Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS (20240518a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 มิ.ย. 2024
- Here is today's UWU NEWS giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
Del's open-source Russian loss stats:
onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?r...
Bill's stats dashboard: www.ukrainewarstatistics.com/
Merchandise for the A Tippling Philosopher blog network and TH-cam channel. www.redbubble.com/people/john...
Buy me a coffee: www.buymeacoffee.com/GkxsyfQ
Paypal Donate: www.paypal.com/paypalme/johnn...
UA Supporter merch: uasupporter.com/atp
Check out this website of pro-Ukrainian inks:
www.heroyam.org/slava_ukraini
Discord: / discord
Videos/sources:
Hits/losses
x.com/nexta_tv/status/1791456...
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deaidua/status/17...
albafella1/status...
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TWMCLtd/status/17...
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AndrewPerpetua/st...
Strikes
x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/...
x.com/TWMCLtd/status/17914473...
x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1...
x.com/nexta_tv/status/1791466...
x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/...
blyskavka_ua/stat...
NOELreports/statu...
blyskavka_ua/stat...
JayinKyiv/status/...
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NOELreports/statu...
TWMCLtd/status/17...
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TWMCLtd/status/17...
TWMCLtd/status/17...
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PStyle0ne1/status...
KyivIndependent/s...
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0:00 Start
0:10 Hits/losses
24:35 Strikes
40:10 Other
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DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSS DATA
1) These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
2) These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
3) All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
4) Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
5) Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
6) Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
7) Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
8) All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
9) Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Thanks Jonathan, ENJOY your weekend folks
Happy weekend Bud 🍻 but I'll have ☕
Just! Putting a SHOUT OUT! FROM SANTA ROSA CALIFORNIA. 🇺🇸 😀 "HAVE FUN"
Mooooooorning (afternoon) team! 🟨🟦🧡🟦🟨
Good morning Minneapolis 😊
You are so good at your job, our Jonathan! It is a privilege to know you.
Hi Nancy and happy weekend 🌷
@@surpriseitsus9622 you too, we have a long weekend in Canada, Victoria Day. In Quebec it is National Patriots day.
"they lost 600 planes"
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
holy crap this has got me laughing out loud!! what else can one do at this point but laugh at goofball Russia?
Morning everyone. Thanks for the update, JP.
Good morning 🌅
"Should not" is not "Must not" in diplomatic terms. The US is being very careful with their words but aren't saying "must not"
I get the exact feeling. My own way of handling something contentious is: “if you think doing any specific thing is right, do it.” The only caveat is that, you must be able to defend your action with strong reasons and be prepared to live with the consequences.
"Plausible deniability"
Either, you blow the shit, or your NOT.
There's no room for ambiguity!!!!
>>> No room for ambiguity
@@user-mz3in7vo5b unless you are a nuclear superpower and the world’s largest military whose every word is analyzed and has international repercussions. You’re trying to prevent both a worldwide outbreak of war and a nuclear exchange (aka the end of the world).
In this case the US position on Ukraine is unambiguous,but its plan to deal with the situation is more effective when unknown.
@@loudtim265, Russia is obviously not capable of sustaining a world war. It would be over in a week, and it wouldn’t end well for Putin.
Happy and sunny Saturday afternoon everyone, thanks Jonathan again.
Hi Tomi ❤ 🤗
morning/afternoon JP and the team this sunny day
Good morning 🌅
It would be a huge consolation to know Starlink went down due to solar activity. Alternative is Russia has new tech, or someone pulled off sabotage.
Afternoon all, thanks Jp.
Thanks JP, have as many lie-ins as you want, we'll be right. Legend 😎
Hi Team 👋😊🌻
Hi L ❤ 💐
Hello all good people! was in Ren rabbit hole, and still stoked that Jake managed to raise over Million dollars!
Has he reached 1 million? It's been a while since I checked, but his fan base is awesome. Imagine all the good he's going to do with that amazing amount of money!
@@Lyle-In-NO 1,01 last I checked☺
what a guy he is going to be supplying nafo with at least 25 vehicles
@@harold22774 Mercado said that this is like 50 trucks
Hello 👋 Mika. I donated, but not as much as I would like to. I have guest dogs and it's a lot of fun. ❤ ☀
Andrew's table "tracked garden shed" is so cringe😆
NATO code name: TOOLSHED. I think it refers to the contents.
Morning, folks. Looks like I'm 3rd! My personal best!
Nearly 4th, here's a consolation 🏅 for taking part 😉🤗
@@paraandy3821LOL! One day, I shall reach the mountain top.
So close 🏆 ❤
Great Scott…
Great guy and Great analysis!
Morning everyone
Good morning! 😊
🥇👏👏👏👏👍😊 👋
Good morning 🌅
@@paraandy3821Hi Andy 🤗 ☀ I have my favorite guest dogs. Lots of wrestling with my dogs. ❤
@@surpriseitsus9622 hey sweetie have a good Saturday 🤗
Good evening Jonathan, thank you for the update 💙💛
Good evening Aussie T 😘
@@surpriseitsus9622 good morning 🫶
Good evening JP👋🙂
Good evening team 👋🙂
👋
@@greenhighlander7 hi Mika👋🙂 I hope you are doing well mate🙂
@@saberint Hi! My life sucks atm. but otherwise I'm fine!😁
@@greenhighlander7 can I help in anyway mate?
@@saberint Thanks for asking, i'm fine enough ☺
Other countries should speak up and say the US cannot dictate how Ukraine uses our weapons.
They are saying the same thing.
@@sirsmeal3192all ???
The position of US and Germany about using their weapons inside Russia just shows how vital it is to develop your own indigenous weapons manufacturing capabilities
For example Israel relies a lot upon the US for many weapons but they have developed one of the worlds most technically advanced weapons industry
Good day Legendary Team
Good day 😊
Thanks JP. Happy Saturday team.☕️😊
A very nice Saturday to you Lada ☕ 🤗
Hello Lada,
I take it you've seen the spat between MTG and JC in Congress? Reminded me of our conversation about 'the bar fight'.....
@@DawnFox-kb1xqHey Dawn. Yes that’s right-you would be the referee and I would be the spectator😂. MTG is such a clown. But she did give is MUGA, so there’s that.
@@LadaGaga93 I'd be surprised if that wasn't just the first round. Wait till the bell rings for round two.
G’day Team, Jonno and all Ukrain-minded others. Have a great Weekend!!😊
Hi Peter 🤗 I have 2 really great guest dogs this weekend ❤
Thanks Jonathan. I love the gummi armband! I wish I could find something similar.
Afternoon everybody, hope all having a great weekend!!☺👍👍👍
🤗
@@greenhighlander7 Hi Mika ☺
Hi Sheryl. Enjoy your weekend 🤗 💐
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn, you too!🤗💐🌹
JP thank you for highlighting Usyk and his fight against Fury. I believe Usyk also volunteered for the Territorial Defense after the 2022 invasion. He is much smaller than Fury and it will be tough for Usyk to prevail, but there is no mistaking the strength of his will.
The numbers. In the last 10 days, Russia has lost over 10000 troops. If Russia has 35000 in Kharkiv, that would mean they lost 29% of their forces. If the number is 50000 that would mean 20%. Can they sustain that number even if the losses in Kharkiv were 60% of the total, that's a big percent.
The number is for the whole front line of 540,000 troops.
Good morning JP. There's a phrase I refer to often, "Nations don't have friends, they have interests." Geopolitics are morally ambiguous. I say that as a veteran of two immoral wars started by my government. I've given up on trying to understand it.
Yup
Good morning 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 Good morning to you
Good Afternoon , Legend , two academic presentations you might be interested in.
Firstly, a short ,10 min, talk from Col Reisner regarding the "transparent battlefield" and that both sides are going to experience shocks in the near future.
Secondly, The University of Newcastle hosted a lecture by Prof Mark Galeotti of UCL (University College London) delivered in red trainers and with a humorous tone, but longer at about three-quarters-of-an-hour. Lecture was yesterday, Friday.
Have a good weekend.
Cheers Jonathan and the increasing ATP Team
Hi Richard 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn and GTSY
Ello, ello, ello lads from Canada. Slava Ukraini
🇨🇦
Ello from Phoenix 🏜 but not a lad
We have all seen multiple drones at various displays or celebrations, all dancing in the sky to order.
G’day all 👍🏻🇦🇺🇺🇦
Good evening 🌃 Bob. I'm taking a chance here 😊
@@surpriseitsus9622 Good evening Lynn, almost sleeping time (22:39) 👍🏻❤️
@@bobrichards6696 ♥ 😴
Ivan's business is going from strength to strength, although he is running out of handles, for the coffins.
Thank you for your coverage and insights
🇬🇧🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🇪🇺
Thank you
🥉👏👏👏👏👍😊
We don’t encourage it, wink 😉, wink 😉, but do what you need to do, wink 😉, wink 😉.
Hi Sheryl 🏜 🤗 😍 😉
ive watched several videos were ukranian artillery men claim they prefer the french caeser as it easily repaired ,the archer tho a great system is very technical
It is just proof that peacetime complexity fails when wartime sustainability is not considered. Same problem with the gravel sucking F-16.
👋
Good day, all. Thanks for the update, JP.
Good day 😊
Novorossiysk heat signature is a rather large cement plant with 3 large rotating kilns and 2 small/medium. These long, very large rotating tubes have fire inside them as they burn the materials to make cement clinker. (Clinker is a solid material that is produced during the manufacturing of portland cement. It is made by heating limestone and aluminosilicate materials, such as clay, in a kiln at a temperature of around 1450°C.) So it is more likely the heat signature is just from an operating cement plant than from any attack on the city. Attacks should concentrate on the fleet and the oil/fuel infrastructure, along with any significant command & control.
Ty JP for dedicating some further air time to re-addressing the ambiguous words coming out of America, with regards the use of US weapons on Russia territory, and highlighting this is not a Black and White issue. I think you presented both sides of this war of word ambiguity that is going on in America, extremely well, and fairly. You eventually came to the conclusion, which I totally agree with, that there is deliberate, and well calculated, ambiguity going on here. I too, find this extremely frustrating but it needs to be looked at within the lens of an America that is in an election year.
In Britain, thankfully, we have both sides of the aisle completely behind Ukraine, backed up by the vast majority of the electoral register. No matter what government is eventually elected in the UK in the autumn there will be no change to the government commitment to Victory in Ukraine. This enables the Foreign Minister to come out with a bold statements like 'UK supplied weapons can be used to attack Russian territory' if Ukraine deems that necessary to pursue its war aims. This is not the situation in the USA, sadly. The reality of all this diplomatic double talk will be born out of future actions.
If I were Zelenskyy I would be pushing this situation to the limit. So once again JP thank you for addressing this issue in greater depth and I look forward to more of your great content. Слава Україні!
I think the problem is possibly that Ukraine don't understand where they stand. That is affecting their prosecution of the war
@@ATPGeo I agree that there may be some scope here for diplomatic ambiguity. The only thing we can hope for is that behind closed doors this is not happening.
I remember well the public stance the US took during the Falklands War. However, on the ground and behind the scenes we did get the support of America. As usual there was more than one war going on.
It is odd that a comment like this can get 1 like and yet a simple Hi, or well done JP, can get 15 to 20 likes.
Ppl obviously like their news in very short sound bites.
Could the increased equipment losses by Ukraine be because they are using more since they have more ammunition and units coming in now? So Ukraine feels they can actually risk them more and aren’t sitting on them because they don’t have replacements coming.
Make busy with the likes and comments folks, help the channel grow!
Thanks for the update JP! Have you watched Anders' Nielsen's vid today about how he views the Kharkiv offensive?
On the middle of it
On US permission to use US weapons inside Russia: it sounds deliberately vague, to me. The message reminds me of the US stance on Taiwan, where the American's agree with the one-China policy on the one hand, but make it unambiguous about what would happen if the CCP tried to take it by force. At some stage Ukraine will have to push the boundaries and use Patriot systems against air assets or cluster munitions against troop concentrations inside Russia. I can't imagine the Americans doing much about it.
That is a lot of dead soldiers during a short 2:22 walk per Anton Geraschenko's video clip.
Not enough.
Yes I agree with JP, hitting fuel is huge. When they started hitting oil and steel I cheered, finally! Take care team!
You and Tim Whaie are correct about the lack of inception rates. They seem to list drone numbers.
Did you notice on the video with the two boats on the river (I believe from Madyar's birds), on approach of a drone of the first boat, a russian jumps overboard off the left side, just when their second boat pulled up along side of it, running rught over the overboard soldier. Interesting video.
Thanks JP and Im glad you were able to sleep in.
From the French newspaper Le Monde: first line Ukrainian units, based on direct testimonials from Ukrainian soldiers, did not receive any artillery shells recently and face shortages in spite of president Zelensky's claim that all units are fully stocked.
Jonathan.... Kharkiv was an obvious Russian target, and has been an obvious Russian target for a long time. No surprises if Ukraine intel is working properly. That means watching for Russian movements that announce the targeting of Kharkiv. No excuse for not anticipating and no excuse for not knowing. The other side of that is that Ukraine's provident allies have no valid excuse for not ramping up supply and maintaing supply of everything that Ukraine needs, in anticipation and preparation for Russian pushes against Kharkiv. Not only Kharkiv but Odessa, and even Kyiv, along with every other significant town and city in Ukraine. However Kharkiv, Odessa and Kyiv are way up the top of the list as Russian targets. Russia fully intends to attack. Russia fully intends to advance. Russia fully intends to take Ukraine. Righth now there are no doubts about that.
What I mean is that Ukraine needs to be defended. America, historically, have been late to the party to WWI and WW2... But where is Britain, France, Germany, Poland, Italy now? Why the constant criticism of the US by Europe nations. I think France needs (and is) showing it needs to standup and support Ukraine with miliary force. Germany the UK and others should also support this.
Hi Jonathan, my thoughts about the restriction of the US to attack on Russian soil are as followed:
1. To kick in an open door: it would not make sense, because if troops and armor are gathering across the border, a preemptive strike is the best way of defense.
2. I still wonder if the US truly restrict Ukraine and in what degree. The questions were very direct, but she kept beating about the bush.
3. It would not surprise me if the US is giving intel to Ukraine on targets in Russia. Could it be the US steers clear from (further) frustrating Russia, China etc.
4. It surprises me China is pressuring the US to degrade the effectiveness of US weapons to not attack on Russian soil. If China is really worried about Russian rhetoric about using nuclear weapons, China should have a talk with Putin and not try to put a leash on US weapon systems.
Ukraine is fighting a tough battle, but if they have to fight with one hand tight behind their back, it is not getting any easier. In practice this means more Ukrainian lives are lost at a time every soldier counts. The US should know better and my hope is their communication with Ukraine differs with what the say in the media.
Cheers, Rick
Hi Jonathan, couldn’t resist to add another message. You have shown drone attacks on armored vehicles resulting in 20-ish Russian soldiers fleeing to safety. I know war is harsh, but that image is so surreal to me, it instantly triggers some bad dark humor reference in my mind:
A vision of clowns storming out of a clown car, followed by the really bad joke thinking “how many popes can you fit into a Volkswagen”.
This happens every time I see a video of this. I hope me spilling my guts works therapeutic and doesn’t plant a seed in other peoples brains who from know on start getting the same crazy thoughts like me.
Cheers, Rick
I was a paramedic for years and dark humor is very appropriate during even short term stressor, not to mention a war. I can picture clown car with Benny Hill music. 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 Noooo, what have you done?! Now the Benny Hill song will be stuck in my head for the entire day. 😂
Should is a green light.
08:55 -
A 3:1 loss ratio might be needed in the short term to attrit the Russian side, but as the European MIC is revving up and the US has just barely begun to dip into their stockpiles, this is only temporary. As time goes by, the Ukrainian side will start to get numerical advantage in a number of categories, while the Russians will be fielding mostly older kit.
Once again, you reveal so much important stuff I'd not heard about.
cheers JP, you da man!
In the video of the one attack on Novorossiysk I just want to point out that the russian filming it is hiding right under a whole mass of gas or oil pipelines. That's not really where I would be standing in the middle of a drone attack.
Yesssssss the return of Ivans arm of tea my day is complete
Hi John 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 greetings me luvver🥰
Afternoon JP 👍😊
Great loss numbers in Arty and vehicles
Tightening of OPSEC was something we saw in and after the first Gulf War. That war was essentially televised live 24/7 and US Intel hated it. (Of course!). Several laws were passed regarding what could be shown so that was likely the first and only televised war. I imagine certain info will be harder to come by, although the drone footage will remain unless they decide to forbid the release of it.
Thank you Jonathan for another in-depth report. The US has fought several wars in which the enemy used a safe haven to attack US forces. In Vietnam communist forces transited and massed in Cambodia and were off limits to US attack. Same in Pakistan during the campaign in Afghanistan.
There’s multiple issues. The US “does not support and discourages” Ukrainian attacks on refineries. But those attacks continue and have increased.
The US prohibits the use of US weapons in offensive strikes into Russia. However the US recognizes Ukraine’s right to defend its territory. Russia recognizes no difference between defensive and offensive strikes.
I assumed it was reluctant allies such as Germany who were worried about escalation. But if the US allowed China to dictate how US weapons are used in Ukraine and Russia and where escalation redlines are being drawn that’s just manipulation by Putin and Xi. That’s unacceptable.
Blinken said the US discourages some action but allows Ukraine to make decisions how to defend itself. Just last night we saw wide ranging attacks on infrastructure inside Russia. We will have to wait and see if US weapons are used for attacks in Belgorad oblast.
As for intelligence I’m sure our European allies can provide that if the US is reluctant. Just as they provided ammunition and weapons during the temporary halt to US aid.
We CANNOT claim to know EVERYTHING
Two points: first, no one worried about what would happen to the world if Germany was broken up after the end of WWII. Two, you raise an important point about not forgetting that most Russian soldiers are victims of Putin s madness, too. Although I consider myself to be a pacifist (mostly), I have also found that I have gradually become more bloodthirsty as the war has continued, as more and more Russian atrocities mount up. The perpetrators of these atrocities should absolutely be held to account, but I would argue that the vast majority of Russians are victims of basically a totalitarian government that has been heavily propagandizing them almost since the day Putin originally took power. There should be no sympathy or mercy for him, however--ever.
Thanks JP for the information and analysis also 👍🇺🇦
Morning everyone! Thank you for your coverage and insights JP.
Thanks for timely updates, you are very reliable with minimal exaggeration an good at clarifying when what is known is part speculation. I notice from listening to Russian propaganda that they have a problem with boundaries and objectives. Russians are good investors when it come to expansion. When I say good, I mean willing, look at Stalin who invaded Poland in 1939 because he could then get half a (Slavic) country for minimal effort. But he then had the Empire problem of "boundary insecurity", which means that he then had a sworn enemy right across from his front fence. As for now, the Russian Federation doesn't know when to stop or when they will be safe. Sometimes Putin says he will be satisfied with Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Crimea and Odessa and an emasculated and approved regime in Kiev with virtually no army. But the propagandists with their usual verbal diarrhea manage to leak the Kremlins real feelings...Ukraine is just a start, Warsaw is next, the Baltics in two days, march back into Berlin, back into Paris, all of Europe, when we are in Lisbon etc. Which just means that these people are never going to feel safe whatever they "win". They started with an SMO police operation to mop up some Nazis, and round up their "cousin" Ukrainian Russians and get them back into the fold. But now that they are at war with the West, and half of the rest of the world. They have sowed the wind and are reaping the whirlwind. The economist who is now in charge of the Ministry of Defence will be doing some accounting in his head: well we have invested 850 billion in this war so far, and including the lost frozen $350 billion, our losses stand at $500 billion, so we need to gain at least two Trillion to make this balance out in our favour..
I predict that in 12 months time, he will be realizing that the increasing investment needed to "win", the devastating costs to Russia's economy, the diminishing returns will start to look like they will be destroying their own country to win nothing, just like Germany did.
Great show has always 😊
👋🏼🫶🏼🇺🇦🇬🇧
Ah yes, the joy of democracy.
Half the country wants one side to win and the other half wants the other side to win.
Nice Tshirt...saw them a few months ago..... amazing show.
They were brilliant in Bournemouth the other night
Hello Jonathan and ATP team 😊
I think that the US can hard wire their long distance munitions to restrict them from hitting targets in Russia. Or they can trigger the munitions to self destruct.
I support you taking the time to put together an in-depth analysis of the policies regarding allied weapons usage by the AFU, from the practical on-the-ground info such as certain types of missiles provisioned to the AFU apparently being tailored to be incapable of being fired into Russian territory by entities providing them to the more abstract concepts of defense-mutual and self-and escalation and how they interact in this war. Querying the gaming out of post-war scenarios and how these speculations are impacting and shaping the outcome of the war. The list goes but what's important here is if you make it I will watch it.
They'll just bring in fuel trucks. Or use flexy rubber tanks. It's another thorn in the side of Russian logistics, though. They will require a steady flow coming in.
M113 is a Vietnam War-era APC with the protection of only aluminum. I would guess they are no longer being manufactured. Does anyone know if they are or not?
just old stocks, quite sure that it's not in production anymore in the west at least.
No, they aren't. Still have a use as 'battle taxis' and evacuating wounded but in a high intensity war like this one they are highly vulnerable on the battlefield. I loved them when l served back in the day, but even then, we knew their limitations.
Not in many years.
As always, Jonathan thinking about making a comment about something but no you got it covered as always.Just one thing though Anders Puck Nielsen just brought out a video basically saying the same as you have about the Kharkiv offensive.Thanks for your work👍👍👍
Hi Q, I have his video saved 👍
@@surpriseitsus9622hi surpriseitsus yes always a interesting watch 👋🖐️👋🖐️🫶🫶🫶
@@surpriseitsus9622hi surpriseitsus 🫶🫶🫶🫶🫶🫶
43:30 re US not providing intelligence on targets inside Russia. Well, duh, of course they won't. Since the US doesn't want US weapons to be used in Russian territory, it clearly follows that the US wouldn't provide targets inside Russian territory either. Makes complete sense.
Logically the US can provide intell on what's coming from Russia without authorising attacks
Vishy Vang Kah, not Shang Kah… Opps! butchered it again 😁! Is Rishi a Wang ker or a Shang ker? Ask yourself this serious question 😁. You certainly know how to pull comments 😄! Fabulous reporting. You’re my #1 source for Ukraine 🇺🇦 news all sorts.
Cheers big ears
You don't miss a thing do you my friend? 😊 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 The curse of having an English teacher for a mother, and language teachers for many generations 😁.
If it helps Jonathan remember, does it matter?
@@sirsmeal3192 He’s been repeating Rishi Wanker all week then said essentially Rishi Shanker, Vishy Shanker. It’s just good natured teasing 😁. See good natured teasing emoji 😁.
To paraphrase Chris Morris on Brass Eye:
“Do you mind explaining how the Ukrainian air force can operate on -400 planes?”
I read this before reading who wrote it, and thought, legend. Then it made sense coming from you.
PEOPLE. "BELIEVE" ! WHAT, THEY WANT. " I, ALWAYS CONSIDER THE SOURCE OF THE INFORMATION"!🧐 🤔
Thank you Legend! ❤
Sup bois
I'm sure that the biggest thought in the heads of the Soviet and Chinese government during the Vietnam War was that the US shouldn't lose
Ukraine should use all weapons to hit forces and equipment over the border in open battle fields But maybe not on substations and infrastructure. Just use their own tools on infrastructure
Algo
They US are saying it's up to Ukraine whether they use weapons in russian territory:.. but, if their use leads to escalation, the US have the caveat, but we said, "best used within Ukrainian territory". ie Not our fault. Inexcusably weak. The west and Ukraine need to draw the lines.
Just wondering where you get the time to read a book as well as do all these videos
...or *_write_* books!
42:40 -
Escalation management is discussed in many articles, academic and other, for instance :
Escalation Management in Ukraine: “Learning by Doing” in Response to the “Threat that Leaves Something to Chance” (Janice Gross Stein, Texas National Security Review, 2023).
Preventing the (Un)thinkable: Escalation Scenarios and Risk Reduction - Measures for Russia and NATO following the War in Ukraine (Sanders, Sweijs & van Hooft, The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, 2022).
Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Evolution of Key Concepts (Kofman, Fink & Edmonds, CNA [Center for Naval Analysis], 2020)
Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Key Debates and Players in Military Thought (Fink & Kofman, CNA [Center for Naval Analysis], 2020)
Preventing Escalation During Conventional Wars (Lieber & Press, PASCC, 2015)
Dangerous thresholds : Managing escalation in the 21st century, (Forrest Morgan et al., RAND, 2008)
Escalation and Deescalation of Crises, Armed Conflicts, and Wars, (Kokoshin, Baluevskii, Esin & Shliakhturov, Book Review by Clint Reach [Russian Series 03/2022], NATO Defense College, 2022)
Against Escalation Management (Peter Juul, The Liberal Patriot, 2024)
If someone said to me We best believe you should/'shouldn't do something Means I can if I want but the consequences from my actions are my responsibility and if I make things worse I would not get EXTRA help on top of what I'm already being helped with to clean the mess up.
The US continues ambiguity, however, Ukraine can define the battlefield to include inside Russia.
Strategic ambiguity and plausible deniability. Should means should. Must means must. U.S. spokespersons and officials never said, “must.”
Where the battle is defines the battlespace, not vice versa.
Slick sophistry.
Lancets killing artillery at the moment(
atacms blowing the shit outta airplanes ,
I think the U.S. messaging to Zelensky, Ukraine and the world should explicitly state, "The US is providing these weapons on the condition they only be used on military targets".
That was an interesting discussion at the beginning concerning russian invaders as victims. All other bloggers on the Ukraine war that I know don't do that. All sworts of reasons were given by JP to support the idea of russians as victims. I wouldn't be as generous to them as JP. I suspect that by far the majority of them were tempted by high wages, and not ideologically "manipulated to fight against nazis". As such they are not victims but perpetrators and henchmen. JP mentions causality and that is an important word because it is related to agency which in turn is related to the term perpetrator. I live and think in a world in which every individual, whether russian soldier or english philosopher, is both victim and perpetrator to some degree or other. The mix is important. That is the perspective of an archaeologist and admittedly not very christian, where pure victims are in abundance and sanctified. I live in a world which has not ghosts or saints, but also no devils. Sometimes it is just a question of nuance as to who is more perpetrator and who is more victim. Sometimes it is bloody obvious as in the invasion of a sovereign country. But that is perhaps what JP is saying here anyway in his own inimicable way. What russians are doing in Ukraine is just a 'snapshot' in time in which we we morally judge'. Reach a verdict. Many of the accused perhaps started life as decent individuals. Others will redeme themselves. Others have paid the ultimate price for their mistake. History never ends. Human behaviour always involves doing things and having stuff done to one. We have to do things in order to survive. We perpetrate in so doing and others often suffer as a result. This claim that everybody who has ever lived is thus both victim and perpetrator but in different degrees is not just a subjective opinion of mine. It is founded in unrefutable logical inductive observation and reason.
This is the free will argument
@@ATPGeo It isn't an "argument". It is a fact as I mention at the end. And I didn't even mention "free will". Free will has nothing to do with what I wrote above. My argument was the Paradox of Existence Argument.
The point is keep it murky for deniability. "That is not what I meant to say." "Op security". If enough Missiles are dropped then the debris will teach Russia to make our equipment. The battle field extends to 100 miles inside Russia, pre 2000 borders.
@50:40 'sh there is supposed to be another major series of solar flares in a couple of weeks. i hope ukr prepares.
"There are situations where you should lie" says JP. A couple of day ago he gave us a lecture on how he never lies. Because of his dad. JP gets very angry if you call him a liar. He doesn't do unto others what they do unto him. No he says "that is empirically not true", or "that was disingenious", which is a eupemism or polite way of saying you liar !
I haven't had the need to lie. The example I gave was against Kant's categorical imperatives, called the Inquiring Murderer thought experiment. I have never had to deny my children being in the house due to an overpowering murderer asking of their whereabouts. I was explaining the principle.
Your rush to catch me on a gotcha is a common thread to your comments!
@@ATPGeo And your ability to wiggle your way out of gotcha comments is a commen thread in your replies !
Well said about view the enemy, so it does not dehumanize a person.
Pity we couldn't get Mr Fury to talk to the Tzar for one minute.