My Latvian son is going to be 12 years old soon. Probably he is going to fight in the next Russian invasion of the Baltics, as he will be on military age. He has ancestors and family members that were deported to Gulag or shot by the Russians. None Latvian will give up, in the last Russian invasion Latvians lost 450.000 nationals, a third of his population and now is completely submerged by Russian inmigration that has changed the ethnic and cultural identity of the country. Russians brought corruption, violence and drunkenness. Level of living in pre-Soviet Latvia was similar to Norway and higher than Finland. Now is a low wage salaries and the youth is leaving for UK or Germany. Russian occupation means complete loss of the national culture. This cannot be understood by many westerners, whose last foreign occupation happened long long time ago.
THE only hope for the survival of the what good, freedom loving people there may be in Russia lies with THESE people ALONE. They have to decide whether they want to perish completely from the surface of the Earth, or change their country completely. Alexa Navalny had a great vision for Russia. Someone who is his moral equal, possessing his courage must pick up the banner, and good moral people need to follow and support him and organize and change their country or they are doomed.
We too, as Poland, have been through nightmarish times by the ruSSians. It is amazing that the ruSSians call all those terrible things they did to us ‘liberation’ of our countries and peoples. Unfortunately, all the time Western countries completely fail to understand the mentality of the ruSSians and how to deal with them. The mentality of the ruSSians is imperialism, lying, manipulation, doing many things for show to hide the truth and, above all, the language of aggression, which they only understand. It is impossible to talk to them on a civilised level. What we call normal communication the ruSSians call and understand as a weakness which they must exploit. I hope that there will not be any war, but if there is, we will together defeat these monsters of the ruSSians. We succeeded once, so we will succeed again. Warm greetings from Poland to our friends and dear neighbours from Latvia
I'm a Brit living in Poland with my half Polish sons . Ukrainians are defending all of us with their lives. We need to support them fully now. Did we learn nothing from the 1930s how to deal with mad dictators.
This is the discussion that is invaluable. We need to hear this - we need to unite as Europeans and stop thinking that the USA will save us should the unthinkable happen. Poland, Estonia - these countries understand fully what Putin plans next. Bless the people of Ukraine.
The problem is that we have several trojan horses in Europe: Orban's Hungary, Fitso's Slovakia, and many far-right parties sympathetic to Putin and/or who had previously been financed by Putin: in Germany (AFD), France (Marine Le Pen) and Austria (FPO).
No , simply two big wars and an elite who keeps the population as slaves , plus over 100 years of deep deep Russian infiltration and subversion...... not as simple as saying "sheep" or "cowards"........ just one look at the media landscape + school system & academia here , would explain everything to you.....
Yeah, weren't not the same, not even remotely similar. As with our neighbour Finland, we also can't be ordered to stand down by authorities if defending ourselves. Greetings from Estonia.
Same with Sweden. We are even ordered to ignore such order from goverment. We fight until we fall or win. Just like Ukraine. If not for my wheelchair I would fight there. I do what I can in other ways. It is our war. We just have the frontline in Ukraine for the moment. Never give up, never give in! 🌻🌹❤️🖤🌹🌻
Imperial thinking exists everywhere, but in Russia it has been a constant for hundreds of years, perhaps with a brief interlude in the 1990s. Basically it is a delusion, that leads you to try to control your people and neighborhood countries. The delusion comes in the form of narratives, such as Russia needs to save the world from evil etc. It's irrational, unwise, destructive, tragic
Yep....Russia has always wanted to expand and spread its brand of terror to conquered lands for 100s of years. It won't change unless it faces overwhelming force.
But now Russia is not agresor .Ukraina never been a country only trough last 33 year ,by mistake of history ,they have as a gift , ready country . Nobody was takin care about because they didn't payed for independence ..Durring last 33 years they have been stoling and rubbering own country .Not only authorities but ussyly citizens were doing it .If you buy ticket for train without printing for half prise who are you ? If you pay half prise for parking you do the same . Corruption and crimes came from the ground level .Do not forgot about truth with nazi ideology and doctrine this country .This ideology is forbidden in whole Europe because this Ukraina will never member of EU .This poor guys does dye for nothing .We can expect partition this country .Ukraina without Donbas will not exists .They had rich country .They could be neutral and develop themselves became richer and richer as the rest post communistic country were doing . They could be like Finland after 2ww and wait for a right moment in history but to be worthy country. .For ppl democracy and severity means full bowl nothing more .If you will read national poem of Ukraina poem ,, Hajdamaks by Taras Shevtzenko you will recognise whom they are . Ukraina is nearly collapsed and emptitaized but Jews are dancing in the highest amount in history .What this event may sign or predicts for Ukraina ? Masters and servants I reminde to myself title of song .
Cowardice? You are so wrong my friend. The so called leaders, connived, screwed and manipulated themselves into these positions for reasons of vanity and greed. They love the camera, the flash bulbs, and the microphones as it gives them as sense of having personal value. While at the same time the cash keeps flowing in from selling influence, bribes, kick backs etc. Its all about the cash and the fame. They will sell out their heritage, their country to stay in these lucrative jobs. Not cowardice, but greed and vanity. Either way they must be replaced with strong, moral and clear thinking people.
We have been badly let down buy our leaders. Mr Giles has been consistently right on Russia for over 20 years and knows what he's talking about. We should heed his wise wirds.
......and France, US are currently the biggest donors, Germany is currently the second so an improvement from their original stance, UK third, France is Ninth and Italy in double digits when they should be 4th and 5th!?!
that happens if you listen to nonsene authors. but if you look at facts you see germany is 2. largest supporter of ukraine, deploys 5000 men to lithuania, pumps insane amount of money into east european countries, invested 100billion into its army. but go ahead, listen to people who neglect all of this and more, than come to the conclusion germany is doing nothing.
@@stephenhill545 so, if germany does not supports eastern europe, theyre bad. if they do, theyre bad also. thank you, thats all i had to know about you.
Jonathan how on earth is it that for the majority of your steadfast fans, prior to the past two and something years you laboured under a cloak of obscurity? How on Earth did you contain all the blinding white hot furnace-fresh sparks of superlative - peerless I venture to say - interviews and analyses? It seems astonishing! Bravo, you hit the mark again with effortless precision👍
Yes agree 100%..some countries in Europe who got a spine,pride,understanding and balls MUST go together and BUILD UP a strong military,a new "powerhouse" of the world...Poland,UK,Baltics,Nordic countries,Romania,Holland, Czech Republic...would like to see France and Germany there also but unfortunate it doesnt look good with far-right and far-left growing there and they all bought by Russia or delusioned
@@hrvojesvetec3058Labour in the UK and the Social Democrats in the Nordic countries are neo liberal centrists. Actual left parties in Europe rarely if ever get more than 10% the vote. Meanwhile, the Swedish right-wing government is at the mercy of an actual fascist party Sweden Democrats which controls them. All parties are headed to the right at a quick pace. The overton window now is such that the policies of the Social Democrats in Sweden today is to the right of where the fascist party (Sweden Democrats) were only 10 years ago. There are no far left parties and no far leftists at the polls. There is a surging fascist wave, and neoliberals are running to the right to catch up with it. That’s the lay of the land.
I would love to see an analysis that looks at the foundations of Russian beliefs and the historical influence of the Mongol influence, much like the Magyar influence in Hungary. How does the historical and societal influence of these cultures still influence the modern state? How does this affect modern culture?
Putin is quite correct. NATO and the West are the greatest existential threat - to the kleptocratic despotism that rules Russsssie. I hear and read many of these expose's of Putin and his regime but have yet to see or hear of any workable solutions to the problem. For every problem there is a solution, or at least an avoidable cause. First the avoidable cause: The collapse of the Soviet Union was merely a falling of the walls which formed a protective covering for the next despotic regime. Beneath the collapsed walls remained Soviet elites, cunning to the fact that the West, naive to Russian resilience would quickly turn their attention back to their hedonistic pursuits. While in the protection and secrecy of their new 'incubator' men of extraordinary ability to use one remaining institution - corruption -schemed to use 'the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20the century' to reap unto themselves unheard of wealth from the nation's assets. The other surviving institution - the military - became vasal to the reconstituted regime. Next - one of several workable solutions: Over 700 thousand 'men' have escaped the reach of the 5'6" 'monster' in the Kremlin to recruit them for his murderous adventure into their peaceful neighbor's homeland. Having essentially castrated Russian men, they are now reduced to quivering damsels in distress, cowering from 'ten foot tall Putin in the Kremlin, cowering from conscription officers, cowering in trenches in Ukraine, cowering in neighboring countries bullied by Russia for a hundred years. 700 thousand 'men' once they collect their cajones, could quickly and easily join with Ukrainian forces or form their own army to overtake their common enemy's Second powerful army IN RUSSIA (we now know who is FIRST since the Kursk invasion!) which is the path taken by most societies in the West who vanquished and DESTROYED BEYOND RECOVERY the despot and his gang of criminals. No more whining, no more hand wringing. LET'S ROLL!!!
As I understand it Russians learned, over centuries, that if you are not aggressors you will be victims. I think the Mongols taught Russians that lesson first. Could someone with better historical knowledge than mine elaborate on this please?
Agreed. See my long comment above. Had ANY of the Western powers flashed a little steel at that time, Hitler would have immediately backed off. It is right there in "The Rise and Fall of the third Reich".
It’s not hard to work out why Europe is slow to respond. Its governments are being lobbied internally from Russian financial influencers and by the Russian actors within the sovereign governments themselves.
The best discussion yet about the "laid back" attitude of the UK and the rest of NATO - they still look to the US but what happens if Trump wins? .Keir Giles is definitely your best , or one of your best guests ever. Will definitely get hold of his books - he speaks to us , the non academics i. o.w the man in the street. Fascinating .
And very weak and incompetent POLITICIANS. And by "weak" I don't imply that we need "strong" leader like totalitarian putin or authoritarian Orban are; these are clowns. We need real strong "men" like Zelenskyy, Churchill, Aik, Thatcher. People serving democracy and values, but willing to fight for them. We lack such politicians in the west. Some exceptions can be found in some minor countries like the Baltics.
The people of Europe aren't weak, no need to worry about that. But we aren't quite as well prepared as we should be and we're also a bit short on ammo. Unfortunately we got a bit duped by Putin's apparent rationality for a while so we let our guards. We're working on those two problems though and as long as we keep it up, we should be ready long before Russia is. The big question is how many of the NATO countries will stand together when push comes to show? Don't tell anybody but there are 11 NATO members I would trust 110%: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lthuania, Latvia, Poland, the UK, the Netherlands and Canada. That is, I also fully trust Germany's willingness to do their part but they are more than a little bit behind in their re-arming efforts so there's a question how much they can do. (Not entirely their fault btw. We have some bad experiences with a strong German military force in the past so everybody have tried to hold them back in various subtle ways.) Oh, and I trust Iceland and Luxembourg too but they don't really have any significant military forces. As for the others, it depends on what kind of governments they have if/when Russia attacks a NATO country. It's not a problem right now but we do see a trend of irresponsible right-wing extremist/populist parties gaining ground and that's a little bit worrying.
@@tessjuel Unfortunately, being resident of Germany for over 40 years I have strongly disagree with your diagnosis concerning what Germany would do in case of Russian aggression on one of the NATO members. They will be shocked and surprised. . Then they will be concerned and will think long and hard about how to contribute to “de-escalation”. Until it is too late. Germany has lost it's instinct for self-preservation as a nation, actually the majority doesn't consider itself a nation at all, they prefer to be a society, a community of people speaking German and living in Germany. And nothing let me think this attitude will change in the next decade.
Have you seen how unprepared NATO is to fight? If Trump wins we must regroup and start working politically. We need to strengthen our own alliances - personal alliances by going down to Democratic organizing offices and asking: What can we do? We need teach ins. Most of the Trump vote is ignorant of the significance of their ideals and what the effect of them will be.
NATO's viability was predicated on American political stability, now both a bad joke and a fading memory. Unless it becomes something which the US is equally welcome to remain in or to leave it must be replaced by a new structure. That would require deeply ingrained patterns of thought to be replaced by new structures.
NATO can continue in Europe as ENATO, that is the best way forward with the same specifications for weapons built by each country so they are interchangeable (Except for Hungary and Turkey)!?!
Between 2014 & 2022 Ukraine did nothing to arm themselves- they were nonchalant days before the invasion even after US warnings - convince me why Americans should care if they didn’t care - Poland & baltics are different matter - they are preparing as much as they can
@@deebelisle963 You are correct about nonchalance by Ukraine. The reason for it was that the Ukrainian government and population in general were easily controlled by russian narratives which in its turn was possible because the nation spent 2 centuries under russia. But the war purges minds very quickly. Why should Americans care? The same question they asked in 1941. Then Pearl Harbor, then... The world is approaching a great transformation. Do not look up though.
@@AkenValle «…Браты мае, мужыкі родныя. З-пад шыбеніцы маскоўскай прыходзіць мне да вас пісаці, і, можа, раз астатні. Горка пакінуць зямельку родную і цябе, дарагі мой народзе. Грудзі застогнуць, забаліць сэрца, - но не жаль згінуць за тваю праўду… Няма ш, браткі, большага шчасця на гэтым свеце, як калі чалавек у галаве мае розум і науку… Но як дзень з ноччу не ходзіць разам, так не ідзе разам наука праўдзіва з няволяй маскоўскай. Дапокуль яна ў нас будзе, у нас нічога не будзе, не будзе праўды, багацтва і ніякай наукі, - адно намі, як скацінай, варочаць будуць не для дабра, но на пагібель нашу… Бо я табе з-пад шыбеніцы кажу, Народзе, што тагды толькі зажывеш шчасліва, калі над табою Маскаля ўжэ не будзе. Твой слуга Яська-гаспадар з-пад Вільні»
Mr. Giles is a favourite return guest for sure, you must have him back for that "Moscow Rules" discussion he suggested at understanding the Ruzzian mindset. Anyway, at the 34:10 min mark Mr Giles mentions how the US has "seized on the lessons being demonstrated in Ukraine". This is very true, I follow defence channels on YT, mainly retired aircrew etc. For a good example of how the USA is not sitting idly by and is learning form the battlefield here in Ukraine as Mr Giles mentions go to a channel called "The Merge", hosted my retired USAF F-15 E Strike Eagle WSO (i.e. the back seater or "wizzo" - Weapons Systems Officer) MIke "Paco" Benitez, the thumbnail for the show is called "Microwave Mayhem" and the video is - High Power Microwave Weapons 28K views 4 months ago The Merge - Just search for that video title, I can't paste the link, my comment gets zapped. This weapon can take out entire drone swarms in one go, definitely a high tech system we could do with here in Ukraine!
Interesting, but one has to question how much can be learned and if the lessons are being understood properly. The "attritable" US drones costing 100k $ a pop don't seem like a lesson well learned. And neither Russia nor Ukraine can wage a kind of war US built it's doctrine around.
@@kogorun WHen you say "The "attritable" US drones costing 100k $ a pop" are you talking about the Switchblade 300 and 600 loitering drones ? To be fair, they came out in 2015 well before the 2022 re-invasion. The US did send some 300 models here early in the invasion. But yes that is not sustainable (they're like $80,000 USD each ? AeroVironment doesn't publish prices of these drones so they have to be worked out by deduction from x amount procured with millions of dollars contracts) so that's why we made our own cheaper FPV loitering munitions. The Pentagon for sure has learned that lesson too. AeroVironment will always have a space for it's more professional drone, this is just how Pentagon procurement works. But they will not be the, be all and end all, after the lessons learned here. There will be cheaper options.I think where the game is at now is drone countermeasures, like that microwave weapon that can drop entire drone swarms all at once! That is some "Microwave Air Defence" we can do with in Ukraine. But it's so new and the underlying tech is classified, so alas, we may not get them here anytime soon.
I’ve been impressed by so many of your videos and guests but this is by far the best video I’ve listened to. I’ve said many times to people around me that the war in Ukraine is strategic like no other and the results will be long lasting and far reaching. Our survival and future r completely in play. It is about supporting our allies and partners regardless of their means. It’s about defeating Russia and its allies and proxies soundly, by crushing them, that’s how we will win our safety and security to plot our future steps and our societal problems. I would say first defeat Russia and the axis of resistance and then work on climate issues, demographic issues, etc. we r pretending that Russia can’t win with there total war policies and strategy, quite the opposite, they would steam roll over all of Europe if not for the Ukrainians. The Chinese alone have the check book and industrial means to enable the Russians forever. On top of that Russia has the land and natural resources to fuel the Chinese masses and truly change these two countries and their partners into a juggernaut that America and a cash strapped Europe can’t match.
Moscow horde´s war record :- 1856 defeated by Britain and France 1905 defeated by Japan 1917 defeated by Germany 1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states 1939 defeated by Finland 1969 defeated by China 1989 defeated by Afghanistan 1989 defeated in the Cold War. 1996 defeated by Chechnya 2022 defeated by Ukraine WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :- a) Hungary 1956 b) Czechoslovakia 1968 c) Moldova 1992 d) Georgia 2008
@@peterc4082 "Пьянство, малограмотность, тупость и убожество "русского" мужика, отставшего от Европы лет на двести , и до сих пор еще не совсем уверенно застегивающий собственные штаны, в очередной раз показывает, что с ним дружить нельзя, так как он рассматривает дружбу как слабость". (А.П. ЧЕХОВ.)
Russia fought and killed the most Germans , tanks alone for years without a 2th front in June 6 1944. As an American , it wasn’t till I was an adult it became clear this fact of the EASTERN FRONT. That is a hard fact. But Russia has been a ruthless empire for hundreds of years of yrs
@@georgenelson8917 only because of *Lend-Lease* and the Japs not opening a second front on Russia's East During WWII for every German the Russians lost 4 ( around 25 million in total ) Pretty big loss if you ask me
@@georgenelson8917 Russia lost around 25 million to Germany losing around 6 million , not really a win to brag about , plus also impossible without *Lend-Lease*
As a Pole i'm finding it very puzzling, in a good way, that a British expert is finally right about Russia. I hope that this positive surprise will last and spread.
I wish our politicians would wake up and listen to Keir Giles and so many other experts who know what they are talking about. The world is sleepwalking towards a much more dangerous situation than we have now. Some countries have woken up, some have not.
I'm completely baffled by our foreign policy for the past 50 years. My government has completely lost the plot, and are content with watching everything burn, as long as they are rich, and remain in power. It's so frustrating to watch happen.
The EU could help a lot in the Hungary situation by stopping trying to coerce Hungarians into accepting Muslim immigrants. Hungarians remember the Turks and their history.
У сына Ротенберга гражданство Финляндии и живут они там, дочь Лаврова в Нью Йорке , дочь Пёскова в Париже- Лиза живёт и учится во Франции, сын Николай был судим в Великобритании и более года провёл в английской тюрьме, супруга владеет квартирой в США площадью 126 м 2. Внук золотова в англии ,У соловья (телепропагандист) - вилла на озере Комо (недалеко от Милана), Италия, и вид на жительство там же... у Малышевой в США. Владимир Жириновский имеет гражданство Испании, Игорь Лебедев (сын Жириновского) имеет грин-карту США, гражданство Испании и ПМЖ Швейцарии , Михаил Берулава имеет ВНЖ Чехии , Ирина Роднина имеет гражданство США . Геннадий Тимченко друг Путина, (один из «королей госзаказа» и крупнейший экспортёр российской нефти) - гражданин Финляндии, жена и дочь - тоже. С 2014 года под санкциями, вынужден проживать в РФ. Этот список можно продолжать до бесконечности... Не поленитесь посмoтрите в интернете список чиновников с иностранным гражданством. Волосы дыбом встают!! все патриоты Московской орды ? Или иностранные агенты?
Very sadly, a very necessary contribution! As a German I wipe my eyes in disbelief of our chancellor‘s empty „big phrases“ („Zeitenwende“ and „ohne Sicherheit ist alles nichts“ meaning nothing is more important than security). Thanks for the book recommendation! Thanks to your guest speaker and you for your dedicated work to provide insight to citizens 🙏🏻!
My deep concerns unfortunately were confirmed. I’m grateful for everybody who takes up the fight in this informational fog war of Russia. Thanks to you and your insightful guest!
Fantastic to hear from SKG. Enjoyed his last two books and am looking forward to the new one. I wish he was on social media a lot more, like a regular monthly guest.
Beginning in the 1550s, Russia conquered, on average, territory the size of the Netherlands every year for 150 years. This included Siberia, central Asia, the Caucasus and parts of Eastern Europe. Russia engaged in settler colonialism in these lands, and also founded colonies in North America.
Good add most people forget about this Russian history. I always wondered why many things in the US were the same for Russia but just radically different for Russia but ive seen this explanation and explains why both have a similar views especially concerning language and ethnic minorities. After the cold war I think the biggest mistake was the vast armories of conventional weapons that were built up over 50 years were not dismantled by the west and the former communist block. Along with the security council I think that is going to be remembered as a mistake after the next war. The end of the coldwar was handled poorly there was no conference like what we saw after ww2 as flawed as that was.
«…Браты мае, мужыкі родныя. З-пад шыбеніцы маскоўскай прыходзіць мне да вас пісаці, і, можа, раз астатні. Горка пакінуць зямельку родную і цябе, дарагі мой народзе. Грудзі застогнуць, забаліць сэрца, - но не жаль згінуць за тваю праўду… Няма ш, браткі, большага шчасця на гэтым свеце, як калі чалавек у галаве мае розум і науку… Но як дзень з ноччу не ходзіць разам, так не ідзе разам наука праўдзіва з няволяй маскоўскай. Дапокуль яна ў нас будзе, у нас нічога не будзе, не будзе праўды, багацтва і ніякай наукі, - адно намі, як скацінай, варочаць будуць не для дабра, но на пагібель нашу… Бо я табе з-пад шыбеніцы кажу, Народзе, што тагды толькі зажывеш шчасліва, калі над табою Маскаля ўжэ не будзе. Твой слуга Яська-гаспадар з-пад Вільні»
we have been fighting the barbaric Moscow ulus for the centuries , we Litwins know the drill ... "Let us begin with this evident fact: Muscovy does not belong at all to Europe, but to Asia. It follows that judging Muscovy and the Muscovites by our European standards is a mistake to be avoided."-gonzague de reynold, 19501 In methodological terms, one should de-Europeanise any analysis of Muscovy policy.- thomas gomart, 20062 "
I completed basic training in the Swedish Marines in 1998, the year our defense budget was cut by 1/3. Everything came to a standstill and several years of graduates in officer school were tied loose. A few years later our parliament decided unanimously that Sweden wouldn't be involved in another armed conflict and the disarmament policy was solidified. We went from a mobilized Armed Forces of nearly 800.000 men to only 8000 contract soldiers (and a vastly oversized HQ staff). Since I have a Swedish-Estonian heritage I know some things about the Russian mentality and as Sweden disarmed understood that the inevitable outcome of this disarmament would be war. Timing is always difficult to pin down, but we were bound to arrive here. The complete failure to correctly percieve this threat is on a very fundamental level. All of western and central Europe has failed, there has been virtually no geopolitical security strategy and a blatant refusal to see the warning signs, that have been present for years in abundance by the way. Putin talked about his geopolitical ambitions at least 7 years before he started acting aggressively covertly and 15 years before acting overtly... yet people are surprised??? The level of stupidity and ignorance among our politicians is unforgivable. It is a failure not only in the geopolitical realm of statecraft but a complete failure of our western European states, as well as the EU. Especially when you consider how the migration issue has been handled over the past couple decades, knowing that Russia use it against us. Do I really have to state the obvious that it weakens our societies by creating a demographic that won't contribute to the defense of our nations and cultures? Not only that, but they are a potential internal threat funded by Russia, Iran and whoever else wants to harm us. WAKE UP
I have passed two universities. One at the edutcational system the second called life. How can YOU a sweidish man , blame the russians? Heck. I would like zo visit the country took much profit over NOT going to war agianst the Soviet union and russia. Heck I wish I could punnish you in the face, repeating the stupidy someone told You. Questin: YOU have estonian heritage? I doubt it. Obviously You are the same biased against russia as the f*** nationalsists , faschist everywhere a outside INSIDE and your country. What DO YOU know about making peace? what doy you know about reputable poeple fighting for peace like yoor PM Olof Palme? Do YOU know he was killed by swidish faschists for wanting PEACE. Remeber the strategic armes force reducing tlks, the Europen Seciryty Councle, he was an important part of? We, the Gemans, Europeans, apart of the Hungarians who resisted the eU commision, have experienced allowing muslim terrorists to enter our space,of cousre the regular poele were not asked about the issue at all. WE the common people pay thr bil. It has nothing to do with Russia. It is all about wekening Europ in the interest of the US capitalists, oligarches.
Turkiye certainly isn't a democracy but some of the noises coming out of there aren't totally wrong. They support Crimea being returned to Ukraine mainly because they would not benefit from Russian control of the Black Sea.
The last point that Mr Giles makes is perhaps the most pertinent: Russia does not need to make an accurate estimate of its chances of its success to unleash hell on Europe. *A wounded bear is more dangerous than a healthy one* Putkin is highly likely to choose expanding his wars of conquest no matter how futile they are, because *even if he loses, he will still be staving off justice* There is (unfortunately) a perfect storm brewing, and (as I have been saying for the last couple of years) *the only thing worse than having to fight a war, is losing one* #PrepareAccordingly
“nor do Russian strategic documents express a plan to recreate the Soviet Union; there are no mentions of imperialist ambitions or doctrinal directives for using military force to achieve dominance over neighbors” - RAND, Russia's Grand Strategy p. 29 (2021)
Why our (some) of leaders aren't listening speeches like this? Putin himself, declared that Russia is at war against Europe, in the very BEGINNING of the invasion of Ukraine! So why aren't they taking that declaration seriously??? A guy from Finland
To me it's been obvious all the time, that in the European former eastern bloc countries, regaining freedom was also a return to Europen values and foundations for democracy, that never disapeared. For example, the Estonian Republic lost it's territory, but has for all those decades of Russian/Soviet occupation, maintained an exile government! Complete with it's own gold reserve and an embassy in Kopenhagen - issuing passports! This is aparently also what sets Ukraine apart from Russia. There is a genuine European culture to build a democracy on. Something Russia has never had. Building democracy in Russia, is starting from scratch - and like in so many other countries around the globe have proven, this is not a simple task.
Great episode. A thought on the question of the actual effect of having had many Russians travelling abroad and being exposed to the Western way of life in the past few decades: I suggest that in fact those who have travelled have been very favourably impressed, and would willingly import much if not all of the Western way of life into Russia, and that is precisely in fact one of the key reasons the Putin regime has launched the entire present struggle, both on the military and cultural fronts. The Russians who have travelled are far too few to sway all of Russian society, but they were sufficiently influential and growing in influence to alarm the Putin gangster regime, which is dependent on the support of the far larger atavistic majority of Russian society. Hence the urgency of Putin’s Kulturkampf to stem the inflow of Western values. As Stephen Kotkin among others have pointed out, the threat that the West poses to Putin, in Pufin’s own perception, is not any kind of military expansionism on the part of NATO - not even Putin has ever believed that - but the mere existence of Western democracy as an alternative system to Putin-style autocracy.
I think you hit the nail on the head. I don't believe this war has much to do with Nato expansion (maybe a little) as Putin will not accept Ukraine in Nato as a bargaining tool, but as you say, it's about keeping his regime in power and the population under tight control. The war was building as Putin's popularity at home was beginning to come into question by the Russian population I believe. And just like many authoritarian regimes, a way to stem dissatisfaction in the population, distract them from problems at home and stir national pride is to start a war. Nothing new there.
Jonathan, very powerful guest, very prominent one. Certainly with the sense of time and place as Thymoty Snyder says. Tha k you for supporting our cause. P.s. He is on the level of analysis of Vitaly Portnykov for sure. He is right on almost all topics you have discussed for the half of the conversation. P.p.s.80 percent of conversation - 100 % hit. P.p.p.s.your channel is growing but I cannot understand why so slowly. It should be a number 1 topic in number of countries, but for some reason almost whole population (sorry for not using the word "nation" now it's only population) seems like doesn't care so much about the further war. ||| ||| ||| Sadly, word, "China" were called only 2 times... Because all this war is caused and empowered by CCP... And their goal of destroy the western way of living in modern world where the west gave up almost all technologies just to produce cheaper goods for their population in the west. Thank you for such breathgiving conversation. All this already have been understood by Ukraine and Baltics and Nordics, but not by the so called by Russia's propaganda TV "anglo-saksy" Jonathan, keep up, my friend. You are doing the greatest channel on eng speaking youtube in my humble opinion. ❤
When you factor in Russia's life expectancy and fertility rates, made worse by this stupid war, the alcoholism, poor health and all the rest of it, within a generation or two at most, I don't think Russia is going to be militarily relevant. I would hazard a guess the "Z Army Enthusiasm" for this current war is largely expended. Sure, it's an authoritarian state, but public opinion cannot be Ignored.
This is Russia's last major land war but if it prevails in Ukraine it will do a lot of damage in Europe by utilising what remains of Ukraine against Europe because Putin believes (.....and most of Russia!) that whatever atrocities they carry out and however far they go weak bellied Europe will let them get away with it in the end and continue dealing with them and unfortunately his assessment at present is more correct than incorrect, Russia needs to be stopped in Ukraine but that requires far more urgency and resources than currently shown, Russia is not bound to win but if we don't improve the weapons flow it's not bound to lose either and I would prefer a losing Russia fighting itself!?!
They're already banning child free lifestyle, discussing of taxing those having less than 2 children. Also, they're pushing militaristic ideology from kindergarten, have militarized youth organizations etc. Demographically and militarily, they might be much more prepared for war in a generation than all of the West combined. The whole economy and society are all getting crafted into a big war machine. They'll be fully ready in a few years while the West has done virtually nothing so far.
You're still making the mistake of underestimating them. Even if they go down to a 100 million people , they will still be a threat. Plus the one group that keeps pumping out , is of course the adherers of the reli.... of "peace"......
I'm quite sad to report that a fairly large contingent of the Generation X people here in the US have quite favorable views of Russia, not out of any exposure to or understanding of Russia or its people or culture, but rather simply out of a greater skepticism of their own government and people. It is this generation which is largely driving the isolationist movement within the US. These folks considers US foreign aid to be little more than US government and business elites sending their tax dollars over seas to benefit themselves. They have little understanding of the true nature of the threat that Russia poses, and little appetite to learn or dispel their hard clutched false presumptions. Should they get their way, the US will abandon Europe, inevitably inviting a larger conflict that will consume the lives of their Generation Z children once they learn as the Lost Generation did that isolationism in the industrialized world is impossible.
So true. But to not understand the fundamental differences between a democracy in crisis, but still a democracy, and a full-out autocracy is really a flaw in their education. That is cutting off your nose to spite your face!
@@mimisor66 precisely! FoxtrotYouniform is overstating our reality here in MY own gen X america, i'm born around '70. The majority of us do not think along those lines re Ru and know full well how primitively violent Russia has always been. And increasingly hopefully ppl will realze that RU has the ONLY powerful propaganda & integrated spy/criminal network on earth, dwarfing any of any other country, and this has been a constant over the past 80 years or so.
Giving those islands back, whilst ensuring there can be a US/UK base there for decades, whilst getting us out of being in breach of international law wasn't really a failure. Giving up colonial holdings in adherence to international rulings shows a commitment to the Rules based Order, and the US wanted the deal doing.
Well if we gave it back to the original inhabitants it might have some traction (They have majorly all got British Citizenship anyway) but we gave it to their neighbours who they don't particularly like but have had to put up with after being booted out by the UK and the neighbours will trash the islands which was a protected sea area due to overfishing and could possibly rent out other Islands to Russia or China, protecting our security is more important than being Popular, we should have allowed the original inhabitants back on and made an agreement with them!?!
In my view, Russia, who up until now has failed to beat Ukraine, and whose weapons have proved second rate, would be totally ruined by attacking the NATO members of Europe, whose trained armed forces, even without Americans, are vastly superior to Russia's. However if Trump wins and decides to abandon his ties to NATO the loser will be America, you might be the biggest boy in the playground, but if you have no friends it is a very lonely place. Trump has a record of ditching his allies, (ask the Kurds), we know what he is capable of, but would he be that stupid?
Finland and Poland might be able to "engage and hold" for 3 to 5 years .......... anything longer than that - probably not. As for the rest of the countries ........ completely shambolic ........
He is a hateful scheming fool and yes he IS that stupid! Being raised with golden spoon in his mouth, he has no understanding of foreign affairs. Everything of import is about him.
1. Countries do not have “friends”, they have interests. 2. Yes, Trump abandoned the Kurds. And despite all the fear mongering what happened to them? Absolutely nothing.
As a Canadian it’s distressing how little our government cares about our defence let alone meeting, our obligations to our allies. I’m ashamed of our governments moralizing while failing t9 full fill our obligations
Dictatorships have one strength: they are quick and decisive. But they have two weaknesses: their generals are chosen on one factor, loyalty to the leader and not competency, and having to split their forces between external warfare and internal repression. If the Caucasus (Chechnia, Ingushetia, Dagestan) start to rebel, as they have been known to do in past history, Russia will be split between two conflicts, one internal and one external. And chances are, Russia, as it is, will not survive.
The 'not in my backyard' theory: A major power will not tolerate a bordering country to get under the influence sphere of a rival major power, no matter what circumstances. It will always be seen as an existential provocation. It's as true for Cuba inviting the Sovjets or Taiwan inviting the US or Ukraine inviting NATO. The US cynically calls it the Monroe doctrine.
Thank you for the video. Very disturbing, especially the fact that nobody is listening. One person who seems to agree is Mark Rutte. I wonder how much he will be able to do in trying to get NATO countries to act and re-arm.
They don't even look "like us" They have a distinct Russian look. Take a look at Olga Kurylenko - very Russian face , and she is supposedly one of the pretty ones ..........
Russia simply doesn't have the ability to fight any major wars vs a quality opponent. So making Russia out to be some great military threat to NATO is ridiculous IMO.
If Russia is able to keep pushing a horde of men with guns Westward, that is a threat. A coalition of European countries can defeat that. A single European country, abandoned by its neighbours might not. Insensitivity to casualties in the millions is not a strong point of ours.
@@tk80mufa5well the Russians did think they’d take Ukraine easily & they’ve done how many mobilizations/conscriptions/extensions? Ukraine appears to be a very high quality opponent but needs high quality help.
Real democratic vountryes are strong together, only must stop be too kind and to late . Too much mambo jambo delay with reaction and action, must also be wise! Whats going on, where is all competanse and knowelige? Why kgb agents, corrupt oligarks are free living in west?
Wise words and clear analysis. But what to do? How do we even start to turn things around in Europe? There are few illusions left in the border states of Nato. The Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, Norway and Romania are doing what they can. Also, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands have very sound views of the predicament. But the rest?
The reality is that as populations increase, occupying a country becomes less and less feasible. Easterner Ukraine has many Russian people although Ukrainian citizens. Western Ukraine is nit a realistic prospect for occupation. None of the locals are supportive. The east is another matter. No one in the remainder of Europe would welcome the Russians. On that basis an invasion of the rest of Europe is unfeasible and to say so is alarmist and wrong.
I like this guys take on Russia and its mentality.More of a rational explanation and in detail.Very understanding in there drive and there reasoning knowing a people and there leadership there ways/culture is always a benefit.Like he said Russia is rational in it's own sense and the closer you are to russia the easier to it is to have a conversation about the problem.If more people thought like him Russia might have to be worried.You asked him some great questions too Johnathan,his books should be a mandatory read for intelligence agencies I hope you can have him back soon.👍
The more personal power an autocrat has within their system, the more prone they become to Sunk Cost Fallacy since appearances of failure become risks to their power. Thus, the more political capital an autocrat sinks into a goal, the more incentivized they become to continually escalate in pursuit of that goal. This is why the longer Pootin is allowed to continue the invasion of Ukraine, the more the conflict risks a spiraling escalation.
I disagree that Russia will defeat Europe even though US withdraws... However, Europeans are the most important American market..very robust.so the Americans shouldn't be carried away because they cannot be great without Europe .. no one country ca
Poland seems to be stepping forward and emerging as a potential leader on the continent and 🇺🇸 seems to support having Poland lead & giving them full go- ahead.
There would have been no problem with Russia had america wanted a better relationship with them as Gorbachev and Yeltsin wanted in the 80's and had they not broke the promise of "not 1 inch west" and also not overthrown the democratically elected president in 2014, just like they tried to do in syria causing the civil war there, along with all the other countries they've overthrown over the years, iran, iraq, libya, Afghanistan (failed)
As an ex nato member it is nato that has been the beligerent force in Europe..has yugoslavia proved ..Russia have only been intrested on affairs within and near their borders
As a EU citizen, I found Germany's reaction disgusting in 2014, Russia invaded Crimea and they make plans to build more pipelines. When Russians soliders shot down MH17, using Russian equipment I was sure Europe would react. But they didn't, I've been nothing but disappointed since. If I would ever get the chance, I think the cowards responsible for the constant appeasement and logical following escalation, would not like to meet me in a dark ally... Hundreds of thousands have died, millions have, and are still, suffering, because those with power in Europe are either bought for by Russia or cowards unwilling to do what is needed. NATO and democracies have been under attack by Russia for decades, they spent so much making weapons to defend themselves, the time came to use them (although they could have avoided by responding correctly sooner) and it's beyond shameful what has happened and mainly what has NOT happened since the full scale invasion. I despise every USA and European citizen that supports Putin in any way, either wanting him to win or to just surrender millions of Europeans to his genocidal regime. Humanity never learns from history, I don't think humanity deserves to survive, we let our monsters run lose and make humanity suffer, because those that are suppose to protect freedom and democracy are cowards and those attacking it are constantly emboldened. This is beyond depressing, I agree with almost everything said here, things were also obvious long before 2022, YET THOSE WHO WERE WRONG ALL THE TIME ARE STILL THE ONES IN CHARGE AND BEING ASKED FOR GUIDANCE BY THE NEW LEADERS! THIS IS INSANITY!
You mention your disappointment in Germany. Unfortunately, the far-right party, AfD are gaining ground, particularly in eastern Germany (formerly the GDR/DDR), and they support Putin.
As an American, I couldn't agree more. I am also sickened by our ultra-nationalist populist movement. I message my congresspeople every day in support of Ukriane and Europe. But also I think everyone should keep in mind. The US has more responsibilities than just Europe and Ukraine. We also have to consider Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Israel. Also, it hasn't helped that a lot of vitrol has come out of Europe about American "militarism" that has really stirred the support pot here. Especially, the idea that we are just Europe's security dog. Additionally, a lot of US mfg might has made capitalist flight to China due to Clinton, Obama, and Bushs policies. So our infrastructure and MIC (outside of the Big 5) are incapable of fighting a multifront major war anymore. And our decrepit border policies and the ongoing culture war has literally crippled our political. system. With all things in mind, it is understandable why many of my people feel we should not get involved;even if I disagree with them. But it's hard to stand against the fact, we have been at some state of war for all but 17 years of our countries existencw.
We have started dealing with alcohol fetal syndrome in New Zealand and been surprised with its insidiousness.I promulgated the idea that Russia and its inhuman approach to others could be the longterm effect of alcohol abuse throughout its society.
![ILLSLICK - KILLSHOT REMIX [FULL VERSION]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/RIK8RrqIAzE/mqdefault.jpg)
My Latvian son is going to be 12 years old soon. Probably he is going to fight in the next Russian invasion of the Baltics, as he will be on military age. He has ancestors and family members that were deported to Gulag or shot by the Russians. None Latvian will give up, in the last Russian invasion Latvians lost 450.000 nationals, a third of his population and now is completely submerged by Russian inmigration that has changed the ethnic and cultural identity of the country. Russians brought corruption, violence and drunkenness. Level of living in pre-Soviet Latvia was similar to Norway and higher than Finland. Now is a low wage salaries and the youth is leaving for UK or Germany. Russian occupation means complete loss of the national culture. This cannot be understood by many westerners, whose last foreign occupation happened long long time ago.
THE only hope for the survival of the what good, freedom loving people there may be in Russia lies with THESE people ALONE. They have to decide whether they want to perish completely from the surface of the Earth, or change their country completely. Alexa Navalny had a great vision for Russia. Someone who is his moral equal, possessing his courage must pick up the banner, and good moral people need to follow and support him and organize and change their country or they are doomed.
As a Pole, I understand this very well. You are not alone!
@@Sinistercabbage Thanks God, Poland stopped the first Russian invasion of Europe in 1920 !
We too, as Poland, have been through nightmarish times by the ruSSians. It is amazing that the ruSSians call all those terrible things they did to us ‘liberation’ of our countries and peoples. Unfortunately, all the time Western countries completely fail to understand the mentality of the ruSSians and how to deal with them.
The mentality of the ruSSians is imperialism, lying, manipulation, doing many things for show to hide the truth and, above all, the language of aggression, which they only understand. It is impossible to talk to them on a civilised level. What we call normal communication the ruSSians call and understand as a weakness which they must exploit. I hope that there will not be any war, but if there is, we will together defeat these monsters of the ruSSians. We succeeded once, so we will succeed again.
Warm greetings from Poland to our friends and dear neighbours from Latvia
I'm a Brit living in Poland with my half Polish sons . Ukrainians are defending all of us with their lives. We need to support them fully now. Did we learn nothing from the 1930s how to deal with mad dictators.
Thank you for this very relevant conversation
This is the discussion that is invaluable. We need to hear this - we need to unite as Europeans and stop thinking that the USA will save us should the unthinkable happen. Poland, Estonia - these countries understand fully what Putin plans next.
Bless the people of Ukraine.
Agreed 👍
We finns have always known. Thats why we have been preparing since ww2.
YOU'RE REALLY BRAINWASHED. UKRANIE AND THE U.S NARCOTERRORIST DEEP STARTED THIS WAR ATTACKING THE DONBASS REPUBLICS
Planning for Germany ⁉️
Or with them ⁉️
..............
The problem is that we have several trojan horses in Europe: Orban's Hungary, Fitso's Slovakia, and many far-right parties sympathetic to Putin and/or who had previously been financed by Putin: in Germany (AFD), France (Marine Le Pen) and Austria (FPO).
Great work,my man. Big love from Bangkok
Appreciated
Another excellent discussion.
Europe is a flock of sheep, unwilling to confront the wolf. There is a price.
The US is no better, just farther away, so they [falsely] feel secure.
No , simply two big wars and an elite who keeps the population as slaves , plus over 100 years of deep deep Russian infiltration and subversion...... not as simple as saying "sheep" or "cowards"........ just one look at the media landscape + school system & academia here , would explain everything to you.....
So is the USA: A sheep in a Wolf clothes. COWARD
You clearly know NOTHING about Europe BOY.
There is no WOLF, just a CRAZY BEAR with ROTTEN TEETH.
The SHEEP are in your MIND boy.
Brilliant
Yeah, weren't not the same, not even remotely similar. As with our neighbour Finland, we also can't be ordered to stand down by authorities if defending ourselves. Greetings from Estonia.
Same with Sweden. We are even ordered to ignore such order from goverment. We fight until we fall or win. Just like Ukraine. If not for my wheelchair I would fight there. I do what I can in other ways. It is our war. We just have the frontline in Ukraine for the moment.
Never give up, never give in!
🌻🌹❤️🖤🌹🌻
Two other countries in my bucket list...who knows? Maybe my partner & I will get to visit someday....stay strong....cheers.
@@stevengill1736 Sweet ivan. I will keep the kettle on. I can still dance lad, wheelchair or not..
@@bina7915 I dont think they are Russian, rather I think they are an admiring westerner who has yet to visit those two fine nations.
@@FoxtrotYouniform Oh! Well, the kettle will still be on and we can happy-dance! 🥳 Thanks! 🤗
Having czech parents, i know how russians think. It' s nerly impossible to explain it to my friends here in Austria.
Austria is very friendly to Russia. They the centuries of co-operation with Russian tsars and later the commies.
Almost 50000 Austrians died in Stalingrad alone . 260000 soldiers in total
Thats almost double of US soldier's who died in Europe during WW2
@@goenzoy712 My uncle was wounded but survived the war, though he didn't live long enough for me to meet him.
Austria seems like a lost cause when comes to Russian influence
We Russians know how Czechs think .
That old saying; A leopard doesn't change it's spots applies, russia is and always will be a threat to countries that do not agree with it...
Imperial thinking exists everywhere, but in Russia it has been a constant for hundreds of years, perhaps with a brief interlude in the 1990s.
Basically it is a delusion, that leads you to try to control your people and neighborhood countries.
The delusion comes in the form of narratives, such as Russia needs to save the world from evil etc.
It's irrational, unwise, destructive, tragic
Yep....Russia has always wanted to expand and spread its brand of terror to conquered lands for 100s of years. It won't change unless it faces overwhelming force.
But now Russia is not agresor .Ukraina never been a country only trough last 33 year ,by mistake of history ,they have as a gift , ready country . Nobody was takin care about because they didn't payed for independence ..Durring last 33 years they have been stoling and rubbering own country .Not only authorities but ussyly citizens were doing it .If you buy ticket for train without printing for half prise who are you ? If you pay half prise for parking you do the same . Corruption and crimes came from the ground level .Do not forgot about truth with nazi ideology and doctrine this country .This ideology is forbidden in whole Europe because this Ukraina will never member of EU .This poor guys does dye for nothing .We can expect partition this country .Ukraina without Donbas will not exists .They had rich country .They could be neutral and develop themselves became richer and richer as the rest post communistic country were doing . They could be like Finland after 2ww and wait for a right moment in history but to be worthy country. .For ppl democracy and severity means full bowl nothing more .If you will read national poem of Ukraina poem ,, Hajdamaks by Taras Shevtzenko you will recognise whom they are .
Ukraina is nearly collapsed and emptitaized but Jews are dancing in the highest amount in history .What this event may sign or predicts for Ukraina ? Masters and servants I reminde to myself title of song .
So is the USA.
@@PlatonsArm Ruskie bot alert
Thank goodness for people like Jonathan and his esteemed guests. Tireless and inspirational. Thank you.
I am furious at the cowardice of western leaders.
@@LR-jk2jk many are getting paid for it ....... :-(
Its the lack of more spread nuclear deterrence.
Our weak, feeble, consensus politicians are no better than their predecessors in the 1930s. They have learnt nothing from history and Putin knows it.
Cowardice? You are so wrong my friend. The so called leaders, connived, screwed and manipulated themselves into these positions for reasons of vanity and greed. They love the camera, the flash bulbs, and the microphones as it gives them as sense of having personal value. While at the same time the cash keeps flowing in from selling influence, bribes, kick backs etc. Its all about the cash and the fame. They will sell out their heritage, their country to stay in these lucrative jobs. Not cowardice, but greed and vanity. Either way they must be replaced with strong, moral and clear thinking people.
I would characterize it as blindness.
Great discussion, thank you.
We have been badly let down buy our leaders. Mr Giles has been consistently right on Russia for over 20 years and knows what he's talking about. We should heed his wise wirds.
Phobias are irrational, neurotic fears.
@@louisecorchevolle9241 Yes, if Russophobe = fearing Russian aggression
Yes. His wise words as well.
Another great interview! Thank you so much! 💙💛
Thank you! So informative but also deeply depressing when I consider the attitude and delusions of the German government.
......and France, US are currently the biggest donors, Germany is currently the second so an improvement from their original stance, UK third, France is Ninth and Italy in double digits when they should be 4th and 5th!?!
@@thinktwice-me7ie not "attitude and delusions" but Russian 💶💶💶😔
that happens if you listen to nonsene authors. but if you look at facts you see germany is 2. largest supporter of ukraine, deploys 5000 men to lithuania, pumps insane amount of money into east european countries, invested 100billion into its army. but go ahead, listen to people who neglect all of this and more, than come to the conclusion germany is doing nothing.
@@Davidt1066it pumps money into eastern Europe because it is in its own interest, that these markets develop for its exports.
@@stephenhill545 so, if germany does not supports eastern europe, theyre bad. if they do, theyre bad also. thank you, thats all i had to know about you.
Outstanding and sobering interview. Thank you Jonathan.
Jonathan how on earth is it that for the majority of your steadfast fans, prior to the past two and something years you laboured under a cloak of obscurity? How on Earth did you contain all the blinding white hot furnace-fresh sparks of superlative - peerless I venture to say - interviews and analyses? It seems astonishing!
Bravo, you hit the mark again with effortless precision👍
He got everything wrong
I guess we will have to pull our socks up then!
Maybe we in Europe should shouldn’t rely so much on the US and build our own super power.
That's why some thought Brexit was a bad idea, but I don't really know - what do you think?
Thank you capt obvious
Yes agree 100%..some countries in Europe who got a spine,pride,understanding and balls MUST go together and BUILD UP a strong military,a new "powerhouse" of the world...Poland,UK,Baltics,Nordic countries,Romania,Holland, Czech Republic...would like to see France and Germany there also but unfortunate it doesnt look good with far-right and far-left growing there and they all bought by Russia or delusioned
@@hrvojesvetec3058Labour in the UK and the Social Democrats in the Nordic countries are neo liberal centrists. Actual left parties in Europe rarely if ever get more than 10% the vote.
Meanwhile, the Swedish right-wing government is at the mercy of an actual fascist party Sweden Democrats which controls them.
All parties are headed to the right at a quick pace. The overton window now is such that the policies of the Social Democrats in Sweden today is to the right of where the fascist party (Sweden Democrats) were only 10 years ago.
There are no far left parties and no far leftists at the polls. There is a surging fascist wave, and neoliberals are running to the right to catch up with it. That’s the lay of the land.
@@hrvojesvetec3058Or are you one of those who think that being against climate collapse and war crimes makes you far left?
I would love to see an analysis that looks at the foundations of Russian beliefs and the historical influence of the Mongol influence, much like the Magyar influence in Hungary. How does the historical and societal influence of these cultures still influence the modern state? How does this affect modern culture?
russia got its brutality from the Mongolians and obviously never evolved since.🤷🏻♀️
Putin is quite correct. NATO and the West are the greatest existential threat - to the kleptocratic despotism that rules Russsssie.
I hear and read many of these expose's of Putin and his regime but have yet to see or hear of any workable solutions to the problem. For every problem there is a solution, or at least an avoidable cause.
First the avoidable cause: The collapse of the Soviet Union was merely a falling of the walls which formed a protective covering for the next despotic regime. Beneath the collapsed walls remained Soviet elites, cunning to the fact that the West, naive to Russian resilience would quickly turn their attention back to their hedonistic pursuits. While in the protection and secrecy of their new 'incubator' men of extraordinary ability to use one remaining institution - corruption -schemed to use 'the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20the century' to reap unto themselves unheard of wealth from the nation's assets. The other surviving institution - the military - became vasal to the reconstituted regime.
Next - one of several workable solutions: Over 700 thousand 'men' have escaped the reach of the 5'6" 'monster' in the Kremlin to recruit them for his murderous adventure into their peaceful neighbor's homeland. Having essentially castrated Russian men, they are now reduced to quivering damsels in distress, cowering from 'ten foot tall Putin in the Kremlin, cowering from conscription officers, cowering in trenches in Ukraine, cowering in neighboring countries bullied by Russia for a hundred years. 700 thousand 'men' once they collect their cajones, could quickly and easily join with Ukrainian forces or form their own army to overtake their common enemy's Second powerful army IN RUSSIA (we now know who is FIRST since the Kursk invasion!) which is the path taken by most societies in the West who vanquished and DESTROYED BEYOND RECOVERY the despot and his gang of criminals.
No more whining, no more hand wringing. LET'S ROLL!!!
As I understand it Russians learned, over centuries, that if you are not aggressors you will be victims. I think the Mongols taught Russians that lesson first. Could someone with better historical knowledge than mine elaborate on this please?
I recommend a book by professor Marshall T Poe "A People Born to Slavery" ISBN-13 : 978-0801437984 - not cheap, scholarly and easy to read.
Very informative
Keir Giles' statement there at the end is quite chilling and sobering...
Great discussion! Thank you!
Greetings from Romania!
The Sudetenland debacle prior to WW2 has not been learned from.
Agreed. See my long comment above. Had ANY of the Western powers flashed a little steel at that time, Hitler would have immediately backed off. It is right there in "The Rise and Fall of the third Reich".
Thanks again so much to bring such interesting analysts to the program. Greetings from Brussels.
Alahu Akbar brother. Belgium will be Muslim.
@@aoifemurphy1693I don’t communicate with Russian bots.
It’s not hard to work out why Europe is slow to respond. Its governments are being lobbied internally from Russian financial influencers and by the Russian actors within the sovereign governments themselves.
Some want to be lobbied. And City of London doesn't want to chase Russian investors away.
Exactly right.
The best discussion yet about the "laid back" attitude of the UK and the rest of NATO - they still look to the US but what happens if Trump wins? .Keir Giles is definitely your best , or one of your best guests ever. Will definitely get hold of his books - he speaks to us , the non academics i. o.w the man in the street. Fascinating .
Yes. Seems to me there should be more explicit emphasis that US/EU support for Ukraine is a national security issue, not a “foreign aid” issue.
Its not believeable that Ukraine is a national security issue for the US.
It is in frontline countries. Unfortunately, we can't give everything we've got like Denmark has done 'cause we're next
Since MR went down, these individual info providers have become extremely valuable. We appreciate the work. 👍
Heroyam Slava. ∆🇺🇦🗽
Totally agree with Keir Giles, unfortunately the good times have produced very weak people … Very alarming and frustrating. 💙💛👏👏
Agreed. The way people have buried their heads in the sand, and have been encouraged to do so by our governments is infuriating.
And very weak and incompetent POLITICIANS. And by "weak" I don't imply that we need "strong" leader like totalitarian putin or authoritarian Orban are; these are clowns. We need real strong "men" like Zelenskyy, Churchill, Aik, Thatcher. People serving democracy and values, but willing to fight for them. We lack such politicians in the west. Some exceptions can be found in some minor countries like the Baltics.
The people of Europe aren't weak, no need to worry about that.
But we aren't quite as well prepared as we should be and we're also a bit short on ammo. Unfortunately we got a bit duped by Putin's apparent rationality for a while so we let our guards. We're working on those two problems though and as long as we keep it up, we should be ready long before Russia is.
The big question is how many of the NATO countries will stand together when push comes to show? Don't tell anybody but there are 11 NATO members I would trust 110%: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lthuania, Latvia, Poland, the UK, the Netherlands and Canada. That is, I also fully trust Germany's willingness to do their part but they are more than a little bit behind in their re-arming efforts so there's a question how much they can do. (Not entirely their fault btw. We have some bad experiences with a strong German military force in the past so everybody have tried to hold them back in various subtle ways.) Oh, and I trust Iceland and Luxembourg too but they don't really have any significant military forces.
As for the others, it depends on what kind of governments they have if/when Russia attacks a NATO country. It's not a problem right now but we do see a trend of irresponsible right-wing extremist/populist parties gaining ground and that's a little bit worrying.
@@tessjuel Unfortunately, being resident of Germany for over 40 years I have strongly disagree with your diagnosis concerning what Germany would do in case of Russian aggression on one of the NATO members. They will be shocked and surprised. . Then they will be concerned and will think long and hard about how to contribute to “de-escalation”. Until it is too late.
Germany has lost it's instinct for self-preservation as a nation, actually the majority doesn't consider itself a nation at all, they prefer to be a society, a community of people speaking German and living in Germany. And nothing let me think this attitude will change in the next decade.
@@renemagritte8237very similar in Italy , often asking me when the Ukrainians are going to surrender 😬
Europe doing the ostrich head in the sand. Maybe Russia will just go away?
The Germans, they can't wait to rebuild Nordstream 2.
Too many Countries really on Oil and Gas from Russia.
@@krisradjpaul278 It's only one which relies on it to keep its top European opinion and which sold out its EU/NATO neighbours to Russia. Deutshcland.
@@peterc4082 then they'll have to build it outside the Swedish naval economic zone and without access to Swedish port facilities
@@SonsOfLorgar Money, money, money...
NATO lives or falls in Ukraine 🇺🇦. As does Putin.
Nato isn't in Ukraine is it?
No. Nato is not in ukraine. Not a single nato country is taking part of the war.
Have you seen how unprepared NATO is to fight? If Trump wins we must regroup and start working politically. We need to strengthen our own alliances - personal alliances by going down to Democratic organizing offices and asking: What can we do? We need teach ins. Most of the Trump vote is ignorant of the significance of their ideals and what the effect of them will be.
That makes no sense at all.
@@rmorris5604If Trump were to be elected, the US would forfeit any right to exist.
NATO's viability was predicated on American political stability, now both a bad joke and a fading memory. Unless it becomes something which the US is equally welcome to remain in or to leave it must be replaced by a new structure. That would require deeply ingrained patterns of thought to be replaced by new structures.
NATO can continue in Europe as ENATO, that is the best way forward with the same specifications for weapons built by each country so they are interchangeable (Except for Hungary and Turkey)!?!
@@TomTomicMicThe problem is that without the US Europe’s military is pretty feeble.
Between 2014 & 2022 Ukraine did nothing to arm themselves- they were nonchalant days before the invasion even after US warnings - convince me why Americans should care if they didn’t care - Poland & baltics are different matter - they are preparing as much as they can
@@deebelisle963 You are correct about nonchalance by Ukraine. The reason for it was that the Ukrainian government and population in general were easily controlled by russian narratives which in its turn was possible because the nation spent 2 centuries under russia. But the war purges minds very quickly. Why should Americans care? The same question they asked in 1941. Then Pearl Harbor, then... The world is approaching a great transformation. Do not look up though.
I would hope so, the U S should not be needed anyway with the whole of Europe going against Russia to save their own butts
There is a reason why in Finnish verb "Ryssiä" (Muscovy ) , roughly meaning "to totally fail something".
We say Finnish , meaning dumb.
Ahahah, so what is term when Russians defeat Nato proxy and a ex they land?
@@AkenValle nice try Boris. Enjoy your slavery in czars empire.
@@AkenValle «…Браты мае, мужыкі родныя. З-пад шыбеніцы маскоўскай прыходзіць мне да вас пісаці, і, можа, раз астатні. Горка пакінуць зямельку родную і цябе, дарагі мой народзе. Грудзі застогнуць, забаліць сэрца, - но не жаль згінуць за тваю праўду… Няма ш, браткі, большага шчасця на гэтым свеце, як калі чалавек у галаве мае розум і науку… Но як дзень з ноччу не ходзіць разам, так не ідзе разам наука праўдзіва з няволяй маскоўскай. Дапокуль яна ў нас будзе, у нас нічога не будзе, не будзе праўды, багацтва і ніякай наукі, - адно намі, як скацінай, варочаць будуць не для дабра, но на пагібель нашу… Бо я табе з-пад шыбеніцы кажу, Народзе, што тагды толькі зажывеш шчасліва, калі над табою Маскаля ўжэ не будзе.
Твой слуга
Яська-гаспадар з-пад Вільні»
@@hybridarmyoffreeworld don't speak gibberish. Use English mykola
Mr. Giles is a favourite return guest for sure, you must have him back for that "Moscow Rules" discussion he suggested at understanding the Ruzzian mindset. Anyway, at the 34:10 min mark Mr Giles mentions how the US has "seized on the lessons being demonstrated in Ukraine". This is very true, I follow defence channels on YT, mainly retired aircrew etc. For a good example of how the USA is not sitting idly by and is learning form the battlefield here in Ukraine as Mr Giles mentions go to a channel called "The Merge", hosted my retired USAF F-15 E Strike Eagle WSO (i.e. the back seater or "wizzo" - Weapons Systems Officer) MIke "Paco" Benitez, the thumbnail for the show is called "Microwave Mayhem" and the video is - High Power Microwave Weapons 28K views 4 months ago The Merge - Just search for that video title, I can't paste the link, my comment gets zapped. This weapon can take out entire drone swarms in one go, definitely a high tech system we could do with here in Ukraine!
Interesting, but one has to question how much can be learned and if the lessons are being understood properly. The "attritable" US drones costing 100k $ a pop don't seem like a lesson well learned.
And neither Russia nor Ukraine can wage a kind of war US built it's doctrine around.
@@kogorun WHen you say "The "attritable" US drones costing 100k $ a pop" are you talking about the Switchblade 300 and 600 loitering drones ? To be fair, they came out in 2015 well before the 2022 re-invasion. The US did send some 300 models here early in the invasion. But yes that is not sustainable (they're like $80,000 USD each ? AeroVironment doesn't publish prices of these drones so they have to be worked out by deduction from x amount procured with millions of dollars contracts) so that's why we made our own cheaper FPV loitering munitions. The Pentagon for sure has learned that lesson too. AeroVironment will always have a space for it's more professional drone, this is just how Pentagon procurement works. But they will not be the, be all and end all, after the lessons learned here. There will be cheaper options.I think where the game is at now is drone countermeasures, like that microwave weapon that can drop entire drone swarms all at once! That is some "Microwave Air Defence" we can do with in Ukraine. But it's so new and the underlying tech is classified, so alas, we may not get them here anytime soon.
Such excellent content.. a great interview between two highly intelligent gentlemen!!
I’ve been impressed by so many of your videos and guests but this is by far the best video I’ve listened to. I’ve said many times to people around me that the war in Ukraine is strategic like no other and the results will be long lasting and far reaching. Our survival and future r completely in play. It is about supporting our allies and partners regardless of their means. It’s about defeating Russia and its allies and proxies soundly, by crushing them, that’s how we will win our safety and security to plot our future steps and our societal problems. I would say first defeat Russia and the axis of resistance and then work on climate issues, demographic issues, etc. we r pretending that Russia can’t win with there total war policies and strategy, quite the opposite, they would steam roll over all of Europe if not for the Ukrainians. The Chinese alone have the check book and industrial means to enable the Russians forever. On top of that Russia has the land and natural resources to fuel the Chinese masses and truly change these two countries and their partners into a juggernaut that America and a cash strapped Europe can’t match.
Moscow horde´s war record :-
1856 defeated by Britain and France
1905 defeated by Japan
1917 defeated by Germany
1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states
1939 defeated by Finland
1969 defeated by China
1989 defeated by Afghanistan
1989 defeated in the Cold War.
1996 defeated by Chechnya
2022 defeated by Ukraine
WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn
Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-
a) Hungary 1956
b) Czechoslovakia 1968
c) Moldova 1992
d) Georgia 2008
1920- defeated by Poland. Not Finland etc.
@@peterc4082 "Пьянство, малограмотность, тупость и убожество "русского" мужика, отставшего от Европы лет на двести , и до сих пор еще не совсем уверенно застегивающий собственные штаны, в очередной раз показывает, что с ним дружить нельзя, так как он рассматривает дружбу как слабость". (А.П. ЧЕХОВ.)
Russia fought and killed the most Germans , tanks alone for years without a 2th front in June 6 1944. As an American , it wasn’t till I was an adult it became clear this fact of the EASTERN FRONT. That is a hard fact. But Russia has been a ruthless empire for hundreds of years of yrs
@@georgenelson8917 only because of *Lend-Lease* and the Japs not opening a second front on Russia's East
During WWII for every German the Russians lost 4 ( around 25 million in total )
Pretty big loss if you ask me
@@georgenelson8917 Russia lost around 25 million to Germany losing around 6 million , not really a win to brag about , plus also impossible without *Lend-Lease*
As a Pole i'm finding it very puzzling, in a good way, that a British expert is finally right about Russia.
I hope that this positive surprise will last and spread.
I wish our politicians would wake up and listen to Keir Giles and so many other experts who know what they are talking about. The world is sleepwalking towards a much more dangerous situation than we have now. Some countries have woken up, some have not.
I'm completely baffled by our foreign policy for the past 50 years. My government has completely lost the plot, and are content with watching everything burn, as long as they are rich, and remain in power. It's so frustrating to watch happen.
Ukraine is already doing it. Shame on those not supporting it - Hungary 🤬🤬🤬
YOU'RE TEALLY BRAINWASHED. UKRANIE IT'S DEFENDING A NAZI DICTATORSHIP
Shame on those that sit on the fence. China and India 🤬🤬
@@DarkCriimes🤣🤣🤣
Shame on the neocons......
The EU could help a lot in the Hungary situation by stopping trying to coerce Hungarians into accepting Muslim immigrants. Hungarians remember the Turks and their history.
…and Slovakia… and given the MAGA block of logistics that lasted about half a year…USA..,or Germany given their failure to provide Taurus.
Great conversation. Thank you gentlemen.
Always a pleasure to listen to Keir
У сына Ротенберга гражданство Финляндии и живут они там, дочь Лаврова в Нью Йорке , дочь Пёскова в Париже- Лиза живёт и учится во Франции, сын Николай был судим в Великобритании и более года провёл в английской тюрьме, супруга владеет квартирой в США площадью 126 м 2. Внук золотова в англии ,У соловья (телепропагандист) - вилла на озере Комо (недалеко от Милана), Италия, и вид на жительство там же... у Малышевой в США. Владимир Жириновский имеет гражданство Испании, Игорь Лебедев (сын Жириновского) имеет грин-карту США, гражданство Испании и ПМЖ Швейцарии , Михаил Берулава имеет ВНЖ Чехии , Ирина Роднина имеет гражданство США . Геннадий Тимченко друг Путина, (один из «королей госзаказа» и крупнейший экспортёр российской нефти) - гражданин Финляндии, жена и дочь - тоже. С 2014 года под санкциями, вынужден проживать в РФ. Этот список можно продолжать до бесконечности... Не поленитесь посмoтрите в интернете список чиновников с иностранным гражданством. Волосы дыбом встают!! все патриоты Московской орды ? Или иностранные агенты?
We need to make it very difficult to hide in other countrys.
Everyone of these is surrounded by a corupt network.
@@hybridarmyoffreeworld need translation Please, want to hear your story .
Very sadly, a very necessary contribution!
As a German I wipe my eyes in disbelief of our chancellor‘s empty „big phrases“ („Zeitenwende“ and „ohne Sicherheit ist alles nichts“ meaning nothing is more important than security).
Thanks for the book recommendation!
Thanks to your guest speaker and you for your dedicated work to provide insight to citizens 🙏🏻!
Keir Giles is the real deal. Thank you!
My deep concerns unfortunately were confirmed. I’m grateful for everybody who takes up the fight in this informational fog war of Russia.
Thanks to you and your insightful guest!
Russia doesn't need disinformation, it can simply speak truth.
Too bad that even now Europe collectively refuses to face the horrific future that Russia has in store for those on the continent.
I mean that's not how it is. Germany yes. But can't generalise.
Fantastic to hear from SKG. Enjoyed his last two books and am looking forward to the new one. I wish he was on social media a lot more, like a regular monthly guest.
Beginning in the 1550s, Russia conquered, on average, territory the size of the Netherlands every year for 150 years. This included Siberia, central Asia, the Caucasus and parts of Eastern Europe. Russia engaged in settler colonialism in these lands, and also founded colonies in North America.
Good add most people forget about this Russian history. I always wondered why many things in the US were the same for Russia but just radically different for Russia but ive seen this explanation and explains why both have a similar views especially concerning language and ethnic minorities. After the cold war I think the biggest mistake was the vast armories of conventional weapons that were built up over 50 years were not dismantled by the west and the former communist block. Along with the security council I think that is going to be remembered as a mistake after the next war. The end of the coldwar was handled poorly there was no conference like what we saw after ww2 as flawed as that was.
«…Браты мае, мужыкі родныя. З-пад шыбеніцы маскоўскай прыходзіць мне да вас пісаці, і, можа, раз астатні. Горка пакінуць зямельку родную і цябе, дарагі мой народзе. Грудзі застогнуць, забаліць сэрца, - но не жаль згінуць за тваю праўду… Няма ш, браткі, большага шчасця на гэтым свеце, як калі чалавек у галаве мае розум і науку… Но як дзень з ноччу не ходзіць разам, так не ідзе разам наука праўдзіва з няволяй маскоўскай. Дапокуль яна ў нас будзе, у нас нічога не будзе, не будзе праўды, багацтва і ніякай наукі, - адно намі, як скацінай, варочаць будуць не для дабра, но на пагібель нашу… Бо я табе з-пад шыбеніцы кажу, Народзе, што тагды толькі зажывеш шчасліва, калі над табою Маскаля ўжэ не будзе.
Твой слуга
Яська-гаспадар з-пад Вільні»
we have been fighting the barbaric Moscow ulus for the centuries , we Litwins know the drill ... "Let us begin with this evident fact: Muscovy does not belong at all to Europe, but to Asia. It follows that judging Muscovy and the Muscovites by our European standards is a mistake to be avoided."-gonzague de reynold, 19501 In methodological terms, one should de-Europeanise any analysis of Muscovy policy.- thomas gomart, 20062 "
Your dreamed-up russophobia and primitive Russia-hate is your problem. Don't bother the rest of the world with it.
I completed basic training in the Swedish Marines in 1998, the year our defense budget was cut by 1/3. Everything came to a standstill and several years of graduates in officer school were tied loose. A few years later our parliament decided unanimously that Sweden wouldn't be involved in another armed conflict and the disarmament policy was solidified. We went from a mobilized Armed Forces of nearly 800.000 men to only 8000 contract soldiers (and a vastly oversized HQ staff).
Since I have a Swedish-Estonian heritage I know some things about the Russian mentality and as Sweden disarmed understood that the inevitable outcome of this disarmament would be war. Timing is always difficult to pin down, but we were bound to arrive here.
The complete failure to correctly percieve this threat is on a very fundamental level. All of western and central Europe has failed, there has been virtually no geopolitical security strategy and a blatant refusal to see the warning signs, that have been present for years in abundance by the way. Putin talked about his geopolitical ambitions at least 7 years before he started acting aggressively covertly and 15 years before acting overtly... yet people are surprised??? The level of stupidity and ignorance among our politicians is unforgivable.
It is a failure not only in the geopolitical realm of statecraft but a complete failure of our western European states, as well as the EU. Especially when you consider how the migration issue has been handled over the past couple decades, knowing that Russia use it against us. Do I really have to state the obvious that it weakens our societies by creating a demographic that won't contribute to the defense of our nations and cultures? Not only that, but they are a potential internal threat funded by Russia, Iran and whoever else wants to harm us.
WAKE UP
I have passed two universities. One at the edutcational system the second called life.
How can YOU a sweidish man , blame the russians?
Heck. I would like zo visit the country took much profit over NOT going to war agianst the Soviet union and russia.
Heck I wish I could punnish you in the face, repeating the stupidy someone told You.
Questin: YOU have estonian heritage? I doubt it.
Obviously You are the same biased against russia as the f*** nationalsists , faschist everywhere a
outside INSIDE and your country.
What DO YOU know about making peace?
what doy you know about reputable poeple fighting for peace like yoor PM Olof Palme?
Do YOU know he was killed by swidish faschists for wanting PEACE.
Remeber the strategic armes force reducing tlks, the Europen Seciryty Councle, he was an important part of?
We, the Gemans, Europeans, apart of the Hungarians who resisted the eU commision, have experienced allowing muslim terrorists to enter our space,of cousre the regular poele were not asked about the issue at all. WE the common people pay thr bil.
It has nothing to do with Russia. It is all about wekening Europ in the interest of the US capitalists, oligarches.
I don't think Turkey is a good example of democracy. I could be wrong
Turkiye certainly isn't a democracy but some of the noises coming out of there aren't totally wrong.
They support Crimea being returned to Ukraine mainly because they would not benefit from Russian control of the Black Sea.
You not wrong re Turkey. But I am Greek but that doesn't detract from the facts sadly.
The last point that Mr Giles makes is perhaps the most pertinent: Russia does not need to make an accurate estimate of its chances of its success to unleash hell on Europe. *A wounded bear is more dangerous than a healthy one* Putkin is highly likely to choose expanding his wars of conquest no matter how futile they are, because *even if he loses, he will still be staving off justice* There is (unfortunately) a perfect storm brewing, and (as I have been saying for the last couple of years) *the only thing worse than having to fight a war, is losing one* #PrepareAccordingly
“nor do Russian strategic documents express a plan to recreate the Soviet Union; there are no mentions of imperialist ambitions or doctrinal directives for using military force to achieve dominance over neighbors” - RAND, Russia's Grand Strategy p. 29 (2021)
Why our (some) of leaders aren't listening speeches like this?
Putin himself, declared that Russia is at war against Europe, in the very BEGINNING of the invasion of Ukraine!
So why aren't they taking that declaration seriously???
A guy from Finland
@jartotornroos Putin held two speeches, on 21 and 24 february 2022. He did not declare that Russia is at war with Europe.
To me it's been obvious all the time, that in the European former eastern bloc countries, regaining freedom was also a return to Europen values and foundations for democracy, that never disapeared. For example, the Estonian Republic lost it's territory, but has for all those decades of Russian/Soviet occupation, maintained an exile government! Complete with it's own gold reserve and an embassy in Kopenhagen - issuing passports!
This is aparently also what sets Ukraine apart from Russia. There is a genuine European culture to build a democracy on. Something Russia has never had. Building democracy in Russia, is starting from scratch - and like in so many other countries around the globe have proven, this is not a simple task.
Thanks, very important topic! Many thanks
The cultural mental mind set of Moskva is stuck in the 1650.
A rarely seen, very high level of understanding of ruzzia and the current political situation. Thank you!
Great episode. A thought on the question of the actual effect of having had many Russians travelling abroad and being exposed to the Western way of life in the past few decades: I suggest that in fact those who have travelled have been very favourably impressed, and would willingly import much if not all of the Western way of life into Russia, and that is precisely in fact one of the key reasons the Putin regime has launched the entire present struggle, both on the military and cultural fronts. The Russians who have travelled are far too few to sway all of Russian society, but they were sufficiently influential and growing in influence to alarm the Putin gangster regime, which is dependent on the support of the far larger atavistic majority of Russian society. Hence the urgency of Putin’s Kulturkampf to stem the inflow of Western values.
As Stephen Kotkin among others have pointed out, the threat that the West poses to Putin, in Pufin’s own perception, is not any kind of military expansionism on the part of NATO - not even Putin has ever believed that - but the mere existence of Western democracy as an alternative system to Putin-style autocracy.
I think you hit the nail on the head. I don't believe this war has much to do with Nato expansion (maybe a little) as Putin will not accept Ukraine in Nato as a bargaining tool, but as you say, it's about keeping his regime in power and the population under tight control. The war was building as Putin's popularity at home was beginning to come into question by the Russian population I believe. And just like many authoritarian regimes, a way to stem dissatisfaction in the population, distract them from problems at home and stir national pride is to start a war. Nothing new there.
Jonathan, very powerful guest, very prominent one. Certainly with the sense of time and place as Thymoty Snyder says. Tha k you for supporting our cause.
P.s. He is on the level of analysis of Vitaly Portnykov for sure.
He is right on almost all topics you have discussed for the half of the conversation.
P.p.s.80 percent of conversation - 100 % hit.
P.p.p.s.your channel is growing but I cannot understand why so slowly. It should be a number 1 topic in number of countries, but for some reason almost whole population (sorry for not using the word "nation" now it's only population) seems like doesn't care so much about the further war.
|||
|||
|||
Sadly, word, "China" were called only 2 times... Because all this war is caused and empowered by CCP... And their goal of destroy the western way of living in modern world where the west gave up almost all technologies just to produce cheaper goods for their population in the west.
Thank you for such breathgiving conversation. All this already have been understood by Ukraine and Baltics and Nordics, but not by the so called by Russia's propaganda TV "anglo-saksy"
Jonathan, keep up, my friend. You are doing the greatest channel on eng speaking youtube in my humble opinion.
❤
When you factor in Russia's life expectancy and fertility rates, made worse by this stupid war, the alcoholism, poor health and all the rest of it, within a generation or two at most, I don't think Russia is going to be militarily relevant.
I would hazard a guess the "Z Army Enthusiasm" for this current war is largely expended. Sure, it's an authoritarian state, but public opinion cannot be Ignored.
This is Russia's last major land war but if it prevails in Ukraine it will do a lot of damage in Europe by utilising what remains of Ukraine against Europe because Putin believes (.....and most of Russia!) that whatever atrocities they carry out and however far they go weak bellied Europe will let them get away with it in the end and continue dealing with them and unfortunately his assessment at present is more correct than incorrect, Russia needs to be stopped in Ukraine but that requires far more urgency and resources than currently shown, Russia is not bound to win but if we don't improve the weapons flow it's not bound to lose either and I would prefer a losing Russia fighting itself!?!
They're already banning child free lifestyle, discussing of taxing those having less than 2 children. Also, they're pushing militaristic ideology from kindergarten, have militarized youth organizations etc.
Demographically and militarily, they might be much more prepared for war in a generation than all of the West combined. The whole economy and society are all getting crafted into a big war machine. They'll be fully ready in a few years while the West has done virtually nothing so far.
You're still making the mistake of underestimating them.
Even if they go down to a 100 million people , they will still be a threat.
Plus the one group that keeps pumping out , is of course the adherers of the reli.... of "peace"......
@@tk80mufa5 They aren't a threat right now. "Meat wave" attacks with no artillery prep? No fire plan? These guys suck.
@@ashcarrier6606 where is my comment ? 😳
I'm quite sad to report that a fairly large contingent of the Generation X people here in the US have quite favorable views of Russia, not out of any exposure to or understanding of Russia or its people or culture, but rather simply out of a greater skepticism of their own government and people. It is this generation which is largely driving the isolationist movement within the US. These folks considers US foreign aid to be little more than US government and business elites sending their tax dollars over seas to benefit themselves. They have little understanding of the true nature of the threat that Russia poses, and little appetite to learn or dispel their hard clutched false presumptions. Should they get their way, the US will abandon Europe, inevitably inviting a larger conflict that will consume the lives of their Generation Z children once they learn as the Lost Generation did that isolationism in the industrialized world is impossible.
💯
So true. But to not understand the fundamental differences between a democracy in crisis, but still a democracy, and a full-out autocracy is really a flaw in their education. That is cutting off your nose to spite your face!
@@mimisor66 precisely! FoxtrotYouniform is overstating our reality here in MY own gen X america, i'm born around '70. The majority of us do not think along those lines re Ru and know full well how primitively violent Russia has always been. And increasingly hopefully ppl will realze that RU has the ONLY powerful propaganda & integrated spy/criminal network on earth, dwarfing any of any other country, and this has been a constant over the past 80 years or so.
Giving those islands back, whilst ensuring there can be a US/UK base there for decades, whilst getting us out of being in breach of international law wasn't really a failure. Giving up colonial holdings in adherence to international rulings shows a commitment to the Rules based Order, and the US wanted the deal doing.
Well if we gave it back to the original inhabitants it might have some traction (They have majorly all got British Citizenship anyway) but we gave it to their neighbours who they don't particularly like but have had to put up with after being booted out by the UK and the neighbours will trash the islands which was a protected sea area due to overfishing and could possibly rent out other Islands to Russia or China, protecting our security is more important than being Popular, we should have allowed the original inhabitants back on and made an agreement with them!?!
@@TomTomicMic The whole thing is a mess going back 50 years, we behaved badly back then and this is an adequate way outt
In my view, Russia, who up until now has failed to beat Ukraine, and whose weapons have proved second rate, would be totally ruined by attacking the NATO members of Europe, whose trained armed forces, even without Americans, are vastly superior to Russia's. However if Trump wins and decides to abandon his ties to NATO the loser will be America, you might be the biggest boy in the playground, but if you have no friends it is a very lonely place. Trump has a record of ditching his allies, (ask the Kurds), we know what he is capable of, but would he be that stupid?
Finland and Poland might be able to "engage and hold" for 3 to 5 years .......... anything longer than that - probably not.
As for the rest of the countries ........ completely shambolic ........
He is a hateful scheming fool and yes he IS that stupid! Being raised with golden spoon in his mouth, he has no understanding of foreign affairs. Everything of import is about him.
I would never underestimate donalds stupidity.
1. Countries do not have “friends”, they have interests.
2. Yes, Trump abandoned the Kurds. And despite all the fear mongering what happened to them? Absolutely nothing.
@@Kodakcompactdisc It was Biden who approved Nordstream 2. Donald was against it.
Good guest
Fantastic. A++
I'm worried for the Baltics and Moldova.
As a Canadian it’s distressing how little our government cares about our defence let alone meeting, our obligations to our allies. I’m ashamed of our governments moralizing while failing t9 full fill our obligations
@davidjohnston Come come, Chomiak Freeland has done her fair share of meddling in Ukraine. That helped a lot, didn't it?
Dictatorships have one strength: they are quick and decisive. But they have two weaknesses: their generals are chosen on one factor, loyalty to the leader and not competency, and having to split their forces between external warfare and internal repression. If the Caucasus (Chechnia, Ingushetia, Dagestan) start to rebel, as they have been known to do in past history, Russia will be split between two conflicts, one internal and one external. And chances are, Russia, as it is, will not survive.
The 'not in my backyard' theory: A major power will not tolerate a bordering country to get under the influence sphere of a rival major power, no matter what circumstances. It will always be seen as an existential provocation. It's as true for Cuba inviting the Sovjets or Taiwan inviting the US or Ukraine inviting NATO. The US cynically calls it the Monroe doctrine.
Thank you for the video. Very disturbing, especially the fact that nobody is listening. One person who seems to agree is Mark Rutte. I wonder how much he will be able to do in trying to get NATO countries to act and re-arm.
@fauvetnoir Rutte speaks with his masters voice. He spreads disinformation and propaganda.
I think Russia never been European country even close to it, they never been similar to us and never will be
Putin once said we may look like but we are not like you.
They don't even look "like us"
They have a distinct Russian look.
Take a look at Olga Kurylenko - very Russian face , and she is supposedly one of the pretty ones ..........
Once in his 72 years, the malignant muSScovite midget told the truth.
@@tk80mufa5 I was quoting Putin. I’ve been to Russian a few times and accept your point. Where I live we look like Germans.
No, we are civilized.
Thank you for another informative and poised interview 😊
Russia simply doesn't have the ability to fight any major wars vs a quality opponent. So making Russia out to be some great military threat to NATO is ridiculous IMO.
"IMO" - exactly
Keep underestimating them , has worked out so well for us before......
If Russia is able to keep pushing a horde of men with guns Westward, that is a threat. A coalition of European countries can defeat that. A single European country, abandoned by its neighbours might not. Insensitivity to casualties in the millions is not a strong point of ours.
@@tk80mufa5well the Russians did think they’d take Ukraine easily & they’ve done how many mobilizations/conscriptions/extensions? Ukraine appears to be a very high quality opponent but needs high quality help.
The days of British superiority are long gone. There is nothing left about Britain except the Premier league.
The irony. The Premier League is exclusively English...
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!!!!!
Heroyam Slava!
🌻🌹❤️🖤🌹🌻
Thnx!😊
Putin's oligarch's are watching for an opportunity, watching Putin, watching each other.
Thanks. Very interesting. Very good
Trump will side with Russia and Korea which is nuts
He considers the leaders of those two countries friends, he has no friends in democratic leaders, says it all about him.
Thank you
Real democratic vountryes are strong together, only must stop be too kind and to late . Too much mambo jambo delay with reaction and action, must also be wise! Whats going on, where is all competanse and knowelige? Why kgb agents, corrupt oligarks are free living in west?
Simplest answer as always : if something doesn't make sense - *corruption* is behind it........
Wise words and clear analysis. But what to do? How do we even start to turn things around in Europe? There are few illusions left in the border states of Nato. The Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, Norway and Romania are doing what they can. Also, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands have very sound views of the predicament. But the rest?
Why do you think European countries are increasing they military capacities ? 😉😉
The reality is that as populations increase, occupying a country becomes less and less feasible. Easterner Ukraine has many Russian people although Ukrainian citizens.
Western Ukraine is nit a realistic prospect for occupation. None of the locals are supportive. The east is another matter. No one in the remainder of Europe would welcome the Russians.
On that basis an invasion of the rest of Europe is unfeasible and to say so is alarmist and wrong.
@MarkBird Finally someone in the comments who makes sense. You, that is.
👌
I like this guys take on Russia and its mentality.More of a rational explanation and in detail.Very understanding in there drive and there reasoning knowing a people and there leadership there ways/culture is always a benefit.Like he said Russia is rational in it's own sense and the closer you are to russia the easier to it is to have a conversation about the problem.If more people thought like him Russia might have to be worried.You asked him some great questions too Johnathan,his books should be a mandatory read for intelligence agencies I hope you can have him back soon.👍
German companies are still supplying russia - through Georgia!!
The more personal power an autocrat has within their system, the more prone they become to Sunk Cost Fallacy since appearances of failure become risks to their power. Thus, the more political capital an autocrat sinks into a goal, the more incentivized they become to continually escalate in pursuit of that goal. This is why the longer Pootin is allowed to continue the invasion of Ukraine, the more the conflict risks a spiraling escalation.
I disagree that Russia will defeat Europe even though US withdraws... However, Europeans are the most important American market..very robust.so the Americans shouldn't be carried away because they cannot be great without Europe .. no one country ca
Poland seems to be stepping forward and emerging as a potential leader on the continent and 🇺🇸 seems to support having Poland lead & giving them full go- ahead.
Neither can China.
Tks very interesting discussion
It is easy to understand russia if you have lived and worked in China. russia is Asiatic.
There would have been no problem with Russia had america wanted a better relationship with them as Gorbachev and Yeltsin wanted in the 80's and had they not broke the promise of "not 1 inch west" and also not overthrown the democratically elected president in 2014, just like they tried to do in syria causing the civil war there, along with all the other countries they've overthrown over the years, iran, iraq, libya, Afghanistan (failed)
@malcolmrowe True. Great comment!
As an ex nato member it is nato that has been the beligerent force in Europe..has yugoslavia proved ..Russia have only been intrested on affairs within and near their borders
The talk of nato as rabid dog is just propaganda..they have showed no designs on other countries..unlike nato
@yogi1kenobi Right. NATO is a war criminal orginization.
As a EU citizen, I found Germany's reaction disgusting in 2014, Russia invaded Crimea and they make plans to build more pipelines.
When Russians soliders shot down MH17, using Russian equipment I was sure Europe would react.
But they didn't, I've been nothing but disappointed since.
If I would ever get the chance, I think the cowards responsible for the constant appeasement and logical following escalation, would not like to meet me in a dark ally...
Hundreds of thousands have died, millions have, and are still, suffering, because those with power in Europe are either bought for by Russia or cowards unwilling to do what is needed.
NATO and democracies have been under attack by Russia for decades, they spent so much making weapons to defend themselves, the time came to use them (although they could have avoided by responding correctly sooner) and it's beyond shameful what has happened and mainly what has NOT happened since the full scale invasion.
I despise every USA and European citizen that supports Putin in any way, either wanting him to win or to just surrender millions of Europeans to his genocidal regime.
Humanity never learns from history, I don't think humanity deserves to survive, we let our monsters run lose and make humanity suffer, because those that are suppose to protect freedom and democracy are cowards and those attacking it are constantly emboldened.
This is beyond depressing, I agree with almost everything said here, things were also obvious long before 2022, YET THOSE WHO WERE WRONG ALL THE TIME ARE STILL THE ONES IN CHARGE AND BEING ASKED FOR GUIDANCE BY THE NEW LEADERS!
THIS IS INSANITY!
You mention your disappointment in Germany. Unfortunately, the far-right party, AfD are gaining ground, particularly in eastern Germany (formerly the GDR/DDR), and they support Putin.
@joesoy9185 god help us all if trump wins in November
You are totally sick in the head
As an American, I couldn't agree more. I am also sickened by our ultra-nationalist populist movement. I message my congresspeople every day in support of Ukriane and Europe.
But also I think everyone should keep in mind. The US has more responsibilities than just Europe and Ukraine. We also have to consider Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Israel.
Also, it hasn't helped that a lot of vitrol has come out of Europe about American "militarism" that has really stirred the support pot here. Especially, the idea that we are just Europe's security dog.
Additionally, a lot of US mfg might has made capitalist flight to China due to Clinton, Obama, and Bushs policies. So our infrastructure and MIC (outside of the Big 5) are incapable of fighting a multifront major war anymore. And our decrepit border policies and the ongoing culture war has literally crippled our political. system.
With all things in mind, it is understandable why many of my people feel we should not get involved;even if I disagree with them. But it's hard to stand against the fact, we have been at some state of war for all but 17 years of our countries existencw.
Get mental help. Your lies have no effect on us.
We have started dealing with alcohol fetal syndrome in New Zealand and been surprised with its insidiousness.I promulgated the idea that Russia and its inhuman approach to others could be the longterm effect of alcohol abuse throughout its society.
misinformation channel. WASTE OF TIME, Thumb down
@vihayster I agree. This K. Giles spreads misinformation.
You want to help people understand the situation? Then stop calling Russia by that name.... Call it Imperial Moskva.
@Michael-vp9gs You want to understand the situation? Then talk of the temporary state of Ukraine.