Hey everyone, I re-uploaded this episode because the original version described seppuku in a way that got it age restricted. US high schools already trust students to learn about kamikazes and seppuku. History contains some bad things! I don’t think TH-cam endorses hiding this, and I hope they won't this time!
@@TW--- Haha nah, not to say it was inconvenient! Only whining TH-cam is silly, that as a grown adult you have to select consciously to watch content that even recognizes self-exiting.
@@TW--- The pain mspain must have went through. We should set up a Gofund acct. to get em back on their feet. I had to click permission on the 1st upload too, now I'll probably be outta work for a year to deal with the trauma. I literally had to use my FINGER to touch another button..my finger for goodness sake! HELP!!! I'm being "finger abused". It hurts...its hurts man!!
She is also a great communicator, she’s able to relay that historical knowledge in a way that even a layman like myself can absorb and retain and that is a remarkable skill.
I love these lectures because they talk a lot about the cultural and political reasons for the military approach of the Axis powers and why that led to failure, instead of just listing the mistakes that lost them the war. There's so often people going "well the germans/japanese could have won WW2 if they just did X or didn't do Y" but that kind of thinking ignores the reasons that led them to make those decisions, and so the path that would lead them to victory isn't a matter of just not making certain decisions but would require a change in the underlying social structure that would make people choose those decisions.
One of the things in your line of questioning about why the Japanese go ahead with the attack on Pearl Harbor is that it forgets Japanese military success using similar opening gambits before. Particularly in the Russo-Japanese war, Japan is able to launch a surprise attack that cripples their opponent (Russia) who is put in an untenable tactical/operational situation which eventually leads to a negotiated peace favorable to Japan. What the Japanese failed to understand is that the US did not have the other immediate concerns that would make such a settlement palatable to the US. They were essentially running a playbook that had worked very well for them for the past 50 or so years and didn't understand how the US would react differently.
to add to your thought, there goal was truly to get America to plea to Japan and give them there foreign trade back. gas, crude, coal, or anything to keep the industrial war machine going but, Japan never had a chance to truly harm the American homeland or any of it infrastructure. what's the point of sinking half are west fleet when they couldn't confirm the destruction of it... in one year over half were fixed, by the end of war all but 2 ships were fixed...
I don’t fully agree with your point. The Japanese military obsessive government was not totally ignorant about the risk filled military actions that they had decided to embark upon. The military leader who had conceived the strategy of attacking Pearl Harbor to achieve a quick knockout blow was also very clear and vocal about his cautionary stance in regard to the only possible way to defeat the American juggernaut. He also prophetically stated that to attack Pearl Harbor would be “awakening the sleeping giant” of the American people. He also stated that the Japanese military must be able to defeat the American forces in less than 6 months if ever to achieve success. He was very correct in his advice to the governing military body, so they were fully knowledgeable and chose to arrogantly ignore the clear warning given to them by their own trusted military leader. So how and why did Yamamoto so confidently make his warning about this decision to foolishly attack a nation larger and more resource enriched? He had lived in the USA for years and had come to understand and very much respected the mindset of the American people that his own government dispelled as weak pleasure seekers
You raise a good point with the Russo-Japanese War. It's not that crazy to look at how the Russian Tzarist military was a basket case, and figure that the Americans could be all bark, no bite. Yeah, they COULD be an economic juggenaught, but so COULD the Russians. Instead, the Russians lost their Pacific Fleet, then hobbled the Baltic Fleet ponderously to the other side of the world, which the Japanese promptly obliterated. Perhaps the Americans get punched at Pearl Harbor, and being arrogant Westerners, then send a ponderous fleet to reclaim the Philippines. That fleet gets smoked, America doesn't really think of the Philippines as a part of itself, and Japan can offer terms that Americans can accept, especially now that they don't "need" American oil so much.
@@dennishealy3305this is a very good addition to the overall point here- and Dr. Paine talked at length about this. While I do not know what internal Japanese estimations of success were for prior opening gambits, I do know, thanks to this wonderful lecture/interview, that more than one prominent member of the Japanese high command understood the long odds they were facing. It was not going to be easy, but a degree of optimism dwelt in the hearts of said command and the call to attack was made. And the rest is history, so passionately and carefully conveyed here in this wonderful TH-cam video. Thanks @Dwarkesh, you’re the man.
She's an effective and clear communicator which I love. And she doesn't sugarcoat things or make it into something that is not. I love how well researched she is as well obviously it's her job I get that but it's just so deep.
Clever presentation. One comment on Buddhism. The first noble truth is that existence is Dukkha which is usually translated as 'suffering' but a better rendering would be dissatisfaction based on the observation that everything is impermanent and changing. A subtle but important distinction.
It might be but it's still pessimistic. I knew of that fact but it didn't take away from her points. Fun fact. The academic philosophy of pessimism is primarily inspired by Buddhism.
I don't know if you're playing devil's advocate or not, but I think the Q+A time showed too much hubris and optimism of human nature; a tendency that is unfortunately common to our time. All the questions about "what didn't they know", or "would this decision change outcomes" miss the mark. People in earlier times weren't dumber or less enlightened than us. We're not morally superior. I loved listening to Professor Paine talk as she really understood this. The value in looking at these things is not to figure out why they don't think like us because we obviously wouldn't get into these messes; the point is that we WILL get into these messes and we need to be prepared to make the best decision in a list of horrible decisions.
Thank you so much for these interviews Dwarkesh Patel, I also enjoyed you having asianometry on your show, and I would like to see him as a guest again, and/or Dylan Patel!
1:23:08 It should be clarified that Smoot-Hawley was not an oil embargo. It had tariffs on a lot of goods especially food. This resulted in a massive trade war and a general breakdown in international trade. Sarah’s position is that Japan then decided that they need to invade Manchuria to access resources, especially food. As a result of Japan’s invasion of Manchuria, the US placed an oil embargo on Japan. It’s important to keep this series of events straight because it can be confusing.
She seems to suggest that that the embargo makes the invasion of Manchuria legitimate and her idea that Japan invaded China for the purpose of warding off communism and stabilizing China are ridiculous.
"As a result of Japan’s invasion of Manchuria, the US placed an oil embargo on Japan." The oil embargo was a reaction to the Japanese occupation of French Indochina, not Manchuria.
@@WongPeter-tx7qq I font think she ever argues for legitimacy, in general she doesn't focus a lot on the morality of various actions taken in war. At one point he tries to say something about war being more civilized in recent times and she rejects that immediately. My understanding of her point isn't that the tariffs gave Japan some right to invade Manchuria, but rather that they were a failure on the part of the United States to consider the implications of their choice on the wider world. It doesn't make Japans actions more moral or justified, but it was still an incident that she argues led Japan to make the decisions that it did.
@@WongPeter-tx7qqshe’s not saying this is the “justified cause” she’s explaining the thinking of the leadership who go on to make those decisions. If the leadership had an isolationist bent they maybe could have closed Japan off (as it was during edo period) but that was unlikely the islands were not self sufficient at that point.
She said Japan invaded China to ward off communism! The communist part in China at that time was insignificant and the KMT was in the process of finishing it prior to Japan started the 2nd invasion. Why dragged communism into it when colonialism was still high in that period of time. Japan had colonized Korea and wanted to do the same in China. That has nothing to do with warding off communism.
So with TH-cam it isn’t that it is “inappropriate” it is that it isn’t something advertisers want their ad next to. We need to be careful to not confuse adsense censorship algorithms with a moral actor and not a machine seeking profit above all else.
Missionaries. There were thousands of American missionaries in China. In the 1920s and 1930s American school children would go door to door collecting donations for the missions in China. During this period Shanghai was the second largest US diplomatic mission after London. Entire boatloads of hundreds of missionaries would arrive. The US build schools, hospitals, water treatment plants, etc. Some of China's top universities and hospitals today have roots in these American efforts. Americans felt an extraordinary closeness to Chinese people. The "Good Earth" novel about the struggles of Chinese peasants was the bestselling novel in the US in 1931 and 1932. Madame Chiang (Soong Mei-ling) appeared on the cover of "Time" magazine in 1941 and 1937. Americans loved China.
It helped that Madam Chiang spoke English with a American Southern accent that she acquired while studying in the US, nowhere else in the world had that kind of accent so that endeared her to the American people more.
Thought provoking thanks. What also struck me is Sarah Paine’s deep absorption of the East philosophy into her own way of thinking - descending the “simple, complex, simple, complex etc” which is what one Chinese wise man (Wang?!) said of delving into problems.
You get a glimpse into the depth of her understanding when she gestures that while other cultures of Asia share some norms they have their own underpinnings
9:45 If Japan 🇯🇵 Bushido has 3 pillars: Buddhism, Shinto, Confucianism, would it be fair to say China 🇨🇳 three pillars are: Buddhism, Taoism, Confucianism?
I would say China has never had anything that's analogous to Bushido. There was never a established warrior class like the Samurai & going into the 20th century the ROC was already an officially secular state. Realistically the kind of dutiful adherence to an ideology wasn't a thing until communism.
#1 is Legalism, then Confucianism which is more the social side, Buddhism mixed with folk beliefs and some Taoism is on the aesthetic and spiritual side.
The previous video was unfortunately age-restricted due to the discussion of seppuku. We've removed about a minute from this version, but you can still find the uncut version on all the other platforms!
Also, Sarah, one more question the battle of cannae the actual logistics of killing that many people with swords,bows and arrows ,shields ,clubs, the pure logistics even if you use the lowest possible numbers is absolutely horrifying Hannibal‘s army would’ve never been the same from a psychological point, also Romans that survived and had watched the carnage or at least as much as they could see through the fog and heard must’ve completely changed them forever in my opinion it was explains why Hannibal‘s army couldn’t finish the job and also why the Romans were so brutal in their retaliation thank you so much for everything you do. Your mind works in such a beautiful way.❤
Japanese are certified war deniers. Part of the reasons are discussed indirectly in lecture itself. Pretty sure this kind of videos are not recommended by algo in Japan. Also it's in English
I tried to read Musahi"s book on tactics called The Five Rings. It's very Japanese culturally and difficult to pin down. Musashi is venerated because he fought many duels and because his fierce surprise attacks was victorious. There is a story where he fought a prince and his body guard using only a wooden sword. These attacks emphasized fierceness and timing as the cause for the victory. Musahi also equates warfare with other pursuits such as art, music and poetry all which rely on perfect timing to be successful. He believed that a small dedicated force could defeat a larger force if timing and choice of battle filed was on the attacker's side.
the concept of "will power" is called 精神論 in japanese. its a way to force or coarse subordinates to do impossible tasks. a very useful concept for superiors in any organization rooted in seniority and confucianism. i think modernization and democracy turned it into some kind of elitism. not necessarily unique to japan, but all over east asia. and still alive, even in pop culture, from "senpai" anime to worshiping Kpop idols . japanese military just used it as a tool. it was the earliest way to convince japanese was "bushido" ,because everyone farm boy want to be samurai, the ultimate elit in the eyes Japanese commoners.
i liked dwarkesh asked the next question, and pushed the ideas further. The thing about the sanctions and what's the end game if it does not change minds it just makes people poor, great one!
Excellent presentation. I watched the video on Admiral Ugaki's diary and your explanation matches him. Another influence I noticed was the Russo-Japanese war and its outcome. Japan's sneak attack destroyed Russia's Pacific Fleet. Then Japan destroyed the rest of Russia's Fleet. The war ended with diplomacy This scenario is what Japan wanted in WW2. Admiral Ugaki kept looking for a decisive battle that would bring the USA to the negotiating table and end the war. Never happened.
Sarah Paine's lectures are very interesting and I appreciate that I was able to discover her through Mr. Patel. Unfortunately the interview portions come off as an adult having a discussion with an intelligent for their age, but naive child. The Japanese civilian government didn't control the army enough to prevent the invasion of Manchuria, how do you imagine they would be able to force the army to stop the war in China after 100s of thousands in military casualties? Half-court tennis as Mrs. Paine would call it.
If you're going to use time codes, 0:00 is not "Lecture begins", it's "Highlights". 0:45 is "Lecture begins" For the people who want to avoid duplicate watching it's much appreciated if you have a way to know when to skip ahead to.
042.00 Hot Washes? It's called an AAR (after action review).. They ask what went went well, and what did not go well.. Everyone, even an E-1 private is encouraged to speak freely.
New to the channel, been hoovering up interviews at pace though... If anyone has any recommendations of their favourites, I'd be all ears... Especially if they use history to teach current geopolitics like Sarah does
Amazing lecture by Prof Paine but GOOD LORD those Q&A prompts were mind-numbing. 🙄 It’s like each one was specifically formulated to be as detached from the very basic realities of human interaction as possible. “I think the war could’ve been averted if these two groups of people, from vastly different cultures, with vastly different values, and speaking vastly different languages, would’ve simply communicated better.” 😐 uhhh yea. There’s like 200,000+ years of human history full of violence that could’ve been avoided had we been capable of clearer communication at the time. I may be wrong, but something about that trend leads me to believe you miiiight not be the first person to notice better alternative decisions in hindsight...and since the ones before you clearly didn’t manage to make humanity any less violent with such *grand* revelations, our prospects for the next 250,000 years aren’t looking any less bloody than the first. Thankfully, people like Prof. Paine exist. We *clearly* need more educators encouraging realistic analysis if a person can be THIS confused by the nature of their own species.
The oil embargo for Japan is raised with regards to WW2, but the fact is the embargo was only imposed after Japan occupied S. Indochina, in August 1941. The United States was already quite unhappy about Japan occupying Tonkin in N. Indochina in September 1940.
Why does this guy always ask some variation of “what could the US have done differently to avoided conflict with expansionist fascist?” Like, probably nothing, my guy.
Patel needs to slow down and get a better grip on the material, the cultures being examined and the chronologies. Then again he is young and sounds at times like he just graduated from college. I trust he will mature as an interviewer. Sarah Paine is a phenomenally candid, intelligent and articulate academic.
Another detail. Masanobu Tsuji was the planner of the SE Asia campaign. Germany had breeched its agreement with Japan that it would not go to war against the Soviet Union without coordinating. Japan had been defeated by the Soviet Union in the late 1930s. The military viewed the options and concluded that unless it participated, the Germans would lose. However, Japan did not have enough resources to respond. The initial options were to either take years to build up the Japanese exploitation of Manchuria (conducted by the grandfather of the former JApanese prime minister who was assassinated a few years ago) or to take resources in SE Asia. It was decided at the very last minute to do the SE Asia campaign. The Japanese army from Manchuria and deployed it to SE Asia on bicycles. Where landing craft were to be used, there was no practice, but cartoon leaflets were handed out to the enlisted men. The US had a plan. Bombers based in the Philippines would destroy the Japanese base on Formosa from whence supplies were being sent in 1940 support the Japanese occupation of Vietnam. MacArthur went to a party on the evening of the attack on Pearl Harbor and there was no second in command. In 2024, the equivalent would be the Secretary of Defense disappearing for a while without his second in command or the White House being told where he was. So the air fleet was destroyed the next day. Bushido Code. Maresuke Nogi was the celebrated general from the War of 1905. When he returned to Japan, he asked permission to commit suicide. The Emperor Meji refused permission and said he could do it only after the emperor died. General Nogi was haunted by the deaths of his troops. He immediately committed suicide with his wife after the Emperor died. He didn't do it because of some concept that when the boss died, you followed.
57:30 "all this bushido moral stuff" "how does it square with the behavior" - this is such a painfully worded question. some thoughts: In bushido, surrender is cowardly and a coward is the worst thing you can be. The way western war the idea of 'retiring' and perhaps trading your officers for large bounties and stopping for midday tea etc was a European way of fighting war which had evolved over time. A time Japan wasn't interacting with the world. As Sarah mentioned, to be a good warrior you needed to accomplish the task or if you didn't you should die trying. When you surrender you're not trying hard enough. Building on Dan Carlin's idea Japan's last major wars were all domestic wars and this is how they were fought, you slaughtered everyone and took their women and children maybe. They missed out on the mediating influences and relative contemporary way of war that was common in Europe. They emerged essentially from the 18th century into the 20th century with weapons and continued making war the way they had done internally prior to that. Japanese Buddhism, like bushido, was co-opted for the governments aims. The emperor, who is a deity, or at least descended from one, is telling you to protect the homeland/fight enemies etc. Therefore they're "right", the rest is simply noble action to accomplish an outcome. Buddhist practitioners would say this is not true Buddhism, however in Japan many of the Buddhist leaders encouraged the national cause (as did others). Specifically to 'defend the dharma" (righteousness). Using Zizek's example, in righteousness, you are not swinging the sword and killing someone, they are falling onto a sword you are holding- you are an observer of this righteous action. Some scholars of bushido may be able to say this was a co-opting of bushido.. but I will leave that to them as I'm no expert just adding some speculation which viewers may find interesting.
Kinda misunderstands 4 noble truths: Suffering is inevitable, but suffering can be ended by right action (8 fold path) and detachment (NOT indifference!) To exist IS to suffer, but WHY and to WHAT EXTENT are Choices and yeah with perfect equanimity you escape just about all suffering.
59:00 Often, if a Japanese person is "supposed to" be in a position of power over you (e.g., aforementioned prison guard) and you look them in the eye, the first thing they will scream at you after they take a breath after a tirade (or pummeling) is, "What are you looking at?!" (なんだその目は!) And it does not matter if they're completely wrong, unjust, tyrannical, etc., they're going to say it because they have assumed power over you, they're going to use it, and how dare you defy the Japanese order of things by looking someone higher up than you in the eyes. This part of the hierarchical society has survived to this day and it is part and parcel of the bullying and abusive dynamics in Japanese society.
Great lecture, and although I don't fully agree with Professor Paine, I still consider it extremely valuable and important. My comments mainly concern: 1. Using the word "Russia" to refer to the Soviet Union, which is a misnomer. 2. Regarding the declassification of files. Declassification of documents about JFKjr or others have no impact on international relations. On the other side, documents from the conference in Tehran (where the post-war division of the world and giving half of Europe to the Soviets) or even those regarding the battleship USS Maine in the Havana port will never be declassified, because it would/could put the USA in a very bad light.. 3. The third issue is related to the latter, i.e. the fact that Americans want to deal with everything legally on the international arena. Now maybe yes, but the issue of the outbreak of the American-Spanish war shows that this is a far-fetched statement and, in addition, the USA was/is able to do sacrifices to achieve its goals. 4. I am also a supporter of sanctions, but I realize that sanctions only apply to countries that are recipients of goods. In the case of Russia, which is a producer and supplier (for some countries the only one) of goods, from raw materials, through mining, military or nuclear technology to food, which is also economically linked to countries that may less or officially ignore sanctions, such sanctions will have only minimal effect. 5. Regarding the previous lecture and the fact that China may want to attack Russia now to take advantage of its involvement in the West and Africa to occupy part of Siberia - the Chinese are not stupid and know that they must first create together with Russia and other countries such as, for example, Iran and North Korea, an alliance that will allow them to defeat the USA (and it's allies), because without it the Americans could change their policy in an instant and start supporting the Russians attacked by China, which would end for China just as World War II ended for the Germans. 6. As to Germans as great US supporters - they are not. In the last 30 or so years Germany, just like France, is doing everything to limit American influence in Europe and the Middle East and, for its own benefits, is able to cooperate with US enemies, such as Russia or China, to achieve its own goals. Greetings from Suwałki, Poland. I am looking forward to the third lecture and conversation.
Hi Dwarkesh, I not sure why you keep probing alternative scenarios where US avert involvement in WW2 at the 1:10:00- 1:25:00. Striving for peace at ALL cost is not always the preferred path. Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany had incompatible outlook from other world powers and sought to impose their own vision at the expense of others, definition of a zero-sum game. Negotiating with the Japanese may avert war in the short term by agreeing to their dismemberment of China and no oil embargo. But that just strengthen their long term position to challenge US again with a stronger hand and does nothing to deter future aggression. War is horrifying, but it is also one of the most definitive coercive instrument against your opponent. I am not sure any of us would want to live in a world where US remained in detente with imperial japan and allowed their militarism ideology to entrench for decades in East Asia.
My great grandfather fought in ww1 and ww2. mons, somme, burma. I never met him but i'd love to know more about what his unit did. Sometimes I wonder if there are any veterans out there still that may have known him or fought alongside him.
@@derbybOyzZ they are not many my grandfather is the last of this generation. It's complicated because my grandfather for example was illiterate and his memory is failing. Most of his documents are gone he only has medals a tin cup and plate given to him at the end of the war
It's insane to me that the naval arm of a nation's military could (or even would) hide the fact that they lost ONE THIRD of their aircraft carriers. Bushido or not, at some point you have to know that what you're doing will harm Japan long-term.
Hey everyone, I re-uploaded this episode because the original version described seppuku in a way that got it age restricted.
US high schools already trust students to learn about kamikazes and seppuku.
History contains some bad things! I don’t think TH-cam endorses hiding this, and I hope they won't this time!
Yeah! I downloaded and found hours later I has to click permission to watch. Really silly.
@@mspaint93Gosh! I sure hope you weren't incredibly inconvenienced by having to tap another button.
@@TW--- Haha nah, not to say it was inconvenient! Only whining TH-cam is silly, that as a grown adult you have to select consciously to watch content that even recognizes self-exiting.
@@TW--- Gosh! that took a turn …
@@TW--- The pain mspain must have went through. We should set up a Gofund acct. to get em back on their feet. I had to click permission on the 1st upload too, now I'll probably be outta work for a year to deal with the trauma. I literally had to use my FINGER to touch another button..my finger for goodness sake! HELP!!! I'm being "finger abused". It hurts...its hurts man!!
She has come to my attention about 3 or 4 days ago and I can't stop watching her. She is so knowledgeable about history. I love listening to her.
Sarah CM Paine and Stephen Kotkin - outstanding scholars.
She’s fantastic at getting to root causes and quickly
She is also a great communicator, she’s able to relay that historical knowledge in a way that even a layman like myself can absorb and retain and that is a remarkable skill.
I love these lectures because they talk a lot about the cultural and political reasons for the military approach of the Axis powers and why that led to failure, instead of just listing the mistakes that lost them the war. There's so often people going "well the germans/japanese could have won WW2 if they just did X or didn't do Y" but that kind of thinking ignores the reasons that led them to make those decisions, and so the path that would lead them to victory isn't a matter of just not making certain decisions but would require a change in the underlying social structure that would make people choose those decisions.
I’ll never get enough of Sarah Paine.
I am a huge fan of Sarah Paine's lectures and Q+A!! She is brilliant!!
One of the things in your line of questioning about why the Japanese go ahead with the attack on Pearl Harbor is that it forgets Japanese military success using similar opening gambits before. Particularly in the Russo-Japanese war, Japan is able to launch a surprise attack that cripples their opponent (Russia) who is put in an untenable tactical/operational situation which eventually leads to a negotiated peace favorable to Japan. What the Japanese failed to understand is that the US did not have the other immediate concerns that would make such a settlement palatable to the US. They were essentially running a playbook that had worked very well for them for the past 50 or so years and didn't understand how the US would react differently.
to add to your thought, there goal was truly to get America to plea to Japan and give them there foreign trade back. gas, crude, coal, or anything to keep the industrial war machine going
but, Japan never had a chance to truly harm the American homeland or any of it infrastructure. what's the point of sinking half are west fleet when they couldn't confirm the destruction of it... in one year over half were fixed, by the end of war all but 2 ships were fixed...
I don’t fully agree with your point. The Japanese military obsessive government was not totally ignorant about the risk filled military actions that they had decided to embark upon. The military leader who had conceived the strategy of attacking Pearl Harbor to achieve a quick knockout blow was also very clear and vocal about his cautionary stance in regard to the only possible way to defeat the American juggernaut. He also prophetically stated that to attack Pearl Harbor would be “awakening the sleeping giant” of the American people. He also stated that the Japanese military must be able to defeat the American forces in less than 6 months if ever to achieve success. He was very correct in his advice to the governing military body, so they were fully knowledgeable and chose to arrogantly ignore the clear warning given to them by their own trusted military leader. So how and why did Yamamoto so confidently make his warning about this decision to foolishly attack a nation larger and more resource enriched? He had lived in the USA for years and had come to understand and very much respected the mindset of the American people that his own government dispelled as weak pleasure seekers
You raise a good point with the Russo-Japanese War. It's not that crazy to look at how the Russian Tzarist military was a basket case, and figure that the Americans could be all bark, no bite. Yeah, they COULD be an economic juggenaught, but so COULD the Russians. Instead, the Russians lost their Pacific Fleet, then hobbled the Baltic Fleet ponderously to the other side of the world, which the Japanese promptly obliterated. Perhaps the Americans get punched at Pearl Harbor, and being arrogant Westerners, then send a ponderous fleet to reclaim the Philippines. That fleet gets smoked, America doesn't really think of the Philippines as a part of itself, and Japan can offer terms that Americans can accept, especially now that they don't "need" American oil so much.
You’re totally right. It’s easy to look back and say “what were they thinking?” The same thing they were thinking against the Russians or the Chinese
@@dennishealy3305this is a very good addition to the overall point here- and Dr. Paine talked at length about this. While I do not know what internal Japanese estimations of success were for prior opening gambits, I do know, thanks to this wonderful lecture/interview, that more than one prominent member of the Japanese high command understood the long odds they were facing. It was not going to be easy, but a degree of optimism dwelt in the hearts of said command and the call to attack was made.
And the rest is history, so passionately and carefully conveyed here in this wonderful TH-cam video. Thanks @Dwarkesh, you’re the man.
I absolutely love Sarah, would be a total blast sitting in her lectures.
Ms Paine is such a great lecturer and speaker!!! Love her!
She's an effective and clear communicator which I love. And she doesn't sugarcoat things or make it into something that is not. I love how well researched she is as well obviously it's her job I get that but it's just so deep.
Thank you for reuploading!!
Clever presentation. One comment on Buddhism. The first noble truth is that existence is Dukkha which is usually translated as 'suffering' but a better rendering would be dissatisfaction based on the observation that everything is impermanent and changing. A subtle but important distinction.
It might be but it's still pessimistic. I knew of that fact but it didn't take away from her points. Fun fact. The academic philosophy of pessimism is primarily inspired by Buddhism.
I don't know if you're playing devil's advocate or not, but I think the Q+A time showed too much hubris and optimism of human nature; a tendency that is unfortunately common to our time. All the questions about "what didn't they know", or "would this decision change outcomes" miss the mark. People in earlier times weren't dumber or less enlightened than us. We're not morally superior.
I loved listening to Professor Paine talk as she really understood this. The value in looking at these things is not to figure out why they don't think like us because we obviously wouldn't get into these messes; the point is that we WILL get into these messes and we need to be prepared to make the best decision in a list of horrible decisions.
I am weirdly excited for this.
Yes! Now I can kiss my sleep goodbye. Awesome
Thank you so much for these interviews Dwarkesh Patel, I also enjoyed you having asianometry on your show, and I would like to see him as a guest again, and/or Dylan Patel!
History matters, and especially the historical context. Professor Paine speaks as an informed realist.
Just in time for more half-court tennis tarrifs.
1:23:08 It should be clarified that Smoot-Hawley was not an oil embargo. It had tariffs on a lot of goods especially food. This resulted in a massive trade war and a general breakdown in international trade.
Sarah’s position is that Japan then decided that they need to invade Manchuria to access resources, especially food.
As a result of Japan’s invasion of Manchuria, the US placed an oil embargo on Japan.
It’s important to keep this series of events straight because it can be confusing.
She seems to suggest that that the embargo makes the invasion of Manchuria legitimate and her idea that Japan invaded China for the purpose of warding off communism and stabilizing China are ridiculous.
"As a result of Japan’s invasion of Manchuria, the US placed an oil embargo on Japan."
The oil embargo was a reaction to the Japanese occupation of French Indochina, not Manchuria.
@@WongPeter-tx7qq I font think she ever argues for legitimacy, in general she doesn't focus a lot on the morality of various actions taken in war. At one point he tries to say something about war being more civilized in recent times and she rejects that immediately. My understanding of her point isn't that the tariffs gave Japan some right to invade Manchuria, but rather that they were a failure on the part of the United States to consider the implications of their choice on the wider world. It doesn't make Japans actions more moral or justified, but it was still an incident that she argues led Japan to make the decisions that it did.
@@WongPeter-tx7qqshe’s not saying this is the “justified cause” she’s explaining the thinking of the leadership who go on to make those decisions. If the leadership had an isolationist bent they maybe could have closed Japan off (as it was during edo period) but that was unlikely the islands were not self sufficient at that point.
@@bolivar2153I think both were taken at the same time thus the confusion.
Living in Japan for 20+ years, it's incredible to see how much this mentality still controls Japanese work and social dynamics today.
I have such enormous, inhumane respect for Ms Paine that I even watch her interview at 1.0 speed.
The biggest compliment of all.
She’s amazing.
Oh yes she tells you exactly what you want to hear
This woman is just WOW
She said Japan invaded China to ward off communism! The communist part in China at that time was insignificant and the KMT was in the process of finishing it prior to Japan started the 2nd invasion. Why dragged communism into it when colonialism was still high in that period of time. Japan had colonized Korea and wanted to do the same in China. That has nothing to do with warding off communism.
About to tune into the whole thing. Looking forward to the lecture, and really hoping that the interview questions are a lot better than Episode 1
What didn't you like about the first interviews questions?
It feels like she really enjoys herself giving lectures. I am voting for more!
Thanks for having her back ❤🎉😊
Commenting so that this re-upload doesn't get buried. I'm surprised that the fairly tame description of [REDACTED] was considered inappropriate.
So with TH-cam it isn’t that it is “inappropriate” it is that it isn’t something advertisers want their ad next to. We need to be careful to not confuse adsense censorship algorithms with a moral actor and not a machine seeking profit above all else.
Re-watch party anyone? I will do!
Was in the middle of watching the old video now I gotta find my spot 😅
😊😊
Missionaries. There were thousands of American missionaries in China. In the 1920s and 1930s American school children would go door to door collecting donations for the missions in China. During this period Shanghai was the second largest US diplomatic mission after London. Entire boatloads of hundreds of missionaries would arrive. The US build schools, hospitals, water treatment plants, etc. Some of China's top universities and hospitals today have roots in these American efforts. Americans felt an extraordinary closeness to Chinese people. The "Good Earth" novel about the struggles of Chinese peasants was the bestselling novel in the US in 1931 and 1932. Madame Chiang (Soong Mei-ling) appeared on the cover of "Time" magazine in 1941 and 1937. Americans loved China.
It helped that Madam Chiang spoke English with a American Southern accent that she acquired while studying in the US, nowhere else in the world had that kind of accent so that endeared her to the American people more.
How do you get to be in the audience for these lectures?
Sarah Paine is someone I could just talk to for days on end. She’d be such an interesting person to hangout with
Thought provoking thanks.
What also struck me is Sarah Paine’s deep absorption of the East philosophy into her own way of thinking - descending the “simple, complex, simple, complex etc” which is what one Chinese wise man (Wang?!) said of delving into problems.
You get a glimpse into the depth of her understanding when she gestures that while other cultures of Asia share some norms they have their own underpinnings
Besides being a fascinating lecturer she does something unheard of on the web. She will say she doesn’t know some answers.
wake up new sarah paine lecture just dropped.
Excellent video! Thanks!
9:45 If Japan 🇯🇵 Bushido has 3 pillars: Buddhism, Shinto, Confucianism, would it be fair to say China 🇨🇳 three pillars are: Buddhism, Taoism, Confucianism?
I would say China has never had anything that's analogous to Bushido. There was never a established warrior class like the Samurai & going into the 20th century the ROC was already an officially secular state. Realistically the kind of dutiful adherence to an ideology wasn't a thing until communism.
No. Especially most Chinese are atheist
#1 is Legalism, then Confucianism which is more the social side, Buddhism mixed with folk beliefs and some Taoism is on the aesthetic and spiritual side.
Why reupload?
Cause they got demontized I think
TH-cam messed up and added Age Restrictions
YT doesn't care about 1a
The previous video was unfortunately age-restricted due to the discussion of seppuku. We've removed about a minute from this version, but you can still find the uncut version on all the other platforms!
@DwarkeshPatel the paternalistic attitude of youtube is very frustrating :(
The queen 👑
Thank you so much for this series with Dr. Paine. I’m about to go check out her books next
One would hope to have such a knowledgeable and insightful individual in one's own government.
Also, Sarah, one more question the battle of cannae the actual logistics of killing that many people with swords,bows and arrows ,shields ,clubs, the pure logistics even if you use the lowest possible numbers is absolutely horrifying Hannibal‘s army would’ve never been the same from a psychological point, also Romans that survived and had watched the carnage or at least as much as they could see through the fog and heard must’ve completely changed them forever in my opinion it was explains why Hannibal‘s army couldn’t finish the job and also why the Romans were so brutal in their retaliation thank you so much for everything you do. Your mind works in such a beautiful way.❤
Thank you for the reupload! TH-cam is awful for educational content restrictions
That Musashi quote was all about principles. The principles required to defeat 10 enemies is the same as 10,000.
Yep. And it's still wrong.
This is a must watch for war enthusiasts, especially the Japanese.
Perhaps not "war enthusiast" . Nobody should be enthusiastic about war. Military history enthusiast
Japanese are certified war deniers. Part of the reasons are discussed indirectly in lecture itself.
Pretty sure this kind of videos are not recommended by algo in Japan. Also it's in English
Sarah Paine's interpretation of WWII is definitely very interesting and entertaining.
Great content 👌
Appreciate your questions on her methodology, maybe dont cater to that much alternate history, ask the host to share alt hist if necessary
Everyone working some job in foreign affairs, diplomacy, or ambassadorial work needs to listen and take notes
I always look forward to her lectures and interviews.
Where can I find more of her besides the Naval War Institute and your channel?
I tried to read Musahi"s book on tactics called The Five Rings. It's very Japanese culturally and difficult to pin down. Musashi is venerated because he fought many duels and because his fierce surprise attacks was victorious. There is a story where he fought a prince and his body guard using only a wooden sword. These attacks emphasized fierceness and timing as the cause for the victory. Musahi also equates warfare with other pursuits such as art, music and poetry all which rely on perfect timing to be successful. He believed that a small dedicated force could defeat a larger force if timing and choice of battle filed was on the attacker's side.
You definitely earned a subscriber Mr. Patel. Bravo!
So nice, I watched it twice! ✌️
Idc that is a reupload. Ill watch it again!
If just look at my feed on youtube it just feels like Dwarkesh just owns Sarah Paine 😂 every second video features her.
Great lecture
the concept of "will power" is called 精神論 in japanese.
its a way to force or coarse subordinates to do impossible tasks.
a very useful concept for superiors in any organization rooted in seniority and confucianism.
i think modernization and democracy turned it into some kind of elitism.
not necessarily unique to japan, but all over east asia. and still alive, even in pop culture, from "senpai" anime to worshiping Kpop idols .
japanese military just used it as a tool. it was the earliest way to convince japanese was "bushido" ,because everyone farm boy want to be samurai, the ultimate elit in the eyes Japanese commoners.
i liked dwarkesh asked the next question, and pushed the ideas further. The thing about the sanctions and what's the end game if it does not change minds it just makes people poor, great one!
I LOVE THIS!
SARAH PAINE FOR PRESIDENT
‘….a bonsai charge?…’ so the Japanese military employed gardening clubs?
Excellent presentation. I watched the video on Admiral Ugaki's diary and your explanation matches him. Another influence I noticed was the Russo-Japanese war and its outcome. Japan's sneak attack destroyed Russia's Pacific Fleet. Then Japan destroyed the rest of Russia's Fleet. The war ended with diplomacy This scenario is what Japan wanted in WW2. Admiral Ugaki kept looking for a decisive battle that would bring the USA to the negotiating table and end the war. Never happened.
Sarah Paine's lectures are very interesting and I appreciate that I was able to discover her through Mr. Patel. Unfortunately the interview portions come off as an adult having a discussion with an intelligent for their age, but naive child.
The Japanese civilian government didn't control the army enough to prevent the invasion of Manchuria, how do you imagine they would be able to force the army to stop the war in China after 100s of thousands in military casualties? Half-court tennis as Mrs. Paine would call it.
Sarah, my question is about Pakistan and it’s current state fighting the Taliban if we refuse to provide aid are we in a sense supporting India?
If you're going to use time codes, 0:00 is not "Lecture begins", it's "Highlights". 0:45 is "Lecture begins" For the people who want to avoid duplicate watching it's much appreciated if you have a way to know when to skip ahead to.
Fixed!
Most countries that start a war and then proceed to lose continue to fight for fear of retribution from the apposing side.
She is a strategic resource of the US. Whether it understands it or not.
I love you Sarah Paine, I wish you were my Teacher.
042.00 Hot Washes? It's called an AAR (after action review).. They ask what went went well, and what did not go well.. Everyone, even an E-1 private is encouraged to speak freely.
This dude needs to slow the F down! He talks like a rabbit on speed and it's really distracting from the guest and seriousness of the topic.
New to the channel, been hoovering up interviews at pace though... If anyone has any recommendations of their favourites, I'd be all ears... Especially if they use history to teach current geopolitics like Sarah does
Uttery fascinating
did you make any edits to the seppuku description, and if so, what were they?
Amazing lecture by Prof Paine but GOOD LORD those Q&A prompts were mind-numbing. 🙄 It’s like each one was specifically formulated to be as detached from the very basic realities of human interaction as possible.
“I think the war could’ve been averted if these two groups of people, from vastly different cultures, with vastly different values, and speaking vastly different languages, would’ve simply communicated better.”
😐 uhhh yea.
There’s like 200,000+ years of human history full of violence that could’ve been avoided had we been capable of clearer communication at the time.
I may be wrong, but something about that trend leads me to believe you miiiight not be the first person to notice better alternative decisions in hindsight...and since the ones before you clearly didn’t manage to make humanity any less violent with such *grand* revelations, our prospects for the next 250,000 years aren’t looking any less bloody than the first.
Thankfully, people like Prof. Paine exist. We *clearly* need more educators encouraging realistic analysis if a person can be THIS confused by the nature of their own species.
love these
Dorkish has the geopolitical awareness of an 8 year old.
1:05 lecture begins
Very good
I see Paine, I click.
If you enjoyed this, Dan Carlin's "Supernova in the East" covers Japan in WW2 and it's fantastic.
The oil embargo for Japan is raised with regards to WW2, but the fact is the embargo was only imposed after Japan occupied S. Indochina, in August 1941. The United States was already quite unhappy about Japan occupying Tonkin in N. Indochina in September 1940.
17:00 , 26:56
Why does this guy always ask some variation of “what could the US have done differently to avoided conflict with expansionist fascist?” Like, probably nothing, my guy.
Patel needs to slow down and get a better grip on the material, the cultures being examined and the chronologies. Then again he is young and sounds at times like he just graduated from college. I trust he will mature as an interviewer.
Sarah Paine is a phenomenally candid, intelligent and articulate academic.
I don't understand why more people don't listen to Sarah Paine instead of Fox News.
Nice one sarah. ❤
Another detail. Masanobu Tsuji was the planner of the SE Asia campaign. Germany had breeched its agreement with Japan that it would not go to war against the Soviet Union without coordinating. Japan had been defeated by the Soviet Union in the late 1930s. The military viewed the options and concluded that unless it participated, the Germans would lose. However, Japan did not have enough resources to respond. The initial options were to either take years to build up the Japanese exploitation of Manchuria (conducted by the grandfather of the former JApanese prime minister who was assassinated a few years ago) or to take resources in SE Asia. It was decided at the very last minute to do the SE Asia campaign. The Japanese army from Manchuria and deployed it to SE Asia on bicycles. Where landing craft were to be used, there was no practice, but cartoon leaflets were handed out to the enlisted men.
The US had a plan. Bombers based in the Philippines would destroy the Japanese base on Formosa from whence supplies were being sent in 1940 support the Japanese occupation of Vietnam. MacArthur went to a party on the evening of the attack on Pearl Harbor and there was no second in command. In 2024, the equivalent would be the Secretary of Defense disappearing for a while without his second in command or the White House being told where he was. So the air fleet was destroyed the next day.
Bushido Code. Maresuke Nogi was the celebrated general from the War of 1905. When he returned to Japan, he asked permission to commit suicide. The Emperor Meji refused permission and said he could do it only after the emperor died. General Nogi was haunted by the deaths of his troops. He immediately committed suicide with his wife after the Emperor died. He didn't do it because of some concept that when the boss died, you followed.
34:00 THE ARSENAL OF DEMOCRACY, BABY!!!
Might just watch the whole lecture again.
57:30 "all this bushido moral stuff" "how does it square with the behavior" - this is such a painfully worded question.
some thoughts:
In bushido, surrender is cowardly and a coward is the worst thing you can be. The way western war the idea of 'retiring' and perhaps trading your officers for large bounties and stopping for midday tea etc was a European way of fighting war which had evolved over time. A time Japan wasn't interacting with the world. As Sarah mentioned, to be a good warrior you needed to accomplish the task or if you didn't you should die trying. When you surrender you're not trying hard enough.
Building on Dan Carlin's idea Japan's last major wars were all domestic wars and this is how they were fought, you slaughtered everyone and took their women and children maybe. They missed out on the mediating influences and relative contemporary way of war that was common in Europe. They emerged essentially from the 18th century into the 20th century with weapons and continued making war the way they had done internally prior to that.
Japanese Buddhism, like bushido, was co-opted for the governments aims. The emperor, who is a deity, or at least descended from one, is telling you to protect the homeland/fight enemies etc. Therefore they're "right", the rest is simply noble action to accomplish an outcome. Buddhist practitioners would say this is not true Buddhism, however in Japan many of the Buddhist leaders encouraged the national cause (as did others). Specifically to 'defend the dharma" (righteousness).
Using Zizek's example, in righteousness, you are not swinging the sword and killing someone, they are falling onto a sword you are holding- you are an observer of this righteous action.
Some scholars of bushido may be able to say this was a co-opting of bushido.. but I will leave that to them as I'm no expert just adding some speculation which viewers may find interesting.
Kinda misunderstands 4 noble truths: Suffering is inevitable, but suffering can be ended by right action (8 fold path) and detachment (NOT indifference!) To exist IS to suffer, but WHY and to WHAT EXTENT are Choices and yeah with perfect equanimity you escape just about all suffering.
59:00 Often, if a Japanese person is "supposed to" be in a position of power over you (e.g., aforementioned prison guard) and you look them in the eye, the first thing they will scream at you after they take a breath after a tirade (or pummeling) is, "What are you looking at?!" (なんだその目は!)
And it does not matter if they're completely wrong, unjust, tyrannical, etc., they're going to say it because they have assumed power over you, they're going to use it, and how dare you defy the Japanese order of things by looking someone higher up than you in the eyes. This part of the hierarchical society has survived to this day and it is part and parcel of the bullying and abusive dynamics in Japanese society.
Great lecture, and although I don't fully agree with Professor Paine, I still consider it extremely valuable and important.
My comments mainly concern:
1. Using the word "Russia" to refer to the Soviet Union, which is a misnomer.
2. Regarding the declassification of files. Declassification of documents about JFKjr or others have no impact on international relations. On the other side, documents from the conference in Tehran (where the post-war division of the world and giving half of Europe to the Soviets) or even those regarding the battleship USS Maine in the Havana port will never be declassified, because it would/could put the USA in a very bad light..
3. The third issue is related to the latter, i.e. the fact that Americans want to deal with everything legally on the international arena. Now maybe yes, but the issue of the outbreak of the American-Spanish war shows that this is a far-fetched statement and, in addition, the USA was/is able to do sacrifices to achieve its goals.
4. I am also a supporter of sanctions, but I realize that sanctions only apply to countries that are recipients of goods. In the case of Russia, which is a producer and supplier (for some countries the only one) of goods, from raw materials, through mining, military or nuclear technology to food, which is also economically linked to countries that may less or officially ignore sanctions, such sanctions will have only minimal effect.
5. Regarding the previous lecture and the fact that China may want to attack Russia now to take advantage of its involvement in the West and Africa to occupy part of Siberia - the Chinese are not stupid and know that they must first create together with Russia and other countries such as, for example, Iran and North Korea, an alliance that will allow them to defeat the USA (and it's allies), because without it the Americans could change their policy in an instant and start supporting the Russians attacked by China, which would end for China just as World War II ended for the Germans.
6. As to Germans as great US supporters - they are not. In the last 30 or so years Germany, just like France, is doing everything to limit American influence in Europe and the Middle East and, for its own benefits, is able to cooperate with US enemies, such as Russia or China, to achieve its own goals.
Greetings from Suwałki, Poland. I am looking forward to the third lecture and conversation.
Hi Dwarkesh, I not sure why you keep probing alternative scenarios where US avert involvement in WW2 at the 1:10:00- 1:25:00. Striving for peace at ALL cost is not always the preferred path. Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany had incompatible outlook from other world powers and sought to impose their own vision at the expense of others, definition of a zero-sum game. Negotiating with the Japanese may avert war in the short term by agreeing to their dismemberment of China and no oil embargo. But that just strengthen their long term position to challenge US again with a stronger hand and does nothing to deter future aggression. War is horrifying, but it is also one of the most definitive coercive instrument against your opponent. I am not sure any of us would want to live in a world where US remained in detente with imperial japan and allowed their militarism ideology to entrench for decades in East Asia.
just completed the first ep
What Dwarkesh needs to remember is that the Nazi's were appalled by how the Japanese treated their own soldiers....
It’s movie night I guess 🍿
Oh well... guess I just have to watch it all over again...
My grandfather fought in Burma. He's still alive with interesting stories
What is he? like 100?
@DennisSullivan-om3oo he says he was born 1924 but then all his agemates were born 24 so it's more of a guess work but around that time.
@@daniellimo4087 Give him our thanks for his service.
My great grandfather fought in ww1 and ww2. mons, somme, burma. I never met him but i'd love to know more about what his unit did.
Sometimes I wonder if there are any veterans out there still that may have known him or fought alongside him.
@@derbybOyzZ they are not many my grandfather is the last of this generation. It's complicated because my grandfather for example was illiterate and his memory is failing. Most of his documents are gone he only has medals a tin cup and plate given to him at the end of the war
It's insane to me that the naval arm of a nation's military could (or even would) hide the fact that they lost ONE THIRD of their aircraft carriers. Bushido or not, at some point you have to know that what you're doing will harm Japan long-term.
sounds like typical anime - just believe, get a random plot armour buff and somehow win the day through sheer willpower
I'm surprised Paine does not cite the Book of Five Rings, they literally named their lead BB after its author, no?