1:19 Best Picture 15:12 Best Director 23:06 Lead Actress 32:50 Lead Actor 37:21 Supporting Actress 45:23 Supporting Actor 52:04 Original Screenplay 55:01 Adapted Screenplay 58:03 International Feature 1:01:37 Documentary Feature 1:03:48 Animated Feature 1:04:15 Cinematography 1:08:41 Editing 1:12:03 Production Design 1:14:16 Costume Design 1:17:24 Makeup and Hairstyling 1:22:40 Visual Effects 1:28:40 Sound 1:31:48 Score 1:34:17 Song 1:38:28 Documentary Short 1:41:56 Animated Short 1:44:10 Live-action Short
This race started pretty conventional and has really dipped into “no set winners, it’s all over” which I think makes for a really fun race and watch. It’s better when it’s not a direct known sweep
this is gonna be the wildest nominations announcement yet. their reaction video is gonna be an all timer 1:19 Best Picture 15:12 Best Director 23:06 Lead Actress 32:50 Lead Actor 37:21 Supporting Actress 45:23 Supporting Actor 52:04 Original Screenplay 55:01 Adapted Screenplay 58:03 International Feature 1:01:37 Documentary Feature 1:03:48 Animated Feature 1:04:15 Cinematography 1:08:41 Editing 1:12:03 Production Design 1:14:16 Costume Design 1:17:24 Makeup and Hairstyling 1:22:40 Visual Effects 1:28:40 Sound 1:31:48 Score 1:34:17 Song 1:38:28 Documentary Short 1:41:56 Animated Short 1:44:10 Live-action Short
Remember when people were predicting double nominations for Saoirse ronan in best lead actress and best supporting actress for the outrun and blitz😂 What a time
@@tonyg76 From your comment I knew you haven't seen the film. If you haven't seen the film what you say something negative????? Embrace the films you like, leave the film you haven't seen. Unfair to say something negative for you haven.t seen . forget about what the others say.
Fun Fact: if Emilia Pérez Wins best pichure, with current Letterboxd score, it will be tied for the thrid with Cavalcade lowest rated best pichure on the site, with Cimarron and The Brodway Melody ranked lower. YES Crash, Green Book and The Greatest Show on Earth, have a higher ratting on letterboxd then Emilia Pérez !
Hopefully that won’t be the case ….choosing that atrocity of “movie” would tell us a lot about the idiocy and ignorance of the American academy .I know they are woke ..but taking that path would just close the coffin for cinema ….
@@notchuckproductions5029Emilia Perez has been mass bombed by Brazilians, Ariana Grande stans and Mexicans. Its Letterboxd score does not reflect how the industry/audience really feels about it.
I FEEL Brother bro talking about having lost the pulse of awards season. Everything is chaos and its wild! Not feeling too confident after winning the nominations challenge on the app last year 😭😭
should be 100k+ at this point edit: just in case SOME misunderstands my comment lol.. what i meant to say is they deserve to have 100k+ with all the content they're giving us.
Hollywood's continued push at giving Emilia Perez so many nominations just shows you how out of touch they are. They are voting for it solely for the fact that the story's about a trans woman but ignoring the fact that it's terrible and most audiences find it offensive. I feel bad for all the good foreign films this year that aren't getting as much love because of Emilia Perez.
Well, it's also a well established, auteur director making a deeply unconventional musical. On paper Emilia Perez sounds amazing, in reality not so much.
@@benjamintillema3572 musical? Those aren't songs in Emilia Perez, they are audio train wrecks. Film would have been better as a drama without those "songs".
I've met a few older people in the film industry (none of them Oscar voters, mind you) who think it's a brilliantly-made movie and think that those who find it offensive are exaggerating ("why does it matter that it's not 'authentic' to the Mexican or trans experience? It's a movie!"). I agree with you that it shouldn't be getting so much love, but from my admittedly anecdotal experience, it's a mischaracterisation to say that they're "solely" voting for it because it's about a trans woman. I think a huge amount of people genuinely love the movie.
Fernanda Torres gave one of the best performances of the year! She deserves to be nominated. Also Demi Moore gave everything in her performance. They deserve the nominations.
That Fernanda did the talk show rounds, not just late night shows but freaking Live with Kelly and Mark, they're definitely giving a mighty push and I'm sure this will translate to a nomination. Demi will still win tho, but I'm very, very happy for both of them.
I just saw Sing Sing, and I would pick Stan over Domingo any day of the week. Now, Craig in Queer though. That's a great performance that will also likely miss out.
I saw someone point out a very interesting stat: Any film that got nominations at PGA AND Globes Drama Picture almost always makes the Oscars Best Picture lineup. Since 2009, the only films that failed to do it were THE IDES OF MARCH and FOXCATCHER (both of which happened in years where there were variable number of Picture nominees (anywhere from 5-10)). The films with both this year are THE BRUTALIST, A COMPLETE UKNOWN, DUNE 2, CONCLAVE, and SEPTEMBER 5.
Stanley Tucci could *maybe* be an out of nowhere surprise still. When an actor pulls that off, it’s usually a previous nominee or someone they know (he’s both)
John Magaro or Peter Sarsgaard could pop up out of nowhere and get nominated too, since SEPTEMBER 5 is on the cusp, and has a very important stat in its favor for a BP nomination.
Would love to see a video of the two of you putting together your own personal list of nominees/winners. Would love to see how different they are from the actual oscar nominations!
Something to keep in mind regarding the Selena Gomez snub at SAG (41:20). SAG remains the only major awards body to not give her an individual acting nomination for her performance on her very popular (and unlike EP - beloved) show 'Only Murders in the Building'. I expected her to miss CCA and get in at GG, SAG, and BAFTA, but the SAG snub made sense in hindsight once I discovered her history with SAG so it could've just been a weird "bias" thing like a less severe Denzel/BAFTA situation. I was initially predicting her for the Oscar but with JLC coming out of (almost) nowhere, I took her out but wouldn't be surprised if she made it in.
Exactly! Thank you! I wish they'd do a little more research about her SAG history. It's not like the tv and movie portions are voted on by different people.
@@jurney3478 Tbf, they are an Oscars/movie channel and I think they've said they don't really follow music and TV awards that closely. Only people who follow TV awards closely or are OMITB/Gomez fans would know that stat.
revisiting this video after the nominations announcement, and here is the tally: Picture: 1 wrong (A Real Pain -> I'm Still Here) Director: 1 wrong (Edward Berger -> James Mangold) Actress: All correct! Actor: 1 wrong (Daniel Craig -> Sebastian Stan) Supporting Actress: 1 wrong (Jamie Lee Curtis -> Monica Barbaro) Supporting Actor: All correct! Original Screenplay: All correct! Adapted Screenplay: All correct! International: 1 wrong (Kneecap -> Flow) Documentary: 1 wrong (Daughters -> Porcelain War) Animated: All correct! Cinematography: 1 wrong (Conclave -> Emilia Pérez) Editing: 2 wrong (Dune: Part Two; September 5 -> Wicked; The Brutalist) Production Design: All correct! Costume: 1 wrong (Dune: Part Two -> A Complete Unknown) Makeup and Hair: 1 wrong (Beetlejuice -> Emilia Pérez) VFX: 1 wrong (Gladiator II -> Wicked) Sound: 1 wrong (Gladiator II -> The Wild Robot) Score: 1 wrong (Challengers -> Wicked) Song: 1 wrong ("Kiss the Sky" - The Wild Robot -> “Like a Bird,” from “Sing Sing”) Documentary Short: 3 wrong (Makayla's Voice; Once Upon a Time in Ukraine; Chasing Roo -> I Am Ready, Warden; Instruments of a Beating Heart; The Only Girl in the Orchestra) Animated Short: 3 wrong (A Bear Named Wojtek; Maybe Elephants; A Crab in the Pool -> Beautiful Men; Magic Candies; Yuck!) Live-action Short: 3 wrong (An Orange from Jaffa; Room Taken; The Masterpiece -> A Lien; I’m Not a Robot; The Last Ranger)
The sooner people realize that "Best " is a misnomer the better. The Oscars don't necessarily award the "Best". Perhaps " Favorite" our "Preferred " is closer to the actual truth of the matter.
The Academy’s writing branch is way more receptive to Mike Leigh’s work than other bodies. They nominated Happy-Go-Lucky and Another Year for Screenplay despite both missing Screenplay at BAFTA. I wouldn’t discount Hard Truths in Original Screenplay at all.
It'll be hilarious if the Academy goes like in 2021 when they nominated Lakeith Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya for Supporting Actor, but this with Gascón and Saldaña.
Now that I have watched Conclave, how on green earth is Isabella Rossellini being considered in a conversation about Best Supporting Actress. Mind blowing if you ask me, even Jamie Lee Curtis gave more performance in EEAO compared to this
Agreed. Love Rossellini and was excited to watch Conclave seeing all the love she was getting for it...and there was nothing she did (I thought) that would make me think...hey this person deserves a nom!
Y’all are nuts for putting Emilia at #2. Do you know how hard it is to WIN BP as an International Film? It’s only happened once (Parasite), which was extremely well deserved. Emilia is not Parasite. It’ll go to Brutalist or Anora, as those have actual BP wins at smaller ceremonies, and a more American footprint. The globes as a precursor to the Oscars is a joke. You need to look at PGA, DGA and WGA. It should be Brutalist and Anora tied at 1 and 2, then Conclave, then maybe Emilia or Wicked.
Fernanda Torres in your final prediction! In the beginning of the season you guys were completely underestimating her. Marianne, Fernanda and Mickey are my favorites this year
The fact that Emilia Perez is getting all these nominations when it managed to offend an entire continent is mindblowing. A french movie with an all-american/european cast about Latin culture/history. Ridiculous.
I feel like there's some scandolocious back scratching between US and France. Why did Greta Gerwig award Best Actress of Cannes to all 4 actresses in EP? And this brings attention to the movie. And now everyone wants to nominate EP. You get our movies nominated at the Oscars and we will choose American celebrities as jury at Cannes.
When it comes to international film, you have to be very careful when you call Kneecap British It was funded by screen Northern Ireland, and screen Ireland. Culturally it’s not British but qualifies because of the money from Northern Ireland screen it’s Irish. I’m not sure you guys watch the movie otherwise you would understand this and the irony of calling it British
Anora is getting a lone screenplay win. The Brutalist with Brody and Corbet as frontrunners in their respective categories looks far stronger as a BP winner for me, and also competitive in score, cinematography and editing. Not sure Anora is strong enough to win BP with an original screenplay win and nothing else. Also can't see Nickel Boys in the BP 10 over Sing Sing personally
Moore beating Madison at the Globes was when I knew Anora wasn't winning picture. I also agree with you on Nickel Boys v Sing Sing, if it's getting snubbed for Director and the ASC snubbed it for cinematography I don't see how it gets in over Sing Sing which for sure has Domingo getting in.
You have mexican filmakers saying they love the movie like del toro,yall need to understand that just because YALL dont like the movie doesnt mean the other hate.
@girlbossA del toro has his hands tied by netflix contract and he's a nice movie guy who never talks bad on any movie. A film's protagonist is trans and set in Mexico but made by European male dude who admits he knows little about Mexico, tell me why this film should be awarded? Insults to cinefile like me and many others groups. For the record, I do love Jacques' Rust and Bone, but this one he clearly doesn't bother to do researches, it feels like once zoe and Selena teams r on board, his check is secured.
When Oscar snubs an actor who gets in at CC, GG, SAG, and BAFTA, they're always a previous nominee. So of the top 4 in Best Actress, Erivo is the most vulnerable. I'm not predicting her to get snubbed though.
Emilia Pérez kinda peaked early at the globes, it’s doing well with nominations but we don’t really know how it’s gonna do with wins at the other precursors
I don’t think looking at Conclave as “contemporary” for techs fully paints the right picture. Sure that’s true technically, but the movie is set in a society very frozen in time, it’s not like they are wearing jeans and t-shirts and set in suburban American houses, it’s still very showy work.
I think the extra voting window due to the wildfires is going to affect some categories. I can see voters going with easy to watch, emotional, uplifting performances and movies. I don't think stats are as important this season. Going with A Real Pain & Sing Sing in the last two slots in Best Picture because of this. You may see a movie which is a challenging watch like The Brutalist affected by this in some categories like Supporting Actress & Supporting Actor.
“How weary are you of September 5?” Well considering that I am turning 30 this year, yeah. Oh wait this is for the movie? Ok maybe I am weary of that too
I would love your thoughts on this stat regarding Golden Globe wins (re: Fernanda Torres) In the entire history of the Globes, there have NEVER been 4 GG nominees for Best Actress Musical/Comedy that crossover to Academy Award noms.. NEVER. AND, in the entire history of the Globes there have only been THREE times (1964, 1979, 2005) when three nominations roll over. I feel like its an historic year, and the win from Torres means a lot less in that context. It's a lot of people competing for that spot and she's far from a front-runner.
A topic I’d love you guys to cover just for fun is “but which films will actually be iconic?” Regardless if they’re nominated, selected winner, or neither. You can even do a whole series on past iconic movie juggernauts that got little to no Oscar love.
I’m glad you mentioned the race factor as far as visibility for Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. A lot of folks like to pretend it doesn’t matter but we know it does.
great oscar prediction video...I was waiting for you guys oscar predictions... everyone posting their prediction on TH-cam I'm like why are you guys not upload any videos on oscar ....😂❤
It’s not Hopedicting to say Karla could miss out. She’s more likely to be the Barbie. Anyone who watched Cynthia Erivo during the dancing scene knows it’s not a Barbie nomination. The Academy knows it’s the ultimate authority, and I called Margot being snubbed. They have a reputation to live on, unlike the others. A performance as good as Erivo’s won’t be the casualty. I believe they are more willing than the others to have the balls to say someone with a penis should not be nominated for Best Actress. This is a unique situation and should be looked at differently. I want it to be Erivo, Madison, Moore, Anderson, Jolie.
Amazing female performances this year. Just don't take Fernanda Torres for granted. We all know how personal "best" anything can be, the power or money, campaigns, etc. But if by any chance you had the opportunity to see I'm Still Here, you'd understand the buzz around her name. It is a hell of a performance!
I have Dune Part Two in the fifth slot for Adapted Screenplay simply because I noticed that BAFTA doesn't tend to nominate sequel screenplays that get in at the Oscars (i.e. Borat 2, Glass Onion, Top Gun Maverick, the list goes on)
Guys, IDA is not mostly doc members - it's a weird committee of SOME doc makers but mostly curators, critics, and industry experts. Most of the precursors, except for the guild noms (PGA & DGA), are not doc filmmakers. Remember 20 days in Mariupol wasn't nominated for IDA. It's a bizarre organization like Gotham and Spirit Awards. Just an FYI.
@@JKReAl clearly no one in this comment section is defending it. Y’all just keep whining about it in every single video it gets uploaded here, it’s very tiring.
Dune Part Two is the best film of the year. It's stiff competition with Brutalist for gargantuan cinema but honestly, let's give Denis Villeneuve his credit. His entire output is top drawer.
I’m sorry but I just do not agree about Isabella Rossellini. It’s not like I think she’s bad in the movie, but I’m not at all seeing what other people are in her “big scene.” A scene where essentially all she does is go “Hey, that guy’s right” and then leaves. Again, I did think she was good in the movie, I did really like the scene where she didn’t open the door, in fact that was probably my favourite moment in the movie, but that’s not really because of the performance, it’s because of the writing. I don’t know, maybe this is also partly because I wasn’t as hot on Conclave as everyone else was, I personally wouldn’t give it screenplay, director, or even Ralph Fiennes either, but Isabella Rossellini specifically is what has really stunned me about it’s glowing reviews. I’m happy that everyone else is enjoying it more than I am, and I’m happy for Isabella Rossellini and Ralph Fiennes for getting recognised for the first time, but given the people they’re seemingly going to get nominated over like Danielle Deadwyler, Anjanue Ellis-Taylor, Margaret Qualley, Sebastian Stan/Daniel Craig, Hugh Grant, I can’t help but question if they did enough.
The whole thing about Erivo is that there is a part 2 coming out this year, so it would make more sense to nominate her to the next Oscars, for the body of work.
A movie with the dialogue "my vulva hurts just remembering you"....what is this dimension? How did we get here? Why is it okay but people trashes tommy wiseau? How can someone find the "music" of this so called movie tolerable? Definitely the most disappointing movie season in years. It made me lost respect for many movie people.
Final final predictions are being released bc this Oscar race has been like no other. Some actors are already considered locked but in general still an uncertain race, specially for Supporting Actress. Maybe Rossellini could still pull off a Beatrice Straight's-like last minute victory like you said. I hope Pamela Anderson and Margaret Qualley can make it in, too.
It’s quite true about Musicals not winning screenplay. In all of Oscar history only Going My Way and An American in Paris managed to win screenplay. Although it has been a long time since a musical has won both picture and director. 56 years in fact.
Animated Feature is so easy it's making me nervous. They usually don't follow the precursors. I'm thinking Inside Out 2 maybe gets a shocking snub (Incredibles 2 is the only non-Toy Story sequel to be nominated beforehand). Like, I'm not predicting it, and I'd be still surprised, but slightly less surprised than everyone else. Also, shoutout to the Annies for being the least helpful industry precursor.
I really want Clarence to get nominated. Sing sing was my favorite of the year. I also want Colman to win for lead actor. If JLC gets a nom imma be so pissed
Oscar experts???? Says who them???? I'm sorry guys, but y'all can call yourselves experts all y'all want but that don't mean y'all know what y'all are talking about.
I'm inexplicably nervous about this edition. So many good things can happen, but the bad ones seem safer. -I still keep the faith that Emilia Pérez is not what was expected and gives us the surprise of not having so many nominations. -I will go to death with Nickel Boys in Best Picture, Cinematography, Adapted Screenplay, Director and supporting actress. I hope the academy does the right thing -I hope that Nosferatu does get its 5 nominations, that Challengers is not forgotten because it would be the worst thing they will have done, that sing sin does not get lost and that Fernanda Torres does enter the terna see u in thursday!
this video is longer than A Real Pain holy shit
Fr 😂😂
But shorter then the Brutalist
I watch pretty much all TH-cam videos at 2x speed other than movie clips, trailers, or stuff that can't be understood with that speed.
And the last showgirl
You could say it’s a real pain to get through….
1:19 Best Picture
15:12 Best Director
23:06 Lead Actress
32:50 Lead Actor
37:21 Supporting Actress
45:23 Supporting Actor
52:04 Original Screenplay
55:01 Adapted Screenplay
58:03 International Feature
1:01:37 Documentary Feature
1:03:48 Animated Feature
1:04:15 Cinematography
1:08:41 Editing
1:12:03 Production Design
1:14:16 Costume Design
1:17:24 Makeup and Hairstyling
1:22:40 Visual Effects
1:28:40 Sound
1:31:48 Score
1:34:17 Song
1:38:28 Documentary Short
1:41:56 Animated Short
1:44:10 Live-action Short
Thank you!!!
You are amazing! Thanks for this ❤
Thank you so much
Not all heroes wear capes.
Hi
i LOVE how long this video is. should be nominated for best picture
😅
And Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Cinematography
Ignoring supporting actress I see
@@nathanmitchell958 First feline nominee!
My choice for supporting actor was the cat even though he had a non verbal screentime. I liked the editing and screenplay
This race started pretty conventional and has really dipped into “no set winners, it’s all over” which I think makes for a really fun race and watch. It’s better when it’s not a direct known sweep
Totally agree! Way more suspenseful than last year and I love that!
Yeah last year was boring, because it was predictable. Maybe exception being Best Actress
I enjoy when sweeps happen. But they don’t need to always happen. I wanna see two actors duke it out all season.
this is gonna be the wildest nominations announcement yet. their reaction video is gonna be an all timer
1:19 Best Picture
15:12 Best Director
23:06 Lead Actress
32:50 Lead Actor
37:21 Supporting Actress
45:23 Supporting Actor
52:04 Original Screenplay
55:01 Adapted Screenplay
58:03 International Feature
1:01:37 Documentary Feature
1:03:48 Animated Feature
1:04:15 Cinematography
1:08:41 Editing
1:12:03 Production Design
1:14:16 Costume Design
1:17:24 Makeup and Hairstyling
1:22:40 Visual Effects
1:28:40 Sound
1:31:48 Score
1:34:17 Song
1:38:28 Documentary Short
1:41:56 Animated Short
1:44:10 Live-action Short
We must protect the cat
I’m anticipating them to completely devolve into monkeys at some point this season like they did when Parasite won Best Director.
Pour one out for the cat.
Or if Emilia Perez wins Best Picture, we may get a worse reaction from them than when Green Book won
We need something that tops their all-time great reaction to that insane Lakeith Stanfield nomination
I feel like the extra week between nominations has just given us all time to panic about our list and this crazy season we’re having
"Every French director is an auteur" 😂
@@MuhammadAhmad-oj6mf sad but true when it comes to the American academy 😂😂
Emilia Perez for BP rising in your predictions breaks my heart
Remember when people were predicting double nominations for Saoirse ronan in best lead actress and best supporting actress for the outrun and blitz😂
What a time
That should have happened at least for Blitz. I also thought Amy Adams should win for Nightbitch, not Demi Moore for a gross horror movie.
@@tonyg76 yet another viewer who didnt get the substance calls it a horror film.
@berk I am not the only one so what makes it more than a gross body horror film? I have not even seen the substance. sounds terrible.
@@tonyg76 From your comment I knew you haven't seen the film. If you haven't seen the film what you say something negative????? Embrace the films you like, leave the film you haven't seen. Unfair to say something negative for you haven.t seen . forget about what the others say.
@@berkcansevgi2714 Fair enough. I am not passionate about the oscar films I have seen.
Emilia Pérez winning will probably make people appreciate Green Book and Crash more.
no crash is 100x worse
If I have won Best Picture, it is by standing on the shoulders of Green Book and Crash. - Sir Emilia Néwton
Fun Fact: if Emilia Pérez Wins best pichure, with current Letterboxd score, it will be tied for the thrid with Cavalcade lowest rated best pichure on the site, with Cimarron and The Brodway Melody ranked lower. YES Crash, Green Book and The Greatest Show on Earth, have a higher ratting on letterboxd then Emilia Pérez !
Hopefully that won’t be the case ….choosing that atrocity of “movie” would tell us a lot about the idiocy and ignorance of the American academy .I know they are woke ..but taking that path would just close the coffin for cinema ….
@@notchuckproductions5029Emilia Perez has been mass bombed by Brazilians, Ariana Grande stans and Mexicans. Its Letterboxd score does not reflect how the industry/audience really feels about it.
I FEEL Brother bro talking about having lost the pulse of awards season. Everything is chaos and its wild! Not feeling too confident after winning the nominations challenge on the app last year 😭😭
Well isnt that more exciting? Cause if it’s predictable you would also then say that it is so. Quibble much!? 😂😂😂😂😂
"its offending people on letterboxd, its the perfect recipe for a winner" made me laugh out loud
There's always one short that people don't want to win will win lol. Last year it was War is Over
im convinced one of you fainted when Im still here got to BP
Wow been waiting for this since 2-3 days, was continuously checking your channel to see any new uploads. Finally
Having now seen A Different Man and The Apprentice, it’d be sad if Stan gets nothing this year
He needs to get in for The Apprentice. Haven't seen Chalamet or Brody yet but from what I've seen, Stan was the absolute best.
@blackforest825 I’m gonna predict him (in The Apprentice) over Daniel Craig, see what happens
@ I loved Craig though. I want Craig and Stan both in. Brody and Chalamet I haven't seen yet. But Domingo can go (he wasn't anything special imo).
@blackforest825 I haven’t seen Queer; if this were 6 slots it would be such a breeze but what can you do
@ I still have hopes. Acting wise, Craig has never been better. Career-best.
60k subs is HUGE. You guys deserve all of your success.
should be 100k+ at this point
edit: just in case SOME misunderstands my comment lol.. what i meant to say is they deserve to have 100k+ with all the content they're giving us.
Should be more, still little for TH-cam
@@jna9841 how would you possibly misunderstand that?
I’m genuinely so excited about how unpredictable this awards season is. There will definitely be some surprises come Thursday!!
I 'm gay, I love musicals, Spanish language, and gangsta shit, and yet Emilia Perez still didn't work for me. 5/10. Justice for WICKED
Hollywood's continued push at giving Emilia Perez so many nominations just shows you how out of touch they are. They are voting for it solely for the fact that the story's about a trans woman but ignoring the fact that it's terrible and most audiences find it offensive. I feel bad for all the good foreign films this year that aren't getting as much love because of Emilia Perez.
Well, it's also a well established, auteur director making a deeply unconventional musical. On paper Emilia Perez sounds amazing, in reality not so much.
They're going to pack themselves on the back as progressive, that you actually talk to people in Hollywood, they're not progressive
@@benjamintillema3572 musical? Those aren't songs in Emilia Perez, they are audio train wrecks. Film would have been better as a drama without those "songs".
I've met a few older people in the film industry (none of them Oscar voters, mind you) who think it's a brilliantly-made movie and think that those who find it offensive are exaggerating ("why does it matter that it's not 'authentic' to the Mexican or trans experience? It's a movie!"). I agree with you that it shouldn't be getting so much love, but from my admittedly anecdotal experience, it's a mischaracterisation to say that they're "solely" voting for it because it's about a trans woman. I think a huge amount of people genuinely love the movie.
@@sebastiano728 Must be the same people who voted for "Crash" and "Green Book". Those films look like masterpieces next to Emilia.
Fernanda Torres gave one of the best performances of the year! She deserves to be nominated. Also Demi Moore gave everything in her performance. They deserve the nominations.
That Fernanda did the talk show rounds, not just late night shows but freaking Live with Kelly and Mark, they're definitely giving a mighty push and I'm sure this will translate to a nomination. Demi will still win tho, but I'm very, very happy for both of them.
What an original take!
Can’t believe Sebastian gave 2 great performances, and he most likely will not get nominated for either.
I think Strong and Stan could be another Nyad duo, not sure Craig is too strong after the Bafta snub
I think Stan gets nominated for The Apprentice
The problem in this particular case is that he is a victim of vote splitting.
I just saw Sing Sing, and I would pick Stan over Domingo any day of the week. Now, Craig in Queer though. That's a great performance that will also likely miss out.
@@ojd.1 I'M DYING FOR STRONG TO GET IN. And I had no idea who this guy was before seeing this movie. Loved him.
I saw someone point out a very interesting stat: Any film that got nominations at PGA AND Globes Drama Picture almost always makes the Oscars Best Picture lineup. Since 2009, the only films that failed to do it were THE IDES OF MARCH and FOXCATCHER (both of which happened in years where there were variable number of Picture nominees (anywhere from 5-10)). The films with both this year are THE BRUTALIST, A COMPLETE UKNOWN, DUNE 2, CONCLAVE, and SEPTEMBER 5.
I’ve always watched y’all but recently I’ve just been refreshing over and over for your videos.
The LA fires caused some gaps in the Award Season.
I feel like we might see some crazy snubs and nominations happening that we don't expect... it scares me.
Stanley Tucci could *maybe* be an out of nowhere surprise still. When an actor pulls that off, it’s usually a previous nominee or someone they know (he’s both)
John Magaro or Peter Sarsgaard could pop up out of nowhere and get nominated too, since SEPTEMBER 5 is on the cusp, and has a very important stat in its favor for a BP nomination.
Craig missed at bafta cause Stan was only shortlisted for apprentice, when he’s not splitting votes he’s stronger then Craig
Would love to see a video of the two of you putting together your own personal list of nominees/winners. Would love to see how different they are from the actual oscar nominations!
@@jackdillon6380 i would love this as well!!!
Something to keep in mind regarding the Selena Gomez snub at SAG (41:20). SAG remains the only major awards body to not give her an individual acting nomination for her performance on her very popular (and unlike EP - beloved) show 'Only Murders in the Building'. I expected her to miss CCA and get in at GG, SAG, and BAFTA, but the SAG snub made sense in hindsight once I discovered her history with SAG so it could've just been a weird "bias" thing like a less severe Denzel/BAFTA situation. I was initially predicting her for the Oscar but with JLC coming out of (almost) nowhere, I took her out but wouldn't be surprised if she made it in.
Exactly! Thank you! I wish they'd do a little more research about her SAG history. It's not like the tv and movie portions are voted on by different people.
So why SAG snub her in both TV and film?
@@jurney3478 Tbf, they are an Oscars/movie channel and I think they've said they don't really follow music and TV awards that closely. Only people who follow TV awards closely or are OMITB/Gomez fans would know that stat.
Im not ready for another Villeneuve Snub. I seriously hope he gets in.
revisiting this video after the nominations announcement, and here is the tally:
Picture: 1 wrong (A Real Pain -> I'm Still Here)
Director: 1 wrong (Edward Berger -> James Mangold)
Actress: All correct!
Actor: 1 wrong (Daniel Craig -> Sebastian Stan)
Supporting Actress: 1 wrong (Jamie Lee Curtis -> Monica Barbaro)
Supporting Actor: All correct!
Original Screenplay: All correct!
Adapted Screenplay: All correct!
International: 1 wrong (Kneecap -> Flow)
Documentary: 1 wrong (Daughters -> Porcelain War)
Animated: All correct!
Cinematography: 1 wrong (Conclave -> Emilia Pérez)
Editing: 2 wrong (Dune: Part Two; September 5 -> Wicked; The Brutalist)
Production Design: All correct!
Costume: 1 wrong (Dune: Part Two -> A Complete Unknown)
Makeup and Hair: 1 wrong (Beetlejuice -> Emilia Pérez)
VFX: 1 wrong (Gladiator II -> Wicked)
Sound: 1 wrong (Gladiator II -> The Wild Robot)
Score: 1 wrong (Challengers -> Wicked)
Song: 1 wrong ("Kiss the Sky" - The Wild Robot -> “Like a Bird,” from “Sing Sing”)
Documentary Short: 3 wrong (Makayla's Voice; Once Upon a Time in Ukraine; Chasing Roo -> I Am Ready, Warden; Instruments of a Beating Heart; The Only Girl in the Orchestra)
Animated Short: 3 wrong (A Bear Named Wojtek; Maybe Elephants; A Crab in the Pool -> Beautiful Men; Magic Candies; Yuck!)
Live-action Short: 3 wrong (An Orange from Jaffa; Room Taken; The Masterpiece -> A Lien; I’m Not a Robot; The Last Ranger)
Edward Berger wasn't nominated so I guess he wasn't a sure thing like you said. James Mangold was nominated so you were wrong again. 😂
i want a real pain to be nominated for bp just so emma stone is there
Are we certain she’s one of the producers who would get a nomination?
@@Lamidemonami7891 Why wouldn't she be? Genuine question
@@somewherenowhere676 because not every producer receives a nomination for a film they are a credited producer on
@@Lamidemonami7891 but how is that determined?
@@somewherenowhere676 I believe the producers decide. Not sure of the specifics but I know it’s not the Academy that does
The more Trump says bad things about trans people , the more emilia perez has chance to win Best Picture.
So sad that's the reason for it.
The sooner people realize that "Best " is a misnomer the better. The Oscars don't necessarily award the "Best".
Perhaps " Favorite" our "Preferred " is closer to the actual truth of the matter.
Love that Brother Bro is encouraging to still get a couple extra points from the shorts and all that shit.
The Academy’s writing branch is way more receptive to Mike Leigh’s work than other bodies. They nominated Happy-Go-Lucky and Another Year for Screenplay despite both missing Screenplay at BAFTA. I wouldn’t discount Hard Truths in Original Screenplay at all.
Selena Gómez being more likely to be nominated than Margaret Qualley has turned me off Awards season entirely.
K bye
It'll be hilarious if the Academy goes like in 2021 when they nominated Lakeith Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya for Supporting Actor, but this with Gascón and Saldaña.
Watched it with my parents, they both instinctually said Zoë was the lead, and Karla was supporting
1:03:47 Notice hoy the cat said 'Flow' immediately 🐈⬛
Now that I have watched Conclave, how on green earth is Isabella Rossellini being considered in a conversation about Best Supporting Actress. Mind blowing if you ask me, even Jamie Lee Curtis gave more performance in EEAO compared to this
Agreed. Love Rossellini and was excited to watch Conclave seeing all the love she was getting for it...and there was nothing she did (I thought) that would make me think...hey this person deserves a nom!
Beats me. She put on the nun suit, said about 7 lines and left the set. I do not get it.
Nah. She was great. Deserves a nomination.
JLC in Everything Everywhere was like 5x Rossellinis performance
The Hollywood people want to thank her for that neon pink potion and I ain't talking about Galinda.
Y’all are nuts for putting Emilia at #2. Do you know how hard it is to WIN BP as an International Film? It’s only happened once (Parasite), which was extremely well deserved. Emilia is not Parasite. It’ll go to Brutalist or Anora, as those have actual BP wins at smaller ceremonies, and a more American footprint. The globes as a precursor to the Oscars is a joke. You need to look at PGA, DGA and WGA. It should be Brutalist and Anora tied at 1 and 2, then Conclave, then maybe Emilia or Wicked.
When was the last time Picture, Director and both Screenplay categories went to 4 different movies?
Fernanda Torres in your final prediction! In the beginning of the season you guys were completely underestimating her. Marianne, Fernanda and Mickey are my favorites this year
i literally can’t believe that villeneuve snub for MESS perez😩😩😩
The fact that Emilia Perez is getting all these nominations when it managed to offend an entire continent is mindblowing. A french movie with an all-american/european cast about Latin culture/history. Ridiculous.
White people couldn't care less
Way to be hyperbolic. Though doubt you know what that means
@ Assuming that I don’t know english because I’m from a Latin country? Way to be xenophobic. Though I doubt you know what that means.
I don't care much about film awards, yet I watch almost every video you guys make xd
I feel like there's some scandolocious back scratching between US and France. Why did Greta Gerwig award Best Actress of Cannes to all 4 actresses in EP? And this brings attention to the movie. And now everyone wants to nominate EP.
You get our movies nominated at the Oscars and we will choose American celebrities as jury at Cannes.
Mark my words Cynthia Erivo will get a Best Actress nom!
I’m positive that their nomination reaction video will single-handedly push them to 60k subs
You were right 😂
I’m so scared that so many people are gonna be snubbed
I don’t know why I feel it but I do 😫
When it comes to international film, you have to be very careful when you call Kneecap British It was funded by screen Northern Ireland, and screen Ireland. Culturally it’s not British but qualifies because of the money from Northern Ireland screen it’s Irish. I’m not sure you guys watch the movie otherwise you would understand this and the irony of calling it British
These are the same guys who equate "British" with "European" when the UK is probably the most culturally separate bit of Europe
Also, it was Ireland’s entry for International Feature, not the UK. I hope those guys win something at BAFTA just to see their speech!
It was nominated for the Best British Film BAFTA.
yeah i wonder if they’ve even watched the movie, because calling it british is missing the entire point
Anora is getting a lone screenplay win. The Brutalist with Brody and Corbet as frontrunners in their respective categories looks far stronger as a BP winner for me, and also competitive in score, cinematography and editing. Not sure Anora is strong enough to win BP with an original screenplay win and nothing else. Also can't see Nickel Boys in the BP 10 over Sing Sing personally
Moore beating Madison at the Globes was when I knew Anora wasn't winning picture. I also agree with you on Nickel Boys v Sing Sing, if it's getting snubbed for Director and the ASC snubbed it for cinematography I don't see how it gets in over Sing Sing which for sure has Domingo getting in.
@ Same here! Anora isn’t the front runner in any category other than original screenplay now. I can see BAFTA goose egging it too truthfully
A film like The Brutalist might be too arthouse to win Best Picture. Remember, this is a preferential ballot!
I can see Anora winning absolutely nothing and I would not be surprised
@@osofilms1319Perhaps. But you could make a similar case as to why Anora might be too sexual or too unsubtle for some people
I'm really rooting for Fernanda Torres for the film I'm Still Here, I hope the film gets some nominations❤
Every time you guys don’t predict Selena she gets in so this could be a prediction in itself 😂
When they predicted her for SAG she *didn’t* get in
@ exactly every time they predict her she doesn’t get in and everytime they don’t predict her she gets in
I like Selena, but hers was the ONLY performance of 2024 that I thought was Razzie worthy. Her Spanish alone was HILARIOUS.
How could the Academy not realize that everything around Emilia Perez is problematic, at least!
Cause they don’t care they’re not chronically online
You have mexican filmakers saying they love the movie like del toro,yall need to understand that just because YALL dont like the movie doesnt mean the other hate.
@girlbossA del toro has his hands tied by netflix contract and he's a nice movie guy who never talks bad on any movie. A film's protagonist is trans and set in Mexico but made by European male dude who admits he knows little about Mexico, tell me why this film should be awarded? Insults to cinefile like me and many others groups. For the record, I do love Jacques' Rust and Bone, but this one he clearly doesn't bother to do researches, it feels like once zoe and Selena teams r on board, his check is secured.
@@girlbossA Even JA Bayona proclaimed it as an ode to Mexico when they gave it the jury prize in Cannes
One of Sing Sing or Nickel Boys is gonna walk away empty-handed and it'll be criminal
I remember your first prediction videos for this season had Sing Sing far and away at #1. How the mighty have fallen 😢 (If it misses BP I will riot)
Even if it misses BP I really hope Maclin gets in for Supporting and Screenplay
@@joelanthonylim6792 Same! in a perfect world i wish Maclin AND Strong got in over Norton
When Oscar snubs an actor who gets in at CC, GG, SAG, and BAFTA, they're always a previous nominee. So of the top 4 in Best Actress, Erivo is the most vulnerable. I'm not predicting her to get snubbed though.
I love how people think this award season is unpredictable just because no one accepts that Emilia Pérez is way ahead of everything else.
Vaginaaaaa 🎶
hahaha that doesn't mean it's good
Emilia Pérez kinda peaked early at the globes, it’s doing well with nominations but we don’t really know how it’s gonna do with wins at the other precursors
I don’t think looking at Conclave as “contemporary” for techs fully paints the right picture. Sure that’s true technically, but the movie is set in a society very frozen in time, it’s not like they are wearing jeans and t-shirts and set in suburban American houses, it’s still very showy work.
I think the extra voting window due to the wildfires is going to affect some categories. I can see voters going with easy to watch, emotional, uplifting performances and movies. I don't think stats are as important this season. Going with A Real Pain & Sing Sing in the last two slots in Best Picture because of this. You may see a movie which is a challenging watch like The Brutalist affected by this in some categories like Supporting Actress & Supporting Actor.
Can I log this on Letterboxd?
Longer than a real pain, like many have said so you might as well 😭
“How weary are you of September 5?”
Well considering that I am turning 30 this year, yeah.
Oh wait this is for the movie? Ok maybe I am weary of that too
Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but why do i feel like Nickel Boys will over perform and Emilia Perez will underperform?
I would love your thoughts on this stat regarding Golden Globe wins (re: Fernanda Torres) In the entire history of the Globes, there have NEVER been 4 GG nominees for Best Actress Musical/Comedy that crossover to Academy Award noms.. NEVER. AND, in the entire history of the Globes there have only been THREE times (1964, 1979, 2005) when three nominations roll over. I feel like its an historic year, and the win from Torres means a lot less in that context. It's a lot of people competing for that spot and she's far from a front-runner.
A topic I’d love you guys to cover just for fun is “but which films will actually be iconic?” Regardless if they’re nominated, selected winner, or neither. You can even do a whole series on past iconic movie juggernauts that got little to no Oscar love.
I’m glad you mentioned the race factor as far as visibility for Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. A lot of folks like to pretend it doesn’t matter but we know it does.
Just watched the announcement and pumped to see the reaction later
The Diane Warren part made me laugh loud 😂
great oscar prediction video...I was waiting for you guys oscar predictions... everyone posting their prediction on TH-cam I'm like why are you guys not upload any videos on oscar ....😂❤
It’s not Hopedicting to say Karla could miss out. She’s more likely to be the Barbie. Anyone who watched Cynthia Erivo during the dancing scene knows it’s not a Barbie nomination. The Academy knows it’s the ultimate authority, and I called Margot being snubbed. They have a reputation to live on, unlike the others. A performance as good as Erivo’s won’t be the casualty. I believe they are more willing than the others to have the balls to say someone with a penis should not be nominated for Best Actress. This is a unique situation and should be looked at differently. I want it to be Erivo, Madison, Moore, Anderson, Jolie.
And then it would be Brody, Chalamet, Domingo Fiennes, and Gascon?
Amazing female performances this year. Just don't take Fernanda Torres for granted. We all know how personal "best" anything can be, the power or money, campaigns, etc. But if by any chance you had the opportunity to see I'm Still Here, you'd understand the buzz around her name. It is a hell of a performance!
Kitty spoke up during animated - her vote is clearly for “Flow.” 1:04:05
I have Dune Part Two in the fifth slot for Adapted Screenplay simply because I noticed that BAFTA doesn't tend to nominate sequel screenplays that get in at the Oscars (i.e. Borat 2, Glass Onion, Top Gun Maverick, the list goes on)
Guys, IDA is not mostly doc members - it's a weird committee of SOME doc makers but mostly curators, critics, and industry experts. Most of the precursors, except for the guild noms (PGA & DGA), are not doc filmmakers. Remember 20 days in Mariupol wasn't nominated for IDA. It's a bizarre organization like Gotham and Spirit Awards. Just an FYI.
All predictions in one video. Giving the people what they want 🎉
This is the first season i followed entirely on my own. Im extremely nervous and excited for thursday. Im gonna get all my predictions wrong lol
i mean remember amy adams for nightbitch 🤣. Old times
Stop giving Emilia Perez awards
if we could we would!
Grow up
Keep crying
@@zogiemoonyes, you should grow to have better taste and stop defending a mediocre film like Emilia Pérez and the terrible performance of sg
@@JKReAl clearly no one in this comment section is defending it. Y’all just keep whining about it in every single video it gets uploaded here, it’s very tiring.
Dune Part Two is the best film of the year. It's stiff competition with Brutalist for gargantuan cinema but honestly, let's give Denis Villeneuve his credit. His entire output is top drawer.
I’m sorry but I just do not agree about Isabella Rossellini.
It’s not like I think she’s bad in the movie, but I’m not at all seeing what other people are in her “big scene.”
A scene where essentially all she does is go “Hey, that guy’s right” and then leaves.
Again, I did think she was good in the movie, I did really like the scene where she didn’t open the door, in fact that was probably my favourite moment in the movie, but that’s not really because of the performance, it’s because of the writing.
I don’t know, maybe this is also partly because I wasn’t as hot on Conclave as everyone else was, I personally wouldn’t give it screenplay, director, or even Ralph Fiennes either, but Isabella Rossellini specifically is what has really stunned me about it’s glowing reviews.
I’m happy that everyone else is enjoying it more than I am, and I’m happy for Isabella Rossellini and Ralph Fiennes for getting recognised for the first time, but given the people they’re seemingly going to get nominated over like Danielle Deadwyler, Anjanue Ellis-Taylor, Margaret Qualley, Sebastian Stan/Daniel Craig, Hugh Grant, I can’t help but question if they did enough.
I’d be very happy if they snubbed Audiard and makes way for Chu to upsetting you guys. 😁❤️
Guys I’m scared 😀
Also I’m so here for Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang announcing let’s go
They asked Bowen Yang ? Because Wicked is getting a scandolicious amount of noms?
The whole thing about Erivo is that there is a part 2 coming out this year, so it would make more sense to nominate her to the next Oscars, for the body of work.
What's so great about 'Sing Sing'? I thought it was good but it didn't blow my mind. Rossellini was barely in Conclave.
Haven't watched but I have to like and leave a comment first. I'm so excited for this video :)
You're so right about the comparison between Night Ride and Room Taken and I'm PRAYING they leave Room Taken off the list
I’m so excited!!!
this video being longer than A Real Pain is so 😭
And the same length as Sing Sing
For reference, the music video that ME was likely supposed to be part of is probably for Arcade Fire lol
FYI a remote VFX bakeoff did happen. It was shorter than the in person one, but still had breakdown and Q+A.
Emilia Perez is about to be the worst movie nominated for best picture EVER.
A movie with the dialogue "my vulva hurts just remembering you"....what is this dimension? How did we get here? Why is it okay but people trashes tommy wiseau? How can someone find the "music" of this so called movie tolerable? Definitely the most disappointing movie season in years. It made me lost respect for many movie people.
@@Luneland emilia perez, nothing will make me love you, overrated movie without any basis
Zoe Saldana could win two Oscar trophies : Best Supportting Actress and Best Original Song (El Mal). 🏆🏆
Final final predictions are being released bc this Oscar race has been like no other. Some actors are already considered locked but in general still an uncertain race, specially for Supporting Actress. Maybe Rossellini could still pull off a Beatrice Straight's-like last minute victory like you said. I hope Pamela Anderson and Margaret Qualley can make it in, too.
It’s quite true about Musicals not winning screenplay. In all of Oscar history only Going My Way and An American in Paris managed to win screenplay. Although it has been a long time since a musical has won both picture and director. 56 years in fact.
Fernanda torres is amazing
Emilia Perez being number 2 in adapted screenplay sounds so bad. Thank god there’s Conclave to win that… also what the makeup in Emilia Perez???
I assume they will try to run it with the make up used for Emilia pre-transition
Fernanda Torres!!!
Animated Feature is so easy it's making me nervous. They usually don't follow the precursors. I'm thinking Inside Out 2 maybe gets a shocking snub (Incredibles 2 is the only non-Toy Story sequel to be nominated beforehand). Like, I'm not predicting it, and I'd be still surprised, but slightly less surprised than everyone else. Also, shoutout to the Annies for being the least helpful industry precursor.
Stans is hurt most by having 2 choices- splitting his own vote.
Exactly. The other major nom he got was at BAFTA, but there was no vote-splitting there
I really want Clarence to get nominated. Sing sing was my favorite of the year. I also want Colman to win for lead actor. If JLC gets a nom imma be so pissed
Oscar experts???? Says who them???? I'm sorry guys, but y'all can call yourselves experts all y'all want but that don't mean y'all know what y'all are talking about.
I'm inexplicably nervous about this edition. So many good things can happen, but the bad ones seem safer.
-I still keep the faith that Emilia Pérez is not what was expected and gives us the surprise of not having so many nominations.
-I will go to death with Nickel Boys in Best Picture, Cinematography, Adapted Screenplay, Director and supporting actress. I hope the academy does the right thing
-I hope that Nosferatu does get its 5 nominations, that Challengers is not forgotten because it would be the worst thing they will have done, that sing sin does not get lost and that Fernanda Torres does enter the terna
see u in thursday!