An Abnormally Slow Spring Market + Is a Condo Sell Off Coming? Real Estate Roundtable May 2024

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ส.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 80

  • @haukenhung
    @haukenhung 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +20

    Sold my rental property in two weeks. And avoided the June 25 capital gains increase! 😅

    • @segasys1339
      @segasys1339 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      What now? Bitcoin?

    • @G_Ellis606
      @G_Ellis606 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Can't blame u... who wants to pay extra taxes when the country is so mismanaged and corrupt it's disgusting

  • @sam-rv1lv
    @sam-rv1lv 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    More than the interest rates it is the ridiculous prices that is the issue at hand. Look at the average household income versus mortgage on an average home, with taxes and other expenses, what percentage of the population can shell out over 5 to 8k every month for 25 years!

  • @tmb3224
    @tmb3224 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    14:32 is bang on. Everyone is thinking the rate cut will benefit them. Buyers thinking lower monthly payment, but then sellers saying prices to the moon once rates drop. Both can’t be right!!

  • @NietsdlogKram
    @NietsdlogKram 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    The debt-to-income ratio in Canada is close to 1:1.8. That’s a buck eighty spent on every dollar earned. The sell off has already begun. With the capital gains tax on top of it, we’re headed into choppy waters. We have one of the most overpriced RE markets on earth. If the recent US court case against realtors is any indication, the situation here is about to change in favour of buyers. It’s about bloody time.

  • @Cameron_David_
    @Cameron_David_ 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    That chart showing the drop in first time buyers vs explosion of investors is downright depressing.

    • @bramstynen9352
      @bramstynen9352 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      That chart only covers 2015-2017, so it's not clear whether that trend persisted in the last 7 years

    • @KD-ds1lp
      @KD-ds1lp 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      It got worse

  • @denesbastos2001
    @denesbastos2001 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +13

    One immigration thing people are not taking into account is the fact that the government is not just decreasing the number of international students, but also not allowing their spouses to work, which was the primary strategy to come to Canada and be able to afford it while studying. This used to give the spousal a Canadian experience which was used to apply for Permanent Residency. Only Master's degree students will be exempt from this rule.

    • @kellyhou9594
      @kellyhou9594 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Canada's way of saying we want rich immigrants and high skill workers.
      This is one way to lower immigration demands.

  • @rorythomson3439
    @rorythomson3439 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Anyone buying presale right now risks having their money tied up in a project that might not break ground for a while, no?

    • @Julie-rg3mb
      @Julie-rg3mb 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Worse than that, they risk losing their money to builders going bankrupt.

  • @Carolinapetroska
    @Carolinapetroska 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Now with the foreign buyers out and the decrease in international students and permanent residents plus high interest rates, and all negative government interventions, the real estate market is really doomed. Price will further decline month over month. More and more people are leaving the Canadian market permanently and go to nicer, friendlier countries where your money goes a long way....

    • @jasperalberts7647
      @jasperalberts7647 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      All the bulls don't realize how many under-40 (pre-prime earning years) Canadian citizens are looking at moving their tax residency elsewhere from this frozen non-innovating socialist backwater. This is the monster lurking in the weeds (in addition to what you've mentioned).

  • @heathmckenzie6875
    @heathmckenzie6875 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    I think there is tremendous downside risk in real estate prices in Canada. If the BoC is cutting rates 6 times, think about why they would be doing that.

    • @mikep_987
      @mikep_987 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Cutting rates 6 times doesn't mean much if each cut is only 25 basis points. And as the folks point out in the video, mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, not the BoC rate.

    • @KD-ds1lp
      @KD-ds1lp 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      We went from 6 cuts to may be 2 lol. I call rate increase in September.

  • @dutchgirl7603
    @dutchgirl7603 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I'm watching. 😊 Planning to move shortly and value the information in your discussions.

  • @HaydonAshurstFamily
    @HaydonAshurstFamily 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great discussion. Appreciate you guys keeping me informed
    Regarding policies designed to mitigate price declines: I would prefer less policy involvement in the resale and in the rental market. Let the over-leveraged go belly up and stop trying to force the private sector to provide subsidized housing via rent control. Too many unintended consequences/inefficiencies as a result of policy makers trying to micromanage. Let the market sort shit out as much as possible (obv we need some regulation, but gov’t involvement is way beyond optimal now).

  • @jtome84-91
    @jtome84-91 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    The reality of condos not appreciating for the foreseeable future will kill the condo market .

    • @Carolinapetroska
      @Carolinapetroska 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      It's already in a long coma....

  • @Peter-sz1sn
    @Peter-sz1sn 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Great show - thank you guys!

  • @paulinebowen5170
    @paulinebowen5170 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Fantastic discussion. Look forward each month to this podcast. Looks like trouble coming to RE market in next few months..years....maybe opportunities?

    • @MoveSmartly
      @MoveSmartly  3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @paulinebowen5170 - Thanks for watching and your support! ~ Urmi

  • @ykhov
    @ykhov 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Nature is healing.

  • @mikethomas6715
    @mikethomas6715 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    @24:36 Ouch! You are hitting the Leaves harder & more than their last opponent.

  • @zeliadesousa3747
    @zeliadesousa3747 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    THIS NOW is the best time to buy a RESALE condo with a VARIABLE mortgage in Toronto. As far as owners of pre-construction, they should rent so that they don't lose their shirt. Landlords need to increase rent prices.

  • @kurtr847
    @kurtr847 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    As a potential move up buyer and condo seller, i am frozen since i need rates to go down to at least breakeven when selling my condo. I think alot of other people are probably in the same scenario.

    • @bobwinters5572
      @bobwinters5572 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      All this talk about interest rates and no mention of employment. Central banks don't raise or lower rates in a vacuum. Lower rates don't usually mean "woo, people can afford houses now" or "woo, people can sell houses for more now." Lower rates almost always mean jobs are rapidly disappearing and businesses are going bankrupt. Just because rapid job disappearance didn't mean less money in people's pockets during covid, doesn't mean the gov't will be sending everyone thousands of dollars every month when the next recession hits.

    • @Julie-rg3mb
      @Julie-rg3mb 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@bobwinters5572The problem is that the US government made the mistake of keeping rates low when the economy was booming, which isn’t something that typically happens. They were able to get away with it in the 2010s due to massive offshoring which kept inflation in check. Everyone now believes that this is normal, even though it was likely a once in a lifetime event. Inflation will simply rear its ugly head if we try to lower rates too much unless the economy is in shambles.
      AI might play the role in the future that offshoring did in the past, but not on time for this cycle. We’re in a recession now, and it remains to be seen if we’ll rip off the remaining bandaid, and endure quick pain, or just keep slowing pulling and suffering through it.

  • @calisthenicsnoob9990
    @calisthenicsnoob9990 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    To get a decent house (around 2000 sq ft) you need a household income of around 200k, what portion of canadians make that?

    • @Jancan20
      @Jancan20 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Fake income statements, it is more prevalent than anyone thinks

  • @FamilyCheung-kc1pw
    @FamilyCheung-kc1pw 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Ppl are flocking to Calgary recently but the unemployment rate is higher and higher, 7.7% now. Ppl cannot find a job . I want to see how they are going to do in Calgary , stay or leave with no job opportunities.

  • @equestrian71
    @equestrian71 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Steve is in a good mood. Surprise!

    • @siddiqze
      @siddiqze 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Coz it’s sunny !

  • @latananderson3289
    @latananderson3289 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    So the permanent immigration target is 500k plus 300k in "Temp residents" EACH YEAR . We only build 200k homes a year as a nation.... I'd still be bullish on housing if I had property. The demand is still through the roof, its just that certain markets like Toronto and Vancouver are unaffordable in terms of price.

    • @m.b5777
      @m.b5777 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Wrong! That is not the target. And the target is not permanent. The government can change it in 5 minutes. It doesn't need any new legislation or parliamentary approval to do that. The next conservative government will drastically cut it.

  • @bcb777
    @bcb777 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Just wondering how the new capital gains regulations will affect the condo resell market?

  • @kurtr847
    @kurtr847 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Do condo townhouses follow the same price and listing trend as condo apartments?

  • @fawadkarimzaad9016
    @fawadkarimzaad9016 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    There’s a reason we have rate cuts that many don’t understand. Economy might be tanking and higher unemployment. Do rational people normally buy houses when unemployment is high and the economy is bad?

    • @user-vi8ci2bi6b
      @user-vi8ci2bi6b 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      The answer is NO.
      Every recession I've lived through (and I'm old) the bottom of the housing market is 2 years after the first rate cut.

    • @myt1soo320
      @myt1soo320 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The answer is you’re absolutely WRONG.
      Your age doesn’t make you knowledgeable lol.. in fact, it has no bearing on the issue.
      RE markets across the world go through ups and downs… but Canada is different? Low rates and speculative buyers are the ones that have let the Canadian re market thrive.
      RE prices and rental rates have a breaking point… and we seem to have touched it now. Only a fool would think it can just keep going up…EVERYTHING has a limit and people will be forced to stay out of buying or they’ll realize it’s cheaper to rent.
      The government and economists have said the rates will stay high… minimal rate cuts if any. So any speculative investor won’t be jumping back in anytime soon.
      The builders can’t just sit out forever, they got payroll, shareholders and other expenses to worry about. Sure, they can wait it out temporarily or they can realize that the massive profit margins are a thing of the past.
      Btw, nz implemented multi family zoning across the board and it brought down housing prices and rental rates, now, they are the beacon of affordable housing. They went through a little pain too
      When prices do drop and rental rates drop due to more multi families being built…those of us with rental properties need to consider if we will still have cash flow in our investment properties when this happens. You need to seriously consider selling now…
      btw, this is one of the reasons that apartment sales/prices are dropping. You add the mortgage, property taxes, property management, cap ex, insurance, PLUS the condo fees and your investment won’t cash flow.
      I’m old too… but I don’t use it as an excuse for credibility.

    • @KD-ds1lp
      @KD-ds1lp 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Rate cuts would be the worst. They need to be higher. BOC job is not to see if houses sell lol. How old are you? Did you live through 89?

    • @user-vi8ci2bi6b
      @user-vi8ci2bi6b 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Oct of 87 the stock market crashed (black Monday it was tagged) and sent a ripple effect through Canada and the US.
      Mass layoffs followed, can't remember what it did to property values but I'm sure it wasn't good.

  • @mediaburn2
    @mediaburn2 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    People can take a lot of pain when they can't just toss in the keys.

  • @MrPitbull_00
    @MrPitbull_00 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Only speculators need to worry, those in for the long run have really nothing to worry about imo

    • @user-vi8ci2bi6b
      @user-vi8ci2bi6b 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      True.
      As long as you didn't tap into your equity

    • @myt1soo320
      @myt1soo320 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I suggest looking at nz…. They implemented multi family across the board like Canada. Now it’s considered affordable… when rental rates drop and you can can still cash flow, long term looks good. If you can’t, long term is now questionable

  • @theUnmanifest
    @theUnmanifest 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    my take:
    China's wealth fueled by the biggest real estate bubble of all time with the government deeply intertwined in it, exacerbating the problem.
    This unnatural wealth spilled out of China and into other global re markets wherever Chinese citizens are involved and expat themselves to and invest like the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada...
    this new inflow of capital was enough to destabilize traditionally very stable and predictable markets.
    makes sense if a market is stable, add anything to it and it will logically lose it's stability.
    Now that the Chinese RE bubble popped, taking the air out of all RE bubbles they created around the world.
    The collapse is already massive in China, sucking back in all the excess...
    And now the fire has been extinguished from traditionally sleepy markets.
    What fueled the bubbles isn't there anymore, like taking the foundation, the legs from under the table.
    So all these international RE bubbles are now suspended, hanging in the air like Wile E Coyote, before what seems to be an inevitable free fall of a scale never seen before.
    Government and people will try to slowdown the fall as much as they can, but there are no real safety nets below.
    it seems it will be a race to the bottom and a painful landing unless some miracle happens

    • @makerKID5
      @makerKID5 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I agree with this take. This played a role for sure and look at Evergrande much of this wealth was fraud. Canada was mostly safe in that era as well now the area these people frequented: Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto is destabilizing a bit. Canada is not that attractive at the moment. I'm not saying it's over for Canada but there is a clear change in the quality of life. Car thefts are through the roof for example.

    • @hanswhite8620
      @hanswhite8620 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      There are very few if any Chinese immigrants in the Nordics, yet we have experienced the same rise in real estate prices... Its just the low rates.

    • @theUnmanifest
      @theUnmanifest 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@hanswhite8620
      not necessarily, I'm not saying it's the only factor and that low rates are not an important factor,
      But the facts the Nordics or somewhere else experienced a bubble as well could still be more ripples of the tsunami of artificial wealth that has spilled out of China, the secondary waves of new rich benefitting from the secondary bubbles in Canada, Australia etc..., now pouring their own overflowing wealth in other markets, shifting their balance...

    • @user-vi8ci2bi6b
      @user-vi8ci2bi6b 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The bubble in Germany would affect the Nordics

  • @JohnDoeses
    @JohnDoeses 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    RAISE THE RATES

  • @chrisnott1970
    @chrisnott1970 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The chart at 49:00 only covers 2015-2017. That was 6.5 years ago! Did the trend continue?

  • @relaxationmusic2986
    @relaxationmusic2986 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Man Steve saw the house u sold on Georgia st for 1.6 maaan should told me I would bought it

  • @myt1soo320
    @myt1soo320 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This is perfect! There needs to be pain before any gain. Pricing is high, rental rates are high and construction costs are high…speculators and investors need to know that nothing continuously rises. Rates need to stay high rental rates need to drop and construction costs drop followed by home prices dropping

    • @kellyhou9594
      @kellyhou9594 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      unlikely to happen because demand exceeds the supply.
      It is hard for home prices to be lower due to high cost.
      Land, labor, material, interest, and tax is high; how can it go cheaper?
      Even if the seller offer their units cheaper, buyers will bid it until it reaches market pricing.
      I have been waiting for the housing price to crash since 2008 and I can tell you it will not happen.

    • @myt1soo320
      @myt1soo320 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@kellyhou9594 I’d advise you to hold off… events are changing things right before your eyes. You need to look ahead instead of being preoccupied with the immediate:
      1) multi family zoning across Canada. NZ implemented this and it brought down their rental rates and housing prices.
      2) interest rates aren’t going back down to covid levels, low interest rates are a thing of the past. It might drop 100 points, that’s not a game changer
      3) capital gains tax, say goodbye to the flippers and investors. With mortgages being so high, rental income doesn’t cover their expenses. A lot of them will be forced to sell. Look at apartments now… those are the lower income investors whose rental incomes can’t cover their mortgages. Inventory is high and still nobody is buying.
      4). Immigration is being cut, mainly focusing on temporary and students residents. Rents are already dropping or there’s incentives like 1 month free.
      5) steady supply of prebuilt condos that will be ready this year and the next. All the investors are already trying to sell, but they can’t and this means a lot more rental properties entering the market. Rates already dropping and this will lower rates. Investors will be forced to sell
      6) refinancing new mortgages at higher interest rates, a lot of buyers who bought at the top enjoyed the low rates. When they refinance at higher prices, they will be forced to sell… not all, but enough
      7). Application for new developments has stalled, when this happens, the natural step is for the builders, contractors, manufacturers and suppliers to start lowering their prices to actually compete for new business.
      This means lower building costs.
      8) lower building costs = lower prices to build a home than to buy. For investors, why build a single family home when you can now build a multifamily? More multi family homes means more properties available to rent = lower rental prices.
      9) look at Canada’s population, its dwindling…. There’s actually not enough kids being born = less buyers and more properties available for rent or purchase
      10) aging population, the baby boomers make up about 27% of the population. Relatively speaking, a high majority own homes and those will come onto the market
      Now is an awful time to buy, don’t get caught up in the FMO…. Wait to see how this plays out, if this apartment inventory continues to go up and rental rates go down, this will trickle down to single family homes. Prices will drop.
      NOTHING EVER continues to go up in price…. Nothing! It will eventually bottom out. The only thing that kept the prices high are speculators and low interest rates. That’s why you’ve only seen prices go up…. Now that interest rates will stay high, speculators will think twice and look for better options. If rental rates lower, all investors living off rental incomes will need to sell.
      And for long term investments… what do you think will happen to real estate prices when the population doesn’t increase and actually starts dropping?
      There is a limit to how much people can afford to pay… we reached it or are very close to it Not only this, another factor for prices to stay high is because renting a place is so expensive. When renting becomes cheaper than owning and you have more rental options, you’ll see prices dropping soon after.

  • @user-kv4kp4co1r
    @user-kv4kp4co1r 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Hey Steve, we have had enough of passive income. Get ready to roll up your sleeves for some active income.

  • @Relaxlifeisshort2
    @Relaxlifeisshort2 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    The big thing is unemployment
    Not inflation

    • @-Nab-
      @-Nab- 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Have you seen the price of gold? It’s definitely an inflation story too

    • @Relaxlifeisshort2
      @Relaxlifeisshort2 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@-Nab- that is not what i am saying
      I am sayimg they will cut not because if inflation but because of high unemployment

    • @-Nab-
      @-Nab- 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Relaxlifeisshort2 sorry I misunderstood
      Yes I think they will cut because of unemployment even if inflation remains sticky
      Stagflation all written over it

  • @lynnspencer7753
    @lynnspencer7753 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    $2500 per sq ft. Yikes.

  • @bobwinters5572
    @bobwinters5572 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    All this talk about interest rates and no mention of employment. Central banks don't raise or lower rates in a vacuum. Lower rates don't usually mean "woo, people can afford houses now" or "woo, people can sell houses for more now." Lower rates almost always mean jobs are rapidly disappearing and businesses are going bankrupt. Just because rapid job disappearance didn't mean less money in people's pockets during covid, doesn't mean the gov't will be sending everyone thousands of dollars every month when the next recession hits.

  • @bluefm7370
    @bluefm7370 3 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Greed is addictive.

  • @dutchgirl7603
    @dutchgirl7603 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Twinkie bet on number of new home starts in 2024 😅😅

  • @soniajames-tn4mp
    @soniajames-tn4mp 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2024

    • @WalterDorcas
      @WalterDorcas 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.

  • @sugadre123
    @sugadre123 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Unusually slow 😂