Very interesting podcast. I work in digital marketing and always wondered if the ndp messaging was even reaching people. Other than on reddit, of course.
Well at least the NDP don't have to go full on with the Greens. I up my lifespan of this government to over 2 years but not reaching 4 years. Given that the NDP have more left wing activist members of caucus now, I still don't see how Eby threads the needle. I would also like one party to promise a balanced budget, within the first term of office, next election. One can dream!!!!!
A balanced budget means tax increases. Everyone wants government services but no one wants to pay the tax. There are a lot of areas to cut wasteful spending (EV rebates, home owner grants, administrative bloat, etc) there still needs to be a tax hike to pay for new schools, hospitals, roads and trains. I'll vote for whoever promises a tax hike because they're being honest.
Pollieve IMO was part of Falcon's United party backing out. Coincidentally PP was in Vancouver at the same time Falcon made his announcement. Pollieve campaigning on Vancouver Island August 27-30. There was no federal election happening. Coincidence, I don't think so 🐍🍎
Let's review Mike McDonald's five "key" ridings that he predicted would finish within a 3% margin and his statement that the Party that won these close races would form government: Langley-Willowbrook: Conservative (3.6% margin) Maple Ridge East: Conservative (0.4% margin) Nanaimo-Lantzville: NDP (12.2%) North Vancouver-Seymour: NDP (17.0%) Surrey-Cloverdale: Conservative (2.7%) Observations: - Only 2/5 ridings finished within a 3% margin; - Only 1/5 were even among the 10 tightest races in British Columbia; - The Conservatives won 3 ridings but the NDP won a majority government. Conclusion: Mike's crystal ball needs some serious polishing!
I appreciate being humbled by the voters - they are always right. The 5 closest ridings for the record were: Surrey Guildford, Kelowna Centre, Courtenay-Comox, Juan de Fuca-Malahat, and Maple Ridge East. Adding to Guildford and Juan de Fuca, the next three closest NDP wins were Coquitlam-Burke Man, Vernon-Lumby, and Richmond-Steveston. So yes, I did get MR East as a close one but it didn't go with government (96 votes). I was clearly surprised that NV Seymour was a wipe out, indicating that BC Liberal moderates refused to follow Kevin Falcon to the Conservatives. Similarly, Nanaimo-Lantzville, another middle-class white collar riding, stuck with the NDP and that could have been a combo of moderates and a better candidate match-up. Both ridings had BC Liberal voting histories. I thought Langley-Willowbrook would be closer but still pretty close albeit not with government. The Fraser Valley clearly went home to Free Enterprise. I wasn't too far off on Cloverdale being close, but again it, did not follow government. Thanks for holding me accountable. Don't go to Vegas with my picks.
This episode is really good! Would be fascinating to hear the mirror perspective from the Conservative campaign chair. Also, how about having the president of their party on sometime too. She caught my attention on campaign night for her youth, and communication skills. Would be interesting to hear her perspective on how they grew their party. This podcast really lacks Green representation, as they are an enduring part of BC. Maybe have one or both of the new MLAs on? I loved the daily election coverage. You folks said you would circle back to first nations issues. If you did I missed it. Seems especially relevant to do so now since one of the Conservatives felt comfortable talking on mike on election night in a boldly racist way. And did you ever circle back to talking about the indo Canadian vote? Would be great to get a deeper understanding there. Lastly, I have enjoyed hearing from the former premiers. I thought Ujal and Christy might make appearances. I still hope they do. Heck, please get every living premeir who is still lucid on the show please. Thanks for everything
A few observations: 1. This election should permanently put to rest any notion that a "United Right" would deliver a guaranteed victory over the NDP in British Columbia. The Conservatives federally are enjoying an absolute apex of popular support, one not seen in several decades, and yet they LOST, straight up, to the NDP. The NDP won the popular vote by 1.6% and the seat count, 47-44, despite hemmorhaging 8.2% on their left flank to the Greens. Even a handicapped NDP beats the Conservatives at the height of their popularity. There is simply no getting around this fact. 2. After an extremely frustrating election, many centrists have reached the conclusion that is time to establish a viable centrist provincial party. Centrist voters believe that it will be more effective and efficient to negotiate agreements in the BC legislature as a stand-alone Party with its own MLAs, rather than being a junior partner in a 1950s-era "free enterprise coaltion". Centrists can be leaders and it is time for us to throw off the shackles from right-wing Tories who simply see moderates as token window-dressing to their extreme agenda. Again, the argument that if centrists branch off on their own, that it would only ensure a string of NDP victories has been unequivocally disproved: this election permanently disarms Conservatives who perceive Liberals as some kind of supporting actors in a provincial Tory blockbuster. 2. The week-long prospect of a minority legislature where the balance of power is held by the Green Party would have been a warped misrepresentation of where a strong minority of British Columbians lie politically, that is to say in the centre. If the centre had its own Party, it is clear it is they, not the Greens, who would have played a key role in forming the next government and/or influencing policy. I am convinced there are multiple times more centrists than Green supporters in this province. 3. The proof that a centrist Party would not only be viable, but prosper provincially, rests with a review of BC's seat counts from the past three federal elections: 2021 Liberals 15 Conservatives 13 NDP 13 Green 1 2019 Conservatives 17 NDP 11 Liberals 11 Green 2 Independent 1 2015 Liberals 17 NDP 14 Conservatives 10 Green 1 I know of a very serious group working to establish a new centrist political party to break the lamentable prospect of choosing between John Rustad/Conservatives and the NDP. This gaping political void will be filled soon.
I feel like the take away is instead that partisan politics are inevitable. Imagine if Conservatives had a remotely competent set of candidates and leader. If someone like PP was there instead of Rustad? It'd have been a done deal. The "Centre" had its own party. It disbanded and joined the right.
@BlarghenSnargle the Centre never disbanded. It was a hostile takeover, fuelled by the business community. Federal elections prove beyond any reasonable doubt that there is ample room for 3 parties + a small contingent of Greens.
Man, your cactus voice actor is really talented
The Cactus was on point.
Very interesting podcast. I work in digital marketing and always wondered if the ndp messaging was even reaching people. Other than on reddit, of course.
Well at least the NDP don't have to go full on with the Greens. I up my lifespan of this government to over 2 years but not reaching 4 years. Given that the NDP have more left wing activist members of caucus now, I still don't see how Eby threads the needle.
I would also like one party to promise a balanced budget, within the first term of office, next election. One can dream!!!!!
A balanced budget means tax increases. Everyone wants government services but no one wants to pay the tax. There are a lot of areas to cut wasteful spending (EV rebates, home owner grants, administrative bloat, etc) there still needs to be a tax hike to pay for new schools, hospitals, roads and trains. I'll vote for whoever promises a tax hike because they're being honest.
Pollieve IMO was part of Falcon's United party backing out. Coincidentally PP was in Vancouver at the same time Falcon made his announcement. Pollieve campaigning on Vancouver Island August 27-30. There was no federal election happening. Coincidence, I don't think so 🐍🍎
Let's review Mike McDonald's five "key" ridings that he predicted would finish within a 3% margin and his statement that the Party that won these close races would form government:
Langley-Willowbrook: Conservative (3.6% margin)
Maple Ridge East: Conservative (0.4% margin)
Nanaimo-Lantzville: NDP (12.2%)
North Vancouver-Seymour: NDP (17.0%)
Surrey-Cloverdale: Conservative (2.7%)
Observations:
- Only 2/5 ridings finished within a 3% margin;
- Only 1/5 were even among the 10 tightest races in British Columbia;
- The Conservatives won 3 ridings but the NDP won a majority government.
Conclusion: Mike's crystal ball needs some serious polishing!
I agree
I appreciate being humbled by the voters - they are always right. The 5 closest ridings for the record were: Surrey Guildford, Kelowna Centre, Courtenay-Comox, Juan de Fuca-Malahat, and Maple Ridge East. Adding to Guildford and Juan de Fuca, the next three closest NDP wins were Coquitlam-Burke Man, Vernon-Lumby, and Richmond-Steveston. So yes, I did get MR East as a close one but it didn't go with government (96 votes). I was clearly surprised that NV Seymour was a wipe out, indicating that BC Liberal moderates refused to follow Kevin Falcon to the Conservatives. Similarly, Nanaimo-Lantzville, another middle-class white collar riding, stuck with the NDP and that could have been a combo of moderates and a better candidate match-up. Both ridings had BC Liberal voting histories. I thought Langley-Willowbrook would be closer but still pretty close albeit not with government. The Fraser Valley clearly went home to Free Enterprise. I wasn't too far off on Cloverdale being close, but again it, did not follow government. Thanks for holding me accountable. Don't go to Vegas with my picks.
This episode is really good! Would be fascinating to hear the mirror perspective from the Conservative campaign chair. Also, how about having the president of their party on sometime too. She caught my attention on campaign night for her youth, and communication skills. Would be interesting to hear her perspective on how they grew their party.
This podcast really lacks Green representation, as they are an enduring part of BC. Maybe have one or both of the new MLAs on?
I loved the daily election coverage. You folks said you would circle back to first nations issues. If you did I missed it. Seems especially relevant to do so now since one of the Conservatives felt comfortable talking on mike on election night in a boldly racist way.
And did you ever circle back to talking about the indo Canadian vote? Would be great to get a deeper understanding there.
Lastly, I have enjoyed hearing from the former premiers. I thought Ujal and Christy might make appearances. I still hope they do. Heck, please get every living premeir who is still lucid on the show please.
Thanks for everything
Stay tuned. Thanks for feedback.
A few observations:
1. This election should permanently put to rest any notion that a "United Right" would deliver a guaranteed victory over the NDP in British Columbia. The Conservatives federally are enjoying an absolute apex of popular support, one not seen in several decades, and yet they LOST, straight up, to the NDP. The NDP won the popular vote by 1.6% and the seat count, 47-44, despite hemmorhaging 8.2% on their left flank to the Greens. Even a handicapped NDP beats the Conservatives at the height of their popularity. There is simply no getting around this fact.
2. After an extremely frustrating election, many centrists have reached the conclusion that is time to establish a viable centrist provincial party. Centrist voters believe that it will be more effective and efficient to negotiate agreements in the BC legislature as a stand-alone Party with its own MLAs, rather than being a junior partner in a 1950s-era "free enterprise coaltion". Centrists can be leaders and it is time for us to throw off the shackles from right-wing Tories who simply see moderates as token window-dressing to their extreme agenda.
Again, the argument that if centrists branch off on their own, that it would only ensure a string of NDP victories has been unequivocally disproved: this election permanently disarms Conservatives who perceive Liberals as some kind of supporting actors in a provincial Tory blockbuster.
2. The week-long prospect of a minority legislature where the balance of power is held by the Green Party would have been a warped misrepresentation of where a strong minority of British Columbians lie politically, that is to say in the centre. If the centre had its own Party, it is clear it is they, not the Greens, who would have played a key role in forming the next government and/or influencing policy. I am convinced there are multiple times more centrists than Green supporters in this province.
3. The proof that a centrist Party would not only be viable, but prosper provincially, rests with a review of BC's seat counts from the past three federal elections:
2021
Liberals 15
Conservatives 13
NDP 13
Green 1
2019
Conservatives 17
NDP 11
Liberals 11
Green 2
Independent 1
2015
Liberals 17
NDP 14
Conservatives 10
Green 1
I know of a very serious group working to establish a new centrist political party to break the lamentable prospect of choosing between John Rustad/Conservatives and the NDP.
This gaping political void will be filled soon.
I feel like the take away is instead that partisan politics are inevitable. Imagine if Conservatives had a remotely competent set of candidates and leader. If someone like PP was there instead of Rustad? It'd have been a done deal. The "Centre" had its own party. It disbanded and joined the right.
@BlarghenSnargle the Centre never disbanded. It was a hostile takeover, fuelled by the business community.
Federal elections prove beyond any reasonable doubt that there is ample room for 3 parties + a small contingent of Greens.