Thinking of *PEN BLACKSTAR* in the Future?.. Watch This 1st!.. [BDO, Black Desert Online Video]
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ย. 2024
- Thinking of PEN BLACKSTAR in the Future?.. Watch This 1st!.. [BDO, Black Desert Online Video]
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#BDO #BlackDesert #BlackDesertOnline
200fs for a 4.20% chance? Sounds like my kind of stack 😎
Extra bonus for the 420? Hmm..
what the fuck i got it first try on this stack cuz i found this comment and thought itd be funny
@@Tarrabah I did over four attempts on this stack but no luck. I did pop a 192 stack on PEN Nouver though so there's that..
between questing to 30k and failstacking, which method do you think is easier to do to get a 300fs?
They are both very difficult in different ways. In terms of time, probably regular enhancing... but 30k quests grind is just mindnumbing questing and not much agony like getting a 300fs can be enhancing haha.
I am the part of the 95.8% that always fail. That's why I sail my ship, fish and ride my horses instead of enhancing boss gear.
This only applies if you give up after one attempt.
@@bayrock1337 I've attempted several times and staying at TET Blackstar right now. I may do the guaranteed boss gear upgrade quests to see if it is worth the time. I have had better luck getting Dream horses.
you are saving all my enchantments, thanks for all these salt classes, a big hug from brazil, you are insane !
I am pretty sure I wasted my j hammers on pen boss gear smh
You are being misleading in your videos. There is no average when it comes to this kind of scenario. Because we are experiencing Replacement scenario not Elimination scenario.
Quoting from another fellow netizen on the same topic:
From the description it seems you are specifying a consistent 5% probability throughout all the attempts (trials). This consistency would occur if you had the same population size in each attempt. This condition is commonly termed non-elimination or replacement. An example of this scenario would be trying to pick one specific playing card from a shuffled (randomized) pile (since you specify 5%, then there would be 20 cards). After each attempt, you replace the card and shuffle the pile.
The other scenario is elimination or non-replacement. After each attempt, you eliminate the card you chose, so that the size of the population is decreased by one every trial. In our example, the first attempt you pick 1 card out of a pile of 20, the second attempt you pick 1 card from 19-card pile, and so on. Shuffling between attempts is optional.
So your question remains: how many attempts would it take to be successful?
Elimination scenario
The following table shows the results of this scenario, where:
Att = attempt, Pop = population, Att P = attempt probability, and Cum P = cumulative probability.
Translating, your question asks when the cumulative probability is guaranteed to be 1.0 (100%). This is attempt 20, when there is only a single card to chose from, so you would have to be extremely unlucky not to guess correctly. ;) Note that the probabilities for the individual trials approach 1 exponentially (an upward curve), but the cumulative probabilities increment very nicely by .05 (a straight line).
Replacement scenario
In contrast, in the replacement scenario, the population stays constant at 20, so the probability for each attempt is a constant .50. The cumulative probability continually approaches (asymptotically) but never reaches 1 (100%). Even after 200 attempts, it is not certain. (I approximated to only 4 places, so accuracy is being lost at this point.) So the answer here is, in theory, never.
Here's the comment I was looking for.
To expand upon this, if you want to find the odds of getting a singular desired result after a given number of attempts, you must find out the odds of *not* getting the desired result after that same number of attempts.
To do this, simply utilize the following formula: {(1-X)^Y} where X is the chance of receiving the desired result and Y is the number of trials.
For example: I want to know the odds of getting at least one heads if I flip a coin twice. The chances of landing on heads is 50% (theoretically). So the solution goes as follows.
(1-0.5)^2
0.5^2
0.5*0.5
0.25
This tells me that there is a 25% chance of there being no heads result in 2 coin flips. Which, inversely tells me that there is a 75% chance of there being one or more heads results in 2 coin flips.
So, for the example given in the video of a 4.8% chance to hit PEN blackstar, he claims that on average (meaning half of an infinite player base will succeed by this point) it will take 20.83 attempts to hit PEN blackstar with that 4.8% chance. However, if we check the odds of NOT getting the PEN blackstar after 20 attempts we can see that there's actually "only" a 37.4% chance of not getting the PEN blackstar at that point.
(1-0.048)^20
So instead of a 50% chance of having achieved PEN blackstar after 20 attempts, it's actually closer to 63.6%.
---------------------
Do note that this is not claiming that any individual attempt has any greater or lesser chance of succeeding, but rather as a cumulative total.
Just play the game guys lmao
BDOs enhancing system is so stupid
On average means that youll also not hit it within 100 tries as much times as youll hit it in within 4 tries... people forget that a lot. Average 1 in 20 times doesnt mean anything really.
Pretty ignorant thing to say, but ok. Wont argue with someone who cannot understand what the basic concept of "average" means lol.
I get your defense but didnt mean to attack you ;) on average is where most people won't get because they wont have anywhere close to enough times tried to have a proper average. Watching balrog fail 42 out of 44 tet assecory tries with 30% chance is an example for that, 'on average youll get 1 in 3.3' but... many new people (your audience also and ur making insanely great guides and vids) would quit the game after losing even 10 tet accessory tries getting 0. I'm saying it cause I don't want people to get the wrong impression of the system and be absolutely gutted afterwards and then quit cause of a wrong expectation. It happens quite often that 0 out of 10 succeed with 30% chance, while people think 'atleast ill get one, prolly 3 and if im lucky 5'
@@GoodIdeaGaming a 4,20% chance to hit that PEN blackstar in 20 attempts has a 57,6% chance to get it. Calc that with cron costs (3679crons per and lets say a 1mio price cause costume melting would be around 73billion worth of crons alone).
Sounds like a bad deal given you can grab your kzarka / offin c19 for way less with the same outcome. Mob dmg on blackstar is worthless.
@@SoukenIDK I dont think you realize how much better pen bs compared to pen kzarka c20
@@bigmegas i do. A minor amount of mob dmg for a roughly 30b loss once dead god weapons drop.
Those 100 trash more per hour wont get you your money back.
I'm from the future. I'll warn you. In the future, Pearl Abyss will give free PEN blackstar (main or awake)
And also, the price will crash to 70b and still going down.
And also, just before I'll go back to the future, blackstar isn't the BiS anymore in the future. But save 4x pen blackstar (2 main and 2 awake) you can also prepare 2 pen bs sub to make the new BiS weapon.
It took me 10 taps on a 285 stack to get my pen bs. Was a tough grind...
Congrats on the good luck!
Instablaster
How did you get to 200FS?
@@iceloves9436 Failing..
the whole video i thought, bla bla bla CLICK THAT FKING BUTTON, dislike
built 2 210 stacks from TET blackstar attempts, good times. Guess I gotta smash some PEN accessory attempts
Is building a failstack like this expensive with memory fragments? I’ve never really understood failstacking and have only rolled on advice of valks scrolls
The idea of getting two stacks and keeping them sameish is pointless in a game of pure RNG. Just build one, if it fails, start again
I'd agree with you from the chances perspective. It really makes no difference. In fact. You're kinda extending the process unnecessarily.
HOWEVER. what it DOES do us mitigate the gut punch you feel when you blow one. It makes the fails hit less. Cuz you never feel like you've gone to zero.
but bro you said for pen bs better have +230 and up but how i can get it? my mean i have one 201 fs but i scrare to enhance it with boss gear cauase if it dont get fail my stack will fucked for ever,and you just get 10-15 bil silver from that boss gear
Bruh, why you have army of Shai with bunch of old guys? This. Is. Wrong.
I started playing mid December 2022 on Xbox. 1 tapped my BS Mainhand to Pen with a J Hammer on a 209 stack while still in season and I just got my Pen Awakening in 6 attempts with a 240 stack 😂 I am Mega RNG carried.
WOw, that's so lucky. How did you get to 200 FS?
I build the 200+ stacks as I’m going for TET BlackStar attempts. If a failstack reaches 200 I stop using that stack and save it for Pen accessories and Pen BlackStar attempts. When the Devs hand out Devouring Hungers I use them to feed the stack up to 240.
what was the point of watching this before going pen bs? haha just a bunch of fluff...
Got 2x J's expiring mid June and only 100ish FS. Do I need to start building? Build on boss pen attempts?
Thats my question
140 bil + in crons alone for a 90 bil weapon. sounds legit
It’s 3.6bil what
Tried 16x with 250~255 FS. 80bi on average with cron. In such a situation, if you get to the market price, would you keep clicking until it goes up one day? I know I haven't reached the average of attempts yet, but it's something so complicated, my fear is reaching 30~40 and not going up. Sry bad english.
I used a j’s hammer and had a 20% chance on tet zarka and still failed 14 times I have not tried upgrading anything since
Wtf how tf did you get a 20% chance on pen bs
@@Clowncentral101 not on blackstar on tet zarka
ur awful for using js hammer on tet taps...
@@Dreyden12274 it still failed regardless
Call me crazy, but I don't see how using 2 failstacks would be more cost effective. odds of success are the same regardless of how many big failstacks you have. Doing 2 failstacks actually seems detrimental as you are immobilising a lot of ressources on a stack you will not actually use as you are always building an extra failstack.
The point is that you're trying to push the stack higher without losing it, so that's where the backup comes in.
@@bayrock1337 Mathematically you just need fewer stacks if you just do stacks 1 by 1. 2 stack method allows you to see progress more clearly, but it forces you to spend more ressources to do so.
4% chance, fails = weeks of grinding, Good game.
Truly is! Def NOT a snowflake MMO, and that's why I like this game.
@@lmoral222 def not a snowflake game, snowflakes have time to melt, become water, evaporate, become vapor, become water in the atmosphere, fall to the earth and become snowflakes again, and you will have failed 5 enhance and be 20 GS lower then you were. Def not for snowflakes like me. :P
@@StonedAF101 Then, uhh, don't enhance, maybe? xD
@@lmoral222 Yea pen kzarka was like 17bil last i played i aint got months to spend grinding for 1 items when there's tons of other games out there more rewarding. Dont get me wrong not bashing on bdo, bdo is a great game, the combat and graphics are top tier... but the enhancement system is what pushed me and many, many other people away.
@@StonedAF101 Sounds good. Sorry, I don't mean to bash you personally, or at least seem like it. You seem cool. For me, I like that the game is super grindy, and the PvX setting + the "endless" grind keeps me motivated to keep pushing. Definitely not a game for everyone, I think the game appeals to a niche, that niche being super grindy, long term, Play/Pay2Win, fully PvX mmorpg. One good thing I can think of is, hey, least there's no actual sub. When new regions release, or content, you can hop in any time and explore around :) but yeah, I went from full TET everything, to full PEN armor+weapons, which took me about 9 month >_< haha. I like it though, IDK how to really explain. Maybe I like pain and suffering, who knows
EDIT: Prices of PENs dropped drastically over the past month or so. Zaka goes for less than 15 bil, last I checked. If I remember to, I'll come back and let you know what it is. Have a good one :)
Pen bs fs building with pen urugons, if it goes its 25bil if it goes 4x u can just buy pen bs off the market 🤣
Yep all my raw taps lately = urugons haha. A 260-280+ stack is worth more then 20b though, so once it gets over that its ehhhh haha.
@@GoodIdeaGaming why the urugons are so high when muskans are soo cheap when the endgame is eva build goal
@@Tomil4444 because only 1% is at end game
@@GoodIdeaGaming yup wish you could trade like 20k black stones for a 200 or a 250 stack or something like that
Bro, I've got 25 fails on BS 19. I've got a 191 stack and 136, I did a few tries with Crone stones.
2 of my guild mate get PEN BS by using 150FS + J hammer.
Got mine awk bs at 37th tap at 161 fs. Won’t recommend and i wish I had made a higher fs like 250 looks reasonable. At the end I would recommend buy instead of enchant.
Yeah PEN BS anywhere in the 100s is an oof :(
Honestly 37 at 161 is not terrible
Even with 250fs ur chance are what 1%more? In the end u need to have lots rng dosent matter 3.60 or 4.60% its all carried and 36 taps are still lucky, its not like u have guaranteed pen bs in 20th taps with 230fs thats not how this game actually works sadly
@@koiba6386 believe me it make a huge diff . I’ve made my tet fg, tet labreska and now pen bs offhand all with 5% and the results are 1 tap, 13 and 13 taps
@@zeneto80 that means you're just getting carried, I got my Mainhand BS V on a 120fs, you're just as likely to hit 96 and up as hitting 95 and up, it doesn't make a difference.
Lol I got my pen black start with a 160 stack
Hello Salt. What do you think about selling pen bs on market? Good choice or not?
I tet my blackstar with 102 ..
Too many Wizards and not enough Shai.....
Got a 352 fs, gonna pen accessories with it
All your alts look the same o_O
Yolo'd mine @100 fs 🥶
Just hit mine on 214 lol
Which is better for pve?
This info is depressive..
Great stuff as always Salt!
Glad you enjoyed!
Got my V Gauntlet on EU first tap wit 150stack + 10 Valks and 1 J's hammer xD... I guess I was in the 0.0001 percent of people getting it first try?( yes, BlackStar)
nice, super lucky, grats!
Ha it’s only 55mil on console 👌 our market is depressing
Tf what region? It’s 78mil NA
@@Clowncentral101 it’s 2 months ago
@@Clowncentral101 🤡
@@kv1008 ok fuckin dumbass didn’t know if you were in a different region
@@Clowncentral101 check the date b4 making a date depending comment??
And here i am getting kerrid on 4 taps 117fs pen bs mh cronned and 2 taps 163fs pen awk hammered :>
My 3 PEN BS mainhand 1/1 205 fs, awaken 1/4 210 fs, offhand 1/4 225 fs, all without cron
What a dramatic guy, I got my PEN Bs with 201 FS at 4,22%
Mine went on a 196 FS with a 4.12%
Really over dramatic, got mine at 110fs.
got mine at 2fs, not carried at all and everyone can easily do that as well
@@Chris3s I mean... that's technically true
He’s dramatic but all he does in game is tap stuff and affords to keep doing it every single day. I trust his judgment when he has profited trillions (literally).
I hit my V bs on a 187 stack. It was my 6th attempt. Previous attempts were with j hammers at lower stacks (160).
Once a stack gets to 180 that’s when I’d save it for V bs. Either cron/hammer them starting here. If you want to push it up get a back up and push it up with that. Could also use this stack for tri fallen god to push it up.
180 is a shit stack for pen BS. This is terrible advice
@@bgdowns10171 lol and what would you hit on a 180? You realize to get a bigger stack you have to start somewhere?
180 is a perfectly fine and acceptable stack to start building on and attempting V bs. If it hits 240-250 I’d stop and try with a new 150-180 stack and save the 240-250 for V accessories.
I’d think that advice is “terrible” you are new to the new game. Those are pretty standard recommendations
@@aviatinggamer9051 No it isnt lmao. 180 is right around where you stop TET blackstar.
Are you raw tapping PEN blackstar from 180 to 240? Are you serious? NEVER raw tap pen blackstar lmao. Its literally better to buy vendor crons on a proper stack than do what you do. Your advice isn't "standard". Its flat out complete shit. You are legitimately hard griefing yourself
Horrendous advice. Anyone reading this for the love of god DO NOT do this. This guy is either a flat out troll or completely ignorant.
Just got mine tonight on a 167 stack in 2 taps.. 🥹