Check out the follow up video where I put these ideas to the test using data collected from a bunch of people's rolls. I'll admit the results were not what I expected... th-cam.com/video/CbVBgEr0pM0/w-d-xo.html
I just did 3 muilt rolls and got 7 Jing Ke and 6 Hassan of the Serenity? Do you I will adventy run out of those cards and start getting different ones? Or is there a unlimited number of them?
I'll admit it: I'm not too much of a math wizard myself. But! I do think you deserve props for discussing this topic at all--and in a unique way by providing your interesting calculations.
My recommendation is to stick with single roll, not because of math (this is gacha afterall) but the mentality that goes along with it... a 3x single roll = 9quartz...and 3xmulti roll = 90quartz, now imagine the worst case scenario where all you get is 4* CE from multi roll, that will be equivalent to three 3* from single roll No matter how much quartz you have, multi roll can make you easily spend them in just few clicks.. But in Single roll, you feel the pain, every roll seems giving you hint how shitty your luck is, and you can stop prematurely. Calm down, and maybe roll it tomorrow,... Changing the way i roll help me conserve my quartz and not fall into the gacha hell...if your luck is shit, multi doesnt help, i believe our luck fluctuate and always come unexpected..so dont play gacha like you were in casino with that "All In" mentality...throw a couple of quartz, set a limit, and move along when you didnt get it, sure you can do it using multi roll, but it doesnt work bcoz it all gone so fast, and you just go, ahhh fk it!!! spend it all.
@@MustProtectUwU42069 Its the same thing on paper, its the same exact rate, i'm talking about the mental pressure you put on doing multi roll vs single roll. Ever since i change to my technique of doing FP roll -> swap to yolo, i get a lot of unnecessary break (ex: clearing storage, lvl up CE, selling silver card for mana prism) All this extra task make me roll much longer that i should...i could clear 1000quartz in cless than 30mins when i do multi... Try that when you doing FP > Single pull...it gonna take hours, and that help you mentally to cope with the situation.
During test.... (Math why!?!? Why is it so hard to solve your problem) Using Math for game statistics.... (10^4...etc,...etc,....etc. And that's the probability of it happening)
Guys no one thinks that ur chances of rolling a 5 star goes up with multis. This is the 1 and only reason why I single roll. singles let u use quarts in intervals of 3. you can stop rolling once u get ur 5 star servant. with multis its intervals of 30. ur probably not gonna get ur 5 star servant on your last pull in a 10 summons. idk to me every quart counts so even saving 12 quarts is enough for me to roll singles
That's a great point that I didn't really mention. If the only thing you care about is getting a particular 5 star Servant and minimizing the amount of quartz it costs, single rolling is likely the efficient solution. In theory you'll get slightly worse CEs but that's probably worth it considering the amount of quartz you might end up saving, which can be anywhere between 0 and 27.
plus the odds of pulling a gold card is already 20% (2/10 cards) Although it is possible that you wont get a gold card in 10 singles, ur probably gioing to.
I only do multi rolls just to speed up time , sometimes my luck is just a gift from God , and some times it isnt , like my 3 first 5 stars where the 3 Altrias , each one in my first attempt at the spawn , Lancer , later got Archer twice in a row in multi rolls and last Saber in NeroFest when i was going for Nero Bride
@@VeritasNumquamPerit Ye. I also learn how to Increase my mental strength by Farming 100+ times in a row a few days ago by Doing Summer 4 Las Vegas event Stages…. Ugh
All I know is that just about every 5 star Servant I've ever gotten has come from a ticket or a single pull, while 10-rolls are Unlimited Black Keys Works
@@amai2307 man you really replied to my comment from 4 years ago? Honestly these days with the pity system in place I just do 10x rolls if it’s a character I want because I know I’ll eventually get it.
"I'd rather betray the multi-roll than letting the multi-roll betray me" The complication with multi-roll is that the probability you need to calculate is conditional probability. Conditional probability happens when the events, which are the 10 rolls in every multi-roll, are not independent. There is guaranteed to be a 3 star servant and a 4 star card in a multi-roll and the presence of these certain events affects the probabilities of the rest 8 or 9 draws. So the listed probabilities cannot be used for reference in this case. There is a conditional probability formula to use, but we lack information on how exactly the drawing process is coded(can't get P(A and B) ). On the other hand, there is no reason for single rolls to be affected by other single rolls. I have pulled 20 ssrs and at least 10 of them come from single rolls, 1 from lucky bag (CN server). Some of them even showed up when they are not rated up. My average rate is 2 to 3 SRs and 1 SSR for about every 140 quartzs.
I'll admit this did almost put me to sleep. But in that sense it was very much like any stats class I've attended XD. Nicely done in laying out the numbers. As expected it doesn't make any real difference. Though I don't mind doing the multi-rolls. On the rare chance (or honestly just the one time) I got really lucky with a multi, it does add to the shock value to just see all those pulls lined up together. But I agree with the idea that if you want a servant badly and you've still got 3...then use them. Your odds won't be any worse. Pull when you want to pull. The odds are low regardless so might as well take your shot.
*When you finish watching this video, decide to do a 1 Pull using your last Summon Ticket (that you don't remember how you got), and get a 4 Star Servant*
wanna hear something salty? . . I try to pull okita souji and wasted 90 quartz and I never even got okita souji or any decent four stars. then here is my friend who has 11 quartz making a joke to me saying he could pull okita. THEN HE REALLY PULLED IT WITH JUST 3 QUARTZ!!! YES JUST 3 QUARTZZZ!! then he uses his remaining quartz on shinjuku banner. guess what? HE JUST PULLED AVENGER OF SHINJUKU IN SINGLE ROLL!! then here's me w/o any SSR wasted 90 quartz getting nothing while he used only 6 quartz to get both avenger of shinjuku and okita. . . I can feel him putting salt on my wound.
I'm ngl I'm kinda like that friend. My friend was jokingly teasing me and I was like ALRIGHT FUCK IT. I'm gonna use my bullshit luck to get enkidu. The next day I was using a summon ticket on his banner, I got ozymandias, instead. He still flipped.
I know it's a little depressing, but that 1% chance does work out sometimes. I think the best bet is to save quartz for the really good banners and try to maximize your chance that the 1% ends up being one of the SSR Servants you really want. And if you're willing to spend just a little bit of money once a year, you can roll on the guaranteed 5 star banner we'll probably be getting for Thanksgiving again.
Marchera XIII I am not gonna be saving for anyone long term, too many people got burned with Jalter and Tamamo so it's best if I just play by the seat of my pants. :P
While watching this I decided I was just going to do single rolls with my 10 sq, and got tamamo-no-me during the 2020 new year banner. You are my new dad.
Well for now they won't. I'm saving for the Round Table Knights Banner. Pulling randomly on banners, after 200+ free quartz wasted, taught me that I should hoard for some higher chances of getting good gold servants. That one is objectively the best free banner I ever saw lol...very few gold (I think less than 10) FIXED (you can't get spooked) and most of them are very good, and the other couple of them is still good. I'll mainly roll for the Alters and Saber Lancelot. But yeah, Mordred, OG Saber and Lancer Artoria are very welcome to surprise me xD. The others won't make me much happy but also not unsatisfied. My quartz are ready. If I did the math correctly, I should have around 500 plus a good amount of tickets at that point.
Yeah, knocking most of the other SR and SSR Servants out of the pool is super helpful. Good luck! If you save that long it should turn out to be a pretty amazing roll. I'm really torn on that one though, because shortly after that we will finally see Merlin.
I used to think singles were bad since i only got 3 star ces but after seeing your vid i decided to throw some tickets at the osakabehime banner and got tamamo and elisabeth bathory with a few tickets , your videos are helping people even 2 years later ! good job
Was scrolling through and read tons of comments saying they all got their 5 stars through singles; I had gotten Mordred through a random ticket myself, and I went "eh, might as well give it a try." I got Scathach on my second roll.
EVERY SINGLE 5 STAR I HAVE PULLED CAME FROM A TICKET. EVERY.SINGLE.ONE. I have done multiple multi pulls and never pulled a 5 star servant ever. It’s a LIE.
Phillip Vang I got a Kaleidoscope on a single pull. I've tried at least 4 multi roll and only got Chevalier d'eon and bunch of CEs and 3 star servants. Still salty about my E-rank luck.
I've done 10 single pulls on multiple occasions. And i usually get 10 times 3* garbage, so I'd rather take the multi and get at least one 4* ce or servant.
I got Swimsuit Martha in my first pull of the summer event, then i got Orion and Mordred in the Story gacha. After that i never had luck again, i only get CEs and i hate it
Very good about probability explanation, honestly im still confused about the math part, but the way you explain it, i guess it's still in the scenario about the best and the worst possibilities outcomes
Its useful to note a "disadvantage to multi" that being that if you are targetting a single card, say Jalter, for the sake of the example, but only expect/want to get a single and no more than that, or another example, is that you only need the 5th copy of something to max it out, doing a multi ensures you spend all 30 SQ and more often than not, the drop that you expect does not happen on the very last card, on average you get in on the middle, meaning that instead of rolling say 5 summons and stopping there, you are already in for another 5 summons even if you dont need anything else, do I make myself clear?
Yes, that's a great point. If you are aiming for a single copy of a specific card you'll probably be able to stop sooner if you pull one at a time. You would theoretically save an average of 13.5 quartz per banner you roll on (averaging between 0 and 27 quartz saved).
Another good point. You have a 1% chance of pulling your first SSR on the first card. A 0.99% chance of pulling your first SSR on the second card. 0.9801% chance on the third card, and so on until 0.9135% on the 10th card (.99^9*.01). That means the average savings will actually be a BIT higher, because you have a SLIGHTLY better chance of pulling it earlier than later. If you assume that we definitely get it somewhere in the 10 summons (eg if you keep pulling singles forever until you get the SSR) then the revised percentages become 10.46%, 10.35%, 10.25%... 9.55%. This means you'll save 27 quartz 10.46% of the time, 24 quartz 10.35% of the time... and in the end you actually save an average of 13.75 quartz, slightly more than the initial estimate :)
Charles L the only real effect the guaranteed cards happens when you roll 8 3* CE on a row and the very last 2 cards doesn't have the 3* CE cards on the summoning pool, which rarely happens (see the video)
You most likely save SQ on average by doing singles(if, and only if, what you expect to get is something very particular, if you're targeting something), pulling 10 3* CEs on a row is extremely unlikely, you would have to be crazy unlucky to roll those and "not save" by doing singles, trying to save SQ it's a bit of a gamble by itself, but one in wich the odds are (somewhat) on your favor
Nice vid. On this new event, I did a one and only 10x summon and I got the 5 star exclusive, 4 star emiya (archer), and a 4 star craft essence lol, guess I had good luck
Mordred kicks my Butt in camelot, was thanksgiving, i need something to make me Fell better, so i decide to roll with ONLY 9 QUANTZ, in the First one a 3 STAR CE, i was not hoping to get anything in the First place, i Just find the sensantion to the gacha similar like a slot machine, got scathach in my 2 try, happy day of my Live.
Damn. I only got the game about 2 weeks ago, and on my third multi rolls (with SQ earnt from campaign) I got Mumma Raikou (5 star). Now I realise how lucky that actually was. Good video dude
Math tends to mess with me, because my mind imposes numbers really bad. I really enjoyed your input though. Me and a few of my friends had that question rolling around in our heads, thanks for video.
I got only 3 star servants when i try multi. But when i try single pulls... i got Nero and Altria Lancer from it So... single is better than multi i guess???
Not much of a mathematician but I know one thing you must teach me the way! You and the voice of saint Quartz are the teachers we never had but the ones we NEED!
Good points on the video, there is one small thing I would like to add, is how many people actually summon we know there are at least 2 mil people playing this game, of which lets say 1% do a multi roll in a banner that's still 20k so 1/4k isn't really implausible. Pretty sure the youtuber knows this but it's basically the law of large numbers and there are a lot of people playing the game, so I would still argue that 10x would be my choice. but everything else is as the video states.
I must say I am surprised a video like this exists, I love stuff backed by numbers and you explained this really well. Definitely checking out more of your videos.
Thank you, I'm happy to hear that. I would definitely recommend checking out the follow up to this video where I tested the idea with a bunch of rolls: th-cam.com/video/CbVBgEr0pM0/w-d-xo.html
Haha, yes you got me there. I am basing this off my anecdotal observations. I wish there was a large data set to analyze though, we could do some interesting things.
If you have the time, I definitely recommend checking out the follow up video where I tested some of this. I found out that some things are probably a bit different then I originally believed. th-cam.com/video/CbVBgEr0pM0/w-d-xo.html
Considering i just started a couple weeks ago, i'll take my chances :) haha.. interesting video btw... did not expect the math part... it was a good refresher
Unfortunately we have not found a way to increase the 1%, unless you count the guaranteed SSR Servants from those occasional one time banners that require paid quartz.
I've recently started doing only single rolls. I've gotten Gilgamesh, Edmond and Waver from single rolls so I think that's where my luck lies though I don't always get that lucky. Multi rolls rarely bring me what I want though there was that rare time when I've gotten Brynhildr and Francis Drake with multis. I've also gotten quite a few rare craft essences from single rolls.
Dude i was watching this video and i started thinking "following th logic in the nex roll i should get a Servant 4 ⭐ or +" and when i entered the game and threw me i gave a Servant 5 ⭐, i Give you my like and subscription
Well this is an aberration but during the Jalter event, I did 5 10-rolls and 28 tickets, got 2 jalters from 10-rolls, 2 jalters from tickets. Another time I did 4 ticket pulls and got 2 Jacks. So, I'm more inclined towards single-rolls.
Wtf serious!? That's insane! You lucky son of a gun haha. I have yet to pull a single 5☆. Not complaining though I have a few 4☆ servants and just recently pulled Nitocris so that made me happy. But wow I can't believe you got FOUR jalters on such a small amount of pulls. I bet there are tons of whales out there who spent close to $1000 just for one and they'd hate you if they knew how you got yours 😂
I think this video is still very much relevant. I started this game just recently, right at the end of 2020's Berserk Jeanne Summer event (I missed her). But I started to play with the sole intention of getting Iskandar. Was disheartened to find he was a limited servant, but figured I'd have time to save if that was the case. My timing for starting this game was both fortunate and unfortunate, because he showed up as a revival event WAY too soon. I spent all the free quartz I had and summon tickets to get him. Everything failed, even with the 10 pulls. I thought I wasn't going to get him... on my VERY LAST summon ticket I could possibly get during the event... Iskandar came to me. So yeah, I think this video is very relevant, and makes me question the value of actual 10 pulls outside of pure convenience, though personally I believe the rates are all a scam anyway and completely untrue.
I just started the game about 5 days ago, and did 10 single rolls on the Halloween 2020 summon, on my last roll I got Sitonai, my first 5 star. Then a day later, I did one single roll, and got Sitonai again!
I am years late but as an F2P I roll the moment I get 30 quartz regardless of banner because. Because I am stupidly confident with my luck, but so far all I got is Atalante after 3 ten pulls
"unless you're like me and you think the math is the fun part" Your f***ing tone of voice was telling me that from the very f***ing beginning - you're math freak... and I love it! xD
As a F2P I wish I watched this video beforehand, would've saved me so many quartz. That said I only started about a month ago so I have plenty more free quartz through campaign to get plus the events/etc. Defs going to single roll from now on. Thanks for the vid :)
Single is better TBH. I got Iskandar by pulling single pull on the last day of fate zero event. Perhaps I should pull Shuten on the last day I guess? ฅ'ω'ฅ
Not gonna lie, I thought this video was gonna take 10 min just to tell us that multi gives us a guaranteed 4 star. Damn was I wrong! Great video man, love how indepth you went by providing calculations.
Hahaha, I actually did a multi- roll which had nine 3 stars and the last card I pulled was a 4 star servant which was Atalante Alter. I found this very interesting when I watched this video because of the odds of it ever happening, so thank you for making my day.
Once i did a summon (only one) on Arjuna and Karna Rate up i just wanted to get some CEs and in the first roll with ticket i got Arjuna im so grateful to have him in my party
I've been pretty much conditioned by the game to avoid Ten-Rolls at all costs. I never got ANYTHING from Ten-Rolls whenever I saved for it. Meanwhile with Single Rolls, I got more 4*s than I know what to do with. I even got my Very First 5* Servant, and it was Iskandar, the Servant I even picked up the game in the first place for! It's like, Why would I _EVER_ do Multi Rolls when I literally just got my Dream Servant from Singles?!
Robbie Norris Thank you for finalising my decision to never Multi Roll (unless guaranteed 5*) ever again. I’m in the same boat as you, all my good shit is from Single pulls.
Same Hahahahahahha. I tried the multi-roll several times. Still no Iskandar. I just gave up and tried using single rolls whenever I had 3 quartz. After 2-3 tries I got him :) My first and only 5 star servant for now.
Well the 4* card and 1 servant guarantees are each only valid for a single card inside the ten cards of a multi, which means your boosted chances will revert back to normal once you have received your guaranteed card. The guaranteed golden card may increase the odds of getting a 5* servant to 5%, but you will only see that guaranteed card become a 5* servant once in twenty multi rolls (theoretically, anyway.) which would mean 600q in the game. The guaranteed servant card increases your chances to 2%, so its impact will be even less than the guaranteed golden card. The true advantage of a multi over singles is that a bare minimum is much better in a multi roll. Feel free to correct me if I made a miscalculation somewhere.
So far I’ve gotten 2 5* as well as 2 4* from singles. When I rolled for Ozymandias I did 7 multi rolls and got neither of the feature 4* servants, nor Ozy himself. All I got was the featured 3*s to NP5 and a lot of shit CEs. The only 5* servant I’ve ever gotten from a multi roll was Gilgamesh.
It depends a little bit on what you are trying to get. If you do two multi-rolls you might get more 4 star CEs and/or 3 star Servants that you would from single pulls. So if you're going to spend all of the quartz no matter what, that's the best way to go. If you're hoping to get one copy of a 5 star Servant and then quit, single rolling MIGHT save you a little quartz. You would be able to stop right away after you get it, instead of finishing all 10 rolls. With 20 single pulls you only have an 18.2% chance of getting a 5 star Servant though. This means you have more than an 81.8% chance of using all 60 quartz anyway.
Oh jeez thanks for the maths. Makes myself feel a lot better now. Been playing for like 1 year+ and I only have 1 5-star which is Mysterious Heroine X from the confirmed 5-star roll.
Check out the follow up video where I put these ideas to the test using data collected from a bunch of people's rolls. I'll admit the results were not what I expected... th-cam.com/video/CbVBgEr0pM0/w-d-xo.html
I got uber lucky got a 4 star servant then 5 star servant Francis drake back to back, but i feel the 10 pull is better
I just did 3 muilt rolls and got 7 Jing Ke and 6 Hassan of the Serenity? Do you I will adventy run out of those cards and start getting different ones? Or is there a unlimited number of them?
Should i roll now or should i wait for something??
Wait until one of the Servants you really want or need is available and roll then. It helps to save up for those opportunities.
All wrong. At the end of the day, the one servant you want is the one the game won't give you...
but Gilgamesh
Wrong..... i got tamamo no mae twice
Got gramps twice in two consecutive multis, flawed logic
i got gramps and i want him the most lol
I have Caster and Archer Gilgamesh..
FGO: a game which will help you learn about history, mythology, legends, maths and new curses to scream when you dont get the waifu you want
No
@@babidi1772 yes 😢
after losing 133 sq and 16 tickets to a jalter banner, this hits harder than ever
@@ghost_exe1 F
You always feel it when you waste 200+sq and not get a single SR.
I'll admit it: I'm not too much of a math wizard myself. But! I do think you deserve props for discussing this topic at all--and in a unique way by providing your interesting calculations.
The Voice of Saint Quartz i love how ur all over the place sq 😘
**How to determine Rolls**
**Busts out the college level Pre-calculus**
>Boi.
How do you pull a Hercules
estadistica, idiota
@@Bobbythundervideogamemaster900 You just do
@@Bobbythundervideogamemaster900 Reroll
@@peruanska4385 Agree with this guy! It´s not Calculus (integral, volumes, derivation etc... ) its Statistics.
I always get a 5 and 4 star in single roll but they are CEs...
I feel your pain
same here
Ahh the salts and tears
Tell me about it ...
Can we all get an f in the chat for him
I always roll at 1 am (Japan Time) because of Rin's Logic.
Does it end up helping?
Following Rin's logic, mine is at 8 on gmt+7
Jethro The Guy sometimes. Got Banana and Rama at 1 am
@@zarya_gmb I only roll when im at net cafe, Sherlock and Merlin come that way :v
No u are wrong, Rin's Theory work because at 02:00 am ur mana is at the highest peak, u are wrong assuming to follow Japan timelines
After being shafted 120 quartz without a 5star servant my theory is they like to see people die inside a little
Got 5* Drake after my first single roll
@@dualia-s74m got Jeanne and Drake on my 3 10x rolls
@@Zushikina143 yea drake is great. is my only ssr and she has been carrying me thru merica
@@dualia-s74m gods plan?
@@PutraRhm RNG god plan.
My recommendation is to stick with single roll, not because of math (this is gacha afterall) but the mentality that goes along with it... a 3x single roll = 9quartz...and 3xmulti roll = 90quartz, now imagine the worst case scenario where all you get is 4* CE from multi roll, that will be equivalent to three 3* from single roll
No matter how much quartz you have, multi roll can make you easily spend them in just few clicks.. But in Single roll, you feel the pain, every roll seems giving you hint how shitty your luck is, and you can stop prematurely. Calm down, and maybe roll it tomorrow,...
Changing the way i roll help me conserve my quartz and not fall into the gacha hell...if your luck is shit, multi doesnt help, i believe our luck fluctuate and always come unexpected..so dont play gacha like you were in casino with that "All In" mentality...throw a couple of quartz, set a limit, and move along when you didnt get it, sure you can do it using multi roll, but it doesnt work bcoz it all gone so fast, and you just go, ahhh fk it!!! spend it all.
No luck with multi as a F2p...So I guess Yolo.
I told myself to roll 2 times because I was close to 30 quartz, I ended up spending it all by accident
You do know your just doing the same thing no matter which you pull
That's actually sound advice. Comparing to casino, gambling it sure does put things into perspective. I'll follow your example.
@@MustProtectUwU42069 Its the same thing on paper, its the same exact rate, i'm talking about the mental pressure you put on doing multi roll vs single roll.
Ever since i change to my technique of doing FP roll -> swap to yolo, i get a lot of unnecessary break (ex: clearing storage, lvl up CE, selling silver card for mana prism)
All this extra task make me roll much longer that i should...i could clear 1000quartz in cless than 30mins when i do multi...
Try that when you doing FP > Single pull...it gonna take hours, and that help you mentally to cope with the situation.
During test....
(Math why!?!? Why is it so hard to solve your problem)
Using Math for game statistics....
(10^4...etc,...etc,....etc. And that's the probability of it happening)
Guys no one thinks that ur chances of rolling a 5 star goes up with multis. This is the 1 and only reason why I single roll. singles let u use quarts in intervals of 3. you can stop rolling once u get ur 5 star servant. with multis its intervals of 30. ur probably not gonna get ur 5 star servant on your last pull in a 10 summons. idk to me every quart counts so even saving 12 quarts is enough for me to roll singles
That's a great point that I didn't really mention. If the only thing you care about is getting a particular 5 star Servant and minimizing the amount of quartz it costs, single rolling is likely the efficient solution. In theory you'll get slightly worse CEs but that's probably worth it considering the amount of quartz you might end up saving, which can be anywhere between 0 and 27.
plus the odds of pulling a gold card is already 20% (2/10 cards) Although it is possible that you wont get a gold card in 10 singles, ur probably gioing to.
Regardless, great video
Ha! look at this guy, he actually gets 5* servants ever.
I only do multi rolls just to speed up time , sometimes my luck is just a gift from God , and some times it isnt , like my 3 first 5 stars where the 3 Altrias , each one in my first attempt at the spawn , Lancer , later got Archer twice in a row in multi rolls and last Saber in NeroFest when i was going for Nero Bride
Yorokobe Shounen
My man used a college leveled statistic calculation to calculate the chance of getting a waifu. Mad respect.
Fgo... Playing it allows me to say that I'm studying history and statistics :D
And Economics whaling is hard too.
I learn geo-culture from the singularities and lostbelts
@@VeritasNumquamPerit Ye. I also learn how to Increase my mental strength by Farming 100+ times in a row a few days ago by Doing Summer 4 Las Vegas event Stages…. Ugh
I would sign up for Waifu statistically analysis if it was offered at university.
Thank you for the breakdown. confidently rolled in singles and Just got Yang Qing, Emiya, Okita and the 5 star CE via 13 single rolls.
Congrats!
Me : I want astolfo!
Fate/GO : did you say Jeanne?
same but with Jack. I want Musashi...
Same with tomoe. I got chevalier
Same with Amakusa Shirou, got Archer of Inferno instead
This just happened again, still wanted astolfo but I got Francis Drake..
same with zhuge liang . I want merlin
All I know is that just about every 5 star Servant I've ever gotten has come from a ticket or a single pull, while 10-rolls are Unlimited Black Keys Works
playing for 3 weeks, got 66% of my 5* from 10-rolls, got rest 33% from free 5* ticket.
@@amai2307 man you really replied to my comment from 4 years ago? Honestly these days with the pity system in place I just do 10x rolls if it’s a character I want because I know I’ll eventually get it.
@@wererat42 I started to play 3 weeks ago. And there are tons of characters I want, so eventually isnt really what I need.
"I'd rather betray the multi-roll than letting the multi-roll betray me"
The complication with multi-roll is that the probability you need to calculate is conditional probability. Conditional probability happens when the events, which are the 10 rolls in every multi-roll, are not independent. There is guaranteed to be a 3 star servant and a 4 star card in a multi-roll and the presence of these certain events affects the probabilities of the rest 8 or 9 draws. So the listed probabilities cannot be used for reference in this case. There is a conditional probability formula to use, but we lack information on how exactly the drawing process is coded(can't get P(A and B) ). On the other hand, there is no reason for single rolls to be affected by other single rolls.
I have pulled 20 ssrs and at least 10 of them come from single rolls, 1 from lucky bag (CN server). Some of them even showed up when they are not rated up. My average rate is 2 to 3 SRs and 1 SSR for about every 140 quartzs.
Math will not help you. GACHA IS HELL!!
Oscar Espinoza GACHA IS BAD CIVILIZATION!!!!!
MY HELL IS BETTER THAN YOUR HEAVEN
I'll admit this did almost put me to sleep. But in that sense it was very much like any stats class I've attended XD. Nicely done in laying out the numbers.
As expected it doesn't make any real difference. Though I don't mind doing the multi-rolls. On the rare chance (or honestly just the one time) I got really lucky with a multi, it does add to the shock value to just see all those pulls lined up together. But I agree with the idea that if you want a servant badly and you've still got 3...then use them. Your odds won't be any worse.
Pull when you want to pull. The odds are low regardless so might as well take your shot.
Alexander Hamilton took his shot 🤷♂️
*When you finish watching this video, decide to do a 1 Pull using your last Summon Ticket (that you don't remember how you got), and get a 4 Star Servant*
i will do that right now and be back at you see if that works
Edit: did not work for me
@@deepprakashamin9129
I don't even remember what this was in reference to. Maybe Wu? Because I know I got her off my last Ticket at the time.
@@espurrseyes42 good for you man
*Gets Siegfried*
Ok
wanna hear something salty?
.
.
I try to pull okita souji and wasted 90 quartz and I never even got okita souji or any decent four stars. then here is my friend who has 11 quartz making a joke to me saying he could pull okita. THEN HE REALLY PULLED IT WITH JUST 3 QUARTZ!!! YES JUST 3 QUARTZZZ!! then he uses his remaining quartz on shinjuku banner. guess what? HE JUST PULLED AVENGER OF SHINJUKU IN SINGLE ROLL!! then here's me w/o any SSR wasted 90 quartz getting nothing while he used only 6 quartz to get both avenger of shinjuku and okita.
.
.
I can feel him putting salt on my wound.
I am genuinely very sorry for you.
it hurts
I'm ngl I'm kinda like that friend. My friend was jokingly teasing me and I was like ALRIGHT FUCK IT. I'm gonna use my bullshit luck to get enkidu. The next day I was using a summon ticket on his banner, I got ozymandias, instead. He still flipped.
Lol I got same avenger with 3 sq too xDDD
@@crazyplinto7895 Me too... Avenger Shinjuku seems...has been planned...
I wish there was more of an incentive to multi rolling other than a 3 star servant
The single greatest moment I've had in this game was getting 3 J-alters from a 10 pull little did I know 2 weeks later my phone would be stolen
Perfectly balance, as all things should be.
jk sorry for your loss
@@JesahsuKuristoh I had her at np5 and level 96 grail man I was pissed
@@erikjimenez5851 Transfer code?
Screen shot or didn’t happen
jk
@@erikjimenez5851 How'd you get your phone stolen anyways?
So, either way I as a ftp player get f*cked. Nice video btw
I know it's a little depressing, but that 1% chance does work out sometimes. I think the best bet is to save quartz for the really good banners and try to maximize your chance that the 1% ends up being one of the SSR Servants you really want. And if you're willing to spend just a little bit of money once a year, you can roll on the guaranteed 5 star banner we'll probably be getting for Thanksgiving again.
pretty much T_T
Sometimes a bit of luck is all it takes man, I am on my 5th month on play and I already got 3 SSRs. Vlad, Jeanne and Iskandar.
same i have both Jeannes, Jack and spooked by Arjuna. I still have 700 squartz for Illya
Marchera XIII I am not gonna be saving for anyone long term, too many people got burned with Jalter and Tamamo so it's best if I just play by the seat of my pants. :P
They should have made it an 11-draw for 30 quartz. I've seen it on other gacha games.
Dud how do I tell you this..
Late but Yorokobe.
JP server i think.
Bruh...
Well they did now
While watching this I decided I was just going to do single rolls with my 10 sq, and got tamamo-no-me during the 2020 new year banner. You are my new dad.
No 5 star pulls, but all the 4 star servants I pulled (3), all of them came from single pulls.
I hope they keep coming and bring some SSR friends soon.
Well for now they won't.
I'm saving for the Round Table Knights Banner.
Pulling randomly on banners, after 200+ free quartz wasted, taught me that I should hoard for some higher chances of getting good gold servants.
That one is objectively the best free banner I ever saw lol...very few gold (I think less than 10) FIXED (you can't get spooked) and most of them are very good, and the other couple of them is still good.
I'll mainly roll for the Alters and Saber Lancelot.
But yeah, Mordred, OG Saber and Lancer Artoria are very welcome to surprise me xD.
The others won't make me much happy but also not unsatisfied.
My quartz are ready. If I did the math correctly, I should have around 500 plus a good amount of tickets at that point.
Yeah, knocking most of the other SR and SSR Servants out of the pool is super helpful. Good luck! If you save that long it should turn out to be a pretty amazing roll. I'm really torn on that one though, because shortly after that we will finally see Merlin.
How many single summon pulls did you do?
At least 70, if not 100...
I used to think singles were bad since i only got 3 star ces but after seeing your vid i decided to throw some tickets at the osakabehime banner and got tamamo and elisabeth bathory with a few tickets , your videos are helping people even 2 years later ! good job
I multi rolled 550+ quartz for Abby and only ended up getting her with my last solo so I kinda prefer solos now
Ouch, that's a lot of quartz. I'm glad she showed up eventually.
Lol my summon of 5star
Yolo>>4
Tickets>>2
Multi>>4
RATE UP STILL A LIES!!!!
My 5 star summons:
Yolo>>0
Tickets>>0
Multi>>0
çwç
ouch
Elizabeth Bathory True one day, SSR will come to you. You most have hope about it and don't give up, 4star can be good use so...
Ouch, I know the 1% takes awhile sometimes. I'm always looking forward to the guaranteed SSR Servant around Thanksgiving.
Was scrolling through and read tons of comments saying they all got their 5 stars through singles; I had gotten Mordred through a random ticket myself, and I went "eh, might as well give it a try."
I got Scathach on my second roll.
Well...I didn't expect so much math, but tbh that form of explaining is awesome, simply straight forward!
EVERY SINGLE 5 STAR I HAVE PULLED CAME FROM A TICKET. EVERY.SINGLE.ONE. I have done multiple multi pulls and never pulled a 5 star servant ever. It’s a LIE.
Phillip Vang I got a Kaleidoscope on a single pull. I've tried at least 4 multi roll and only got Chevalier d'eon and bunch of CEs and 3 star servants. Still salty about my E-rank luck.
Phillip Vang I tried to get Astolfo in chaldea boys summon rate up
i only did 10x pulls and i got 2 Amakusa Shirou in the first 3 10x rolls
Its fun... For my work in the opposite way... Except for jeanne d arc, all my 5 star servants came from multi roll jajja
I got jeanne and Raikou on my first 10 roll after the tutorial in the Onigashima event in NA. RNG is the only thing that exists.
I've done 10 single pulls on multiple occasions. And i usually get 10 times 3* garbage, so I'd rather take the multi and get at least one 4* ce or servant.
holy cow, I randomly saw this in my feed and man you have grown in just two short years, keep going man!
A lot of effort put into this video 👍
The Gatcha Gods are ruthless, whimsical and never merciful.
I got Swimsuit Martha in my first pull of the summer event, then i got Orion and Mordred in the Story gacha. After that i never had luck again, i only get CEs and i hate it
The salt. Don't forget the salt.
You make my brain numb. I can't keep up. Thank you Math Wizard 5000
i remember seeing this and going "yeah sure totally" before pulling nightingale from a ticket
I'm a history man, so i don't really know about maths, but you explain quite well, so thanks.
Very good about probability explanation, honestly im still confused about the math part, but the way you explain it, i guess it's still in the scenario about the best and the worst possibilities outcomes
Its useful to note a "disadvantage to multi" that being that if you are targetting a single card, say Jalter, for the sake of the example, but only expect/want to get a single and no more than that, or another example, is that you only need the 5th copy of something to max it out, doing a multi ensures you spend all 30 SQ and more often than not, the drop that you expect does not happen on the very last card, on average you get in on the middle, meaning that instead of rolling say 5 summons and stopping there, you are already in for another 5 summons even if you dont need anything else, do I make myself clear?
Yes, that's a great point. If you are aiming for a single copy of a specific card you'll probably be able to stop sooner if you pull one at a time. You would theoretically save an average of 13.5 quartz per banner you roll on (averaging between 0 and 27 quartz saved).
Another good point. You have a 1% chance of pulling your first SSR on the first card. A 0.99% chance of pulling your first SSR on the second card. 0.9801% chance on the third card, and so on until 0.9135% on the 10th card (.99^9*.01). That means the average savings will actually be a BIT higher, because you have a SLIGHTLY better chance of pulling it earlier than later.
If you assume that we definitely get it somewhere in the 10 summons (eg if you keep pulling singles forever until you get the SSR) then the revised percentages become 10.46%, 10.35%, 10.25%... 9.55%. This means you'll save 27 quartz 10.46% of the time, 24 quartz 10.35% of the time... and in the end you actually save an average of 13.75 quartz, slightly more than the initial estimate :)
Charles L the only real effect the guaranteed cards happens when you roll 8 3* CE on a row and the very last 2 cards doesn't have the 3* CE cards on the summoning pool, which rarely happens (see the video)
You most likely save SQ on average by doing singles(if, and only if, what you expect to get is something very particular, if you're targeting something), pulling 10 3* CEs on a row is extremely unlikely, you would have to be crazy unlucky to roll those and "not save" by doing singles, trying to save SQ it's a bit of a gamble by itself, but one in wich the odds are (somewhat) on your favor
Helped me better my luck, thanks for the breakdown!
Nice vid. On this new event, I did a one and only 10x summon and I got the 5 star exclusive, 4 star emiya (archer), and a 4 star craft essence lol, guess I had good luck
EX RANK LUCK
Thank you for making this because literally the very next minute I did a Single role I got a five star king Arthur Pendragon
Mordred kicks my Butt in camelot, was thanksgiving, i need something to make me Fell better, so i decide to roll with ONLY 9 QUANTZ, in the First one a 3 STAR CE, i was not hoping to get anything in the First place, i Just find the sensantion to the gacha similar like a slot machine, got scathach in my 2 try, happy day of my Live.
Damn. I only got the game about 2 weeks ago, and on my third multi rolls (with SQ earnt from campaign) I got Mumma Raikou (5 star). Now I realise how lucky that actually was. Good video dude
I still think they have fun seeing us suffering.
Not one 4*/5* servants in 1 month, then two Quetzalcoatl in the same x10 roll...
Do you think DW even cares about us? they wont even update NA and add lostbelt thing
Math tends to mess with me, because my mind imposes numbers really bad. I really enjoyed your input though. Me and a few of my friends had that question rolling around in our heads, thanks for video.
I got only 3 star servants when i try multi. But when i try single pulls... i got Nero and Altria Lancer from it
So... single is better than multi i guess???
Thanks very much, this is really clear, best explanation of the maths behind it I've seen!
I love math even if I'm not good at it, but probabilities and statistics always seemed too much for me.
Thanks for making this video.
You're welcome, I hope it's interesting! Trying to apply it to something like this always helps me understand and remember things a bit more.
He makes mistake very early on in the video about expecting a 5 star every other multipull. throwing off the rest of the statistical analysis
Not much of a mathematician but I know one thing you must teach me the way! You and the voice of saint Quartz are the teachers we never had but the ones we NEED!
I just finished my entrance exam full of math now I'm watching a video that has another math... My head hurt
Good points on the video, there is one small thing I would like to add, is how many people actually summon we know there are at least 2 mil people playing this game, of which lets say 1% do a multi roll in a banner that's still 20k so 1/4k isn't really implausible. Pretty sure the youtuber knows this but it's basically the law of large numbers and there are a lot of people playing the game, so I would still argue that 10x would be my choice. but everything else is as the video states.
I got more SSR using single quartz than multi pulls.. 8 SSR still f2p btw
Me watching this just shows how low my luck is that I have to depend on statistics. Anyways, great video! You earned a new subscriber!
my luck is with single rolls. im a free quartz user. total of 9 ssr servant including np2. played for 200 days now.
Same but I have 10 ssr and never spent a dime
Dude....
Gatcha is like the ultimate topic for math combining nearly every single topic related to statistics..
See bois? Maths follows you everywhere
I had flashbacks to my 10th grade math class...
I must say I am surprised a video like this exists, I love stuff backed by numbers and you explained this really well. Definitely checking out more of your videos.
Thank you, I'm happy to hear that. I would definitely recommend checking out the follow up to this video where I tested the idea with a bunch of rolls: th-cam.com/video/CbVBgEr0pM0/w-d-xo.html
“Emperical evidence I’ve seen.”
So anecdotal evidence?
(I kid. Nice vid, quite concise given the subject.)
Haha, yes you got me there. I am basing this off my anecdotal observations. I wish there was a large data set to analyze though, we could do some interesting things.
This is quite interesting and it's good to know how this works.
If you have the time, I definitely recommend checking out the follow up video where I tested some of this. I found out that some things are probably a bit different then I originally believed. th-cam.com/video/CbVBgEr0pM0/w-d-xo.html
just subscribed beacuse of the math(not that the video was bad it was AWESOME but i love math).
well his math is incorrect very early in the video. So I feel it throws off his analysis.
Considering i just started a couple weeks ago, i'll take my chances :) haha.. interesting video btw... did not expect the math part... it was a good refresher
This Gacha game is BAD CIVILIZATION!!
Hey! Thanks for the guides, you have +1 subscriber =) I wish the channel prosperity and good luck to all in summon!
Doesn't change the 1% chance though
Unfortunately we have not found a way to increase the 1%, unless you count the guaranteed SSR Servants from those occasional one time banners that require paid quartz.
now you've quantified exactly how lucky i was to roll my few 4* every time i 10-rolled, thanks
I've recently started doing only single rolls. I've gotten Gilgamesh, Edmond and Waver from single rolls so I think that's where my luck lies though I don't always get that lucky. Multi rolls rarely bring me what I want though there was that rare time when I've gotten Brynhildr and Francis Drake with multis. I've also gotten quite a few rare craft essences from single rolls.
Tips: Never bring math to a game where luck is the number one factor. XD
Nice video btw, better than any math class i've attended
Kirigaya Kun but what if you brought the math that calculates luck?
Dude i was watching this video and i started thinking "following th logic in the nex roll i should get a Servant 4 ⭐ or +" and when i entered the game and threw me i gave a Servant 5 ⭐, i Give you my like and subscription
Well this is an aberration but during the Jalter event, I did 5 10-rolls and 28 tickets, got 2 jalters from 10-rolls, 2 jalters from tickets. Another time I did 4 ticket pulls and got 2 Jacks. So, I'm more inclined towards single-rolls.
Wow, congratulations! I'm jealous of the Jacks especially, I consistently fail to roll her every time :(
you're an outlier who I feel super salty and jealous about
Wtf serious!? That's insane! You lucky son of a gun haha. I have yet to pull a single 5☆. Not complaining though I have a few 4☆ servants and just recently pulled Nitocris so that made me happy. But wow I can't believe you got FOUR jalters on such a small amount of pulls. I bet there are tons of whales out there who spent close to $1000 just for one and they'd hate you if they knew how you got yours 😂
I think this video is still very much relevant. I started this game just recently, right at the end of 2020's Berserk Jeanne Summer event (I missed her). But I started to play with the sole intention of getting Iskandar. Was disheartened to find he was a limited servant, but figured I'd have time to save if that was the case. My timing for starting this game was both fortunate and unfortunate, because he showed up as a revival event WAY too soon. I spent all the free quartz I had and summon tickets to get him. Everything failed, even with the 10 pulls. I thought I wasn't going to get him... on my VERY LAST summon ticket I could possibly get during the event... Iskandar came to me. So yeah, I think this video is very relevant, and makes me question the value of actual 10 pulls outside of pure convenience, though personally I believe the rates are all a scam anyway and completely untrue.
I just started the game about 5 days ago, and did 10 single rolls on the Halloween 2020 summon, on my last roll I got Sitonai, my first 5 star. Then a day later, I did one single roll, and got Sitonai again!
@@d0d0b1rd Nice!! May she prove her worth in due time for you friend.
I use quartz for summoning only if I have a choice in the matter
Me too
I am years late but as an F2P I roll the moment I get 30 quartz regardless of banner because. Because I am stupidly confident with my luck, but so far all I got is Atalante after 3 ten pulls
Only 5☆ I have is Nightingale and that was a yolo roll with a ticket
Four OverZero I've got Sangzang recently by a ticket, while my multi summon was trashy as hell.
Side note: I started some days ago.
Thalia Okamura I'll add you if you'd like.
Four OverZero thanks.
009,754,337 is my ID.
Thalia Okamura My name's Gaiseric, I added you lol
Same, got my tamamo no Mae with a ticket
"unless you're like me and you think the math is the fun part"
Your f***ing tone of voice was telling me that from the very f***ing beginning - you're math freak... and I love it! xD
Also all that probability operation with P(A), P(B) and stuff gave me weird mathematical boner
The point of 10 rolls are the EXCITEMENT
True, I enjoy watching them more :)
And then the disappointment
Lol no there’s more anticipation with single pulls and it makes ur rolling last longer which gives you more hope
The king of sparta is very proud of you good sir
lol my only 5 stars sherlock and merlin i got from single summon
I hate you
I despise you
I dislike you
As a F2P I wish I watched this video beforehand, would've saved me so many quartz. That said I only started about a month ago so I have plenty more free quartz through campaign to get plus the events/etc. Defs going to single roll from now on. Thanks for the vid :)
Single is better TBH.
I got Iskandar by pulling single pull on the last day of fate zero event.
Perhaps I should pull Shuten on the last day I guess? ฅ'ω'ฅ
Good luck on the last day!
Not gonna lie, I thought this video was gonna take 10 min just to tell us that multi gives us a guaranteed 4 star. Damn was I wrong! Great video man, love how indepth you went by providing calculations.
Just pulled Caster Gil and Enkidu almost one after the other today through single pulling. After weeks of garbage by multi
Same, got lancer Medusa from a multi. Then got Quetzalcoatl using my last 3 sq
wtf
Hahaha, I actually did a multi- roll which had nine 3 stars and the last card I pulled was a 4 star servant which was Atalante Alter. I found this very interesting when I watched this video because of the odds of it ever happening, so thank you for making my day.
Ayy, at least multi-rolling helped me get my NP 5 Gilles De Rais (Saber).
Once i did a summon (only one) on Arjuna and Karna Rate up
i just wanted to get some CEs and in the first roll with ticket i got Arjuna im so grateful to have him in my party
WORLD'S GREATEST MAOU It happened to me, but with Gilgamesh.
I've been pretty much conditioned by the game to avoid Ten-Rolls at all costs.
I never got ANYTHING from Ten-Rolls whenever I saved for it. Meanwhile with Single Rolls, I got more 4*s than I know what to do with. I even got my Very First 5* Servant, and it was Iskandar, the Servant I even picked up the game in the first place for!
It's like, Why would I _EVER_ do Multi Rolls when I literally just got my Dream Servant from Singles?!
Congrats on the King of Conquerors!
FGO Tips
Thanks.
Robbie Norris Thank you for finalising my decision to never Multi Roll (unless guaranteed 5*) ever again. I’m in the same boat as you, all my good shit is from Single pulls.
Same Hahahahahahha. I tried the multi-roll several times. Still no Iskandar. I just gave up and tried using single rolls whenever I had 3 quartz. After 2-3 tries I got him :) My first and only 5 star servant for now.
Man didn't include the fact that god wants us to suffer in his equations
Pulled a 5* Floof Tail on my first (and only) multi roll... come at me 100% statistics
Pulled Drake single roll after tutorial
Well the 4* card and 1 servant guarantees are each only valid for a single card inside the ten cards of a multi, which means your boosted chances will revert back to normal once you have received your guaranteed card. The guaranteed golden card may increase the odds of getting a 5* servant to 5%, but you will only see that guaranteed card become a 5* servant once in twenty multi rolls (theoretically, anyway.) which would mean 600q in the game. The guaranteed servant card increases your chances to 2%, so its impact will be even less than the guaranteed golden card. The true advantage of a multi over singles is that a bare minimum is much better in a multi roll.
Feel free to correct me if I made a miscalculation somewhere.
I just learned this in class before watching this lmao
So far I’ve gotten 2 5* as well as 2 4* from singles. When I rolled for Ozymandias I did 7 multi rolls and got neither of the feature 4* servants, nor Ozy himself. All I got was the featured 3*s to NP5 and a lot of shit CEs. The only 5* servant I’ve ever gotten from a multi roll was Gilgamesh.
I found it interesting AND boring at the same time! 🤣🤣🤣 Nice video.
That was very useful, thank you. I'm new to the game and trying to see what I should be doing
So let's say I have 60 sq what do you think I should do ? And your video is great and you are great at math
It depends a little bit on what you are trying to get. If you do two multi-rolls you might get more 4 star CEs and/or 3 star Servants that you would from single pulls. So if you're going to spend all of the quartz no matter what, that's the best way to go. If you're hoping to get one copy of a 5 star Servant and then quit, single rolling MIGHT save you a little quartz. You would be able to stop right away after you get it, instead of finishing all 10 rolls. With 20 single pulls you only have an 18.2% chance of getting a 5 star Servant though. This means you have more than an 81.8% chance of using all 60 quartz anyway.
FGO Tips that mean multiply roll because I want to spend all may sq thanks man
Oh jeez thanks for the maths. Makes myself feel a lot better now. Been playing for like 1 year+ and I only have 1 5-star which is Mysterious Heroine X from the confirmed 5-star roll.
When did they start adding latin to math? It's like he is trying to speak words I just know it.