Telecom Italia is a 3X NOW after 20 years of PAIN...
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 มิ.ย. 2024
- Telecom Italia is a stock that has offered only pain to its shareholders for the last 20 years.
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0:00 Telecom Italia Stock
1:00 TIM Business
5:45 Catalyst
9:28 Risk & Reward
Profitability is very bad and solvency is horrible,
Yes its undervalued but remember, cheap crap is still crap!
Exactly it’s just cheap crap
Correct. Such junk almost reminds me of what you find on the "Canadian Securities Exchange"...
correct!
That’s true, but investors are starting to sound like they did in the early 70’s, before the crash in ‘73. I’m starting to hear a lot of blanket statements about certain securities being ‘uninvestable’. Popular stocks have skyrocketed based on strong fundamentals, but people forget that no security is worth any price. And no security is ‘uninvestable’ at any price, either. Buffett would still be buying cigar butts if he could, no question 😊.
Telecommunication services is a Bad Sector. I don't think in a turnaround, for Tim. Same for at&t, Telefonica...by the way, i'm italian and i have Telecom since some days ago
Exellent point about Buffet saying 'turnarounds ' or promised turnarounds seldom turn around. And jumping in and out at the right time I've so far never been good at.
not easy!
Italy has one of the cheapest internet contracts in the world. Like 5-7 euros for basically unlimited mobile traffic on your smartphone
high competition
Yes, but they cant also go lower since they at the minimum, from a Greenblatt pow
Thank you for keeping it real with us. We're all getting hit over the head with these prices, the good thing is being in a position to pay these prices. I feel really bad for those who are not in the position to pay for their basic needs. God bless Herrick Malia imagine inviting $2,000 and getting $12,760 in 5days
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I know people come here for good stock advice, for me it is like coming to an investing school, thumbs up to you teacher :)
thanks!
Overall a very interesting video. Thank you, Sven.
Question - I see 3 different tickers, TIIAY, TIAOF, and TIAIA, for OTC exchange. The first has the largest volume. Is that the one I should be looking at?
If "everyone expects" how can the price not already reflect the expectation?
that is a good question, but the market usually needs a thing to happen to believe it, but even then it might not, as said in the video.
Just. Great. Content. Ciao from Italy 😊
grazie!
I ve tried buying the dip in credit Suisse, and I am swiss... They let it die, I got screwed. Probably the same will happen here.
here the thing is much simpler, it is impossible to look at the asset and liabilities of a bank like CS, but a telco is simpler, hard they will grow, but..
Sven, I will look into this. FYI ADM was a great call congrats.
Plenty of downside left until Italia steps in to save it or lets it die
also possible
As an Italian I wouldn't touch italian stocks with a ten feet pole
:-) certo, ma ad un certo punto...
It isn't for no reason that shareholders of Italian companies are often referred to as "parco buoi" in Italy, am I right?
@@Value-Investing touche'
Many Italian companies did fine. All the Financials (Intesa, Unicredit, Generali), Ferrari, Leonardo...
I did the same with Frc first republic bank…a piece of sh.. usually stay a piece of sh...
But no gut no glory and the risk reward is exceptional here…
That being said your calls are exceptionnals
Thank you Sven for this interesting video.
What are your thoughts on Reckitt Benckiser after the significant drop this Friday after the 60 million Dollar jury verdict?
Could you potentially discuss it in a future video?
Thank you for that information. It was very balanced and useful.
That is what I do!
Do you the tele company Proximus from Belgium. Also 'high' dividend and beaten down
Boun giorno, Sven! Grazie.
buon giorno!!!
8 telcos in italy? No way is that sustainable long-term. I think there will be less than half of them remaining after 10 -15 years due to consolidations. Also, the italian GDP has been flat for (or going down slightly) for 15+ years, dollar inflation probably not even accounting for. Unemployment still high as usual, population aging and shrinking,... I don't see any change happening in italy to revert these trends. Honestly I wouldn't touch anything utility or service related in such an enviroment.
it hasn't been sustainable for the past decade....
The Italian stock market has never been friendly to shareholders, even back when GDP was growing.
The management teams typically focus on growth in commodity-like businesses with no competitive advantage whatsoever, and equity is regarded as nothing more than a source of cheap risk capital.
Precisely when they publish the most optimistic projections you should be wary of the risks. It just happened a couple of years ago that Saipem gave the rosiest growth projections, and then shortly later issued a profit warning, made a couple of reverse splits, and finally a hyper-dilutive capital raise. That's not untypical.
but there were some really good businesses...
Got burned on LUMN, not gonna make the same mistake. Bad management will destroy your capital no matter how cheap a stock looks
that is correct!
The canadian Dollarama stock (DOL) has been going only up for a long time now and even at a P/E of 30 is looking cheap with a huge growth yoy for the last 5 yrs. It would be interesting to see your point of view on this one.
thanks for suggesting
Buongiorno!
Haven’t done a deeper dive of 6:53, but going to guess that the NetCo assets sold to KKR were probably the strongest (albeit the least sexy). In some ways it reminds me of Enron spinning off EOG and selling physical assets to Kinder Morgan. TIM is cheap and can probably get cheaper, much like the equity layer in many parts of the EU.
time will tell ;-)
Warren Buffet "Turnarounds seldon turn" ... Apple computer was a turnaround stock during the end of 80's (Peter Lynch, in One Up on WallStreet).
yes, but it wasn't a turnaround in 2017 when Buffett was buying
@@Value-Investing so it proves that turnarounds turns sometimes. (I think quite often for market Leaders) Peter Lynch explained in One up to WS that he made very big money with turnarounds stocks.
Looking forward to videos about solar!
Coming soon!
You should really take a look at Air France KLM, very Deep Value, and olympics are in France this year
Olympics are irrelevant, that is known those are there, and then....
Way too risky for me.
it is risky!
mega high risk/reward baby
fair point!
Add it in your list of worst buy along with the Amira food..
thanks for your enlightening comment, hope you have a nice day :-)
Nice Sven!
:-)
This guys is talking how to invest in Telecom Italia stock like the videos of American Chefs explain how to cook the perfect carbonara.
I discuss the risk and reward, e credi mi, e piu facile capirlo per un non italiano.. o quasi..
Thank you Sven, all the brasilian business missing from the review, there there are just 3 operetors and TIM is #2. In addition the acquisition of vodafone italy from Fastweb brings competitors in Italy to 7. Let's go TIM
that is also a part of it, but I focused on the current story
Buonasera Sven, Vodafone is quitting italian market after more than 20 years. Iliad, that is a new Company, is earnig market share with aggressive price campain (dumping?); less than 10 euros for mobile abbonament. I think that soon they will expand the fix net. Telecom is the most expensive company with big costs of management.
thanks for sharing!!!
Hello Sven. It would be great if you can analyze a chinese solar polysilicon manufacturer called Daqo New Energy. It trades at 50% of cash and 0.3 book. Its cyclical but long-term seems well suited for market supply dominance.
will do
Vodafone also sold telecom business to Swisscom in italy. Not sure of the impact though.
the price is high and shows the owner's value of telcos
They will use some of the 8B to buy back shares
It’s for too tickers TIIAY and TIAIY, anyone know the difference?
you have to check who their provider is, the liquidity etc...
Vodafone is exiting Italy and slashing divs by half, it was announced recently
thanks for sharing!
They are slashing divs in half in 2025 yes, first they said that will return 4B to shareholders from the latest sells. Makes sense, current div is nearly 12%.
BIG QUESTION-Sven when you shows statistics about markets and returns, averege invetors are allways losing money. But in your statistic nomber one is real estate, do you think we shoud bay houses instead investing in stocks?
that was because in the last 40 years interest rates just declined, now things have changed and REITs haven't been doing anything for the past 4 years...
Too much competition in Italy for the business. Vodafone had to sell the Italian opco to Swiss Com. It seems like nobody is winning the game
but Vodafone sold at a good price, so we will see how it goes and where
Best Channel on TH-cam
thanks!
waiting for Cembre to get closer to buying territory...
Seems similar to other fixed telecom's like Liberty global, Atus, etc...
Whole sector is priced like walking dead...so there should be alot of cigar butt opportunis
that is the plan
👏👏👏👏👏
:-)
It looks like someone stole my idea😝.
I am sorry but I don't follow what you do, I got this research idea from a client
@@Value-Investing I did send you an email 2 months ago about it Sven.
Un si guadagna nulla con i minatori d oro 😂😂😂 tu sei forte
As an Italy Based Investor 🇮🇹 I can say that Telecom Italia is a never ending corporate nightmare ☠. Decades of very bad management. I can remember the time when they use "Pirelli Routers" (yes the Tyre Maker), because the CEO was also a board member of Pirelli. 🤦♂ ! We can say that at 4.85B€ it's almost half of the 8B€ that Vodafone will receive for the sale of Vodafone Italia from Swisscom. It's cheap for sure, but i don't think that kissing a frog hoping that will become a Price is a Good Idea. 🐸
it will never become a prince, but you might make 20% if you seek such situations...
As Peter Lync would say ....how low can it go? Another 5.60% down today as conflicts with French Vivendi ..if one likes to take risks, much better to put money into Baba
it can always go lower :-( Especially if they don't grow as planned!
@@Value-Investing TIM is stereotype of the worst Italian company, it is similar to Alitalia ...lots of potential, but too much abused for decades. The culture inside those companies is so corrupted, they will never flourish, no matter what...
In my opinion, if looking into Italian market, there are better opportunities like Freni Brembo, an elite from one of the most productive and hard working area in Italy (Val Brembana, Bergamo) that produces breaks including those used by Ferrari in F1.
🗽Sometimes the low valuation ist not only a negative sentiment... be careful. ☝
.
I think I said in the video how careful I am:-))
I’m only able to buy stocks listed in the USA
maybe better :-))
Their results are very consistent with the quality of their service. I'm Italian and every time me or any relative of mine had the bad idea of signing with them we have been literally scammed by this company in various ways. I'd rather take any other telecom provider over them even if they would be cheaper (and they are not very cheap too) and surely I won't buy their stock no matter how cheap 😂 Probably they are selling off the only real valuable part of the business, which is the monopoly they had on the cable network and they might let it go bankrupt then...
When you say scammed, what you mean exactly?
@@carlooooooo the biggest thing was that they sent to my father a laptop he never asked for, and he sent it back, but still they charged for it in the following bill and it was such a pain to get them to refund us, it took almost a year. And also charging for calls to high cost numbers that I certainly never called, not big amounts, but still annoying. Things like that never happened to me with other companies, only with them.
@@davidm1436 Laptop? we're talking of 10 years ago.....
thanks for sharing
Telecom Italia... or how to make chicken salad out of chicken shit.
haha, buona!
Im european and i can tell u dont invest here. Especially if you dont live here.
:-) good point!
I wouldnt buy tim not even if you twisted my arm and put a gum on my head
:-))
Too risky
fair point!