Great video...it gets me thinking, is it possible to look at historical odds and identify scenarios where the books tend to tweak the odds to sacrifice accuracy for balance? For instance, popular teams getting -6 instead of -4 or something like that. Feels like there'd be a profitable strategy there.
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Yes, they want 50% of the money on both sides of spreads (-110) that are considered 50% probabilities. However that is not the case on money lines. The sportsbooks goal on the money line is to approximately get the proportion of the given odds. For example at -300 (75%) they want to receive approximately 75% of all the money risked on the favorite. This is how they attempt to balance and make the vig with no risk to them. But yes for example’s sake, it’s 50-50 on spreads and that % continues to go higher as the money line price increases.
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Makes sense appreciate the info!
Great video...it gets me thinking, is it possible to look at historical odds and identify scenarios where the books tend to tweak the odds to sacrifice accuracy for balance? For instance, popular teams getting -6 instead of -4 or something like that. Feels like there'd be a profitable strategy there.
Thanks For The Comment!
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Great info 💯💪🏾
Yes, they want 50% of the money on both sides of spreads (-110) that are considered 50% probabilities. However that is not the case on money lines. The sportsbooks goal on the money line is to approximately get the proportion of the given odds. For example at -300 (75%) they want to receive approximately 75% of all the money risked on the favorite. This is how they attempt to balance and make the vig with no risk to them. But yes for example’s sake, it’s 50-50 on spreads and that % continues to go higher as the money line price increases.
yes, good point on moneylines. they want the payout to be equal there
Matt I know you like preaction. Do you take live wagers and hows your approach?
very rarely, but when I do i just check the live positive EV page when a game is at the end of a quarter and half
I like Matt he is a Sixers fan
To my detriment, but thank you!
Great video!
Thank you!