (Licorice)... Juno, etc. And don't count out Gyllenhaal for screenplay- they LOVE actors in other categories- Affleck/Damon, etc.
Even though he might not win, I’m praying Andrew finally gets his Oscar after he didn’t get it for The Social Network
Thats because he didnt deserve to win for The Social Network. It annoys me when people say someone deserves an Oscar. You have to win in a specific year and just be honest there was stronger competition that year.
You guys… he wasn’t nominated for the social network, he was nominated for hacksaw ridge
I hope he wins for Tick, Tick… BOOM!
This is his best shot so far. Let's see what happens. I too loved him in Tick, Tick...Boom
Hans Zimmer should have a room full of Oscars ...
The way the preferential ballot works is that the winner has to get 50% of all the votes. If no film hits 50% from the #1 votes, they go to the #2 votes, then they keep going down the list until one film gets 50%. That’s how “Green Book” beats “Roma”. It’s also how PoTD will hav a hard time winning. Another top contender needs to make itself prominent tho, which if that fails to happen… a “Nomadland” situation happens and the non crowd-pleaser takes it.
Yup, but Nomadland did have a modicum of likability due to its hopeful message, and there was no widely-favored crowd pleaser in the pandemic-laden year of indie films as its competition. It was also a shorter and easier to digest film than the painfully slow and creepily unpleasant PoTD.
Some of the films released this year have performed well at the box office (Dune) or have directors with considerable industry respect (PTA/Licorice Pizza) or are just well crafted and palatable for just about anyone (Belfast). Heck, don't count out Drive My Car, which seems like its on the fast track and coming from behind (pun intended!).
I do believe PotD will have some trouble with the Preferential ballot system. But, at this moment it's a strong contender. The best thing right now is to see what happens at PGA. They also use the Preferential ballot 🗳
All actresses nominated in Best Actress Category are great but the battle is absolutely between Nicole Kidman and Kristen Stewart
West Side might surprise.
Not sure about Best Picture, but I feel like WSS is gonna win something besides Supporting Actress
I wanna be bold and say Drive My Car could surprise us. Those nominations are not insignificant.
Will Smith is definitely winning Best Actor . Nicole Kidman for Best Actress. Aunjunae Eliss for Best Supporting Actress. King Richard/West Side Story for Best Picture and Be Alive for Best Original Song.
Here are my predictions to win:
Best Picture: Nightmare Alley or West Side Story
Best Director: Steven Spielberg- West Side Story or Jane Campion- The Power of the Dog
Best Actor: Andrew Garfield- Tick, Tick… BOOM!
Best Actress: Kristen Stewart- Spencer
Best Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit- McPhee - The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose- West Side Story/ Kristen Dunst- The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay: Adam McKay- Don’t Look Up/ Kenneth Branagh- Belfast
Best Adapted Screenplays: Dune or The Lost Daughter (Tied)
Best Animated Feature Film: Encanto/ The Mitchells vs The Machines (Tied)
Best International Feature Film: Drive My Car
Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) - Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, and David Dinerstein
Best Documentary Short Subject:
The Queen of Basketball
Best Animated Short Film: Robin Robin
Best Original Score: Dune- Hans Zimmer/ Encanto- Germaine Franco
Best Original Song: No Time To Die- Billie Eilish & Finneas O’ Connell
Best Sound: No Time To Die
Best Production Design: Nightmare Alley
Best Cinematography: Dune
Best Hairstyling and Makeup: Cruella/ House of Gucci
Best Costume Design: Cruella
Best Film Editing: Tick… Tick… BOOM!
Best Visual Effects: Spider-Man: No Way Home or Free Guy or Shang-Chi and The Legends of the Ten Rings (Definitely Spider-Man: No Way Home. Marvel needs a chance to win for Best Visual Effects. They also should’ve won for Avengers: Endgame back in 2020, but the Academy just had to screw this up by announcing 1917 the winner)
I really hope they won
I have learned so much listening to you guys.
Watched the lost daughter again. Think Olivia Coleman is being underestimated. She was superb. I loved her subtle authentic Yorkshire accent in her performance bearing in mind her character originally came from leeds.
My arguments for Colman:
1) Performance that would be far stronger than Kidman and Chastain with an INTERNATIONAL voting body
2) Film got most overall support out of the actress contenders
3) Netflix campaign priority in that category
4) Keeps upsetting at awards ceremonies
You’ve got me convinced; TLD and BTR both have three nominations but TLD has screenplay and a supp acting nomination that came out of nowhere; Netflix definitely doesn’t hurt
Nice arguments. I like it
5) She didn't deserve the nomination. Jodie Comer did.
@@madman00774 Kidman didn't deserve the nom. Colman did.
West Side Story could win PGA. That wouldn't affect any other awards but it could happen.
(Does Spielberg have more nominations as a producer than as a director? I'm not sure. I know he has 11 best picture noms.)
Yes he does
Chastain and Garfield gave the best performances.
Facts!
Ok Part of me feels that the Billie Eilish song is just so old, that Encanto is gonna take it. Like it came out two years ago at this point where the hype around it has long past. Where Encato, especially the soundtrack, is really having a moment the same way Frozen did.
I know this is a looong shot, but I'm manifesting Dune for Best Picture.
I just saw power of the dog and wow... if that wins it will be one of the worst best picture winners
I'm bingewatching all of the nominated films for the Oscars this year right now, and I so wish that it doesn't win a single award. The clearest Oscar-bait I've seen in recent years.
Hopefully this year will be better than last year
@@dariussalepetru6770 I didnt even watch nomadland, seemed boring
My personal favorite out of all the best actress nominees is Jessica Chastian
Imma go Kristen Stewart on actress.. and also hope I'm right
Idk why but I have a really good feeling about Drive My Car to pick up steam and maybe get an upset win in a category. Yes, it doesn't have the editing nom, but I think it wasn't considered bc the lack of access to the film. The BP screeners and actually having ppl see the movie might really have it pick up steam and be a legit contender since all of the other runner up choices to Power Of The Dog seem pretty weak currently
I’d be fs picking stewart if the film also got some craft nominations that it should’ve gotten like costume, score, cinematography, or makeup. But ppl loveeee Nicole and she has the case for a second win among the industry.
My predictions to win:
Best picture- Belfast
Best director- Jane Campion- the power of the dog;
Best actor- Andrew Garfield -tick tick boom;
Best actriss- Jessica Chastain -the eyes of tammy faye;
Best supporting actor- kodi Smith-mcpee -the power of the dog;
Best supporting actris- ariana debose west side story
I would be happy with your picks
I think Alex Wolff in 'PIG' was alot better than K.S. McPhee and should've got the Nom for Supporting, but PIG didn't even get a look-in!
I also thought PIG was way better than 'The Dog'... What do you guys think?
I think Pig is highly overrated. I can barely remember it. I appreciated that it is just 90 min long though lol
@@pb.j.1753 Ha Haaa! I think the same for The Dog - did you appreciate A.Wolff?
Will is winning Best Actor
Production Design used to be Art Direction- the artsy period pieces used to always win this and costumes... probably most changed category- not just its name.
Wild prediction: Dune wins Best Picture
I could see this, it's got the highest box office of all the best picture noms, has the second most amount of nominations, The Power of the Dog and others could split the "critical darling" vote and then Dune could end up winning. What a twist it would be!
@@danielplainview2584do you have the same username on Awards watch forum? Hehe ! Great to see u here 😂😊
Picture-King Richard(I'm just not sold Netflix will ever win BP but I'm probably wrong, Belfast is my 2nd)
Director-Jane Campion
Actress-Kidman
Actor-Cumberbatch
Supporting Actress-DeBose
Supporting Actor-Kotsur(IDK I just have a gut feeling Kodi won't win despite deserving it)
OSP-Belfast
ASP-The Power of the Dog
I'm surprised no one is mentioning Penelope Cruz. This is her 4th nomination. I think she has a shot
She already won an oscar, so the urgency isnt really there for her to win again. I think its one of those "the nomination is enough of a win" for that movie and performance.
@@josephmanning3179 I know she’s won before but so have Kidman and Coleman. I think this lineup makes compelling arguments for and against all the nominees. I have no idea who will win
@@josephmanning3179 Urgency to win is not a real thing to me. Everyone said that about McDormand in Nomadland who won more recently than Cruz. And has won twice before.
I think so. Being nominated without any precursor must mean something. These guys have never talked about parallel mothers or penelope´s performance. I think they might have not watched it. By the way, after watching these five performances, i think penelope´s one is one of the best performances.
@@javiercachero7213 it isnt and that movie sucks
I personally believe that the best actress can go to anyone at this point. I think every actress would have a reason to win, but we'll see what happens.
I truly believe that Andrew Garfield deserves to win this ask her I had a feeling he might pull off the upset it was the best performance all year for an actor. His performance he sings he acts shows emotion. I really hope they give it to him because of the performance.
Will Smith is good in the movie but there were times when the characters starting to annoy me. He genuinely pulls off the roll well but again I wasn’t impressed with the movie as much as I was impressed with Tik Tik Boom
Drive my car is the biggest lock of the night in international feature, until the SAGS and the guilds, I don’t know who’s going to win.
I'm starting to think that CODA might win adapted screenplay.
Also I think Flee might win as well in Documentary
There’s no way it beats Power of the Dog my man
@@mathemachickenmadge2963 There's a big chance that it will, I remember Nomadland was the frontrunner the whole season and at the end they gave it to The Father, which was more loved by audiences, the same as CODA is.
Or Drive My Car
@@dariussalepetru6770 Maybe, but I feel like Drive My Car will only take Best International Film.
I think will Smith will win because if Kodi smit-McPhee is winning supporting actor I feel like they'll be less likely to vote for Cumberbatch.
The Academy looks like they’re trying to spread the love this year, and if PotD is for sure winning one category, might as well give another to someone else.
I honestly don't believe Kodu Smit-Mcphee will win best supporting actor.
It's insane that Judi Dench got nominated over Catrina Balfe
Tbh not really. I mean this is the same woman who won an Oscar in just 8 minutes lol.
Love the new aesthetic vibe
Troy's character leaves you as moved as Kodi's.It's a tough one to predict but I'm hoping for Troy. Being a more seasoned actor a good Oscar moment..and it may be all CODA gets.
I just don’t think CODA wins anything, doesn’t feel like the movie is all that loved, they liked it obviously, but it feels like a film that is just there for the ride nothing more, it only got 3 noms for a reason, I don’t think is meant to get anything.
I think there could be an upset with Troy winning at the SAGs. Just a feeling🤷♂️
I’m manifesting Kristen Stewart to win the oscar
I hope for that, but well knowing how she got snubed I feel she wont win but at least she got a nomination.
I am definitely agree with you . BRAVO KRISTEN STEWART❤
Same she was amazing
Andrew/Will, Kristen/Jessica, Troy/Kodi, Jessie (Ariana has very less screen time compared to Jessie) , Power of the Dog/Drive My Car, Jane, Luca, etc are some I’m rooting for…
*andrew garfield, beyoncé, & kristen stewart.* PLEASE OSCARS..
From what I gathered there’s a LOT of love for CODA in the academy. Troy Kotsur is a lock imo.
Interesting for a film that only got 3 noms.
@@kevinkongtorres1654 especially with only 2 noms still scored a BP nom. I mean CODA naturally won't do well in technical categories anyway. and tbh fewer noms of the film only help Kotsur win.
@@kevinkongtorres1654 well
As much as I think that Power of the Dog is a lock for Best Picture, I can't wrap up my head around that movie winning on a preferential ballot. If it does, then the Academy has really changed since the inclusion of the new membership.
Because got 12 nominations
I couldn’t wrap my head around the last two winners either, soooo…
I don't think it's obvious AT ALL that The Power of the Dog is winning. So many movies overperform on Oscar nom morning and so many have the "most" noms over other films and don't go on to win BP because of the preferential voting. Lincoln, TCCOBB, The Revenant, La La Land, 1917, among others, surprised BIG TIME on Oscar nom morning and ... look what happened.
Belfast missed a few things, but many Best Picture winners have missed something(s). Belfast has Picture, PGA nom, Director, DGA nom, SAG Ensemble nom (that TPOTD missed), all the requisite BAFTA nods it needs, Writing nom (potential winner), and then some slight surprises in Sound and Song below the line. You just can't count it out.
I could be dead wrong, but I just think you're really jumping the gun, here.
Well, Kidman also won AACTA.
Jessica Chastain did such a beautiful job in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Nicole did great in Lucy but Jessica moved me and did such a lovely job. Kristen was amazing in Spencer but the movie was meh. Jessica clearly had to walk, talk and portray such a lively character and just did the best job. An Oscar well deserved!!
I'm not feeling Dune winning film editing but feeling like it will sound
WONDERFUL SURPRISE UPLOAD! I would love to see “Nightmare Alley” take production design and cinematography.
Tammy Faye wins makeup to represent Chastain so that Stewart can win actress.
I know Dune is the favorite to win Cinematography but I'm still holding my breath for West Side Story. But maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part
I love the cinematography in Dune. But I agree, West Side is the best in my opinion, amazing work from Kaminski
Or The Power of the Dog. Ari Wegner is so cool
After seeing Being the Ricardos I can't belief Javier Bardem and Nicole Kidman are nominated... I really disliked the movie and the performances were so so. I personally loved Licorice Pizza so in my opinion it would have been more deserved if Alana Haim was in the best actress category and Cooper Hofman in the best supporting actor category/best actor, (which one does his performance fit in?) because he could easily replace J.K Simmon's place for his insignificant performance, as well as Javier Bardem's for his insignificant performance. Hoping Kristen Stewart takes home the Oscar for best actress (what a character arc would that be for her), and quite sure Benedict will take home the Oscar for best actor. As for best supporting actor I'm rooting for Troy Kotsur cause his performance made me cry, although I would also be happy if Kodi Smit-Mcphee wins.
I’m the exact opposite I loved The Ricardos and Licorice Pizza bored the shit out of me but that’s why I love the movies. Much respect
@@deanjackson9523 Interesting! Taste differs and that is okay. Much respect to you too!
While it does look like Jane Campion will win both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, consider this: the last time someone won both Director and Screenplay without a co-writer was the Coen Brothers for No Country for Old Men... last year you guys were fervently predicting Chloe Zhao for Adapted Screenplay as well as Director, which always felt wrong to me for this same reason, and the The Father took Adapted Screenplay while Zhao took Director. I wonder if the same thing will happen this year and Drive My Car might take Adapted Screenplay (or Campion will win Adapted Screenplay and will signal a possible upset in Director)... I'm also predicting Power of the Dog for Cinematography, since I do think that film will be winning something below the line (the last Best Picture winner to win a below-the-line category was The Shape of Water, which had 13 nominations... of course, the counter-argument there is The King's Speech, which got 12 nominations and only won Screenplay, Actor, Director and Picture)...
Cruz or Kidman ( spoiler : Chastain) and Smith or Cumberbatch (spoiler :Garfield)
It's Will Smith all the way and it already started at the Globes. Also he got his first BAFTA nom which Denzel did not even manage to get.
Smith has won all GG, SAG, BAFTA and Critics already
The only noms I wanted was woody Norman for bsa, and dune for everything, but my boy denis got snubbed for directing and woody was never getting in
Andrew Garfield and Olivia coleman!
Still praying for Garfield
No Us Again for animated short was shocking
Yeah I am so sad for Disney Animated short movie for Raya got snub
Belfast cannot be underestimated. You're doing just that.
yes it can
Drive my car will win best picture and best director. Save this comment. I don’t know why you’re underestimating that film so much, but it’s gonna win.
one thing you guys probably don't is how big Tammy Faye was in the 80s- SNL spoofed her multiple times- Jan Hooks was AMAZING!
When are you guys gonna do another Oscar retrospect?
I don’t think a Netflix film wins best picture for a while. Streamers don’t have to face box office fire. It’s what kills films chances when they flop. Until Netflix lets a film go through a big theatrical 45 day window, it won’t win. Spielberg agrees. Haha.
Yea. They refused to nominate 2 Netflix films for BP (TTB and POTD).
45 windows doesn't existe anymore. Even Warner and Disney are working with 30 days.
@@ellcally508 Don’t Look Up is a Netflix film and a BP nominee.
@@vickster5001 oh thanks.
@@ellcally508 WINS not get nominated - duh.
Nightmare needs 2 awards, Costume and Prod Design. Would love it if dark horse in Best Bic. Bradley was the biggest snub of nominations.
I really hope Will Smith wins Best Actor.
Olivia Colman is winning. I'm surprised you guys gave all those reasons for Kidman and her film, yet it is different with Colman and TLD.
Colman has a very small outside shot. She hasn’t one any major awards and even missed at baftas. she’s also missed multiple critics nominations where the other 4 all got them. why would she win😂like where’s the evidence for that
@@jackvlahos5097 1. They all missed BAFTA. 2. Only Kidman has won a major award (Globes) and Cruz (Venice). 3. Colman is #2 on Metacritic. Only Stewart has more critics mentions. Her film arguably did the best with nominations among the actresses and she’s extremely popular in the industry right now. Those are strong positives for her in a tight race.
Chastain winner
@@madisonb5933 chastain winner
My favorite actress is Penélope Cruz, I hope she surprises her.
SPENCER was ROBBED of nominations!
Should’ve been nominated for
Best picture
Best music score
Best costume
Best director
Kristen DESERVES the Best Actress Oscar.
Greenwood should have been nominated for Spencer over PotD. The latter is largely Morricone riffs, the former is actually genuinely innovative and creative with the baroque/free jazz crosspollination.
Do you know of a website that shows the nominations broken down by film? For example, "King Richard" was nominated for 6 Oscars (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Film Editing, Screenplay, Original Song). On the official Oscars website, they usually have a PDF document that lists the nominations by category, and then by film. I can't find it this year.