On the Rate of Technological Advancement

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ธ.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 6

  • @clixsyt
    @clixsyt 14 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    If technology is the application of integrated knowledge, you could argue the underlying integration process is still exponential because it is compounding. AI could be argued is just an automation of that integration process.

    • @TheFictionMethod
      @TheFictionMethod  14 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Yes, you can make that argument, and I will agree with it, even if my following comment does not read like that. My point is to separate it to specific technologies, or the specific application of that knowledge. The sum is exponential, but the parts are S-curves is my hypothesis.

  • @benjaminspiegel2467
    @benjaminspiegel2467 14 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    I think this is a reasonable theory, but as you show in the graphical example, the chain of S curves clearly shows linear progress over time and not exponential. Way around this would be to suggest that more advanced technologies are adopted at an increasing rate. This would be equivalent to plotting S curves, shorter and shorter distances to the right as time goes on, which would amount to an exponential rate. You then have to make the argument that orders of magnitude better technologies are adopted at an ever increasing rate.

    • @TheFictionMethod
      @TheFictionMethod  14 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I like your suggestion, a lot. The graphical example was just for illustrative purposes, but your suggestion of the rate of technological adoption makes a lot of sense. The older technologies are used to develop the newer ones, so as development advances and the population of users and developers grows, so too should the adoption of new technologies.

  • @ronaldgarrison8478
    @ronaldgarrison8478 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Four minutes in, I still have no idea where this is going. I'm done here.

    • @TheFictionMethod
      @TheFictionMethod  14 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Thank you for those four minutes. Hopefully there will be another video in the future more to your liking.