In case it helps anyone else, I copied the spreadsheet to google sheets and then used the googlefiance operations =googlefinance(A4, "eps") where A4 is the ticker symbol. I then found a list of the russel 1000 and copied it into column A. I used Sven's operations and then had it compare the price today =googlefinance(A4, "price") with the green cell in Sven's spreadsheet (present value sum) then made another column where it divides that cell by the price today. You can do conditional formating in google sheets (under the format tab) and make it color the cell green if it is over 100%. Googlesheets will update each time you open it and run the operations, then you can scroll through and see if anything is showing up as green.
Does this mean you have (/had) to make your own estimates for growth rates and terminal multiple, each times three, for the best, worst and normal cases, for each of those 1000 companies? Or did you (/can-one), do that in a formulaic way? Like taking a mean or median of past growth rates, and then x0.75/x1.5.. Not sure off the top of my head how one might estimate terminal multiple, in a similar way however.
@@pankajverma8080 Yes Pankaj, the Discount rate is the actual returns what the investor expects from that particular investment. Warren used to use 15% as expected returns in a business ...
Hi Sven, after trying to learn about the stock market for a year now, I have to say you are providing a great value and information. Greatly appreciated :)
I have watched a lot of videos on how to calculate the intrinsic value of a scrip. None as well as explained by Sven. I feel confident for the first time about using this approach....
Fantastic video introducing the aspects and factors of a DCF model. I believe the discount rate is the most challenging aspect of a DCF model. Cost of equity or WACC may be used if you are doing FCFE or FCFF. May you do a video about discount rates and real methods used in the industry and by some of the best valuation thinkers out there?
OMG thanks Sven I was just reading your book and I was confused on the insintric value part and I was thinking in my head I wish he made a video on this, YES!
This model has a lot of shortcomings. It depends too much on the assumptions that you put in it. You could see how the "intrinsic value" of a company varies depending on the numbers you use. You can have discount rate from 1-20% (nobody knows what's the right discount rate as Sven pointed out), growth from 0-50% (how can you tell the future of a company for 10 years ahead and even be so "smart" to know what the growth is going to be), possibilities of several scenarios from 0-100% (how you get those probabilities? Just out of the head?) and so on. And the value of the company is therefore somewhere between 0 and 15.000. Good luck using this approach.
Thank you very much for this method, this will definitely help me to improve my investments! If we do this fundamental analysis every time before buying stocks, our long term yields would improve considerably and consistently
Thanks for sharing this. You are doing a great service by empowering common people to take control of thier financial destiny with reliable and honest information that's so hard to find . Everyone interested in growing thier wealth should follow this channel
Thank you for your content! You've provided a great introduction for your audience to get more pragmatic instead of just studying the markets and valuation methods. I would really appriciate more content like this, as seeing how you approach your research within Excel, would add huge value to my own investment analysis. I am at a stage where I actively read 10Ks and 10Qs to understand the company, its opportunities and its risks but am unsure how to take my research to the next level and begin modelling and documenting the research myself. I do however i appreciate this may be proprietary research or outside the scope of your audience. Thanks again Sven, and Merry Christmas!
Sven your material is fantastic. I am a big fan of your TH-cam channel and a few weeks ago I bought your book "Modern Value Investing" and I have loved it as well. Thank you for all the value you provide us!
Hi Sven I am a new follower thanks for all the work you put in. However there is something I don't understand. In the example you seem to be using :EPS but the input cell is labeled cash flow! How can that be interchangeable? Would you not need a different multiple for basing your calculation between EPS and Free Cash Flow? - I don't understand how you can just type in seemingly random values and get a uniform output! I have even seen you inputting the dividend (from your example of Unilever) In case you see this post and you feel like giving a thorough reply, I would love a video where you go through the same company using different input values (EPS, FCF, dividend, ETC) and then explain why a certain method is best and why the results are different and how use the result, Or maybe you already made a video like that, Then I would appreciate anyone reading this much post a link.
Just a question. Should you count the present value of future earnings, if they are fully reinvested to fuel growth? My impression is you are counting them twice. Thanks!
I watched the video some month ago and I clicked the "like" button. Now I just finished to watch the video again. I 'd like push the "like" button again, but I can't
Dear Sven, in my opinion you have mistake in Excel file. Cells: J18, K18, L18, M18 have connection to cell O12, but correct calculation is into the cell O18. Thank you for production of videos on youtube.
Can you please explain more terminal multiple , you mean probably P/E how do you guess it? Right now amazon has 90 so u divided that by 2 to get the best scenario and work of that?
@@Value-Investing what if I calculate terminal value by dividing the last cash flow forecast by the difference between the discount rate and terminal growth rate. Whereas the terminal growth rate is still an estimation but that will be conservative (more like the growth rate in the worst case scenario) to use that as a margin of safety ?
Great stuff Sven as always, by chance do you have a video on how to value growth/unprofitable companies yet ? that would help a lot and many people would like it also I think
@@Value-Investing got it, fair and square ... just wondering how can one put that into an excel and do some basic modelling with it ? :P that would be very nice :)
"It is easy in the world to live after the world's opinion; it is easy in solitude to live after our own; but the great man is he who in the midst of the crowd keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude." -Ralph Waldo Emerson You deserve that quote Sven, while everybody out there is making non-useful-clickbait-garbage-horrible-nonbenefitingtothesociety contents such as market crash. Thank you!
Mr Sven Carlin, I have a question. For terminal multiple, what should be the best number and how to decide it. And can we use the PE ratio as the terminal multiple ? Please reply.
Thank you very much. Do you think that I should calculate the discount rate a little bit higher than 8% in such times like nowadays with high interest rate? somewhat formula of: discount rate= 8%+(interest Rate) Hence today my discount rate will be 13%? (8%+5% interest rate)
Hi Sven, what is your recommendation on chosing which stock multiples to use for calculating intrinsic value for a stock? e.g. Amazon, as far as I heard, it's more reasonable to use Operating Cash Flow (and similarly for BABA, MELI, etc.), but if we take stocks like Ahold or Acomo or Rubis, what would be the logic? Do we look at all the aspects (e.g. earnings, FCF, Operating Cash Flow) and compare the results or is there a way one could better identified which metric to pickup?
Hey Sven, if I put the same numbers out of the Amazon sheet in the input cells in the empty sheet (2) in your latest excel file I get a different stock price. What’s the difference on these two sheets? Is the empty sheet the one to use?
Thank you Sven, this has great value!! interesting to have multiple scenarios associated to probabilities. Buffett says he's targeting the 8-10% return if I am not mistaken. It all depends on what is your margin of safety and therefore the worst case scenario is really important :)
In your spreadsheet, it looks like you also sometimes use total earnings (instead of per share), and not divide by the amount of shares. Am I seeing that correctly?
You just moved your channel a notch above the competition.
Been following you for a year now and I have to say that the content you provide is hands down the best. Thanks Sven!
thank, really nice to hear!
I hope people realize and appreciate the level of education they're getting from you Sven. Cheers to you!
He is one of the bests!
thanks Sven again!
For this video I have been waiting 2.5 years druze moj... I have put mean while my own spreadsheet... I can send it to you...
This is the best value investing channel. I work as an analyst for a Investment Bank and get value here
In case it helps anyone else, I copied the spreadsheet to google sheets and then used the googlefiance operations =googlefinance(A4, "eps") where A4 is the ticker symbol. I then found a list of the russel 1000 and copied it into column A. I used Sven's operations and then had it compare the price today =googlefinance(A4, "price") with the green cell in Sven's spreadsheet (present value sum) then made another column where it divides that cell by the price today. You can do conditional formating in google sheets (under the format tab) and make it color the cell green if it is over 100%. Googlesheets will update each time you open it and run the operations, then you can scroll through and see if anything is showing up as green.
Could you give a link to download this sheet? I would greatly appreciate it
Does this mean you have (/had) to make your own estimates for growth rates and terminal multiple, each times three, for the best, worst and normal cases, for each of those 1000 companies? Or did you (/can-one), do that in a formulaic way? Like taking a mean or median of past growth rates, and then x0.75/x1.5.. Not sure off the top of my head how one might estimate terminal multiple, in a similar way however.
Could you give a link to download this sheet?
This is crazy value you're giving here, thank you. Merry Christmas
Amazing video as always! The only TH-cam channel i found so far with substance. Puno hvala!
hvala!
Damn this is amazing. You are doing this stuff for free. You need a patreon. Thank you for doing this for us.
thanks
@@Value-Investing Was that 8% your expected return on the investment??? Plz clarify
@@pankajverma8080 It will be 8% annualized
@@Value-Investing You are the best Sven
@@pankajverma8080 Yes Pankaj, the Discount rate is the actual returns what the investor expects from that particular investment. Warren used to use 15% as expected returns in a business ...
Hi Sven, after trying to learn about the stock market for a year now, I have to say you are providing a great value and information. Greatly appreciated :)
Exactly what I’ve been looking for lately. Getting more into the actual numbers of understanding value investing.
Best Channel on TH-cam
Amazing video, very helpful and useful!!!
Thank you very very much!!!!!!!!!!!
Super educational and amazing video!
I have watched a lot of videos on how to calculate the intrinsic value of a scrip. None as well as explained by Sven. I feel confident for the first time about using this approach....
thanks!
Thanks for all the value delivered over the years, for sure hard work to prepair , really helpful!
Glad it was helpful!
Someone who is actually specialized in the field sharing knowledge to the green.... he is for real !
thanks!
Fantastic video introducing the aspects and factors of a DCF model. I believe the discount rate is the most challenging aspect of a DCF model. Cost of equity or WACC may be used if you are doing FCFE or FCFF. May you do a video about discount rates and real methods used in the industry and by some of the best valuation thinkers out there?
Grande Sven! Adoro quando fai le interviste con Domenico in Italiano!
Contenuti da Top TH-camr!
Thank you! It is very useful for me.
Glad to hear that!
Fantastic, thank you very much for the free calculator Sven!
Excelent work!
I am really happy to have this tool
Its going to help my investmente decisions.
happy to hear that!
Great video Sven, btw you and Warren make a great team ;)
OMG thanks Sven I was just reading your book and I was confused on the insintric value part and I was thinking in my head I wish he made a video on this, YES!
:-)
This model has a lot of shortcomings. It depends too much on the assumptions that you put in it. You could see how the "intrinsic value" of a company varies depending on the numbers you use. You can have discount rate from 1-20% (nobody knows what's the right discount rate as Sven pointed out), growth from 0-50% (how can you tell the future of a company for 10 years ahead and even be so "smart" to know what the growth is going to be), possibilities of several scenarios from 0-100% (how you get those probabilities? Just out of the head?) and so on. And the value of the company is therefore somewhere between 0 and 15.000. Good luck using this approach.
jebote Ziga, sad se ti najdes mi solit pamet :-))))) pa sve u investiranju je asumpcija!!! Kad prodje korona ceka te kava v Radovljici!!!!
@@Value-Investing
Sven, nadam se da ću se vidjeti uskoro i da si se več naučio nešto slovenski :) Jedan tvojih prvih 500 subscrajberov! Ciao!
Amazing video 🔥🔥 Very well explained
Thank you 🙌
Grande Sven... Video di grande value...
grazie!
Seems excellent. Thank you. I subscribed.
Thanks for the sub!
sven you're by far the best financial channel on youtube. thanks for all the value !!
Wow, thanks!
@@Value-Investing Where did you calculate the number of stocks each company has ?
Ti si kralj🔥♥️
Thank you for the value you add to this world.
This video has a tremendous intrinsic value! Thank you for all your work, it's really teaching me how to explore the world of investing.
My pleasure!
Simply fabulous! Thanks for sharing your knowledge with mortal people like me.
Amazing content Sven! You are a great teacher. Buying your book for sure. Cheers.
Awesome, thank you!
I actually listened to info about your course. Maybe first finance/stock youtuber that has made me interested
Thank you very much for this method, this will definitely help me to improve my investments! If we do this fundamental analysis every time before buying stocks, our long term yields would improve considerably and consistently
Glad it was helpful!
Now I have to calculate the present value of the discounted returns I will make because of this video. I say a fair terminal multiple is infinity :).
Thanks for sharing this. You are doing a great service by empowering common people to take control of thier financial destiny with reliable and honest information that's so hard to find . Everyone interested in growing thier wealth should follow this channel
I appreciate that!
Good content and thanks for the template!
this video is great!
thank you for the template and the great explanation.. how do you come up with the terminal multiple??
again an estimation, the lower the better!
Thank you for your content! You've provided a great introduction for your audience to get more pragmatic instead of just studying the markets and valuation methods. I would really appriciate more content like this, as seeing how you approach your research within Excel, would add huge value to my own investment analysis.
I am at a stage where I actively read 10Ks and 10Qs to understand the company, its opportunities and its risks but am unsure how to take my research to the next level and begin modelling and documenting the research myself. I do however i appreciate this may be proprietary research or outside the scope of your audience.
Thanks again Sven, and Merry Christmas!
thanks, will focus more on this as I am getting bored of just entertainment.
This is free. Thank You g 🙌🏿
Sven your material is fantastic. I am a big fan of your TH-cam channel and a few weeks ago I bought your book "Modern Value Investing" and I have loved it as well. Thank you for all the value you provide us!
Thanks! Great to hear!
Thanks, I have been try finding the answer to this question so long. And you make it so clear and easy to understand. Thanks
Glad it was helpful!
Merry Christmas Sven! Thanks for sharing!
Hi Sven I am a new follower thanks for all the work you put in. However there is something I don't understand.
In the example you seem to be using :EPS but the input cell is labeled cash flow! How can that be interchangeable?
Would you not need a different multiple for basing your calculation between EPS and Free Cash Flow?
- I don't understand how you can just type in seemingly random values and get a uniform output!
I have even seen you inputting the dividend (from your example of Unilever)
In case you see this post and you feel like giving a thorough reply, I would love a video where you go through the same company using different input values (EPS, FCF, dividend, ETC) and then explain why a certain method is best and why the results are different and how use the result,
Or maybe you already made a video like that, Then I would appreciate anyone reading this much post a link.
Can someone pls explain the 'Terminal Multiple' value pls?
I don't quite get that yet on what I should input
will make a video!
this is just the P/E Ratio you expecting the company to have at the end of your valuation
Great Video Sven one of your best definitely in my top 10 Sven Carlin videos!!!!!!!!
Wow, thanks!
One of your best Vedios, thanks 👌🏻
So much "value" for value investors. Thank you Sven. Great Job.
You're welcome
People have been waiting for this video for a years :)
Great video, thanks. FYI: Your spreadsheet Scenario 3 is wrong from 2027 as those cells grow by 20% (best case scenario) and not by 12%.
I like how you point and say Warren
hehe!
SVEN you deserve the whole world my man.
haha, thanks!
One of the best videos !
Just a question. Should you count the present value of future earnings, if they are fully reinvested to fuel growth? My impression is you are counting them twice.
Thanks!
no, if you calculate the growth, then not!
Very cool stuff Sven can't wait to play around with the template provided. Kudos.
Have fun!
Great video Sven! Thanks for sharing. Happy Holidays 🎄
I watched the video some month ago and I clicked the "like" button.
Now I just finished to watch the video again. I 'd like push the "like" button again, but I can't
thanks!
very good explanation and easy to understand. Tomorrow more practice thank you ❤️️
Great Video!!!
😀😀😀
Dear Sven, in my opinion you have mistake in Excel file. Cells: J18, K18, L18, M18 have connection to cell O12, but correct calculation is into the cell O18. Thank you for production of videos on youtube.
corrected, thanks!
Wow, that's helpful Sven, Thanks for sharing!
Glad it was helpful!
@@Value-Investing Thanks, again. Where to find Terminal multiple numbers?
Thank you for making this. It's going to help a lot of people. Great video
happy to hear that
Thanks you! It is a great video!!!
thanks for this exceptional video...i don't have excel and i can't open the template, could you make this template for google sheets?
So helpful! This is the legitimate knowledge any stock buyers should know....too bad many are still driven by surface price.
Can you please explain more terminal multiple , you mean probably P/E how do you guess it? Right now amazon has 90 so u divided that by 2 to get the best scenario and work of that?
impossible to explain, you try to be conservative for a margin of safety and that is it :-( unfortunately it is just an estimation.
@@Value-Investing what if I calculate terminal value by dividing the last cash flow forecast by the difference between the discount rate and terminal growth rate. Whereas the terminal growth rate is still an estimation but that will be conservative (more like the growth rate in the worst case scenario) to use that as a margin of safety ?
Sven, Can you please show me how to calculate the Terminal Multiple? How can you get 30 for amazon?
you estimate! The lower you go the better
@@Value-Investing how would you estimate it? Based on its EPS, Revenue, Growth?
Great stuff Sven as always, by chance do you have a video on how to value growth/unprofitable companies yet ? that would help a lot and many people would like it also I think
one day those should be profitable - so it is about potential earnings and the chance of hitting those
@@Value-Investing got it, fair and square ... just wondering how can one put that into an excel and do some basic modelling with it ? :P that would be very nice :)
You are a genius thank you for sharing so many useful information
Glad it was helpful!
How does probability work and what does "Part" mean?
Amazing video Sven
Thanks!
"It is easy in the world to live after the world's opinion; it is easy in solitude to live after our own; but the great man is he who in the midst of the crowd keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude." -Ralph Waldo Emerson
You deserve that quote Sven, while everybody out there is making non-useful-clickbait-garbage-horrible-nonbenefitingtothesociety contents such as market crash. Thank you!
I read this quote in "The Intelligent Investor"
Good one!
thanks!
thank you once again from malaysia
HI SVEN. FROM WHERE YOU TAKE THIS TERMINAL MULTIPLE? WHAT IT IS THAT INDICATOR ? FIRST TIME I HEARD ABOUT THAT. BEST INVESTING TH-camR.
hi, thanks, here is the explanation: th-cam.com/video/QMk-F_XwoDY/w-d-xo.html
Amazing video Sven Thank you!
Thank you too!
Great work Sven, thank you.
Glad you liked it!
Mr Sven Carlin, I have a question.
For terminal multiple, what should be the best number and how to decide it.
And can we use the PE ratio as the terminal multiple ?
Please reply.
th-cam.com/video/QMk-F_XwoDY/w-d-xo.html
Sven, important part of the model is number of years used, why exactly then? Shortening the period to 5 - value would be always much higher
nope, it is the same. It is the discounted value at a future date!
Thank you very much. Do you think that I should calculate the discount rate a little bit higher than 8% in such times like nowadays with high interest rate? somewhat formula of: discount rate= 8%+(interest Rate)
Hence today my discount rate will be 13%? (8%+5% interest rate)
Thank you so much for this, very nice introduction into the topic.
Glad it was helpful!
Hi Sven, what is your recommendation on chosing which stock multiples to use for calculating intrinsic value for a stock? e.g. Amazon, as far as I heard, it's more reasonable to use Operating Cash Flow (and similarly for BABA, MELI, etc.), but if we take stocks like Ahold or Acomo or Rubis, what would be the logic? Do we look at all the aspects (e.g. earnings, FCF, Operating Cash Flow) and compare the results or is there a way one could better identified which metric to pickup?
Hey Sven, if I put the same numbers out of the Amazon sheet in the input cells in the empty sheet (2) in your latest excel file I get a different stock price. What’s the difference on these two sheets? Is the empty sheet the one to use?
Thank you Sven, very instructive video
Glad it was helpful!
This is super helpful!
This is awesome, as someone who loves excel, I really appreciate this and the knowledge.
thanks!
Must have read my mind, was researching AMZN this morning.
Master , thank You
happy to help!
Brilliant 👍! Great content Sven
Brilliant! I’ve heard a lot about DCF and heard Buffett’s definition many times but never really understood it until now. Thanks Sven!
Glad it was helpful!
Thank you Sven, this has great value!! interesting to have multiple scenarios associated to probabilities. Buffett says he's targeting the 8-10% return if I am not mistaken. It all depends on what is your margin of safety and therefore the worst case scenario is really important :)
Thanks Sven for the early christmas present! Great youtube content!
happy to hear that.
Awesome content. Thanks a lot Sven!
My pleasure!
In your spreadsheet, it looks like you also sometimes use total earnings (instead of per share), and not divide by the amount of shares. Am I seeing that correctly?
it is the same - just the output has to be compared to market capitalization or share price.
So hard to find this kind of quality investing info, not get rich quick schemes
thanks!
Great video.
Thanks!
Thank you for the Discounted Cash Flow Excel Sheet! You are one of my favorite Value Investors on TH-cam! Happy Holidays!
Happy holidays!
awesome video!! thanks sven