These videos have done more to help me truly grasp the future of our climate than almost anything else. You have an excellent skill at conveying detailed data in a meaningful, engaging, and most importantly useful and reproducible way.
Don't give me too much credit, timing-wise! I've been working on the Appalachia forecast for a few weeks, and it got put on the production calendar right away. But I needed to drill down and find some new tools to be able to tell this story in a way that would be useful to everyone. I'm really glad to finally be able to put out some info so many people have been waiting for.
I really appreciate you sharing the tools that you work with to understand climate change impacts. Your videos really help me better understand the expected impacts of climate change. Thank you so much for creating this content.
You are so welcome. In the last few years there have been so many amazing tools released. There are a lot of scientists out there who are trying really hard to get everyone the information we need. The more I can help publicize their tools on this channel, the better for everybody.
As far as hardiness zones go in southern Appalachia, the "historical data" is influenced by a series of extreme cold waves that struck during the early 1980s ('82, '85, '86). The cold wave of 1985 broke prior records by several degrees, and no cold wave since has been as cold as '85. If you ditch those early years, the average annual minimum jumps up by a couple degrees, which affects hardiness zones in some locations. That being said, Appalachia has warmed since the cold period of the 1950s-1980s, like most of the U.S. The transition you speak of has already been occurring. A place like Waynesville, NC - zone 6b on the official USDA map, is now a zone 7a.
I've heard from a decent handful of other people who have the historical numbers and argue against some of the data being used by the feds. Some of their information from the late 80s/early 90s in the Midwest seems to me like it's had more of the outliers sheared off than paints a good picture. They give you the confidence intervals in some of the reports, but you have to go really deep to get much information on the fidelity of the data collection, or of the mathematical choices they made around the statistical modeling. I figure it's worth trying to make the information we have more accessible. Even if only the broad strokes hold out, we're looking at a really different America in 2050 than we live in now. I hope the information helps people.
These videos have done more to help me truly grasp the future of our climate than almost anything else. You have an excellent skill at conveying detailed data in a meaningful, engaging, and most importantly useful and reproducible way.
Thanks so much- this was really meaningful for me to hear. I really appreciate your kind words
Wow, I emailed her broaching this subject and days later she posts this. What a truly amazing and dedicated person!
Don't give me too much credit, timing-wise! I've been working on the Appalachia forecast for a few weeks, and it got put on the production calendar right away. But I needed to drill down and find some new tools to be able to tell this story in a way that would be useful to everyone. I'm really glad to finally be able to put out some info so many people have been waiting for.
I really appreciate you sharing the tools that you work with to understand climate change impacts. Your videos really help me better understand the expected impacts of climate change. Thank you so much for creating this content.
You are so welcome. In the last few years there have been so many amazing tools released. There are a lot of scientists out there who are trying really hard to get everyone the information we need. The more I can help publicize their tools on this channel, the better for everybody.
Great information, thank you!
Another good one!
Thank you! We're going to keep working, keep trying to improve quality :-)
As far as hardiness zones go in southern Appalachia, the "historical data" is influenced by a series of extreme cold waves that struck during the early 1980s ('82, '85, '86). The cold wave of 1985 broke prior records by several degrees, and no cold wave since has been as cold as '85. If you ditch those early years, the average annual minimum jumps up by a couple degrees, which affects hardiness zones in some locations.
That being said, Appalachia has warmed since the cold period of the 1950s-1980s, like most of the U.S. The transition you speak of has already been occurring. A place like Waynesville, NC - zone 6b on the official USDA map, is now a zone 7a.
I've heard from a decent handful of other people who have the historical numbers and argue against some of the data being used by the feds. Some of their information from the late 80s/early 90s in the Midwest seems to me like it's had more of the outliers sheared off than paints a good picture.
They give you the confidence intervals in some of the reports, but you have to go really deep to get much information on the fidelity of the data collection, or of the mathematical choices they made around the statistical modeling.
I figure it's worth trying to make the information we have more accessible. Even if only the broad strokes hold out, we're looking at a really different America in 2050 than we live in now. I hope the information helps people.
I replied way earlier but TH-cam had an error when I tried to post and so it deleted my comment :/
wow this is interesting. One day could you do one on western Canada?
I need to find the data! I don't have this level of data for Canada, but if someone gets it to me I will definitely try.