Love this interview. I like that he took a stand against books kicking people out. Books kicking out winners is such BS imo. It's really anti-masculine too; they beat you at your game so you kick them out? Please We can't do exchanges in the US because of the interstate law. Hopefully that gets scrapped.
Before I even get into this video too far I’ll tell you how they come up with their numbers. They take each teams “points for” and “points against”, add them up, divide them by games played then split it down the middle of Team A pts for vs Team B pts against and Vice Versa. Then factor in home field advantage and key injuries. It’s not hard.
@@cjbay26 if you say so. I tested it for a few weeks a few years ago. I usually bet four games on Saturday and four on Sunday. I ran the numbers using this system and was within a point and a half every time.
@DAMUSH it’s hard for me to explain without writing it down. Say you got Steelers vs Baltimore. Steelers average scoring 25.5 pts and give up an average of 19. Ravens average 31 and give up 25. With Pittsburgh averaging 25 and Ravens give up 25 you assume Pitt will score 25. With Baltimore averaging 31 and Pittsburgh giving up 19 you assume Baltimore will score 25 as well. So this game will be either a pick em or depending on home field advantage or key injuries it may be the home team favored by 1.5 to 2.5 pts. Make sense? This is hypothetical… I’m not sure what these teams are averaging this year
I just ran the numbers in the Texans game this week and came up with panthers -5.5. Factor in Watson is out, amendola is out. I look for Carolina to cover the 9 that Vegas has it at now
Thanks for the content. I'm curious about how live-betting works from the perspective of A bookmaker - all the basics ofc but also how much control each book has on keeping lines open or adjusting lines compared to another book. Do bookies ever target one particular bettor and open/close lines for them while leaving lines open for others. Do they use information gained thru a bet to then makea decision whether to adjust the line or not before accepting the bet? Just something I wonder about
Information is being used in real time to make decision yes. It's an information game. Most books do the opposite of this guy. This guy will cater to some "originators" (pros), while most books limit them and cater to VIPs (losers).
When it comes to live betting, the information is so rapid and every move, bet or info gained, can be worthless 30 seconds later. There is definitely 'pro' players, we will slide the market towards if they are hitting the same side over a period of time. But those same players can quickly flip sides, and that's how you know they are a true pro for the most part.. I myself, had many years where I just wouldn't or couldn't get myself to switch a position during a match. However, over time, every bet should be based on the situation at any given moment, not your overall position based on all your bets. Even 'cashing out' which you should never hit that button, you should always try and just bet or hedge the position naturally than hit that button.. Obviously sometime people don't have the funds to play other side, and again, it's understanding your situation and the game situation plus the odds at that moment in time. If you just react based on your data or your instinct, and whether you look back and you did it right or wrong, it's not a failure. As you will just get better with 1000's of those moments and your read and instinct will evolve. I was more a psychological, information and instinctual punter than data driven when 1st started. Numbers are a lot sharper these days, but there is still a lot of moments in betting, and some sports, that data cannot be the best driver of decisions. Trusting yourself and your tools is the key, on both sides of the counter. Bets are also, or should be just accepted in real time. long delays or needing to authorize live bets, is just wrong imo. Then it's on the house to react to the bet, not during the placing of it. Of course some scenarios when it's an obvious bad line or technical error, but again, accept it, and deal with it as fast as possible within your house rules.
Most of the ppp (pay per player) sites give you the ability to move lines very easily. At the end of the day, you move the line to attract action to the other side. More often than not, youre gambling yourself on games that arent even (which also rarely happens). The ppp sites just work as an accounting system basically and the rest is all dealt with in Benjis
The bookies and line makers know the vast majority of ppl are betting the favorite to win, and the Over. If u were to compare all the pre-game odds to the results of games, almost all of them would show that betting the spread on the underdogs and the under would’ve been far more profitable
They make book on all situations. Then they change that number according to where the money's going. They work off a vigorish. I worked for a casino in Vegas that started the very first casino sports book. It was a Howard Hughes operation.
@@chartmaster8729 lol....not sure what to tell you bud. You must be a terrible sports gambler if hitting a 12 team Super Teaser is too hard for you. Even bad gamblers should get 8 or 9 out of 12 on a super teaser. I get the feeling you're not from Vegas and have no clue about parlay cards.... I hit a 15 team super teaser last year....my record....
@@chartmaster8729 When I get home, I'll list my 12 teams this week. Although I'm due to lose. Seahawks +9.5 at Vikings scares me. I think Vikings could cover 9.5 this week at home
Georgia doesn't have legal regulated sportsbooks yet. It's been floated through legislature a couple times but has not passed. You can bet offshore, but that's often buyer beware.
This guy is talking about something that will never happen in the U.S. The way the U.S. is going with legal sports-betting, bettors will have no protection and books will be able to steal all the money from bettors. No politician is going to say that winning bettors need to be protected when most people are losers. With Artificial Intelligence it's easy for a book to quickly identify and then severely limit or ban anyone who can win - most bettors have no clue how to win at sports-betting and, of course, those people are the only customers the books want and now with technology it's easy for the bookmakers to do that. I'm just a guy who has been shutdown by many bookmakers.
This is nothing new...there many before adam..and more after him...shape or not..house isnt I bussiness..to lose money...30 yearsago u bet to beat the number....now pro sports play to the number..
WOw very complicated how they do it in vegas but wow they often make huge mistakes My simple way math is done by using points for and against lets look at this say cowboys are home vs the horrible texans cowboys scored 250 and gave up only 120 so they are +130 [oints now divide that by games played lets say 8 games cowboys are +16.25 ppg round down to + 16 texans are horrible they scored 95 points but gave up 280 so they are -185 points divide by 8 = - 23 points per game ok now when you negative number vs a pos number you add them together to get differnce between 2 points on a 0 line scale 23 +16 = 39 loooks like this Cowboys + 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Texans -23 OK now we add spread in Cowboys -11 subtract from 16 you have 5 teaxns +11 they are -12 which goes to cowboys tin by 12 or more points yes sometimes teams are in a trap game like say cowboys have to conf rival up next Packers they are going to play soft vs bad team and might win by 3 points i have another system i use ATS charts on 5 point scale and a 100% happened eagles vs Giants eagles last 3 games - 25 ats - 19 - ats and up to - 8 ats Giants going other way +18 ats +12 ats then +7 ats as a DOG winner this 2 teams headed in opposite directions and i hammered egales higher point spreads for + money - 11 - 17 - 21- all 20$ each won me $250
![[UNCUT] “อภิสิทธิ์” ครม.อุ๊งอิ๊ง แย่งเก้าอี้กันฝุ่นตลบ “ทักษิณ” บงการเอง Iคนดังนั่งเคลียร์I 21ส.ค.67](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/a_b-kItw2jY/mqdefault.jpg)
Love this interview. I like that he took a stand against books kicking people out. Books kicking out winners is such BS imo. It's really anti-masculine too; they beat you at your game so you kick them out? Please
We can't do exchanges in the US because of the interstate law. Hopefully that gets scrapped.
It’s not bs why would they want people that screw up their business
Such a underrated TH-cam channel. I really appreciate all of this great content
I appreciate that!
Great video piece here Jack. Adam is one of a small handful of true masters in the industry.
Thanks Ray!
If you want to win on nba game.holla at me
@@floydmclean9944 I've been in this business longer than you can imagine. I'd hang myself if i needed help from a you tube begger.
Really happy I've stumbled upon this channel. Really excited to go through your other videos.
Big fan of this content! Keep up the good work Captain! 👍🏻👍🏻
Thanks, more in the pipeline!
@Samir rai the 2nd 3rd and forth guy..you wont know his name...the biggest betters in the world dont advertise...because it dosnt benefit them
Bruh your intro is pristine. Good Job. 👍
Before I even get into this video too far I’ll tell you how they come up with their numbers. They take each teams “points for” and “points against”, add them up, divide them by games played then split it down the middle of Team A pts for vs Team B pts against and Vice Versa. Then factor in home field advantage and key injuries. It’s not hard.
lol...its a little more complicated than that. Good try though
@@cjbay26 if you say so. I tested it for a few weeks a few years ago. I usually bet four games on Saturday and four on Sunday. I ran the numbers using this system and was within a point and a half every time.
@Lucianodadon tell “Michael Jordan” that. It’s not rocket science.
@DAMUSH it’s hard for me to explain without writing it down. Say you got Steelers vs Baltimore. Steelers average scoring 25.5 pts and give up an average of 19. Ravens average 31 and give up 25. With Pittsburgh averaging 25 and Ravens give up 25 you assume Pitt will score 25. With Baltimore averaging 31 and Pittsburgh giving up 19 you assume Baltimore will score 25 as well. So this game will be either a pick em or depending on home field advantage or key injuries it may be the home team favored by 1.5 to 2.5 pts. Make sense? This is hypothetical… I’m not sure what these teams are averaging this year
I just ran the numbers in the Texans game this week and came up with panthers -5.5. Factor in Watson is out, amendola is out. I look for Carolina to cover the 9 that Vegas has it at now
Thanks Adam & Jack, really well done, informative 😊
Glad you enjoyed it!
Thanks for the content. I'm curious about how live-betting works from the perspective of A bookmaker - all the basics ofc but also how much control each book has on keeping lines open or adjusting lines compared to another book. Do bookies ever target one particular bettor and open/close lines for them while leaving lines open for others. Do they use information gained thru a bet to then makea decision whether to adjust the line or not before accepting the bet? Just something I wonder about
Great suggestion. If I ever have Adam on again (maybe a livestream perhaps?) I'll be sure to ask him that.
Information is being used in real time to make decision yes. It's an information game. Most books do the opposite of this guy. This guy will cater to some "originators" (pros), while most books limit them and cater to VIPs (losers).
When it comes to live betting, the information is so rapid and every move, bet or info gained, can be worthless 30 seconds later. There is definitely 'pro' players, we will slide the market towards if they are hitting the same side over a period of time. But those same players can quickly flip sides, and that's how you know they are a true pro for the most part.. I myself, had many years where I just wouldn't or couldn't get myself to switch a position during a match. However, over time, every bet should be based on the situation at any given moment, not your overall position based on all your bets. Even 'cashing out' which you should never hit that button, you should always try and just bet or hedge the position naturally than hit that button.. Obviously sometime people don't have the funds to play other side, and again, it's understanding your situation and the game situation plus the odds at that moment in time. If you just react based on your data or your instinct, and whether you look back and you did it right or wrong, it's not a failure. As you will just get better with 1000's of those moments and your read and instinct will evolve.
I was more a psychological, information and instinctual punter than data driven when 1st started. Numbers are a lot sharper these days, but there is still a lot of moments in betting, and some sports, that data cannot be the best driver of decisions. Trusting yourself and your tools is the key, on both sides of the counter.
Bets are also, or should be just accepted in real time. long delays or needing to authorize live bets, is just wrong imo. Then it's on the house to react to the bet, not during the placing of it. Of course some scenarios when it's an obvious bad line or technical error, but again, accept it, and deal with it as fast as possible within your house rules.
Most of the ppp (pay per player) sites give you the ability to move lines very easily. At the end of the day, you move the line to attract action to the other side. More often than not, youre gambling yourself on games that arent even (which also rarely happens). The ppp sites just work as an accounting system basically and the rest is all dealt with in Benjis
The bookies and line makers know the vast majority of ppl are betting the favorite to win, and the Over. If u were to compare all the pre-game odds to the results of games, almost all of them would show that betting the spread on the underdogs and the under would’ve been far more profitable
If this was true everyone would just bet the underdog and make a ton of money. Try it, it won't work.
I once knew a fellow who
won $60,000 on sports betting
and instead of celebrating his win
he walked to the edge of the sea
and threw the money in.
Ol chunk O coal that one
Did he feel like he was in a movie
I keep telling folks never bet on football because the ball ain't round! You want to bet on a game with a round ball.
@@thehoror01 so basketball 🏀 where refs have literally been caught fixing games is better than 🏈 LMAO
All sports are fixed rigged
That link to part one doesn't work. Gladly it's the first video in the related vids under this one for me. Appreciate the info.
They make book on all situations. Then they change that number according to where the money's going. They work off a vigorish. I worked for a casino in Vegas that started the very first casino sports book. It was a Howard Hughes operation.
Funny how little they mentioned how the public loves to bet certain teams which inflates the lines of their games
Wow eye opening. How can I get hooked up with weekly picks information?
Sign me up
Although I did super teaser cards, week 1 I hit a 13 team parlay, week 2 I hit a 12 team parlay. See if my luck runs out this week.
Hahahahah lies
@@chartmaster8729 Lies?? Lol.... I hit back to back...you must not know what a Super teaser is.... you act like they're hard to hit.....dummy
@@charlieharper8477 Lies
@@chartmaster8729 lol....not sure what to tell you bud. You must be a terrible sports gambler if hitting a 12 team Super Teaser is too hard for you. Even bad gamblers should get 8 or 9 out of 12 on a super teaser. I get the feeling you're not from Vegas and have no clue about parlay cards.... I hit a 15 team super teaser last year....my record....
@@chartmaster8729 When I get home, I'll list my 12 teams this week. Although I'm due to lose. Seahawks +9.5 at Vikings scares me. I think Vikings could cover 9.5 this week at home
That marker noise or whatever it is, completely takes away from the information in the video. Can’t figure out why it’s necessary…
Two for the Money!
Very nice content. Hug from Portugal.
Great info captain Jack
Awesome Stuff!!!
Did yaw know that Adam Bjron is Gerald Butler's half brother
Gerald Butter
Dutching only thing not talked about good stuff thanks
Who was the second guy after Billy Walters?
Rufus Peabody. He appeared on a livestream back in February for Super Bowl Props.
th-cam.com/video/ReJUXOEFvpk/w-d-xo.html
@@CaptainJackAndrews thanks
We neeeed MOOOOOOREEEE CAPTAIN!
More coming soon!
How can I bet online from georgia
Georgia doesn't have legal regulated sportsbooks yet. It's been floated through legislature a couple times but has not passed. You can bet offshore, but that's often buyer beware.
Nice info!
This guy is talking about something that will never happen in the U.S. The way the U.S. is going with legal sports-betting, bettors will have no protection and books will be able to steal all the money from bettors. No politician is going to say that winning bettors need to be protected when most people are losers. With Artificial Intelligence it's easy for a book to quickly identify and then severely limit or ban anyone who can win - most bettors have no clue how to win at sports-betting and, of course, those people are the only customers the books want and now with technology it's easy for the bookmakers to do that. I'm just a guy who has been shutdown by many bookmakers.
@Blia Yang bcuz he’s full of it
Very good! Thanks
Good public NFL model I can use this season? What do you think of fivethirtyeight?
I don't think any public NFL model is going to be profitable. You can browse different power ratings systems at Unabated.com in the Simulator section.
excellent content
Glad you think so!
@@CaptainJackAndrews q
This is nothing new...there many before adam..and more after him...shape or not..house isnt I bussiness..to lose money...30 yearsago u bet to beat the number....now pro sports play to the number..
Now pro sports play to that number. That's a very key statement.
Why do they keep saying European model ... its the UK model ffs
Looks like Russel Crowe
그래서 내일 샌디 샌프 누가이기나요?
I need a bookie
HEY CAPTAIN JACK WHAT IS THE FOOTBALL HOT PICK THIS WEEK???
Texas A&m -6
@@lewesleyacklin1408 I’m just gonna go against Jacksonville jaguars 😆👍
Your best bet always will be your bad bet. If you win with it you make less money.
Bet With Your Head Not Over it!!!
This dude might be overqualified to setting sportlines. He thinks like an 8 figure hedge fund manager.
I suck at sports betting.
I need a bookie !
hmu
Put ur money in a bank. The hell with sports betting
@@kmmkmm7499 You trust banks.... smh.
@@rickislas5039 you got one?
@@YoungFortinbras everybody has one but nobody says it. It’s more hush hush
So if someone takes the Eagles this weekend......
I really don't know what these guys are talking about.
too wise
Won't help me win one bet
finally!
fucking wise
WOw very complicated how they do it in vegas but wow they often make huge mistakes
My simple way math is done by using points for and against lets look at this say cowboys are home vs the horrible texans
cowboys scored 250 and gave up only 120 so they are +130 [oints now divide that by games played lets say 8 games
cowboys are +16.25 ppg round down to + 16 texans are horrible they scored 95 points but gave up 280 so they are -185 points divide by 8 = - 23 points per game ok now when you negative number vs a pos number you add them together to get differnce between 2 points on a 0 line scale 23 +16 = 39 loooks like this Cowboys + 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Texans -23
OK now we add spread in Cowboys -11 subtract from 16 you have 5 teaxns +11 they are -12 which goes to cowboys tin by 12 or more points yes sometimes teams are in a trap game like say cowboys have to conf rival up next Packers they are going to play soft vs bad team and might win by 3 points i have another system i use ATS charts on 5 point scale
and a 100% happened eagles vs Giants eagles last 3 games - 25 ats - 19 - ats and up to - 8 ats Giants going other way +18 ats +12 ats then +7 ats as a DOG winner this 2 teams headed in opposite directions and i hammered egales higher point spreads for + money - 11 - 17 - 21- all 20$ each won me $250
That last part confused me what made you hammer the eagles ?