Admittedly I may be a bit biased, but excellent video! I especially appreciate the mention of confirmation bias at the start. So many misconceptions in this game (and in life) can be traced back to confirmation bias.
Thank you! I'm happy that my interpretation of your (and others) work stood up. With the analysis all buried on the dead Silph Road and a Twitter post I felt like not enough people had heard about it. I agree - people are far too prone to jump to conclusions with uncareful evidence.
@@TheExcellentPokedex I’m not sure if you noticed but that same dataset was also used to determine the crit rate is 1%. I kick myself for not also using the dataset to discover the “perfect throw” mechanic. It was sitting right in front of my face but I didn’t examine that parameter space.
@@wisbilt1650 I agree man. Since when did it become acceptable to prioritize making as MUCH money as possible over appeasing the fanbase and giving them things to be excited about & look forward to? And why are they so blatantly obvious and unrelenting about it? Im aware its partially because they know a certain % of players will spend copious amounts of $$$ on the game regardless of what they do, but don't they realize they could make even more money by appealing to larger masses by NOT using practices that pressure every move you make into spending money to get marginally further? I know countless people who've tried to get into Pokemon through Pokemon Go but ended up dropping it because they were full on Inventory or Pokemon storage, not realizing they're being pressured for that extra 50 space to spend money unless they want to spend days waiting for it. Some people are just NOT accustomed to spending money on a mobile game, and if we're being real here, you HAVE to spend money on this game to take full advantage of what it has to offer. People play free-to-play, but it genuinely isnt the same. This is one of the stingiest and downright soulless gaming companies I've ever had the displeasure of interacting with over a game that I love.
It's funny - I almost didn't include the "it doesn't do anything" part in the video, but the Silph Road analysis had this afterthought of a chart at the bottom of it that actually quantified that question. I'm glad, because there's so much speculation out there around this.
It used to, thats how I caught mine and a bunch of people I know caught theirs, pretty sure they fixed it once too many people starting catching the birds
I couldn't believe that this information wasn't everywhere already. I had to dig to find it, and there are so many rumours around. Even most raid catch calculators don't seem to have the right information.
Dude i also think this channel is a hidden gem you will grow so much you are like one of the few people i listen when i play pogo! Love how you prove everything with numbers
I aim to only talk about things where I can provide some analysis beyond what is normally talked about. I'm glad that this kind of thing has an audience!
Omg finally somebody answered this question ever since i saw that video of the waste your balls trick to increase your catch rate ive been trying to find someone to answer this question but all the other sources where old and outdated, thanks for making this, and your excellent catching videos are the best simce it has helped me improve my throwing skills.❤
I want to give as much credit as I can to the people who actually discovered this! The kind of scale of data collection needed for this analysis is beyond the scope of what I can do myself.
Excellent analysis. I knew about the improving chances on premier balls, and have heard folks saying that the same mechanic applies to regular encounters(just with the risk of the pokemon fleeing if it goes in the ball) and hence to toss away balls deliberately for Galarian birds in an attempt to emulate that. I've even thrown away a handful of pokeballs and great balls before trying to catch them too. Thus far, to no success! Will discontinue that thanks to this video.
yeah, to be totally honest I wasn't sure if it was true or not until I saw the chart in the Silph Road study. It's been out for 3 years now and I hadn't actually seen the source until recently. Doesn't help that the site is down now!
The increased catch rate of Premier Balls is consistent with my experience when catching Shadow Pokémon from Rocket teams. However, I wonder if the boost correlates with effective throws (even if the catch fails) or all throws (including those where the ball doesn’t hit the target and is wasted). Either way, the best practice would be to use the circle lock technique and avoid wasting any available balls.
amazing video and very interesting stuff. well put. i have a personal superstition that in regular encounters initial excellent throws are less likely to catch than following excellent throws and that they increase the likelihood of following catches excellent or not. it happens so often every day that I hit an excellent throw on a yellow circle, the Pokemon comes out and the next throw I miss completely but catch it anyway. it happens so often I'm convinced there is a relation probably just bias - I forget the name of it, but alas
I’m finally getting to the point of throwing excellent throws fairly consistently depending on the Pokemon as I have great throws down to a 70%-90% throw rate, and you really get it down after some time, but I also think it depends on which device you’re using as I know you’ve stated before. I plan on getting an iPad since it’s physically bigger and hence will give me more actual room to throw the balls which I’m very sure will improve my excellent throw rate even more. It’s so fun getting excellent throws and the XP that comes with it. I get excited every single time I do it and it!
Great video! I really like these where you actually calculate the exact chance. I knew this trick existed but there was literally no evidence and it always could have beed just luck
The dedication! Hope you make a video on how to get excellent throw on galarian birds too. Since shinies just got released, I am sure people will start looking for an excellent throw guide.
@@TheExcellentPokedex That was equally helpful! I guess since the question of throwing balls away to increase odds against G. Birds was brought up, I thought there would be an answer. But I guess success is anecdotal and, as you said, confirmation bias at best. Not sure if data on the matter could be collected without taking a lot of time or being organized between multiple players.
Platinum medal gives 1.4x multiplier (that's what "+4 bonus" actually means). I included it in my example calculation. Is there somewhere else I should have mentioned it?
Spoofers wait 2 hours before catching pokemon they teleport to to remove cooldown so if you want to wait 2 hours on a legendary bird to try and increase your catch rate that be better than wasting balls the ball wasting increases the time you are on the catch screen which is what would be doing it not wasting the balls themselves.
Yes they do, Nice is between 1x and 1.3x bonus, Great is 1.3x to 1.7x, and Excellent is 1.7x to 1.9x bonus. It depends on how large the colored circle is when you hit it. This video has much more information as part of its background: th-cam.com/video/w_ad7lPBkQw/w-d-xo.html
Just came across this. Excellent video. Your example stopped at 15 balls. Stupid question - does the multiplier stop if you miss your throw? And also does the multiplier increase even more at 20 balls? Or 21? Or does it cap at 15? Just asking, for science and stuff. TIA!
For the Silph Road analysis they've included 95% confidence intervals which I think answers the question. I don't know for the 1.05x per throw analysis because I don't have the details of the data.
Anecdotally, during Niantics adjustments of 2024 it seems they increased slightly the catch rate of the first one or two throws. I’ve not come across similar statistical analysis though, or spent the time tracking it myself. Has anyone else had similar observances?
Interesting. I always thought this was the case but never knew there was research into it. I am curious, though. Does it matter if the ball hits the pokemon? If you miss a throw, does your catch chance still increase on the next ball?
It's same with getting legendary shiny all rng the rumor was spread as click bait but you getting the legendary birds to spawn in the first place is what made it possible not wasting balls.
I think this was well know for about a year or more, but the calculations werent so precise, trainertips had already meantioned this and I heard it sometime before that some hardcores were wasting like the 10/15 balls and tying to catch only the Last ones to speed the process in between raids
Nice video. I have a question, I´ve heard that making an excellent throw with the 1° ball (in legendary raids at least) increases your chances to catch in the final ball. Is that true?
I have tried the wasting ball method 3 times on galarian birds. I caught the bird the first time I tried it. The next 2 wasting attempts failed and the bird ran.
I mean honestly there isn't really a cost to doing it since who cares about a few wasted balls, even if maybe it doesn't do anything. The evidence equally shows that it doesn't hurt.
My experience was similar to the other commenter. I used throwing away balls for both my daughter's and my own accounts. We caught the first one but it didn't work again. I had assumed that it did work but Niantic nerfed it once they became aware of it.@@TheExcellentPokedex
@@TheExcellentPokedex the wasting ball has nothing to do with it spoofers shown that waiting on the catch screen itself is what makes the difference but for to wait like 2 hours for the boosted odds because it removes cooldown so pretty much not catch anything from the daily incense until you get a legendary bird to spawn for boosted catch rate lol.
That's what the average of the graph looks like but the error bars are massive and include "it doesn't change at all" near the center, so I think it's pretty reasonable to think that the chance doesn't change at all.
Ok oddly enough it has happened to me on moltres. I caught it with 1 actual ball hit. I did miss 4 times tho on accident because it kept moving. But the 1 ball that hit it caught it. I have 2 moltres now.
What I have seen is quite the opposite. If you miss and throw away balls, you have a lower chance than if you are consistently hitting it with excellent throws.
Main reason i see people fail is because they rush catching or other people around thing distracting them making catching harder raid with friends for the bonus balls and damage can even party up for party power means beat raid boss faster so get more bonus balls from beating it quick
to debunk this you would have to run an experiment where you throw away balls on a gbird and the control where you do a regular catch attempt and compare results over a span of at least 10 encounters of similar level gbirds this video is literally useless although its obvious this got nerfed I did the trick and it worked so whatever this is a moot point because its a trick that doesn't exist but it did work for a while
wtf you didn't debunk anything lmao such a long video without actual research on encounters with the gbirds you go to a conclusion based on premier ball data not with regular balls it worked for a while pretty sure it got nerfed because yknow anything that helps players gets tweaked
![Chris Langan - The Interview THEY Didn't Want You To See - CTMU [Full Version; Timestamps]](/img/n.gif)
Admittedly I may be a bit biased, but excellent video! I especially appreciate the mention of confirmation bias at the start. So many misconceptions in this game (and in life) can be traced back to confirmation bias.
Thank you! I'm happy that my interpretation of your (and others) work stood up. With the analysis all buried on the dead Silph Road and a Twitter post I felt like not enough people had heard about it.
I agree - people are far too prone to jump to conclusions with uncareful evidence.
@@TheExcellentPokedex Oh this video is way better than my series of tweets! I’m happy to see the information be conveyed in a more accessible form!
@@TheExcellentPokedex I’m not sure if you noticed but that same dataset was also used to determine the crit rate is 1%. I kick myself for not also using the dataset to discover the “perfect throw” mechanic.
It was sitting right in front of my face but I didn’t examine that parameter space.
This channel is a hidden gem. You're gonna catch on fast. Enjoy being small-time while you can, cus I'm sure it'll be gone sooner than you know it! ❤
I agree
Thank you! I appreciate the kind words, even if slightly ominous. XD
Would be true if niantic wasn't actively causing every member of his potential fan base to leave ( the game is fucking dying )
@@wisbilt1650 I always feel sad thinking about how much potential they’re wasting with PoGo
@@wisbilt1650 I agree man. Since when did it become acceptable to prioritize making as MUCH money as possible over appeasing the fanbase and giving them things to be excited about & look forward to? And why are they so blatantly obvious and unrelenting about it? Im aware its partially because they know a certain % of players will spend copious amounts of $$$ on the game regardless of what they do, but don't they realize they could make even more money by appealing to larger masses by NOT using practices that pressure every move you make into spending money to get marginally further?
I know countless people who've tried to get into Pokemon through Pokemon Go but ended up dropping it because they were full on Inventory or Pokemon storage, not realizing they're being pressured for that extra 50 space to spend money unless they want to spend days waiting for it.
Some people are just NOT accustomed to spending money on a mobile game, and if we're being real here, you HAVE to spend money on this game to take full advantage of what it has to offer. People play free-to-play, but it genuinely isnt the same. This is one of the stingiest and downright soulless gaming companies I've ever had the displeasure of interacting with over a game that I love.
I love this! Finally some science pogo channel! Keep it up.
Thx for the clarification. I haven't tried throwing away balls, but it's nice to know it doesn't effect anything.
It's funny - I almost didn't include the "it doesn't do anything" part in the video, but the Silph Road analysis had this afterthought of a chart at the bottom of it that actually quantified that question. I'm glad, because there's so much speculation out there around this.
It used to, thats how I caught mine and a bunch of people I know caught theirs, pretty sure they fixed it once too many people starting catching the birds
@@AtomSplittingScience It never worked. The Galarian birds were released after Silph Road collected their original data.
Thank you so much for making this useful information (even more) public!
I couldn't believe that this information wasn't everywhere already. I had to dig to find it, and there are so many rumours around. Even most raid catch calculators don't seem to have the right information.
"...any magic incantation..." 😂🤣 This channel is gold! This topic was totally new to me. Thanks so much!!
I'm glad you liked that line. :p
Dude i also think this channel is a hidden gem you will grow so much you are like one of the few people i listen when i play pogo! Love how you prove everything with numbers
I aim to only talk about things where I can provide some analysis beyond what is normally talked about. I'm glad that this kind of thing has an audience!
Omg finally somebody answered this question ever since i saw that video of the waste your balls trick to increase your catch rate ive been trying to find someone to answer this question but all the other sources where old and outdated, thanks for making this, and your excellent catching videos are the best simce it has helped me improve my throwing skills.❤
Mind blowing!! Outstanding information.
Great info, and thanks for providing the links too!
I want to give as much credit as I can to the people who actually discovered this! The kind of scale of data collection needed for this analysis is beyond the scope of what I can do myself.
Excellent analysis. I knew about the improving chances on premier balls, and have heard folks saying that the same mechanic applies to regular encounters(just with the risk of the pokemon fleeing if it goes in the ball) and hence to toss away balls deliberately for Galarian birds in an attempt to emulate that. I've even thrown away a handful of pokeballs and great balls before trying to catch them too. Thus far, to no success! Will discontinue that thanks to this video.
yeah, to be totally honest I wasn't sure if it was true or not until I saw the chart in the Silph Road study. It's been out for 3 years now and I hadn't actually seen the source until recently. Doesn't help that the site is down now!
I appreciate that you cite your sources and link to them!
Never knew about this, also can’t wait for the shiny galarian birds catch video tomorrow :)
I wish!
the man makes a python for throwing balls, you know excel? hahaha amazing video man
I'm a programmer so Python is easier for me lol
Great stuff. Ty for the info
Amazing video! Very well researched, thanks for providing this information :D
Day 1 player and this was one of the few things about the game i didn't know. Thanks for the well presented info
The increased catch rate of Premier Balls is consistent with my experience when catching Shadow Pokémon from Rocket teams. However, I wonder if the boost correlates with effective throws (even if the catch fails) or all throws (including those where the ball doesn’t hit the target and is wasted). Either way, the best practice would be to use the circle lock technique and avoid wasting any available balls.
amazing video and very interesting stuff. well put.
i have a personal superstition that in regular encounters initial excellent throws are less likely to catch than following excellent throws and that they increase the likelihood of following catches excellent or not. it happens so often every day that I hit an excellent throw on a yellow circle, the Pokemon comes out and the next throw I miss completely but catch it anyway. it happens so often I'm convinced there is a relation
probably just bias - I forget the name of it, but alas
I’m finally getting to the point of throwing excellent throws fairly consistently depending on the Pokemon as I have great throws down to a 70%-90% throw rate, and you really get it down after some time, but I also think it depends on which device you’re using as I know you’ve stated before.
I plan on getting an iPad since it’s physically bigger and hence will give me more actual room to throw the balls which I’m very sure will improve my excellent throw rate even more. It’s so fun getting excellent throws and the XP that comes with it. I get excited every single time I do it and it!
This is quite useful to know tbh, great video!
Good to know that wasting balls isn't a viable option to increase catch rate.
Excellent video!
Great video!
This is fantastic. Thanking the algorithm for suggesting this
Great video! I really like these where you actually calculate the exact chance. I knew this trick existed but there was literally no evidence and it always could have beed just luck
This channel is soooooooo good. The production quality is high, and the math is easy to follow. Why don't you have 100x the subs and views??
The dedication! Hope you make a video on how to get excellent throw on galarian birds too. Since shinies just got released, I am sure people will start looking for an excellent throw guide.
Awesome thanks!!!!
That was an enjoyable and informatice watch. I thought it was going to segue into research done for Galarian Birds though
Maybe this video is helpful? th-cam.com/video/oUiErrVwZy8/w-d-xo.html
@@TheExcellentPokedex That was equally helpful! I guess since the question of throwing balls away to increase odds against G. Birds was brought up, I thought there would be an answer. But I guess success is anecdotal and, as you said, confirmation bias at best. Not sure if data on the matter could be collected without taking a lot of time or being organized between multiple players.
I knew it!!! Thanks 🙏
Always wondered why that last ball catch even if I flubbed an excellent and got a great throw felt like odds were boosted.
Worked for me today.
Nice! I mean, there isn't really that much cost to trying. It's not hard to get 20 Pokeballs to throw away. So why not try?
Best chanel out
What about the platnium metal +4 catch bonus?
Platinum medal gives 1.4x multiplier (that's what "+4 bonus" actually means). I included it in my example calculation. Is there somewhere else I should have mentioned it?
Spoofers wait 2 hours before catching pokemon they teleport to to remove cooldown so if you want to wait 2 hours on a legendary bird to try and increase your catch rate that be better than wasting balls the ball wasting increases the time you are on the catch screen which is what would be doing it not wasting the balls themselves.
had a stroke trying to read this
Do excellents or greats increase catch rate? Or just hitting the curve ball in general? I’m new to the game sorry if this is a dumb question
Yes, excellent & great throws increase your odds by approximately 1.85x and 1.5x. It’s a good question to ask.
Yes they do, Nice is between 1x and 1.3x bonus, Great is 1.3x to 1.7x, and Excellent is 1.7x to 1.9x bonus. It depends on how large the colored circle is when you hit it.
This video has much more information as part of its background: th-cam.com/video/w_ad7lPBkQw/w-d-xo.html
Just came across this. Excellent video. Your example stopped at 15 balls. Stupid question - does the multiplier stop if you miss your throw? And also does the multiplier increase even more at 20 balls? Or 21? Or does it cap at 15? Just asking, for science and stuff. TIA!
I almost believed the ball trick after I actually caught my first ever galarian bird after using the ball trick, but nah there was just no way.
Why the sad song at the end of the video?
Hi, what overlay app are you using to trace the outline of your throw?
what is the p value?
For the Silph Road analysis they've included 95% confidence intervals which I think answers the question. I don't know for the 1.05x per throw analysis because I don't have the details of the data.
The first time I tried this it worked !! It hasn't worked since.
Its funny how TheKruseShip started this whole trend of trying/debunking the ball trick myth
Anecdotally, during Niantics adjustments of 2024 it seems they increased slightly the catch rate of the first one or two throws. I’ve not come across similar statistical analysis though, or spent the time tracking it myself. Has anyone else had similar observances?
Cool!
Interesting. I always thought this was the case but never knew there was research into it. I am curious, though. Does it matter if the ball hits the pokemon? If you miss a throw, does your catch chance still increase on the next ball?
I've caught 4 Galarian birds with this method so I thought it must've had at least SOME truth to it. Interesting! Guess I just got lucky.
Hey I mean, keep doing it if it works. 😅
It's same with getting legendary shiny all rng the rumor was spread as click bait but you getting the legendary birds to spawn in the first place is what made it possible not wasting balls.
I think this was well know for about a year or more, but the calculations werent so precise, trainertips had already meantioned this and I heard it sometime before that some hardcores were wasting like the 10/15 balls and tying to catch only the Last ones to speed the process in between raids
Nice video. I have a question, I´ve heard that making an excellent throw with the 1° ball (in legendary raids at least) increases your chances to catch in the final ball. Is that true?
I have tried the wasting ball method 3 times on galarian birds. I caught the bird the first time I tried it. The next 2 wasting attempts failed and the bird ran.
I mean honestly there isn't really a cost to doing it since who cares about a few wasted balls, even if maybe it doesn't do anything. The evidence equally shows that it doesn't hurt.
My experience was similar to the other commenter. I used throwing away balls for both my daughter's and my own accounts. We caught the first one but it didn't work again. I had assumed that it did work but Niantic nerfed it once they became aware of it.@@TheExcellentPokedex
@@TheExcellentPokedex the wasting ball has nothing to do with it spoofers shown that waiting on the catch screen itself is what makes the difference but for to wait like 2 hours for the boosted odds because it removes cooldown so pretty much not catch anything from the daily incense until you get a legendary bird to spawn for boosted catch rate lol.
this channel is going to blow. Investing at 3.73k subs I expect to see 10k in 2 months and 50k by halfway through 2025
I wouldn’t say throwing away balls for regular encounters has no effect, it actually looks like it may go down.
That's what the average of the graph looks like but the error bars are massive and include "it doesn't change at all" near the center, so I think it's pretty reasonable to think that the chance doesn't change at all.
I plug a GameBoy into my phone and hold down + B, works half the time all the time :p
Irrelevant to me I’ve still never even encountered one of the birds. In fact today I used the incense for 2 hours straight and no bird
Ok oddly enough it has happened to me on moltres. I caught it with 1 actual ball hit. I did miss 4 times tho on accident because it kept moving. But the 1 ball that hit it caught it. I have 2 moltres now.
Well for Galarian Bird.... kinda not, i just throw 10 Ultra, get excellent throw, shake once.... broke and ran away
i did this with a zapdos and got it. but the next time i tried no luck
Tldr: im confused and just want to catch shiny pocket monster birds 😢
internet archive rip
What I have seen is quite the opposite. If you miss and throw away balls, you have a lower chance than if you are consistently hitting it with excellent throws.
imo excellent balls increase the chances of subsequent throws
K so why am I still failing the goddamn legends from raids it’s not fair
Main reason i see people fail is because they rush catching or other people around thing distracting them making catching harder raid with friends for the bonus balls and damage can even party up for party power means beat raid boss faster so get more bonus balls from beating it quick
I still lost my hundo Groudon.
to debunk this you would have to run an experiment where you throw away balls on a gbird and the control where you do a regular catch attempt and compare results over a span of at least 10 encounters of similar level gbirds this video is literally useless although its obvious this got nerfed I did the trick and it worked so whatever this is a moot point because its a trick that doesn't exist but it did work for a while
I've found that a regular throw right after an excellent throw is often more effective than the excellent throw itself
wtf you didn't debunk anything lmao such a long video without actual research on encounters with the gbirds you go to a conclusion based on premier ball data not with regular balls it worked for a while pretty sure it got nerfed because yknow anything that helps players gets tweaked
title alright, cover page fraud, good content but useless though
It’s been a while. So happy to see you getting the recognition from the community. Long may it continue 🫶🏽
Thanks so much! You're an OG. 😎