HOW TO CALCULATE INTRINSIC VALUE TUTORIAL : FREE CALCULATOR - Calculate Intrinsic Value of ANYTHING

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 ก.ย. 2024
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    If you are new, welcome to my channel. My video’s are about investments that anyone in the world can make.
    And today I’m going to go through, with examples, how to calculate intrinsic value of ANYTHING!
    I’ll give an example of a company on the stock market and I’ll also give an example of how to value a totally different asset as well with the intrinsic value calculator.
    Look, I think this is going to be my most important video that I ever make because finding a good price to buy an investment makes a huge difference to your success as an investor.
    To follow along I highly recommend downloading my free intrinsic value calculator in the description. You will get an email with the calculator. It’s totally free.
    Now I built this calculator so it isn’t the most beautiful thing, but it works beautifully.
    What we are trying to do to find intrinsic value is predict how much money the asset is going to return to us over the next 20 years. Then discount it back to present day. That’s the whole purpose of investing. To get money back from the asset.
    As Warren Buffet would say, “the game of investing is to put money out and to get more money back later.”
    A good asset is a good asset right?
    Well, not exactly, We want to be as close to right about our investment as possible, so we need to have what is called, a Margin of Safety.
    A margin of safety is the difference between what we think the asset is worth, and what we actually pay for it.
    For example, let’s say we calculate the intrinsic value of Apple stock is worth $300. But the stock price is $200, well the difference is 33% and that is our margin of safety.
    So why do we need a margin of safety?
    Well the margin of safety is our cushion for some unknown events in the future, maybe a factory burns down, maybe they get some negative publicity, or most likely we are a little out with our growth estimates.
    And the bigger margin of safety we have, the more money we could potentially make with lower our risk.
    Now this is another area where everyone’s opinions are different.
    Remember the link in the description to get an email from me with this exact calculator and it is totally free, all I ask is to subscribe to my channel, This will help me grow and then I can make more video’s.
    Also, Just save a copy of the calculator somewhere safe so if you mess up the formula’s you still have a copy.
    Now also remember that it is still as important to check the financials of the investment in detail and really understand the investment before finding the intrinsic value and a good price to pay.
    I really hope you got something out of this video today.
    See you next time.
    Don't forget to subscribe to see be notified of my new video's!
    Good idea to watch some other how to find intrinsic value methods, I agree with these styles if that appeals to you more than my version. My version works perfectly well but these are just some other options.
    Search on TH-cam for these titles.
    How to Calculate Intrinsic Value (Apple Stock Example)
    How to Find the Intrinsic Value of a Stock! [2019]
    35. Warren Buffett DCF Intrinsic Value Calculator
    21. Warren Buffett Intrinsic Value Calculation - Rule 4

ความคิดเห็น • 139

  • @StockInvestmentAnalysis
    @StockInvestmentAnalysis 4 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Nice intro! You had me at free, and I just signed up. I'm watching now, and I love the education!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      hahah thanks a lot. yeah that calculator took me a while to get right. Did you have any issues accessing it?

    • @StockInvestmentAnalysis
      @StockInvestmentAnalysis 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting not yet! It's going smooth so far. I like your facial expression on that tutorial thumbnail too haha.

  • @justinnothling5798
    @justinnothling5798 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Dude, this is AMAZING!!!! This calculator and tutorial is going to help me so much. SO cool

  • @louisecroft1423
    @louisecroft1423 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Mind blown 🤯 Can't wait to test this out

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks, maybe ask someone with a good maths brain to help you if you need a better explanation to mine. I'm sure you know someone

  • @edmoyse
    @edmoyse 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    I've been thinking about getting into intrinsic value investing, so will be downloading the spreadsheet for sure!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Great, you will understand the math. I should have asked you to help me explain it in a more simple way. Especially the margin of safety (ROI) part.

  • @LXADDO
    @LXADDO 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Great work AB - thanks!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      :) Make sure to get the updated version where I include cash and debt!!! :)

  • @michellesimpson381
    @michellesimpson381 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Nicely explained! I was thinking about intrinsic value investing, but to be honest it seems to me much more complicated. Your tutorial will be a much needed help! Great!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Glad it was helpful! I appreciate the comment a lot. Any questions, let me know :)

  • @JoseRojasYT
    @JoseRojasYT 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    This is so helpful Andrew! Many people do not know the difference between INTRINSIC and EXTRINSIC value. you broke this down very clear. 👍

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks, i'm very appreciative of your comment. Hope it helps you in same way as well

  • @jjpeterson1880
    @jjpeterson1880 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    All of your videos are so fresh and interesting! I will be checking out this calculator...Thanks.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Glad it was helpful! appreciate the comment a lot. thanks

  • @woawoa3610
    @woawoa3610 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I love all different kind of plants! Never seen 🌴palm tree in door.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Haha thanks a lot! I'm glad someone liked the background 😂

  • @joeyjoejoe172
    @joeyjoejoe172 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you..quarantine is finally paying off for me...

  • @ashtonsmith2473
    @ashtonsmith2473 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    One to rewatch again. Thank you Andrew

  • @user-em4ci1px7g
    @user-em4ci1px7g 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thank you so much for sharing ur calculator and information. I just started learning stock market and your video is very informative.!!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      I'm just glad you liked it. Thanks for the really nice comment ☺️

  • @charliecharlie6387
    @charliecharlie6387 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thank you Andrew for this awesome calculator. It's a WOW!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      I'm glad you like it. Doesn't look fancy, but it works 😅

    • @charliecharlie6387
      @charliecharlie6387 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting It's easy to use, you walk us thru it step by step. Again...THANK YOU for the time you put into this and for sharing it with us! :)

  • @Michael.design
    @Michael.design 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    One of the clearer videos out there on intrinsic value! Thanks a lot! What I'm wondering though, can I use the calculator also for lets say 5 years? Would that result in the same price per share or why would it deviate? If I'm correct, applying it to the example in the video it would result in $64.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks for the kind words. So you would have to play with the formulas.. I haven't done this before so I would have to think about it. Sorry I couldn't give you a better answer

  • @Lozmyster999
    @Lozmyster999 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks for the spreadsheet. It's great!

  • @bobaker6489
    @bobaker6489 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Amazing video! I learned a new thing that will come handy in the future!

  • @ksenianikolaeva1501
    @ksenianikolaeva1501 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks for all details! Very good video!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Glad it was helpful! I appreciate the comment a lot. Any questions, let me know :)

  • @janegreen8579
    @janegreen8579 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Signed up! Thank you for the great tutorial.

  • @dariapugacheva143
    @dariapugacheva143 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    thank you for this video!!

  •  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks Andrew, another great one, it would be great if you could explain more into detail how and why works, a little back testing and the theory behind, what multiple do you choose P/FCF, PE? How do you choose the ROI, I didn't get how you apply your margin of safety there?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I apologise for the poor explanation in the video. Let me try again.
      Multiple - P/FCF or PE, honestly, its not a big deal. We are trying to get a ballpark figure. Better to use an average p/fcf for the company but an average P/E is fine as well. Phil Town would say to double the growth rate, but I think that can be too high sometimes. So i prefer to find an average PE or P/FCF, reluctantly going above 20.
      ROI - so if you were to use 10% in my calculator, that would give you a fair price. To include a margin of safety, I use 20% as a starting point and 22% to get a more serious buy price. If I aim for 22%, then even if I am mostly wrong with my growth assumptions, then I should still get 15%. That wouldn't be too bad. That is how I include a margin of safety.
      Hope that helps a little. Again, sorry for the poor explanation. It isn't the easiest thing to explain

    •  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting thanks for taking the time to reply its clearer now, a new video going deep into this I think would be helpful

  • @NaaJeevitham500
    @NaaJeevitham500 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hi Andrew, I have a situation here. I hope you have a solution for it. For example I found intrinsic value of a company. Then I have put limit order and forget about it until it hits. That is one way to buy it at the price I want without checking the market everyday. But my worry is that, what if it falls because there is a change in fundamentals/business. It might hit my limit price but by then its fundamentals have also changed.
    For example recently Biogen had fallen. I dont know full story but it has something to do with their alzemeir drug.
    The thing I want to understand is do we have to check market everyday and follow company updates everyday? What strategies you follow? Did you already make any video regarding this?
    My goal is not to check market everyday and follow company updates everyday.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi, good question. So it's about how much research you have done and your confidence. Definitely don't check the market everyday, I make an effort to read earnings reports each quarter and read what the ceo says. I have a thesis for each investment and a plan. Even I check prices too much.
      You have to work this out yourself, but some of the best investing advice is to literally forget about the investment. It is called the 'coffee can' approach. Imagine buying shares in the companies that you are very confident in the long term. Imagine putting those shares in a coffee can and hiding it under your bed. One day you will move house and open the coffee can and see what the shares are worth. With biogen, they are going to have short term issues but is the company going to be better or worse in 10 years? Most likely better. Holding on is the key. So I recommend something as close to this as possible.

  • @Kig_Ama
    @Kig_Ama 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    9:20 Does Morningstar also provide forecats of free cash flows or better say free cash flow estimates for the future?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi, not really... They do a Trailing 12 months free cash flow number which is very helpful, as it would include the most recent quarter. This will be very helpful when analysing companies after Q2 results are out. Another way to look at future growth rates, is take the historical average of free cash flow for say the past 5-10 years, calculate an average year on year growth rate, and if the company is solid and consistent, you can extrapolate that out over the next 5 years as a ball park. For example, Berkshire has been growing relative consistently at 20%, but as they get bigger, that might not be able to keep up with that, so 15% is pretty safe. Since they show such good stable performance. Hope that helps. Any more questions?

    • @Kig_Ama
      @Kig_Ama 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting helps a lot, ty. Keep up the great work.

  • @valuepirates1975
    @valuepirates1975 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hey, on Mohnish Pabrai's website (Chai with Pabrai) , if you click "Articles", "Intrinsic Value - Chapter 25 , Mosaic - July 1, 2001", he values Microsoft using this exact method. He makes one exception though. He adds the current book value of Microsoft to it's intrinsic value. I noticed you don't do this. Do you think you should add the book value (assets minus liabilities), or some portion of it, say 50-80% onto the intrinsic value of your future cash flows? I've noticed when I add the book value of some companies to intrinsic value, my buy price is double the current stock price even with very little growth.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Great question, so I have actually updated my calculator since this video to include debt and cash into the calculation. I think it is important. I think that makes a better valuation tool as well. Good comment, thanks. Mohnish pabrai is my hero

    • @valuepirates1975
      @valuepirates1975 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting Mohnish Pabrai is the man! I think you don't need to include debt and cash into it, you only need to include the net assets - the extraneous assets the investor could sell without impairing the operation of the business (after paying off all the debts). I tried to download your valuation template and it didn't work - I checked spam and tried two different emails. Can you manually send it if you see my name in Mailchimp?

  • @NaaJeevitham500
    @NaaJeevitham500 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hi Andrew, I want to ask a favor. It is about a company called UPL in India. From Yahoo Finance, I got its next 5-year growth rate as 19.23%, Free cash flow 67,590,000,000 (67,590 M), and shares outstanding 764.04 M. I gave the rest of every other detail as in your video. Then the calculator is showing the buy price as ₹1161.13. Ignore the currency type. now the stock is trading at ₹ 433.40. Did I do every calculation correct?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Yes that looks correct. But I think you need to triple check that free cash flow number and the shares outstanding. Make sure those numbers are 100% correct. Find more sources that report these numbers

  • @dariapugacheva143
    @dariapugacheva143 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    haha can feel your true love to Tesla company))))

  • @joeyjoejoe172
    @joeyjoejoe172 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    one more question..in usng this calculator if the stock price is higher than the price i get from your calculator then the stock is overvalued?

  • @AlphaHybridPlus
    @AlphaHybridPlus 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hey Andrew, I just tried out your calculator and figured I'd ask you a few questions:
    1. I noticed that Total Cash and Total Debt have been added to the equation in order to calculate EV. Your Fair Enterprise Value equation treats sum of "PV" - I don't know what this stands for but looks like they are discounted cash flow - as "market cap". I just can't wrap my head around this. Is this fair?
    2. what is "I want to buy it at" exactly referring to? I think the calculator only gives you a buy price of a stock but how do I find out the "target" price or the actual fair value? For example, let's say the "I want to buy it at" price comes out to be $2.00, and I buy the stock at this price. What would be my sell price? I'm referring this sell price to "fair value" because as a value investor, I should be holding the stock until the price reaches the fair value. I'm just struggling to understand a bit. Your help would be much appreciated.
    Regards,

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Sorry for all the confusion. It is not easy to explain. PV means present value.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      To find actual fair value, use 8% as the ROI goal. That is about the average of the s&p500. That will give you a fair value price. Then I change the roi to 20 to get a buy price.

    • @AlphaHybridPlus
      @AlphaHybridPlus 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting Thank you for the response. Don't be sorry for the wisdom and knowledge you are sharing for free. I do appreciate for everything you do. So the difference in 8% and 20% should give you a some degree of "margin of safety", would that be 50%?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@AlphaHybridPlus yes, its not exact 50% margin of safety but it works about the same. you could always just get the buy price that was given when you used 8% and then just half it. play around with it as you want

  • @GiggleGangGuru
    @GiggleGangGuru 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    bro what is formula between discount rate vs Margin of safety ?

  • @mattgio3401
    @mattgio3401 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hey that's a great video and just the sort of thing I was looking for! Thank you very much! Just wondering if you can help explain the ROI a but better... what do you think is the ratio for ROI/Margin of safety? What is the ratio if I put down 10%, or 20% or 30% etc.? I've subscribed and started watching some of your other videos! Priceless content, keep it up man!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Glad you enjoyed it. So, 10% is about fair value, so that's no margin of safety. Now after that it's a bit more complicated... Roughly 20% is not far from 50% margin of safety. 30% is about 70% margin of safety. I am now aiming for 30% ROI because my goal is to get somewhere between 20%-30%pa returns. So I aim for 30%

    • @mattgio3401
      @mattgio3401 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting Brilliant thank you, that makes more sense. Another question I had (and it may sound dumb but still worth the ask). The copy I got from you must have been update and has an additional 2 rows with "Total Cash" and "Total Debt", is that just a comparison between the total assets on the balance sheet against the total liabilities? Thank you.

  • @harjindersekhon
    @harjindersekhon 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hi Andrew, clicked twice- did not get the calculator not even spam folder

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      🤔 send me a message on Twitter with your email address. I'll email it to you

  • @HealthWealthHappinessBrendan
    @HealthWealthHappinessBrendan 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Nice background, it looks good! I like the bull analogy you said, that makes sense. Great explanation, you made it very easy to follow.
    My only issue is you're relying on analyst estimates for growth rates. You did reduce their estimates a little, but in my experience, analysts are often very wrong. How long have you been using this calculator? Have you compared your analysis to how companies actually performed? Thanks for sharing!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Firstly, i appreciate your comment a lot. I am happy I can talk to people about this stuff now, my friends find it boring haha. Let me pad this comment by saying, it's only a simple calculator and I fully agree with your point about the analysts estimations. I actually should have included that I think best practise is to compare yahoo finance with simply wall st and with the companies estimations in the annual reports. Then try to get a feel from the different sources. I simplified this so people can get a solid ball park. But I agree that it is far from perfect. No analysts predicted an event like the one we are experiencing across the world right now, so 6 months ago the analysts estimations were far different. So I think its all about trying to get close to right as possible, but hopefully not completely wrong. How do you estimate growth rates?

    • @HealthWealthHappinessBrendan
      @HealthWealthHappinessBrendan 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting That makes sense. I appreciate you taking the time to explain that to me. Personally I don't try to forecast growth rates in the stock market. I prefer factor based investing. But I enjoy hearing how other people invest and their strategies.

  • @joelturner9285
    @joelturner9285 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Good to see you're broadcasting from a jungle mate. A lot of information but I think I followed! Very informative 🤟

    • @joelturner9285
      @joelturner9285 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      The royalty stuff is pretty cool. Didnt know you could buy into that.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      I made a whole video on buying music royalties, you will like it :)

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      haha i'm glad you liked the scenery, thats the local bar near my place.

  • @liumax8223
    @liumax8223 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks it is quite useful video. But I can not receive the calculator from the link you shared above. How can I get it? Many thanks!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      So strange, I apologise.. try a different video of mine and click the link in description. If that does not work, I'll try another way

    • @liumax8223
      @liumax8223 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting got it finally, thank a lot!

    • @leffe7990
      @leffe7990 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@liumax8223 How did u get it?

  • @joeyjoejoe172
    @joeyjoejoe172 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    If you get a chance may you tell me why when using your calculator for MET i get the first target at 186.28 yet it s trading at 47.45...did i do something wrong ?..thanks

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi, good question. So it's because it is an insurance company and free cash flow doesn't quite work the same as another company like amazon. So for insurance companies, look at the price to book value. Anything under 1 is a good price. Anything under 0.5 is fantastic. (Prudential for example)

    • @joeyjoejoe172
      @joeyjoejoe172 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting thank you for taking the time to answer..

  • @richardgreenup3808
    @richardgreenup3808 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Yessss

  • @BenJune09
    @BenJune09 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks so much for the spreadsheet Sir! I'm new to investing...per your instruction, how do you keep this spreadsheet in millions and billions? Can you please given an example of the format so I can be sure the calculations are correct? In the Vid 347 million was annotated as simply 347...what would 3.47 billion and 347 billion be to keep the right format? Thanks in advance!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Glad you are enjoying, and great question.
      Ok, so if shares outstanding is 4.87 billion, and free cash flow is 347 Million. I would use shares outstanding to be 4870 and free cash flow to be 347.
      3.47 Billion in millions would look like 3470.
      347 Billion in millions would look like 347000.
      So if you start in millions, you have to turn everything into millions.
      Hope that helps

    • @BenJune09
      @BenJune09 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting Thank you my friend...

  • @seksiama
    @seksiama 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    what if analysts are negative? I tried do Euronav but expected growtrate was minus -13 %

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Calculator should still give a fair value even with negative growth rates. But be very careful with analysts growth rates, its a starting point but not likely to be correct at all. Especially in the tankers, it's about as likely the analysts will be right as you winning at the casino....

  • @APC-pm2on
    @APC-pm2on 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Stupid question but... What after doing all this beautiful math, you find none of the stocks come down to what your willing to pay? Do you just continue and search for another stock? Thanks for the video 👍

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      not s stupid question at all, I find good companies that I really want to invest in but my calculator tells me I shouldn't until a certain price. So yes, i just have to keep looking. Honestly, besides the last month or so, I haven't been able to buy anything for more than a year. Nothing was at a price I wanted to pay. But, with the market pulling back in early April I was able to get the prices I wanted. So it's a waiting game. I build a list of companies that I really like and would happily invest in if the price got to my level. Then I just wait and keep looking for more companies to add to my list. One day (like early April) some of these companies fall into my range and I buy them. So a lot of sitting on the sidelines, waiting to pounce. Did that answer your question?

    • @APC-pm2on
      @APC-pm2on 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting that makes sense. So your advice for noob like me is do your homework now, wait for the coming recession to kick in and then buy all out like a boss!! Great videos btw..surprised you don't have more subscribers, people need to learn from you!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks a lot, hopefully I can grow the channel. I am enjoying making these videos a lot so I'm happy. My advice is to build a list of companies that you really would feel safe investing in, then create a watchlist on an app like Yahoo finance, once a week I check my buy prices against the current market price and see if anything is getting close. But my list is not very big, it's only about 10-15 companies that are worthy, I am looking for more. Then each 3 month report from the company, I check to see if anything dramatic has changed, otherwise they stay on the list. Each year I readjust my buy prices based on the new data. Does that make sense?

  • @lukecarlson1566
    @lukecarlson1566 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Good afternoon Andrew,
    I have really been enjoying this calculator, so thank you! I was just using it to determine a buy price for BYND, and when I use checked Yahoo Finance for the predicted growth rates it was showing -224 for the next five years. This brought my buy price close to $14 which doesn't seem plausible. How would you adjust the inputs if certain figures seem far fetched. Do you use any other sites for those numbers to get second opinions?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      It's really tough on companies like this. Try your best to see the historical growth rates and try to make some assumptions yourself. Also look at the detailed estimates of eps for next 5 years on the zacks website. Hope that helps ☺️

    • @lukecarlson1566
      @lukecarlson1566 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting Thanks for getting back so soon! Yeah I noticed that with newer/more speculative companies which sometimes have those negative numbers it can really throw off the calculator. At any rate, thanks for the notes! I really appreciate it.
      Cheers

  • @dvgsusilo
    @dvgsusilo 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    You use (Growth Rate 1st-5th Year) only 4 times and (Growth rate 6-10th Year) 5times?
    => shouldn't cell G4 state the formule "= B8+(B4*B8)" instead of "=B8" after the first year you already gained your first 9% growth...
    => end calculation shows another result..if you only use 4times 9% growth and 5times 8% versus 5times 9% and 5times 8%.. :)

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Yep you are right, so i guess my calculator just works out the next 9 years. Still should give us intrinsic value. Whether it is 9 years or 10 years, it doesn't matter i don't think. Or am I wrong?

  • @mcsibs
    @mcsibs 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Have you thought about partnering with a programmer to do this for the entire market? Maybe it's already been done (shrug). Would be a bit of a tall order, but it doesn't seem like a range of data that a server couldn't handle. Make a sort by Current Price/IV button save yourself years of research time... maybe even have something to sell a subscription to

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      My friend was talking to me about this just the other day. There are screening tools out there that exist, which filter out a lot of stuff already. But maybe there is something here. Thanks for the tip :)

  • @xkeydog
    @xkeydog 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Hi Andrew, where you consider interest rate to calculate present value in your formulas?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Are you talking about the 10 year US government bond rate?

  • @takeovergaming7776
    @takeovergaming7776 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    HI Andrew i send the email 3 times did not get the calculator not even spam folder thank you

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hit me up on twitter with your email, i'll get it to you

  • @danielgoldschmidt2015
    @danielgoldschmidt2015 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Didn’t you forget to ad cash and subtract debt ?

  • @maxpontoppidan6220
    @maxpontoppidan6220 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Can the calculator be used even if the OCF - CapEx is negative? Great video!

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Great question and the answer is no. Negative free cash flow isn't going to work. So very difficult to value the investment. Honestly, I don't want to invest in companies that have negative free cash flow.

  • @NaaJeevitham500
    @NaaJeevitham500 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Is this method itself called as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method?

  • @44jaymoney
    @44jaymoney 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Can you do a video on Stock ticker Ocft?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi, thanks for the suggestion, but this company is a speculative company without positive earnings. So it's not the investment that I am looking for. Why do you like this company?

  • @axaxw
    @axaxw 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    thankS for sharing the calculator! I applied it to tesla, but the result came out still above 1k/share, is it because it's 5 year growth estimate is 280%+? btw, see you live in Georgia, when to back country this March , had great time there. cheers mate.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi, great question. Yes, exactly. That growth is crazy. I think it is not a good idea to use the intrinsic value calculator on a company where the growth rate is extreme. It's too hard to predict the future growth rate. Whereas something like BRK.B is far easier. I know it's not perfect, but predicting Tesla is nearly impossible. Yes, I live in Georgia. Currently in the mountains in Gudauri. Beautiful part of the world. Glad you have visited before. Let me know if you ever return :)

    • @axaxw
      @axaxw 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting Thanks for the feedback. it is very contradictory. Its TTM net income is still negative. I was in Svaneti; it didn't receive enough snow as usual due to the global warming, but we managed to find some good snow in Ushguli. Definitely will drop you a line if I return for next season. thanks again. cheers

  • @alessandrocabiati6409
    @alessandrocabiati6409 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What's the math on the Margin of safety ?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Hi, bit hard to explain in a comment. But here is my attempt. If you play around with the calculator, you will notice if you use 20% as the discount rate, it is about the same finding the intrinsic value and halving it. 20% is what I want to get back from my investments each year, but Phil Town would just get the Intrinsic Value and take 50% off this number. It works out about the same. So a 20% discount rate is similar to a 50% margin of safety. (hope that makes sense)

    • @alessandrocabiati6409
      @alessandrocabiati6409 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      ​@@AndrewBrownInvesting yes I' ve read Phil Town's Rule1 book . Oh i see, using a 8.5% Discount rate i get the intrinsic value and when using a 20% Discount rate i can see that I get about a half of that. And that's giving me a 50% margin of safety if i want my return to be 8.5% pe year. Is that correct? But let's say i want a 15% return on investment each year and want a margin of safety of 50%, then the number i'd have tu put in the calculator for My Roi Goal is 35%? Thanks for taking the time :)

    • @alessandrocabiati6409
      @alessandrocabiati6409 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      *for My ROI Goal is 25%?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@alessandrocabiati6409 you want 25% roi, and a 50% margin of safety? I want that too, sounds great

  • @takeovergaming7776
    @takeovergaming7776 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Hi i was wondering what else do i have to do to get the calculator thank you

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi, sorry for the issues. Send me your email, i'll send you a copy. If you can't write your email here in youtube comments, find me on twitter and send me a message. My twitter name is in my description of the video.

    • @takeovergaming7776
      @takeovergaming7776 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting ok thank you my email is jjsmith448@yahoo.com thank you

    • @takeovergaming7776
      @takeovergaming7776 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      how do you send a message to someone that is not following you on twitter

  • @sachastayswi
    @sachastayswi 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Dude I SO would like to discuss this with you. I think the calculator is a good start but I see a couple of MAJOR flaws.

    • @sachastayswi
      @sachastayswi 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @Rakaia Designs I'd like to have more color on the risk free rate used, specially when valuating foreign companies as well as the risk for bias when computing for the different margin of safety models. Another concern is the fact that we are using analyst consensus (usually wrong, specially long-term) to estimate future growth rates. Lastly, I would comment on debt commitments in this calculation. Its not a bad start but wonder if this calculator will make some companies look cheap when in reality they are not. Just my 2¢.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Glad you reached out, happy to discuss this in detail with you. It's actually really cool to have someone to talk to about this stuff. Most of the people in my life find me boring and don't like this stuff. So its great that you want to talk about it with me. thanks :)!!! Firstly let me pad this comment by saying it is a simple intrinsic calculation. I completely agree with you that it is just a starting point. I would never invest by just using the calculator without evaluating the current and long term debt, growth rate reliability and management of the company. Regarding growth rate, no one can predict the future, and I don't believe anyone who thinks they can. So for simplicity, I use the analysts average. I agree, it isn't a great measure, but it's a good place to start. I also like to look at industry reports and industry average expectations from places like Simply wall street and their own expectations found in the annual reports. from here I can get a good feel for the anticipated growth rate. years 6-10 is nearly impossible so I factor in a little less than the 1-5 growth rate. Maybe the investment increases its growth rate, maybe it drops away faster, it is all just an educated guess. I'm trying to be mostly right, not terribly wrong. Now, regarding risk free rates, I think there is no such thing as a risk free rate so I don't include this. I know some intrinsic calculator models will use the 10 year US treasury as a measuring stick, but I don't do this because I don't think it is risk free. In my opinion, it adds an unnecessary layer of complexity, and doesn't make a big difference to the price I want to pay anyway. Looking back on my calculator, 20% ROI is me trying to get 15% plus a margin of safety. I think this gives me a reasonable margin of safety, but I much prefer the 22% ROI figure, which is my second buy price. I feel a lot more comfortable at this price. Did I address your questions? This is all totally my own opinion and I don't think my method is perfect, but I think it is conservative for me, and I get a lot of value out of it.

    • @sachastayswi
      @sachastayswi 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting it is cool indeed. Even cooler to chat with somebody that is humble about these things. I agree, the risk free rate for American companies with revenues in dollars has a minimal effect in forecasting. But for all others I believe it is very important. Say you invest in Airbus with revenues mostly in Euros. The risk free rate can spread between -0.8 in Germany to something like 6.4% in Greece. Also, when forecasting future growth prospects and cash flows, I believe in estimating terminal values for companies. Agree long-term this is a very hard task to do. I really like how you think. I am not a financial expert in any way. In fact, I am in medicine but quite fascinated with security analysis. A couple of friends started a really good channel called value investor TV podcast and we have a small Slack community of like-minded investors. I can give more info if u want. It is indeed hard to find and discuss these topics with the right people.

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Good point about the risk free rate in Europe, but I don't believe the 6.4% in Greece is risk free. So you might need to explain to me why I would want to say that the Greece 10 bond is a safer investment than the company operating in the same country. I still feel no government bind is entirely safe. haha. With Terminal value it is included in the calculator, it's the 10-15 x multiple of cash flow. I'll look for the podcast, and see what I think. Tell me more about the group of like minded people? What do you talk about?

    • @sachastayswi
      @sachastayswi 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@AndrewBrownInvesting it is actually the opposite. I would use the Germany rate. Conversatiins we have are similar to this one. We also have virtual meetings once in a while. Hsri and Becko lead the channel if u want to check it out. They are really boring haha but consequently really good.

  • @mohammadhairudy3626
    @mohammadhairudy3626 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hi does this apply to growth stocks ?

    • @AndrewBrownInvesting
      @AndrewBrownInvesting  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Yes, you just need to estimate the best growth rate you can. It's not a science, try a few different growth rates and see what you think is reasonable.