Immigration Cuts Could Push Canada into Hard Landing - The Loonie Hour Episode 129

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 มี.ค. 2024
  • Immigration Minister announces big cuts to population growth. How will this slow the economy and rents? Rabidoux thinks the Bank of Canada will have to cut rates more than expected. OSFI keeps the mortgage stress test on lender switches. Trudeau announces renters bill of rights.
    Check out industry-leading BMO ETFs here: www.bmogam.com/ca-en/products...
    Check out Ben Rabidoux's work at Edge Analytics Research: edgeanalytics.ca/
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    #TheLoonieHour #Macroeconomics #PersonalFinanceCanada
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ความคิดเห็น • 307

  • @hersdera
    @hersdera หลายเดือนก่อน +232

    I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better

    • @ScottKindle-bk3hx
      @ScottKindle-bk3hx หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      As hard as it may sound you can plan for the recession. If you are working, find extra work and get an Invest--advisor. Protect your deposits by having enough cash in short term fixed income. Then cut your expenses. Minimal insurance, cut utilities.

    • @EddyAgnes-vy4kp
      @EddyAgnes-vy4kp หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I think the current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner

    • @nicolasbenson009
      @nicolasbenson009 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.

    • @Hectorkante
      @Hectorkante หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Even if you have a humongous income you still need to draw up futuristic plans because anything can happen. One could lose one's job or whatever. Investment cannot be overemphasized. About your advisor, how does one reach pls

    • @nicolasbenson009
      @nicolasbenson009 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

  • @SzymonStas
    @SzymonStas หลายเดือนก่อน +49

    Gotta turn up the TV so I can hear you guys over the sound of the homeless guy tweaking out and screaming outside my apartment. God bless this mess. 🇨🇦

    • @huskavarnaband
      @huskavarnaband หลายเดือนก่อน

      These idiots aren't on tv man. What you talkin a bout

    • @jay1645
      @jay1645 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Homeless guy replaced a few immigrants lol

  • @Fordtruck4sale
    @Fordtruck4sale หลายเดือนก่อน +31

    Ben's the best guest

  • @normalaverageeverydayguy2600
    @normalaverageeverydayguy2600 หลายเดือนก่อน +34

    1M+ young foreign men with no gf and no future. How can that possibly go wrong?!?!?
    National security issue is right.

    • @Iliinois18
      @Iliinois18 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Thank soros et al...

    • @normalaverageeverydayguy2600
      @normalaverageeverydayguy2600 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @jameswilliams3304 I've met quite a few that have gone to the US or Mexico. Usually their somewhat well off and have capital. Their the smart ones.
      The ones your talking about is shitty for you guys. Good for us I guess.

    • @mariadias738
      @mariadias738 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Iliinois18(

    • @merpusderpulan7612
      @merpusderpulan7612 หลายเดือนก่อน

      US national guard will have to come clean them up. We don’t have the military to do it.

    • @rishi505
      @rishi505 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      JUSTIN T NEED TO RESIGN

  • @curtisbrennan7134
    @curtisbrennan7134 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    Hi I listen to you guys every week.
    I put you on in my truck and listen while I work.
    Canada is in big trouble!

    • @icecapassetmanagementlimit849
      @icecapassetmanagementlimit849 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      How big is your truck?

    • @curtisbrennan7134
      @curtisbrennan7134 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@icecapassetmanagementlimit849Depends on the day. I drive all sizes Curbsides, 3 tonnes, Dump trucks, Tractors.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Love it

  • @dutchgirl7603
    @dutchgirl7603 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Angry Mortgage did a fabulous summary of the Renters Bill of Rights .. nearly fell off my chair laughing. Carolyn had some questions from the audience if she thought fiscal policies were contributing to the lack of productivity and she totally backed off. How, specifically, in her speech was she throwing daggers at the government?

  • @cyb_structure
    @cyb_structure หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    So many great guests, Ben is one of my fav’s.
    The excellent fireside chats continue 👊🏼

  • @rishi505
    @rishi505 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    JUSTIN T NEED TO RESIGN. NEEDTO STOP REFUGEES AND STUDENTS

    • @jay1645
      @jay1645 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Used to dance in ethnic costumes abroad to attract immigrants lol and what a mess !!

    • @rishi505
      @rishi505 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jay1645 Best bet spend some time to aware people how bad are liberals and Justin T . Next election Canada can bounce back

  • @jz12390
    @jz12390 หลายเดือนก่อน +16

    Canada needsto de-ponzi the economy.. Like ripping off a band aid..

    • @merpusderpulan7612
      @merpusderpulan7612 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Get rid of the carbon tax and incentivize natural resource development and export.
      Build LNG export infrastructure.

  • @andreasasatya9188
    @andreasasatya9188 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Big brain comment from Ben regarding immigration, right there. Masterclass.

  • @shubhkarmnsingh2286
    @shubhkarmnsingh2286 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Former international student here. The way the student pathway is advertised across the world is far from the real experience. Students are sold subpar education for a hefty price tag. But they don’t really care since they are working 60 hours a week on college weeks either way.

    • @rachel107511
      @rachel107511 หลายเดือนก่อน

      So here's my question, is the tfw or student coming over now complicit, and do they know how unethical it is? I've seen lmia fraud skyrocket, and I realized how pervasive immigration fraud is throughout society.
      I can't figure out if the average student *wink wink* actually realizes they're using it for pr fast track and their education is a sham, or whether they're bamboozled.

    • @jay1645
      @jay1645 หลายเดือนก่อน

      What kind of work do these students do ? See some at a local grocery cashiers, stocking shelves etc

    • @carsondrover5028
      @carsondrover5028 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I feel ya man. I don’t have an ounce of blame for any individual int-student, I have seen the way immigration companies across the sea advertise Canada and its way to charitable.

    • @shubhkarmnsingh2286
      @shubhkarmnsingh2286 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jay1645 Anything they can get their hands on honestly, a lot of them do not have great language skills so they can get stuck in entry level warehouse or general labour positions but can not get out because of the lack of financial backing from their home country. Basically a great way to keep wages low for companies since they have a revolving door of new immigrants every few months.

    • @shubhkarmnsingh2286
      @shubhkarmnsingh2286 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@carsondrover5028 True I am glad you're not quick to blame it on the people coming in. They wouldn't have been let in if policies were tighter. They could definitely do a better job at integrating once they're here though. Either way most people in an impoverished country will do anything to get an entry ticket to a better "first-world" country, should be up to the governance to protect the system from being abused.

  • @user-cw7jy9zr3z
    @user-cw7jy9zr3z หลายเดือนก่อน +10

    50% cut in paper gains on housing should be the goal

    • @rishi505
      @rishi505 หลายเดือนก่อน

      JUSTIN T NEED TO RESIGN

  • @tiffany.Elizabeth.
    @tiffany.Elizabeth. หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    And now we have rooming slumlords in Oakville

  • @heathmckenzie6875
    @heathmckenzie6875 หลายเดือนก่อน +18

    We didn't need any NPRs to fill the labour market, mega corporations needed NPRs to keep wage growth flat while filling roles. Also we need to lower the PR cap significantly to really get things under control.

    • @JonathanRogler
      @JonathanRogler หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Exactly, there was no labour shortage when all the jobs these fake student slaves are working are still minimum wage. They would’ve been forced to raise them if there was truly a shortage.

  • @fromabove9774
    @fromabove9774 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Keith said in a previous episode that the Canadian economy needs population growth to keep up the GDP facade, which is impossible to maintain anyway. Now due to polling they’re going to turn off the tap; this timeline couldn’t get any more hilarious and we still have almost 2 more years of Liberal policies to go! 😂

    • @icecapassetmanagementlimit849
      @icecapassetmanagementlimit849 หลายเดือนก่อน

      We believe this is creating better visibility for investment opportunities and allocation of risks.

  • @dirtlump
    @dirtlump หลายเดือนก่อน +13

    The Canadian fundamental is completely unsustainable anywhere one looks by any metric applicable.... from immigration to Real Estate/Housing/Banking & Finance/Health Care/Education and on and on and on....
    basically because it has all been fueled and maintained by unprecedened in history DEBT instrument growth.... that DEBT accumulation now entirely "debasement" predicated.... without the corresponding future economic/GDP/productivity growth that has NOT occurred !
    That 'future' has now arrived.... and in a nutshell we are all now living waaaay beyond our 'means' with even current 'entitlements unsustainable within a collpasing/unsustainable DEBT expansion based economic GDP.
    Yeah.... it's THAT Bad !

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I thought the same a while back so I compared Canada's currency to every other country I could think of. With the exception of the obvious few countries like Turkey, Argentina etc etc, Canada's currency has not moved appreciably against other countries. Then I compared these countries to the price of gold. Again, gold was up approx the same amount in all currencies. Conclusion#1: all countries are debasing their currency in unison and inflation is a coordinated global plan. Conclusion #2: buy gold.

    • @dirtlump
      @dirtlump หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@meddlehedd1194
      Gold is fine... fantastic in fact.
      That said, I would suggest that beyond 5-10% of anyone's portfolio.... Bullets become equally valuable at that point ?

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@dirtlump you don't have to blab about it. Nobody is going to believe you own it anyway. Nobody buys gold.

    • @jay1645
      @jay1645 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Which is why I cashed out at the CV peak in housing sold and left for a lower tax jurisdiction lol

  • @vikingvancouver9832
    @vikingvancouver9832 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Great episode. Minimum wage in Ontario is going up 3.9% - just announced. BC will likely be the same or higher. Property tax increases were double digit in many jurisdictions this years. Energy costs are rising. This (and other things) suggests to me that inflation will likely remain stubbornly high over time at +3%. This might make it hard for the Bank of Canada to cut too aggressively or too fast.

  • @leonardmccannon3136
    @leonardmccannon3136 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Pushing a million people a year into a nation that has a profound housing crisis, and a contracting economy thanks to deliberate deindustrialization that is hollowing out the economy is an absolute train wreck. Perhaps some interests are fine with this because they are more insulated from the consequences than others, but it’s terrible public policy.

    • @m.b5777
      @m.b5777 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      😂 they don't care about the public. Did you wake up today

    • @jay1645
      @jay1645 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Pvt colleges no one has heard of, immigration consultants, airlines, slumlords etc are contributing to the eco on the backs of (mass?) immigration ? lol being re-configured ?

  • @Christopher.Capital
    @Christopher.Capital หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    Ummm, Rich I'm pretty confident there's a lot of millenials and younger actually wanting housing costs to decrease in half. They nearly doubled in just what, 5 yrs, depending on he markets you're looking at? The fact is, a LOT of people have been left behind in the dust over the last 5 yrs, as the currency's been devalued against assets and basic cost of living (food,rent) inflation has skyrocketed, while wages haven't even remotely kept up for the working class. It was widely being spoken about even 10 yrs ago how millennials have been left behind in home ownership. It's way worse now.

    • @donm2067
      @donm2067 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Acreages in my area 4x since covid

    • @Christopher.Capital
      @Christopher.Capital หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@donm2067 I've seen markets around me, on the west coast, go up 4x or more too, just since 2021

    • @jay1645
      @jay1645 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Avg. home price to wages is a joke 12x+ ?? lol

  • @AmolGharat
    @AmolGharat หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    With change in immigration How will slumlords pay for their million dollars mortgage if they can't find 20 students to stuff their basements 😮😅😂

  • @davidkania3720
    @davidkania3720 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    We should also diversify where these imigrants come from. Equal % of people from everywhere.

    • @yourmainful
      @yourmainful หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Gee ya think!

    • @Iliinois18
      @Iliinois18 หลายเดือนก่อน

      3rd world immigration leads to 3rd world country.

    • @KJV1776WASP
      @KJV1776WASP หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Yes it should be 0% from everywhere until we sort ourselves out. And then 100% from Europe.

    • @davidkania3720
      @davidkania3720 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @jameswilliams3304 better than all Indians

    • @jay1645
      @jay1645 หลายเดือนก่อน

      It has always been who can pay their way in here from Hong Kongers 2 decades ago as far as I can remember lol

  • @dans.6056
    @dans.6056 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    This was amazing! Ben is always an awesome guest on the show!

  • @rezarentals
    @rezarentals หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Excellent show today! Thank you.

  • @Fundywhatshappening
    @Fundywhatshappening หลายเดือนก่อน

    Loonie hour is one of the best drive and listen programs, thanks for keeping us informed on this stuff :)

  • @royalcityrob
    @royalcityrob หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Fantastic episode.

  • @chrisbedwards
    @chrisbedwards หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    500k PRs a year is still way to high considering our housing crunch.

    • @jay1645
      @jay1645 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Keeping folks who benefit off renters happy ?

  • @mariabolivar1503
    @mariabolivar1503 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great episode guys

  • @meddlehedd1194
    @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I have a neighbour friend that just renewed. New payment is $1,000/mo higher. I showed him Tiff's clip from 2020. He was oblivious and not impressed.

    • @Rawdiswar
      @Rawdiswar หลายเดือนก่อน

      Any idea of previous and new interest rates?

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Rawdiswar Gold has been on a tear, so if gold knows, then I am guessing rates are coming down. But when?

  • @SzymonStas
    @SzymonStas หลายเดือนก่อน +34

    “Nobody wants house prices cut in half”
    I do. I want that. There’s a couple of angry generations that want it and will vote for anybody who can deliver it, regardless of the consequences. We will vote for somebody who promises to burn it all down.

    • @joeflake5829
      @joeflake5829 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      It would be nice to have more of an adjustment downward, but aside from that it would be nice to see house value growth stagnate for a few years (that's what happened in 1990). The higher rates have helped the last year or so, but there is still a lot of pent up demand. It always comes down to supply vs demand. It will be interesting to see how immigration really plays out the next couple of years, we have had such high numbers under the present government I think even with low immigration it will take a long while to build enough rental residences and those to purchase to catch up. I ran into a guy I know last week that supplies construction material in the GTA, and he said the plan for most builders is to finish projects already started, but to back off on starting new projects right now. Aside from the prices to purchase, it is to me beyond obscene what rentals are going for today in most areas.

    • @markz1013
      @markz1013 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Yeah. There's no way a shack in Scarborough is worth over a million. At most they should be around 400k. Which is where they were a few short years ago.

    • @yourmainful
      @yourmainful หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Capital gains tax for prinicple.residents will do it. Seeing houses bough 10 yrs ago in van for 850k relisted for 2,600,000 it is vomit inducing.

    • @yourmainful
      @yourmainful หลายเดือนก่อน

      Same house same crap 10 yrs older zero renos. 🤮🤢🤢🤢🤢

    • @yourmainful
      @yourmainful หลายเดือนก่อน

      100000 percent because of 1 thing and only 1 thing. Immigration. Period.

  • @alexg9727
    @alexg9727 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    with a 7% unemployment how can you justify this to Canadians

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

      justify what?

    • @alexg9727
      @alexg9727 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@meddlehedd1194 more immigration

    • @alexg9727
      @alexg9727 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@meddlehedd1194 when close 1 in 10 Canadians are unemployed if you factor in gig economy how can you say we need immigrants

    • @alexg9727
      @alexg9727 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@meddlehedd1194 we should be taking ZERO immigrants until that number is closer to 2%

    • @alexg9727
      @alexg9727 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@meddlehedd1194 As long as there is any unemployed Canadians we should not even take a single immigrant

  • @fwra1234
    @fwra1234 หลายเดือนก่อน

    the first cut is the deepest, haven't heard that one since i was a child

  • @user-dy3hz9yf8h
    @user-dy3hz9yf8h หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great guest guys!

  • @surprisek3918
    @surprisek3918 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    What do you mean no one wants house prices cut in half? Look at southern Ontario? That would mean the average home price would fall to 700-800k, which is STILL not affordable for the average first home buyer.

  • @bradleygeekie8761
    @bradleygeekie8761 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great channel.

  • @dman9416
    @dman9416 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great subject matter expert in Ben.

  • @zhiliangxing7538
    @zhiliangxing7538 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    the profit early buyers are taking or in their equity is the price late buyers have to pay. that’s just the business model of so called REI, US is like that, China is, and Japan too. in that sense, REI is like a ponzi scheme, the earlier(higher) people is in the chain, the more money they make. You need new buyers(younger generation or new immigrants) to keep the music on. will the music stop one day? definitely. will it be soon, no one knows. homeowners who got in before 2017 are definitely winners no matter what, even if price cut in half, but whoever still trust “now is always the best time to buy”, I think that’s gamble.
    Only dumb foolish people would think that real estate will never go into a downturn. A cycle always start with legit reason, low debt, good productivity growth, population booming, then the craziest period which generate eye popping profit rate is always about leverage. Some people would always argue what do you mean by affordability? It has been unaffordable for decades, it's laughable to even talk about affordability. Well, the truth is when everyone is in a bubble for way too long, they think that is the new norm until the tide eventually turns. That is exactly what Warren Buffett mean by the quote "When the tide goes out, you see who's swimming naked." Interesting thing is if you ask someone in Canada would he/she buy a property even if it's so expensive comparing to income and need to borrow million dollars, they would likely say yes if they can borrow. But if you change the question to, if the probability of double your money and loss half of you money is 50/50, would you borrow 1 million dollar and make a bet, people would likely say no. The number is just made up, but my point here is, the recency bias Canadians have is so strong that they are probably not making rational decisions in terms of buying real estate property or not.
    This is just an overall picture, it doesn't mean there is no good REI project in Canada. There is for sure, but generally speaking, a lot of retail buyers are just gamblers

    • @yourmainful
      @yourmainful หลายเดือนก่อน

      1000000percent

  • @mr.d4295
    @mr.d4295 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Steve, the extra amount of interest you pay by extending your amortization back to 30 years and the increased size of the payment just basically negates any price appreciation that the house could make in the next few years. You should tell us just how much you're actually going to be in paying extra interest. So realistically, a button was pushed, but the problem wasn't solved your paying an insane amount of extra money in interest

    • @thanks4that261
      @thanks4that261 หลายเดือนก่อน

      That kind of thinking is what has turned our middle class into lower middle class. Inflation makes assets worth more and debt worth less. Run different scenarios and you'll always find that the interest on a mortgage is a drop in the bucket.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  หลายเดือนก่อน

      Sure that’s true. I’ve got a long run way and can always accelerate principal payments

    • @mr.d4295
      @mr.d4295 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@saretsky
      Thanks for the reply.
      I do enjoy your shows.

  • @Ghostmanriding
    @Ghostmanriding หลายเดือนก่อน

    Such an excellent show!
    Im a Canadian living in the States and I will likely make some cash offers on BC properties this summer to winter when the repos go up and prices fall. I'm also hoping for Cdn dollar weakness. I know that sounds awful but Canada has been just too tough for me do business in and live there full time anymore.

  • @paulnormandy6247
    @paulnormandy6247 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Love you guys. Can you post a link next week for Loonie Hour swag?

    • @Iliinois18
      @Iliinois18 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Googke it.

  • @KingUnKaged
    @KingUnKaged หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Ron Butler has a good rant on the recent renter legislation, but the gist of his criticism on the "rent applying to credit score" thing is: anyone who has the kind of money to buy a home in Canada almost by definition must have good credit - for someone who has the $100,000+ for a down payment and an income to support a mortgage in the hundreds of thousands at 5%, a low credit score probably isn't any sort of barrier

  • @markhoffman
    @markhoffman หลายเดือนก่อน +14

    Listening to Steve it seems like the can just keeps getting kicked down the road. The next generation will be so jaded they will not take care of our wrinkly butts.

    • @sherdonforbes3480
      @sherdonforbes3480 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The immigrants and gov will take care of mortage debtors. Previous generations and gov sold out the prosperity of future generations for high home prices and to pay for pensions. Why would you care about someone who doesn't care about you?

    • @jadejackson1509
      @jadejackson1509 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I'm voting for whoever defunds OAS right now. Lower the maximum payout from 75k to 30k. But with premiers defunding healthcare like mad, maybe that will get y'all first.

  • @Ride-an-animal
    @Ride-an-animal หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Good to have Ben or someone similar in the show. You three guys are way too bearish and Ben was able to make some balance. Please consider making this change, people actually are getting influence by you

  • @ThomasMullaly-do9lz
    @ThomasMullaly-do9lz หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    How worried are people about lone wolf terrorist attacks when the American and Canadian economy tanks? Did anyone read that RCMP report on unrest in the next 5 years. If I was middle class and lived in the suburbs I would be worried about home invasion and growing addiction.

  • @Casey-qm1nd
    @Casey-qm1nd หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Ben is going to be right.
    On a personal note, the BoC should not diverge from the US but they prob will. The BoC diverging from the fed is what will keep assets stubbornly propped up and living standards subdued for a period of stagnation. I agree with Ben, no huge crash in prices. However it will be a crash in living standards instead. This could last for several years like Ben said.

    • @likesky8
      @likesky8 หลายเดือนก่อน

      BOC should diverge.. Unemployment in US is 3.8% while in Canada it's 6.1%.

  • @SWEETVENOM100
    @SWEETVENOM100 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Ben’s one of the best, always a pleasure hearing his thoughts.

  • @valerienikkel3072
    @valerienikkel3072 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The Loonie Hour needs to move to Toonie Two. I could listen for 2 hours. 😊

  • @VictoriaPorscheGuy
    @VictoriaPorscheGuy หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Is Steve capable of understanding that people who took out variable mortgages at 2% in 2021 still have to renew into a substantially higher monthly payment?
    The money has to come from somewhere. This isn’t a “push a button” fix when the market goes no bid

    • @likesky8
      @likesky8 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The people you mention have been paying 7% on their variable rate mortgages for nearly a year now. So what's your point? Lol

  • @veeo987
    @veeo987 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I really enjoyed this episode. It was very informative. Your guest Ben was very interesting and I watched the full video. Much more information than FOMO-inducing crap you read in the media.

  • @kZod
    @kZod หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Great Content Guys! Steve, quick question if you are comfortable sharing...if rates are most likely coming down what was your thought process for locking into 3-yr fixed? Will you not end up paying high IRD if you break the contract within a year? Thanks for Bringing Ben again on the show! thank you.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  หลายเดือนก่อน

      I think the BoC cuts but that doesn’t necessarily mean fixed rates are moving materially lower. Fiscal spending / new bond issuance could keep yields higher

  • @garotorossian690
    @garotorossian690 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Good episode

  • @mogulrider
    @mogulrider หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    There are larger, more important , factors that are not being considered.
    1. Sovereign debt crisis
    2. Inflation
    3. Debt overhang in all sectors
    Historically the post crackup boom is ugly.
    4. Stick market crash.
    5. WW3
    My base case is far worse than a hard landing.

  • @paulinebowen5170
    @paulinebowen5170 หลายเดือนก่อน +14

    House prices needs to be cut in half. We need massive number of homes built. Who cares if banks go under. Too much greed in RE industry.

    • @thanks4that261
      @thanks4that261 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Bro, there is no greed in any industry, things get sold at their market value, that's what a free market is. House prices literally ARE cut in half if you move to Saskatchewan, which you are very welcome to do. I don't get upset that I can afford a house on the coast in West Van LOL come on man.

    • @paulinebowen5170
      @paulinebowen5170 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@thanks4that261 There is massive greed in RE in this country. This is not my opinion it is a fact. That is why so many homeless people and food bank is overwhelmed with people. I am not going to icebox Saskatchewan. Canada home prices is rated as one of the most overpriced in the G7. Just because you are not affected does not mean it os not overpriced. A young person just starting out in life and cannot afford to buy a home shows something is very wrong.

    • @tiffany.Elizabeth.
      @tiffany.Elizabeth. หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@thanks4that261 ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    • @funkspinna
      @funkspinna หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      ​@@paulinebowen5170LOL at "greed". People sell their houses for as much as they can get. And you would too.

    • @paulinebowen5170
      @paulinebowen5170 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@funkspinna and the idiots pay that price thinking home prices only goes up. Well they are coming down and people who bought homes they cannot afford will be going thru some pain in the next few years.

  • @lucpro9181
    @lucpro9181 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Only 5 Mil mortgages.. so rest of properties are owned outright, no mortgage?? Huh.. interesting

  • @georgedavidson1221
    @georgedavidson1221 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    Thousands of. Criminals coming into. The country

  • @Christopher.Capital
    @Christopher.Capital หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    What would be the bank's role once we end up in a new global financial system, with CBDC's being the backbone of it. Will bank's still have a role, or wouldn't it all be through CB's, a consolidated even more Centralized system.

  • @lynnspencer7753
    @lynnspencer7753 หลายเดือนก่อน

    How will the banks choose which mortgages to take to reach their quota?

  • @hicksjesse
    @hicksjesse หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    One of the best, most concise interviews I’ve heard in months.

  • @tmb3224
    @tmb3224 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Anyone who says “I’ll just rent it out for a year, and sell when the market is better”, needs to understand the tenancy laws and risks of being a landlord! It isn’t that easy to boot your tenant out when you feel it’s a good time to sell!

    • @evangoode9685
      @evangoode9685 หลายเดือนก่อน

      This is a misleading comment. All you need is to give 2 months notice to vacate if you “rent out for a year, and sell when the market is better”. Unless you signed a multiple year lease, you can give notice to the tenants to vacate after the one year tenancy is up when someone buys the property and plans to move in.

    • @blobtv7444
      @blobtv7444 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@evangoode9685 lol, you need to learn about the horrible system

    • @evangoode9685
      @evangoode9685 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@blobtv7444 I live the horrible system. I’ve been a realtor and a landlord for over 12 years. I manage my own properties and have dealt with dozens of this exact scenario on my listings and working with buyers. I’ve also sold a few of my own rental properties and have experienced it first hand.

  • @edubmf
    @edubmf หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    > oh no rents are going to fall
    Canadian "values" are so skewed.
    Cheaper rents == more productivity
    > nobody wants house prices to be cut in half
    many people want this

    • @tiffany.Elizabeth.
      @tiffany.Elizabeth. หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      The only people who don’t want lower house prices are speculators or those who bought near and at the peak.

    • @edubmf
      @edubmf หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@tiffany.Elizabeth. so these guys

    • @thanks4that261
      @thanks4that261 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@tiffany.Elizabeth. that's the dumbest assumption I've ever heard. No offense.

    • @tiffany.Elizabeth.
      @tiffany.Elizabeth. หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@thanks4that261 ever? Wow thanks.

  • @adrianasher1457
    @adrianasher1457 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Lol more than 0.75% cuts. Guess we will see hyperinflation then. That should be exciting. Thank God these guys don't make any of the central banks decisions. Clearly Ben and Steve are massive bag holders

    • @thanks4that261
      @thanks4that261 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Yeah you're right, Tiff and the bank of Canada members are awesome, they're always right, and super trustworthy too. 🤡

  • @davidkania3720
    @davidkania3720 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Lol wouldn't be talking to you clowns. That's harsh humor I like it 😂

  • @hill4377
    @hill4377 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Lol at the 12 min mark. Totally left out his payment now is 75% interest now lol. Guess that piece of advice is glossed over.

  • @pin65371
    @pin65371 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Have you guys reached out to Carolyn Rogers to see if she would come on the podcast? I'm not sure if there would be rules against that but she seems like she would be an interesting guest. I watched the speech she did in Halifax and it was very interesting.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  หลายเดือนก่อน

      I doubt she would join but we will ask

    • @pin65371
      @pin65371 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@saretsky yah worst case scenario she says no. One podcast you might find interesting is the Pirate Wires Podcast. The guy that runs it just did a podcast with the people planning that California Forever project down in California where they want to build a brand new city. I figured it would be some tech utopia project but they actually want to build it more like an early 1900's city. After listening to that I am thinking that is what needs to happen in Canada. We are trying to fix already built cities when maybe the answer is to build totally new cities.

  • @enkhyy
    @enkhyy หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Another deficit budget is coming up with higher taxes and a growing national debt. Kick the can down the road and bring 1.3 million people on board to put on more pressure.

  • @nickzivs
    @nickzivs หลายเดือนก่อน

    “… and for the government to have efficient execution of its plan.” I LOL’d as well being a municipal government employee and seeing how disgustingly mismanaged just my department/organization is let alone “the government” as a whole. Helps mold libertarians. God help us 😂

  • @jadejackson1509
    @jadejackson1509 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Oil isn't the main source of plastics, most plastic is made with natural gas. Also electricity in Canada comes primarily from nuclear and hydro.
    I literally own a place outright, and I want house prices to go to half so I can move up.
    And I hope every realtor goes homeless and every boomer is poor af in their retirement. God forbid rentals should be less than a full time minimum wage or some old person has to stop buying a new car every 5 years and two cruises a year. God forbid millenials should have real savings.

    • @philipclift7205
      @philipclift7205 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The main ingredient in most plastic material is a derivative from crude oil and natural gas. You sir, are incorrect.

    • @philipclift7205
      @philipclift7205 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Canada is the second largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world. Hydroelectricity accounts for 59.3 per cent of the country's electricity supply. Other sources include coal, uranium, natural gas, petroleum and non-hydro renewable sources.Jun 15, 2020.
      Electricity comes primarily from hydro snd coal. You 2 for 2.

    • @jadejackson1509
      @jadejackson1509 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Different polymers are made with different components often including oil derivitives, 90%+ of plastic comes from natural gas, the derivitive you are speaking of is a form of natural gas. natural gas is the state of most simple hydrocarbons which are the building blocks for most plastics. You sir are incorrect.@@philipclift7205

  • @mxlado2200
    @mxlado2200 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You guys should make a shirt with, "the economic fantasy land commonly known as Europe" - not sure if this is 100% the right quote but you get it. Some women's sizes would also be great if possible.

    • @icecapassetmanagementlimit849
      @icecapassetmanagementlimit849 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Economic FantasyLand called Europe!

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@icecapassetmanagementlimit849 conspicuously absent from the swag shop is the NO CBDC Tee lol

    • @icecapassetmanagementlimit849
      @icecapassetmanagementlimit849 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@meddlehedd1194 great idea/suggestion. Let's see what we can do.

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@icecapassetmanagementlimit849 perhaps open a financing division to assist with the $35 lol

  • @edubmf
    @edubmf หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Ben Rabidoux: they're going to do what they said they would do
    You're sitting ducks for fraud guys.

  • @Mark-id7fq
    @Mark-id7fq หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    We need to drill baby drill! Can’t have an economy based on RE only

  • @edubmf
    @edubmf หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    > pull a couple of strings
    Scamada

  • @LanceBryantGrigg
    @LanceBryantGrigg หลายเดือนก่อน

    Do you have a theory where its possible not to have a negative outcome?
    To much immigration last year and that wasn't good.
    To little immigraiton this year and that wasn't good either.
    Basically it's just never good lol.

  • @veeo987
    @veeo987 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    "Nobody wants to see home prices cut in half" I do.

  • @strawwalker8177
    @strawwalker8177 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Good

  • @chefmarv6499
    @chefmarv6499 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Ah, OSFI finally implementing some window guidance.

  • @andrewvader9077
    @andrewvader9077 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The twinkie bet LOL I think the boc will be proactive and cut 25 points.
    The boc if they are reactive they will probably cut 75

  • @TyrannosaurusPapa
    @TyrannosaurusPapa หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Canada needs a ‘great housing reset’.

  • @meddlehedd1194
    @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

    If you can't make "a single penny" on a $35 tee shirt, don't quit your jobs as money managers, real estate agents and analysts LOL.

  • @Rawdiswar
    @Rawdiswar หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Need some Loonie Hour snap backs, they'll sell like downtown Vancouver condos.

  • @johnnyboyvan
    @johnnyboyvan หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    End of dates for Rich...lol 😊 The t shirt dooms you.

  • @PaidShills
    @PaidShills หลายเดือนก่อน +14

    I would literally accept a 50 year great depression if it meant my country could stop being invaded.

    • @edubmf
      @edubmf หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Countries have borders for people and capital.

    • @richyrich3285
      @richyrich3285 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Lol winner of the dumbest comment of the year goes to..

    • @SzymonStas
      @SzymonStas หลายเดือนก่อน

      So what you’re saying is that you hate immigrants so much that you would sacrifice any sort of prosperity in your life to keep them away from you? Did I read this right?

    • @SzymonStas
      @SzymonStas หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      So this is not a case of closing our borders to protect our economic prosperity for you. This is more about you not liking them?

    • @PaidShills
      @PaidShills หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      @@SzymonStas this is about the fact that the people of Canada have a culture that we are entitled to KEEP, and we are not just some economic zone free-for-all for every third worlder who wants to wander in.

  • @meddlehedd1194
    @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

    i wonder how many people complaining about buying a house got an education in a field that is in demand vs how many are mired in student load debt with a Sociology or Business degree. Also how many can buy a fixer upper because they learned DIY skills vs how many need a turn key home because they didn't take shop class in high school. It's always someone else's fault.

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @jameswilliams3304 yeah well I know a teacher that gave it up to be a real estate agent a few years ago. He's back to teaching part time. I agree with you though....why would anyone start a business with all the govt regulation that we have to through and all of the BS rights that employees have. Most laborers aren't worth $25/hr....($17.20/hr + CPP + EI + vacation pay + paid "sick" days + paid "sick" days without a note).

  • @TheGamingAbyss
    @TheGamingAbyss หลายเดือนก่อน

    UH OH BANKS

  • @Varietyiskey1
    @Varietyiskey1 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Steve, did your mortgage payment go up? What’s that changeover doing to your personal balance sheet?
    Thanks

  • @tombrodzinski157
    @tombrodzinski157 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great guest.
    Never bring back Erin the tool back.

  • @SeanTheNoob
    @SeanTheNoob หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank god I got permanent residence in Mexico for my family during covid.
    This shit would NOT fly here.
    Mexico has a great next 50 years coming

  • @huskavarnaband
    @huskavarnaband หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Hahahha steve getting it from the banks. Lolol bought in 2021. Lolol...

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  หลายเดือนก่อน

      Go on

  • @b-rare
    @b-rare หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    They offered you 5.3 same with me and then I negotiated to 5.2% within a second lol. But I’m not going to do week long processes like you did. Going from 5.2 to 4.9 is what 30 bucks a month .

  • @ethimself5064
    @ethimself5064 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Just refinanced with a 1 year fixed over 30 years/80%+ equity. High rate but worth it/reduced my mtg by 40%. Can't wait till a 5 year fixed is 4% or less.

  • @arvindgupta1220
    @arvindgupta1220 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Ben's enthusiast projection about population growth dropping to 0.6% seems naive. Looks like he has not thought through the numbers. Consider following....
    Current population of Canada is roughly 41 million
    Current population of Non-Permanent residents in Canada is about 2.6 million
    If the population of Non-Permanent residents needs to drop by 600,000 in three years then it needs to drop by 200,000 each year 2024, 2025 and 2026.
    That implies that Canada needs to ask 200,000 non-permanent resident living in Canada to leave the country. ON TOP OF THAT we need to have ZERO non-permanent residents coming into Canada.
    How is that possible when Miller has already announced that 360,000 study permits will be issued in 2024 and 2025 each? On top of the study permits, new work permits will also be issued in 2024 and 2025.
    If Canada issues 360,000 study permits in 2024 and lets assume another 300,000 work permits in 2024 then the total non-permanent residents intake in 2024 will be about 660,000. Then to achieve net reduction of 200,000 non-permanent residents in 2024, we will need to ask 860,000 non-permanent residents to leave Canada in 2024!!
    Can Canada ask 860,000 non-permanent residents currently living in Canada on study permits and work permits to leave Canada in 2024? If it can, it would be a good thing in my opinion for Canada. But that is another topic for a separate discussion.

  • @edubmf
    @edubmf หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    God Rabidioux - who is going to buy Canadian debt at a lower rate than the Fed rate.

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Canadians

    • @edubmf
      @edubmf หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@meddlehedd1194 Freeland was talking about forcing pension companies to buy more underperforming Canadian stock.
      This would basically amount to capital controls.

    • @meddlehedd1194
      @meddlehedd1194 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@edubmf that's coming i would bet....it used to be that way in our RRSP's so a move back to that is not a stretch. They will also demand that canadian pension funds hold an increasing amount of canadian bonds. that's what I meant above when I said canadians will but the govt debt

  • @Picklemedia
    @Picklemedia หลายเดือนก่อน

    24:36 "overwhelmingly renters"

    • @Picklemedia
      @Picklemedia หลายเดือนก่อน

      45:15 "Supply Supply Supply" Peak irony

  • @heathmckenzie6875
    @heathmckenzie6875 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    First!

  • @itown4ever
    @itown4ever หลายเดือนก่อน

    Ben has a second-hand understanding about how immigration works in canada.

  • @thanks4that261
    @thanks4that261 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Complaining that real estate in one of the best places on earth is too expensive is like complaining that a Ferrari is too expensive. Things that are premium come at a premium price. I cant afford a Ferrari so I drive a Kia, if i couldn't buy in beautiful Vancouver then I'd just buy where i could afford, like the other 90% of the country which is affordable. Anyone who doesn't use that logic is just being silly.

    • @donm2067
      @donm2067 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      Hi my name is Don, I'm based in reality.
      MLS is a wonderful tool, you can go ahead use it to see 90% of Canada is completely unaffordable.

    • @thanks4that261
      @thanks4that261 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ​@@donm2067Anywhere outside BC and Ontario is completely affordable. Your reality is very sad if you think differently. Even most of BC and Ontario is affordable outside of most desirable areas. Supply and demand is a simple thing. Most people want to live in the nicest places, prices go up. If you can't afford a Ferrari then buy a kia, don't blame Ferrari.

    • @donm2067
      @donm2067 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@thanks4that261 jump on MLS and take a look. You know we're in trouble when Shelburne Ont is a million dollar town.
      I don't think you comprehend how society works, everyone needs housing.
      Right now only the top 10% of people can afford a home.

    • @donm2067
      @donm2067 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@thanks4that261 ok my reply was shadow banned, but here it goes for round 2.
      When Shelburne Ont is a million dollar town, we have definitely made a huge mess.
      Only 10% of society can afford a house right now.
      Where should the other 90% live? Past Edmonton?

    • @SzymonStas
      @SzymonStas หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      I think for a young single guy it might work to move somewhere else. Trying to start a family without the support of your friends and family is rough.
      Also I wouldn’t consider Vancouver to be a Ferrari. There’s human poo all over the streets, homeless people, addicts and theft is rampant. Still it’s $1000/sqft minimum for apartments downtown. It’s not so much that demand is incredible for homes here, it’s just that public policy has destroyed supply. Developer get taxed to death here. Same story in every city with R1 zoning. Detached homes don’t pay enough property tax to justify what the city spends on infrastructure to support those homes. It’s bankrupting all of our cities all across North America.

  • @brasssnacks8413
    @brasssnacks8413 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Are people opposed to oil because they think oil isn't useful? Also we all know that oil is in everything, but saying that's a sign of hypocrisy gives real "you have problems with society yet you LIVE in a society" vibes. You guys are strawmanning and you're better than that. Fact is oil is cheap because it's not priced correctly since its production and use don't price in the consequences of its production and use. Like, me dumping my trash in a river is useful and cost effective so long as I'm not on the hook for the lost of economic output from that river nor the costs incurred in its cleanup. Sorry, guys, but that's jumping off on a really weird take.

    • @Aubatron
      @Aubatron หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Honestly I think the average person thinks things are made using oil, but they don’t realize how many products actually contain oil, but they just know it is bad for the environment and that’s all they know, so they are opposed to oil. People also don’t have any education on energy. Canada’s options are to stay on fossil fuels, dam up every single river for hydroelectric, or put modular nuclear power plants everywhere. Most Transportation of raw material and goods needs fossil fuels, there is no alternative. Everything is just based on political narratives and lack of education.

    • @Rawdiswar
      @Rawdiswar หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      "We all know that oil is in everything..."
      Not even close to the truth. Your average Canadian thinks food comes from grocery stores and electricity grows on trees.

    • @funkspinna
      @funkspinna หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Poor analogy. oil is the useful product. Trash is not.

    • @Picklemedia
      @Picklemedia หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I also complain about oil on my smartphone

    • @wesleylawrence6439
      @wesleylawrence6439 หลายเดือนก่อน

      You throw trash in a river , you create a job for someone yo clean it. You save money, they make money lol

  • @shelterskelter
    @shelterskelter หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Nova Scotia basically looking like New Dehli with Old Rich Ontarians to service.....