Mid-Year OSCAR INTERNATIONAL FEATURE Predictions (June 2024)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ก.ค. 2024
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All We Imagine as Light can be a possible Oscar win
Seed of The Sacred Fig should be nominated for Best Picture, Director and Screenplay. universal language by Rankin should be nominated by Canada 😍
I'm Still Here is def up there for me. If Here is a reunion of Forrest Gump, this one is basically a reunion of Central Station with Sallas and Montenegro except with Montenegro's daughter Fernanda Torres as the lead. It's pure Oscar bait as a historical biopic during the Brazilian dictatorship, and with the stars being beloved I can see Brazil push heavily for this movie, Sallas for Director, and for the Fernanda mom/daughter duo to get nominated as well. I have Torres as a wild card pick for Actress.
How to Make Millions is ridiculously popular in Asia. I can see it trying to catch on the States if the buzz continues. It's a crowdpleasing tearjerker. Though popular Asian movies have missed before and Thailand hasn't had a nomination before so it has an uphill battle. It's premiering later this month at the New York Asian Film Festival!
I don't think Parthenope gets in despite it being Academy catnip. Nobody liked that movie lol.
Would LOVE to see I'm Still Here be a broader contender outside of international feature. Salles deserves that type of recognition. Central Station and The Motorcycle Diaries were both magnificent.
If How to Make Millions plays at TIFF, I'm all in on it being a thing. If they don't take it there, that says to me that they're content with it just being a commercial thing. That said, it could be like films like Better Days or A Man Called Ove, which were primarily box office hits locally, not major festival players. No matter what, the buzz around this film deserves serious attention.
I hope you're right about Parthenope, I'm just worried A24 + Sorrentino is enough. I guess a good comp would be Bardo, which had a major director, a great distributor, and festival play, but even then couldn't make international feature (although it did get shortlisted). Like Bardo, Parthenope would be worthy of a cinematography (and score) nomination, but shouldn't make international.
I appreciate your videos as they’re always thorough and informative. Thanks.
I don’t have access to any of these movies but based on what you have said I would like to see I’m Still Here (Brazil) get an Oscar nomination as well as Harbin (South Korea) *the movie was part of your extended list
What do you think Spain’s options are going to be? I got my eyes on Escape starring Mario Casas and directed by Rodrigo Cortes. Martin Scorsese is executive producing it
So Spain's submissions are typically a mix of audience hits and festival players. They do lean a bit more populist than some other countries (taking Society of the Snow over other options like Cannes player Close Your Eyes or Berlin winner 20,000 Species of Bees).
In that way, Escape would be a solid pick for them. Although it looks like it's releasing theatrically on October 31st. If it doesn't get a debut at Venice or San Sebastian, I'd write it off because it'll be too late to build up hype for a submission.
Another possible contender is The Other Way Around, directed by Jonás Trueba, which got really good reviews at Cannes. Trueba's been Goya nominated before, so he's known enough in Spain. It's a rom com with an artsy twist to it, so it may not be mainstream enough for a submission.
But without a really clear frontrunner for a submission, the most likely thing is for something to emerge out of Venice/San Sebastian.
Heard me. The french are gonna submit The count of Montecristo adaptation. Look out for that film.
I wouldn't bet on it because it really doesn't feel like what France normally goes for. It would be like if the USA could only submit one film and decided on Deadpool & Wolverine. The Count of Monte Cristo is a major blockbuster, designed for French audiences (from the same company as the recent series of Three Musketeer movies, they're trying to replicate American blockbuster structure, but with French literature).
Look through France's past submissions, it's almost entirely festival awards winners and arthouse films. The one major exception is Intouchables in 2012, which was a huge box office hit. Otherwise, Count of Monte Cristo is totally out of place.
@@fantasyfilmball That comparasion is insane. The count of Montecristo is a very serious drama and one of the most important novels of all time. It had its premiere at Cannes and is right now the highest rated french movie of all time in allocine (french imdb). Lets see.
Also Emilia Perez can be Mexico submission
@@ManuelFernandezCondesa-pd5er It's really not an insane comparison. The company behind The Count of Monte Cristo (Chapter 2 Films & Pathé) is essentially turning French literature into an MCU-style blockbuster franchise. That's the stated goal of the companies, and the directors of the film even described their take on the story as a superhero movie. (Source quote is in here: www.yahoo.com/entertainment/count-monte-cristo-movie-unveils-170031624.html).
It's the same company that made the two Three Musketeers movies over the past couple of years. They're using the principles of American studio movies on French literature. I'm not trying to say the film will be bad, I'm just saying that the selection committee for France isn't going to submit a studio blockbuster, it goes against what they've always submitted.
It's being highly rated for the same reason any American blockbuster gets highly rated upon release. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was the #1 film on letterboxd for a few weeks. I don't expect the 4.5/5 for Monte Cristo to hold for more than a few weeks. The critic score is lower, but still strong (3.9/5). I just don't expect it to be strong enough to overcome films from auteur filmmakers (which is the French selection committee's kryptonite).
Dying is not a Drama, it's a Dramedy, a tragic Comedy.
I thought that There's Still Tomorrow is eligible this year. If it is, Italy will submit that one for sure! And it would be a top 3 contender, might even win! 🤔
I think that until now, it could only lose to Seed of the Sacred Fig and All We Imagine As Light (if they get submitted)
You cannot deny a really big part of the criticism that emilia perez received is due to transphobia
Which is so embarrasing for them, cause as a film critic you need to be open-minded and objective
When it releases, you're absolutely right, this is what the film will be receiving. I've already seen nasty and hateful comments about the film just watching Cannes livestreams. It'll be even worse when it hits Netflix.
I would say that transphobia was not much of a part of the criticism at Cannes though. In fact, I think it was the opposite. A lot of the Cannes critics found the film to be transphobic, or if not that, to be a very cis take on trans stories. I may be incorrect about this, but I believe that the only trans person in a prominent role on the film is Gascón herself. It's yet another example of cis filmmakers telling a trans story.
I'm waiting to read more takes on the film from trans and queer critics, but I could certainly see it get smashed the way The Danish Girl did. Although I did enjoy the movie, it certainly deserves the criticism.
I think the criticism is more so bc it’s a musical…
As a Norwegian I think that the three choices for our country will be Armand, The remarkable life of Ibelin and Quisling: The Final Days. The last one was not on your list, but it's a movie about the man who let the nazis come to Norway, but the film is pretty much structured like "Der Untergang". And the director has been shortlisted with his previous WWII-film (The King's Choice in 2016). They always announce three picks to the public, before settling on the one they are sending to the Academy. I'm curious which pick they will go for, since I see that you also had Ibelin on your maybe-list. It did win big at Sundance and Netflix bought it, so they might put in some punches. Could we see a Honeyland-situation (doc+international). Although I see your point that it could likely be Armand.
Thanks for chiming in Choekaas! Appreciate hearing the opinion of a Norwegian on the films coming out of the country. I hadn't heard about Quisling: The Final Days before, but I wonder if it'll hit any of the fall festivals (like how War Sailor did TIFF a few years ago). It makes sense to be in their top 3, but if it doesn't go to one of the big fests, I can't imagine they'd end up submitting it.
I'd love for them to choose Ibelin, mostly because the film sounds genuinely incredible, and like you mentioned with Honeyland, I'd love to see a double nomination in doc and international.
But I do think the allure of a major Cannes prize, and the nepotism of grandma Liv Ullmann (and grandpa Ingmar Bergman, although less so because he wasn't Norwegian), means that Armand is the likeliest of picks.
@@fantasyfilmball Yeah, I guess you're right. A newspaper here just called Armand "our Oscar hope", so I think a lot of people want the country to choose it haha. Ibelin was indredibly emotional and very creatively solved in terms of its storytelling (combining the story of him as well as how they recreated his virutal life through logs and emails) . I could see Netflix trying to push it towards a Best documentary nom. Don't think it could garner a win, but I think it could definitely be a contendor for a nom in documentary regardless of which film gets selected for International.
Good picks, but I do disagree with that fact that The Seed of the Sacred Fig would win if it was eligible.
Interesting, I'm curious why you don't think it would win? It would, at the very least, be top 2 with Emilia Perez.
@@fantasyfilmball I see Emilia Perez as the winner, because it's by far the strongest Best Picture possibility. IMO.
@@oskari7121i think they both get into picture
France will not submit a Netflix film. And of course as a big film country they find something else to submit.
Very good point, but it's worth considering that Netflix is not distributing it in France, and had nothing to do with its production. That could make enough difference.