What's the Luckiest Turn Possible in Pokemon?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 เม.ย. 2024
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get that bag bestie !!!
they really let you put "we got that bag" in the ad, so good
Are you even aware of raid shadow Legends sins?!
@@user-AADZmost are but we need money so we need to take sponsor ships at the start.
average AI turn in the Battle Tower
Average online battle opponent turn
Based
Pokémon Emerald Battle Tower was crazy
Based
How it feels to play against bro (he swears that he never gets this lucky)
Zero doesn’t feel like a real word anymore
There's 81 zeroes if I counted correctly
Some mathematicians argue that zero ISNT a number more of a concept! The opposite of infinity if you could imagine that :)
@@MultiWolfLinkBut…infinity is considered a concept and not a number. Did you hit your head?
Imagine if he said O instead of 0 owowowowowowowowowowowo
@@lwfawnI think they mean they’re opposites in how infinity is kind of everything, including every number no matter how high, whereas zero is absolutely nothing, yet 0 is usually considered an actual number. Opposite concepts, not opposite in the fact that ones a concept and the other isn’t
Doing some quick napkin math, you are more likely to encounter 19 shiny Pokémon (full 1/8192 odds) in a row than this event happen in a single turn
BRO 😭😭😭
19???? My friend got 2 and I thought that was lucky
@@Rylee_Drakeit is
@@Someone-sq8im well 1 is
The chances should be even lower than that, as rng isnt a true random, so you have to take into account how rng's random is an algorithm that mimics random, but it will not give you the full odds, 19 shinies in a row, and the pokemon turn in this video should be even lower odds than shown.
Yea this is unlikely to happen but you know what's even less likely to happen? Chi-Yu landing a heat wave
Bro has NOT heard of 252+ SpA Choice Specs Chi-Yu Overheat vs. 252 HP / 4 SPD Toxapex in Sun: 263-310 (86.5 - 101.9%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
@@Cycloon16 The funny thing is that Overheat has lower accuracy than heat wave lol
@@teeweezeven they both have 90 accuracy
@@Cycloon16 oh, you're right. I somehow misread Heat waves BP as its accuracy lol
Hitting a 99% pop. Bomb once
Something he forgot about are high rolls and low rolls.
If this really is the luckiest turn in pokemon, he would need to get the highest roll on every hit and opponent would need to get the lowest roll on every hit
3:53
And I thought getting hit, crit, and confused by hurricane causing my mon to hit itself was unlucky
Nice pfp
That exact play was actually made!! What are the odds?!
A small TH-camr named "Dream" made this play iIrc
Yep! An anonymous Harvard professor confirmed it too
Remember kids, keep on gambling
90% of gamblers quit before they hit it big
This is the stupidest video idea I've heard in a while. I'm fucking hooked, and need to know the answer.
For those of us who didn't want to bother counting all of those zeroes at the end (to be fair, yes, you're valid here lol), the odds written down are 3*10^-76. That is, a decimal point, followed by 75 zeroes, followed by a three.
Statisticians and STEM majors be quaking in our boots rn.
In words, that is approximately one in quattuorvigintillion. Wow.
THANK YOU. i literally checked the comments just to see if someone had written it in scientific notation lmao
Why did you mention damage ranges in the beginning but not use them in the calculation? That's another juicy ((1/16)^10)^2 chance we could add
edit: for clarity, the ^2 is because of lucky support's instruct. The damage range of the opposing smeagle doesn't matter, as every hit is focus banded anyway
I think because I don't know if you can code servers in Pokemon Showdown to always land the maximum/minimum damage roll
I could be wrong because I have as much coding knowledge as the Florida Panthers have Stanley Cups
i think he just forgot, since every pop bomb hit did the same amount of damage. also tho, they wouldn’t matter for the maushold since each hit would bring smeargle to focus band regardless of roll
But the crits also don’t matter and he mentioned them. Maybe there’s some mechanical reason.
since every damage in the damage range are equal it would cancel out, it's a uniform distribution not a normal distribution
@KingTheLuck address this or we riot
I could be wrong but the odds of this turn happening is comparable to the odds of two people picking the same particle in the universe
Honestly the best way you could put it in the human frame of reference. The universe is estimated to have 10^78 - 10^86 atoms in it. As such the probability of two people picking the same particle would be somewhere between 10^-156 and 10^-172. Which is obscenely low. Even compared to this. That would be the odds of getting that turn twice in a row, on the high end of those odds.
@@kyanconnor1037 No? The first person picks a particle, any particle, it doesn't matter. The odds that the second person picks the particle the first one chose is that approximate 10^80. What you calculated was if you already had a particle in mind, and both people happened to match it.
@@mambodog5322 Makes sense. Forgot to account for it not being a dependent event. Both of them pick it independently and are thus subject to the same odds. The odds I calculated therefore are more accurately. Why if someone picked a particle at random and then what are the odds a second person picks that exact particle. In that case the event becomes dependent on the previous result.
I think he missed a zero
Have to do it again
I appreciate that King doesn't waste any time to pad out his videos, but i also kinda wish he did because i like the sound of his voice.
Haha agreed
He literally padded out with a plz subscribe message.
Zero zero zero zero…
Me too. I like to put on long (25min+ preferably much longer) videos of people talking about Pokémon to fall asleep to every night and King's voice would be so good for that!
@@Larszard I learn more and more how non unique I am. I do this all the time and I find it works because it quiets my brain as I can focus on something I know while also slowly disengaging
Congrats on the sponsorship king 😌
big props for taking the subtle end of video sponsorship instead of making it take up half the video
Agreed. I may not care a bit for raid, but I’m glad to see people who make great content getting something
@KingTheLuck finally living up to his name.
Why not metronome pulling population bomb instead of just using population bomb
oh youre right i think
I think because this is supposed to be realistic and that would be a little bit unrealistic and silly
I think the mechanics of metronome are that it picks a random move from a preset selection when it is clicked. So unless you just assumed that it was picking it from all possible moves, there isnt any real way of calculating the odds of pulling pop bomb from metronome
Never been so happy to see a Raid Shadow Legends sponsorship lol. Congrats on getting that bag, and thank you for another video answering a question I didn't even thinking about asking before but now desperately need to know
Actually!!! 🤓
Why is the user smeargles not frozen? Probability of thawing out is 10%, less than paralysis check.
To add the odds of Toxic chain from the opposing Maushold. Having them be statused in the first place means removing the toxic chain odds entirely.
@@battle188883 I think they are tlking about the support Smeargle, which is paralyzed in the video.
Could it be because paralysis checks each hit of population bomb and freeze only checks once? If not, then yeah, freeze thaw would be better.
Aaron Zheng wasn't so unlucky after all!
Too soon
it's been 10 and a half years
But it still burns hot as a branding iron. Hot as a will o' wisp, gone astray
It's shocking that you don't have 10x this many subscribers.
"What did you think I was going to cheat? No, we're actually doing this"
(uses a third party battle simulator)
This channel deserves WAY more subs for the quality of content you are producing. Wish I could buy you a beer and shoot the shit about pokémon into the wee hours. Keep it up!
This feels like the least likely turn, but it seems objectively luckier for your opponent to just miss instead of hitting but not getting a secondary effect
I know you're from Ireland but you feel very dutch
HE'S IRISH?!
I ACTUALLY THOUGHT HE WAS DUTCH
Not me being Dutch and sounding like a crying baby….
What an odd thing to say
Unfortunate doesn't even begin to describe.
I wonder if there is a level higher than 1, where Lucky Dog still "dies" to every hit, but is also able to kill the Unlucky Mouse with the ten high-rill crits xd Or maybe in two turns at least
I would have appreciated the "luckiest turn possible" actually getting somewhere in the fight
How about getting metronome and then using population bomb💀
If you ran this scenario once for every atom in the universe, it still probably wouldn’t happen.
Absurdly underrated video as usual, but I would like to suggest making the music a bit quieter. It's hard to hear you at times.
Just recently found your channel, and I'll admit, it's the animated avatar that brought me in... and pokémon. Your animation, however, reminds me a LOT of Joel Haver's animated works (including your style of humour), which has left me with a smile with every video of yours I've so far watched. I'll almost certainly be subscribing soon.
Why are you reading this comment when you could instead subscribe to King the Luck, like the video, and share with a friend? Do it. Now.
I guess you could say that that turn happening to the opponent would be... Unfortunate
But does that truly even begin to describe it?
The end sounded like someone doing an annoying TTS 😂
Actually, there are still multiple things you can do to make this rarer. First, damage in pokemon has a degree of randomness in the form of a "damage role" that can make the move do more or less damage. Additionally, in some generations there are tripple battles, but i'm not sure if its in a game with maushold i havnt played the newer generations. Also, im not sure if the tripple battles are in pokemon showdown at all.
No the triple battles got removed in like gen 7 or 8. Only lasted a couple gens unfortunately
I actually have a counterargument to make. If the attack is already triggering Focus Band, then technically it doesn't actually matter whether the hit is a crit or not, as it's already doing enough damage to knock the Pokemon below 0 HP. In that light, I'd like to make the case that it would be more unlucky if every single one of Maushold's hits DID crit. A) the opponenet is subject to more textboxes as a result, and B)... can you imagine the soulcrushing emotional rollercoaster of seeing the crit text followed by the focus band text, TWENTY TIMES?
I think focus miss can cause something even more unlikely to happen. For some reason it is boosted by sheer force implying it has a secondary effect. Records are unclear what it does given it seems to only rarely when it hit but it seems to lower special defense for next time you hit it
RAINBOW FIELD EFFECT? The most progressive move by gamefreak since giving Nidoqueen Superpower but not Nidoking. Great video as always!
Still better than using focus miss
Before I see the answer, I'm thinking the opponent will be a Butterfree with compound eyes missing sleep powder against a mon with minimum evasion.
Wow, never mind - the population bomb shenanigans are ridiculous!
Or in other words: the odds that Dream's speedrun was legit.
I misread your name as King of Luck and thought you were some evil counterpart of King of Skill xD
Assuming that number is accurate, the chance of this is about the same as getting 251 heads out of 251 flips.
Hitting focus blast
Unfortunate you couldn't use focus blast for this, but I understand the paradoxal math of it having a 0% chance to hit on your turn and 100% chance to hit on the opponent's turn makes the math a little wonky. Can't multiply by 0!
What if the smeargle used metronome to call population bomb?
4:15 "Unuckiest Pokemon" lol
Should have inversed the number so we could see the 1 in ____ chance of success
did you know protect has a 1/65536 chance of failing on the first turn
How did you force the Showdown battle to give you perfect luck? Because it's obvious you (or anybody else!) wouldn't try to brute force those odds for a clip. Just interested
You can edit the HTML of a replay to make it display whatever you want, so that's probably what he did. If you ever see meme posts where impossible things happen that's also how they do it
Interesting thought experiment!
However, there are multiple issues with the calculations:
The odds of the turn ending up like this is significantly higher, as much of the probabilities are irrelevant. When you're calculating the probability of an event (the turn ending up in the favour of the "lucky player"), you have to add the probabilities of all cases where that event occurs, not just a particular case (eg. this one, which is the most unlikely.)
Some other ways that this turn could have happened:
- The Maushold crit on any strike. This doesn't benefit the Maushold as focus band negates damage entirely.
- The Maushold missed on any strike. This would obviously be "lucky" for the player with no maushold, and significantly increases the odds of this turn occuring in particular.
This is particularly egregious as the player with the smeargle would've wanted to _avoid_ this scenario happening, as it's a series of events happening _against_ them.
There is also further probabilities in play that went unaccounted for, such as the smeargle's damage output which should specifically be a _highroll_ critical, which is a 1/16 chance of occuring.
tl;dr:
Could've been luckier.
“Coulda been luckier make an update video”
1. Maushold crits, like you said, do not make the Smeargle player any luckier, which is the point of the video (read the title? There's nothing wrong with the calc)
2. When Population Bomb misses, the move ends, which would prevent the Focus Band from activating.
tldr; no
@@hide-and-zeke1546 W
@hide-and-zeke1546
Let's put it this way. If I have a dime and a quarter to choose from at random, what are the odds of me flipping heads?
Even though the additional information about the coin's value is present, that doesn't change the fact that the chances of getting heads is still 50/50, as even though a quarter is "bigger" than a dime, that doesn't make it so that flipping heads with the dime is any less relevant than flipping heads with the quarter.
When you're looking at the outcome of a random event, then there are often a lot of different cases that lead to similar results. In the video, we are looking at a turn where "smeargle makes it through the population bomb to get a hit off and not die from poison afterwards", and so to calculate those odds then we need to identify every case.
Because the information about the crits is completely irrelevant, then we need to ignore it as part of the calculation, which makes the scenario 1024x more likely to occur than is calculated in the video.
And yes, if population bomb misses, the move ends, that is the whole point.
When looking at the odds of the scenario, you have to consider each case separately: the move hits 0, 1, 2... All the way up to 10 times. The likelihood we're looking for (the player with smeargle comes out ahead, or "is lucky") could happen in any of these cases, including the case for it hitting 10 times, which was the only case analysed in this video: but that only occurs less than 35% of the time, and the other 65% of the time, the odds are stacked more heavily in the smeargle's favour.
I'm not holding it against anyone - I know a lot of people struggle with probability! But this just isn't how the math applies to this situation.
Agreed, would be interesting a followup that shows the luckiest final result of a turn. This is still incredibly "lucky" due to the smeargle hitting 10x bombs, so that final damage on Maushold would be affected by the 10x crits, but as you said the smeargle result is only being non-statused at 1 hp.
Random thought. a little contrast color lipstick will make it a lot easier for your masking software to rotoscope you without your mouth turning into a weird, abstract hole when faced from the front. Most costume lipstick is cheap and comes off with a while but those generally only come in bright red or black. If you wanna experiment with other colors though, Burt's Bees lipstick is all natural and never really seems to dry so a warm damp rag will wipe it right off after the shoot. Id give it a go!
Wow that's really helpful, definitely something I'll try experiment with thanks!
@@KingTheLuck no problem! I dunno why that came to mind but it just kinda reminded me of stuff I've read and seen from way back in the black and white TV days to make actors pop properly even if it looked odd to the naked eye
@@KingTheLuck huh. Actually now that I think of it black or bright red may be the way to go anyway. Assuming the algorithm the software is using is looking for "mouth colors" along with movement it might actually see red lipstick as your mouth more open than it is and define the shape of your mouth when speaking better. Meanwhile, while it may detect the red as your mouth when you arnt speaking still, that at best will only manifest as a black line on the finished product or at worst a stylistic black dot where your mouth should be. Sorry if I'm rambling but I have a deep enjoyment of technical stuff like this and I'm fascinated by the rotoscope tech you're using.
Maybe... smearlge using metronome into population bomb?
Partner smeargle using metronome into instruct?
...not sure if that last one counts as lucky, but just throwing ideas around
After all that, the opposing Maushold still had 80% HP left. Would’ve been great if the Maushold’s level was low enough that it would faint… but ONLY if it got hit by 20 high roll crit Population Bombs! And if the format being played was First Blood, meaning that whoever gets a KO first wins. That way, each player is incentivised to try to KO the opponent, rather than just playing a part in a probability experiment.
It can't be that uncommon, this happens all the time. Happened to me last week!
If the Blastoise and Blaziken were a reference to the Deoxys movie then know it is appreciated
My first thought was hitting protect over and over again. But I doubt that's gonna beat your answer lol
oh yeah I had this exact scenario the other day, pretty wild
You need to put the final numer in scientific notation for full points on the quiz
...this is just the beauty of Pokemon contests
that's some Dream luck right there
the luckiest turn is hitting focus blast.
8:43 lil pump cameo goes crazy
Now what are the odds of this turn happening if all the pokemon had to use metronome and hope to get the right moves for the setup?
Phoenix Wright music is so good here!
bro really did all those calculations and then not show us the answer in scientific notation
Interestingly, this is also the most unlucky turn if you consider the other player’s POV
There's an argument that fully missing Population bomb is "worse", which would only be a 0.9 chance. But also this is all hypothetical
Landing a Focus Blast that lowers the special defence and crits.
The luckiest turn possible would be maushold using population bomb, hitting 10 times, critting every time, beat up hitting 6 times and critting every time without held items
i may hate math..... but i'll be damned if i don't gobble up pokemon-related math
Average randbats opponent turn
I was wondering about the high/low roll chances, having every attack for the unlucky Pokémon get the lowest roll and having the lucky Pokémon high roll, unless I’m missing something. This could make the funny number even funnier. Love the content
Is it even guaranteed that an RNG seed even exists that will produce this outcome?
Probably not.
The probability at the end of the video is about 1 in 2^257, so to have any reasonable chance of a seed existing, the size of the PRNG seed would have to be close to 257 bits, or higher. In practice, PRNG sizes are usually powers of 2. For a 256-bit PRNG the chance of a seed existing would be ~40%; for 512-bit or larger it'd be essentially 100%. On the other hand, for 128-bit, 64-bit, or smaller, it would be essentially 0%.
According to pkmn/engine on GitHub, the PRNG used for battles is 32-bit in Gens 3-4, and 64-bit in Gens 5-6. Information about later generations is sparser. According to Lincoln-LM/numba_pokemon_prngs, the main PRNG used in Gens 8-9 is Xoroshiro128+ which is 128-bit, but I don't know whether that is used for battles specifically. But unless Gen 9 uses a 256-bit or larger PRNG for battles, there almost certainly isn't a seed.
What about Pokemon Showdown? Well, it apparently uses a 64-bit PRNG based on Gen 5, regardless of the generation being simulated. So there too, there almost certainly isn't a seed.
I would consider myself luckier if Maushold just missed the first population bomb
isn't this the same as "what is the unluckiest turn possible in pokemon" but from the other side
Yes
I know we're going for the highest number here with the most statistically improbable turn, but wouldn't it technically be "luckier" for the player if the opponent misses their attack entirely?
Hold on.
I have an idea.
What if instead of doing Focus Band Activation (1/10 per hit) for the item, we do the Maushold getting the lowest damage roll possible (0.85x base power, 1/15 chance per hit assuming no crit)? Then we could get unluckier and free the item slot on Lucky Dog.
Why not both? Have the focus band and damage rolls. Sure, it doesn't matter hp wise, but the crits are there already anyways
Gambling addiction!?!?
Maushold needs a +acc, so that not landing a population bomb (preferrable to it hitting and not doing anything) is impossible.
This is an annoying and less interesting angle, but using successful protects in a row is luckier, even if just counting the final protect. Since Protect reduces in success chance for each successful use in a row by 1/3rd, with a Pokemon using Harvest Leppa Berries, you can use it an infinite amount of times in a row. The match won't end since the opponent can also use Harvest Leppa Berries to never run out of attack PP. This can be done in singles with just 2 Harvest pokemon, an infinite amount of time, and an infinite amount of harvest + protect luck.
The only thing stopping this from being an infinitely lucky chance is if there is a hardcap code in the game for Protect, where after X uses of it it no longer functions properly, either stopping at some low chance, looping around to being 1/1 chance, or just automatically failing.
i wonder the odds of doing mirror metronome matchups, and speed tie each time, get an ohko move and have it land all 6 times (assuming they're all like idk, max speed timid gengar)
how many more zeros can we add if we count instead of using popbomb from command, you luck it out by using metronome and landing on popbomb?
U can also just use metronome for an extended chance
I forgot about population bomb honestly
I was expecting it to be pokemon stadium, both pokemon missing a 100% move, since thats 2 1/65565 chances in a row (though i dont know the probability for that)
TRULY living up to your name i see
the actual luckiest turn is hitting focus blast when you need
Can metronome call population bomb? Or are we not considering that because it would be better to call Endeavor. And if we call endeavor we lose the ability to crit and max damage roll so many time.
Sounded like a Pokémon called "Zero" at the end there
Could you also boost the number a little bit by having the unlucky Pokemon not get the damage rolls to knock out the lucky Pokemon, then have the lucky Pokemon make the damage roll for the KO?
The probability of this one isn't quite as low... but I think it gets some extra style points.
We're going to skill swap iron barbs/rough skin onto Focus Band Smeargle.
This has the odd effect of limiting
The iron barbs damage gets wonky, but the highest HP value that takes exactly 10 hits to get KOd from iron barb damage is 55. 1/8th rounded down is 6. If we went up a notch to 63 HP, it's 7 damage per hit, the 9th would KO, so nothing with HP this level or higher will be able to survive 9 hits.
I don't think you can get a Maushold with HP this low due to evolution method. You could probably use a Smeargle though. But if you're looking to ensure each hit can KO, you might need to pull some nonsense with something that has very low base HP, reasonable attack, and access to something tricky such as mimic, mirror move, metronome, etc.
GAMBLING ????????
If you use menome to call population bomb and instruct you can mytipy it by 1/919 twice
Still higher odds than Focus Blast landing
Could it have been lower if you used damage ranges for the smeargle?
This happened to me just last week actually
speedrunning getting this event rn, wish me luck
oh so only a 1 in 32.8 Quattuorvigintillion chance
I think Maushold should've been given an accuracy boost since at least hitting all 10 population bomb hits is a form of good luck. The final probability isn't actually effective so this isn't meaningful but I felt it could be mentioned.
I'm allowed to offer criticism/feedback this one time because I decided to subscribe this video, right?
Also the rainbow field effect thing was genius. I know about the pledges creating terrain effects but I had no idea rainbow did that, let alone would've remembered it.
I also wonder how long that text box can get... the one that the focus band spam made look silly. We've had longest turn so what about longest single action? Or maybe that's already been done and I'm an idiot.
Could you increase crit chance on the lucky dog and use topsy turvy?