I was trying to convince my friend saying "It's the same chance per attempt so it doesn't matter how many attempts" that probabilities and chance are not the same. The more attempts smooths the curve rather than having outlier results like 8 fails in a row or like 3 successes in a row. If you're risking nearly all your silver for 1-2 attempts then your variance is going to be wild. I think I said that correctly.
This is a discussion of the gambler’s fallacy . That doesn’t apply to these rolls because we are asking a different question and because the rolls are not independent as the stack grows and one failure makes a subsequent success more likely . The gambler’s fallacy only applies when the rolls are actually independent and don’t affect each other and when the question is what will I roll in this one chance .
One thing I like doing, because it is simple to do at a glance, is just divide PRI by Base. Just looking at some Base -> PRI it is easy to find some from time to time that are 4x the value (or more), though typically they hover around x3. Playing to averages, if you had 6 base, 2 on average will go and 1 will fail...2 PRI value would equal 6 original bases. If it was x4 the value, then on average you would have 6 base, with 2 going PRI, that would equal out to 8 bases.
This video is definitely interesting and the calculations all make sense, I was going to enhance some Pen gear to sell like your previous video where you showed the math but in the end I caved and bought the gear I wanted/needed since I don't want to have my time grinding for all that silver to be wasted if I fall out of the range of average lol.
Yep I hate to say it, but with 10% or so chance that is not too crazy too happen. Its unlucky for sure, but its going to happen more then u think sadly.
I got so lucky. I failed 20 tet bs attempts. Got a fs up to 206. I was decided if something doesnt go im quitting. I rage taped 3 tet bs attempts in a row and it finally went down to duo. I tried to pen my kutum and failed and it went to tri. I only had one thing left. My tet crescent ring. I smashed it at 211 fs and it popped to pen at like 10.34% success or something. It succeeded basically a one tap to pen. My gs was super low and up until this point I only had like 10b net worth across pve and pvp. 2 tri manos and 4 tri gerano. I sold it for 48b which was like 41b at the end and bought full tri manos (4) accessories and tet manos cook cloths, hoe, and gather cloths. Bought my tet bs. Smashed my tri kutum back to tet kutum after a bunch of failed attempts. Enchanted an ogre ring to tet and a crescent ring to tet with the two remaining 100fs I had and now im sitting comfortably in the game with no worries other than a rather I want a vells heart or khans life heart.
I have failed 8 tris in a row for necklaces, I have also failed 9 duos in a row. Stuff is ridiculous some times. Keeping it going though because I need that TET
I used a 110 stack trying to make my self-crafted Blackstar weapon to TET... I'm now up to 151. Should I keep trying for TET? I wasn't really doing it for profit, more for the enjoyment of creating it myself and getting a nice gear upgrade but now I think I should use that stack on something else. Any insight?
If you are not doing it for profit, you can go up to 180-200 if you want no problem. Def stop at 200 though haha. For profit & mathematically correct plays, I would try to stick to between 130 - 160 for the range to click TET bs.
Interesting video, but I really would appreciate if you put in the failstack values into the formula to point out the profit/loss more clearly. Basically you were using wrong numbers for most calculations since you did not include the previous failstack values for making the PRI to TRI parts.
Thank you so much. I was wondering if I could do something productive with my literally hundreds of 20/40 stacks and all the accessories I get from all the ancient ruins mobs. Some guildie had some basic explanation but I wasn't exactly confident. Ultimately he was right but I feel way more confident now being able to chew through the numbers myself. It's not even hard math, just gotta know what to do.
In order to get to tri it takes between 21-22. Laughs in 64 base tungrad rings with 0 tris. FS used 25 for pris, 40 for duos 50+ for tris... Everytime I try to tap tri acc between 45-55 it fails. I've never done tri acc below 60fs. I can tap easily duos and tets, but tris are my worst nightmare
The very same thing here, for a very long time i was unable to tap tri, but 30sec later i was one tapping tet... But now i feel that my luck is better, less and less tri fails...
theory is nice... but when your account is rigged... doesnt matter what chance etc you got... 3billion on laytenns... not a single TRI... even with overstack... if u wanna rly make profit... just sell MON or maybe DUO... maybe u are lucky but for example iam not :(. i dont know what i can do... its just exhausting... and it makes me wanna quit the game.
@@GoodIdeaGaming ye... i did spent another 3billion... iam done with this game... like i said. its exhausting and very very depressing... cya black desert and good luck to you all fellas! mayve u are luckier
I don't think you understood what people wanted when they asked you this question. People who have no interest in playing the market numbers game, and just want to know where they can use these mats and failstacks they are holding onto, to "luck" into a big profit. Anyone who truly understands the real odds would never play this losing "gamble" game, but people who want that thrill of winning when they "luck out" and beat those odds, want advice on where there might be some sweet "wins".
Well yeah if you wanted to make profit from 1 click I hate to disappoint but you got to get lucky for that. Over hundreds/thousands, its less about luck and more about putting in the numbers and work.
![[Black Desert] PEN Boss Gear Exchange Questline / Event Guide | Jetina Questline](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/8K9cuxq_Uyg/mqdefault.jpg)
![[Full] 4 ต่อ 4 Celebrity EP.920 | 3 พ.ย. 67 | one31](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/KwiW2M_kAg4/mqdefault.jpg)
Damn this guy sure runs around in circles before getting to the point on like every single vid.
I was trying to convince my friend saying "It's the same chance per attempt so it doesn't matter how many attempts" that probabilities and chance are not the same. The more attempts smooths the curve rather than having outlier results like 8 fails in a row or like 3 successes in a row. If you're risking nearly all your silver for 1-2 attempts then your variance is going to be wild. I think I said that correctly.
This is a discussion of the gambler’s fallacy . That doesn’t apply to these rolls because we are asking a different question and because the rolls are not independent as the stack grows and one failure makes a subsequent success more likely . The gambler’s fallacy only applies when the rolls are actually independent and don’t affect each other and when the question is what will I roll in this one chance .
Really happy to know this, at the same time, I don't want any other people to watch this video. ONLY ME PLZ
One thing I like doing, because it is simple to do at a glance, is just divide PRI by Base.
Just looking at some Base -> PRI it is easy to find some from time to time that are 4x the value (or more), though typically they hover around x3.
Playing to averages, if you had 6 base, 2 on average will go and 1 will fail...2 PRI value would equal 6 original bases. If it was x4 the value, then on average you would have 6 base, with 2 going PRI, that would equal out to 8 bases.
This video is definitely interesting and the calculations all make sense, I was going to enhance some Pen gear to sell like your previous video where you showed the math but in the end I caved and bought the gear I wanted/needed since I don't want to have my time grinding for all that silver to be wasted if I fall out of the range of average lol.
That's the real issue, praying for above average..
thanks i needed to hear this was feeling burnt out after failing pen 30+ times and making a 203 stack
Yep I hate to say it, but with 10% or so chance that is not too crazy too happen. Its unlucky for sure, but its going to happen more then u think sadly.
I don't plan on doing it,, but damn this shit is enjoyable to watch. Loved the vid. Keep it up!
TY!
I got so lucky. I failed 20 tet bs attempts. Got a fs up to 206. I was decided if something doesnt go im quitting. I rage taped 3 tet bs attempts in a row and it finally went down to duo. I tried to pen my kutum and failed and it went to tri. I only had one thing left. My tet crescent ring. I smashed it at 211 fs and it popped to pen at like 10.34% success or something. It succeeded basically a one tap to pen. My gs was super low and up until this point I only had like 10b net worth across pve and pvp. 2 tri manos and 4 tri gerano. I sold it for 48b which was like 41b at the end and bought full tri manos (4) accessories and tet manos cook cloths, hoe, and gather cloths. Bought my tet bs. Smashed my tri kutum back to tet kutum after a bunch of failed attempts. Enchanted an ogre ring to tet and a crescent ring to tet with the two remaining 100fs I had and now im sitting comfortably in the game with no worries other than a rather I want a vells heart or khans life heart.
Wow, take your 1 time of crazy luck and things going perfectly and never do it again haha!
I have failed 8 tris in a row for necklaces, I have also failed 9 duos in a row. Stuff is ridiculous some times. Keeping it going though because I need that TET
I did the same. It feels SO good to hit it though! GL man!
After watching this video i bought 5 basic laytens for min price and tapped all the way to TET on the first try. Awesome 7,3B profit! :)
If you have trouble getting 100 stacks you have to much luck enhancing
I really appreciate you make this video! Thx
No problem!
Thanks brother for this information, you helped me a lot. I really appreciate it
awesome video. im still waiting for the pen capotia necklace. but i might just enhance a tet ogre or layten myself
Any plans what to use your upcoming free 100-110 stack on?..
pen dim/kzarka attempt
Pen dim, kzarka or tet disto, what do You recommend brother ?
you mean the one from daily log in or something i missed?
@@avendreams2057 ye
nice, amazing content, keep it up!
Appreciate it!
I used a 110 stack trying to make my self-crafted Blackstar weapon to TET... I'm now up to 151. Should I keep trying for TET? I wasn't really doing it for profit, more for the enjoyment of creating it myself and getting a nice gear upgrade but now I think I should use that stack on something else. Any insight?
If you are not doing it for profit, you can go up to 180-200 if you want no problem. Def stop at 200 though haha. For profit & mathematically correct plays, I would try to stick to between 130 - 160 for the range to click TET bs.
150 is deep into pen fs territory. I'd start a new stack
@@lowkeylokii4205 how do you increase the stack from 150?
@@guts-692fail pen attempts
Interesting video, but I really would appreciate if you put in the failstack values into the formula to point out the profit/loss more clearly. Basically you were using wrong numbers for most calculations since you did not include the previous failstack values for making the PRI to TRI parts.
What is the equation you are using? I can’t tell on my phone screen lol.
Thank you so much.
I was wondering if I could do something productive with my literally hundreds of 20/40 stacks and all the accessories I get from all the ancient ruins mobs. Some guildie had some basic explanation but I wasn't exactly confident. Ultimately he was right but I feel way more confident now being able to chew through the numbers myself. It's not even hard math, just gotta know what to do.
I got tet disto first tempt on like 140 fs then on third attempt tet disto with 199fs so three total attempts
failed like 8 pri tungrads in a row and then failed duo and tri another 8 times at least :D
yeah fuck this lol
What about Accessories exploding or downgrading?
In order to get to tri it takes between 21-22. Laughs in 64 base tungrad rings with 0 tris. FS used 25 for pris, 40 for duos 50+ for tris...
Everytime I try to tap tri acc between 45-55 it fails. I've never done tri acc below 60fs. I can tap easily duos and tets, but tris are my worst nightmare
The very same thing here, for a very long time i was unable to tap tri, but 30sec later i was one tapping tet...
But now i feel that my luck is better, less and less tri fails...
commenting to help with the algorythm :)
:) Ty!
theory is nice... but when your account is rigged... doesnt matter what chance etc you got... 3billion on laytenns... not a single TRI... even with overstack... if u wanna rly make profit... just sell MON or maybe DUO... maybe u are lucky but for example iam not :(. i dont know what i can do... its just exhausting... and it makes me wanna quit the game.
Base to DUO is usually not terrible for profit, obviously not as good as Base to TET, but usually a good one without risking too much.
@@GoodIdeaGaming ye... i did spent another 3billion... iam done with this game... like i said. its exhausting and very very depressing... cya black desert and good luck to you all fellas! mayve u are luckier
There is no rigging, I one tap v black star on 111fs but fail v dim upto 246fs. It’s all rng. You just have bad luck.
thnx
Loggia TRI, solo dire eso, rompan el mercado
I wonder wat his daily job is :)
I don't think you understood what people wanted when they asked you this question. People who have no interest in playing the market numbers game, and just want to know where they can use these mats and failstacks they are holding onto, to "luck" into a big profit. Anyone who truly understands the real odds would never play this losing "gamble" game, but people who want that thrill of winning when they "luck out" and beat those odds, want advice on where there might be some sweet "wins".
Wouldn't the second half of your equation be (7/10) on the right side because of the 70% chance to obtain?
Look closer, it's (1/.7)
No thanks ill stick to being a smooth brain pleb and grinding for silver LOL
Same :'( too much math hurt my brain
Look like the NA version of a scam call center
Giving out too much info, gonna ruin my market :(
Oh boy you have no idea how much I hold back haha
RNG really makes this video almost useless. But appreciate the effort!
Well yeah if you wanted to make profit from 1 click I hate to disappoint but you got to get lucky for that. Over hundreds/thousands, its less about luck and more about putting in the numbers and work.
Yeah sure meanwhile me enhancing acessories:
Failing 50 times in a row.
Come back when you fail base > pri 9 times in a row :)
@@GoodIdeaGaming that's me a couple hours ago :(
You really spent 25 min trying to convince people not to buy your mats from the market. F
Calculations in this game is meaningless.
I am glad people think like this, its what makes it profitable haha
Useless waste time
How do I report this channel so it never pops up again
It's good to see MagpieCash have new plans to save my money and energy to make money.