Why China, Japan And The Fed Are Shaking Up The $26 Trillion U.S. Treasury Market
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 พ.ค. 2024
- When investors think of the financial markets, the first thing that likely comes to mind is the stock market.
But there is a bigger, less-flashy counterpart to the equity market: the bond market. At the heart of the fixed income space lies U.S. Treasurys, one of the safest investments in the world.
"We have not paid attention to the Treasury market because it was a market for foreigners or for the Fed," said Priya Misra, fixed income portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "Now it's a market for all of us, and it's giving you better yield. So it's something which we should not ignore."
Buyers of U.S. Treasurys have been changing, with major players including China, Japan and the Federal Reserve seeing their respective holdings decline in recent years. The shift could have broad implications for the U.S. economy.
"What we're observing is that [the new buyers] are a lot more price sensitive," said Anders Persson, global fixed income chief investment officer at Nuveen. "They're just not quite as sticky."
Watch the video above to find out more about why major buyers are fleeing the U.S. Treasury market, the impact on yields and the economy at large, and how investors can best navigate the market going forward.
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
1:56 The $26.5 trillion U.S. Treasury market
3:29 Who are the buyers?
4:48 Changing of buyers
7:32 Impact on the economy
9:58 What’s next?
Produced by: Jeff Huang
Graphics by: Christina Locopo
Narrated by: Jordan Smith
Supervising Producer: Jeff Morganteen
Additional Footage: Getty
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Why China, Japan And The Fed Are Shaking Up The $26 Trillion U.S. Treasury Market
![[Vowel]물고기는 물에서 살아야 해🐟🤣Fish have to live in the water #funny](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/3G9MH063Cx4/mqdefault.jpg)
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $560K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategie;s ... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
Avert too-good-to-be-true con tricks. Consult a fiduciary counselor; these professionals are among the best in the business and offer individualized guidance to clients based on their risk tolerance. There are undesirable ones, but some with a solid track record can be excellent.
A downtrend offers an equally high-yielding avenue if you have the necessary skills and knowledge. This is why I've been using an investment advisor to scale up during this difficult time, and it's the only way I've been able to raise up to $150K in the last six months. It all comes down to technique. The downtrend gives you room to focus on the market and grow-substantially whether in the long or short run.
Please can you leave the information of your investment advisor here? I'm in dire need of one.
One of the fiduciaries I deal with is Jennifer Lea Jenson. Just check the name. There would be a letter with the necessary information to set up an appointment.
Thank you! I checked out Jennifer Lea Jenson's credentials on her website and it seems quite good! Hopefully, she's taking in fresh applicants because I sent her an email.
When USA seized the Russian holdings of assets ( inc the Tresuries) because of the war in Ukraine….the Chinese figured that the USA will seized their assets in the event of any arguments or conflicts.
When NATO seized the assets of individual Russians with no connection to the war …….the individual Chinese learned that it could have been them.
Yikes ….
BRICS affiliation got a lot more popular after the Russian Reserves were seized. The also grabbed the Afghan reserves, but Russia was a whole nother level.
Oh, these are individual buyers in China of government debt or is this China buying USA debt? It makes sense if individual Chinese don't want USA debt after they saw what happened to Russia.
LOL - The Chinese live in a country where the government seizes whatever it wants from whoever it wants.
@@Fighter4StreetChinese people are getting every penny they can out of China. Russia was a rich country until they decided they had to invade Europe to make their sickly leader look a little stronger. Now they're bankrupt.
Rule #1: Only the Chinese government can seize Chinese people’s assets freely.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
One of my goals is to employ the service of one this year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
Julie Hope Marble is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
I just checked her out and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon
In simpler terms:
1. Imagine Treasuries like loans we give the U.S. government, and they pay us back with interest.
Traditionally, big foreign countries (China and Japan) and the Federal Reserve were the biggest lenders.
2. Now, they're lending less, and new lenders are stepping in.
3. These new lenders might be more picky about the interest rate they get, potentially affecting the U.S. economy.
thanks
stock
how the Fed lends money to someone? what do they produce? are they Farmer or fisherman
? what do they produce to get that money? bad system
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Margaret Johnson Arndt for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
thank you for this tip , I must say Margaret, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
US bond are safe only for USA, not for independent minded countries
correct ..Surprise Sanction is here :)
Correct, because it’s a “sanctionable” bond
I would not want to hold USA government debt after seeing how they stole Russia money for basically Russia defending itself from USA military expansion on their borders.
Now USA wants to go after China for China wanting to take back its own land.
Not sure why Japan is dumping though, as they are a colony of USA basically and will not fall under USA sanctions.
If by independent, you mean countries that insist on the right to invade their neighbors or promote global terrorism you're right.
If by independent you mean countries that want to mind their own business and do what they want without attacking other countries you are wrong.
Why do you think your rights should include the right to infringe on my rights?
@@ericmaclaurin8525 I don't know where you are going with this but I bet you think it is OK for USA to invade and infringe on the rights of many countries around the world, but for Russia it is not OK, even though NATO is making a strategic move in Ukraine trying to use it to break up Russia, giving Russia no choice but to invade.
Russia even has said this is a red line for them for over 20 years, no hostile military alliance on their borders.
Worst time to buy US treasuries - it's become one of the most 'unsafe' assets for the future, although it's rating is still ostensibly AAA. The reason that most countries, like Japan and China, are dumping US Treasuries, is because they know that the US debt is unsustainable and the US Govt is likely to end up in a position, where it will not be able to pay back. It's a bubble waiting to burst - don't buy when the big guys are avoiding something.
If the us govt defaults, we will see the worst recession you can ever imagine. Its a financial nuclear bomb for which there is almost no fallout shelter that can save you.
50 cents deposited
*Who rated 🤭*
Wrong again! They're selling because they need cash and treasuries are the best asset to sell in ultra large quantities.
@@ericmaclaurin8525 what makes you think China needs cash? What is "cash" in your definition? If they're selling the US treasuries, what cash are they getting in return? You're not making sense at all. The reason they are dumping US dollars is because they are exchanging it for gold, which they know will not be subject to any kind of sanctions as it is not under America's control.
Like El Salvador president said, why do Americans pay taxes when treasury bonds are what pay for the government by the fed just printing more money and bond printed out to with no backing.
Because inflation.
Why have you never learned that you have to pay back money that you borrow?
US bonds are neither risk free nor secured for foreign buyers. If US doesn't like your country it may sanctioned and ban you from collecting your holdings. Ask Russians.
Well, Russians were actually wiser in dumping their US Treasury holdings way before the invasion.
I guess the US can’t sanction China then
U.S. doesn't realize they hurt their reputation by doing that to Russia.
@@SomeUserNameBlahBlah We're doing the same thing by restricting chips. We will soon be an island.
China has SSMB EUV lithography factory. 2nm chips will be sold this year. Bye bye Intel, AMD, Nvidia and Qualcomm
I read that Nvidia provides tech for crypto mining services/blockchain transactions. Could the current crypto pump be attributed to Nvidia’s great earnings and should I hold some crypto as well, cos tbh I’m having FOMO with the current crypto price at 64k.
Microstrategy CEO bought $155million worth of bitcoin, so yes BUY!
It’s going to be a wild year for these sectors, so you should def. invest in crypto. 60% of my portfolio is spread across tech stocks, crypto and Crypto/Gold ETFs.
well the crypto market is expected to do way better than any other equity sectors this 2024 especially with the SEC crypto ETF approval but it’s a volatile market nevertheless and if you’re new to it, it’s best to reach out to an experienced adviser for proper guidance.
Yes, my asset manager advised I spread further into mutual funds and crypto Etf and boy am I glad I did. The whole idea is: nt get too greedy and also to exit at the right time, so generally I do find having an adviser very helpful, because what Avg. Joe really has time to watch and comprehensively analyse the mrket./
could you recommend some good advisers? don’t get me wrong, I already have an asset manager, but he seems not to know much about crypto.,
The way US froze Russian Assets have consequences 😂😂😂
Clown🤣
Yeah, I recently started to buy treasuries too. Yield is high and plus you can dodge those state income taxes.
lol be carful there’s a reason they put this info out. If it benefits them do you think they’d tell you no! The economy may tank!
@@matthewculver3442 Putting aside the question of whether the statements in this video were honest suggestions, just the fact that you believe that the economy tanking would be a bad thing for treasury buyers right now, shows that you have no clue about investing.
If the economy tanks in the near future, current bond buyers would make a ton of money.
Go read a finance book.
@@GD-8not if us credit gets downgraded again. They havent reversed their spending (growing debt) , which was the main reason for downgrade.
@@GD-8 go ahead and buy them up then check back in a year let’s see how that works out for you! There’s a reason other countries stopped buying them!
@@GD-8 I don't think economy will tank. Why would it? JP raised interest so much and he might even increase more. He can easily reduce rates if economy is tanking for unexpected reasons.
The reason why yields are higher is because it's BECOME riskier to buy and they're getting more desperate to sell bonds..
What is the risk here?
The US defaulting ?
If so then its global financial meltdown and there is almost nothing you can do to protect yourself.
@@thunderb00m Amercian dollar is going to go down in pirchasing power... and Emergning markets will swing higer... this is where mjority of global population is... this is what was seen from 2000 to 2008
LOL high interest will force people with mortgages, and loans to work more productively by taking 2nd job or more just to survive. Thus, people need more petrol. That's why every time the Democrate wins, ExxonMobil and its friends will hit a new record on their net profit ever in human history.
@@thunderb00m gold and silver are protection
Reversing QE and ending oil imports are why rates are higher.
Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly
I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
Pls can you recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
美国股市价格太高了，建议在中国开个账户来买A股。那样你就会和中国股民一样痛苦。
scam
Lmao so other countries are not buying it because it's becoming risky and you want us to buy it?
What a meaningless statement
@@IsraelZavala clown
This is such a youtube comment.
Exactly! Bonds will be worthless when the US economy collapses
They want us to continue financing the US weapons industry.
There was a time when financial experts were horrified that large holdings of treasuries by China, and earlier Japan, were a great threat to the U.S.
It is a security risk for China to hold on to US bond. Freezing asset and sanctions will drive away foreign investment. How much longer can the US use these tools to bully other nations.
The real experts still are and still have a right to be horrified.
The government spends $2 trillion more than it collects in tax revenue by borrowing from the Federal Reserve, Japan, China, and the Social Security Trust Fund.
If the other countries around the world suddenly decide that the government is printing new dollars to pay the interest on the US debt they hold, the can dump the treasuries and or stop buying government debt in the future. This would be a massive problem as the government relies on a 1 trillion dollar trade deficit each year just to import the goods into America to stock the shelves.
So without Japan buying that trillion of debt each year, America is screwed.
We China 🇨🇳 Are #1
you American wihte are #2
I don't think financial experts were ever bothered. It was more financial "experts" that had a very nativist economic viewpoint, and objected to foreign debt on principle.
It's still an issue. If China decides to sell all ~$850B worth of Treasuries and no one is there to buy them, it will send a signal to the world that U.S. Treasuries are worthless because no one wants to purchase them. This will devastate the economy. To prevent this, the Treasury would have to buy back all ~$850B worth of Treasuries which will create more deficit.
How is the US bond market "the safest market"? We owe 33 or 34 trillion dollars. We can not even afford to pay the interest on that debt without raising the debt ceiling. Every few months, there's a threat of partial government shutdowns. Every time the government raises the debt ceiling, they essentially "kick the can down the road". That "can" (34 trillion dollar debt) is a huge metaphoric "can".
Huge can of whoop ass
US bonds have never defaulted with an open economy that gives consistent returns and dwarfs any other nations' markets. Its a very short list of countries that can match that
@porkypine602 Has the US ever spent 19 trillion dollars in 5-6 years? Let me ask you how many nations will put their faith in our fiat currency? The whole purpose of buying a bond is to earn interest, which is paid out in USD. Just in case you're slow (fiate currency = USD), we print that stuff. Nothing backing that USD but faith.
Yeah, this is the problem, people who don't understand how national debts work freaking out about the national debt. The rich will keep getting richer off of their ignorance.
@@MrFfrenchh the key word here is 'safest' what other market is as capital friendly as the US? the dollar is backed by the military , industry and oil. Yes it is a fiat currency and so is everything besides gold and there is a reason why no country is gold backed anymore. As long as oil is traded in US dollars, world's oceans are patrolled by the US military, the USD will be the safest market.
What other alternative is there? No other country can afford to keep a deficit high enough to be the dominant global currency. People have been predicting the fall of the USD for 50 years since the USD became a fiat currency and decifits exploded and no currency has come close to dethroning it.
Nice content, the background music is a bit over the top though
great video =)
Nobody talk about the falling credibility of US
Particularly sanctions😂
Why ate you afraid to talk about the sanctions bankrupting Russia? Everyone I know thinks they're funny, profitable and should be increased until Putin stops funding and committing terrorism.
Right ✅️
No one cares..usa was and is never important to anyone in the world
The reason investors are fleeing the bonds is mainly the rise of interest rates that caused their holdings to decline in value.
Debt papers should change to a Preferred Shares model which is perpetual. Just put term premiums for buyers who hold the preferred treasuries for 10 or 20 years. This way, when a foreign holder unloads, they would be the one looking for a buyer - unlike the current model which the foreign buyer simply waits till maturity and gets paid the principal, then the FED needs to look for new buyer of the debt that needs to be rolled over.
No need to borrow when you can just print money! It is that simple!
We still have high inflation way more than 4% probably 6-7%. It is compounded yearly. Inflation is slowing but still high and prices will not return to 2019 prices. So much free money, worse type of inflation, past few years. 2019 to now new car prices up 41%, used cars 32% with wages only 15% increase since 2019. Wages never keep up to cost of living mainly from inflation. You must have a business, stocks/bonds, and rental properties to stay ahead of inflation. Home prices have more than doubled in certain areas
Yeah but what good is house price rising? You can only realise the gain if you sell or loan against it. Selling is pointless as your sale sets the new benchmark high for every other house, And loaning against it means you need to earn cashflow and pay the higher rates. It’s just a scam. But the markets are the same, Ultimately, they all fall and you lose most of your worth.
Car prices are crashing and inflation last year doesn't mean we have inflation now just because you decide to be dishonest and use a 2019 comparison.
At least try.
Was this aired before at an earlier date?
many of the clips seem to be several months or a year or two old. There was one from Nov 2023. This does not seem to be 2024 material.
I see inflation picking up again. If it does, then the Fed can either raise rates or hope it's transient. Again.
Frankly, I think they (and Yellen) have the same courage and competence against inflation that Olaf Scholz demonstrates in the face of Putin's butchery - none.
That QE chart is factually wrong. It's missing the QE that occurred in March 2022 due to the lending facility they created for regional banks.
"With financial and economic conditions improving, the Fed started the process of balance sheet normalization in March 2022, whereby it intends to significantly reduce the amount of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that it holds in its System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio."
I disagree. With the government spending more than it did on the entire Great Financial Crisis every 6 months, I would say economic conditions are not improving.
Take the GDP for example.
Let’s say the government is broke and spends 100 trillion more than it has. It inflates the heck out of the dollar. Well, if you’re only paying attention to GDP to measure the strength of the economy, you’d be wrong to bet your apples when you see that GDP rose by a staggering 10,000% this year.
It's not wrong. From the Fed's own website:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to start tapering net asset purchases in November 2021, and net purchases ceased in early March 2022.
@@tc1231c Ok so when it lent out hundreds of Billions in March 2022 that wasn't Treasuries? Lol
@@jnp0921 You can check the Fed's balance sheet and you'll see a big increase then.
I don't like all this national debt. They don't have to pay it off, but stop giving tax cuts to rich people.
Too much debt to GDP and we have been running deficits for decades, in addition due to increase in
interest rate, we have to print more money to pay earnings and to service our debt!
Pretty straight forward. Oh, let’s not forget the unfounded liability…, SS for the seniors 😅😰
Game over!
SS is funded by the workers every day they work. Ignorant drama queens should learn before they speak.
I’m starting to look at this for the first time. I’m used to have savings, cd’s, stock, but never treasuries.
TBills are a good deal now, but I'm personally selling all my longer dated treasuries. Foreign buyers are down from 66% of issuance to roughly 33% now. With current and projected deficit levels, its hard to make a case for the individual investor to go too far out on the curve.
@@TheNewCarryTrade Yeah, 7-day rate is still over 5%.
Only clowns invest in bonds🤣
This is what happens when you don’t understand how important that everyone else is to your economy and braking and not creating trade agreements.
This will benefit pension funds and other investment types that require more security and guaranteed returns. Especially as more boomers retire and move towards fixed incomes higher yield treasuries will be a better investment. The biggest loser will likely be stocks as investors will be less likely to invest in companies that won't get more then that 5% return every year.
Inflation. You won't get 5% in treasuries.
@@daft9inety6ixer57 current 12 month is 5%
Not quite pal. Higher interest rates means the government has to go further into debt to pay back the interest. The government is broke. They can only collect what the receive in tax revenue. The result is that the government creates more inflation (by expanding the money supply) in order to pay back the interest on the debt they’ve issued. So the higher the interest rate promised by the government, the more inflation you can expect.
So even though higher interest rates sound good. If the money supply increases for every dollar of interest the government owes and inflation is 5%, you actually made a 0% real rate.
Buying fixed-interest rate securities hurts the American Economy, so long as our economy is growing slower than that fixed interest or inflation! It's free money for other foreigners, and I it worsens inflation. Am I wrong?
Buying government securities (treasury bills, notes, and bonds) hurts the private sector (the American Market) because the government needs to go further into debt in order to pay back the interest they owe on each government debt instrument that the public holds.
A higher interest rate locks in a higher deficit spending rate in Washington D.C. which results in the currency losing purchasing power.
The government can only spend what it collects in tax revenue. But it’s expenses are much more than what it collects, so they need to borrow more money by raising the debt ceiling and auctioning off more debt (treasuries) to the public.
Inflation is the expansion of the money supply and credit. The government and federal reserve are responsible for expanding the money supply.
The government prints up more treasuries out of nowhere..
Investors from all around the world including the Federal Reserve, Japan, China, other foreign governments and central banks, banks, pension funds, social security trust funds, and citizens in private sector buy up the government debt and the government promises a fixed interest rate.
Since the government spends $2 trillion more than it takes in through tax revenue each year, it needs to borrow the $2 trillion at whatever interest rate the federal reserve has set.
It needs to go further into debt just to pay interest to the debt holders (creditors). This process is both inflationary and a Ponzi scheme.
Things will continue to get more expensive as government deficit spending leads to expansion of the money supply (inflation) which drives prices up since there are more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services on the shelves. Demand exceeds supply. The supply of money proofed into existence, but the goods didn’t magically poof onto the shelves.
The federal reserve is also not helping the situation. They have a goal to raise the unemployment rate because they state that inflation steps from higher wages.
Inflation mainly comes from the federal reserve and US banks buying government treasuries.
The problem isn’t higher wages. The solution isn’t cutting jobs.
In order to offset all of the new money entering the economy, what need in America is more production. More goods producing jobs in the economy to help stock the goods on the shelves that all this new money is competing for. The government needs to stop borrowing so much to import all of the goods from other countries, and instead invest in manufacturing and productive jobs that can help with the supply on the shelves issue.
@@user-fn1fu6yo2z Great comment. Thank you! So are you suggesting that it would be better to keep the savings in my Bank HYSA or the stock market as it could free up money in the govts budget toward other more useful things?
Respect bro. True things said.@user-fn1fu6yo2z
Not really, Fed can create more $ out of nowhere anytime
@@user-fn1fu6yo2zWhat a sad display of long winded ignorance.
No mention of federal budget deficit which is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days
Everyone ask your local governor for YOUR interest-bearing central bank digital currency. Together we the people can put an end to deficit spending.
Judging from the comments I see total lack of understanding why risk free sovereign debt is purchased. It should be noted that all other debt is priced higher and probably more suitable for Consumers and the general public. The idea that there is a large domestic market for 10 year Treasury notes is probably not true although can be tried. China is an example of a very large economy that restricts sovereign bond holders almost exclusively to domestic buyers but has found that without international participation you aren't leveraging external capital investment
When the FED steps, it creates moneys to purchase bonds the government created. It is a fiat currency with private bank setting the rate backed by a government with the power to lay and collect taxes.
Clowns supporting clowns we know
2 year bond and below have better yield. Who will buy long term?
The yield is creeping up while the demand is reducing. The reason is the buyers see the US bond market prices worth to trend downward
No. The reason is that the US used to import oil and that is no longer the case. Imported oil sent dollars overseas that were used to buy treasuries.
@@ericmaclaurin8525 clown
Because of Decline in Exports.
Yep, and that way when they default (because they ultimately will) they will say you're a US citizen, we are wiping this debt.
There is still over 100 trillion worth of unfunded liabilities on top of our current national debt. The interest on all this alone is more than the country generates on all forms of taxation combined.
So tell me they will not default ...
Believing in Risk Free is risky
Fed does not need to hike rates since 10 year treasuries have increased increasing mortgage rates
Fed will not cut rates with still low unemployment. Needs to cool more/job losses. Plus cutting rates has inflationary pressures with already 34 trillion in debt and open borders. Ouch
@@Starship007they will cut rates because the current debt isn't manageable at current rates.
I don't invest in any fixwd security other than 12 month CD's with 5% interest AND I know i'm still losing to inflation! I'm in the market BUT it's way way TOO expensive por moi!
Very polite and casual way to announce the disasters to come!! Keep printing'em. The green.
Smart investors know treasuries start to bear credit risk, which was not the case in the past.
Our spending is out of control. Even if there is not a default, at the current rate, inflation will end up eating treasury returns. We are either heading for a period of slow growth, inflation, recession, higher taxation, or lower spending. There most likely will be a combination of these factors. My hope is that voters will elect politicians who won’t dig a deeper hole with more spending to try to compensate, but it’s just a hope. Stagnation and spending is the name of the game, and Bidenomics is the game. It’s just that both parties seem to play it when they are in power.
@@Triquetra15 thanks for expanding on it.
A bond is a promise by the borrower to pay back the capital with interest. Its only collateral is a paper with nothing more than a promise to repay with interest at whatever interest on the coupon. The question is why would anyone choose to buy a promise to pay versus the alternative of buying shares in a listed company with a proven business model which has a viable asset base that generates income and profit that pays a regular dividend. Bottom line is what an investor gets in return for his investment with an assured and tangible business model whose financials are subject to audit and governed by commercial law with financial statements to show tangible business practices within the self-checking rules of competition that are investors' safety nets. A bond is basically a promise by the borrower to pay back with interest but it has no assured defined business plan. It is just a blank check!
Must be expensive buying those master dollars with YEN.
I only follow the Buffet indicator. Out of market for now.
Your best hedges now are storable food, water purification, off grid electric, ammo, firearms, seeds, farmable land and community.
Those are hedges for high interest rates or being a terrorist who hates their own government.
@@ericmaclaurin8525 Saucy....
Bonds don't follow the fed. The fed follows the 2YY (ZT).
of course the amount of the bond sales is the amount of money the fed can print
Unless I’m an idiot, yes they do. I’m willing to be enlightened, but the FED’s sentiment indirectly drives yields from what I understand. However, I trade currencies, not bonds.
iirc, US bonds are mostly bought by foreign country, China for example, to keep the US's interest rate low, low interest rate means consumer has the ability to buy big purchase such as house or car, low interest rate also means consumer has more money to spend, since the US the follow consumerism, money will keep moving in the market. This is a good thing for country like China since they want a market that keep consuming the goods they export. It's a win-win situation for both countries
China and Japan have both stopped buying US debt. In fact, China has been selling much of it.
And btw, interest rates have risen almost 3 fold, since 2021, and holding around 5%. Wall street was thinking the Fed would reduce rates now, but it hasn't happened yet.
And when the impossible happens - inflation flairs again - then what?
Why the bond market disruption?
1. Trade balances. The US no longer importing oil means fewer dollars flowing overseas that used to return to buy treasuries.
2. Treasuries are emergency reserves for the world. Covid was an emergency that is still echoing around the world. They have been selling treasuries because they are the only asset that can be sold in any quantity without destroying the value of your remaining investment.
3. Trump literally multiplied US debt just to give corporations and the rich a big tax cut. Biden also had to add a bunch of debt to rebuild the economy post covid.
4. We've allowed massive wealth accumulation in the hands of people who do not support freedom. They have chosen to invest in seizing power and assets from voters instead of maintaining the infrastructure and consumer base that allowed many to build their wealth.
5. Reversing QE is how the above factors were allowed to poison the entire market in a way that will eventually bankrupt the country. No one can claim QE is a viable long term strategy, but anyone with basic money management skills knows that solving a budget issue doesn't start with increasing your expenses or quitting your job. QE should have been continued until a comprehensive transition plan could be implemented. That should have been a program that borrowed a trillion or so at those 1% interest rates and investing it into the economy in a way paid all of the money back with a return of more than one percent while at the same time growing the economy (or various other long term profitable things) so that we not only pay off the borrowed money but increase tax receipts to pay off other debt. Synergy is a long forgotten concept but it basically means do things that pay for themselves and then to use the extra capacity you've already paid for to do other things. Investing trillions you borrow at 1% for a 2% return is very profitable. When those trillions are invested in things that also grow the economy and grow tax receipts you can multiply your profit almost as many times as you want.
#3 is a big one. One that your average MAGA weenie doesn't quite grasp. We know Powell did, in fact, try to raise interest rates back in 2018 but Trump was actively pressuring the Feds the whole time til he finally backed off. What we're seeing now is those raise risen with a vengeance as a result of it. I believe another plus is many a saver is buying short term bonds which is always a good thing for the debt.
Powell's in no rush whatsoever to lower said rates. They're right where they should be, maybe another 25bps or so. Market and banks seem to have a hard comprehending that as well. His dovish tone's really playing with their emotions it would seem.
*nice commercial 👍*
Please don't listen to these people. Bonds are declining in value. Real interest rates a still negative. We are in the everything bubble. Commercial real estate defaults and the subsequent bank defaults will probably pop these bubbles. Only real assets, like precious metals, farm land, energy producers will weather the storm. Berkshire Hathaway is holding over 150B in cash. If bonds were such a good value, Warren would be buying.
Certain countries aren't buying at least partially because Western financial markets or any markets are no longer considered safe following the unprecedented freezing of Russian assets and trying to freeze them out of the entire financial system. Doesn't explain Japan but there's probably at least 2/3 of the world who stand to risk losing their assets held in the West in case the West decides they don't like what they're doing. Iran and NK were one thing but Russia is a major.
It's why there's significant concern over the long term economic impact on Western economies of confiscating Russian assets for Ukraine as it could cause the collapse of housing markets in many Western countries from overseas investor pullback as well as other professional and financial services as Western assets become toxic in a period of global competition.
the russian economy is tiny ,nobody worries about this if your worried stick your money in north korea ha ha
2/3 of the world is planning to invade another country?
Are you insane?
Figured it out hav you...
what else will they do when their money locked hidden in there and CNBC splurging with that
Don't even touch it with a piece of stick.
buy at your own risk...US its in a mess with soooo much debt
Bond and treasury has limited impact in US economy, especially bonds...That is the essence of bonds US bonds, seriousness and limitation...
if they are very very safe why does the world not want to buy them while they are paying better yields then they were 4-14 years. Because they aren't worth the paper they're printed on
What's the alternative? Which investment is more secure?
gold
I can buy Chinese manufactured goods for USD so not really.
@@kaustubhraizada the only asset in todays world that doesn’t have a debt bubble hovering over it
@@kaustubhraizada except you can't directly buy anything with gold.
this is an advetisement for American bonds by FED... stay away from that crap
100% next trap advertised
Also the people buying the USA treasury bonds ARE REINVESTING THEIR RETIREMENT INTERESTS AND DIVIDENDS BACK INTO MORE TREASURES EACH MONTH AND THEIR WEALTH IS GROWING! But only if they have the needed assets outside of their retirement accounts and Penision plans.
this is clearly just an ad buy so we can buy more treasuries, so the fed doesn't have to. Treasuries are not risk-free return, more like return free risk. Treasuries are by far the dumbest bond you can buy. Essentially with treasuries, as a tax payer, you are buying your own taxes back and then they tax you again for your gains from buying your taxes back. You will make more money buying high quality corp bonds or simply just putting your cash in a MM fund. Also, companies like AAPL and MSFT are technically more solvent than the US government. If the treasury keeps issuing these t bonds and there are no buyers, the fed will be forced to print more money and buy them. This will cause another wave of inflation similar to the 70s
Thank god for open market operations before the market opens 🤣😂😭😂😭
They make sense for Americans to buy because they're about as safe as the US dollar, and if that goes you're screwed anyway. Foreigners can look at geopolitical trends and make other bets.
The headline question of Foreign Treasury buyers and the Fed involving in the Treasuries market is not addressed. The so-called experts narrative about yield curve, rising interest rate and high coupon yield, selective ignore discussion about inflation rate, budget deficit and government fiscal stimulus programs. All requiring more Treasuries issuance to fund and will have a crowding out affect on private capital expenditures.
Domestic investors are being pushed into the fixed income markets with talking points of higher coupon yield without disclosure of market sentiment/guesses of when the Fed will raise interest rate and how much influencing yield volatility.
Foreign investors looks at real rate of return and not nominal yield rate of on-the-run Treasuries and have chosen to divert the matured capital to other usage because of the low-to-negative real coupon return from rolling the matured capital forward. As seen by the US FDI drop off in 2023 (y/y).
If the bond yields are high, interest rates get too high, and all investment and business activities go down.
If the bond yields are lowered, no foreign countries will buy them and money supply within USA shoots up, increasing inflation in USA. And the poor and Middle class people will get screwed.
Is it true that $8.9 T- Bill mature in 2024 ?
How are US going to fund such massive maturity, it's half of GDP.
"I have invested in bonds. James Bonds."
🤩Thank goodness you brought this up! I'm favoured, $60K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America,,
Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? I'm 29 now and would love to grow my portfolio and plan my retirement
Lisa Winters Financials is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name on google. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; I see she got her own channel on here on youtube but anyway thank you for sharing.
Her good reputation already speaks for her $
110k last month
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
Usa 34 trillion in debt with high inflation and BRICS nations working on versions WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY investors becoming nervous. As 10 year treasury increase, especially this month, so do home and car loans. The Fed does not have to scare people with higher interest rates, treasuries are doing that
Ah yes. Invest in the bric countries where China and Russia seize all of your assets at will with no recourse.
Good call!
"Normally when the FED starts to cut rates, that's the start of a bull market" ... **Checks Notes** .... August 2007
Guys who remembers the 2008 Bull Market? Anyone? I was in middle school so I didn't pay much attention to the economy at that time, How was it?
There must be a reason why the govt isn't demanding banks pay a fair amount of interest on savings accounts.
Because that would lead to poor outcomes.
@@jakeroper1096 how so
Let’s say you have 1 million dollars in your savings account. The bank can take 100% of your savings account and purchase treasuries or loan the money out for capital investments. We have record low savings in America, which is forcing interest rates to rise on credit. Due to low savings in America, the bank charges a high amount of interest because there is a low supply of money in people’s savings accounts.
The banks lost a ton of money last year when the fed raised interest rates several times. It rendered their portfolio of treasury bonds useless as the bonds that they purchased before the interest rate hikes only yielded 2 or 3%. Inflation was 9%. That meant a negative real return of 6 or 7%. This is what caused a massive bank bailout (BTFP) last year.
The banks are unhealthy because they invested a large sum of their portfolio in bonds and the bonds went under water.
This is likely why the government isn’t telling the banks what the should do for depositors.
A lot of banks are offering good interest rates, but you have to shop around. They don't bother updating the rates for existing customers.
That would obviously collapse everything
How will De Dollarization affect Treasury?
It won't. The U.S. dollar (Treasury) is highly sought after because it's backed by a stable economy and government. Not many nations can claim that.
Ignorant much? China is dumping US assets. Russia, India, UAE, KSA, Egypt, Brazil are dumping US dollar.
In the real world? About as much as switching to the mithril standard will.
Where is the Oxford comma?!
Pretty sure this video is sponsored by the Fed. Last day checked, the feds still had $7.5 trillion on the balance sheet. They will need to continue to sell or rolloff this to get inflation under control. I could even see them hiking rates again if inflation continues to spike. Unfortunately, these investors on the video are very long bonds 😅
Why buy bonds when NVDA is going up everyday?
You must be very regarded and you lack of perspective in financial markets shows how little you actually know
@@jitterrypokery1526 you really are that dumb to not recognize sarcasm?
Ah, a Gamestock devotee, I see.
@@jitterrypokery1526 you can’t recognize sarcasm?🤦🏻♂️
@@timogul what’s that?😂
US imports good and services and export Treasury Bonds. What happens to forex when your export declines. Yield may be high on a commodity that is worthless someday.
The US stopped importing oil and started exporting it. Do you have any concept of the impact on money flow?
Don’t believe this episode of the lying mainstream media 😂.
Does US Treasury need more bond buyers? Why not pay higher interest rates?
Those higher rates are paid through taxes.
The U.S. has way too much debt, too much to service right now, much less the future. Dollar depreciation will be the only possible consequence, and that means... inflation.
Good idea when down interest rate
Banks must have US treasury bonds in their portfolios, sure. But other than banks, I am really not sold of them at the moment. The thing is, its not a real asset. Its not something you can consume or use for manufacturing. And among all nations, where you could normally trust the US the most when it came to paying its debts, nowadays times are becoming quite different. We are rapidly approaching a very dangerous world, where wars are being waged. Natural resources, things humans need in order to live a modern life, those things become the most valuble asset in these times. For example, I would do something similar to what Bill Gates recently did - Buy a ton of farm land. It doesn't have to be exactly farm land, but you get my point.
There's no way I would be into buying of US treasuries. If the big fish are doing then pretty good indicator that you should be doing the same as well. And with the US dollar losing it's reserve status more and more each day thus other currencies being used in international trade then govs have less need for US treasuries to pay those bills thus they buy less and less.
Many of the BRICS+ nations are de-dollarizing so the FED and the suckers will be the buyers and then it collapses and they loose but the FED gets made whole and the little people gets the screwing
The demand for Treasuries has been steadily declining due to the growing weakness in the US economy. China and Japan are steadily dumping Treasuries at a slow rate to keep from undercutting the prices they can get. That's why the rate of return is rising.
The dollar is steadily losing value and being pressured by BRICS, at some point the petrodollar will no longer be accepted for oil and the US will be forced to turn to the BRICS currencies, then the US Dollar will lose its place as the world's' reserve currency.
Or you can go with the smoke this video is blowing.
CBDCs problem solved i believe. Staking would be like buying T-bills.
Conflict of interest all around
It's not the nominal yield, it's the real yield that is important and that is not at all attractive - this is just a marketing gimmick that won't fool intelligent investors.
USA has a huge debt ever n thus have high risk of recession which could make bonds bubble anytime soon.
Why would anyone using their hard earn paper trash to by another paper trash for yield that a lot lower than inflation rate is beyond my understanding.
Sounds like pretty much everything is but thanks for sharing I guess.
Are US Treasury Strips worth buying now?
No, The quoted CPI is less than the actual inflation rate
Why buy bond when you can get double that in an index, or mutual fund. Or even get a little more in an HYSA.
Only issue with HYSA versus a Bond is that the HYSA is subject to state taxes. Generally, that's nothing too crazy. They mention a 4% 10 year still being good, but HYSA, T-Bills, I Bonds, CD's, etc. are all 4.5-5.5%. I guess a guaranteed 4% locked in over 10 years sounds ok, but it's mediocre relative to the short term options out there right now. Mind you, 10 year Bonds used to be like 2-3% while T-Bills (short term) were sitting under 1%. There's a reason Bonds are supposed to have higher % returns, and it's concerning that shorter terms offer better yields.
Risk aversion.
stocks are volitile, why buy high and sell low? The stocks are at an all time high, wait for them to crash. In the mean time buy bonds. The US and China economies are failing. it won't be long till stocks do the same.
Bonds tend to have higher returns than an HYSA? (Current bond yields are ~5% vs HYSA ~4.4%). And an index (equity) inherently carries more risk; sure, you could double your money, but you could also half it at the same time. Bonds, while not riskless, are a far safer asset class.
Do some critical thinking
So overall the treasury auctions have been a disaster but for no reasons given, its all magically turning around in 2024 according to these experts.
How much can you get back if you invest 500k in treasury bond ? How does it work ?
You may have lost 40% as interest rates went up
That’s what happened to the banks. They took depositor money, bought low yielding treasury bonds with them and then interest rates and inflation went much higher than the treasury bonds yielding 2 or 3%.
The result was a huge loss and a huge bailout.
If a 4 week T bill which you reinvest every month, your $500k will yield 5.353% or $24,638 for the year.
Assets Backed by Nothing of Real Value ? Will go Boom ! 😢
Why are Japan and China lowering their us treasury balances when the yields are so high? Seems like Japan would benefit greatly from 4-5% us treasury when the Japanese risk free rate is negative bc of deflation.
Why? Because the Yen is very low vs the USD right now
Their overall balance of trade is falling, that’s why. Both China and Japan have trade surplus that is much lower vs the past, especially with the world overall. Hence, less surplus $ to buy UST. Without the US market to export to, both would have substantial trade deficits.
"Who wanted to use dollar in future?" this comment will aged like wine in 10 years 🤣