Audi's CEO says fossil car demand will crash in 2026, making ICE expensive
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 เม.ย. 2024
- Audi's CEO says fossil car demand will crash in 2026, making ICE expensive
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Electric car sales in Jordan exceeded 90-95 % last month ,I hope you shed light on that.
source?
German cars were always king in Netherlands, but last month top 3 brands in sales were Toyota Tesla and Volvo. It is mostly hybrid now, then followed by ev and petrol which means here pure ICE already collapsed now not 2026 Big shifts are already here and Germany seems to be in a total collapse
Winding down the ICE market will be far more difficult and more precipitous than anyone thinks.
- as Sam points out, winding down production lines doesn't work: if you produce less on a given line the cost of the vehicle MUST go up, fast. Which will suppress sales further. It's a downward spiral.
- as people switch, many dealerships WILL close: the economics of dealerships are built on service revenues, and fewer ICE cars means falling revenues. But that isn't off-set by EV maintenance: well-built EVs (not the crap from GM, VW, etc. thus far) need very little maintenance. And as dealerships close, that'll drive ever more car owners to consider an EV for their next purchase.
- as people switch to EVs, the economics of gasoline distribution similarly collapse. Integrated oil majors like Shell, Exxon, Chevron: they're ALREADY closing stations across the market, or selling them to naïve independent station operators, who haven't realized they're buying locations that are polluted & can't be sold for non-gas station use without very expensive remediation. They think that won't be necessary for decades, and that they can depreciate the purchase price over decades. Bozos.
- as gas stations close, "range anxiety" will STILL be a thing - but it'll refer to ICE vehicle drivers who realize they now need to drive 30-45 minutes EVEN IN A CITY to fill up the tank with gas. THAT will drive EV sales.
- as disruption kills most car companies (& most EV startups), industry consolidation will occur. And new car buyers will ask themselves whether they believe the company whose product they're considering looks safe. A car is the second largest purchase most people ever make; you want to know the company that produced it will be around to service it. And you want to know there'll be a resale market for the car when/if you want to sell it. Buyer worries about car company collapse will trigger increased market consolidation, as people shift their purchase to the brands they expect to survive.
Ever EV purchase reduces the ICE car economy, and as reduction occurs it'll drive ICE car usage down ever more quickly. Faster than people realize now.
GM is toast. VW, Toyota, most other legacy manufacturers: they're going bankrupt, or surviving only with government bailouts, if governments are stupid enough to give them your tax dollars as a reward for having their heads up their collective, um, a4$$ets. And there's going to be a LOT of consolidation in the marketplace as car companies merge in hopes of winning a small part of those bailouts.
Excellent post and correct on all accounts. It's a bit of an exponential ramp due to all kinds of negative feedback as you nicely outline, negative feedbacks that all interdigitate and reinforce each other. And high on the list of negative feedback is the potential contagion of awareness that this is a dead technology or at least that it's dying fast, so you better get out while the getting is good. When's that awareness starts to spread you will see panic selling, and massive cratering of any demand, as used ice Vehicles flood the market for next to nothing. And as many of them probably won't sell, this will of course seriously exacerbate all the other issues you were nicely outline
Audi is way too expensive with their ev’s in Canada. I won’t buy one when I compare what my buddy in Norway paid. I’d feel like a fool shelling out double for the same thing. I understand the support they get in Norway but non the less prices here are just over the top.
From someone that has an Audi E Tron and ICE Audi Q7 , I can tell you the ICE Q7 is better because their EV ranges are an absolute pain! I only get 200km out of an 80% range while my Q7 gets almost 1,000km. If Audi fixes their range and lower their prices on EVs than they may have a chance.
Tony seba said for oil prices to collapse (not decrease) if only 1 million barrels of oil demand reduces , for that to happen we need to replace 20%(300 million cars )of all existing cars to electric cars
Thats the same sort of opinion from the Audi-boss as Bill Gates „no one will ever need a computer with more then 640 kB memory“ 🤣🤣🤣
EREVs are nessasary to allow infrastructure to evolve to support EVs without resulting in massive holes in supply and demand.
Probably even sooner.
Wasn't this what Herbert Diess was saying before they kicked his butt out?
Yes. Unfortunately Germans don't want to change. Just like Japan
yep. madness.
Legacy industries are very stubborn and resistant to change but with the same eventual ending.
Ice is nice! EV is nEVerland!
Where is an episode of newly released tesla sales figures of Q1 falling way below market expectations...
Took a 5% plunge in premarket
Tesla is coming out with new models at cheaper prices with more range. Why buy now when in 6 months, there will be a better model on the market.
That’s what the Hertz CEO said.
I doubt that this will happen by 2026… still happy to be proven wrong.
The Audi Group's worldwide network of production sites includes the two German sites in Ingolstadt and Neckarsulm, as well as production facilities in Hungary, Belgium and Mexico.
any news on Tesla deliveries today?
Don't get me wrong, I love working on cars... When I decided to pursue Tool & Die Maker... My auto teacher was extremely pissed off at me. He said that could certainly be on a Indy Car or maybe F1 team some day. It's fun working on them and upgrading... but that's when you're young. I've got a family. I don't feel like turning wrenches working on a car. Just get in and go, or hop on my mountain bike and go for a ride. I love the simplicity of Electric Vehicles. Far less moving parts! Full of tech, which is actually much cheaper than my Home Theater Setup. I'd rather have the tech in cars. I'm excited to see what comes out in the future! I am extremely confident in saying that my first E.V. will be a Tesla. I don't see why I'd jump in with any other brand other than the one who is possibly ahead of them all.
Never done more on my car then change a wheel, check tyre pressure, top up screen wash. Genuinely never had to top up oil in my car. So not sure how an EV will change my experience, for the past 10 years then my experience has been walk upto car, pull on door handle, get in and push button to start. Check no warning lights and go.
Thats great to hear! Just be sure to hold onto whatever you are saving, as once the 8 year warrenty is gone, your gonna need it. Sure ICE is complex, but being modular means repairs are cheaper. Unlike EVs, with only 3 parts that cost a minimum of 1k for a repair. EVs are great for anyone who has a short term goal with them. Once they are out of warrenty, be ready to buy a USED battery pack for 5-10k when it does eventually fail. Unless you have a luxury class, then it'll be ~20k for the pack. Keep in mind if the EV is old and used enough, you'll have to replace the motor, Inverter, and pack because that's just a pesky con of electrical design, can't match new hardware with old wornout hardware as these EVs require proper load matching to work. But it's ok, as I'm sure your already saving up for your next New EV as that's way the market will be in the future. No one will buy a USED EV without a warrenty. Same reason I trade them in every 2 years or so. Can't be liable for those kind of repairs. That's not smart.
It'll be nice too for ICE vehicles. Since we can't produce plastics and rubbers without making light fuels like gasoline. The prices will drop below electric and it'll be nice, as in 15 years, most used ICE vehicles will be exempt from emission standards, and with an overproduction of fuel making it cheap? Yes please, buy up them EVs.
I hear you. At my last major service visit to the dealership ($1,100 for SCHEDULED maintenance) I chatted up the Service Advisors, asked them what THEY drive. Understand, I drive a Subaru Outback; service guys LOVE their Subaru vehicles, like I do, and for the same reason: Subaru is run by engineers, not Sales (Toyota, Ford) or Finance (GM). Subaru owners are intensely loyal.
Two of the three Service Adivisors on duty PLUS the Service Manager, all drive Teslas. They're pretty sure the rest of the Service team will switch to Tesla before the end of 2024. Said quietly though. I asked "Don't you guys need the ICE service business to survive to keep your jobs? None of them is convinced Subaru's business will survive - or that its dealers all will, if it does.
I asked my Sales Rep whether he's seeing a trend in the last two years, of Subaru owners switching to another brand. Off the record, yes: Tesla, without fail. Nowhere else.
I would love to see Subaru survive; hope it does. But our next vehicle (after 3 Subies in a row) won't be a Subaru. Unless there's major improvement in other brands it'll almost certainly be a Tesla.
The entire ICE vehicle industry is being disrupted. It's anyone's guess who will survive, if any.
@@michaelmcnally2331so are you claiming as some kind of Genius that you figured out how to do away with oil changes, transmission fluid changes, differential fluid changes, coolant changes, Spark plugs, tune-ups, etcetera. Or are you just skipping all those things and hoping the car doesn't break?
What will they do with the tesla sport car coming......2027.
Lower demand making higher price? I don't understand. Lower demand should making the price cheaper, i think.
I’m wondering what will be the fate of Formula 1.
Fuel engines in motorsports maybe the exceptions.
I would rather just not own a car if my only option was an EV.
With the high price of cars these days I will probably still have my old ICE car in 2032. It will be 45 years old.
Not if you live in the rust belt.
Audi here in America definitely sits behind Mercedes, BMW and Porsche as far as brand cache.
Above VW
Using more Chinese parts will hurt overall quality that Audi owners demand
I think your thumbnail is wrong.
Here in the UK the infrastructure is inadequate and the government ( of either party ) does not have enough money to A) continue to subsidise EV's and B) the National Grid cannot cope with an extra 100,000 plus EV' s needing to charge their batteries at different times of the day.
EV sales in the UK are about 23% down on last year and it is mainly fleet companies who are the main buyers of EV's however they should learn from Hertz in the USA who are dumping 1000's of Tesla's on the market because no one wants to hire them.
No problem here in California. Chargers everywhere and tesla is the #1 selling car in California and the world ⚡️🇺🇲
It's not a problem at all. EVs charge at night. If the grid can cope with everyone cooking Christmas lunch at the same time, it can cope with charging a few cars at night.
UK National Grid needs EVs to balance it as renewables increase. Do your homework.
@@davidlloyd1526to hit uk govt de carbon plans then the people running the national grid stated that need £58 billion between 2030 and 2035. This on top of £54billion between now and 2030.
Expect that figure to balloon once NIMBY start insisting the grid is installed underground rather then pylons.
ESO published in March and BBC article on the 19th March. Note these are the people that run and operate the grid.
@@davidlloyd1526
Where is your evidence that EV's only charge at night time?
ICE vehicles are struggling due to diseconomies of scale, while EV's are experiencing economies of scale.
It's obvious where this is going.
Audi's EV sales are doing well in the U.S., while Audi non-EV sales are struggling.
Assumptions can be the mother of all fuck-ups.
I think by next year there will be some real significant models which will seriously bring down the lowest priced models made in USA, including Tesla model 2, as well as VinFast, with the prices possibly at or below $25,000 for Tesla, and maybe below $20,000 for the VinFast.
Not sure whether the EV tax credits will continue if Trump wins, we’ll have to see. 😎
These will be HUGELY popular. Even cheaper if the tax credits for USA built continue, can’t imagine why that would not because both cars will be made in USA.
All new car (ICE & EV) sales are at collapse level in USA. The virus-shortage playbook backfiring now. Ppl are priced out of new cars, interest rate & upside down trade-in. So-called luxury ICE, jacked up F150s are rusting away at dealer's lot.
2010 GT500 guy here...sucks gas like crazy...makes a lot of noise...gotta love it...Go ICE
LOL
Audis are beloved in America .. true bmw and Mercedes are more common but Audi fans are dedicated and Audi is perceived to be a premium brand often more premium than bmw to be honest
All premium brands, that turn into giant money pits as soon as they reach 100k mls. Apart from the depreciation, pure horror.
This is from Germany: "Battery-electric car registrations decreased by 15% year-over-year to 27,479, taking 12.6% of the market (compared to 15.7% a year ago and 14.1% two years ago). "
And?
@@ronin4580 For the moment it seams that the demand for EVs in Germany is decreasing.
But don't worry in 2 years the BEV the market share will increase from 10% to 90%!
Did they cancel incentives or something?
@@flirek Germany is the biggest market in EU.
Germany is the a very example of what happens if ICE compete with BEV without government incentives.
Next step must be the elimination of the mandates for the companies to sell a certain percentage of EVs.
I think that the EVs are the future but I think the technology isn't mature enough.
@@juliahello6673 For EVs.
Audi's CEO is smart to make the EV commitment and not waffle with "give customers their choices" like GM or Toyota. I don't think we (in "Western" economies) have yet to wrap our heads around China's billion+ consumers power and growing trade surpluses. While there's still political risk, all industries will need to compete in the future global marketplace or disappear. Germany also needs to decouple its dependency on foreign (Russian, and now US) fossil fuels. Hollywood, the music industry, NBA have all tailored their "products" to make them acceptable in China. Legacy global manufacturing companies will need exports to China to survive.
It's already crashing, because they produce overpriced crap cars. Lots of cheap bling bling plastic. Posh cars that fall apart within a couple of years, etc.
Putting a legacy badge on chinese evs is not going to keep the brand alive. Not when Tesla is making quality cars from the ground up.
Since when? Tesla is regularly measured at the bottom of the quality barrel. And the Chinese made ones are the worst.
@@billcichoke2534Chinese made EVs are the best quality Tesla or BYD
@i6power30 Wow...really? Not according to anyone outside the CCP or the Tesla cult.
@@i6power30 lol, sure...Chinah Numbah hwon!...
I agree, putting your badge on something with lower quality that loses money will not work. Chinese EVs don’t make any money, margins are negative and no way to make up revenue on the service side as EVs are very reliable.
EV demand will plateau also.
Also way to go Audi love this direction!
Wishful thinking from Audi
No body I know want one
Deiss should sue their asses
Hello mate
My prediction for EV car share by 2030.
China: 75%+
US: 9%
UK: 17%
EU: 21-25%
South Korea: 60%
Japan: 29%
The US is going to be a huge outlier i feel.
Not when by 2030 the average ICE car price will be $100,000 and the average EV will be $50k
This your 1st ever prediction? Looks like it. Try research first next time. If you don't know what research is Google it
So TESLA will not increase its car sales in the USA for 6 years? Unlikely at best. Probably ridiculous.
You are missing most of the growing car market on the Asian continent, the African continent, of Slavic countries, of South and Central America as well as Mexico.
Cannot say what will happen to Korea...but China's market is also a growing one...not stagnating like the US, EU, UK and Japan. Since there will be way more cars overall in 2030 even 50% in 2030 will be more than if China would now have 75% BEV car share.
I disagree about Japan. Japan will be the worst EV adoption possibly even lagging behind the US
I think legacy autos will be making phevs in order to survive and not be outcompeted by Tesla and BYD
No way. BYD hybrid is better than Toyota's hybrid, much quieter,, much smoother, same fuel efficiency with a way bigger battery up to 100 miles. Toyota hybrid only has a few miles battery range.
@@mingouczjcz3800agreed but you can't buy BYD in North America. Toyota is all we got.
Why EVs need incentives?
2032 means 6 years of losses for Audi by their own calculations.
ICE won't collapse slowly. When the S curve truly takes effect after sales hit 20%, then the collapse will be very very rapid - like within 2 years to virtually zero sales.
Audi's EV sales in Europe were up around 30% in 2023 on 2022, so they are moving in the right direction.
Yeay, but they didn't sell much in 2022 right?
@@stefan2796 About 76,000, more than Kia, less than BMW
Wonder how much they're going to lose per car? 😂😂
EVS are a fad thats run its course. ICE cars are the best. Long live ICE and fossil fuels.
How did you post your comment on TH-cam using a vintage typewriter is what I’m wondering. 🤔
They won't be around by 2030 thankfully. And another one gone. WOOT! Eat the rich, make a better world.
Just google joe rogan cobalt then take your EV back for a full refund.
You know every time you shower you cover yourself in metal and chlorine?
Mini Cooper small EV´s please. Well built, comfortable and crazy long range. Monster size vehicles a bad idea in so many ways. Go metric , Go vegan !
Bit backwards...Africa in 2050
Let's see how the legacy auto countries will handle the decline of their car industries - which won't be a gradual but a sharp one.
Let's see how the INDUSTRY goes if people continue to buy older used ICEVs, and ALL new vehicles sit unsold...ESPECIALLY EVs.
Governments have rolled ICEV bans back because they see it happening.
@@billcichoke2534 That scenario seems a very realistic one. Already seeing some movements in that direction.
Well Audi is obviously very stupid
It’s only a matter of time before gas engines will be perceived as old school. It’s already slowly happening! Also, people will start to wonder what ICE vehicles will be worth in 5 years when they pay them off! It’s something to think about. If you have a certain car that will hold its value like a Hellcat or 911, you will be fine, but what about buying a Nissan Altima for example. What is that worth in 2029/30? I’m jumping in and going full electric for my next vehicle!
...lol, I guess you haven't researched the depreciation curve of EV's...you might want to take a look...
@@puzer1 It looks exactly the same as the depreciation curve of any new car. What am I meant to be looking for?
@@davidlloyd1526Exactly my findings. It’s part of the FUD propagated by the ICE dinosaurs.
@@davidlloyd1526...lol, think again..." Electric vehicles aren't holding their value like other cars.
A recent study of 5-year depreciation rates by iSeeCars found that the small group of EVs that have been on the market for at least five years have the worst depreciation across all major vehicle types."
In 5 years time if you still have a mainstream ICE it will be a stranded asset & worth nothing. Only specialist/performance models will still have value.
Re: Tesla 10% layoffs. You may lose your bet. 2017 Tesla laid off 5%, 2019 Tesla laid off 5%, 2022 Tesla laid off 10%. There's no doubt to me that they will lay off another 10%. Elon is obsessed with cutting fat. I think his definition of fat is anyone not willing to work 12 hours a day.
If you are German, you have a global reputation for being smart, great engineers and generally rational. (Full disclosure: I am not German, have no German friends and no German ancestry and can't verify this reputation except anecdotally).
So ... doing what's best for GERMANY, you want to move away from OIL (Germany has coal -8th in the world, but NOT oil - 57th in the world) as an energy source of any kind. ETHIOPIA appears to have figured this out, pretty sure Germany can too. You trusted the Russians OK, Poo-tin ... and look where THAT got you.
Wind, solar, batteries or OTHER storage medium, EVs, heat pumps. Done right, most of that can be made in Germany and means you're not shipping tons of money to Russia, various Arab states or the US. Switching might be painful, but the future is brighter once you do.
Coal can be a feedstock for chemical processes instead of oil, especially if you have cheap energy. Overbuild of variable renewables PLUS thermal storage to avoid curtailment will make that work if Germans are smart enough to manage it.
Not true as the EV market in EU has just collapsed
LOL. Keep taking the copium.
It was just reported that EV sales were down 30% off 72,000 cars for the first quarter
New EV sales consist for a very large part (90-95%) of business lease contracts. Those type of sales are indeed dropping like a stone. And the second hand market is flooded by EVs that are about 4-5 years old now, with lower ranges. Like 300-350km max, instead of the current 450-550km. Consumers don't want them.
BS
Reported by Autoline it’s just facts
Building EV's and Combustion engines is like burning money
Hybrids are beating EV's in America.
ICE RIP
Not in the next decade or so.
@@stefan2796 Agreed, and a lot longer than that, but not as the mainstream.
The social problem is the working poor will be fckd unless you can buy a used EV for $4k. When my wife was single & 25 she bought a v used Datsun for $200 and drove it for 2 years
No one wants EV.,. Why does government force us to do this?
Higher insurance, more tire wear….my apt bldg won’t have chargers. And there isn’t the power available…
This CEO is delusional when EV sales are collapsing in Europe and the US as customers see the bad points such as lack of public chargers( if they’re working), maybe ten other EV’s in front of them in a queue, shorter range than advertised depending on weather conditions and many homeowners who don’t have a charger point in their apartment block. Other points include the ever increasing price at the charging points that make it more expensive than buying petrol, and now, higher insurance premiums for EV’s if you can find a firm that will actually give a policy to EV owners as many of them refuse to now especially on the upmarket models. If an EV has even a very minor accident or scrape it HAS to have a very long, thorough inspection to make sure that a battery cell hasn’t been damaged and this is leading to higher insurance prices for everyone !
In the US Ford and GM have postponed their plans to build new EV production plants as their dealers have thousands of new EV’s gathering dust on their lots because no one wants them now and similar, now, in Europe to a lesser extent. This Audi CEO is so wrong that he should fall on his sword when his predictions prove to be completely wrong !
You willing to do the same with all your fud and disinformation when it blows up?
Hopefully this does not mean that you expect to fall on your own sword when your predictions are falsified, which is right around the corner. You really should read Tony Seba. He's way ahead of you, way way way way ahead.
If you follow this guy probaly everything he says is wrong
Is that comment directed at yourself?
holden, holden. holde...
Just curious; do you only have one shirt? I watch a lot of your stuff as I love new cars and tech. I’m very much interested in electric and hybrid cars in particular. Is it your lucky shirt or for brand recognition?
The latter one. He started off with different shirts. But people didn't recognise him (from the tumbnail). With the same shirt on, the number of subscribers and the number of views more or less exploded.