How To Calculate Intrinsic Value (AMZN Stock Example + Excel Template)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มิ.ย. 2024
- Many wonder what is intrinsic value or how to calculate intrinsic value. Well, this video will define intrinsic value, explain the key factors you need to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock, give you a great intrinsic value excel template you can use and discuss it all on a Amazon stock intrinsic value calculation.
0:00 Intrinsic Value
0:45 Intrinsic Value Definition
1:27 Key Elements
1:58 Earnings
5:38 Growth
6:24 Certainty
7:41 Discount Rate
9:08 Intrinsic Value Formula
10:13 AMZN Stock Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic value is defined as the number that you get if you can predict all the cash the business can give you between now and judgement day, discounted at a proper discount rate. This is how Warren Buffett put it in his speech: • Warren Buffett | Intri...
The formula to calculate intrinsic value is the discounted present value of future cash flows.
To apply the intrinsic value formula you need to understand its main components which are the cash flows or earnings, the future growth rate, the probability and the discount rate.
Here is the intrinsic value formula:
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This intrinsic value calculation video is part of my free stock market investing course - check it out for more content like this:
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#intrinsicvalue #stocks #warrenbuffett
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Been following you for a year now and I have to say that the content you provide is hands down the best. Thanks Sven!
thank, really nice to hear!
Here is the intrinsic value excel template - have fun and you can immediately use it as you watch the video: svencarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/INTRINSIC-VALUE-CALCULATION-FORMULA-SVEN-CARLIN-2.xlsx
thanks very much
Thanks you so much for this. I earlier rested my efforts to make my own spreadsheet a while ago.
Thank you very much Sven. Do you have something similar to evaluate junior gold mining companies/ Exploration gold companies? It could be intresting a video about that type of valuation.
Thank you so much, Sven. I've been following your channel for two weeks and I I really appreciate your work. This is the best value investing TH-cam channel, especially for non-native English speaker viewers. Greetings from Hungary :)
Hi Sven spreadsheet is in EUR, is this same for dollars as well or do we have to convert it from the intrinsic value number we get.
You just moved your channel a notch above the competition.
Hi Sven, after trying to learn about the stock market for a year now, I have to say you are providing a great value and information. Greatly appreciated :)
In case it helps anyone else, I copied the spreadsheet to google sheets and then used the googlefiance operations =googlefinance(A4, "eps") where A4 is the ticker symbol. I then found a list of the russel 1000 and copied it into column A. I used Sven's operations and then had it compare the price today =googlefinance(A4, "price") with the green cell in Sven's spreadsheet (present value sum) then made another column where it divides that cell by the price today. You can do conditional formating in google sheets (under the format tab) and make it color the cell green if it is over 100%. Googlesheets will update each time you open it and run the operations, then you can scroll through and see if anything is showing up as green.
Could you give a link to download this sheet? I would greatly appreciate it
Does this mean you have (/had) to make your own estimates for growth rates and terminal multiple, each times three, for the best, worst and normal cases, for each of those 1000 companies? Or did you (/can-one), do that in a formulaic way? Like taking a mean or median of past growth rates, and then x0.75/x1.5.. Not sure off the top of my head how one might estimate terminal multiple, in a similar way however.
Thanks for all the value delivered over the years, for sure hard work to prepair , really helpful!
Glad it was helpful!
I hope people realize and appreciate the level of education they're getting from you Sven. Cheers to you!
He is one of the bests!
thanks Sven again!
Amazing video, very helpful and useful!!!
Thank you very very much!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the best value investing channel. I work as an analyst for a Investment Bank and get value here
Best Channel on TH-cam
Thank you for the value you add to this world.
For this video I have been waiting 2.5 years druze moj... I have put mean while my own spreadsheet... I can send it to you...
Thank you for your content! You've provided a great introduction for your audience to get more pragmatic instead of just studying the markets and valuation methods. I would really appriciate more content like this, as seeing how you approach your research within Excel, would add huge value to my own investment analysis.
I am at a stage where I actively read 10Ks and 10Qs to understand the company, its opportunities and its risks but am unsure how to take my research to the next level and begin modelling and documenting the research myself. I do however i appreciate this may be proprietary research or outside the scope of your audience.
Thanks again Sven, and Merry Christmas!
thanks, will focus more on this as I am getting bored of just entertainment.
Damn this is amazing. You are doing this stuff for free. You need a patreon. Thank you for doing this for us.
thanks
@@Value-Investing Was that 8% your expected return on the investment??? Plz clarify
@@pankajverma8080 It will be 8% annualized
@@Value-Investing You are the best Sven
@@pankajverma8080 Yes Pankaj, the Discount rate is the actual returns what the investor expects from that particular investment. Warren used to use 15% as expected returns in a business ...
Great video. Thank you !
This is crazy value you're giving here, thank you. Merry Christmas
Thanks you! It is a great video!!!
Amazing video as always! The only TH-cam channel i found so far with substance. Puno hvala!
hvala!
Amazing video 🔥🔥 Very well explained
Thank you 🙌
this video is great!
Great Video!!!
😀😀😀
Seems excellent. Thank you. I subscribed.
Thanks for the sub!
Excelent work!
I am really happy to have this tool
Its going to help my investmente decisions.
happy to hear that!
One of your best Vedios, thanks 👌🏻
This video has a tremendous intrinsic value! Thank you for all your work, it's really teaching me how to explore the world of investing.
My pleasure!
This is free. Thank You g 🙌🏿
Good content and thanks for the template!
Master , thank You
happy to help!
Very valuable 👌
Great video!!!
thanks!
thank you once again from malaysia
One of the best videos !
I like how you point and say Warren
hehe!
Excellent video.
Thank you very much!
Thank you sir.
Happy to hear that!
Thanks Sven! In a crazy market like this it's great to get a tool to help ground investment decisions. Keep up the excellent work!
Grande Sven... Video di grande value...
grazie!
Very cool stuff Sven can't wait to play around with the template provided. Kudos.
Have fun!
Brilliant 👍! Great content Sven
Thanks Steve...god bless you
This is super helpful!
Fantastic video introducing the aspects and factors of a DCF model. I believe the discount rate is the most challenging aspect of a DCF model. Cost of equity or WACC may be used if you are doing FCFE or FCFF. May you do a video about discount rates and real methods used in the industry and by some of the best valuation thinkers out there?
Thanks a lot
Thank you Sven, very instructive video
Glad it was helpful!
Appreciate. Thanks
Amazing video Sven
Thanks!
Great content
Thanks!
Great video, Sven! You provide so much value to the people that want to learn
Thanks - hvala!
Thank you! It is very useful for me.
Glad to hear that!
Thank you so much for this, very nice introduction into the topic.
Glad it was helpful!
awesome video!! thanks sven
Grande Sven! Adoro quando fai le interviste con Domenico in Italiano!
Contenuti da Top TH-camr!
People have been waiting for this video for a years :)
Great video Sven! Thanks for sharing. Happy Holidays 🎄
I actually listened to info about your course. Maybe first finance/stock youtuber that has made me interested
Awesome content. Thanks a lot Sven!
My pleasure!
Thank you very much ! very detailed.
Glad it was helpful!
Sven your material is fantastic. I am a big fan of your TH-cam channel and a few weeks ago I bought your book "Modern Value Investing" and I have loved it as well. Thank you for all the value you provide us!
Thanks! Great to hear!
Amazing video Sven Thank you!
Thank you too!
Ti si kralj🔥♥️
OMG thanks Sven I was just reading your book and I was confused on the insintric value part and I was thinking in my head I wish he made a video on this, YES!
:-)
Someone who is actually specialized in the field sharing knowledge to the green.... he is for real !
thanks!
Really useful, thanks a lot!!
Glad it was helpful!
Love ur channel ! Great work, learning so much, thank you !
Thnk you Sven!!
thank you for the template and the great explanation.. how do you come up with the terminal multiple??
again an estimation, the lower the better!
Fantastic, thank you very much for the free calculator Sven!
Fantastic video, Sven! Super useful spreadsheet, too!
Sven You are too good!
Great video as always thanks. When estimating future growth rates, just wondering why we use the % change in revenue as opposed to % net change in revenue, after all isn't EPS calculated using the net change? Thanks.
???
Thanks Sven, terrific video and excel template!!
Had a question - I thought for discounted cash flows, you typically take "free cash flow" as the starting point. Does taking an earnings-based number like EPS (instead of free cash flow) affect the accuracy?
I use different things depending on the company, but the results should be similar always!
@@Value-Investing What if the company is cooking? They can't cook cash flow.
Great videos
Glad you think so!
love all your videos!! But a question why do you use EPS and not FCF? I thought companies could bend it a little ?
thanks Sven!
My pleasure!
Thank you for making this. It's going to help a lot of people. Great video
happy to hear that
Thanks a lot for the video amazing!!!
Glad you liked it!
Great video Sven, btw you and Warren make a great team ;)
Merry Christmas Sven! Thanks for sharing!
Hey Sven! Thanks for the video, the file and the efforts!! One of the best value investing videos I have seen!! I have a question regarding the calculation file. I am looking into the file and I see you multiply year2029 earning by PE. I was expecting 2030 to be multiplied by PE as we are discounting for 10 years. Can you explain why? Also I put the exact same values in the spreadsheet (you made available) and noticed cell N 7 has a different value than the video maybe you adjusted but can you tell me if any tweeks are needed?
I am welcoming everybody's input on this
Support the your chanel always prof
You are a genius thank you for sharing so many useful information
Glad it was helpful!
sven you're by far the best financial channel on youtube. thanks for all the value !!
Wow, thanks!
@@Value-Investing Where did you calculate the number of stocks each company has ?
Thanks for the great value you provided!
Great stuff Sven as always, by chance do you have a video on how to value growth/unprofitable companies yet ? that would help a lot and many people would like it also I think
one day those should be profitable - so it is about potential earnings and the chance of hitting those
@@Value-Investing got it, fair and square ... just wondering how can one put that into an excel and do some basic modelling with it ? :P that would be very nice :)
Thank you for the Discounted Cash Flow Excel Sheet! You are one of my favorite Value Investors on TH-cam! Happy Holidays!
Happy holidays!
Sven, you are such a gem!
Thank u .
Thank you very very much Sven. Best Christmas gift! This template is amazing!
happy to hear that!
Great Video Sven one of your best definitely in my top 10 Sven Carlin videos!!!!!!!!
Wow, thanks!
Thank you Sven. This is great.
Amazingly useful vid ! Thanks one more time Sven. Wish you all the Best for 2021 !
Same to you!
Nail It Again Sven, you have been working like crazy. Tks.
Good day Sven! Thank you for the video!
Must have read my mind, was researching AMZN this morning.
Another great video Sven. Could You please explain how to calculate value for stock which also pays dividend using Your excel spreedsheet ?
Thank you! Contents simply amazing, real value!
Glad you think so!
Valuable insights, thanks Sven.
My pleasure!
Nice video
Thanks
super like and thumbs up. thanks Sven
Many thanks!
You are awesome! Thank you
thank you!