‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman: I personally think there should be no Fed rate cuts this year
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 พ.ค. 2024
- Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the state of the economy, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.
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I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $400k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat
I think the whole thing about holding stocks for long term will always apply. So I think you should get a quality broker who is able to analyze and pick stocks that will do well in the long term, else you will be in a long bear ride.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
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Overall, 51% of traders think this year would favor stocks, mutual funds, and other equity-based investments, despite Treasury yields and other safer cash-like investments paying big. I’m looking for opportunities in the market that could fetch me $1m ahead of retirement by 2025
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Interesting how over 2% inflation has been a concern when central banks and the Fed begin to hike interest rates. I consider the rising interest rate to be a very serious issue since it will undoubtedly cause more investors to withdraw their money from the stock market. But then I'm still aware of certain investors that continue to earn over $365,000. Wish I could accomplish that.
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With the economy still pretty hot and inflation sticky, U.S. stocks ended Friday’s session in the red with all three major averages notching weekly losses as inflation and global crises intensifies. The Dow Jones Industrial average dropped 1.24%,The S&P 500 shed 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.62%. Shares are extending a downtrend. I have over $320k in stocks. Currently, my portfolio is down by 15%. Wondering if there are any short term opportunities I can invest in.
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"Big Short" investor Steve Eisman said the sizzling stock market rally can run on as long as the US economy stays strong. I’ve been sitting on over $345K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy into stocks or do I wait for another opportunity?
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I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
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Rate cuts commence in June 2024, taking 6-8 months to complete. A potential crash, if any, might occur by March 2025. The soft landing narrative is gaining traction, making this big recession everyone is calling for less likely. With $1 million from a business sale, I'm seeking profitable investment opportunities for the next 3 years.
You seem so sure of yourself... Complete in 6-8 months?? Can I have some of what you are smoking? 😂😂😂
Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
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Investors appear to be skeptical about the Federal Reserve's intention to extend the interest rate pause. In terms of myself, I'm at a loss as to whether or not to put $150k into my stock portfolio. I want to know what the best plan of action is to take advantage of this market.
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This man is unaffected by inflation
Yep, top 1% don't get it. Also everything is fine just because of gargantuan deficit spending, without it we'd already in recession like other countries
Rate cuts would send inflation sky high, if anything rates should go up.
If you are worried about inflation you would advocate for rates to either stay the same or increase. Lowering rates is inflationary.
yup, hes worth 2 billion. they benefit from inflation.
yup typical liberal who does give two F's about the little people. "you can't have everything, unless you are me"
For those of us who have a working memory, back in 2007 the Fed cut rates and everyone thought we had a "soft landing" then 2008 happened. We need to learn from history.
And what would that be?
@@sciencefliestothemoon2305 th-cam.com/video/7LFtoz9sERo/w-d-xo.htmlsi=Asr9EMaPm8XC6BOp 3:42 “and what would that be?”
This isnt that
@@petermaag9622 Tbh, every single time we have had a crash its always been when they start cutting rates because that's when all the damage has been done. Go look at all the major crashes that has happened in the past 50 years. If it did happen soon tho would be a great opportunity to get rich ^..^
Same thing will hapend 2025
I sugesting to all of you go long in stock market whole 2024 and sell after election
Here’s an idea: let the guest talk without interrupting
Weird day with the CNBC hosts sounding more intelligent than a highly respected expert. And the comment section filled with thoughtful critiques.
They sounded dumb lol. Guess you don't fully understand economies. Inflation is decreasing at a faster rate, but its still going to be above 2% for a long time because its measured year per year and the base is still quite a lot higher than 2%. Cutting rates anytime soon would be stupid and force them to increase interest rates again, because if they were to do that anytime soon inflation will skyrocket again. Anyways, I don't mind a big crash coming. Would be a great time to get rich. The rich love crashes, because its the easiest time to multiply your wealth
love Steve Eisman, great at what he does, but he's a little out of touch here. Lol
@@joesixpack2878he understands the theory on why the Fed would want to cut rates - and we don't have those conditions. The risk is higher inflation, which we need to avoid
@@bryantgouveia Not to me. I think they were frustrated (rightfully) at Eisman’s dismissiveness. Rising personal debt, rising credit card balances, falling house prices, rising crime levels - completely ignoring anything that doesn’t fit his un-nuanced take.
Rising crime levels? Where? The United States has some of the lowest crime rates in its history right now.
I had initially planned to retire at 62, work part-time, and save money, but the impact of high prices on various goods and services has significantly disrupted my retirement plan. I'm worried about whether those who experienced the 2008 financial crisis had it easier than I currently am. The volatility of the stock market is a concern as my income has decreased, and I fear that I won't be able to contribute as much as before, potentially jeopardizing my retirement savings.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
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This is a prime example of someone being right once doesn't mean they are right about anything else.
Could not have said it any better myself.
For real
I was just about to comment the same thing
Yeah if people are truly worried about inflation they would advocate for higher rates. If they lower rates houses will become even more expensive and less affordable and young people will never get ahead. Lowering rates now only helps boomers.
I'm confused how for 45 years we had higher rates than current rates but now it's important to get them lower. Rates under 3% were never heard of until the 2010s. Can you explain why the change in policy.
@cnbc, How long before Kernen retires? It would be nice to hear a business guest talk without being cut off before he/she finishes their statement.
Young guy is a left wing bot.
Wall Street people doing good as that men said.
He does not feel inflation cause he don't care how much egs are or milk.
Inflation makes his stocks go up
Here is the real thing and FED knows that wery well
We need interest rate at 8 % to lover the inflation not 5,5% that will case recesion and country colapse.So they just continue to kick the can down the road. We will not have recesion before midle 2025 or 2026 by that time stocks will go up extremly as Crypto market.
There’s a lot of money flowing in the economy, but it’s isolated to fewer and fewer sectors
@@aaronkerrigan241 yes but you have to know those people carry US economy and it is more than 80% of Americans who live from monthly salary
@@tomw485 exactly. The people in the comments really are clueless.
I leave the grocery store with about 30% less than I did about three years ago. which sucks.
and you are still over weight ... FYI - prices never go down ... and grocery prices have NOT increased 30% of the past 3 years, your made up numbers are meaningless.
50% less
We still enjoy some of the lowest food prices as a percent of income in history. Maybe we have to eat chicken a few more nights instead of beef to save money if are budgets are tight
Fortunately the grocery store chain's CEO is bringing home millions more than he was two years ago, thanks to the Trump Tax Cuts for millionaires. Thank God someone is protecting our millionaires.
If inflation is the concern then cutting rates would be foolish. Why does anyone think cutting rates would mitigate inflation in any way.
YEP, its only gonna bring it BACK. Housing is gonna skyrocket AGAIN if interest rates go down to 5% or so.
Lack of faith in the Fed
Inflation will be IRRELEVANT when the debt BOMB finally ignites and CREDIT GETS WIPED OUT. hahahaha. It amazes me what little people understand on these channels. YIKES ! Convert to GOLD or you will ALSO BE WIPED OUT. this is NOT rocket science. These pumpers just try and make it seem like it is so they can TALK about it ALL THE TIME to convince you gullible fools they are “ SMART” HAHAHAHAHAHAAAaaaahhhhhh……
Smooth brains believe Democrats talking points blaming inflation on the fed
As someone who sees week in and week out that suppliers/manufacturers are still raising prices consistently. He’s 100% right that it’s not looking likely for any rate cuts this year with inflation still hanging around 4% and true inflation much higher, definitely increasing faster than wages. They cut rates now, and you’ll see dramatically more inflation.
Love Joe. Keeping it real regarding inflation and not letting Eisman get away with a bit of nonsense. Prices are up big time and many people are much worse off than they were pre pandemic despite any measly wage increase. Keep it up Joe!
no mention of massive government deficit spending?
There was
Never. If the country implodes the rich will just move to another. They don't care about US debt
Next, MasterSack is gonna tell us that the dollar is at risk of losing its status as the world's reserve currency. LoL.
@@stevechance150 🐑🐑🐑
What did I learn from this convo?
Nothing……..
Exactly, many words discussion like
People expecting cuts need lower their expectations. The market has been pricing them in, and it's likely a misstep
Finally, someone with a head. Housing is going up again. In the state of Utah Housing is up 5% year over year. Inflation is still going up more than 2%.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
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Steve Eisman is a great man!! The Data is not weak! Love him (No Diddy). When he put up his hand to ask if there was any % chance of a bubble in The film and the guy said no, the way he got up and left while calling his colleagues was Brilliant. Much Respect to Mr Eisman.
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I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
I think this guy is smart, but I don't see why he is saying the economy is fine. We went to the market this week to get some mayonnaise for deviled eggs and they wanted $8 for a bottle. Are you kidding me? Here is another data point: everyone I know is seeing layoffs at their companies. That being said, I do agree the Fed should leave rates alone. If they lower rates, we will see prices go up even more.
Funny how CNBC will acknowledge it's a weak economy in one video and in this video say it's a strong economy.
What a CLOWN! This just proves how out of touch some of these folks really are. I went through the McDonalds drive through, spent $4.09 on just fries, and the cashier was telling me about her other job. Inflation hurts the bottom class the most as they are usually the last ones to touch the money.. those closer to the printer aren't as affected.
$5 for a large fries in Canada
@@aaronkerrigan241 Go touch some grass.
Loved the "Let them eat cake comment"!
You can't have everything! - The Big Short Guy
They should rename this show: Talking My Book.
That’s right. Price for everything is still too high. Thank you for keep saying that.
No cuts is my base case. Until real estate drops more (insurance, property taxes too) inflation will remain elevated.
love to hear from Steve Eisman, always frank and to the point. They should just let him talk if they invite him to the show
Joe..talk less, listen more please....
It’s crazy how they are saying everything is good? They obviously don’t have to worry about money and don’t see what is really going on out there. CNBC, REAL PEOPLE ARE STRUGGLING!!!!!!!!!
We know
Can’t solve world problems. They are talking about a very specific thing unrelated to what you said. I wish you well though, you got this!
While Tom Lee wants 3-5 rate cuts this year.
This election year makes me feel like: don’t trust experts’ words. 🤐
I agree with Eisman, if the concern is high prices then for sure keep rates steady. I think industrial policy is more helpful than Fed.
Of course there should not be funds rate cuts this year, because the funds rate is not sufficiently restrictive. But that is not the only thing they have to worry about.
They only care about interest payments. The Fed has to lower rates to keep the ponzi scheme going longer. The scheme = the U.S.A
Recession is needed ASAP
You have a short position?
@kosta1987
First thing I thought of 😂
100% Agreed! It will happen come suddenly out of nowhere and it will be long and deep.
Maybe people are starting to see that the movie, though great, was not accurate
This guy got lucky once and now everyone thinks he’s the new stock messiah. He hasn’t done anything since.
Joe is so biased it hurts to watch.
no he provides a needed balance as Sorkin pumps his politics on the other side
Actually in this particular case he did a good job.
Print , Print , Print , ..........Spend , Spend , Spend , .......Okey....It's all good .......!!!
Steve, one of the smartest guys on Wall Street.
That was one of the most out of touch perspectives I’ve seen for a while. That’s someone who’s like yeah, my expenses are $5M/month but I still make $25M/month so the economy is great. Ask your local server or any adult below the age of 35. You could get a “true” perspective.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
If you lack knowledge about market investing tactics, get advice from a financial counselor.
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I could really use the expertise of this advsors.
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No rate cuts in an election year.. no chance.
I liked this today. He’s right. Things are really good, very nice and as investors naturally no one can believe it. This is on easier game mode; rare thing.
Steve is right. There is no point talking about a rate cut with a runaway economy.Let it self heal. Markets are designed to head to equilibrium
Healing since the dem spending ambush and inflation in 21.
The bonds vs stocks via interest rates dynamic is just not relavant because everything is just cruising along at mild rates, so it doesnt matter, and so why change the rates?
"The Economy is Fine" -- Steve Eisman
What hole is Eisman living in?
There is an incredible return on infrastructure investment. The feds need to keep interest rates up so that when a recession does hit they have the power to lower interest rates. It's their #1 defense against recession.
I hear Eisman saying that the economy looks fine for the rich. Yet in reality it's a fireball.
Clearly nothing like his movie fantasy character. Completely out of touch with the “little guy” on Main Street that his character pretended to care so much about.
Joe will always find something to complain about while loving the sound of his own voice...
The guest has it wrong. He said he is not calling for deflation
I am and here is why. If the Fed is claiming their 2% inflation target is both the goal and one the two dual mandates than we must have deflation for awhile. We we were running with high inflation during part of 2021 all of 2022 and.part of 2023. The Fed started hiking to late by their own admission. Therefore we need deflation for a 12-18 months or so to average the 2% looking back over the last two years. If not than we allow for high inflation and create new permanent high price hikes on things like rent, house prices, food, car sales etc etc If the Fed just focuses on a 2% target going forward without correcting for its own mistakes than the 2% target is bogus and the people get burned with permanent new higher costs over a short time frame. Essentially, what we need is a single mandate
Stable prices, low or no inflation, strong dollar policy. Prices going up will be a by product of supply and demand in the private marketplace
The cost of things generally go up a bit every 5 years so it’s possible to say that the inflation we have experienced is a normal rate of exposure.
Completely agree..No fed rate cuts..I talked about the Federal reserve's last meeting and inflation on my channel 2 weeks ago and give current updates
I’ll like to see a debate with Joe Scarborough MSNBC vs Joe Kernen CNBC About politics
congrats you are the only person on planet earth who wants that
How economy is fine, when we have highest ever DEBT which is growing rapidly ..,
Joe has lost his ability to focus on financial issues, as his personal political views obscue his ability to allow his guest to speak unencumbered.
Steve is right.
These people can't see outside their bubble. It's amazing
If I was a Judge . . . Joe gets called out for 'leading the witness' (doesn't work with Steve), Becky is both beautiful and smart , MSNBC awaits Andrew's introduction
This is the most clear as day distinction between Wall Street mega-millionaires and normal everyday people.
“But inflation is still around at like 30%”
“Eh yeah but we’re fine”
“People are struggling to pay for groceries”
“Yeah, but the economy’s fine”
“Fine for rich people like us maybe”
“Nah, everyone’s fine. Wages are up, they should be happy!”
rate cuts would mean higher inflation, more credit card debt, and savings losing purchasing power. lower borrowing costs would also mean more cheap robots / ai replacing jobs, which is deflationary. It's not ideal, but the economy is fine. people living in a bubble are mainly the ones complaining that it's not. Why wouldn't they want rate cuts if not to continue living in one?
News Flash! Billionaire not affected by price of eggs doubling in 3 years.
Typical “rich guy” talk about how everything’s great and inflation having gone up 30% is no big deal. We need to tax these elitists 30% more and see if he still thinks it’s no big deal.
Why none wants deflation? I want deflation. I want my purchasing power to increase. Only government and debtors want inflation at the expense of citizens.
So nobody will let the other person finish their sentence? Really?
Uh.. why should they cut rates? Because they are anticipatory not reactionary? That would be a start ..
Yes, you can't have everything. For example, you can't have a fiscal spending manufactured economy without hurting the middle class.
.... one wealthy guy in the room is seeing it from the perspective of the average person, the others are fighting tooth and nail that everything is fine, things are pretty good, yes the average person had less purchasing power and wage increases haven't kept up with inflation, but we've benefited from it because we own the businesses that have been little effected and much rewarded.
One reason to cut can be real rates are too high on historical basis... 5.5% rates with inflation at 2.5% don't make sense. Now, before they cut rates they have to make sure inflation is stable at least around 2.5%... and going to 2% next year, otherwise better not to cut because then they'll have to rise again next year. A better move would be beginning with yield curve control (YCC), say put a ceiling of 4.5%/5% or whatever number is appropriate on the 10-year, to control excessive long-term debt costs and let fed fund rates at 5.5% to make sure inflation does not pick up.
The American “dream” is shape shifting big time. Consumers will have to optimize their choices on every level and focus on long term security. Boats might not be rocking in this election year environment, but the tide is definitely going out.
Newsflash CNBC and guest: today's American prosperity is BORROWED prosperity.
Yes I agree! Fed has been so weak makes me sick
refinancing costs and earning will be problematic.
It is interesting that no guest will say the obvious. The stock market is up because of runaway government spending, it is not AI or productivity gains. The real question is what will happen to the stock market if the US deficient gets to 3-4% of GDP.
"The stock market is up because of runaway government spending."?
What are you talking about? How does government spending make stocks go up?
@@ClearOutSamskaras when the government gives huge contracts to Microsoft, amazon and defense companies that flows into their earnings. Increased earnings leads to increased stock prices.
This clip embodies the Leslie Nelson meme… everything is fine!
But higher interest rates push up prices in the first place, no?
Dive further into the rabbit hole beyond inflation to find what most non elitist people are angry at...and you will find a general dissatisfaction about many things. Truth is that inflation's just one statistic. Our media today continues to push a narrative that we should all shut up and take what we're given and be happy about it. Eisman once took time to visit Florida housing developments during the 08 market collapse to confirm his thesis...maybe he should get off the couch and do something similar this time.
Commodities are rising sharply so the Fed should raise rates. Inflation is too high.
On average, wages for lower income folks have actually been increasing at faster than the rate of inflation.
Joe dropping the hammer at the end! Wow
he said let them eat cakehad me rolling haha
I love how Steve has to take multiple moments here and there to stare into Joe's soul.
If CPI is going up at our current rates, how will inflation go down if we keep rates the same or lower them? We may have to accept that we simply will not see 2% inflation anytime soon. Most likely, the Fed will cut rates for the "soft landing" (recession). This is what happened in 2007/2008. But a soft landing with 2 percent inflation? Yeah right. We will have a recession with 4% CPI and years of stagflation.
Many of you are criticizing Eisman for saying the economy is doing well and therefore the Fed shouldn't lower rates. You point to the inflation you've personally experienced. Okay, but lowering rates - what Eisman is arguing against - would make inflation worse, not better. So if you're concerned about inflation you should be on Eisman's side here!
I think many of you are reading too much politically into this discussion, so much so that you don't realize that Eisman is arguing for a more hawkish position against inflation than the status quo, not a more dovish one. I think Eisman should have asked Joe...."Ummm, are you saying the Fed should lower rates? If you're concerned about inflation that makes no sense."
35 trill in debt to service............ make it 10% and see what happens!
Love it.....when everyone is complacent is when there ris no more.money left to go in...
Most people in his world are doing fine. The majority of average people are not fine
It is because everything is going fine i decided to reduce all my expenses by 30%. When economy will go bad and prices start normalise i might consider increase spending. I think each one of us should cut spending NOW.
Inflation is drastically down and the economy is great. I wouldn't lower rates. We're creating much healthier business operations without free money so that when the free money returns, it can actually go to real innovation.
Most intelligent people agree.