Another OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION. Bravo. And thank you for your disclosures at the beginning of your talk. Your work is being watched worldwide for accuracy. As a soldier for 33 years, I know the critical nature of disinformation, deception and "spin". You are a breath of "fresh air" and accuracy in the spring. Col (Ret) Glenn Ekblad.
That certainly does give you an interesting perspective, Colonel. I totally agree with your assessment of this excellent lecture series. However, I have a question: What army did you serve in? Your last name sounds like it might be Scandinavian. But that, of course, doesn't mean you couldn't also be American.🤔 As a lifelong student of history, particularly military history and International Relations, I've found this lecture series to be highly enlightening I really enjoy Professor Stubbs well-organized and methodical style.👍
It's always good to hear that there's people from other countries that like America. I agree with Professor Stubb's analysis of the moments in time that have caused America's hegemony to be threatened, but I think some important aspects have been left out from the point of view of an American (probably due to time). US hegemony has been incredibly costly to the US middle class. I think that it instinctually feels that maintaining world stability through US military might benefits other countries more than it benefits the American consumer. The US dollar being the world's reserved currency means that the dollar's value is protected for the world's rich over the US citizen. I think this is what the slogan "make America great again" actually means. Its the strong isolationist current that has always ran through the American psyche rearing its head again. The Ukraine war has snapped us out of that. Realizing that though US hegemony may be costly to us, the alternative is probably far worse.
I can't agree with your analysis. Firstly, American hemogeny based on military power relies on industry and govt spending which almost exclusively is located in the US, so it's hard to argue that govt spending on the military is going to negatively influence the iddlr class. Secondly, and connected to the previous point, the issues with the American middle class began in the 1980s, after 30 years of cold war military industrial complex, so hard to argue that magically the same thing that had been successful for decades suddenly stopped working (especially as the military budget came down in 5he 90s as the situation began to worsen for the middle class. The reason for the issues with the American middle class have nothing to do with American hemogeny, but rather increased globalization. Manufacturing left, and then services. Meanwhile, living in America is expensive, more so than in Europe for the middle class. Pile on top of this higher costs for higher education (due to the need for more administers), and this is what has caused issues for the American middle class. The answer would therefore seem to be less globalization, but rather the opposite. America needs to invest in infrastructure, as well as tech that it can export like computer chips, renewable energy, ect. This is what will actually keep America great, IE basically nothing trump did nor promised...
@@JonZiegler6 I agree that the issues to the American middle class are mainly caused by other issues. The military industrial complex creates more of an upper class job in my opinion. I'm talking about the tax burden that the middle class bears while reaping no benefits from that tax. There's a reason that the Europeans don't like spending on military and its because the tax money is better spent on services that help their populations. The US middle class doesn't have that luxury. Thanks for the well thought out reply.
@@JonZiegler6 I am not an American but I have lived around the world and used to have a place in DC and have worked on both the East and West coast of the US. So I have some perspective as an outsider and some knowledge of how the nation works compared to others. I agree the hollowing out of the middle class came via US success in the post-war that led to strong productivity gains and strong wages. That plus faster international transport allowed for offshoring looking for tax breaks and lower labor costs. Given that we aren't going to get rid of international transport, globalization is here to stay. Do you want to pay more for clothing and other goods if you can get a low cost option via Amazon today that was made in a foreign factory? Most consumers want to save their money. So when companies re-shore in the US it will be based around shorter supply lines, greater automation, and better productivity. It still won't bring good jobs back to middle America in most cases. Yes, the US has terrible crumbling infrastructure and unfortunately all forms of government spending are subject to capture by industry and/or interest groups so more spending on healthcare in the US doesn't deliver the returns that can be achieved in many European countries or nations such as Australia. It is a dilemma that I can't see being solved for now.
Thank you very much for this series. It has clarified the current war, as well as the power-balance(s) that's currently forming around the world - in a clear, non-alarmistic and rational way. And greetings from your neighbor Sweden. (Although I understand you're currently living in Florence.)
That's why your English is so very good..😀 I've watched a few of your videos now and really like them. The points you bring up make a lot of sense. Keep up the good work! 👍
Absolutely love this series! So enlightening! Thank you for taking your time and educating us on geopolitics.. it’s so interesting and absolutely fascinating hearing it from someone of your level in the political world.
A G A I N S T joining NATO : 1) Joining NATO means to serve as a target for Russia´s or China´s strategic nuclear missilles all the time in future, certainly not just untill Ukraine war would end. 2) USA may back off in case of nuclear war in Europe to save hundreds of their cities- than NATO would loose nuclear war in Europe. 3) USA would appreciate every new NATO land(Finland) to absorb some of Russia´s nukes, which otherwice would probably explode above USA´s cities in case of nuclear war between USA and Russia... 4) Finland managed alone in past, could manage in future. It is still far better option than to be incinereted instead of some USA´s cities one day...USA likes to be nuclear armed nation, on the other hand they can not defend themself against Russia´s nuclear forces, let alone to defend Europe against it! Finland would better to rely on Finish defensive means and not to mess with counting on USA and kind of stand up against nuclear superpowers like Russia and China to "fight" them one day... To "fight" them means - to absorb some of nukes which would otherwise explode above USA´cities very harmlessly for Finland.... 5) Joining NATO is the way how to assure the tottal destructin to Finland during a nuclear war between USA and Russia, or even between European NATO members and Russia... 6) If anybody thinks that USA is a morally "OK" NATO leader- kind of a "good guy" , than please try to google: "USA drone strikes" . You will find horrible crimes committed by USA on civilians including children in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen an other third world countries... 7) Pro NATO propaganda sounds like this: „No NATO country has ever been invaded. “ Russia has not been invaded either. It certainly does not prove, that NATO and Russia will not destroy each other one day without any invasion. 8) In case of nuclear war the destruction would be gruesome, but also very limited geographically to states involved. Joining NATO is possibly signing of a completely unnecesarry death sentence, since it is signing of being targeted by SATTAN II and more of similar machines of death instead of some USA´s mainland, which is warmly welcomed by USA.
@@mirekslechta7161 - Thinking there can be a safe “sideline” to stand on in a nuclear war or that such a war will only harm American or NATO aligned cities, represents a fundamental lack of understanding of the devastation a nuclear exchange will bring. If nukes are launched, it will be game-over for humanity. The luckiest people will be those incinerated instantly, not those dying a slow horrible death from the effects of the blasts.
@@The1DUIGuy Who told you that-USA propaganda? ? The estimates on how many people would die if all warheads would be used (including what China , India, Izrael Pakisan have) is: If there was a global nuclear war, the death toll would be from between 100 million to 1 billion depending on who you ask, what day of the week it is, and which way the wind is blowing. It means, even in worst case scenario, "only" one of eight people on earh would die. (Far from "game over for humanity" as you put it!!!) It would certainly matter greatly , whether you are, or you are not a NATO member...! USA believe, that we are idiots? Good buy - USA propaganda- you will get everyone in NATO, but you still migh experience what nuclear hell is... I regret Finish and Swedish people who do not realize how foolish it is to become a NATO member in times, when they can see themself , that Ukraine can defend itself!!! Ukraine can, Europe without USA can too of course... I prefer that Russia´s nukes aim mostly at USA where are nukes as well...., not on such a beautifull country like Finland or Sweden!
TH-cam in 2006: “Here at the zoo with the elephants” TH-cam in 2022: “Here a major former politician giving well thought out lectures about geopolitics”
I love this guy. Professor Stubb is a very cleaver lecturer. At the beginning of his talk he framed this as a question of American and European security interests. Having established that, the rest of his talk seemed to flow smoothly into a Kumbaya moment for the EU countries the US and the UK. “a new iron curtain with an Isolated aggressive and revisionist Russia”. He purposely ignores the white elephant in the room which what truly motivates US foreign policy. It’s about money, money and more money. Only a fool or ignorant person would believe that the US has any altruistic desire to promote freedom and democracy around the world. Security for the US means securing markets and eliminating competition. One final thought. Ask yourselves why when the Warsaw pact dissolved, NATO chose to expand itself. Was the new Russia a threat under Boris Yeltsin?
@@tnndll4294 You missed my point entirely. Stubb spent 18 minutes talking about European security as if that was an important issue. It is not. Russia posed no military threat to anyone in 1992. The US on the other hand.........
@@pseudonymousbeing987 Of course not. Perhaps I should have used more words but what I meant is that Russia was a militarily weak state after the breakup of the Soviet Union. They longed to be a part of the west and even adopted capitalism as their economic model. Then we had the Wolfowitz doctrine (1992) which changed everything. After the dissolution of the Warsaw pact,to the dismay of the Russians, the Czech republic , Hungary and Poland were added to an organization which for all intents and purposes should have gone the way of the dodo.Many are asking why didn't it?.Putin tried to reach out to the US in the early 2000's. Russia participated in Bush's anti terrorism campaign. Putin claimed in an interview with Oliver Stone: "During the meeting I said, 'We would consider an option that Russia might join NATO,'". "Clinton answered, 'I have no objection.' But the entire U.S. delegation got very nervous." More recently,after seeing NATO in action in Serbia, Libya, Syria , Afghanistan etc. , what what was Russia to think. Professor Stubb has stated his hidden desire that Russia be isolated. Biden wants to weaken Russia . He wants them out of the G20 . Lithuania is openly calling for regime change etc...George Carlin once said "It's a big club and you ain't in it". He may as well have been referring to Russia.
I enjoy your series Prof. Stubb. To me, it seems like here in the US we have many far right and far left candidates for political office but most to the voting public identify as moderate with slight leanings to the left or right. I'm sorry that we have a two party (viable) system that doesn't give us more choices.
We’re the only democracy in the world that has a winner take all system in every election. Most countries have a parliamentary system where you’re incentivized to vote your true beliefs. If they’re 3% popular, you get 3% representation. US is two party system where everyone has to compromise their beliefs to vote for one of the two parties.
That's gerrymandering, which both parties do. The good news is that both red and blue states are getting more and more interested in ranked ballots, which at the very least will produce more moderate winners, if not spur the development of alternative parties...
@@JonZiegler6 "Alternative parties" sounds promising until one remembers that they have historically been used as spoilers to push voters farther and farther and farther towards electing the "right". I use inverted commas because RepuGNicans are no longer honorable Republicans.
@@JonZiegler6 yeah ranked choice voting is trying to fix a critical flaw in US democracy. Winner take all system encourages playing to the few uninformed swing voters or big corporations so you can beat the other side, rather than just being genuine and getting your % of voters.
Thanks again for clarifying our present situation. it is somewhat comforting to hear you point out that NATO and America isre back. I live in Canada and look at my neighbours down South with some apprehension. I wish America well but I see so much polarization of Americans. There seems to be a lack of respect for their own institutions, that cannot communicate with each other in good faith. Politics has always been wheeling and dealing, tough but there was that gold thread of honour there. I don’t see this so much. I see the machination of dirty snide tricks in politics more…..or are they just exposed more? Not only in America bye the way but also in UK, land of my birth. Plus other countries that I am less qualified to judge well.
Trump did a lot of good for NATO. He added Montenegro and Macedonia to NATO and cut of Serbia from forming alliance with Russia. He sanctioned Nordstream 2, Biden gave it a green light. Trump sent weapons to Ukraine, Obama refused. Prof. Stubb doesn’t seem to be objective here… if there is a divide in America it’s just because we have democracy and freedom to express various opinions.
Well we8re having our own issues here man. Who has faith in the CBC now that it has become clear it is an instrument of propaganda? Why should we have faith in a Prime Minister who is a known bigot and liar? It’s not all sunshine and roses up here, we just do it have as much polarization. Of course it could be argued that the reason for this is that there is far more acceptance of authoritarianism here than our more liberal southern neighbours, who aren’t as ready to simply accept the dictate of the governing elites.
Our institutions suck. I don't disrespect them; I hate them more passionately than I can imagine. They aren't democratic, they aren't free, they're a parody run by privileged idiots. The culture is completely rotten. Even I can see it and I'm 23.
I really appreaciate that that you explain your credentials are, and where your perspektive come from. So many opinions and news which don't explicit their background or ethos. Good job
This series is brilliant. The US is undergoing a realignment of political constituencies at the moment. Who is a Republican, who is a Democrat, and who really does not have a home is changing. Republicans are becoming more populist and are eroding Democrats position with some constituencies like Hispanics and even African-Americans. One group that is looking like it will have no home when the dust settles is internationalists. America will probably be more inward-looking in the coming decades.
It would be a huge mistake to turn inward. The world is shrinking because of our technology. We cannot isolate ourselves from the world. The GOP is not "populist". It is becoming fascist with its refusal to respect the vote of the people. The GOP is becoming Russified in its embrace of insane conspiracy theories and paranoia.
Interesting. I actually think the opposite. I think that after the culture finishes shifting (millennials and Gen Z take over of the Boomer culture) that it will allow an outward-looking attitude again.
Thanks everyone for a non-partisan discussion on a critical point in the US especially affecting the rest of the world. I personally don't know which way things will break. It could even be that Trump or someone like him regains power and has the sense to press China by aligning deeper with NATO, which would seem unexpected right now.
Totally disagree. As a Reagan Rep I agree it is vital to take back our party, but more importantly reestablish American global leadership. It has already begun. Putin did more to undo the terrible damaged relationships with our allies than anyone! NATO and our Pacific allies are galvanized more than they have been in years. Possibly 20. Only the most extreme Fringe on the populist left and right want to stick our head in the sand. Esp since China is watching how we respond to this current crisis very carefully. And young people are very outward looking with issues as diverse as human rights, climate and educational access. (Esp for women, just look at sadly what's happening now in Afghanistan) Mr. STUBB reminds me of a Reaganesque worldview that Europe was lacking for many years. Love love ❤️ listening to him, how Lucky Finland was to have such a leader, and still major advocate for his country and the democratic world view. And YES 🇫🇮 in NATO, such a great country, and powerful innovative military future contributor. 👏 consistently pro free common values we all share!
Trump did a lot of good for NATO. He added Montenegro and Macedonia to NATO and cut of Serbia from forming alliance with Russia. He sanctioned Nordstrom 2, Biden gave it a green light. Trump sent weapons to Ukraine, Obama refused. Prof. Stubb doesn’t seem to be objective here…
Keep the different countries going. Even outer space would be an interesting episode too, given the decay of the International space station and moon and asteroid mining
A G A I N S T joining NATO : 1) Joining NATO means to serve as a target for Russia´s or China´s strategic nuclear missilles all the time in future, certainly not just untill Ukraine war would end. 2) USA may back off in case of nuclear war in Europe to save hundreds of their cities- than NATO would loose nuclear war in Europe. 3) USA would appreciate every new NATO land(Finland) to absorb some of Russia´s nukes, which otherwice would probably explode above USA´s cities in case of nuclear war between USA and Russia... 4) Finland managed alone in past, could manage in future. It is still far better option than to be incinereted instead of some USA´s cities one day...USA likes to be nuclear armed nation, on the other hand they can not defend themself against Russia´s nuclear forces, let alone to defend Europe against it! Finland would better to rely on Finish defensive means and not to mess with counting on USA and kind of stand up against nuclear superpowers like Russia and China to "fight" them one day... To "fight" them means - to absorb some of nukes which would otherwise explode above USA´cities very harmlessly for Finland.... 5) Joining NATO is the way how to assure the tottal destructin to Finland during a nuclear war between USA and Russia, or even between European NATO members and Russia... 6) If anybody thinks that USA is a morally "OK" NATO leader- kind of a "good guy" , than please try to google: "USA drone strikes" . You will find horrible crimes committed by USA on civilians including children in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen an other third world countries... 7) Pro NATO propaganda sounds like this: „No NATO country has ever been invaded. “ Russia has not been invaded either. It certainly does not prove, that NATO and Russia will not destroy each other one day without any invasion. 8) In case of nuclear war the destruction would be gruesome, but also very limited geographically to states involved. Joining NATO is possibly signing of a completely unnecesarry death sentence, since it is signing of being targeted by SATTAN II and more of similar machines of death instead of some USA´s mainland, which is warmly welcomed by USA.
Trump's US created a vacuum for China to fill by cancelling the Pacific trade proposals and only leaving China's long term initiative as the single one remaining. Islands are secure if you control the seas, but that means engagement and distant bases, shaping a friendlier world as land matters. That is what kept the British involved in continental Europe to prevent a land hegemon.
When no longer required to be involved in world affairs (aka post cold-war) the US national inclination is to self-isolate. 9/11 delayed that process by a decade and change. The self-isolation is speeding up. If China waits they can try and take Taiwan almost unopposed in a few years if they don't attack Japan in the process, otherwise, the US will get involved. However, China is in the early stages of a significant decline, perhaps terminal so time isn't on their side which makes them impulsive and dangerous in the short term.
@Tracchofyre Historical Britain had a strategy, post-Brexit is just chaotic government fueled by BS and willful ignorance and incompetence. The EU controls trade and standards, it's a collosal strategic error. But there were not thought out strategic ideas behind leaving, for corrupt national politicians and the newspaper barons it's about avoiding tax and their power, many others wanted a change and were sold flag waving make believe that's proven undeliverable. Now after posturing about the Pacific, threats from Arctic sea, Baltic and E.Europe caused by Russia are immediate.
@Tracchofyre Nah. UK didn't want to be hegemon. They wanted control of their own borders. If you can't even control your own borders, that's definitely a very warped definition of political sovereignty 🤦🏻♀️
Donald Trump's disparaging NATO and saying that the US should not defend Estonia, for example, was a severe blow to NATO's credibility. And warmly welcomed by Putin and Russia. Not a coincidence. Not that Trump understands these things, but he is capable of pleasing Putin.
I think when it comes to trump we need to judge both rhetoric and actions , yes his rhetoric was absolutely bad when it comes to europe and NATO , but his administration on actions and policies was better than obama no question : - Sanctions on nordstream 2 - sending lethal aid to ukraine "" Obama refused btw "" and believe me this aid was crucial to ukraine in the early days of the war - Pressure on Nato members to spend more on defense - Big support for the three seas initiative to help central and eastern europe - Expanding Nato in the balkans "" montenegro+macedonia"" making it impossible for russia and serbia to have any meaningful millitary alliance - Enforcing the red lines on syria
@@noureddine3648 Agreed. I think Trump was a dangerous wildcard and his rhetoric was awful for US partners. But he changed the dialogue around China and he set a hawkish tone around partner inputs that needed to wake European partners out of their slumber. He and Putin have done more for reminding us of the importance of fighting for democracy than any other leaders and that's mostly by showing us that it can be threatened and needs to be defended at all costs. As the previous poster said actions that occurred during Trump's presidency also did some important things. If he returns maybe he can double down on Biden quietly pushing to increase recognition for Taiwan.
We need a flag bearer of Western democratic values. US has made big mistakes in Iraq, Afghanistan, Latin America, etc. But don't forget the Marshall plan, helping Japan to prosper, etc. I am from Finland, US is absolutely our best ally available
First Gulf War based, intervention in Korea, Kosovo (stopping Yugoslavia committing genocide and ethnic cleansing), intervention in Grenada, Panama, even Libya was a good and just intervention and the issue was the follow through, or lack thereof Even if you don't give a shit about the US, these specific interventions have led to millions living in peace and democracy and saved lived. On the other hand, there are many shit interventions-- either unjustified or justified but leading to shit outcomes (like getting rid of an unarguably shit dictator and then leaving the country in civil war/ another dictator)
When the minority replaced the white people in America (soon, very soon), they will not give a shit about you, because they can barely take care of themselves then!!!
I'd love to see EU & US develop a transatlantic partnership similar to EU's common market concept (free movement of goods, capital, services, and people). Attempts towards something like that, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), were halted by Trump in January 2017. Now that he's thankfully gone, hopefully negotiations on something similar can be revived again at some point.
I very much doubt that. Free trade is something that is disliked by both parties in the United States now. With the large economic disruptions that are taking place right now, I can't see people very keen on the idea of a common market.Especially if migration is involved.
Free trade is what f*cked us & created the geopolitical economic giant that is China. We should have free trade with small countries who could never challenge our power. Not with large countries who could usurp American dominance.
Texas here: Free trade (including at transatlantic reduced tariff zone or even something stronger) is wildly unpopular in the United States on both sides of the political spectrum. The right wing is worried about ceding control to other countries. The left wing is worried about losing jobs to other countries. The economic events of the past two years ("supply chain disruptions") have further hardened these positions. With goods from the large East Asian country now often delayed, unavailable, or increased in price, there is constant talk in the United States of "reshoring" (a shorthand for reversing offshoring production). If there was say 60% opposition to free trade in the years before 2020, there is probably close to 80% opposition today. The above analysis is separate from whether or not an Atlantic Common Market would be a good thing or a bad thing.
@@Patrick462 - Imagine a certain East Asian country, that manufactures, and supplies over 90% of the United States' pharmaceutical products, and then threatens to withhold these goods, as a form of political blackmail. Can you blame 80% of the U.S.' population for demanding the "reshoring" and domestic manufacture of these products?
Despite involvement in futile and costly wars, and isolationist political leanings, the 'system' just works. The USA has been, and will be in the future, a beacon of democracy.
14:42 - 15:04 but there is hope America can grow beyond instant gratification, short term thinking, etc … of February 24, 2022 through current times (as of 05/13/2022) have shown, the validity of Churchill’s statement about US holds true to this day “ You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else” along with further proving we are capable of uniting when needed 🇺🇸💙✊🏾💯🙏🏾
Do a next video on EU. Your third video gave an overall view, but do a video with more details. Hos is power shared among EU countries? Who is strong, who is weak, how balance between strong and weak works? Who can adhere to euro currency, who can't, what are the steps? How is geopolitic views and diplomacy represented? Etc.
The EU must establish its own unified military with soldiers from every country in the Union for its own self determination and self interests, Ukraine wants to join the EU and shouldn't have that right taken by Russia, international capitalism has been the ruling force of the world, most Americans have a lower standard of living than most people in the EU, with a military Budget over 700 billion dollars we can't afford to fight all the world's conflicts
Yes - I think the high cost of health care is one example where the US does not fare as well as Europe. However, that may be because the system is privatized. If EU had unified military, nothing could threaten them.
Trump was right to remind the Europeans to stick to their promise to spend at least 2% of their GDP for defence wich they did not fulfill. He simply told them to give their fair share. He was in this respect noot to blame, but the Europeans.
Germany and many other NATO countries put less that 2% of their GDP towards their armies. They were counting on the protection from the USA, which is investing a lot more towards their army. No wonder Americans lost interest in NATO, they were being used by Europe. Europeans themselves didn’t care about their own security. They ignored Russian threat and made themselves completely dependent on Russian energy. Now they are looking to the US to fix their mistakes… Despite all that I sure hope Europe and America develop good relationships. Strength in numbers!
Also, don't forget, the US tried to get Germany to buy LNG from the US, its ally. But Merkel said, "no we'll take the Russian gas and oil." This behavior and the EU's failure to spend on its own defence told the US that it did not have an equal partner in the EU. It had a partner that wanted to spend on its own infrastructure, and give generous social subsidies like healthcare, and young retirement ages with great pensions. Benefits like these don't exist in an unsubsidized economy. Meanwhile the US pays to keep the wolf away from your doorstep. Well what happens to things when the US pulls back? EU pensions decrease, retirement age went up and you know what's next, don't you? Healthcare. That's when the pain will be felt, quite literally!
A G A I N S T joining NATO : 1) Joining NATO means to serve as a target for Russia´s or China´s strategic nuclear missilles all the time in future, certainly not just untill Ukraine war would end. 2) USA may back off in case of nuclear war in Europe to save hundreds of their cities- than NATO would loose nuclear war in Europe. 3) USA would appreciate every new NATO land(Finland) to absorb some of Russia´s nukes, which otherwice would probably explode above USA´s cities in case of nuclear war between USA and Russia... 4) Finland managed alone in past, could manage in future. It is still far better option than to be incinereted instead of some USA´s cities one day...USA likes to be nuclear armed nation, on the other hand they can not defend themself against Russia´s nuclear forces, let alone to defend Europe against it! Finland would better to rely on Finish defensive means and not to mess with counting on USA and kind of stand up against nuclear superpowers like Russia and China to "fight" them one day... To "fight" them means - to absorb some of nukes which would otherwise explode above USA´cities very harmlessly for Finland.... 5) Joining NATO is the way how to assure the tottal destructin to Finland during a nuclear war between USA and Russia, or even between European NATO members and Russia... 6) If anybody thinks that USA is a morally "OK" NATO leader- kind of a "good guy" , than please try to google: "USA drone strikes" . You will find horrible crimes committed by USA on civilians including children in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen an other third world countries... 7) Pro NATO propaganda sounds like this: „No NATO country has ever been invaded. “ Russia has not been invaded either. It certainly does not prove, that NATO and Russia will not destroy each other one day without any invasion. 8) In case of nuclear war the destruction would be gruesome, but also very limited geographically to states involved. Joining NATO is possibly signing of a completely unnecesarry death sentence, since it is signing of being targeted by SATTAN II and more of similar machines of death instead of some USA´s mainland, which is warmly welcomed by USA.
I like this series, it is nice information. Thank you for that! Even though I wonder how this Trump case for demanding EU NATO members to spend their agreed share for defense, gets such a bad rep for Trump. In my opinion he was completely on the point, especially with today's situation with Russia. EU members clearly should have been more careful with their foreign policy with Russia. If you play these wargames a bit further and you end up in a situation where China and USA gets into conflict because of Taiwan or something, can we still count on just USA? In my opinion, we should be able to pull our own weight here in Europe in that kind of case.
@@sap268 It's not even how he said that was wrong. His sole motivation was to weaken NATO and threaten it with reasons why America should no longer be a part of it. He could give 2 sh*ts about Europe being 'careful' re Russia.
Russia asked to join NATO at the end of cold war, the west laughed, Putin asked to join NATO again the west laughed. Russia knew then they were on their own.
Russia was never willing to abide by the same rules as every other country joining NATO. They did then and will always have delusions of their own grandeur.
@@kkpenney444 no! your missing the point Russia asked to join NATO, and NATO laughed at the idea, show me link or evidence as where Russia said they wouldn't follow the NATO rules, like a good propagandists your making your BS up.
I love Alexander... when he gave 1 of 3 reasons I right away knew the 2. would be Lehman Brothers and the 3. would be Trump... I really hoped he would get EPP nomination for European Commission president
@@itlearner1175 Im from Slovenia... we had very good 1. lockdown in spring of 2020, but when we had 2. lockdown in winter of 2020 nobody gave a S#!T about it and a lot of people died.... so I dont have the right to comment on USA handeling of Covid
One thing I appreciated in this presentation is the honesty about the speaker. He admits he is pro American and I Have to say it is obvious. . I prefer debate when two visions are clearly defined. Because when we don’t accept that other people don’t share Your ideas, your methods of using those ideas, how culture and identity define people we get nowhere. U.S. definition of freedom is questionable at best and their value system is also something to look at. So I understand that to prefer one system over the other is not what’s happening right now it’s only power and U.S will do anything to keep it, which she has done s9 far. Si saying that foreign policy is not one of their priority is really a lack of honesty. Their military industry is fuelling wars. everywhere with Military base. So please have the decency to mention it.
how about the unequal and expensive education system? some ivory league people get a decent education even though they often dont make the most out of it. (bush jr member of skulls and bones, and had access to the finest education - yet was dumb as a brick... donald is dumb as a brick and also a ruthless criminal - so good education doesnt even stick when it is available.... and masses of not so fortunate will never learn how science works or that a world championship would actually required more than one country to take part in it ;-) infrastructure is not just highways and bridges. now look at stubb - prime example of the finnish eduation system. This guy would never declare victory on an aircraft carrier 20 years before his troops pull out somewhere...
Yet again, another solid analysis of a complex world by AS. What would be Alex’s perspective if it weren’t Ukraine, but Taiwan at the centre of Chinese invasion. Would the world and NATO respond in a similar sympathetic manner? Does China have a depth of resources to pursue a campaign or is it an untested power that is as vulnerable like Russia has been in this current war?
The latter. It would be handicapped by rhetoric and face a harder challenge because Taiwan's military is more efficient and modern and, of course, it's an island.
Great Presentation, but like all western intellectuals what he omits is very important. I lived each moment of what he speaks on, I really don't need book I was there. For the most part what he said could as easily been learned by the evening news.
Yeah I agree the part about the curtain dividing Russia from the west but it’s not an iron curtain because Putin is not Stalin. Maybe a smoke curtain or a rag curtain but not iron.
Excellent analysis in my opinion. Tho I see the US issues arising before 11 Sept 2001, which was triggered by the following. I see the salient issues starting long before in the form of turning a blind eye to our abuse of power in many venues and by many mechanisms over many years. With great power comes great responsibility, and the shouldering of responsibility has been insufficient.
An episode on the UK, who have had a vociferous and principled response to the invasion of Ukraine, along with the Brexit phenomenon and it's not as close relationship to Europe would be interesting. They seem like they are the bulldog for the USA. The first to bark and growl, waking up the USA to respond more quickly in a given direction.
It's a weird feeling, we went through a lot of turbulence and are still feeling the effects of Brexit (and will probably continue to feel it for years to come) but it gives me hope that we can still contribute and collaborate with a liberal and free Europe. We might have left the EU but as far as I'm concerned, we never left Europe. 🇬🇧🇪🇺
There is no way in which Britain 'barked and growled and woke up the U.S.' re this conflict. America was clear-eyed about Russia's intentions as early as last fall. The stakes are not remotely similar as the U.S. bears much of the responsibility in preventing escalation.
@@kkpenney444 I politely disagree. Other than nothing that I said "seems" the English were the fastest and loudest at the beginning. Also, note how early the Prime minister had visited Kiyv. These points are not meant as a criticism of the USA in any way.
As a European living in the US, I am very thankful to have Anthony Blinken leading the state department at these times. Biden is not the most inspiring leader, but he has assembled quite a competent cabinet.
Another very interesting and thought provoking video from Professor Stubb. However, the problems faced by the US have their origins in the late 18th Century. As originally conceived, the US was more like Switzerland or the Holy Roman Empire than like a modern true federation, such as Australia or Germany. The political system was supposed to prevent partisan politics, but almost from the beginning, by Washington's second term, partisanship was in and becoming vicious. Separation of church and state was supposed to prevent European problems like the Thirty Years War, but instead of religious intolerance weakening as happened in Europe, it led to religiously intolerant sects growing undetected in the dark, only to spew forth in full nastiness recently. Party primary elections that were introduced in the last century to make parties more responsive to their membership, have, instead, come to be dominated by ideological extremists [at least on the Republican side] dominating the primaries, and forcing the entire party toward more extreme right-wing positions. The US is, for these and other reasons, at an inflection point, as suggested by Prof. Stubb. I hope the US continues to be the secular, constitutional, democratic republic it has become.
As long as Donald Trump is gone America will be fine! He was a trouble maker and he never shut up! A president should be seen and not heard so much. We entrust our president to keep us safe and sound! I just want the rite man for the job and it’s not about party. Where Trump divided a country Biden brought a world together! Thank you professor 🇺🇸 Meravigliosi 🥰
thank you alexander once more and looking forward to the next episode But let me ask a question: what did you mean by stating that the USA has weak infrasturcture? thank you for your brillant lectures that to me could be even a little bit longer...
And also car dependency. Instead of neat organized public transport system as in Europe or Japan you build 10 lanes of highway that lead to traffic jams that are solved by bulding 4 more lanes.
I have a feeling things will blow up after the mid-terms no matter who wins, and it's not going to get better until one side or the other capitulates. However, after that happens, recovery economically as well as politically will be relatively quick. Personally I find it hilarious that the US can while being almost completely internally divided, head the NATO alliance to assist Ukraine's struggle with 74% approval of that effort, while still keeping China in check when they would love nothing more than to secure that critical first island chain while going through COVID lockdowns.
In 60 AD Apostle Saint Andrew traveled to the area of Kiev, preached, and said, one day a great city would be built here with many churches to the glory of God. Today there is a church to Saint Andrew in Kiev. The peoples in the area were Slavic. Kyi, Shchek and Khoryv, three brothers and the sister Lybid founded Kiev in 482 AD, Kiev was named after the older brother Kyi. Kiev the older brother was King. Herodotus wrote that Hercules had founded this land. The Rus were Viking tribes that settled peacefully in Kiev as far back as 750 AD with the Slavs there, 400 years before Moskva existed. The name Russia, coming from the city Moskva, has no connection to the RUS. Russia coming from Moskva started with Batu Kahn much later as a vasal under Mongolian rule. All the early Czars were Mongolian and of no connection to the RUS. The Rus were with the Slavs to the south in Kiev. Moskva were Finnish Urgic Tribes; Mosk means cow and Va water, which are Finnish names. There was no RUS there. The ethnic background of Moskva is Finnish-Urgic and Mongolian. The Rus developed the religion, city Kiev, alphabet, churches, and had its saints. The founder of Kievian Rus (800) or the Rus was a Viking named Askold or Oskold (Norse) from Sweden; not Oleg as in the Russian story. Kievian Rus exists long Before Novgorod and Oleg’s arrival there. Askold is the Slavic name. Oskold, the first King of Kievian Rus was in Kiev before Oleg in Novgorod. Oskold had 200 ships and 20,000 warriors. Oskold was baptized in Constantinople (128 years before Volodymyr) and sent the first bishop back to Kiev. Oskold and Dir were the first Dynasty of Kievian Rus. Askold rules from the 40-60s and Dir to the 80s. Askold is buried in Kiev and the first Kievian Christian King & Dynasty. Oleg followed coming from Sweden through Novgorod and was a pagan. Russia as named today started in the city of Moskva over 400 years later after Kievian Rus or Rus. From Kiev, the capitol of Rus, Kievian culture was spread, much like the Greeks Hellenized the known world, or like the British anglicized the world by the English language. This process does not make Moskva to become RUS in as much as Persian are not Greek. How we are misled by a name; Russia. The capitol of the RUS has always been Kiev. There is no other RUS and no RUS in Moskva. Many say Ukraine began recently; but the culture of the RUS is Kievian RUS, both culture and ethnic background. Ukraine is a name given by Poland meaning outer lands. The land of the RUS before the Mongolian invasion was very large. The name RUS is a Norse name which means men that row; there are no men that row in Moskva. So Moskva adopted the name Russia while being a Mongolian vassal, essentially traitor to the RUS; and all the Czars were Mongolian-Finnish. The Culture of the Mongolian was centralized power, and that cultural imprint was passed on to present day Russia. Ukraine’s real name should be Kievian RUS, or Kievskarus! Russia began in Moskva by Batu Kahn and Novgorod conquered much later, still no connection to the Rus. Putin & Lavrov should be ashamed of themselves, the USSR was an occupation; it never had the status of a sovereign state and due process of law that would be associated with a free society. Even today the mentality of the gulag exists. There is no freedom of press and speech, people are arrested for speech, there is no due process of law, and the religion is state run making it a totalitarian theocracy. As such, it did not deserve to exist in a free world; and history has shown such totalitarian organizations fail over time and author in many gulags. The true culture of Russia is Finno-Ugric and Mongolian, having nothing to do with the RUS (Kievian), expect borrowed as in the sense of Hellenized or Anglicized "forms" as a comparative reference. The centralized form of Russian politics is a very Mongolian imprint on culture. The actions of Putin seem to be another Mongolian invasion of Kiev; here I suggest as to the correct metaphor. I believe so. Putin & Lavrov insistence to have purview over eastern Europe also seems like paying tribute to the Mongolian Horde. Moskva started as an agglomeration of Finnish tribes, combining a Finnish name meaning cows water and developed by Mongolian culture. Mosk means cow and Va means water. The RUS are men that row, Vikings, Norse, established Kiev 400 years before (750 AD) Moskva even thought to exist. The name Russia for current nation is totally inappropriate. The current Russia started in Moskva; how misleading is the name Russia coming from Moskva that has no connection to the RUS. All the lands should be returned to Kiev; the West of Russia to Finland, and the East to Mongolia. Russia’s place on the globe appears as a temporary aberration in my view. To use threats of Nukes publicly strikes at the heart as adolescent behaviour; surely any nation or person that issues such threats and being an ally to such while not even having war imposed on them is not fit to rule. This would include allies of Russia. Oh yes, I remember, Russia didn't invent the bomb, they stole it in the 1940's and gave it to Kurchatov. Russia struggles with an identity crisis since its beginnings unoriginal to the ethnic groups. Its errors are numerous, 50 million killed by Stalin in WW2, allied to the Nazis to kill the Poles for their defeat in WW2, Holodomor where millions of Ukrainians were killed and grain stolen, and constant antagonist with Europe. We even have the Holy Mother announcing Russia’s errors at Fatima. Russia is a Mongolian culture and all the first Czars were Mongolian and Batu Kahn is the author. Oskold was the grandson of Ragnar the king of Sweden, his name is old Norse and spoke old Norse, the name Rus is old Norse, he settled peacefully in Kiev and the Slavs made him king, he brought Christianity to Kiev with his son dir...his burial mound is where St Nicholas church is built, Oleg wasn’t even in Novgorod when this happened, and Oleg is not a Rus nor old Norse name. The Slavs called Oskold the name Askold. After came Dir, Oleg was a pagan who assassinated Dir, Oskold becomes the first dynasty...later when the line of kings get to Vladimir, he is captured at a trading post by the Mongols, the post is called Moskva, and the king killed. Moskva as a city was a Mongolian invention, and Novgorod becomes a part of that Russia by conquest, although having nothing to do with the Rus. Oskold line is Ragnar, ironside, Oskold from the King of Sweden Ragnar. Oleg is via Rurik coming much later. The accounts of Oskold are within the time, Al Mamun an Arab writer of the time wrote of Oskold, the Russian chronicles come hundreds of years later. In much the same way accounts of relevant history are better understood by those of the times, much like the Bible, dating to the original times makes the account authentic. The Russian chronicles are merely a tale and inaccurate. Kiev was a city over 1000 years before Russia even existed. Kiev was Kievian Rus before Novgorod and when Oleg arrived. Putin is kidding himself if he thinks any part of Ukraine belongs to Russia. We can see that Israel belongs to the Jews, similarly all the lands around Kiev of Kievian Rus belong to Kiev as a single nation and city state. Russia's beginnings are a wanting child begun as a captive insurgency having nothing of its own; a captive state that was reeking in servitude to Mongolia and invented by Mongolia. The entire culture of Russia from Moscow is Mongolian centralized power, a pagan culture of no empathy and Christianity. The Christianity is tainted as a state religion or theocracy and politicized. History is often obscured by being written by the ones in charge. The history of Ukraine has been obscured by the Soviet Occupation and cultural appropriations. Moscow in an attempt to appropriate a history not its own, rewrote the narrative of history to cover up its compromised origins; Kiev and Ukraine is a history much older and more civilized; making contributions to civilization. Russian despotism becomes the blueprint, foundation & model for every despot nation, look at its allies; the error of its ways has spread throughout the globe; much like the message from the Holy Mother at Fatima. Those that are sympathetic to Russian atrocities can find similarities in their own histories. Ukraine has a democracy at a local level Moscow never had and fears. Russian boundless ignorance is a type often found in the poorest of nations, and usually the poorest have a history of the hardest tyrants over them that also inflict poverty, physical and spiritual, on others they attempt to subjugate, a reflection of their own lives, an abomination of desolation. Askold was in Constantinople in 860 and Oleg arrived in Novgorod not until 862. The Arabs referred to Askold as the Slavic King or King of the Slavs which he had been for a while. Pontius says Askold brings Christianity to Kiev from Constantinople and a bishop. Ragnar the Norse King of Sweden was born in 767 AD, his son Bjorn ironside was born in 796 AD, and grandson Oskold (Askold) was born in 820 AD. Askold arrived in Kiev in 840 and had a son Dir, Both become King and the first Christian dynasty. Askold dies and gets a burial mound in a park in Kiev. Dir follows as King. Dir is assassinated by Oleg who is a pagan. Nobody knows who Rurik is or who the father is . Oleg is a generation away from Askold. Olga of Kiev builds a church on Askold’ s burial grounds. Pontius of Constantinople says Askold brings a Bishop and Christianity to Kiev. Russia much later is a Mongolian invention..........
The sub-prime mortgage crisis was not caused by free markets. In the 90s bill Clinton forced banks to loan money to people who had no opportunity to pay that money back. To stay solvent, they bundled those together and sold them around. When those liabilities dropped the bottom out of the biggest banks, the Government forced every bank, even those who hadn't bundled them and gotten themselves in trouble to take a bailout. It was government intervention that caused the downturn, and this downturn now. If the government bounded the economy and stayed out of the rest of it, the US economy especially would look like it did in 2019.
Great historical explanation but was Trump removing America from NATO or was Trump just acknowledging that Europe had already left NATO? Many Americans who were not Trump supporters resented Europe not supporting NATO especially Germany.
My first impression is that each country governments should put their own people needs first. Affordable insurance, education and infrastructure. You can’t play both fronts internal and external. Not enough resources. The US debt is crippling its economy. The taxpayers should have a say on how their money is being spent.
The American Right-wing is made of two factions but they both see Europe as a theme park to visit. One faction is basically the same believe structure as the Taliban or Iranian government, just Christian flavored. The other faction are just a bunch of no-no-Germans with different flags and symbols if they're smart, the SAME 1940s symbols and flags if they aren't smart. If Europe as a theme park shuts down, they'll be sad briefly and then go somewhere else, or will be gleefully stomping on Europe's face because they believe "If no one stops me, what I'm doing is good." It's bad for everyone except them instantly while still being bad for them eventually. A caveat here is there's a subset of the first group that basically just worships holding on to money instead of Christianity, but there aren't many of them right now. The American left-wing is made of two factions. One is the spiritual successor to the hippies despite having zero connection to them. Very "we should all hold hands and be happy" without saying it. The other faction is the old people that worked with Europe back in the cold war, or people who grew up believing in the connection and are only interested in personal profits. They all vaguely support to strongly support Europe, but don't get confused. 2 of the four look at it as a source of money and entertainment, as soon as that stops their support ends. Of the last two groups one is so harmless as to be self destructive, the last group sees everything as needing to be conquered and subjugated. Understanding these four groups will help make the USA's behavior make more sense. It's how the US will wage a bloody campaign somewhere, but then come back trying to help the people they were shooting 10 minuets ago.
Brilliant points i agree fully America and Europe very strong alliance and today is been so strong and united than ever before I believe it will continue that way for decades to come EuroAmerica stronger together
This series is brilliant! So easy to digest and understand- thank you
Yeah this guy is a true gent, and very smart
Yes, that’s the word I was looking for: “brilliant”!
Very ignorant, does not understand Americans
Thank you Prof. Stubb. Your lectures really paint the picture.
I could listen to this man all day.
Another OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION. Bravo. And thank you for your disclosures at the beginning of your talk. Your work is being watched worldwide for accuracy. As a soldier for 33 years, I know the critical nature of disinformation, deception and "spin". You are a breath of "fresh air" and accuracy in the spring. Col (Ret) Glenn Ekblad.
That certainly does give you an interesting perspective, Colonel. I totally agree with your assessment of this excellent lecture series. However, I have a question: What army did you serve in? Your last name sounds like it might be Scandinavian. But that, of course, doesn't mean you couldn't also be American.🤔 As a lifelong student of history, particularly military history and International Relations, I've found this lecture series to be highly enlightening I really enjoy Professor Stubbs well-organized and methodical style.👍
It's always good to hear that there's people from other countries that like America. I agree with Professor Stubb's analysis of the moments in time that have caused America's hegemony to be threatened, but I think some important aspects have been left out from the point of view of an American (probably due to time).
US hegemony has been incredibly costly to the US middle class. I think that it instinctually feels that maintaining world stability through US military might benefits other countries more than it benefits the American consumer. The US dollar being the world's reserved currency means that the dollar's value is protected for the world's rich over the US citizen.
I think this is what the slogan "make America great again" actually means. Its the strong isolationist current that has always ran through the American psyche rearing its head again. The Ukraine war has snapped us out of that. Realizing that though US hegemony may be costly to us, the alternative is probably far worse.
America needs to focus on growing our economy. That will better help us project power.
I can't agree with your analysis. Firstly, American hemogeny based on military power relies on industry and govt spending which almost exclusively is located in the US, so it's hard to argue that govt spending on the military is going to negatively influence the iddlr class. Secondly, and connected to the previous point, the issues with the American middle class began in the 1980s, after 30 years of cold war military industrial complex, so hard to argue that magically the same thing that had been successful for decades suddenly stopped working (especially as the military budget came down in 5he 90s as the situation began to worsen for the middle class.
The reason for the issues with the American middle class have nothing to do with American hemogeny, but rather increased globalization. Manufacturing left, and then services. Meanwhile, living in America is expensive, more so than in Europe for the middle class. Pile on top of this higher costs for higher education (due to the need for more administers), and this is what has caused issues for the American middle class.
The answer would therefore seem to be less globalization, but rather the opposite. America needs to invest in infrastructure, as well as tech that it can export like computer chips, renewable energy, ect. This is what will actually keep America great, IE basically nothing trump did nor promised...
@@JonZiegler6 I'm no Trump fan but to be fair he definitely went after China and globalisation in general.
@@JonZiegler6 I agree that the issues to the American middle class are mainly caused by other issues. The military industrial complex creates more of an upper class job in my opinion. I'm talking about the tax burden that the middle class bears while reaping no benefits from that tax.
There's a reason that the Europeans don't like spending on military and its because the tax money is better spent on services that help their populations. The US middle class doesn't have that luxury.
Thanks for the well thought out reply.
@@JonZiegler6 I am not an American but I have lived around the world and used to have a place in DC and have worked on both the East and West coast of the US. So I have some perspective as an outsider and some knowledge of how the nation works compared to others.
I agree the hollowing out of the middle class came via US success in the post-war that led to strong productivity gains and strong wages. That plus faster international transport allowed for offshoring looking for tax breaks and lower labor costs. Given that we aren't going to get rid of international transport, globalization is here to stay. Do you want to pay more for clothing and other goods if you can get a low cost option via Amazon today that was made in a foreign factory? Most consumers want to save their money. So when companies re-shore in the US it will be based around shorter supply lines, greater automation, and better productivity. It still won't bring good jobs back to middle America in most cases. Yes, the US has terrible crumbling infrastructure and unfortunately all forms of government spending are subject to capture by industry and/or interest groups so more spending on healthcare in the US doesn't deliver the returns that can be achieved in many European countries or nations such as Australia. It is a dilemma that I can't see being solved for now.
Brilliant! This is great content, much appreciated.
Another masterclass from a true expert. Thanks Professor, and please keep posting!
Kiitos professor Alex! 🇨🇦🇫🇮🇺🇦
I have been sooo looking forward to the next episode!! Please keep them coming!! You are so great to listen to in this platform!
Fantastic mini series thank you 😀 🙏
Very interesting insight and well explained.
Thank you
Thank you very much for this series. It has clarified the current war, as well as the power-balance(s) that's currently forming around the world - in a clear, non-alarmistic and rational way.
And greetings from your neighbor Sweden. (Although I understand you're currently living in Florence.)
Beauty, love the series
Thank you Professor Stubb, an excelent lecture.
That's why your English is so very good..😀 I've watched a few of your videos now and really like them. The points you bring up make a lot of sense. Keep up the good work! 👍
Great series. Enlightening viewpoints!
Absolutely love this series! So enlightening! Thank you for taking your time and educating us on geopolitics.. it’s so interesting and absolutely fascinating hearing it from someone of your level in the political world.
A G A I N S T joining NATO : 1) Joining NATO means to serve as a target for Russia´s or China´s strategic nuclear missilles all the time in future, certainly not just untill Ukraine war would end. 2) USA may back off in case of nuclear war in Europe to save hundreds of their cities- than NATO would loose nuclear war in Europe. 3) USA would appreciate every new NATO land(Finland) to absorb some of Russia´s nukes, which otherwice would probably explode above USA´s cities in case of nuclear war between USA and Russia... 4) Finland managed alone in past, could manage in future. It is still far better option than to be incinereted instead of some USA´s cities one day...USA likes to be nuclear armed nation, on the other hand they can not defend themself against Russia´s nuclear forces, let alone to defend Europe against it! Finland would better to rely on Finish defensive means and not to mess with counting on USA and kind of stand up against nuclear superpowers like Russia and China to "fight" them one day... To "fight" them means - to absorb some of nukes which would otherwise explode above USA´cities very harmlessly for Finland.... 5) Joining NATO is the way how to assure the tottal destructin to Finland during a nuclear war between USA and Russia, or even between European NATO members and Russia... 6) If anybody thinks that USA is a morally "OK" NATO leader- kind of a "good guy" , than please try to google: "USA drone strikes" . You will find horrible crimes committed by USA on civilians including children in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen an other third world countries... 7) Pro NATO propaganda sounds like this: „No NATO country has ever been invaded. “ Russia has not been invaded either. It certainly does not prove, that NATO and Russia will not destroy each other one day without any invasion. 8) In case of nuclear war the destruction would be gruesome, but also very limited geographically to states involved. Joining NATO is possibly signing of a completely unnecesarry death sentence, since it is signing of being targeted by SATTAN II and more of similar machines of death instead of some USA´s mainland, which is warmly welcomed by USA.
@@mirekslechta7161 - Thinking there can be a safe “sideline” to stand on in a nuclear war or that such a war will only harm American or NATO aligned cities, represents a fundamental lack of understanding of the devastation a nuclear exchange will bring. If nukes are launched, it will be game-over for humanity. The luckiest people will be those incinerated instantly, not those dying a slow horrible death from the effects of the blasts.
@@The1DUIGuy Who told you that-USA propaganda? ? The estimates on how many people would die if all warheads would be used (including what China , India, Izrael Pakisan have) is: If there was a global nuclear war, the death toll would be from between 100 million to 1 billion depending on who you ask, what day of the week it is, and which way the wind is blowing. It means, even in worst case scenario, "only" one of eight people on earh would die. (Far from "game over for humanity" as you put it!!!) It would certainly matter greatly , whether you are, or you are not a NATO member...! USA believe, that we are idiots? Good buy - USA propaganda- you will get everyone in NATO, but you still migh experience what nuclear hell is... I regret Finish and Swedish people who do not realize how foolish it is to become a NATO member in times, when they can see themself , that Ukraine can defend itself!!! Ukraine can, Europe without USA can too of course... I prefer that Russia´s nukes aim mostly at USA where are nukes as well...., not on such a beautifull country like Finland or Sweden!
TH-cam in 2006: “Here at the zoo with the elephants”
TH-cam in 2022: “Here a major former politician giving well thought out lectures about geopolitics”
But cat videos are still just as popular today as they were in 2006.
I like this guy I wish I would’ve followed his career when he was the Prime Minister of Finland but I got to know him now he’s very talented young man
I agree. Except for the young part 🙂
@@Fishamble 👍🇫🇮🍺
54 is young? Then I 40 something am a child. 😄
@@tkai6055 🧸
@Tracchofyre 👴
Pure excellence. I binged all 7 episodes.
Love your videos!! Keep them coming 🇸🇪🇫🇮🇺🇦
I love this guy. Professor Stubb is a very cleaver lecturer. At the beginning of his talk he framed this as a question of American and European security interests. Having established that, the rest of his talk seemed to flow smoothly into a Kumbaya moment for the EU countries the US and the UK. “a new iron curtain with an Isolated aggressive and revisionist Russia”. He purposely ignores the white elephant in the room which what truly motivates US foreign policy. It’s about money, money and more money. Only a fool or ignorant person would believe that the US has any altruistic desire to promote freedom and democracy around the world. Security for the US means securing markets and eliminating competition. One final thought. Ask yourselves why when the Warsaw pact dissolved, NATO chose to expand itself. Was the new Russia a threat under Boris Yeltsin?
K_GB resumed power less than 10 years after collapse of SU.
@@tnndll4294 You missed my point entirely. Stubb spent 18 minutes talking about European security as if that was an important issue. It is not. Russia posed no military threat to anyone in 1992. The US on the other hand.........
@@bigmaristuff
Do you believe the nineties is all that defines Russia?
@@pseudonymousbeing987 Of course not. Perhaps I should have used more words but what I meant is that Russia was a militarily weak state after the breakup of the Soviet Union. They longed to be a part of the west and even adopted capitalism as their economic model. Then we had the Wolfowitz doctrine (1992) which changed everything. After the dissolution of the Warsaw pact,to the dismay of the Russians, the Czech republic , Hungary and Poland were added to an organization which for all intents and purposes should have gone the way of the dodo.Many are asking why didn't it?.Putin tried to reach out to the US in the early 2000's. Russia participated in Bush's anti terrorism campaign. Putin claimed in an interview with Oliver Stone: "During the meeting I said, 'We would consider an option that Russia might join NATO,'". "Clinton answered, 'I have no objection.' But the entire U.S. delegation got very nervous." More recently,after seeing NATO in action in Serbia, Libya, Syria , Afghanistan etc. , what what was Russia to think. Professor Stubb has stated his hidden desire that Russia be isolated. Biden wants to weaken Russia . He wants them out of the G20 . Lithuania is openly calling for regime change etc...George Carlin once said "It's a big club and you ain't in it". He may as well have been referring to Russia.
Another russian troll trying to justify russias actions. Get lost.
The musical intro and outro reveal a great deal of concoction.
Thanks for sharing your understanding in geopolitics
I enjoy your series Prof. Stubb. To me, it seems like here in the US we have many far right and far left candidates for political office but most to the voting public identify as moderate with slight leanings to the left or right. I'm sorry that we have a two party (viable) system that doesn't give us more choices.
We’re the only democracy in the world that has a winner take all system in every election. Most countries have a parliamentary system where you’re incentivized to vote your true beliefs. If they’re 3% popular, you get 3% representation. US is two party system where everyone has to compromise their beliefs to vote for one of the two parties.
That's gerrymandering, which both parties do. The good news is that both red and blue states are getting more and more interested in ranked ballots, which at the very least will produce more moderate winners, if not spur the development of alternative parties...
@@JonZiegler6 "Alternative parties" sounds promising until one remembers that they have historically been used as spoilers to push voters farther and farther and farther towards electing the "right". I use inverted commas because RepuGNicans are no longer honorable Republicans.
Lol no. By european standards your "far left" candidates are centrists at best.
@@JonZiegler6 yeah ranked choice voting is trying to fix a critical flaw in US democracy. Winner take all system encourages playing to the few uninformed swing voters or big corporations so you can beat the other side, rather than just being genuine and getting your % of voters.
Thanks again for clarifying our present situation. it is somewhat comforting to hear you point out that NATO and America isre back. I live in Canada and look at my neighbours down South with some apprehension. I wish America well but I see so much polarization of Americans. There seems to be a lack of respect for their own institutions, that cannot communicate with each other in good faith. Politics has always been wheeling and dealing, tough but there was that gold thread of honour there. I don’t see this so much. I see the machination of dirty snide tricks in politics more…..or are they just exposed more? Not only in America bye the way but also in UK, land of my birth. Plus other countries that I am less qualified to judge well.
Trump did a lot of good for NATO. He added Montenegro and Macedonia to NATO and cut of Serbia from forming alliance with Russia. He sanctioned Nordstream 2, Biden gave it a green light. Trump sent weapons to Ukraine, Obama refused. Prof. Stubb doesn’t seem to be objective here… if there is a divide in America it’s just because we have democracy and freedom to express various opinions.
Well we8re having our own issues here man. Who has faith in the CBC now that it has become clear it is an instrument of propaganda? Why should we have faith in a Prime Minister who is a known bigot and liar? It’s not all sunshine and roses up here, we just do it have as much polarization. Of course it could be argued that the reason for this is that there is far more acceptance of authoritarianism here than our more liberal southern neighbours, who aren’t as ready to simply accept the dictate of the governing elites.
Our institutions suck. I don't disrespect them; I hate them more passionately than I can imagine. They aren't democratic, they aren't free, they're a parody run by privileged idiots. The culture is completely rotten. Even I can see it and I'm 23.
I really appreaciate that that you explain your credentials are, and where your perspektive come from.
So many opinions and news which don't explicit their background or ethos.
Good job
Explicit = explain
This series is brilliant. The US is undergoing a realignment of political constituencies at the moment. Who is a Republican, who is a Democrat, and who really does not have a home is changing. Republicans are becoming more populist and are eroding Democrats position with some constituencies like Hispanics and even African-Americans. One group that is looking like it will have no home when the dust settles is internationalists. America will probably be more inward-looking in the coming decades.
It would be a huge mistake to turn inward. The world is shrinking because of our technology. We cannot isolate ourselves from the world. The GOP is not "populist". It is becoming fascist with its refusal to respect the vote of the people. The GOP is becoming Russified in its embrace of insane conspiracy theories and paranoia.
Interesting. I actually think the opposite. I think that after the culture finishes shifting (millennials and Gen Z take over of the Boomer culture) that it will allow an outward-looking attitude again.
@@rathelmmc3194 This gen z and millenial generation is very divided
Thanks everyone for a non-partisan discussion on a critical point in the US especially affecting the rest of the world. I personally don't know which way things will break. It could even be that Trump or someone like him regains power and has the sense to press China by aligning deeper with NATO, which would seem unexpected right now.
Totally disagree. As a Reagan Rep I agree it is vital to take back our party, but more importantly reestablish American global leadership. It has already begun. Putin did more to undo the terrible damaged relationships with our allies than anyone! NATO and our Pacific allies are galvanized more than they have been in years. Possibly 20. Only the most extreme Fringe on the populist left and right want to stick our head in the sand. Esp since China is watching how we respond to this current crisis very carefully. And young people are very outward looking with issues as diverse as human rights, climate and educational access. (Esp for women, just look at sadly what's happening now in Afghanistan)
Mr. STUBB reminds me of a Reaganesque worldview that Europe was lacking for many years. Love love ❤️ listening to him, how Lucky Finland was to have such a leader, and still major advocate for his country and the democratic world view. And YES 🇫🇮 in NATO, such a great country, and powerful innovative military future contributor. 👏 consistently pro free common values we all share!
Thank you for the engaging and educational videos.
Trump did a lot of good for NATO. He added Montenegro and Macedonia to NATO and cut of Serbia from forming alliance with Russia. He sanctioned Nordstrom 2, Biden gave it a green light. Trump sent weapons to Ukraine, Obama refused. Prof. Stubb doesn’t seem to be objective here…
This was a brilliant series thank you
17:35 - 18:00 prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. Have faith in us 🇺🇸✊🏾🙏🏾
Thank you!
Keep the different countries going. Even outer space would be an interesting episode too, given the decay of the International space station and moon and asteroid mining
Amazing lecture! As usual!
A G A I N S T joining NATO : 1) Joining NATO means to serve as a target for Russia´s or China´s strategic nuclear missilles all the time in future, certainly not just untill Ukraine war would end. 2) USA may back off in case of nuclear war in Europe to save hundreds of their cities- than NATO would loose nuclear war in Europe. 3) USA would appreciate every new NATO land(Finland) to absorb some of Russia´s nukes, which otherwice would probably explode above USA´s cities in case of nuclear war between USA and Russia... 4) Finland managed alone in past, could manage in future. It is still far better option than to be incinereted instead of some USA´s cities one day...USA likes to be nuclear armed nation, on the other hand they can not defend themself against Russia´s nuclear forces, let alone to defend Europe against it! Finland would better to rely on Finish defensive means and not to mess with counting on USA and kind of stand up against nuclear superpowers like Russia and China to "fight" them one day... To "fight" them means - to absorb some of nukes which would otherwise explode above USA´cities very harmlessly for Finland.... 5) Joining NATO is the way how to assure the tottal destructin to Finland during a nuclear war between USA and Russia, or even between European NATO members and Russia... 6) If anybody thinks that USA is a morally "OK" NATO leader- kind of a "good guy" , than please try to google: "USA drone strikes" . You will find horrible crimes committed by USA on civilians including children in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen an other third world countries... 7) Pro NATO propaganda sounds like this: „No NATO country has ever been invaded. “ Russia has not been invaded either. It certainly does not prove, that NATO and Russia will not destroy each other one day without any invasion. 8) In case of nuclear war the destruction would be gruesome, but also very limited geographically to states involved. Joining NATO is possibly signing of a completely unnecesarry death sentence, since it is signing of being targeted by SATTAN II and more of similar machines of death instead of some USA´s mainland, which is warmly welcomed by USA.
Trump's US created a vacuum for China to fill by cancelling the Pacific trade proposals and only leaving China's long term initiative as the single one remaining.
Islands are secure if you control the seas, but that means engagement and distant bases, shaping a friendlier world as land matters. That is what kept the British involved in continental Europe to prevent a land hegemon.
When no longer required to be involved in world affairs (aka post cold-war) the US national inclination is to self-isolate. 9/11 delayed that process by a decade and change. The self-isolation is speeding up. If China waits they can try and take Taiwan almost unopposed in a few years if they don't attack Japan in the process, otherwise, the US will get involved. However, China is in the early stages of a significant decline, perhaps terminal so time isn't on their side which makes them impulsive and dangerous in the short term.
@Tracchofyre Historical Britain had a strategy, post-Brexit is just chaotic government fueled by BS and willful ignorance and incompetence.
The EU controls trade and standards, it's a collosal strategic error. But there were not thought out strategic ideas behind leaving, for corrupt national politicians and the newspaper barons it's about avoiding tax and their power, many others wanted a change and were sold flag waving make believe that's proven undeliverable.
Now after posturing about the Pacific, threats from Arctic sea, Baltic and E.Europe caused by Russia are immediate.
@Tracchofyre political sovereignty is paramount.
@@brasidas2011 Only time will tell.
@Tracchofyre Nah. UK didn't want to be hegemon. They wanted control of their own borders.
If you can't even control your own borders, that's definitely a very warped definition of political sovereignty 🤦🏻♀️
I love this man !
Enlightening. Thank you.
Excellent content Jonathan. Big fan of your work.
Awesome presentation thanks
Donald Trump's disparaging NATO and saying that the US should not defend Estonia, for example, was a severe blow to NATO's credibility. And warmly welcomed by Putin and Russia. Not a coincidence. Not that Trump understands these things, but he is capable of pleasing Putin.
totally agree. donald trump was giving putin the opening.
I think when it comes to trump we need to judge both rhetoric and actions , yes his rhetoric was absolutely bad when it comes to europe and NATO , but his administration on actions and policies was better than obama no question :
- Sanctions on nordstream 2
- sending lethal aid to ukraine "" Obama refused btw "" and believe me this aid was crucial to ukraine in the early days of the war
- Pressure on Nato members to spend more on defense
- Big support for the three seas initiative to help central and eastern europe
- Expanding Nato in the balkans "" montenegro+macedonia"" making it impossible for russia and serbia to have any meaningful millitary alliance
- Enforcing the red lines on syria
Then why did Putin not use the opportunity when Trump was president to invide Ukraine or other countries?
@@noureddine3648 Agreed. I think Trump was a dangerous wildcard and his rhetoric was awful for US partners. But he changed the dialogue around China and he set a hawkish tone around partner inputs that needed to wake European partners out of their slumber. He and Putin have done more for reminding us of the importance of fighting for democracy than any other leaders and that's mostly by showing us that it can be threatened and needs to be defended at all costs. As the previous poster said actions that occurred during Trump's presidency also did some important things. If he returns maybe he can double down on Biden quietly pushing to increase recognition for Taiwan.
Exactly! It’s not the words, but actions that count!
We need a flag bearer of Western democratic values. US has made big mistakes in Iraq, Afghanistan, Latin America, etc. But don't forget the Marshall plan, helping Japan to prosper, etc. I am from Finland, US is absolutely our best ally available
First Gulf War based, intervention in Korea, Kosovo (stopping Yugoslavia committing genocide and ethnic cleansing), intervention in Grenada, Panama, even Libya was a good and just intervention and the issue was the follow through, or lack thereof
Even if you don't give a shit about the US, these specific interventions have led to millions living in peace and democracy and saved lived.
On the other hand, there are many shit interventions-- either unjustified or justified but leading to shit outcomes (like getting rid of an unarguably shit dictator and then leaving the country in civil war/ another dictator)
What about Sweden lover
When the minority replaced the white people in America (soon, very soon), they will not give a shit about you, because they can barely take care of themselves then!!!
its also the only ally aside from the EU :-)
when the list has only one candidate, its easy to be "the best"
torille...
se on moro
You should have your own channel Prof Stubb!
Cheers, professor Alex! 🇸🇪🥰🇫🇮🇺🇦
Thank you
I'd love to see EU & US develop a transatlantic partnership similar to EU's common market concept (free movement of goods, capital, services, and people). Attempts towards something like that, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), were halted by Trump in January 2017. Now that he's thankfully gone, hopefully negotiations on something similar can be revived again at some point.
I very much doubt that. Free trade is something that is disliked by both parties in the United States now. With the large economic disruptions that are taking place right now, I can't see people very keen on the idea of a common market.Especially if migration is involved.
Free trade is what f*cked us & created the geopolitical economic giant that is China.
We should have free trade with small countries who could never challenge our power. Not with large countries who could usurp American dominance.
Texas here: Free trade (including at transatlantic reduced tariff zone or even something stronger) is wildly unpopular in the United States on both sides of the political spectrum. The right wing is worried about ceding control to other countries. The left wing is worried about losing jobs to other countries.
The economic events of the past two years ("supply chain disruptions") have further hardened these positions. With goods from the large East Asian country now often delayed, unavailable, or increased in price, there is constant talk in the United States of "reshoring" (a shorthand for reversing offshoring production). If there was say 60% opposition to free trade in the years before 2020, there is probably close to 80% opposition today.
The above analysis is separate from whether or not an Atlantic Common Market would be a good thing or a bad thing.
@@Patrick462 - Imagine a certain East Asian country, that manufactures, and supplies over 90% of the United States' pharmaceutical products, and then threatens to withhold these goods, as a form of political blackmail. Can you blame 80% of the U.S.' population for demanding the "reshoring" and domestic manufacture of these products?
Thank you sir
Lots of love to Suomi
Despite involvement in futile and costly wars, and isolationist political leanings, the 'system' just works. The USA has been, and will be in the future, a beacon of democracy.
Very well presented. I do hope the US can fix its problems and that the relationship with Europe continues.
14:42 - 15:04 but there is hope America can grow beyond instant gratification, short term thinking, etc … of February 24, 2022 through current times (as of 05/13/2022) have shown, the validity of Churchill’s statement about US holds true to this day “ You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else” along with further proving we are capable of uniting when needed 🇺🇸💙✊🏾💯🙏🏾
Yup, there was spelling mistake on that button. There was written overload instead of reload (reset) in russian and that is quite funny.
Do a next video on EU. Your third video gave an overall view, but do a video with more details. Hos is power shared among EU countries? Who is strong, who is weak, how balance between strong and weak works? Who can adhere to euro currency, who can't, what are the steps? How is geopolitic views and diplomacy represented? Etc.
The EU must establish its own unified military with soldiers from every country in the Union for its own self determination and self interests, Ukraine wants to join the EU and shouldn't have that right taken by Russia, international capitalism has been the ruling force of the world, most Americans have a lower standard of living than most people in the EU, with a military Budget over 700 billion dollars we can't afford to fight all the world's conflicts
Yes - I think the high cost of health care is one example where the US does not fare as well as Europe. However, that may be because the system is privatized. If EU had unified military, nothing could threaten them.
I agree, we have relied too much on US on defense and Russia on energy. Like Stubb said in some previous lecture. Time for EU to step up.
Ukraine on the EU never. They do not have a good profile.
Trump was right to remind the Europeans to stick to their promise to spend at least 2% of their GDP for defence wich they did not fulfill. He simply told them to give their fair share. He was in this respect noot to blame, but the Europeans.
I'd love to hear you perspective on how the future looks like for small countries between big powers, such as Mongolia, Vietnam Kazaksthan etc
Germany and many other NATO countries put less that 2% of their GDP towards their armies. They were counting on the protection from the USA, which is investing a lot more towards their army. No wonder Americans lost interest in NATO, they were being used by Europe. Europeans themselves didn’t care about their own security. They ignored Russian threat and made themselves completely dependent on Russian energy. Now they are looking to the US to fix their mistakes… Despite all that I sure hope Europe and America develop good relationships. Strength in numbers!
Also, don't forget, the US tried to get Germany to buy LNG from the US, its ally. But Merkel said, "no we'll take the Russian gas and oil." This behavior and the EU's failure to spend on its own defence told the US that it did not have an equal partner in the EU. It had a partner that wanted to spend on its own infrastructure, and give generous social subsidies like healthcare, and young retirement ages with great pensions. Benefits like these don't exist in an unsubsidized economy. Meanwhile the US pays to keep the wolf away from your doorstep. Well what happens to things when the US pulls back? EU pensions decrease, retirement age went up and you know what's next, don't you? Healthcare. That's when the pain will be felt, quite literally!
A G A I N S T joining NATO : 1) Joining NATO means to serve as a target for Russia´s or China´s strategic nuclear missilles all the time in future, certainly not just untill Ukraine war would end. 2) USA may back off in case of nuclear war in Europe to save hundreds of their cities- than NATO would loose nuclear war in Europe. 3) USA would appreciate every new NATO land(Finland) to absorb some of Russia´s nukes, which otherwice would probably explode above USA´s cities in case of nuclear war between USA and Russia... 4) Finland managed alone in past, could manage in future. It is still far better option than to be incinereted instead of some USA´s cities one day...USA likes to be nuclear armed nation, on the other hand they can not defend themself against Russia´s nuclear forces, let alone to defend Europe against it! Finland would better to rely on Finish defensive means and not to mess with counting on USA and kind of stand up against nuclear superpowers like Russia and China to "fight" them one day... To "fight" them means - to absorb some of nukes which would otherwise explode above USA´cities very harmlessly for Finland.... 5) Joining NATO is the way how to assure the tottal destructin to Finland during a nuclear war between USA and Russia, or even between European NATO members and Russia... 6) If anybody thinks that USA is a morally "OK" NATO leader- kind of a "good guy" , than please try to google: "USA drone strikes" . You will find horrible crimes committed by USA on civilians including children in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen an other third world countries... 7) Pro NATO propaganda sounds like this: „No NATO country has ever been invaded. “ Russia has not been invaded either. It certainly does not prove, that NATO and Russia will not destroy each other one day without any invasion. 8) In case of nuclear war the destruction would be gruesome, but also very limited geographically to states involved. Joining NATO is possibly signing of a completely unnecesarry death sentence, since it is signing of being targeted by SATTAN II and more of similar machines of death instead of some USA´s mainland, which is warmly welcomed by USA.
😅 trust me, they are not. They dont give a shit about US.
Nice
I like this series, it is nice information. Thank you for that! Even though I wonder how this Trump case for demanding EU NATO members to spend their agreed share for defense, gets such a bad rep for Trump. In my opinion he was completely on the point, especially with today's situation with Russia. EU members clearly should have been more careful with their foreign policy with Russia.
If you play these wargames a bit further and you end up in a situation where China and USA gets into conflict because of Taiwan or something, can we still count on just USA? In my opinion, we should be able to pull our own weight here in Europe in that kind of case.
I agree that what Trump said regarding NATO was right. The way he said it, like he said and did many things, was the wrong way to say it.
@@sap268 It's not even how he said that was wrong. His sole motivation was to weaken NATO and threaten it with reasons why America should no longer be a part of it. He could give 2 sh*ts about Europe being 'careful' re Russia.
Russia asked to join NATO at the end of cold war, the west laughed, Putin asked to join NATO again the west laughed. Russia knew then they were on their own.
Russia was never willing to abide by the same rules as every other country joining NATO. They did then and will always have delusions of their own grandeur.
@@kkpenney444 no! your missing the point Russia asked to join NATO, and NATO laughed at the idea, show me link or evidence as where Russia said they wouldn't follow the NATO rules, like a good propagandists your making your BS up.
(I wonder what the professor was referring to when he mentioned the Russian "spelling error" on the U.S./Russian relationship "reset button"...?)
Just slight correction at 13:22 they're actually the Irish Isles
I love Alexander... when he gave 1 of 3 reasons I right away knew the 2. would be Lehman Brothers and the 3. would be Trump... I really hoped he would get EPP nomination for European Commission president
How about covid 19 the way US handled it?
@@itlearner1175 Im from Slovenia... we had very good 1. lockdown in spring of 2020, but when we had 2. lockdown in winter of 2020 nobody gave a S#!T about it and a lot of people died.... so I dont have the right to comment on USA handeling of Covid
donald tusk was nice too....
he was great. I could listen to him for hours
One thing I appreciated in this presentation is the honesty about the speaker. He admits he is pro American and I Have to say
it is obvious. . I prefer debate when two visions are clearly defined. Because when we don’t accept that other people don’t share
Your ideas, your methods of using those ideas, how culture and identity define people we get nowhere. U.S. definition of freedom
is questionable at best and their value system is also something to look at. So I understand that to prefer one system over the other
is not what’s happening right now it’s only power and U.S will do anything to keep it, which she has done s9 far. Si saying that
foreign policy is not one of their priority is really a lack of honesty. Their military industry is fuelling wars. everywhere with Military base.
So please have the decency to mention it.
I am intrigued about your comment on American infrastructure. I'm unsure what you mean. In a later video, could you elaborate on this? Thank you.
how about the unequal and expensive education system? some ivory league people get a decent education even though they often dont make the most out of it.
(bush jr member of skulls and bones, and had access to the finest education - yet was dumb as a brick... donald is dumb as a brick and also a ruthless criminal - so good education doesnt even stick when it is available.... and masses of not so fortunate will never learn how science works or that a world championship would actually required more than one country to take part in it ;-)
infrastructure is not just highways and bridges.
now look at stubb - prime example of the finnish eduation system. This guy would never declare victory on an aircraft carrier 20 years before his troops pull out somewhere...
Look for Council On Foreign Relations state of US infrastructure. Not that I trust the motives of the CFR...
11:22 - 11:36 💯REAL LIFE 💯💯
Yet again, another solid analysis of a complex world by AS. What would be Alex’s perspective if it weren’t Ukraine, but Taiwan at the centre of Chinese invasion. Would the world and NATO respond in a similar sympathetic manner? Does China have a depth of resources to pursue a campaign or is it an untested power that is as vulnerable like Russia has been in this current war?
The latter. It would be handicapped by rhetoric and face a harder challenge because Taiwan's military is more efficient and modern and, of course, it's an island.
Great Presentation, but like all western intellectuals what he omits is
very important. I lived each moment of what he speaks on, I really
don't need book I was there. For the most part what he said could
as easily been learned by the evening news.
Yeah I agree the part about the curtain dividing Russia from the west but it’s not an iron curtain because Putin is not Stalin. Maybe a smoke curtain or a rag curtain but not iron.
My heavens! The Russian trolls love to hang out around Alexander Stubb's videos.
From a European point of view, considering Donald Trump might win the next presidential campaign in the U.S., is quite a scary thing.
He won't.
@@toradog5719 Hope you're right!
Excellent analysis in my opinion. Tho I see the US issues arising before 11 Sept 2001, which was triggered by the following. I see the salient issues starting long before in the form of turning a blind eye to our abuse of power in many venues and by many mechanisms over many years. With great power comes great responsibility, and the shouldering of responsibility has been insufficient.
Will you make a video in this series about the future of Ukraine after the war?
An episode on the UK, who have had a vociferous and principled response to the invasion of Ukraine, along with the Brexit phenomenon and it's not as close relationship to Europe would be interesting. They seem like they are the bulldog for the USA. The first to bark and growl, waking up the USA to respond more quickly in a given direction.
I liked your bulldog for USA analogy, I'll remember that :D
It's a weird feeling, we went through a lot of turbulence and are still feeling the effects of Brexit (and will probably continue to feel it for years to come) but it gives me hope that we can still contribute and collaborate with a liberal and free Europe.
We might have left the EU but as far as I'm concerned, we never left Europe. 🇬🇧🇪🇺
I noticed the UK seems to be leading the way with many things.
There is no way in which Britain 'barked and growled and woke up the U.S.' re this conflict. America was clear-eyed about Russia's intentions as early as last fall. The stakes are not remotely similar as the U.S. bears much of the responsibility in preventing escalation.
@@kkpenney444 I politely disagree. Other than nothing that I said "seems" the English were the fastest and loudest at the beginning. Also, note how early the Prime minister had visited Kiyv. These points are not meant as a criticism of the USA in any way.
As a European living in the US, I am very thankful to have Anthony Blinken leading the state department at these times. Biden is not the most inspiring leader, but he has assembled quite a competent cabinet.
They're very competent as they're driving our country off the cliff.
Another very interesting and thought provoking video from Professor Stubb. However, the problems faced by the US have their origins in the late 18th Century. As originally conceived, the US was more like Switzerland or the Holy Roman Empire than like a modern true federation, such as Australia or Germany. The political system was supposed to prevent partisan politics, but almost from the beginning, by Washington's second term, partisanship was in and becoming vicious. Separation of church and state was supposed to prevent European problems like the Thirty Years War, but instead of religious intolerance weakening as happened in Europe, it led to religiously intolerant sects growing undetected in the dark, only to spew forth in full nastiness recently. Party primary elections that were introduced in the last century to make parties more responsive to their membership, have, instead, come to be dominated by ideological extremists [at least on the Republican side] dominating the primaries, and forcing the entire party toward more extreme right-wing positions.
The US is, for these and other reasons, at an inflection point, as suggested by Prof. Stubb. I hope the US continues to be the secular, constitutional, democratic republic it has become.
As long as Donald Trump is gone America will be fine! He was a trouble maker and he never shut up! A president should be seen and not heard so much. We entrust our president to keep us safe and sound! I just want the rite man for the job and it’s not about party. Where Trump divided a country Biden brought a world together!
Thank you professor 🇺🇸
Meravigliosi 🥰
Biden brought the world together? How's that?
thank you alexander once more and looking forward to the next episode But let me ask a question: what did you mean by stating that the USA has weak infrasturcture?
thank you for your brillant lectures that to me could be even a little bit longer...
Texas power grid failed? Bridges falling down, new funding on the way but it is still an 'issue'.
And also car dependency. Instead of neat organized public transport system as in Europe or Japan you build 10 lanes of highway that lead to traffic jams that are solved by bulding 4 more lanes.
I have a feeling things will blow up after the mid-terms no matter who wins, and it's not going to get better until one side or the other capitulates. However, after that happens, recovery economically as well as politically will be relatively quick. Personally I find it hilarious that the US can while being almost completely internally divided, head the NATO alliance to assist Ukraine's struggle with 74% approval of that effort, while still keeping China in check when they would love nothing more than to secure that critical first island chain while going through COVID lockdowns.
1:42 - 1:54 💙🇺🇸🙏🏾 Still give it to us forthright tho 💯💙
🙏🙏🙏
Ok, you should be the next president of Finland
"America is back" Not Arnold but Alexander
We were one Pence away from a successful coup.
In 60 AD Apostle Saint Andrew traveled to the area of Kiev, preached, and said, one day a great city would be built here with many churches to the glory of God. Today there is a church to Saint Andrew in Kiev. The peoples in the area were Slavic. Kyi, Shchek and Khoryv, three brothers and the sister Lybid founded Kiev in 482 AD, Kiev was named after the older brother Kyi. Kiev the older brother was King. Herodotus wrote that Hercules had founded this land.
The Rus were Viking tribes that settled peacefully in Kiev as far back as 750 AD with the Slavs there, 400 years before Moskva existed. The name Russia, coming from the city Moskva, has no connection to the RUS. Russia coming from Moskva started with Batu Kahn much later as a vasal under Mongolian rule. All the early Czars were Mongolian and of no connection to the RUS. The Rus were with the Slavs to the south in Kiev. Moskva were Finnish Urgic Tribes; Mosk means cow and Va water, which are Finnish names. There was no RUS there. The ethnic background of Moskva is Finnish-Urgic and Mongolian. The Rus developed the religion, city Kiev, alphabet, churches, and had its saints. The founder of Kievian Rus (800) or the Rus was a Viking named Askold or Oskold (Norse) from Sweden; not Oleg as in the Russian story. Kievian Rus exists long Before Novgorod and Oleg’s arrival there. Askold is the Slavic name. Oskold, the first King of Kievian Rus was in Kiev before Oleg in Novgorod. Oskold had 200 ships and 20,000 warriors. Oskold was baptized in Constantinople (128 years before Volodymyr) and sent the first bishop back to Kiev. Oskold and Dir were the first Dynasty of Kievian Rus. Askold rules from the 40-60s and Dir to the 80s. Askold is buried in Kiev and the first Kievian Christian King & Dynasty. Oleg followed coming from Sweden through Novgorod and was a pagan. Russia as named today started in the city of Moskva over 400 years later after Kievian Rus or Rus. From Kiev, the capitol of Rus, Kievian culture was spread, much like the Greeks Hellenized the known world, or like the British anglicized the world by the English language. This process does not make Moskva to become RUS in as much as Persian are not Greek. How we are misled by a name; Russia. The capitol of the RUS has always been Kiev. There is no other RUS and no RUS in Moskva. Many say Ukraine began recently; but the culture of the RUS is Kievian RUS, both culture and ethnic background. Ukraine is a name given by Poland meaning outer lands. The land of the RUS before the Mongolian invasion was very large. The name RUS is a Norse name which means men that row; there are no men that row in Moskva. So Moskva adopted the name Russia while being a Mongolian vassal, essentially traitor to the RUS; and all the Czars were Mongolian-Finnish. The Culture of the Mongolian was centralized power, and that cultural imprint was passed on to present day Russia. Ukraine’s real name should be Kievian RUS, or Kievskarus! Russia began in Moskva by Batu Kahn and Novgorod conquered much later, still no connection to the Rus.
Putin & Lavrov should be ashamed of themselves, the USSR was an occupation; it never had the status of a sovereign state and due process of law that would be associated with a free society. Even today the mentality of the gulag exists. There is no freedom of press and speech, people are arrested for speech, there is no due process of law, and the religion is state run making it a totalitarian theocracy. As such, it did not deserve to exist in a free world; and history has shown such totalitarian organizations fail over time and author in many gulags. The true culture of Russia is Finno-Ugric and Mongolian, having nothing to do with the RUS (Kievian), expect borrowed as in the sense of Hellenized or Anglicized "forms" as a comparative reference. The centralized form of Russian politics is a very Mongolian imprint on culture. The actions of Putin seem to be another Mongolian invasion of Kiev; here I suggest as to the correct metaphor. I believe so. Putin & Lavrov insistence to have purview over eastern Europe also seems like paying tribute to the Mongolian Horde. Moskva started as an agglomeration of Finnish tribes, combining a Finnish name meaning cows water and developed by Mongolian culture. Mosk means cow and Va means water. The RUS are men that row, Vikings, Norse, established Kiev 400 years before (750 AD) Moskva even thought to exist. The name Russia for current nation is totally inappropriate. The current Russia started in Moskva; how misleading is the name Russia coming from Moskva that has no connection to the RUS. All the lands should be returned to Kiev; the West of Russia to Finland, and the East to Mongolia. Russia’s place on the globe appears as a temporary aberration in my view. To use threats of Nukes publicly strikes at the heart as adolescent behaviour; surely any nation or person that issues such threats and being an ally to such while not even having war imposed on them is not fit to rule. This would include allies of Russia. Oh yes, I remember, Russia didn't invent the bomb, they stole it in the 1940's and gave it to Kurchatov. Russia struggles with an identity crisis since its beginnings unoriginal to the ethnic groups. Its errors are numerous, 50 million killed by Stalin in WW2, allied to the Nazis to kill the Poles for their defeat in WW2, Holodomor where millions of Ukrainians were killed and grain stolen, and constant antagonist with Europe. We even have the Holy Mother announcing Russia’s errors at Fatima. Russia is a Mongolian culture and all the first Czars were Mongolian and Batu Kahn is the author.
Oskold was the grandson of Ragnar the king of Sweden, his name is old Norse and spoke old Norse, the name Rus is old Norse, he settled peacefully in Kiev and the Slavs made him king, he brought Christianity to Kiev with his son dir...his burial mound is where St Nicholas church is built, Oleg wasn’t even in Novgorod when this happened, and Oleg is not a Rus nor old Norse name. The Slavs called Oskold the name Askold. After came Dir, Oleg was a pagan who assassinated Dir, Oskold becomes the first dynasty...later when the line of kings get to Vladimir, he is captured at a trading post by the Mongols, the post is called Moskva, and the king killed. Moskva as a city was a Mongolian invention, and Novgorod becomes a part of that Russia by conquest, although having nothing to do with the Rus. Oskold line is Ragnar, ironside, Oskold from the King of Sweden Ragnar. Oleg is via Rurik coming much later. The accounts of Oskold are within the time, Al Mamun an Arab writer of the time wrote of Oskold, the Russian chronicles come hundreds of years later. In much the same way accounts of relevant history are better understood by those of the times, much like the Bible, dating to the original times makes the account authentic. The Russian chronicles are merely a tale and inaccurate.
Kiev was a city over 1000 years before Russia even existed. Kiev was Kievian Rus before Novgorod and when Oleg arrived. Putin is kidding himself if he thinks any part of Ukraine belongs to Russia. We can see that Israel belongs to the Jews, similarly all the lands around Kiev of Kievian Rus belong to Kiev as a single nation and city state. Russia's beginnings are a wanting child begun as a captive insurgency having nothing of its own; a captive state that was reeking in servitude to Mongolia and invented by Mongolia. The entire culture of Russia from Moscow is Mongolian centralized power, a pagan culture of no empathy and Christianity. The Christianity is tainted as a state religion or theocracy and politicized. History is often obscured by being written by the ones in charge. The history of Ukraine has been obscured by the Soviet Occupation and cultural appropriations. Moscow in an attempt to appropriate a history not its own, rewrote the narrative of history to cover up its compromised origins; Kiev and Ukraine is a history much older and more civilized; making contributions to civilization. Russian despotism becomes the blueprint, foundation & model for every despot nation, look at its allies; the error of its ways has spread throughout the globe; much like the message from the Holy Mother at Fatima. Those that are sympathetic to Russian atrocities can find similarities in their own histories. Ukraine has a democracy at a local level Moscow never had and fears. Russian boundless ignorance is a type often found in the poorest of nations, and usually the poorest have a history of the hardest tyrants over them that also inflict poverty, physical and spiritual, on others they attempt to subjugate, a reflection of their own lives, an abomination of desolation.
Askold was in Constantinople in 860 and Oleg arrived in Novgorod not until 862. The Arabs referred to Askold as the Slavic King or King of the Slavs which he had been for a while. Pontius says Askold brings Christianity to Kiev from Constantinople and a bishop. Ragnar the Norse King of Sweden was born in 767 AD, his son Bjorn ironside was born in 796 AD, and grandson Oskold (Askold) was born in 820 AD. Askold arrived in Kiev in 840 and had a son Dir, Both become King and the first Christian dynasty. Askold dies and gets a burial mound in a park in Kiev. Dir follows as King. Dir is assassinated by Oleg who is a pagan. Nobody knows who Rurik is or who the father is . Oleg is a generation away from Askold. Olga of Kiev builds a church on Askold’ s burial grounds. Pontius of Constantinople says Askold brings a Bishop and Christianity to Kiev. Russia much later is a Mongolian invention..........
Are you Paul Bettany?
The sub-prime mortgage crisis was not caused by free markets. In the 90s bill Clinton forced banks to loan money to people who had no opportunity to pay that money back. To stay solvent, they bundled those together and sold them around. When those liabilities dropped the bottom out of the biggest banks, the Government forced every bank, even those who hadn't bundled them and gotten themselves in trouble to take a bailout. It was government intervention that caused the downturn, and this downturn now. If the government bounded the economy and stayed out of the rest of it, the US economy especially would look like it did in 2019.
That 'subscribe' notification is annoying. Come on, 8 times in a single video? Surely having it once at the end is more effective.
What about China+Russia+Iran
Pascal Boniface of IRIS, France has a much more balanced view of the USA. Much better aligned with European interests.
Interesting topic. If you were UN President, how would peace be negotiated ? 🕊️ 🤔
Holy shit, this guy loves his conclusions.
Great historical explanation but was Trump removing America from NATO or was Trump just acknowledging that Europe had already left NATO? Many Americans who were not Trump supporters resented Europe not supporting NATO especially Germany.
I have wondered for a long time why the World has such lousy leaders? My dad told about our Presidents that we get the leaders we deserve?
Kiitos! Well explained and articulated. For those who don't know this great man, here's some basics: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Stubb
India and UK next!
My first impression is that each country governments should put their own people needs first. Affordable insurance, education and infrastructure. You can’t play both fronts internal and external. Not enough resources. The US debt is crippling its economy. The taxpayers should have a say on how their money is being spent.
The American Right-wing is made of two factions but they both see Europe as a theme park to visit. One faction is basically the same believe structure as the Taliban or Iranian government, just Christian flavored. The other faction are just a bunch of no-no-Germans with different flags and symbols if they're smart, the SAME 1940s symbols and flags if they aren't smart. If Europe as a theme park shuts down, they'll be sad briefly and then go somewhere else, or will be gleefully stomping on Europe's face because they believe "If no one stops me, what I'm doing is good." It's bad for everyone except them instantly while still being bad for them eventually. A caveat here is there's a subset of the first group that basically just worships holding on to money instead of Christianity, but there aren't many of them right now.
The American left-wing is made of two factions. One is the spiritual successor to the hippies despite having zero connection to them. Very "we should all hold hands and be happy" without saying it. The other faction is the old people that worked with Europe back in the cold war, or people who grew up believing in the connection and are only interested in personal profits.
They all vaguely support to strongly support Europe, but don't get confused. 2 of the four look at it as a source of money and entertainment, as soon as that stops their support ends. Of the last two groups one is so harmless as to be self destructive, the last group sees everything as needing to be conquered and subjugated. Understanding these four groups will help make the USA's behavior make more sense. It's how the US will wage a bloody campaign somewhere, but then come back trying to help the people they were shooting 10 minuets ago.
Minor quibbles, but alas, largely accurate
Does the groomed professor see the irony with the Allies’ response to the recent China/Solomon Island security Agreement?
Brilliant points i agree fully America and Europe very strong alliance and today is been so strong and united than ever before I believe it will continue that way for decades to come EuroAmerica stronger together
8:28 - 8:43 - 8:56 … real life 💯