3 States Trump Must Carry to Win the Electoral College (2024 Map)

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.พ. 2024
  • Former Republican President Donald Trump needs to flip just 3 states to defeat incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election-- which trio should his campaign target most heavily?
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ความคิดเห็น • 594

  • @madbusa3388
    @madbusa3388 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +100

    Pennsylvania rarely votes using common sense or financial responsibility . I’ve lived here for nearly 40 years and it’s miserable.

    • @Weirdoh8er
      @Weirdoh8er 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +27

      Yep, I live in PA too but now that I can vote in this election I am registering as a Republican

    • @MandatoryMyocarditis7
      @MandatoryMyocarditis7 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

      It didn't make sense because of the ballot stuffing. Don't forget the story of a trucker who drove from NY to PA with about 250K ballots and they were all emptied out and disappeared... cough...cough.

    • @skygge1006
      @skygge1006 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Ah yes voting for the commons sense financially responsible group that runs the amazingly wealthy states such as Alabama or Mississippi, not only the poorest but the highest crime! The wealth is amazing there!

    • @dogsarefun2
      @dogsarefun2 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      they don't have to vote

    • @mattmelchiorre4790
      @mattmelchiorre4790 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I lived in Philly over 40 years it's a welfare cesspool shithole and it's the only thing that makes the state a toss up. The democrat machine is very powerful and corrupt. Of the 10 biggest cities Philly has the highest poverty rate far and away they bus these people to the polls but one good thing working men in Philly will go Trump and Meek Mill endorsed Trump which will help pull more black men on board it's just sickening that people who've never worked make a difference in elections

  • @TheToiletCushion
    @TheToiletCushion 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +42

    Hoping my beautiful state of Arizona goes back to being red

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Western Australia. Offers

    • @TheToiletCushion
      @TheToiletCushion 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@gavinringland1362 got me confused with this comment

    • @killalphadoom1865
      @killalphadoom1865 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      It will

    • @RobertoMoya-oq9zr
      @RobertoMoya-oq9zr 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Doubt it

    • @fgb3126
      @fgb3126 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      It will if the Democrats don't steal it again.

  • @Lyaworski123
    @Lyaworski123 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +46

    My state of New York may be up for grabs! NYC is not happy about the migrant crisis!

    • @Derp-flash-go-duuur
      @Derp-flash-go-duuur 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +12

      Bronx nyer here, agreed!

    • @luismolina9557
      @luismolina9557 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +19

      Legal migrants aren’t happy about it either!!

    • @jh2519
      @jh2519 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +14

      One can dream! Hopefully it comes true!

    • @RB-.-
      @RB-.- 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Nah. Way too many "never trump" liberal elitists in their high rises who've never seen a migrant

    • @NickHernandez2024
      @NickHernandez2024 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      May is not even a comprehendable word. More like "impossible"
      No, NY is not up for grabs.

  • @Leon-rh1pk
    @Leon-rh1pk 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +110

    All the states that Trump must win also have the most controversial election practices in 2020. TH-cam feels it necessary to tag a link about the 2020 election to the top of the video disruption. It will be interesting to see how much scrutiny will be placed on those states coming up to November.

    • @Nellis202
      @Nellis202 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +16

      That link is the height of hypocrisy.
      And from Wikipedia no less !

    • @MandatoryMyocarditis7
      @MandatoryMyocarditis7 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      YT also has AI in place that will censor any narrative they don't like. Look out for the final months and days before the election that any negative posts about Biden will be deleted along with any positive about Trump. They also keep track of social credit scores from your posts. The AI is very smart and can understand the context of your posts. It's not like the old days where they were just looking for keywords.

    • @Brian-px9gu
      @Brian-px9gu 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      @@Nellis202SOROS owned propaganda. My son’s school has banned the use of it as a viable reference.

    • @mattmelchiorre4790
      @mattmelchiorre4790 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      He has to win by a margin they can't steal it out from under us. Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada should be safe and even though Michigan has Whitmer between the auto workers and the Muslims even with fraud it should go Trump but PA. and Arizona will be tough he needs to win by 5 points

    • @priceright8963
      @priceright8963 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      ​@@Brian-px9guIt's not viable at all. When I wrote papers in high school and college, almost every teacher and professor had a policy where citing Wikipedia was an automatic zero for the assignment. Here's hoping things haven't changed since I got my BS degree in 2011.

  • @StonedGnome95
    @StonedGnome95 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +51

    Nevada is flipping for Trump. Sorry it took us three freaking elections.

    • @jamingoette9062
      @jamingoette9062 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Thats what we said in MN 4 years ago and he got slaughtered.

    • @TheJoeschmoe777
      @TheJoeschmoe777 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      ​@@jamingoette9062Who was saying that? I don't remember hearing a single republican betting on MN

    • @mizterbradley7206
      @mizterbradley7206 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Nevada won't really make a difference to either candidate due to the math. Sorry. :)

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Biden doesn’t even need Nevada it’s Arizona Trump would want to flip

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      My. Ringland. Offers

  • @greenhornet5186
    @greenhornet5186 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +68

    The Willis/Wade debacle in Georgia may help to solidify a Trump victory in Georgia.

    • @RONALDB62
      @RONALDB62 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +12

      And the murder of the nursing student by the IA….

    • @MandatoryMyocarditis7
      @MandatoryMyocarditis7 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@RONALDB62 Good acronym.

    • @andrewmckenzie292
      @andrewmckenzie292 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Especially as 41 of Trump's 91 indictments could be resting on her, if her prosecutions are thrown out that is half of his indictments gone as well.

    • @njpme
      @njpme 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ​@@andrewmckenzie292they'll just move it to another county

    • @andrewmckenzie292
      @andrewmckenzie292 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@njpme It would mean starting it all up again at great expense to taxpayers. The cases were never great to begin with and rely on hatred of Trump to really get anywhere, with such political trials you either need to get it right the first time or its finished.

  • @ernstvandijk6342
    @ernstvandijk6342 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +60

    Great analysis, but it doesn't take into account third-party candidates, who are likely to decide the election. Moreover, Republicans should harvest votes on a large scale, like the Democrats do. Waiting till election day for everyone to vote is too risky because of unpredictable weather conditions and vulnerable voting equipment (prone to tampering).

    • @kbkilla360
      @kbkilla360 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Well that’s bad news for the GOP because Trump insists on voting during Election Day. At his most recent town hall he doubled down on his skepticism of mail in ballots. If he keeps dissuading Republicans from voting by mail then he’s probably already lost.

    • @Brian-px9gu
      @Brian-px9gu 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The current stream of third party candidates only impact the fake in office and the democratic office. Trump’s base is pretty solidified and growing. The biggest problem the democrats are going to face is losing democratic house seats in the border states and minority vote. They are hemorrhaging the black and Hispanic vote and it doesn’t take large percentages to cripple the Democratic Party due to the dependence they have on those voting blocks.

    • @RFazor
      @RFazor 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Indeed!

    • @petersaulnier3526
      @petersaulnier3526 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      i do not see why USA national election day has to be always in November, why not October.
      or any month that does not have a high chance of weather issues that November has..
      seems like if it makes the election more easy to complete it could be a change that both sides could agree on.

    • @mizterbradley7206
      @mizterbradley7206 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@petersaulnier3526 You would think that. But its funny how ONE party always blocks such efforts. And ONE party is always coming up with new ways to suppress the vote as much as possible. Republicans always pray for low turnout for a reason.

  • @braxtonoertwig9191
    @braxtonoertwig9191 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +73

    280 count is being a little conservative, President trump will get over 300 EC votes.

    • @seanmacmahon
      @seanmacmahon 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      He is not president!

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      Republicans biggest issue is being to overly confident that republicans have this in the bag in November when in reality it’s gonna be a fight PA and MI ain’t flipping easily

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      South west. App

    • @andrewmckenzie292
      @andrewmckenzie292 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@opticbigevil7828 PA is probably the toughest one, going by the polls and past results. GA and AZ for instance were fairly safe for GOP in the past so Trump just needs to get past the recent trends in those states to get them...they are probably his strongest bets, then MI then Wisconsin, Nevada and finally PA.

    • @notting2640
      @notting2640 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@opticbigevil7828You underestimate how many Dems are disgruntled by the illegal immigration issue these days. Dems only support illegal immigration until illegal immigration is happening in their neighborhood, the all of a sudden it’s now a problem for them 😂
      Biden really screwed up by opening the borders the way he did, I think Trump is going to win by a landslide if he campaigns on this issue aggressively.

  • @stevenvaldezii7936
    @stevenvaldezii7936 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +49

    I want Trump to win but won’t believe it until I see it.

    • @lisasclafani5185
      @lisasclafani5185 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +18

      Couldn't have said it better. Would not put it past them to pull interference again, and with Haley, my worst nightmare.

    • @kbkilla360
      @kbkilla360 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      I can’t wait for Allan Lichtman’s prediction because I have Biden winning using his model but everything else is indicating Trump is stronger than ever. I don’t know what to think.

    • @Michael1966W
      @Michael1966W 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@kbkilla360same here. The only changes I see are Trump picking up Georgia and Nevada but AZ, PA, MI and WI going to Biden with Biden winning narrowily however, I do see the Republicans winning control of the US Senate regardless of how the president race goes

    • @Jspnj85
      @Jspnj85 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      He will win most likely. Everyone knows more people are voting for him.

    • @stevenvaldezii7936
      @stevenvaldezii7936 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@Jspnj85 if he wins I will remember to congratulate you on being right?

  • @Utsu-P_Enjoyer
    @Utsu-P_Enjoyer 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +27

    Personally I think Georgia should be the #1 target for Trump, he's polling the best there and Bidens historically low approval with black voters give him the best conditions for this. #2 should be PA, then MI and Nevada, after that it's hard to say for me

    • @AussieAvgeek98
      @AussieAvgeek98 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      I would Arizona to that list as well

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Ringland. App

    • @Fly_Slo
      @Fly_Slo 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I think it's PA.
      In my view Biden winning Wisconsin 2020 was a fluke, (so was Georgia but less of one) , in 2024 I just don't see the math for Biden in WI at best biden loses there by like a point and a half and trump probably wins it by like 3 to 4. Where I think winning PA is the most important is that I think Wisconsin trends wise is basically a given w pop vote swinging potentially 10 points, probably 3-7 points right from 2020, if trump wins PA along w WI, biden would have to win all 4 other states (AZ, NV, MI & GA) to get over 270 if trump gets PA Biden basically has 0 path. Or a severely against the odds one because trump would only have to win 1 out of the 4.

    • @defaultusername1145
      @defaultusername1145 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Technically trump is polling better in nevada

    • @jackherndon8245
      @jackherndon8245 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      He does not need to "target" Georgia or Florida or North Carolina or Texas. He is going to sweep all four of them. You target borderline states that you have a shot of taking. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin come to mind.

  • @jong.7944
    @jong.7944 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +58

    If I'm Trump I'd hate to make my biggest bet on PA... The bottom line is the Dems were caught sleeping in 2016 but the Philly machine is still alive and kicking and a giant drag on Republican dreams in the state. I'd shift at least some of my bets back to Minnesota which doesn't have that dynamic to nearly the same extent.

    • @MichaelWeitz
      @MichaelWeitz 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Are you kidding me? The election had to be stolen in 2020. Trump was ahead by 800,000 votes for crying out loud in Pennsylvania. He was hitting better than 25% in Philadelphia during the day. The night time he can't hit 1%. The truth is hitting you in the face. Michigan Trump was ahead by over 400,000 votes. All about counters were sent home except for two. One was wearing a Biden Harris hat. It's on video for crying out loud didn't you see it. Here come the trees from underneath the table. Wow, look at them votes for Biden. All of a sudden nobody's voting for Trump. I suppose you didn't see the fake signatures in Arizona where Kari Lake showed them. What was the response to the fake signatures by the progressive liberal news media. Why Kari Lake broke the law by showing the by showing the ballots. Watch the documentary 2000 mules if you can find. I found it on the internet. Shall we say it's been banned in this country. The 2020 election stood because the judges were afraid to overturn it because of the violent riots and burned down cities that would because the left wood riot. Not like our side carrying the American flag and having to be into the capital. I have over 400 videos of 99% of them white people being beat in the streets when the left rioted in 2020. Facebook will not let me post them. Hide the truth. There'll be enough dummies that would believe 1/6 was a riot.

    • @ValuePicker11
      @ValuePicker11 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The fulcrum state is Michigan as a result of October 7th. It's easy to create negative adds by playing contradictory statements by Biden and surrogates on Hamas and Israel which will irritate last minute voters from Dearborn or those repulsed by Hamas atrocities. Of these six, Georgia is safest with strengthened voter integrity laws and Fulton county scandals. Only need with one other with Nevada at top of list. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ballot harvesting is a tough hurdle in a nail bitter election. Arizona early voting is critical.

    • @taguewilkins1366
      @taguewilkins1366 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Biden actually performed worse in Philly than Hillary Clinton did. Trump being blown out in the suburbs was what lost him the state. The rightward shift of a lot of the northeastern rust belt counties has drastically reduced Philadelphia's influence on the final result.

    • @lingjohn1288
      @lingjohn1288 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Not to mention the machine in Pittsburgh is just as bad and they're turning one out in the Lehigh valley

    • @jong.7944
      @jong.7944 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@lingjohn1288 Yeah, I didn't mention Pittsburgh simply because it's much smaller and not nearly as notorious as the Philly machine, but of course both combined are the Dem bulwarks in the state and famously "with Alabama in between" as Carville used to say. If you're going to beat that machine you'd better have your own crazy GOTV operation and that's never been Trump's strength.

  • @bendover2308
    @bendover2308 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +71

    Instead of "college educated" you should say "college indoctrinated"

    • @J0riS
      @J0riS 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Lmao that is EXACTLY what I thought to myself when he said it !

    • @Weirdoh8er
      @Weirdoh8er 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      So true, educated doesn't equal intelligent, especially now

    • @skygge1006
      @skygge1006 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@Weirdoh8eryea i mean the states that are less educated are poorer, more likely to commit crimes, have less skills, etc. that’s why education is bad.

    • @Brian-px9gu
      @Brian-px9gu 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      @@skygge1006 data doesn’t suggest that. Violent crimes are committed in more democratic areas by large numbers. And college educated doesn’t mean intelligent or having common sense. And college educated doesn’t mean more skilled. If anything most people in densely populated areas are vastly under skilled.

    • @skygge1006
      @skygge1006 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@Brian-px9gu violent crimes are committed at higher rates in many republican states although I am generally speaking about the Deep South. College educated does usually lead to more skilled people as they have more knowledge and ability to do things that without it many couldn’t. If anything most people in densely populated areas are vastly under skilled? In what physical labor? The things we are replacing with machines? The machines that are created in factories in densely populated areas and a where the research and development that goes into removing those skills from even being need or used at all is generally done in cities? Interesting…

  • @jimstansbury6013
    @jimstansbury6013 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Black vote will cause the map to turn red. Polls will not reach them in time to see the red wave

  • @blueraven6693
    @blueraven6693 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    Can we all take a moment to appreciate how much effort ryan puts into these videos. I wish i kept up with stats/demographics this well😂 also i love how he stays unbiased

  • @james5460
    @james5460 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +12

    Georgia is going Red. Arizona, too. Can't count on Nevada, too many Californias - though I'd say this is the best chance Republicans have had there recently and it would be part of a winning Trump coalition that wasn't narrow-thin. The three Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, PA, and Michigan are the toss-ups, and where all the resources - all of them - should go to the extent lavishing attention on them could affect their outcomes.

    • @adamatassi3900
      @adamatassi3900 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      I agree in Georgia and Arizona. If trump adds those two to his column and Michigan, it’s literally over. As things stand rn, I think he will do just that, but obviously the election is still months away so who knows what will be the case then

  • @GeneleUrbiztondoDueyEdraHansen
    @GeneleUrbiztondoDueyEdraHansen 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +16

    Trump.will upset in MN and VA

    • @johnlewish334
      @johnlewish334 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      I feel the same way

    • @jong.7944
      @jong.7944 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Minnesota has a lot of promise - Virginia though has the long-time problem that the federal govt is simply too big and has swallowed up the northern tier of the state. That's always going to make VA a tough reach, and while Youngkin pulled it off it literally took the teacher's unions outright running against parents and refusing to do their jobs to achieve it. Trump doesn't have those advantages and he's not as amiable as Youngkin either.

  • @Rhbrehaut
    @Rhbrehaut 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +21

    Based on your latest projections seems like no matter how you slice it Trump wins. He just needs to keep the focus on Biden as much as possible.

    • @uriahbleue1947
      @uriahbleue1947 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      nah the democrats have cheated the system to far illegal migrants are voting in the elections all through the country. Biden will win or his replacement will.

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Predictions not projections nobody on this earth can project an election outcome 8 months away just because it looks like Trump will win doesn’t mean he will PA and MI will most likely stay blue due to the bigger cities getting more blue Trump needs to focus more on GA WI and the sunbelt

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Can’t get no more joe Biden

  • @davidfong5080
    @davidfong5080 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Did you include the "cheat" factors?

  • @pauladitomasso8149
    @pauladitomasso8149 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    This country is a mess My God vote for TRUMP 2024💕🙏🇺🇸

  • @Greg_Robertson
    @Greg_Robertson 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +21

    In theory, all Trump would need to flip would be Georgia and Pennsylvania. And this might be a hot take, but I think Michigan would flip before Arizona, honestly.

    • @BabyMaharaja0
      @BabyMaharaja0 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      I think Michigan can flip because of the arab American population who won't vote for Biden

    • @patrick9134
      @patrick9134 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@BabyMaharaja0 the arabic population is about 1% of the state. Beleive me they’re not the deciding factor for flipping the state or not. Outside of Detroit metro they’re no where to be found.

    • @jong.7944
      @jong.7944 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@patrick9134 I'd have to double check but I think they were well over 200,000. Not decisive on their own, but when you're talking about a state where 30,000 is hailed as a landslide win I think you can see the issue.

    • @patrick9134
      @patrick9134 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@jong.7944 you’re right. As proven he doesn’t need the Arabic vote to win. But if he cuts into it. He’s winning without a doubt.(in Michigan ) maybe even Minnesota

    • @mizterbradley7206
      @mizterbradley7206 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Michigan won't flip. Neither will Pennsylvania. The UAW strikes saw to that. Even stronger in Minnesota. Wisconsin is an outside shot, but he'll need to protect North Carolina, flip GA, and also get AZ to win. Its a tough map for him.

  • @metal_bassist
    @metal_bassist 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +32

    Come on WISCONSIN!!!! We NEED to back Trump!

    • @dylanbailey4776
      @dylanbailey4776 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I don't want to back a rapist though...

    • @priceright8963
      @priceright8963 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@dylanbailey4776I sure as hell ain't backing a pedotato...

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Gavin’s Ringland. Are. Be come. Marking. Trump. Offers. At. South west coast

  • @collinhackett5632
    @collinhackett5632 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    I’d love to see a breakdown with RFK factored in. It would be interesting to see how it changes the forecast.

  • @julesscangojr.35
    @julesscangojr.35 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Fightjng for Pa is a losing battle. Philly County and its surrounding counties + Allegheny County are too much to overcome. Foucus in securing Ga, Wisc, Arz, and you have the win.

  • @Beastius24
    @Beastius24 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +12

    A lot will depend on how much Trump can focus on positive messaging about wars, the economy and security. I am a bit uneasy about Arizona and Nevada despite polling data. I am pretty certain that he will reclaim Georgia and Wisconsin but PA and MI will go down the wire IMHO

    • @Brian-px9gu
      @Brian-px9gu 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Arizona is going to flip. The border and crime are huge issues and one that Biden can’t win on now. The democrats leadership in Arizona is mostly inept now and not trusted.

    • @TheJoeschmoe777
      @TheJoeschmoe777 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      If he reclaims WI there's no way MI is going blue

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Australia app

  • @skydiver1013
    @skydiver1013 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    Nice political analysis. 👍👍👍

  • @angrychickenyt
    @angrychickenyt 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Other than likley states, the states he NEEDS are: NC and GA. beyond those 2, he can win with loads of different combinations, but the best state beyond those 2 is PA.

    • @mizterbradley7206
      @mizterbradley7206 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      He can't win PA or MI. Too much union favorability from the UAW strikes. His only realistic path is to hold NC, and flip GA, AZ, and WI. Big hill to climb.

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      He needs PA that’s not an option Biden could still win with just PA Michigan and Arizona even if Trump flipped WI NV and GA

  • @georgek9285
    @georgek9285 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    You mean Trump path to 400

  • @innosam123
    @innosam123 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    New Hampshire is a state that is highly competitive with high levels of third party support, and 3-way polling is showing the state within 3 (like in 2016, where it was within tilt margins.)
    I would put New Hampshire as competitive as well.

    • @jong.7944
      @jong.7944 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      As bullish as I am on Trump, his entire attitude and approach to politics is basically anathema to the culture of New England. Even if they weren't so Democratic it'd be a tough ask. Maybe if it's Trump +5 on election day Biden has to worry about New Hampshire, but probably not before that.

    • @innosam123
      @innosam123 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      @@jong.7944 Trump nearly won the state in 2016.
      I would anticipate most of the gain comes from voter apathy towards Biden or independents voting 3rd party.

    • @jong.7944
      @jong.7944 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@innosam123 You might be right - discounted NH largely because of the 7+ point swing from 2016 to 2020 (among the highest of the swing states) and unfavorable early polling. But I see Marist recently put it within 3. This might be the only state where persuading the fading NeverTrump bloc might actually matter.

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Bega offers

    • @innosam123
      @innosam123 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@jong.7944 The GOP primaries have shown independents hate Trump about as much as they did in 2020 (ie. by double digit margins.)
      So the ‘never Trump’ block is still a thing amongst a big chunk of the electorate.
      The question isn’t if Trump can pick them up (he probably won’t), it’s how many Joe Biden can (or can’t).

  • @tshore0601
    @tshore0601 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great Analysis. Great channel.

  • @triciaknox7824
    @triciaknox7824 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great channel!

  • @prxovoke
    @prxovoke 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    WI, GA, AZ, NV will flip Red not too sure about PA and MI tho...

  • @AzraelHaze
    @AzraelHaze 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Its going to be a sweep. cant cheat their way in this time.

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      This comment is gonna age like you 😂😂

    • @PretentiousStuff
      @PretentiousStuff 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      oh yes they can. It was a sweep in 2020 for Trump and they, dems, didn't seem to have any trouble handling it.

    • @AzraelHaze
      @AzraelHaze 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Was that supposed to be an insult? oof, you got me.@@opticbigevil7828

  • @phillipmaxwellastrology2978
    @phillipmaxwellastrology2978 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Preventing vote rigging is Trumps path to victory! I don't think Trump can do it alone though, we the people on the ground need to be active

  • @IsaiahFisher19
    @IsaiahFisher19 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Probably holding on to FL TX AND NC

  • @debbymcnutt3637
    @debbymcnutt3637 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    I think Nevada and Arizona will go red as well

    • @brianbenito7228
      @brianbenito7228 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      California is right next to you guys we are turning red fts we are tierd af

  • @calebvalder6855
    @calebvalder6855 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I could see the map going exactly as you laid it out but for some reason I just never feel confident about Pennsylvania. Idk why. Let’s hope.

    • @Elchinodawn
      @Elchinodawn 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Biden won it by a point and a half, sure the gob is strong there, but if biden won by that of a slim %, i doubt now a heavily weakened biden could beat what looks like to be the strongest trump has ever been

  • @joshwinston7711
    @joshwinston7711 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    Arizona feels like it’s trending more democratic, but if immigration stays at the top of all issues, then all four could go red. I think black voters in Georgia and Michigan will swing hard toward Trump, in a political realignment not seen since the republican shift of the old dixiecrat south. We even see this happening in reliably blue states like Massachusetts and Maryland, where urban black voters in Boston and Baltimore are realizing that Biden has betrayed their states, and suddenly you see young men wearing Trump gear in the city centers. Who knows what the national landscape will look like in nine months, but no state is really off the table, should our current issues of concern deepen.

    • @ding9916
      @ding9916 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      This guy drinks Kool Aid lmao.

    • @mizterbradley7206
      @mizterbradley7206 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      UAW strikes will give Biden MI and PA, and make WI tough as well. Trump is likely to pick up GA, but would need to flip WI and AZ in order to win. Not easy, to put it mildly.

    • @hunterwolff-schollmeyer3902
      @hunterwolff-schollmeyer3902 หลายเดือนก่อน

      People are furious at Hiden in Michigan due to the war in the Middle East. ​@@mizterbradley7206

  • @jasoncampos2933
    @jasoncampos2933 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Virginia might flip most of the state is strong conservative

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      VA will not flip

    • @WitiPlays
      @WitiPlays 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@opticbigevil7828You keep replying to comments saying trump will lose and Biden will win. You’re pathetic 😂 - TRUMP 2024 ❤

  • @LifesGood-nu6rd
    @LifesGood-nu6rd 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +11

    He won Pennsylvania in 2020 except they stole it afterwards

    • @soniabalado9071
      @soniabalado9071 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Big ,huge I live here 30 years they stole 2020

  • @Blacksheepcomics
    @Blacksheepcomics 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    how can people think to vote for Biden.

    • @barryemsley5979
      @barryemsley5979 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Lol sorry mate the world is just in disbelief that you guys are considering voting Trump back in.

  • @dustinkelso470
    @dustinkelso470 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    They would probably make it look like that

  • @blueraven6693
    @blueraven6693 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    I think iowa is a solid red state now. And colorado likely blue

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      CO is a solid blue state idk why everyone thinks it’s even remotely red 😂😂

    • @blueraven6693
      @blueraven6693 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      In a best case scenario trump could take it

  • @TheJoeschmoe777
    @TheJoeschmoe777 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great video! Although I honestly can't see Trump grabbing WI without also grabbing MI too

  • @umoabasute9424
    @umoabasute9424 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    #SecureTheBorder: Note 📝 to all Voters 🗳️ I want y’all to keep this in mind with the recent death of Laken Riley which was horrific could be y’all love ❤️ ones if @POTUS Sleepy 😴 Joe doesn’t take action and secure our damn border. @TheDemocrats never gave a damn about securing

  • @abogaymer69
    @abogaymer69 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    LETS GOOOO

  • @BigcountryReactions
    @BigcountryReactions 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Trump just might win every state this time

    • @mudvayne2311
      @mudvayne2311 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      That would be so embarrassing for blue commies

  • @robertgraves580
    @robertgraves580 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Let's get behind president Trump and go win this thing 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

    • @seanmacmahon
      @seanmacmahon 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      😂😂😂

  • @believer4445
    @believer4445 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Voter ID and paper ballots and a fair count

  • @dianeleone1634
    @dianeleone1634 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Look for shenanigans in all swing States.. Even Ohio, a bell weather State.. Lots of turn coats... No such thing as a SAFE State.. Regarding Californication, our relatives since Vietnam Era in San Leandro and Chula Vista, both cousins wealthy and changed parties in 2000. Actually same here..,.
    Trump🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸2024
    God bless All🙏

  • @Utsu-P_Enjoyer
    @Utsu-P_Enjoyer 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Are you taking 3rd and 4th parties into consideration with this?

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      The only candidates Trump or Biden need to worry about are rfk and Cornell

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Ringland. Home. Offers

  • @timz.4000
    @timz.4000 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You never said the final tally. You think I can see those numbers on my phone?

  • @peterjermey7235
    @peterjermey7235 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I think Biden will win Pennsylvania and I'm not sure about Wisconsin, but other than that I agree with the map

  • @dioutek5970
    @dioutek5970 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Georgia it's a wrap

  • @dantyler6907
    @dantyler6907 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    TRUMP 2024😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊

  • @Jarlfenris
    @Jarlfenris 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The so called blue wall

  • @user-ee8vj7xf8z
    @user-ee8vj7xf8z 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Needed some one else to running better chances to win this time November

  • @marksullivan8200
    @marksullivan8200 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I think trump surprisingly takes Nevada

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      As long as Vegas exists it ain’t flipping red

  • @brianbenito7228
    @brianbenito7228 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    California is tired af we will he the state surprised turn into red

  • @keith4886
    @keith4886 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What is needed at all voting stations at the time of counting are officials that constantly check the votes as they come in. None of this having to stand six feet away where you can't see anything regardless of the state where the votes are being counted. Secondly, why are you showing Texas in pink? Working in a retail store & what I hear is that democrats are not that popular. The open borders saw to that!!!

  • @johndrake5028
    @johndrake5028 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    There's more states that are red than that. I'll tell you that for sure 😄

  • @RobertMaynard-fr9fy
    @RobertMaynard-fr9fy 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I love how you state the education level of the battle ground states.
    Most college graduates I work with all vote conservative.
    The indoctrination fades considerably as we age.

  • @ronaldcampbell4191
    @ronaldcampbell4191 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    PA is going to be uphill.... Living in Pittsburgh.. it's a full court press. I was at an event today where democrats said theyre responding to republican polls in favor of Trump. PA will be tight but ultimately if Pitts and Philly turn out, it's blue.

    • @MandatoryMyocarditis7
      @MandatoryMyocarditis7 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      You mean if the ballots turn out?

    • @ronaldcampbell4191
      @ronaldcampbell4191 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@MandatoryMyocarditis7 as a poll worker, that is insulting. Ballots are ballots. As a professional who travels for work and a poll worker, i often do not vote in person. Sorry, not everyone is available on voting day for in person voting.

    • @Brian-px9gu
      @Brian-px9gu 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@ronaldcampbell4191 it is simple fact. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are known for democratic election corruption. See last election.

    • @MandatoryMyocarditis7
      @MandatoryMyocarditis7 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@ronaldcampbell4191 81M ballots, 50M voters.

    • @Brownie-tg3nu
      @Brownie-tg3nu 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@ronaldcampbell4191I think employers should do mail in drug tests too! About the same as an election isn’t it?

  • @James-ll3jb
    @James-ll3jb 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Switch colors for Nevada and Wisconsin.

  • @Andman8210
    @Andman8210 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The best thing you can do is go out and vote and make sure your family votes and your friends.

  • @Nancy-uc2tu
    @Nancy-uc2tu 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What do you mean presumptive nominee. He’s the only in.

  • @blastprosful
    @blastprosful 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Don't forget the steal factor.

  • @Dawg1z
    @Dawg1z 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It all changes in May when the 180 in 180 campaign of Michelle and Gavin kicks off. 180 degree shift in candidates 180 days from inauguration…

  • @thecomedypilot5894
    @thecomedypilot5894 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    It all depends on how much cheating there is.

  • @robinpigeon2070
    @robinpigeon2070 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The Amish need to get out and vote in PA in huge numbers - one problem is they only get married on Tuesdays and I’m hoping they wait until next week…

  • @Eandeavour
    @Eandeavour 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Time 4 round 2 !!!!!! TRUMP 2024🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

  • @crabdude1264
    @crabdude1264 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I’d say North Carolina is the sleeper to flip

  • @ericvan8137
    @ericvan8137 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    You're the only one to scientifically analyze it soooo well!! THANK YOU.

  • @jasoncampos2933
    @jasoncampos2933 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    You are wrong about Virginia sir

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Virginia Dems just recently flipped the legislature what makes you think it will flip red?

    • @jasoncampos2933
      @jasoncampos2933 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The whole state leans more republican that’s obvious… it’s the 4 counties in northern Virginia that controls the whole state. Which is sad that part of Virginia might as well become its own state.

  • @vernbannister9336
    @vernbannister9336 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    New York is possible. Only down 8% i believe.

  • @miennguyen8232
    @miennguyen8232 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What is about Taxas. It should be deep Red We should be concerning.

  • @TheDjcarter1966
    @TheDjcarter1966 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Good call putting MI last if Trump need MI to win he is in trouble. PA is huge because it opens up many others paths including only needing GA for the win. WI is tough tough i lived there the last two years and the cities are just reallyred and rural areas arent populated enough. It will be really close unless of course Biden does a debate then its over for him still going to be interesting to see how they buck over 60 years of history.

  • @theoppositionpodcast
    @theoppositionpodcast 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What are the chances Minnesota flips Red? Any MN in the house?

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Minnesota has been blue since the mid 70s chances are low

    • @Cwpeters
      @Cwpeters 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Low. Though the Republican Party here is ever so slightly more competant, but I haven't personally seen anyone indicating they'd change their vote.

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      North western. App

    • @shanewalton3361
      @shanewalton3361 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Minneapolis and Duluth don’t give a fuck who the republican is. They are STAUNCH Democratic. Reason Minnesota hasn’t voted Republican since the 1970’s??

  • @414violence
    @414violence 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Georgia is a lock because of border, after the migrant crime in that state it's no longer a toss up. If he wins Nv, he'll win Az for sure. Michigan goes Trump like it did in 2016 because of union workers. It all comes down to Pa

    • @mizterbradley7206
      @mizterbradley7206 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Guess you forgot about the UAW strikes? MI, WI, and PA will all see benefits from those under Biden. Gonna be tough for Trump there.

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      The UAW endorsed Biden what r u talking about? 😂

    • @gavinringland1362
      @gavinringland1362 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Ringland. App

    • @WitiPlays
      @WitiPlays 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Plus the Muslims and Arabs are voting red or not voting at all

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@WitiPlays that’s not even true at all what are the statistics behind your claims?? Do you have any actual research you can provide?

  • @lvioland23
    @lvioland23 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Tx primary is on, go GOP! Save America, live or die!!!

  • @andrewmckenzie292
    @andrewmckenzie292 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    "These states have voted the same party last 4 elections"....2024 seems pretty unusual in a lot of ways though with the situation in USA. Might even say the "safe" states for the Democrats especially you could count on one hand. VT, MA, RI, DC, CA, HI well that's six but close enough.

  • @baathbomb2750
    @baathbomb2750 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    PA and GA alone are enough for Trump to win

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      That’s not true at all he would need to flip back every state he won in 2020 as well

    • @opticbigevil7828
      @opticbigevil7828 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Sorry 2016

    • @salalban5378
      @salalban5378 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@opticbigevil7828If he wins pannsylvannia and Georgia it would put him to 270. That's enough to win. Do the math before writing a comment!!

  • @RockChuck
    @RockChuck 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Lol here we go again, right

  • @WitiPlays
    @WitiPlays 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    We will have to gauge it based on the upcoming Michigan Primary. Keep in mind, Arabs and Muslims have threatened to not vote, so we will see the turn out and make an assumption from there.

  • @jasonchristopher5928
    @jasonchristopher5928 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Crazy how California should get that many votes, Florida looks like it will be republican for awhile and their population is raising so we will see

    • @kevinskinner4986
      @kevinskinner4986 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      .... why shouldn't California get that many votes when it has a population higher than 20 states combined?

    • @hunterwolff-schollmeyer3902
      @hunterwolff-schollmeyer3902 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​@@kevinskinner4986because most of their population is dumb as rocks and as dull as rusted iron.

  • @susansmith323
    @susansmith323 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I hope people have learned their lesson and vote for trump😂

    • @beastmod5113
      @beastmod5113 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      So voting for a president that not only left classified documents in a public location, but also tried to pull out of nato to allow Russia to dominate Europe is the solution?

  • @DonaldJTrunnp
    @DonaldJTrunnp 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    If I lose, then Im moving to CANADA! I SWEAR IT!

  • @ALegitPooperVideos
    @ALegitPooperVideos 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I think it would be
    Nevada - Tilt R
    Arizona - Tossup
    Georgia - Tilt R
    Michigan - Tilt R
    Wisconsin - Tossup
    Pennsylvania - Tilt D

    • @salalban5378
      @salalban5378 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I would say Arizona tilts Rebublican as well. Every poll that has been released in the state has Trump leading

  • @gandhithegreat328
    @gandhithegreat328 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +11

    Trump-Scott 2024

    • @chasejordan22
      @chasejordan22 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Trump Carson 2024!!!

    • @gandhithegreat328
      @gandhithegreat328 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      @@chasejordan22 honestly that might be a better idea especially since Dr Carson’s from Detroit! Imagine if he could go back there and get even 10% of the Detroit’s voters to switch. That would swing the Michigan to Trump for sure!

    • @andrewwilliams1884
      @andrewwilliams1884 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Nah, byron donalds is better, or he should seriously consider women as VP, which will definitely help to get those women and youth votes. Tulasi Gabbard is a better choice, or even kristi noem is great. In my opinion, from a tragedy point of view, Tim Scott is a good person, but something about him doesn't feel right to give a VP candidate or potentially future president in 2028 for that reason too. I also don't really like Vivek as VP; he has too much energy, which some people don't like. Trump already does that; there is no need for it. He might potentially bring younger voters, but so do other people. Getting women and independent voters is really important.

    • @BabyMaharaja0
      @BabyMaharaja0 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      I would be happy with Tulsi Gabbard or Carson

  • @user-fj7vm9fz2h
    @user-fj7vm9fz2h 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    All elections are important but this one will decide which Country the nation wants. Can the Republicans stop this destructive actions or will America become a third world nation?

  • @rrrobinson97202
    @rrrobinson97202 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Prices will make people think twice and vote Trump and thats a no brainer

    • @mizterbradley7206
      @mizterbradley7206 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Companies control prices, not government. Over 70% of company CEOs are republicans. Do the math!

  • @PretentiousStuff
    @PretentiousStuff 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Biden upset in Texas? ahaahhaahahahahahhahahahahahahah

  • @DLWBCT
    @DLWBCT 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    FAKETOOB put a non credible link banner. 🤦‍♂️

  • @umoabasute9424
    @umoabasute9424 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Advice of the Day: Policies such as Catch and Release and Soft On Crime only embolden criminals to commit more crimes. Question 🙋‍♂️ Why continue to vote 🗳️ for those people whose policies are putting you in danger? Such as Soft On Crime Policies.

  • @Kosmisch1986
    @Kosmisch1986 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    couldn't he just win PA and GA that would be 270.

  • @heathreeves6327
    @heathreeves6327 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Trump 2024. No more clueless Joe

  • @coldplayfan6070
    @coldplayfan6070 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Then again, Trump is now only trailing Biden by less than 15% in New York state in a new poll that Laura Ingraham mentioned to Trump during the South Carolina town hall. And he plans to conduct a rally in Madison Square Garden, too.

  • @umoabasute9424
    @umoabasute9424 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    #SecuringTheBorder: Question 🙋‍♂️ What’s so hard about coming to America 🇺🇸 the legal right way? Both @POTUS Sleepy 😴 Joe and @TheDemocrats could careless about securing our borders which is why they’ve blood on their hands with the recent death of Laken Riley.

  • @olden21
    @olden21 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Dear Most high god
    May Donald Trump not only win all 3 electoral colleges
    May he also remove corrupt government officials from the government
    And may Donald Trump make America wealthy again
    in god's name
    in Jesus's name
    in the holy spirit's name
    Amen

  • @cyclops9125
    @cyclops9125 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I say az, wi and mi

    • @rwandcoo
      @rwandcoo 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      GA as well.

  • @scottc6812
    @scottc6812 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Why did you not bring up the trunp rallies plsnned for nyc 😂😂 thats going to floor the left