In simpler terms: 1. Imagine Treasuries like loans we give the U.S. government, and they pay us back with interest. Traditionally, big foreign countries (China and Japan) and the Federal Reserve were the biggest lenders. 2. Now, they're lending less, and new lenders are stepping in. 3. These new lenders might be more picky about the interest rate they get, potentially affecting the U.S. economy.
Hi, the Chinese bought US bonds because of the huge trade imbalance. As they sold much more to the US than the US sold to China, they were/are sitting on a big pile of dollars. So they bought US bonds to "park" that money. In recent years China has used its trade surplus to buy gold instead. On the long run, that is more dangerous to the American economy than picky domestic bond buyers who want a percent more yield.
Selling US Treasury debt and putting that capital in gold is a bet. China has given up their coupon payments and are hoping gold prices stay higher. Maybe they think some other Debt Market might be a better deal.
When USA seized the Russian holdings of assets ( inc the Tresuries) because of the war in Ukraine….the Chinese figured that the USA will seized their assets in the event of any arguments or conflicts. When NATO seized the assets of individual Russians with no connection to the war …….the individual Chinese learned that it could have been them. Yikes ….
BRICS affiliation got a lot more popular after the Russian Reserves were seized. The also grabbed the Afghan reserves, but Russia was a whole nother level.
Oh, these are individual buyers in China of government debt or is this China buying USA debt? It makes sense if individual Chinese don't want USA debt after they saw what happened to Russia.
@@Fighter4StreetChinese people are getting every penny they can out of China. Russia was a rich country until they decided they had to invade Europe to make their sickly leader look a little stronger. Now they're bankrupt.
I would not want to hold USA government debt after seeing how they stole Russia money for basically Russia defending itself from USA military expansion on their borders. Now USA wants to go after China for China wanting to take back its own land. Not sure why Japan is dumping though, as they are a colony of USA basically and will not fall under USA sanctions.
If by independent, you mean countries that insist on the right to invade their neighbors or promote global terrorism you're right. If by independent you mean countries that want to mind their own business and do what they want without attacking other countries you are wrong. Why do you think your rights should include the right to infringe on my rights?
@@ericmaclaurin8525 I don't know where you are going with this but I bet you think it is OK for USA to invade and infringe on the rights of many countries around the world, but for Russia it is not OK, even though NATO is making a strategic move in Ukraine trying to use it to break up Russia, giving Russia no choice but to invade. Russia even has said this is a red line for them for over 20 years, no hostile military alliance on their borders.
Economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be . I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Very true , I diversified my $400K portfolio across multiple market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate over $900k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds in few months.
‘’Jenienne Miniter Fagan’’ is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Worst time to buy US treasuries - it's become one of the most 'unsafe' assets for the future, although it's rating is still ostensibly AAA. The reason that most countries, like Japan and China, are dumping US Treasuries, is because they know that the US debt is unsustainable and the US Govt is likely to end up in a position, where it will not be able to pay back. It's a bubble waiting to burst - don't buy when the big guys are avoiding something.
If the us govt defaults, we will see the worst recession you can ever imagine. Its a financial nuclear bomb for which there is almost no fallout shelter that can save you.
Like El Salvador president said, why do Americans pay taxes when treasury bonds are what pay for the government by the fed just printing more money and bond printed out to with no backing.
US bonds are neither risk free nor secured for foreign buyers. If US doesn't like your country it may sanctioned and ban you from collecting your holdings. Ask Russians.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
One of my goals is to employ the service of one this year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne’ for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
thank you for this tip , I must say Margaret, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
With inflation at 3.70%, I'm looking to enter the market now and ride it out as the economy improves. I'm putting together a $350,000 portfolio with Stocks and ETF's. Do you have any recommendations with solid cash flow?
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
You're right, I and a few Neighbors in Bel Air Area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors. Instead of a lump sum purchase, Following this, my portfolio grew 40% in the last quarter.
Well, I chose *Jennifer Leigh Hickman* as my advisor after her interview on CNBC In 2020. She is SEC regulated with offices in the US and quite frankly a genius with portfolio diversification.
I just found her webpage and read through her educational background and qualifications, which were all very impressive. So I scheduled a call with her.
It is a security risk for China to hold on to US bond. Freezing asset and sanctions will drive away foreign investment. How much longer can the US use these tools to bully other nations.
The real experts still are and still have a right to be horrified. The government spends $2 trillion more than it collects in tax revenue by borrowing from the Federal Reserve, Japan, China, and the Social Security Trust Fund. If the other countries around the world suddenly decide that the government is printing new dollars to pay the interest on the US debt they hold, the can dump the treasuries and or stop buying government debt in the future. This would be a massive problem as the government relies on a 1 trillion dollar trade deficit each year just to import the goods into America to stock the shelves. So without Japan buying that trillion of debt each year, America is screwed.
I don't think financial experts were ever bothered. It was more financial "experts" that had a very nativist economic viewpoint, and objected to foreign debt on principle.
It's still an issue. If China decides to sell all ~$850B worth of Treasuries and no one is there to buy them, it will send a signal to the world that U.S. Treasuries are worthless because no one wants to purchase them. This will devastate the economy. To prevent this, the Treasury would have to buy back all ~$850B worth of Treasuries which will create more deficit.
@@matthewculver3442 Putting aside the question of whether the statements in this video were honest suggestions, just the fact that you believe that the economy tanking would be a bad thing for treasury buyers right now, shows that you have no clue about investing. If the economy tanks in the near future, current bond buyers would make a ton of money. Go read a finance book.
@@EastMilk go ahead and buy them up then check back in a year let’s see how that works out for you! There’s a reason other countries stopped buying them!
@@EastMilk I don't think economy will tank. Why would it? JP raised interest so much and he might even increase more. He can easily reduce rates if economy is tanking for unexpected reasons.
@@thunderb00m Amercian dollar is going to go down in pirchasing power... and Emergning markets will swing higer... this is where mjority of global population is... this is what was seen from 2000 to 2008
LOL high interest will force people with mortgages, and loans to work more productively by taking 2nd job or more just to survive. Thus, people need more petrol. That's why every time the Democrate wins, ExxonMobil and its friends will hit a new record on their net profit ever in human history.
How is the US bond market "the safest market"? We owe 33 or 34 trillion dollars. We can not even afford to pay the interest on that debt without raising the debt ceiling. Every few months, there's a threat of partial government shutdowns. Every time the government raises the debt ceiling, they essentially "kick the can down the road". That "can" (34 trillion dollar debt) is a huge metaphoric "can".
US bonds have never defaulted with an open economy that gives consistent returns and dwarfs any other nations' markets. Its a very short list of countries that can match that
@porkypine602 Has the US ever spent 19 trillion dollars in 5-6 years? Let me ask you how many nations will put their faith in our fiat currency? The whole purpose of buying a bond is to earn interest, which is paid out in USD. Just in case you're slow (fiate currency = USD), we print that stuff. Nothing backing that USD but faith.
Yeah, this is the problem, people who don't understand how national debts work freaking out about the national debt. The rich will keep getting richer off of their ignorance.
@@MrFfrenchh the key word here is 'safest' what other market is as capital friendly as the US? the dollar is backed by the military , industry and oil. Yes it is a fiat currency and so is everything besides gold and there is a reason why no country is gold backed anymore. As long as oil is traded in US dollars, world's oceans are patrolled by the US military, the USD will be the safest market. What other alternative is there? No other country can afford to keep a deficit high enough to be the dominant global currency. People have been predicting the fall of the USD for 50 years since the USD became a fiat currency and decifits exploded and no currency has come close to dethroning it.
Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly
I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
I read that Nvidia provides tech for crypto mining services/blockchain transactions. Could the current crypto pump be attributed to Nvidia’s great earnings and should I hold some crypto as well, cos tbh I’m having FOMO with the current crypto price at 64k.
It’s going to be a wild year for these sectors, so you should def. invest in crypto. 60% of my portfolio is spread across tech stocks, crypto and Crypto/Gold ETFs.
well the crypto market is expected to do way better than any other equity sectors this 2024 especially with the SEC crypto ETF approval but it’s a volatile market nevertheless and if you’re new to it, it’s best to reach out to an experienced adviser for proper guidance.
Yes, my asset manager advised I spread further into mutual funds and crypto Etf and boy am I glad I did. The whole idea is: nt get too greedy and also to exit at the right time, so generally I do find having an adviser very helpful, because what Avg. Joe really has time to watch and comprehensively analyse the mrket./
Former US grand strategist Zbignew Brzezinski said: "It is IMPERATIVE that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America". Because the US has just 4% of the world's population, and it's isolated from the Eurasia continent which has 70% of the world's population, or 87% with Africa included. Defensively, it's an advantage to the US, but economically, it's a handicap. That's why economically, Eurasia is a competitor to the US and the Euro is a threat to the dollar. How does the US with an isolated and just 4% of world's population maintain its position as the world's biggest economy? The dollar must stay as the world's reserve currency. This allows the size of the US economy to be highly scaled up, instead of being sized according to the fundamentals. To be the world's reserve currency, the dollar must be circulated in the world. The US created a huge consumption-based economy and shifted manufacturing outside, so that dollars flow out of the US to product suppliers like China or Japan. To make products, China and Japan need energy. The US created the Petrol-dollar scheme, so that dollar is circulated to Saudi. With the US stock and financial market much more lucrative than other countries, the dollars from Saudi are attracted back to the US. Money printed in the US to exchange for goods from outside eventually ends up with the Wall Streets, where the rich gets richer. And that completes the cycle of circulation of the dollars. The American Dream attracted top talents around the world to strengthen the US' science and technology sectors, and a technological gap is maintained between the US and other major economy like China, so that the US benefits from highly lucrative high-tech product/patent exports, while low profit manufacturing sector is outsourced to China and Vietnam. This is why world leader in 5G, Huawei, are banned in 2019. If China or Japan bring back all the dollars and exchange to their local currencies, it inflates the local currencies, making their exports expensive. So, China and Japan use some of the dollars to buy US debts (treasury bonds). That's why the US, a rich country, is in-debt to China which has just 1/5th of the US' GDP per capita. And by holding US treasury bills, China and Japan have to support the US dollar, for if the US dollar collapses, their hard earn money would become worthless. After Obama's "Pivot to Asia" in 2011, which aimed to contain China, China introduced the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) in 2013 and diverted some of the dollars into it to reduce the risk of putting all eggs in one basket, and hoping that after these countries are developed, China would have a wider trade market. With a huge population, if Asia and Africa develop rapidly, the share of the US' economy shrinks, then the Euro could replace it as the world's reserve currency. When that happens, the US would no longer be able to print money out of nothing without a hyper inflation like Venezuela. Then the size of the US economy has to fall back to the fundamentals, which today is quite a lot smaller than the inflated economy. That's why no country in Eurasia is allowed to catch up with the US' economy. When Japan was catching up fast on the US in the 1980s, they were knocked down to a three decade stagnancy by appreciating the Japanese Yen. And in the last 30 years, the US created conflicts, wars and color revolutions in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa to destabilise the Eurasia-Africa supercontinent. When the US prints a lot of money, other countries' foreign reserves in dollars shrink in value. Furthermore, to prevent exports to the US becoming expensive, these countries have to print money too, which devalues the savings of the people, and causing inflations in these countries. It's estimated that our savings devalue by 6-9% per year after the abolishment of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system, after which the US prints money based on just the creditability of the dollar. North America is relatively easy to defend, yet the US has a military budget more than the total of the next 9 countries in the top 10, to protect the dollar with its 800 military bases worldwide. For the record, the US had no mercy on threats to the dollar: In 2000 Saddam Hussein said he would start selling oil in Euros not Dollars. > Saddam was hanged by the US. In 2009 Gaddafi made Libya export oil in Gold Dinars, not in dollar or Euro. > Gaddafi was killed by US-backed NTC. Syria had an independent Central Bank NOT under Federal Reserve controlled Bank of International Settlements. >> Obama attempted to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. Iran has been trading oil in currencies other than US dollars since 2011. > Iran was being sanctioned by the US. After being sanctioned in 2014, Putin started to trade in non-dollar. In 2019, Putin completely ditched dollars in oil trades, sold almost all the US treasury bonds, is now the forerunner in de-dollarization. > The US tried to topple Putin by supporting Alexei Navalny. And now the Ukraine war to weaken Russia China (1) introduced the BRI in 2013 which helps many countries to develop and speed up the integration of Eurasia, (2) used non-dollar in oil trades with Iran and Russia, (3) introduced the CIPS, an alternative to the West's SWIFT system which has been weaponized by America, (4) China's economy and high technology are catching up fast. >> China has become the US' #1 target. If a country supports the dollar, it's being looted; if a country doesn't support the dollar, the government is changed by the US. This is financial slavery. The Fed has printed 80% of all US dollars in existence since Jan 2020. There was $4.02 trillion dollars in circulation at the beginning of 2020. The number reached $20.08 trillion by Oct 2021. This amounted to an astronomical 34 trillions debt. Coupled with a global rising urge to diversify into non-dollar reserves caused by the US' sanctions to 39 countries, the dollar is in a creditability crisis. This is the major development which shapes geopolitics in the world today. The US cannot have direct wars with Russia and China because they are nuclear armed. Proxy wars put the battlefields outside of the US, and the US would looked like an outsider. Remember in the 1980s, the US supported the Afghan Mujaheddin in a proxy war against the USSR. Russia and China have clearly defined their redlines. Us would use its collaborators Zelensky and Tsai to push across the redlines to trigger the wars, and it would sell weapons to its allies in NATO and AUKUS, and get them to support the wars. After the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, US President Bill Clinton had two choices: to integrate Russia into Europe and abolish NATO, OR, to slowly alienate Russia to keep Russia and Europe divided. Clinton chose the latter, because if there's no more Russia "threat", there would be no more NATO to control Europe. As the first NATO Secretarv General. Lionel Ismav described the military role of NATO: "To keep America IN, to keep Russia OUT, to keep Germany (Europe) DOWN". NATO also allows the US to place missiles in Europe, so if a war break out in Europe, missiles would be flying between Moscow the East and Lisbon in the West, while the US remains safe across the Atlantic. And politically, the EU is an American creation, as much as a European one. It's much easier for Washington to control ruling elites at Brussels than having to control all politicians in Europe. The EU is used an ally or a sacrificial depending on the geopolitical needs of Washington. The proxy war in Ukraine: 1.Divided Europe from Russia and divided Eurasia. 2. Killed Nord Stream Il gas pipeline and German firm Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg has signed up for gas from America Venture Global LNG for 20 years. The US gained control over energy supply to Europe. 3. Created continuity for the Military Industrial Complex after pulling out of Afghanistan. 4. Most importantly, the war strengthened the dollar. Dollar against Euro is now the highest since NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia in Mar 1999 (happened two months after the official launch of Euro as the currency of the EU, which threatened the dollar). A strong dollar together with the Fed's interest rise in 2022 cause capitals from all over the world to flow into the US' economy, while collapsing other economies, like Sri Lanka. Else where, two months after ignoring a warning from Washington against his visit to Moscow, highly popular Imran Khan was ousted from the PM post of Pakistan on 9 Apr 2022. A month after ignoring Biden's demand to increase oil production, secretary-general of OPEC, Mohammad Barkindo died unexpectedly on July 6 2022. The US isn't relinquishing its privilege to loot. Remember after WW II, Europe and Asia were devastated, but the US emerged as the world leader and the dollar became the world's reserve currency.
And there you have the explanation almost in a nutshell! Let me ask you something friend Mahesh. Because WW1 and WW2 were most assuredly produced by Europe (and Japan) would you have preferred a different outcome? Would you have preferred the "world's" economic and military superpower spoke German, Russian or Japanese perhaps?? USA didn't start nor want to become embroiled in either war thus, since it emerged as the strongest in every way, it took a good world economic idea and put it into practice, creating the most wealth for the most people (not ALL people by any means) ever in its history by implementing a "rules based" global order which, of course, some entities had to greedily game by intellectual property theft! We're by no means perfect but because of people whom hold a NOT completely TRUE understanding of it all you are all going to miss the "Pax Americana" when its gone, mark me well but you don't realize how good you've had it!
Too much debt to GDP and we have been running deficits for decades, in addition due to increase in interest rate, we have to print more money to pay earnings and to service our debt! Pretty straight forward. Oh, let’s not forget the unfounded liability…, SS for the seniors 😅😰 Game over!
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $560K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategie;s ... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
A downtrend offers an equally high-yielding avenue if you have the necessary skills and knowledge. This is why I've been using an investment advisor to scale up during this difficult time, and it's the only way I've been able to raise up to $150K in the last six months. It all comes down to technique. The downtrend gives you room to focus on the market and grow-substantially whether in the long or short run.
One of the fiduciaries I deal with is Jennifer Lea Jenson. Just check the name. There would be a letter with the necessary information to set up an appointment.
Thank you! I checked out Jennifer Lea Jenson's credentials on her website and it seems quite good! Hopefully, she's taking in fresh applicants because I sent her an email.
Please remember to hire and pay the treasury accounts to keep up with every allotment account and to pay for the insurance in the event that there is theft are loss of property
I was trying to think of something to include in the inclement weather or food boxes for light and heat just in case the electricity is knocked out but I haven't thought of what the place in them other than candles
Please don't listen to these people. Bonds are declining in value. Real interest rates a still negative. We are in the everything bubble. Commercial real estate defaults and the subsequent bank defaults will probably pop these bubbles. Only real assets, like precious metals, farm land, energy producers will weather the storm. Berkshire Hathaway is holding over 150B in cash. If bonds were such a good value, Warren would be buying.
Yep, and that way when they default (because they ultimately will) they will say you're a US citizen, we are wiping this debt. There is still over 100 trillion worth of unfunded liabilities on top of our current national debt. The interest on all this alone is more than the country generates on all forms of taxation combined. So tell me they will not default ...
This is marketing to sell bonds to retail investors. In reality, such a move just shows that the lack of foreign demand for treasuries is starting to worry decision makers in DC and in the big banks.
The rules for the satellite competition spending budget there was a $10 entry fee and between 1990 and 1991 we were only allowed to spend $500 to build our satellites my ISS satellite did come in under budget the the NOAA satellite May cost a little more because the Noah satellite was designed and built with lava magma proof materials and can also withstand the cold to Sub-Zero temperatures
Judging from the comments I see total lack of understanding why risk free sovereign debt is purchased. It should be noted that all other debt is priced higher and probably more suitable for Consumers and the general public. The idea that there is a large domestic market for 10 year Treasury notes is probably not true although can be tried. China is an example of a very large economy that restricts sovereign bond holders almost exclusively to domestic buyers but has found that without international participation you aren't leveraging external capital investment
When the FED steps, it creates moneys to purchase bonds the government created. It is a fiat currency with private bank setting the rate backed by a government with the power to lay and collect taxes.
They didn't mention about interest rate risk or duration risk. When the US Federal Reserve hiked the interest rates, the value of your treasury holdings fell. The Feds increased the rates to combat inflation, the increase rates is hoped to slowdown the economy and reduced dollars circulation leading to stronger dollar, etc etc. But increased rates also have my side effects, one of which lowering the value of their long term bonds. For foreign banks, buying these US treasuries mean they will have to exchanged their currency to dollars. Now imagine the rates of exchange before and after the hike of interest rates. They are borrowing dollars to buy bonds that made lower yield than their borrowing rates. Literally losing money. This is the case with one of Japanese big bank Norinchuukin. China also dumping billions of US treasuries despite losing money. The US monetary policies is far from stable and any decision the feds made and will make will affect their treasuries.
We still have high inflation way more than 4% probably 6-7%. It is compounded yearly. Inflation is slowing but still high and prices will not return to 2019 prices. So much free money, worse type of inflation, past few years. 2019 to now new car prices up 41%, used cars 32% with wages only 15% increase since 2019. Wages never keep up to cost of living mainly from inflation. You must have a business, stocks/bonds, and rental properties to stay ahead of inflation. Home prices have more than doubled in certain areas
Yeah but what good is house price rising? You can only realise the gain if you sell or loan against it. Selling is pointless as your sale sets the new benchmark high for every other house, And loaning against it means you need to earn cashflow and pay the higher rates. It’s just a scam. But the markets are the same, Ultimately, they all fall and you lose most of your worth.
Car prices are crashing and inflation last year doesn't mean we have inflation now just because you decide to be dishonest and use a 2019 comparison. At least try.
"With financial and economic conditions improving, the Fed started the process of balance sheet normalization in March 2022, whereby it intends to significantly reduce the amount of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that it holds in its System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio."
I disagree. With the government spending more than it did on the entire Great Financial Crisis every 6 months, I would say economic conditions are not improving. Take the GDP for example. Let’s say the government is broke and spends 100 trillion more than it has. It inflates the heck out of the dollar. Well, if you’re only paying attention to GDP to measure the strength of the economy, you’d be wrong to bet your apples when you see that GDP rose by a staggering 10,000% this year.
It's not wrong. From the Fed's own website: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to start tapering net asset purchases in November 2021, and net purchases ceased in early March 2022.
Fed will not cut rates with still low unemployment. Needs to cool more/job losses. Plus cutting rates has inflationary pressures with already 34 trillion in debt and open borders. Ouch
this is clearly just an ad buy so we can buy more treasuries, so the fed doesn't have to. Treasuries are not risk-free return, more like return free risk. Treasuries are by far the dumbest bond you can buy. Essentially with treasuries, as a tax payer, you are buying your own taxes back and then they tax you again for your gains from buying your taxes back. You will make more money buying high quality corp bonds or simply just putting your cash in a MM fund. Also, companies like AAPL and MSFT are technically more solvent than the US government. If the treasury keeps issuing these t bonds and there are no buyers, the fed will be forced to print more money and buy them. This will cause another wave of inflation similar to the 70s
I would ask that the technologically advanced cabins also be built so that they can become handicap accessible and elderly accessible for the injured sick and disabled and for growing old
I see inflation picking up again. If it does, then the Fed can either raise rates or hope it's transient. Again. Frankly, I think they (and Yellen) have the same courage and competence against inflation that Olaf Scholz demonstrates in the face of Putin's butchery - none.
TBills are a good deal now, but I'm personally selling all my longer dated treasuries. Foreign buyers are down from 66% of issuance to roughly 33% now. With current and projected deficit levels, its hard to make a case for the individual investor to go too far out on the curve.
Also the people buying the USA treasury bonds ARE REINVESTING THEIR RETIREMENT INTERESTS AND DIVIDENDS BACK INTO MORE TREASURES EACH MONTH AND THEIR WEALTH IS GROWING! But only if they have the needed assets outside of their retirement accounts and Penision plans.
iirc, US bonds are mostly bought by foreign country, China for example, to keep the US's interest rate low, low interest rate means consumer has the ability to buy big purchase such as house or car, low interest rate also means consumer has more money to spend, since the US the follow consumerism, money will keep moving in the market. This is a good thing for country like China since they want a market that keep consuming the goods they export. It's a win-win situation for both countries
And btw, interest rates have risen almost 3 fold, since 2021, and holding around 5%. Wall street was thinking the Fed would reduce rates now, but it hasn't happened yet.
Debt papers should change to a Preferred Shares model which is perpetual. Just put term premiums for buyers who hold the preferred treasuries for 10 or 20 years. This way, when a foreign holder unloads, they would be the one looking for a buyer - unlike the current model which the foreign buyer simply waits till maturity and gets paid the principal, then the FED needs to look for new buyer of the debt that needs to be rolled over.
Lol.. us treasuries are a asset 😅. No kiddo.theyre a liability. And they're completely unsafe. Because government can devalue the currency while you're locked into a rate. (See svb) I laughed. Japan prints money buys u.s. bonds. U.s. prints money buys Japanese bonds.. it's only a matter of time... Ticking time bomb
The demand for Treasuries has been steadily declining due to the growing weakness in the US economy. China and Japan are steadily dumping Treasuries at a slow rate to keep from undercutting the prices they can get. That's why the rate of return is rising. The dollar is steadily losing value and being pressured by BRICS, at some point the petrodollar will no longer be accepted for oil and the US will be forced to turn to the BRICS currencies, then the US Dollar will lose its place as the world's' reserve currency. Or you can go with the smoke this video is blowing.
Why the bond market disruption? 1. Trade balances. The US no longer importing oil means fewer dollars flowing overseas that used to return to buy treasuries. 2. Treasuries are emergency reserves for the world. Covid was an emergency that is still echoing around the world. They have been selling treasuries because they are the only asset that can be sold in any quantity without destroying the value of your remaining investment. 3. Trump literally multiplied US debt just to give corporations and the rich a big tax cut. Biden also had to add a bunch of debt to rebuild the economy post covid. 4. We've allowed massive wealth accumulation in the hands of people who do not support freedom. They have chosen to invest in seizing power and assets from voters instead of maintaining the infrastructure and consumer base that allowed many to build their wealth. 5. Reversing QE is how the above factors were allowed to poison the entire market in a way that will eventually bankrupt the country. No one can claim QE is a viable long term strategy, but anyone with basic money management skills knows that solving a budget issue doesn't start with increasing your expenses or quitting your job. QE should have been continued until a comprehensive transition plan could be implemented. That should have been a program that borrowed a trillion or so at those 1% interest rates and investing it into the economy in a way paid all of the money back with a return of more than one percent while at the same time growing the economy (or various other long term profitable things) so that we not only pay off the borrowed money but increase tax receipts to pay off other debt. Synergy is a long forgotten concept but it basically means do things that pay for themselves and then to use the extra capacity you've already paid for to do other things. Investing trillions you borrow at 1% for a 2% return is very profitable. When those trillions are invested in things that also grow the economy and grow tax receipts you can multiply your profit almost as many times as you want.
#3 is a big one. One that your average MAGA weenie doesn't quite grasp. We know Powell did, in fact, try to raise interest rates back in 2018 but Trump was actively pressuring the Feds the whole time til he finally backed off. What we're seeing now is those raise risen with a vengeance as a result of it. I believe another plus is many a saver is buying short term bonds which is always a good thing for the debt. Powell's in no rush whatsoever to lower said rates. They're right where they should be, maybe another 25bps or so. Market and banks seem to have a hard comprehending that as well. His dovish tone's really playing with their emotions it would seem.
A bond is a promise by the borrower to pay back the capital with interest. Its only collateral is a paper with nothing more than a promise to repay with interest at whatever interest on the coupon. The question is why would anyone choose to buy a promise to pay versus the alternative of buying shares in a listed company with a proven business model which has a viable asset base that generates income and profit that pays a regular dividend. Bottom line is what an investor gets in return for his investment with an assured and tangible business model whose financials are subject to audit and governed by commercial law with financial statements to show tangible business practices within the self-checking rules of competition that are investors' safety nets. A bond is basically a promise by the borrower to pay back with interest but it has no assured defined business plan. It is just a blank check!
I learned the risk free rate in school but always wondered how it is risk free? Simply cuz it’s guaranteed by USA? That’s not good enough to me. I accepted it so I could pass my module. It’s just math to get answers but I don’t really buy it though.
Buying fixed-interest rate securities hurts the American Economy, so long as our economy is growing slower than that fixed interest or inflation! It's free money for other foreigners, and I it worsens inflation. Am I wrong?
Buying government securities (treasury bills, notes, and bonds) hurts the private sector (the American Market) because the government needs to go further into debt in order to pay back the interest they owe on each government debt instrument that the public holds. A higher interest rate locks in a higher deficit spending rate in Washington D.C. which results in the currency losing purchasing power. The government can only spend what it collects in tax revenue. But it’s expenses are much more than what it collects, so they need to borrow more money by raising the debt ceiling and auctioning off more debt (treasuries) to the public. Inflation is the expansion of the money supply and credit. The government and federal reserve are responsible for expanding the money supply. The government prints up more treasuries out of nowhere.. Investors from all around the world including the Federal Reserve, Japan, China, other foreign governments and central banks, banks, pension funds, social security trust funds, and citizens in private sector buy up the government debt and the government promises a fixed interest rate. Since the government spends $2 trillion more than it takes in through tax revenue each year, it needs to borrow the $2 trillion at whatever interest rate the federal reserve has set. It needs to go further into debt just to pay interest to the debt holders (creditors). This process is both inflationary and a Ponzi scheme. Things will continue to get more expensive as government deficit spending leads to expansion of the money supply (inflation) which drives prices up since there are more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services on the shelves. Demand exceeds supply. The supply of money proofed into existence, but the goods didn’t magically poof onto the shelves. The federal reserve is also not helping the situation. They have a goal to raise the unemployment rate because they state that inflation steps from higher wages. Inflation mainly comes from the federal reserve and US banks buying government treasuries. The problem isn’t higher wages. The solution isn’t cutting jobs. In order to offset all of the new money entering the economy, what need in America is more production. More goods producing jobs in the economy to help stock the goods on the shelves that all this new money is competing for. The government needs to stop borrowing so much to import all of the goods from other countries, and instead invest in manufacturing and productive jobs that can help with the supply on the shelves issue.
@@BryanKatzman-h4n Great comment. Thank you! So are you suggesting that it would be better to keep the savings in my Bank HYSA or the stock market as it could free up money in the govts budget toward other more useful things?
They make sense for Americans to buy because they're about as safe as the US dollar, and if that goes you're screwed anyway. Foreigners can look at geopolitical trends and make other bets.
If the bond yields are high, interest rates get too high, and all investment and business activities go down. If the bond yields are lowered, no foreign countries will buy them and money supply within USA shoots up, increasing inflation in USA. And the poor and Middle class people will get screwed.
Why ate you afraid to talk about the sanctions bankrupting Russia? Everyone I know thinks they're funny, profitable and should be increased until Putin stops funding and committing terrorism.
if they are very very safe why does the world not want to buy them while they are paying better yields then they were 4-14 years. Because they aren't worth the paper they're printed on
All these political bashing, isn’t this all about investment? If treasury is not safe, do you think put large amount money in Bitcoin or gold is better? Or any of you intend to put money in China, Japan, Russia bond? I put money in mutual fund holding some Ukraine bond, we all know how it turn out, I really like to know your suggestion for safer alternative.
Let’s say you have 1 million dollars in your savings account. The bank can take 100% of your savings account and purchase treasuries or loan the money out for capital investments. We have record low savings in America, which is forcing interest rates to rise on credit. Due to low savings in America, the bank charges a high amount of interest because there is a low supply of money in people’s savings accounts. The banks lost a ton of money last year when the fed raised interest rates several times. It rendered their portfolio of treasury bonds useless as the bonds that they purchased before the interest rate hikes only yielded 2 or 3%. Inflation was 9%. That meant a negative real return of 6 or 7%. This is what caused a massive bank bailout (BTFP) last year. The banks are unhealthy because they invested a large sum of their portfolio in bonds and the bonds went under water. This is likely why the government isn’t telling the banks what the should do for depositors.
Unless I’m an idiot, yes they do. I’m willing to be enlightened, but the FED’s sentiment indirectly drives yields from what I understand. However, I trade currencies, not bonds.
Our spending is out of control. Even if there is not a default, at the current rate, inflation will end up eating treasury returns. We are either heading for a period of slow growth, inflation, recession, higher taxation, or lower spending. There most likely will be a combination of these factors. My hope is that voters will elect politicians who won’t dig a deeper hole with more spending to try to compensate, but it’s just a hope. Stagnation and spending is the name of the game, and Bidenomics is the game. It’s just that both parties seem to play it when they are in power.
Pretty sure this video is sponsored by the Fed. Last day checked, the feds still had $7.5 trillion on the balance sheet. They will need to continue to sell or rolloff this to get inflation under control. I could even see them hiking rates again if inflation continues to spike. Unfortunately, these investors on the video are very long bonds 😅
This will benefit pension funds and other investment types that require more security and guaranteed returns. Especially as more boomers retire and move towards fixed incomes higher yield treasuries will be a better investment. The biggest loser will likely be stocks as investors will be less likely to invest in companies that won't get more then that 5% return every year.
Not quite pal. Higher interest rates means the government has to go further into debt to pay back the interest. The government is broke. They can only collect what the receive in tax revenue. The result is that the government creates more inflation (by expanding the money supply) in order to pay back the interest on the debt they’ve issued. So the higher the interest rate promised by the government, the more inflation you can expect. So even though higher interest rates sound good. If the money supply increases for every dollar of interest the government owes and inflation is 5%, you actually made a 0% real rate.
FED treasury bonds are like "soon to be" junk bonds, in that they give very good coupon rate now. US Debt is really ridiculously over done and any reasonable country would have already gone bankrupt. FED is desperate and they are doing what they can to roll over the huge 8-9 trillion USD debt in this year (2024).
"Normally when the FED starts to cut rates, that's the start of a bull market" ... **Checks Notes** .... August 2007 Guys who remembers the 2008 Bull Market? Anyone? I was in middle school so I didn't pay much attention to the economy at that time, How was it?
It's not the nominal yield, it's the real yield that is important and that is not at all attractive - this is just a marketing gimmick that won't fool intelligent investors.
The headline question of Foreign Treasury buyers and the Fed involving in the Treasuries market is not addressed. The so-called experts narrative about yield curve, rising interest rate and high coupon yield, selective ignore discussion about inflation rate, budget deficit and government fiscal stimulus programs. All requiring more Treasuries issuance to fund and will have a crowding out affect on private capital expenditures. Domestic investors are being pushed into the fixed income markets with talking points of higher coupon yield without disclosure of market sentiment/guesses of when the Fed will raise interest rate and how much influencing yield volatility. Foreign investors looks at real rate of return and not nominal yield rate of on-the-run Treasuries and have chosen to divert the matured capital to other usage because of the low-to-negative real coupon return from rolling the matured capital forward. As seen by the US FDI drop off in 2023 (y/y).
Usa 34 trillion in debt with high inflation and BRICS nations working on versions WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY investors becoming nervous. As 10 year treasury increase, especially this month, so do home and car loans. The Fed does not have to scare people with higher interest rates, treasuries are doing that
No one’s gravestone ever read "He beats the market" or "He took his money to hell/heaven after dying.", Money will soon become worthless, as everyone is after it, remember "Fickle Fate’ is a vicious goddess who brings no permanent good to anyone. On the contrary, she brings ruin to almost every man upon whom she showers unearned gold."
The stock market is not the true economy of the reql thing happening toceveryday americans. It's almost separate what day to day citizens have to endure and live.
In simpler terms:
1. Imagine Treasuries like loans we give the U.S. government, and they pay us back with interest.
Traditionally, big foreign countries (China and Japan) and the Federal Reserve were the biggest lenders.
2. Now, they're lending less, and new lenders are stepping in.
3. These new lenders might be more picky about the interest rate they get, potentially affecting the U.S. economy.
thanks
stock
Hi, the Chinese bought US bonds because of the huge trade imbalance. As they sold much more to the US than the US sold to China, they were/are sitting on a big pile of dollars. So they bought US bonds to "park" that money. In recent years China has used its trade surplus to buy gold instead. On the long run, that is more dangerous to the American economy than picky domestic bond buyers who want a percent more yield.
@@janentomenkafka Yes. I know
Selling US Treasury debt and putting that capital in gold is a bet. China has given up their coupon payments and are hoping gold prices stay higher. Maybe they think some other Debt Market might be a better deal.
When USA seized the Russian holdings of assets ( inc the Tresuries) because of the war in Ukraine….the Chinese figured that the USA will seized their assets in the event of any arguments or conflicts.
When NATO seized the assets of individual Russians with no connection to the war …….the individual Chinese learned that it could have been them.
Yikes ….
BRICS affiliation got a lot more popular after the Russian Reserves were seized. The also grabbed the Afghan reserves, but Russia was a whole nother level.
Oh, these are individual buyers in China of government debt or is this China buying USA debt? It makes sense if individual Chinese don't want USA debt after they saw what happened to Russia.
LOL - The Chinese live in a country where the government seizes whatever it wants from whoever it wants.
@@Fighter4StreetChinese people are getting every penny they can out of China. Russia was a rich country until they decided they had to invade Europe to make their sickly leader look a little stronger. Now they're bankrupt.
Rule #1: Only the Chinese government can seize Chinese people’s assets freely.
US bond are safe only for USA, not for independent minded countries
correct ..Surprise Sanction is here :)
Correct, because it’s a “sanctionable” bond
I would not want to hold USA government debt after seeing how they stole Russia money for basically Russia defending itself from USA military expansion on their borders.
Now USA wants to go after China for China wanting to take back its own land.
Not sure why Japan is dumping though, as they are a colony of USA basically and will not fall under USA sanctions.
If by independent, you mean countries that insist on the right to invade their neighbors or promote global terrorism you're right.
If by independent you mean countries that want to mind their own business and do what they want without attacking other countries you are wrong.
Why do you think your rights should include the right to infringe on my rights?
@@ericmaclaurin8525 I don't know where you are going with this but I bet you think it is OK for USA to invade and infringe on the rights of many countries around the world, but for Russia it is not OK, even though NATO is making a strategic move in Ukraine trying to use it to break up Russia, giving Russia no choice but to invade.
Russia even has said this is a red line for them for over 20 years, no hostile military alliance on their borders.
Economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be . I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Very true , I diversified my $400K portfolio across multiple market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate over $900k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds in few months.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
‘’Jenienne Miniter Fagan’’ is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked up Jenienne, wrote her explaining my financial market goals and scheduled a call
Worst time to buy US treasuries - it's become one of the most 'unsafe' assets for the future, although it's rating is still ostensibly AAA. The reason that most countries, like Japan and China, are dumping US Treasuries, is because they know that the US debt is unsustainable and the US Govt is likely to end up in a position, where it will not be able to pay back. It's a bubble waiting to burst - don't buy when the big guys are avoiding something.
If the us govt defaults, we will see the worst recession you can ever imagine. Its a financial nuclear bomb for which there is almost no fallout shelter that can save you.
50 cents deposited
*Who rated 🤭*
Wrong again! They're selling because they need cash and treasuries are the best asset to sell in ultra large quantities.
@@ericmaclaurin8525their are selling because when they take taiwan, usa will steal their assets 👌
Like El Salvador president said, why do Americans pay taxes when treasury bonds are what pay for the government by the fed just printing more money and bond printed out to with no backing.
Because inflation.
Why have you never learned that you have to pay back money that you borrow?
@@ericmaclaurin8525 if they're just gonna print the money to loan it out to the government, why not just print it directly for them at no charge?
US bonds are neither risk free nor secured for foreign buyers. If US doesn't like your country it may sanctioned and ban you from collecting your holdings. Ask Russians.
Well, Russians were actually wiser in dumping their US Treasury holdings way before the invasion.
I guess the US can’t sanction China then
U.S. doesn't realize they hurt their reputation by doing that to Russia.
@@SomeUserNameBlahBlah We're doing the same thing by restricting chips. We will soon be an island.
China has SSMB EUV lithography factory. 2nm chips will be sold this year. Bye bye Intel, AMD, Nvidia and Qualcomm
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
One of my goals is to employ the service of one this year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
Julie Hope Marble is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
I just checked her out and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne’ for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
thank you for this tip , I must say Margaret, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
With inflation at 3.70%, I'm looking to enter the market now and ride it out as the economy improves. I'm putting together a $350,000 portfolio with Stocks and ETF's. Do you have any recommendations with solid cash flow?
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
You're right, I and a few Neighbors in Bel Air Area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors. Instead of a lump sum purchase, Following this, my portfolio grew 40% in the last quarter.
I'm curious to give this a try. Please who is your advisor and how do I get in touch?
Well, I chose *Jennifer Leigh Hickman* as my advisor after her interview on CNBC In 2020. She is SEC regulated with offices in the US and quite frankly a genius with portfolio diversification.
I just found her webpage and read through her educational background and qualifications, which were all very impressive. So I scheduled a call with her.
The way US froze Russian Assets have consequences 😂😂😂
There was a time when financial experts were horrified that large holdings of treasuries by China, and earlier Japan, were a great threat to the U.S.
It is a security risk for China to hold on to US bond. Freezing asset and sanctions will drive away foreign investment. How much longer can the US use these tools to bully other nations.
The real experts still are and still have a right to be horrified.
The government spends $2 trillion more than it collects in tax revenue by borrowing from the Federal Reserve, Japan, China, and the Social Security Trust Fund.
If the other countries around the world suddenly decide that the government is printing new dollars to pay the interest on the US debt they hold, the can dump the treasuries and or stop buying government debt in the future. This would be a massive problem as the government relies on a 1 trillion dollar trade deficit each year just to import the goods into America to stock the shelves.
So without Japan buying that trillion of debt each year, America is screwed.
We China 🇨🇳 Are #1
you American wihte are #2
I don't think financial experts were ever bothered. It was more financial "experts" that had a very nativist economic viewpoint, and objected to foreign debt on principle.
It's still an issue. If China decides to sell all ~$850B worth of Treasuries and no one is there to buy them, it will send a signal to the world that U.S. Treasuries are worthless because no one wants to purchase them. This will devastate the economy. To prevent this, the Treasury would have to buy back all ~$850B worth of Treasuries which will create more deficit.
Yeah, I recently started to buy treasuries too. Yield is high and plus you can dodge those state income taxes.
lol be carful there’s a reason they put this info out. If it benefits them do you think they’d tell you no! The economy may tank!
@@matthewculver3442 Putting aside the question of whether the statements in this video were honest suggestions, just the fact that you believe that the economy tanking would be a bad thing for treasury buyers right now, shows that you have no clue about investing.
If the economy tanks in the near future, current bond buyers would make a ton of money.
Go read a finance book.
@@EastMilknot if us credit gets downgraded again. They havent reversed their spending (growing debt) , which was the main reason for downgrade.
@@EastMilk go ahead and buy them up then check back in a year let’s see how that works out for you! There’s a reason other countries stopped buying them!
@@EastMilk I don't think economy will tank. Why would it? JP raised interest so much and he might even increase more. He can easily reduce rates if economy is tanking for unexpected reasons.
The reason why yields are higher is because it's BECOME riskier to buy and they're getting more desperate to sell bonds..
What is the risk here?
The US defaulting ?
If so then its global financial meltdown and there is almost nothing you can do to protect yourself.
@@thunderb00m Amercian dollar is going to go down in pirchasing power... and Emergning markets will swing higer... this is where mjority of global population is... this is what was seen from 2000 to 2008
LOL high interest will force people with mortgages, and loans to work more productively by taking 2nd job or more just to survive. Thus, people need more petrol. That's why every time the Democrate wins, ExxonMobil and its friends will hit a new record on their net profit ever in human history.
@@thunderb00m gold and silver are protection
Reversing QE and ending oil imports are why rates are higher.
No need to borrow when you can just print money! It is that simple!
How is the US bond market "the safest market"? We owe 33 or 34 trillion dollars. We can not even afford to pay the interest on that debt without raising the debt ceiling. Every few months, there's a threat of partial government shutdowns. Every time the government raises the debt ceiling, they essentially "kick the can down the road". That "can" (34 trillion dollar debt) is a huge metaphoric "can".
Huge can of whoop ass
US bonds have never defaulted with an open economy that gives consistent returns and dwarfs any other nations' markets. Its a very short list of countries that can match that
@porkypine602 Has the US ever spent 19 trillion dollars in 5-6 years? Let me ask you how many nations will put their faith in our fiat currency? The whole purpose of buying a bond is to earn interest, which is paid out in USD. Just in case you're slow (fiate currency = USD), we print that stuff. Nothing backing that USD but faith.
Yeah, this is the problem, people who don't understand how national debts work freaking out about the national debt. The rich will keep getting richer off of their ignorance.
@@MrFfrenchh the key word here is 'safest' what other market is as capital friendly as the US? the dollar is backed by the military , industry and oil. Yes it is a fiat currency and so is everything besides gold and there is a reason why no country is gold backed anymore. As long as oil is traded in US dollars, world's oceans are patrolled by the US military, the USD will be the safest market.
What other alternative is there? No other country can afford to keep a deficit high enough to be the dominant global currency. People have been predicting the fall of the USD for 50 years since the USD became a fiat currency and decifits exploded and no currency has come close to dethroning it.
Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly
I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
Pls can you recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
美国股市价格太高了，建议在中国开个账户来买A股。那样你就会和中国股民一样痛苦。
scam
I read that Nvidia provides tech for crypto mining services/blockchain transactions. Could the current crypto pump be attributed to Nvidia’s great earnings and should I hold some crypto as well, cos tbh I’m having FOMO with the current crypto price at 64k.
Microstrategy CEO bought $155million worth of bitcoin, so yes BUY!
It’s going to be a wild year for these sectors, so you should def. invest in crypto. 60% of my portfolio is spread across tech stocks, crypto and Crypto/Gold ETFs.
well the crypto market is expected to do way better than any other equity sectors this 2024 especially with the SEC crypto ETF approval but it’s a volatile market nevertheless and if you’re new to it, it’s best to reach out to an experienced adviser for proper guidance.
Yes, my asset manager advised I spread further into mutual funds and crypto Etf and boy am I glad I did. The whole idea is: nt get too greedy and also to exit at the right time, so generally I do find having an adviser very helpful, because what Avg. Joe really has time to watch and comprehensively analyse the mrket./
could you recommend some good advisers? don’t get me wrong, I already have an asset manager, but he seems not to know much about crypto.,
Lmao so other countries are not buying it because it's becoming risky and you want us to buy it?
What a meaningless statement
This is such a youtube comment.
Exactly! Bonds will be worthless when the US economy collapses
They want us to continue financing the US weapons industry.
Nice content, the background music is a bit over the top though
This is what happens when you don’t understand how important that everyone else is to your economy and braking and not creating trade agreements.
Former US grand strategist Zbignew Brzezinski said: "It is IMPERATIVE that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America".
Because the US has just 4% of the world's population, and it's isolated from the Eurasia continent which has 70% of the world's population, or 87% with Africa included. Defensively, it's an advantage to the US, but economically, it's a handicap. That's why economically, Eurasia is a competitor to the US and the Euro is a threat to the dollar.
How does the US with an isolated and just 4% of world's population maintain its position as the world's biggest economy?
The dollar must stay as the world's reserve currency. This allows the size of the US economy to be highly scaled up, instead of being sized according to the fundamentals.
To be the world's reserve currency, the dollar must be circulated in the world. The US created a huge consumption-based economy and shifted manufacturing outside, so that dollars flow out of the US to product suppliers like China or Japan. To make products, China and Japan need energy. The US created the Petrol-dollar scheme, so that dollar is circulated to Saudi. With the US stock and financial market much more lucrative than other countries, the dollars from Saudi are attracted back to the US. Money printed in the US to exchange for goods from outside eventually ends up with the Wall Streets, where the rich gets richer. And that completes the cycle of circulation of the dollars.
The American Dream attracted top talents around the world to strengthen the US' science and technology sectors, and a technological gap is maintained between the US and other major economy like China, so that the US benefits from highly lucrative high-tech product/patent exports, while low profit manufacturing sector is outsourced to China and Vietnam. This is why world leader in 5G, Huawei, are banned in 2019.
If China or Japan bring back all the dollars and exchange to their local currencies, it inflates the local currencies, making their exports expensive. So, China and Japan use some of the dollars to buy US debts (treasury bonds). That's why the US, a rich country, is in-debt to China which has just 1/5th of the US' GDP per capita.
And by holding US treasury bills, China and Japan have to support the US dollar, for if the US dollar collapses, their hard earn money would become worthless. After Obama's "Pivot to Asia" in 2011, which aimed to contain China, China introduced the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) in 2013 and diverted some of the dollars into it to reduce the risk of putting all eggs in one basket, and hoping that after these countries are developed, China would have a wider trade market.
With a huge population, if Asia and Africa develop rapidly, the share of the US' economy shrinks, then the Euro could replace it as the world's reserve currency. When that happens, the US would no longer be able to print money out of nothing without a hyper inflation like Venezuela. Then the size of the US economy has to fall back to the fundamentals, which today is quite a lot smaller than the inflated economy. That's why no country in Eurasia is allowed to catch up with the US' economy. When Japan was catching up fast on the US in the 1980s, they were knocked down to a three decade stagnancy by appreciating the Japanese Yen. And in the last 30 years, the US created conflicts, wars and color revolutions in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa to destabilise the Eurasia-Africa supercontinent.
When the US prints a lot of money, other countries' foreign reserves in dollars shrink in value. Furthermore, to prevent exports to the US becoming expensive, these countries have to print money too, which devalues the savings of the people, and causing inflations in these countries. It's estimated that our savings devalue by 6-9% per year after the abolishment of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system, after which the US prints money based on just the creditability of the dollar.
North America is relatively easy to defend, yet the US has a military budget more than the total of the next 9 countries in the top 10, to protect the dollar with its 800 military bases worldwide.
For the record, the US had no mercy on threats to the dollar:
In 2000 Saddam Hussein said he would start selling oil in Euros not Dollars. > Saddam was hanged by the US.
In 2009 Gaddafi made Libya export oil in Gold Dinars, not in dollar or Euro. > Gaddafi was killed by US-backed NTC.
Syria had an independent Central Bank NOT under Federal Reserve controlled Bank of International Settlements. >> Obama attempted to overthrow Bashar al-Assad.
Iran has been trading oil in currencies other than US dollars since 2011. > Iran was being sanctioned by the US.
After being sanctioned in 2014, Putin started to trade in non-dollar. In 2019, Putin completely ditched dollars in oil trades, sold almost all the US treasury bonds, is now the forerunner in de-dollarization. > The US tried to topple Putin by supporting Alexei Navalny.
And now the Ukraine war to weaken Russia China
(1) introduced the BRI in 2013 which helps many countries to develop and speed up the integration of Eurasia,
(2) used non-dollar in oil trades with Iran and Russia,
(3) introduced the CIPS, an alternative to the West's SWIFT system which has been weaponized by America,
(4) China's economy and high technology are catching up fast. >> China has become the US' #1 target.
If a country supports the dollar, it's being looted; if a country doesn't support the dollar, the government is changed by the US. This is financial slavery.
The Fed has printed 80% of all US dollars in existence since Jan 2020. There was $4.02 trillion dollars in circulation at the beginning of 2020. The number reached $20.08 trillion by Oct 2021. This amounted to an astronomical 34 trillions debt. Coupled with a global rising urge to diversify into non-dollar reserves caused by the US' sanctions to 39 countries, the dollar is in a creditability crisis. This is the major development which shapes geopolitics in the world today.
The US cannot have direct wars with Russia and China because they are nuclear armed. Proxy wars put the battlefields outside of the US, and the US would looked like an outsider. Remember in the 1980s, the US supported the Afghan Mujaheddin in a proxy war against the USSR. Russia and China have clearly defined their redlines. Us would use its collaborators Zelensky and Tsai to push across the redlines to trigger the wars, and it would sell weapons to its allies in NATO and AUKUS, and get them to support the wars.
After the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, US President Bill Clinton had two choices:
to integrate Russia into Europe and abolish NATO, OR,
to slowly alienate Russia to keep Russia and Europe divided.
Clinton chose the latter, because if there's no more Russia "threat", there would be no more NATO to control Europe. As the first NATO Secretarv General. Lionel Ismav described the military role of NATO: "To keep America IN, to keep Russia OUT, to keep Germany (Europe) DOWN".
NATO also allows the US to place missiles in Europe, so if a war break out in Europe, missiles would be flying between Moscow the East and Lisbon in the West, while the US remains safe across the Atlantic. And politically, the EU is an American creation, as much as a European one. It's much easier for Washington to control ruling elites at Brussels than having to control all politicians in Europe. The EU is used an ally or a sacrificial depending on the geopolitical needs of Washington.
The proxy war in Ukraine:
1.Divided Europe from Russia and divided Eurasia.
2. Killed Nord Stream Il gas pipeline and German firm Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg has signed up for gas from America Venture Global LNG for 20 years. The US gained control over energy supply to Europe.
3. Created continuity for the Military Industrial Complex after pulling out of Afghanistan.
4. Most importantly, the war strengthened the dollar. Dollar against Euro is now the highest since NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia in Mar 1999 (happened two months after the official launch of Euro as the currency of the EU, which threatened the dollar). A strong dollar together with the Fed's interest rise in 2022 cause capitals from all over the world to flow into the US' economy, while collapsing other economies, like Sri Lanka. Else where, two months after ignoring a warning from Washington against his visit to Moscow, highly popular Imran Khan was ousted from the PM post of Pakistan on 9 Apr 2022. A month after ignoring Biden's demand to increase oil production, secretary-general of OPEC, Mohammad Barkindo died unexpectedly on July 6 2022. The US isn't relinquishing its privilege to loot.
Remember after WW II, Europe and Asia were devastated, but the US emerged as the world leader and the dollar became the world's reserve currency.
And there you have the explanation almost in a nutshell! Let me ask you something friend Mahesh. Because WW1 and WW2 were most assuredly produced by Europe (and Japan) would you have preferred a different outcome? Would you have preferred the "world's" economic and military superpower spoke German, Russian or Japanese perhaps?? USA didn't start nor want to become embroiled in either war thus, since it emerged as the strongest in every way, it took a good world economic idea and put it into practice, creating the most wealth for the most people (not ALL people by any means) ever in its history by implementing a "rules based" global order which, of course, some entities had to greedily game by intellectual property theft!
We're by no means perfect but because of people whom hold a NOT completely TRUE understanding of it all you are all going to miss the "Pax Americana" when its gone, mark me well but you don't realize how good you've had it!
Too much debt to GDP and we have been running deficits for decades, in addition due to increase in
interest rate, we have to print more money to pay earnings and to service our debt!
Pretty straight forward. Oh, let’s not forget the unfounded liability…, SS for the seniors 😅😰
Game over!
SS is funded by the workers every day they work. Ignorant drama queens should learn before they speak.
Very polite and casual way to announce the disasters to come!! Keep printing'em. The green.
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $560K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategie;s ... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
A downtrend offers an equally high-yielding avenue if you have the necessary skills and knowledge. This is why I've been using an investment advisor to scale up during this difficult time, and it's the only way I've been able to raise up to $150K in the last six months. It all comes down to technique. The downtrend gives you room to focus on the market and grow-substantially whether in the long or short run.
Please can you leave the information of your investment advisor here? I'm in dire need of one.
One of the fiduciaries I deal with is Jennifer Lea Jenson. Just check the name. There would be a letter with the necessary information to set up an appointment.
Thank you! I checked out Jennifer Lea Jenson's credentials on her website and it seems quite good! Hopefully, she's taking in fresh applicants because I sent her an email.
I just withdrew my profits an hour ago.
Please remember to hire and pay the treasury accounts to keep up with every allotment account and to pay for the insurance in the event that there is theft are loss of property
I was trying to think of something to include in the inclement weather or food boxes for light and heat just in case the electricity is knocked out but I haven't thought of what the place in them other than candles
Please don't listen to these people. Bonds are declining in value. Real interest rates a still negative. We are in the everything bubble. Commercial real estate defaults and the subsequent bank defaults will probably pop these bubbles. Only real assets, like precious metals, farm land, energy producers will weather the storm. Berkshire Hathaway is holding over 150B in cash. If bonds were such a good value, Warren would be buying.
Yep, and that way when they default (because they ultimately will) they will say you're a US citizen, we are wiping this debt.
There is still over 100 trillion worth of unfunded liabilities on top of our current national debt. The interest on all this alone is more than the country generates on all forms of taxation combined.
So tell me they will not default ...
"I have invested in bonds. James Bonds."
This is marketing to sell bonds to retail investors. In reality, such a move just shows that the lack of foreign demand for treasuries is starting to worry decision makers in DC and in the big banks.
And if the septic tanks are separate I need to make sure that stuff is tanks and plumbing are ordered for all of the cabins
The rules for the satellite competition spending budget there was a $10 entry fee and between 1990 and 1991 we were only allowed to spend $500 to build our satellites my ISS satellite did come in under budget the the NOAA satellite May cost a little more because the Noah satellite was designed and built with lava magma proof materials and can also withstand the cold to Sub-Zero temperatures
Judging from the comments I see total lack of understanding why risk free sovereign debt is purchased. It should be noted that all other debt is priced higher and probably more suitable for Consumers and the general public. The idea that there is a large domestic market for 10 year Treasury notes is probably not true although can be tried. China is an example of a very large economy that restricts sovereign bond holders almost exclusively to domestic buyers but has found that without international participation you aren't leveraging external capital investment
When the FED steps, it creates moneys to purchase bonds the government created. It is a fiat currency with private bank setting the rate backed by a government with the power to lay and collect taxes.
They didn't mention about interest rate risk or duration risk. When the US Federal Reserve hiked the interest rates, the value of your treasury holdings fell. The Feds increased the rates to combat inflation, the increase rates is hoped to slowdown the economy and reduced dollars circulation leading to stronger dollar, etc etc. But increased rates also have my side effects, one of which lowering the value of their long term bonds. For foreign banks, buying these US treasuries mean they will have to exchanged their currency to dollars. Now imagine the rates of exchange before and after the hike of interest rates. They are borrowing dollars to buy bonds that made lower yield than their borrowing rates. Literally losing money. This is the case with one of Japanese big bank Norinchuukin. China also dumping billions of US treasuries despite losing money. The US monetary policies is far from stable and any decision the feds made and will make will affect their treasuries.
The yield is creeping up while the demand is reducing. The reason is the buyers see the US bond market prices worth to trend downward
No. The reason is that the US used to import oil and that is no longer the case. Imported oil sent dollars overseas that were used to buy treasuries.
No mention of federal budget deficit which is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days
We still have high inflation way more than 4% probably 6-7%. It is compounded yearly. Inflation is slowing but still high and prices will not return to 2019 prices. So much free money, worse type of inflation, past few years. 2019 to now new car prices up 41%, used cars 32% with wages only 15% increase since 2019. Wages never keep up to cost of living mainly from inflation. You must have a business, stocks/bonds, and rental properties to stay ahead of inflation. Home prices have more than doubled in certain areas
Yeah but what good is house price rising? You can only realise the gain if you sell or loan against it. Selling is pointless as your sale sets the new benchmark high for every other house, And loaning against it means you need to earn cashflow and pay the higher rates. It’s just a scam. But the markets are the same, Ultimately, they all fall and you lose most of your worth.
Car prices are crashing and inflation last year doesn't mean we have inflation now just because you decide to be dishonest and use a 2019 comparison.
At least try.
Was this aired before at an earlier date?
many of the clips seem to be several months or a year or two old. There was one from Nov 2023. This does not seem to be 2024 material.
That QE chart is factually wrong. It's missing the QE that occurred in March 2022 due to the lending facility they created for regional banks.
"With financial and economic conditions improving, the Fed started the process of balance sheet normalization in March 2022, whereby it intends to significantly reduce the amount of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that it holds in its System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio."
I disagree. With the government spending more than it did on the entire Great Financial Crisis every 6 months, I would say economic conditions are not improving.
Take the GDP for example.
Let’s say the government is broke and spends 100 trillion more than it has. It inflates the heck out of the dollar. Well, if you’re only paying attention to GDP to measure the strength of the economy, you’d be wrong to bet your apples when you see that GDP rose by a staggering 10,000% this year.
It's not wrong. From the Fed's own website:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to start tapering net asset purchases in November 2021, and net purchases ceased in early March 2022.
@@tc1231c Ok so when it lent out hundreds of Billions in March 2022 that wasn't Treasuries? Lol
@@jnp0921 You can check the Fed's balance sheet and you'll see a big increase then.
I don't like all this national debt. They don't have to pay it off, but stop giving tax cuts to rich people.
Fed does not need to hike rates since 10 year treasuries have increased increasing mortgage rates
Fed will not cut rates with still low unemployment. Needs to cool more/job losses. Plus cutting rates has inflationary pressures with already 34 trillion in debt and open borders. Ouch
@@Starship007they will cut rates because the current debt isn't manageable at current rates.
great video =)
this is clearly just an ad buy so we can buy more treasuries, so the fed doesn't have to. Treasuries are not risk-free return, more like return free risk. Treasuries are by far the dumbest bond you can buy. Essentially with treasuries, as a tax payer, you are buying your own taxes back and then they tax you again for your gains from buying your taxes back. You will make more money buying high quality corp bonds or simply just putting your cash in a MM fund. Also, companies like AAPL and MSFT are technically more solvent than the US government. If the treasury keeps issuing these t bonds and there are no buyers, the fed will be forced to print more money and buy them. This will cause another wave of inflation similar to the 70s
I would ask that the technologically advanced cabins also be built so that they can become handicap accessible and elderly accessible for the injured sick and disabled and for growing old
I see inflation picking up again. If it does, then the Fed can either raise rates or hope it's transient. Again.
Frankly, I think they (and Yellen) have the same courage and competence against inflation that Olaf Scholz demonstrates in the face of Putin's butchery - none.
"Who wanted to use dollar in future?" this comment will aged like wine in 10 years 🤣
I’m starting to look at this for the first time. I’m used to have savings, cd’s, stock, but never treasuries.
TBills are a good deal now, but I'm personally selling all my longer dated treasuries. Foreign buyers are down from 66% of issuance to roughly 33% now. With current and projected deficit levels, its hard to make a case for the individual investor to go too far out on the curve.
@@TheNewCarryTrade Yeah, 7-day rate is still over 5%.
Also the people buying the USA treasury bonds ARE REINVESTING THEIR RETIREMENT INTERESTS AND DIVIDENDS BACK INTO MORE TREASURES EACH MONTH AND THEIR WEALTH IS GROWING! But only if they have the needed assets outside of their retirement accounts and Penision plans.
iirc, US bonds are mostly bought by foreign country, China for example, to keep the US's interest rate low, low interest rate means consumer has the ability to buy big purchase such as house or car, low interest rate also means consumer has more money to spend, since the US the follow consumerism, money will keep moving in the market. This is a good thing for country like China since they want a market that keep consuming the goods they export. It's a win-win situation for both countries
China and Japan have both stopped buying US debt. In fact, China has been selling much of it.
And btw, interest rates have risen almost 3 fold, since 2021, and holding around 5%. Wall street was thinking the Fed would reduce rates now, but it hasn't happened yet.
Debt papers should change to a Preferred Shares model which is perpetual. Just put term premiums for buyers who hold the preferred treasuries for 10 or 20 years. This way, when a foreign holder unloads, they would be the one looking for a buyer - unlike the current model which the foreign buyer simply waits till maturity and gets paid the principal, then the FED needs to look for new buyer of the debt that needs to be rolled over.
Lol.. us treasuries are a asset 😅. No kiddo.theyre a liability. And they're completely unsafe. Because government can devalue the currency while you're locked into a rate. (See svb) I laughed. Japan prints money buys u.s. bonds. U.s. prints money buys Japanese bonds.. it's only a matter of time... Ticking time bomb
The demand for Treasuries has been steadily declining due to the growing weakness in the US economy. China and Japan are steadily dumping Treasuries at a slow rate to keep from undercutting the prices they can get. That's why the rate of return is rising.
The dollar is steadily losing value and being pressured by BRICS, at some point the petrodollar will no longer be accepted for oil and the US will be forced to turn to the BRICS currencies, then the US Dollar will lose its place as the world's' reserve currency.
Or you can go with the smoke this video is blowing.
Why the bond market disruption?
1. Trade balances. The US no longer importing oil means fewer dollars flowing overseas that used to return to buy treasuries.
2. Treasuries are emergency reserves for the world. Covid was an emergency that is still echoing around the world. They have been selling treasuries because they are the only asset that can be sold in any quantity without destroying the value of your remaining investment.
3. Trump literally multiplied US debt just to give corporations and the rich a big tax cut. Biden also had to add a bunch of debt to rebuild the economy post covid.
4. We've allowed massive wealth accumulation in the hands of people who do not support freedom. They have chosen to invest in seizing power and assets from voters instead of maintaining the infrastructure and consumer base that allowed many to build their wealth.
5. Reversing QE is how the above factors were allowed to poison the entire market in a way that will eventually bankrupt the country. No one can claim QE is a viable long term strategy, but anyone with basic money management skills knows that solving a budget issue doesn't start with increasing your expenses or quitting your job. QE should have been continued until a comprehensive transition plan could be implemented. That should have been a program that borrowed a trillion or so at those 1% interest rates and investing it into the economy in a way paid all of the money back with a return of more than one percent while at the same time growing the economy (or various other long term profitable things) so that we not only pay off the borrowed money but increase tax receipts to pay off other debt. Synergy is a long forgotten concept but it basically means do things that pay for themselves and then to use the extra capacity you've already paid for to do other things. Investing trillions you borrow at 1% for a 2% return is very profitable. When those trillions are invested in things that also grow the economy and grow tax receipts you can multiply your profit almost as many times as you want.
#3 is a big one. One that your average MAGA weenie doesn't quite grasp. We know Powell did, in fact, try to raise interest rates back in 2018 but Trump was actively pressuring the Feds the whole time til he finally backed off. What we're seeing now is those raise risen with a vengeance as a result of it. I believe another plus is many a saver is buying short term bonds which is always a good thing for the debt.
Powell's in no rush whatsoever to lower said rates. They're right where they should be, maybe another 25bps or so. Market and banks seem to have a hard comprehending that as well. His dovish tone's really playing with their emotions it would seem.
A bond is a promise by the borrower to pay back the capital with interest. Its only collateral is a paper with nothing more than a promise to repay with interest at whatever interest on the coupon. The question is why would anyone choose to buy a promise to pay versus the alternative of buying shares in a listed company with a proven business model which has a viable asset base that generates income and profit that pays a regular dividend. Bottom line is what an investor gets in return for his investment with an assured and tangible business model whose financials are subject to audit and governed by commercial law with financial statements to show tangible business practices within the self-checking rules of competition that are investors' safety nets. A bond is basically a promise by the borrower to pay back with interest but it has no assured defined business plan. It is just a blank check!
I learned the risk free rate in school but always wondered how it is risk free? Simply cuz it’s guaranteed by USA? That’s not good enough to me. I accepted it so I could pass my module. It’s just math to get answers but I don’t really buy it though.
Buying fixed-interest rate securities hurts the American Economy, so long as our economy is growing slower than that fixed interest or inflation! It's free money for other foreigners, and I it worsens inflation. Am I wrong?
Buying government securities (treasury bills, notes, and bonds) hurts the private sector (the American Market) because the government needs to go further into debt in order to pay back the interest they owe on each government debt instrument that the public holds.
A higher interest rate locks in a higher deficit spending rate in Washington D.C. which results in the currency losing purchasing power.
The government can only spend what it collects in tax revenue. But it’s expenses are much more than what it collects, so they need to borrow more money by raising the debt ceiling and auctioning off more debt (treasuries) to the public.
Inflation is the expansion of the money supply and credit. The government and federal reserve are responsible for expanding the money supply.
The government prints up more treasuries out of nowhere..
Investors from all around the world including the Federal Reserve, Japan, China, other foreign governments and central banks, banks, pension funds, social security trust funds, and citizens in private sector buy up the government debt and the government promises a fixed interest rate.
Since the government spends $2 trillion more than it takes in through tax revenue each year, it needs to borrow the $2 trillion at whatever interest rate the federal reserve has set.
It needs to go further into debt just to pay interest to the debt holders (creditors). This process is both inflationary and a Ponzi scheme.
Things will continue to get more expensive as government deficit spending leads to expansion of the money supply (inflation) which drives prices up since there are more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services on the shelves. Demand exceeds supply. The supply of money proofed into existence, but the goods didn’t magically poof onto the shelves.
The federal reserve is also not helping the situation. They have a goal to raise the unemployment rate because they state that inflation steps from higher wages.
Inflation mainly comes from the federal reserve and US banks buying government treasuries.
The problem isn’t higher wages. The solution isn’t cutting jobs.
In order to offset all of the new money entering the economy, what need in America is more production. More goods producing jobs in the economy to help stock the goods on the shelves that all this new money is competing for. The government needs to stop borrowing so much to import all of the goods from other countries, and instead invest in manufacturing and productive jobs that can help with the supply on the shelves issue.
@@BryanKatzman-h4n Great comment. Thank you! So are you suggesting that it would be better to keep the savings in my Bank HYSA or the stock market as it could free up money in the govts budget toward other more useful things?
Respect bro. True things said.@user-fn1fu6yo2z
Not really, Fed can create more $ out of nowhere anytime
@@BryanKatzman-h4nWhat a sad display of long winded ignorance.
The US: Start economic War with China
Also the US: Question why China no longer finances the US Debt 😂
The level of delusion 😂
China is too broke to invest anywhere. They're selling the treasuries they have to buy food.
But you keep pounding your chest!
They make sense for Americans to buy because they're about as safe as the US dollar, and if that goes you're screwed anyway. Foreigners can look at geopolitical trends and make other bets.
Your best hedges now are storable food, water purification, off grid electric, ammo, firearms, seeds, farmable land and community.
Those are hedges for high interest rates or being a terrorist who hates their own government.
@@ericmaclaurin8525 Saucy....
*nice commercial 👍*
If the bond yields are high, interest rates get too high, and all investment and business activities go down.
If the bond yields are lowered, no foreign countries will buy them and money supply within USA shoots up, increasing inflation in USA. And the poor and Middle class people will get screwed.
New coats shoes hats and gloves should also be included in the foster care admission boxes and in the foster care release relief boxes
Nobody talk about the falling credibility of US
Particularly sanctions😂
Why ate you afraid to talk about the sanctions bankrupting Russia? Everyone I know thinks they're funny, profitable and should be increased until Putin stops funding and committing terrorism.
Right ✅️
if they are very very safe why does the world not want to buy them while they are paying better yields then they were 4-14 years. Because they aren't worth the paper they're printed on
What's the alternative? Which investment is more secure?
gold
I can buy Chinese manufactured goods for USD so not really.
@@kaustubhraizada the only asset in todays world that doesn’t have a debt bubble hovering over it
@@kaustubhraizada except you can't directly buy anything with gold.
All these political bashing, isn’t this all about investment? If treasury is not safe, do you think put large amount money in Bitcoin or gold is better? Or any of you intend to put money in China, Japan, Russia bond? I put money in mutual fund holding some Ukraine bond, we all know how it turn out, I really like to know your suggestion for safer alternative.
There must be a reason why the govt isn't demanding banks pay a fair amount of interest on savings accounts.
Because that would lead to poor outcomes.
@@jakeroper1096 how so
Let’s say you have 1 million dollars in your savings account. The bank can take 100% of your savings account and purchase treasuries or loan the money out for capital investments. We have record low savings in America, which is forcing interest rates to rise on credit. Due to low savings in America, the bank charges a high amount of interest because there is a low supply of money in people’s savings accounts.
The banks lost a ton of money last year when the fed raised interest rates several times. It rendered their portfolio of treasury bonds useless as the bonds that they purchased before the interest rate hikes only yielded 2 or 3%. Inflation was 9%. That meant a negative real return of 6 or 7%. This is what caused a massive bank bailout (BTFP) last year.
The banks are unhealthy because they invested a large sum of their portfolio in bonds and the bonds went under water.
This is likely why the government isn’t telling the banks what the should do for depositors.
A lot of banks are offering good interest rates, but you have to shop around. They don't bother updating the rates for existing customers.
That would obviously collapse everything
Bonds don't follow the fed. The fed follows the 2YY (ZT).
of course the amount of the bond sales is the amount of money the fed can print
Unless I’m an idiot, yes they do. I’m willing to be enlightened, but the FED’s sentiment indirectly drives yields from what I understand. However, I trade currencies, not bonds.
Smart investors know treasuries start to bear credit risk, which was not the case in the past.
Our spending is out of control. Even if there is not a default, at the current rate, inflation will end up eating treasury returns. We are either heading for a period of slow growth, inflation, recession, higher taxation, or lower spending. There most likely will be a combination of these factors. My hope is that voters will elect politicians who won’t dig a deeper hole with more spending to try to compensate, but it’s just a hope. Stagnation and spending is the name of the game, and Bidenomics is the game. It’s just that both parties seem to play it when they are in power.
@@Triquetra15 thanks for expanding on it.
Pretty sure this video is sponsored by the Fed. Last day checked, the feds still had $7.5 trillion on the balance sheet. They will need to continue to sell or rolloff this to get inflation under control. I could even see them hiking rates again if inflation continues to spike. Unfortunately, these investors on the video are very long bonds 😅
Why buy bonds when NVDA is going up everyday?
You must be very regarded and you lack of perspective in financial markets shows how little you actually know
@@jitterrypokery1526 you really are that dumb to not recognize sarcasm?
Ah, a Gamestock devotee, I see.
@@jitterrypokery1526 you can’t recognize sarcasm?🤦🏻♂️
@@timogul what’s that?😂
I just went to the McDonald's closest to i-24 exit 1 I'm back at the house but my hair is falling out into my Big Mac meal and my fries
This will benefit pension funds and other investment types that require more security and guaranteed returns. Especially as more boomers retire and move towards fixed incomes higher yield treasuries will be a better investment. The biggest loser will likely be stocks as investors will be less likely to invest in companies that won't get more then that 5% return every year.
Inflation. You won't get 5% in treasuries.
@@daft9inety6ixer57 current 12 month is 5%
Not quite pal. Higher interest rates means the government has to go further into debt to pay back the interest. The government is broke. They can only collect what the receive in tax revenue. The result is that the government creates more inflation (by expanding the money supply) in order to pay back the interest on the debt they’ve issued. So the higher the interest rate promised by the government, the more inflation you can expect.
So even though higher interest rates sound good. If the money supply increases for every dollar of interest the government owes and inflation is 5%, you actually made a 0% real rate.
That's definitely my chemotherapy medicine my skin is sore the same way as if I would have been to chemotherapy
this is an advetisement for American bonds by FED... stay away from that crap
The back of my head is pounding now
The US bond market is actually US$ 33 Trillion Dollars. Why would they deliberately lie about something that is reported daily.
I only follow the Buffet indicator. Out of market for now.
FED treasury bonds are like "soon to be" junk bonds, in that they give very good coupon rate now. US Debt is really ridiculously over done and any reasonable country would have already gone bankrupt.
FED is desperate and they are doing what they can to roll over the huge 8-9 trillion USD debt in this year (2024).
2 year bond and below have better yield. Who will buy long term?
Where does 26 TRILLION even come from?🤣
Profit from all business in that country?
"Normally when the FED starts to cut rates, that's the start of a bull market" ... **Checks Notes** .... August 2007
Guys who remembers the 2008 Bull Market? Anyone? I was in middle school so I didn't pay much attention to the economy at that time, How was it?
what else will they do when their money locked hidden in there and CNBC splurging with that
It's not the nominal yield, it's the real yield that is important and that is not at all attractive - this is just a marketing gimmick that won't fool intelligent investors.
This whole comments section is nothing but bots LMAO
US treasury bonds is a good place to invest but, if the legal tender is weaponized none will be interested to even buy a mere pin.
So overall the treasury auctions have been a disaster but for no reasons given, its all magically turning around in 2024 according to these experts.
The headline question of Foreign Treasury buyers and the Fed involving in the Treasuries market is not addressed. The so-called experts narrative about yield curve, rising interest rate and high coupon yield, selective ignore discussion about inflation rate, budget deficit and government fiscal stimulus programs. All requiring more Treasuries issuance to fund and will have a crowding out affect on private capital expenditures.
Domestic investors are being pushed into the fixed income markets with talking points of higher coupon yield without disclosure of market sentiment/guesses of when the Fed will raise interest rate and how much influencing yield volatility.
Foreign investors looks at real rate of return and not nominal yield rate of on-the-run Treasuries and have chosen to divert the matured capital to other usage because of the low-to-negative real coupon return from rolling the matured capital forward. As seen by the US FDI drop off in 2023 (y/y).
Thank god for open market operations before the market opens 🤣😂😭😂😭
I'm sitting here trying to figure out how to run my funding over for more than 100 years
Usa 34 trillion in debt with high inflation and BRICS nations working on versions WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY investors becoming nervous. As 10 year treasury increase, especially this month, so do home and car loans. The Fed does not have to scare people with higher interest rates, treasuries are doing that
Ah yes. Invest in the bric countries where China and Russia seize all of your assets at will with no recourse.
Good call!
Back of my head is pounding and now I need my right knee hurts I'm going to lay down and try to go to sleep cuz my hair is still falling out too
Bond and treasury has limited impact in US economy, especially bonds...That is the essence of bonds US bonds, seriousness and limitation...
No one’s gravestone ever read "He beats the market" or "He took his money to hell/heaven after dying.", Money will soon become worthless, as everyone is after it, remember "Fickle Fate’ is a vicious goddess who brings no permanent good to anyone. On the contrary, she brings ruin to almost every man upon whom she showers unearned gold."
The stock market is not the true economy of the reql thing happening toceveryday americans. It's almost separate what day to day citizens have to endure and live.
Buy gold, actual physical gold !! Time for US bonds is long gone.
And when the impossible happens - inflation flairs again - then what?
Is it true that $8.9 T- Bill mature in 2024 ?
How are US going to fund such massive maturity, it's half of GDP.
Paid and bought for by the Fed's printed paper money.......thank you for watching 😂😅😂😅😅😅😂