Great analysis! Not just the buy/sell rating, but really all the background considerations on debt, covenants, stocking/de-stocking cycles, and value creation. This is what makes this channel valuable to learn and understand markets. Thanks!
Sven, you didn't mention a significant potential risk related to FMC. FMC faces a class action lawsuit for misleading investors. I believe the lawsuit could have a significant impact on the company's future.
Perhaps not the lawsuit but the fact that they lost patent lawsuits so earnings might not come back, increasing leverage. Also, looking at other stocks in the sector, the drop in stock price might be more related to the patents than a huge downcycle in the sector.
Link to short report by the firm who discovered the news: static1.squarespace.com/static/5a81b554be42d6b09e19fc09/t/64f9c4959d2cfc522e2800c5/1694090391899/Blue+Orca+Short+FMC+Corporation+%28NYSE+FMC%29.pdf
Yes, the patent lawsuit losses are definitely a risk for future earnings. But it must also be said that the management bought the stock all the way down. So the price action might have overshot like it often does after bad news. I am on the fence regarding this stock.
its a decent buy but its not a likely candidate to give 25-35% return in the medium to long term in my view. short term could indeed be 25% until the 2x then the return will likely average 10-15% per annum. Best for FMC would be to scrap the dividend and buybacks for half a year, pay down huge amount of debt and than continue from there.
Very nice and detailed analysis! Thank you! I was wondering about Nokian...if you think it could be interesting to make a video about the current situation sometime I would love to watch that. Always a pleasure to see new videos!
Hi sven, as your platform member i really love this way of doing investing: putting great business in watchlist and patiently wait until Mr. Market give us opportunities. If it happens great if not...other opportunities will arise.
Sven, you might not be aware that FMC’s patents on two of their top selling crop chemical expired in 2023, those critical patents are now public domain. They lost another court case which means their other chemical product will patent expire in 2026. This is the reason for the correction, not cyclical reasons.
Sven, do you ever look at pennystocks usually like junior miners or oil producers? Higher risk, higher reward, but limiting risk with proven cash flow and production?
Sven I've been a subscriber to the platform for 4-5 years now just wanted to thank you for the great work! Also, I enjoy the written reports but it's very nice to get a longer video like this covering the entire process from beginning to end!
300 million cash on hand, 300 million paid in dividends, 3 billion long term debt with negative cash flow. Why are they paying dividends at all? Doesn't seem to be a smart use of their capital.
It sound prudent but stock market dont like dividend cuts so management more often than not use debt to fund dividends rather than send stock price down another 20% with eliminating the dividend.@@Yaxez
Interesting how almost every company is putting key words like "AI" in their presentations. FMC - new "AI" pipeline. I am not informed about this industry, so this probably refers to "agricultural innovation" :) But it is interesting to see "AI" show up multiple times in their presentation.
I've recently come into an inheritance of nearly $500,000, i'm being directed towards the stock market. What risk management strategies are recommended to navigate and safeguard my investment in the market?
Explore the option of engaging financial advisors, estate planners, or tax experts. Their specialized expertise can assist you in navigating intricate financial decisions.
Speaking with an advisor helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January 2022, This helped me stay afloat and improve my portfolio of $450k in months.They have strategies that are specifically suited to your long-term objectives and financial aspirations.
Wouldn’t the war in Ukraine create supply chain disruption for oil and fertilizer that should increase food prices and agricultural production from companies like FMC in general the problem should go up for high demand in food?
Only if you consider to buy only bio foods with 7 billion people on the planet, which would mean to pay 20 USD for a kilo of potatoes. :) It looks like short-term risk, but even Bayer will survive it and when it survives, it could rule the world. (One of the reasons why Germany is leading war in Ukraine right now is because of the vast agricultural resources, which to a big part belong to...Monsanto aka Bayer.:))) People lifes are unfortunately without value for the politicians....but they care about power and in order to keep it, they will make everything possible to provide (short-term) food for the people even if it' s poisonous....
beware the earnings dropping and dropping . stocks prices keep dropping and dropping without any insider support. better wait for lower price and improved earnings before committing your money
Ok Steve, you do nice videos, but your key growth potential is that you do a very superficial analysis of the business and the industry, not the profits and the margin, but the underlying business. I've noticed the same mistake in other video. My friendly advise is to do more on the business understanding, you need to know the drivers, other players, and market trends. Indeed, agro chemical business in undergoing significant transformation these days, especially in Europe. In 5 years, the market will be changed dramatically. You need to know it to invest like Buffer whom you frequently quote. FMC is cheap, but it is cheap for a reason. to invest like Buffett you need to know the business and the industry inside out and invest in the very best companies for at at least several years to they stay and multiply. it is a friendly advice from another value investor :)
I agree with you, and I do that on the businesses I am interested in. Keep in mind this is TH-cam and I share up to where I research. Those interested can dig deeper.
This looked quite nice at $55 but now at $63 it still looks pretty good, but more risky since it has already gone up by 20% it kind of feels like a missed opportunity.
I suspect that many investors consider ag stocks to be rather stable investments but - as George Gershwin wrote - it ain't necessarily so. Bayer is not doing great ATM; eco-friendly Wunderkind Verde AgriTech is down about 80% (...) and Asian giant Wilmar is already down 25% on my buy price. Seem crypto miners are a less volatile investment.
I think this a dangerous recommendation, in terms of value. Did you notice the Wikipedia superfund information? Those liabilities could be the reason it's low.
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Great analysis! Not just the buy/sell rating, but really all the background considerations on debt, covenants, stocking/de-stocking cycles, and value creation. This is what makes this channel valuable to learn and understand markets. Thanks!
Sven is the best
Thanks
Kinda missed the run though.
Sven, you didn't mention a significant potential risk related to FMC. FMC faces a class action lawsuit for misleading investors. I believe the lawsuit could have a significant impact on the company's future.
Perhaps not the lawsuit but the fact that they lost patent lawsuits so earnings might not come back, increasing leverage. Also, looking at other stocks in the sector, the drop in stock price might be more related to the patents than a huge downcycle in the sector.
Thanks for sharing! Usually these lawsuits when stock drops fall into water
Nice contribution. I think Sven just overlooked this as he isn't looking to invest in this (so no time for due diligence)
Link to short report by the firm who discovered the news:
static1.squarespace.com/static/5a81b554be42d6b09e19fc09/t/64f9c4959d2cfc522e2800c5/1694090391899/Blue+Orca+Short+FMC+Corporation+%28NYSE+FMC%29.pdf
Yes, the patent lawsuit losses are definitely a risk for future earnings. But it must also be said that the management bought the stock all the way down. So the price action might have overshot like it often does after bad news. I am on the fence regarding this stock.
Hey sven, do you preffer FMC over ACOMO at current prices ??
its a decent buy but its not a likely candidate to give 25-35% return in the medium to long term in my view. short term could indeed be 25% until the 2x then the return will likely average 10-15% per annum. Best for FMC would be to scrap the dividend and buybacks for half a year, pay down huge amount of debt and than continue from there.
yep, that is it
10-15% is not bad at all.
Thanks a lot for covering Sven!
I have SQM as my agriculture and lithium play but I’m considering adding FMC and LAC for direct exposure. Thank you for the video
thanks for sharing
Have you read blue orca’s short report on it?
Thanks for sharing that!
Very nice and detailed analysis! Thank you! I was wondering about Nokian...if you think it could be interesting to make a video about the current situation sometime I would love to watch that. Always a pleasure to see new videos!
Sven, how about CVR Partners, LP (ticker UAN)? P/E 2.76, Div yld 40%, short % float under 3.
Have not looked for a while
Hi sven,
as your platform member i really love this way of doing investing: putting great business in watchlist and patiently wait until Mr. Market give us opportunities. If it happens great if not...other opportunities will arise.
Glad you enjoy it!
Always a pleasure Sven! Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
My pleasure!
Great job,they bought a lot of shares in 2021 with hig processo, management capital allocazione is not n.1 but probably stock willl recover in 24
Why is their debt growing like that? Is it capital investment or are they funding their dividend through debt
Are you using earnings or fcf for this one?
Sven, you might not be aware that FMC’s patents on two of their top selling crop chemical expired in 2023, those critical patents are now public domain. They lost another court case which means their other chemical product will patent expire in 2026. This is the reason for the correction, not cyclical reasons.
thanks for sharing and adding value!
Sven, do you ever look at pennystocks usually like junior miners or oil producers? Higher risk, higher reward, but limiting risk with proven cash flow and production?
I look at everything
Sven I've been a subscriber to the platform for 4-5 years now just wanted to thank you for the great work! Also, I enjoy the written reports but it's very nice to get a longer video like this covering the entire process from beginning to end!
Glad to hear it!
It feels like a safe investment to diversify my dividend portfolio.
@value-investing The price is dropping - their projections are not great. Still consider this a buy?
depends if the risk and reward fits you - I think I explained it!
Definitely going to keep my eye on it
Good call, thank you!
Please cover Palladium and Platinum. Thank you
did recently: th-cam.com/video/B2L08l-osCg/w-d-xo.html
Thank you. As usual, great content.
My pleasure!
Hi Sven, what is ACOMO at the moment?
we have to see the impact on financials.
300 million cash on hand, 300 million paid in dividends, 3 billion long term debt with negative cash flow.
Why are they paying dividends at all? Doesn't seem to be a smart use of their capital.
just an inventory thing they say, should normalize next year
Wouldnt it be prudent to keep the cash on the balance sheet until that future realises? That's my opinion at least.@@Value-Investing
It sound prudent but stock market dont like dividend cuts so management more often than not use debt to fund dividends rather than send stock price down another 20% with eliminating the dividend.@@Yaxez
Interesting how almost every company is putting key words like "AI" in their presentations. FMC - new "AI" pipeline. I am not informed about this industry, so this probably refers to "agricultural innovation" :) But it is interesting to see "AI" show up multiple times in their presentation.
How about Thai bev and Asia plastic Indonesia?
i like CTVA more, long-term!
Me too. Great rating, low debt, much more stable earnings etc. People should always prefer companies with lower debt as debt is crippling.
Suggestion for analysis. Cyclical chemical companies who are currently in a disaster of earnings. $BAK and $SOMMY.
FMC with free shares. Do not know it but valuation appears to be good
I am in this. Thanks.
Chobit as in Chobits? Great show!
@@pongop Yes I feel old.
@@martinithechobit Lol me too.
I made a lot of money trading LTHM a few years ago, but I still don't think it's a value stock yet.
Thanks for sharing
Very good advice ❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉
Glad it was helpful!
Still a good investment if going in today?
haven't updated since :-(
I will buy in right after market opening tomorrow.. 🎉😂 thanks Sven
I've recently come into an inheritance of nearly $500,000, i'm being directed towards the stock market. What risk management strategies are recommended to navigate and safeguard my investment in the market?
Explore the option of engaging financial advisors, estate planners, or tax experts. Their specialized expertise can assist you in navigating intricate financial decisions.
Speaking with an advisor helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January 2022, This helped me stay afloat and improve my portfolio of $450k in months.They have strategies that are specifically suited to your long-term objectives and financial aspirations.
Goodmorning from 🇺🇸 Sven!
can you do a video on $BMY Bristol Myers stock?
Sold off and long term looks like a good bet. What do you think?
I'll check it out
Also own Cash i. Careful 😊
that is the smart way!
I caught recent bottom.. continue to addno problem 😅
great to hear!
Sven's wife doesn't let him invest in pesticides ;)
:/))
Stock is down another 6% since this video came out. “Cheap” stocks usually get cheaper and “expensive” stocks usually get more expensive!
'usually' - hm
FMC does check lots of the good boxes. I know you don't like to talk, but any w00ke political headwinds?
This is global, woke is more just trendy media
Nice, Like it
Take a look at SMG
Wouldn’t the war in Ukraine create supply chain disruption for oil and fertilizer that should increase food prices and agricultural production from companies like FMC in general the problem should go up for high demand in food?
When I saw Sven's Alibaba buy video, I bought Alibaba 😭
:-)
@@Value-Investingare u still a believer?
Nice.
Considering what happened to Bayer the industry could be high risk.
that for sure, low risk if it doesn' t happen, high risk if something happens
Only if you consider to buy only bio foods with 7 billion people on the planet, which would mean to pay 20 USD for a kilo of potatoes. :) It looks like short-term risk, but even Bayer will survive it and when it survives, it could rule the world. (One of the reasons why Germany is leading war in Ukraine right now is because of the vast agricultural resources, which to a big part belong to...Monsanto aka Bayer.:))) People lifes are unfortunately without value for the politicians....but they care about power and in order to keep it, they will make everything possible to provide (short-term) food for the people even if it' s poisonous....
@@ukrainechronicles888 Bayer will survive but investors will lose money
beware the earnings dropping and dropping . stocks prices keep dropping and dropping without any insider support. better wait for lower price and improved earnings before committing your money
Ok Steve, you do nice videos, but your key growth potential is that you do a very superficial analysis of the business and the industry, not the profits and the margin, but the underlying business. I've noticed the same mistake in other video. My friendly advise is to do more on the business understanding, you need to know the drivers, other players, and market trends.
Indeed, agro chemical business in undergoing significant transformation these days, especially in Europe. In 5 years, the market will be changed dramatically. You need to know it to invest like Buffer whom you frequently quote. FMC is cheap, but it is cheap for a reason. to invest like Buffett you need to know the business and the industry inside out and invest in the very best companies for at at least several years to they stay and multiply.
it is a friendly advice from another value investor :)
I agree with you, and I do that on the businesses I am interested in. Keep in mind this is TH-cam and I share up to where I research. Those interested can dig deeper.
1 month later - the stock is down 11%
so? Stocks go up and down:-)
It's going to go lower
@Value-Investing it's going to go lower.
This looked quite nice at $55 but now at $63 it still looks pretty good, but more risky since it has already gone up by 20% it kind of feels like a missed opportunity.
That is normal when investing
Sven!You should research AMC, not FMC
thanks for suggesting
@@Value-Investing lol
The Bayer joke 🤣
fits perfectly:-)))
Can you do a FTNT (fortinet) company analysis?
I suspect that many investors consider ag stocks to be rather stable investments but - as George Gershwin wrote - it ain't necessarily so. Bayer is not doing great ATM; eco-friendly Wunderkind Verde AgriTech is down about 80% (...) and Asian giant Wilmar is already down 25% on my buy price.
Seem crypto miners are a less volatile investment.
I add to this The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, that is at -80% from ATH
Too much debt for my taste.
I think this a dangerous recommendation, in terms of value. Did you notice the Wikipedia superfund information? Those liabilities could be the reason it's low.
that is the reason, but that is the risk and reward!
This year has presented challenges in diverse markets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. It's evident that success, particularly in the cryptocurrency realm, stems from wise decision-making. Personally, day trading under Cheryl Atonal's guidance has been remarkably profitable. In just six weeks, I've increased my holdings from 4.1 Bitcoin to 19 Bitcoin. The message is clear: Act now to rekindle optimism; don't wait for the market to surge.
Finding her name here is unexpected. As a beginner, she guided me, teaching essential trading principles and sharing her daily strategies. Her courses are excellent, and I'm now earning daily in cryptotrading , thanks to her.
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary
Nice to see this here, I have worked with her also for months now, she simplifies matters, whether it's a market surge or drop; her approach consistently achieves profitable outcomes.
Cheryl Atonal deserves more accolades, I'm so impressed knowing how much people talk good about her expertise... she also helped me and my friends here in the UK 🇬🇧 to trade profitably with her daily signals.
what about palladium? the chart seems to be waking up after a long time.
did recently: th-cam.com/video/B2L08l-osCg/w-d-xo.html
Wtf happend to fmc today it just puked.
earnings!
Good investment for your own destruction!