Vlad Vexler has made a reaction video where he expands on my arguments. I agree with everything Vlad says, and I highly recommend you watch his video too. th-cam.com/video/ALLQLsfucvw/w-d-xo.html
You make a good point about the level of disengagement in Russian politics. One of the reasons that many western analysts gave as to why they believed there wouldn't be a war in Ukraine, is that there was no attempt in Russian media to prepare the Russian public for war. I now understand why this didn't happen - there was simply no need to bring the Russian people "on side", since they have no political agency within Russia.
I think a Venn diagram would fit the situation better, to be honest. The steps do not necessarily happen in order, and the second step may well have happened already.
Great work as always Anders. I watch a few Russian TH-camrs and follow some on other Social Media. Also some who are older and not in risk of mobilization. It’s always interesting to see their takes on the political climate inside Russia! Another issue I would absolutely love hearing your take on, is the request for more modern weapon platforms, such as Multirole/Fighter Jets, (Gripen, F16, etc.), Multirole/CAS like attack helicopters, more air defence units, and of course, more Leopard 2. Is it even realistic for Ukraine to retake Crimea within a foreseeable future unless we supply these platforms??? The Russians are heavily entrenched by now, preparing for Ukraine going on the offense! My personal opinion is we might as well start making sure Ukraine can receive and utilize such platforms - I’ve learned a long time ago a saying I try to implement in my own life, “having the right tools is half the job" - and I think it’s about time we start focusing on giving Ukraine the right tools….. As always, thank you for your insight - as always, your perspective is very much appreciated! Tusind tak for at du bruger tid på at dele dine tanker om krigen med os Anders!
Agreed and why are Ukraine still waiting for ALL the right tools? This is the free worlds duty to ensure hitler clones get a clear message.” YOU DON’T PUSH THE FREE WORLD AROUND EVER”
I'm curious if Ukraine can develop thermobaric rockets, because NATO doesn't use them. Those would make quick work of Russian trenches. One deep breakthrough would lead to mass panic, and the collapse of the Russian front, like it did in Kharkiv.
My only concern is the transition time to go from 1980s vintage Warsaw Pact hardware to the 2K generation: the levels of automation might make operational use easy, but maintenance and support an issue. Also, I have no idea how all this different NATO hardware works together. Is there enough compatibility between EU and US hardware to swap between them? I’m an ex-USAF “wrench bender”, and remember major issues between variants of the same aircraft. Inventory lags could slow operational tempo to a crawl if loses are high.
Thank you! As always, you have put reason, words, and examples to my emotions, and it allows me to better organize my thoughts and think more clearly. Your 11+ minutes here have been more useful than many hours of other people's blather.
I have often wondered whether Russia and China shooting themselves in the foot so badly in recent years was just a coincidence or part of a US strategic scenario. Having the enemy overreach and exhaust himself prematurely is a strategy that has worked countless times for the US, in both peace and wartime.
@@Sonmi-451 The USA has shot itself in the foot overseas far more than Russia or China for decades. The USA has pointedly learned nothing by doing it either.
As long as Blinkin runs around the planet meddling in everything making really "clumsy" decisions i can't imagine it being much of a strategy to begin with. Stoltenberg seems like he's demoted to press secretary. Should China take over the reigns for a while I'm questioning if that's a bad thing in comparison.
During WW II propaganda relied on shutting down all communication channels, besides those which were politically correct. It in fact didn't work back then already, as BBC was sending radio messages via the English channel anyways. These days it's even more difficult to isolate a population from opposite information. Nevertheless Russia tries to shut down opposing media platforms. But the people already tasted free media. And while older people are often stuck, the younger generations know how to get information from other sources aside from the official news. It's less about NATO planning something. It's more about lost liberties wich Russians already grew accustomed to. That is not a plan, but an automatic transformation, which happened anyways. It'll be interesting to see how both forces will change Russia, making the people politically engaged, while taking away a large part of their liberties. On top of that, demanding the people to literally die for the Russian regime. 🤺🤷😉
Good analysis, very informative, and like always both un-biased and thought-provoking. You mentioned your interview/ conversation with Maxim Katz, I watched it and highly recommend it to others. Knowing that you only upload new content when you really have something on mind, many thanks for all your work, it helps us to better understand how the things work on a broader spectrum, making it easier for us to draw our own conclusions.
@sixmillionsilencedaccounts3517 Russia producing military supplies and equipment to Ukraine to be wasted, destroyed or used up makes Russian GDP look higher but it makes Russians and their economy no better off than if Russia just blew up those military supplies and equipment in the parking lots of the factories where they were made. Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine only a low percentage of Russia's GDP like China's GDP was actual consumer spending that was of benefit to citizens and now things are worse. Producing military shells and bullets and military vehicles to send to Uktaine inflates the Russian GDP but is of absolutely no real benefit to Russia or to Russian citizens. As well, it would be foolish to trust any economic information supplied by the Russian government which lies all the time.
Excellent analysis, Anders. You clearly explain several key points I've been wondering about with regards to the Russian social contract that requires a large segment of the population to remain morally "asleep" and apathetic and uninterested in politics in order for Putin to survive. Thank you.
Definitely thought provoking challenge because for ordinary Russians the best way to survive has always been stay away from anything that involves politics, government and demanding answer from those in higher authority positions. Good discussion topic Anders.
I’ve watched many street interviews with ordinary Russians and when asked what they think about political or policy topics a very common response is “I’m not an expert in such things, so I don’t have an opinion.” This might be fear of expressing an opinion or they are genuinely detached from any political agency or thought.
That's literally what PoWs say too. So anyone sniffing hopium that russians are SECRETLY anti-war, we literally catch Navalny supporters who claim to be apolitical yet came to kill us as part of their armed forces. See Zolkin interviews. Those are the "ordinary russians". Like, a dude was arrested for protesting corruption... Still went to war. They're fine with genocide.
Yes really helpful thank you. It is doubly a critical moment because not only has Putin reached a point where he has to change the internal Russian political status quo, but the Ukrainians, armed with high morale and some decidedly heavy weaponry, are about to try to defeat his army in a fight to the finish. I keep seeing those young Ukrainian men at the beginning or the war going out to meet the second most powerful army in the world carrying Stingers wearing blue jeans. They had absolutely no chance, yet war is the father of all things.
I agree. Perun and Anders Puck Nielsen are among the best analysts around, and the most un-biased ones. Anders is good at cooking down the most important points into 10-15 minutes yet still being extremely informative, while Perun's Power Point presentations has more details and planning than the Russian military's "3 day's special very limited military -war- -assault- -invasion- operation" in Ukraine.
This is not so much about war as it is about Russian society and politics. Vlad Vexler is the undisputed master in this area. He discussed these issues a year ago. That doesn't take anything away from Nielson though. He is fantastic as well.
@@a5cent As I said, Nielsen sees this war HOLISTICALLY. Vexler knows and talks a lot about politics and society, others talk about the different military aspects, others about economics etc. Nielsen brings these things together.
Thank you Anders for your very thorough and extremely informative approach to explaining this dreadful war. I appreciate that and I agree with you. Ty again.
I predicted Russia "balkanizing" way back 2014 after the Crimea incident. When a country starts playing imperialistic games in current year Europe you know it doesn't have much time left.
Life is not a video game. Taking crimea did not destabilise Russia. If anything it probably helped it politically. War is a destabilising factor inherent to itself.
@@BobWill1846 Only on the most surface levels of detail is your statement correct. At the time, yes, it did seem to help out Russia. However, it unleashed a long chain of events which hurt Russia far more than taking a bit of land could help out. It served as a wake up call to Russia's imperial ambitions, and allowed Ukraine to start gathering strength.
My guess, for some time now, has been that Russia will end up as a cross between Belarus and North Korea. It will collapse into a much smaller country, dependant as a vassal state, upon China, who will keep them poor and struggling, but strong enough to remain a thorn in the west’s flesh. At least, that seems to be what Xi has decided? Note: Chinese electronic maps (their version of Google Maps and so on) have changed the names of regions in the southern areas of the Russian, “Federation,” back to their old Mandarin designations. If that is not a statement of intent, from a nation that is just as desperate as Russia for an injection of, “population,” to curb their demographic crisis, then what is?
@@BobWill1846 : That’s right. “Life is not a video game,” which is why Russia LOSING Crimea is not the, “world shattering,” threat to the world’s stability that Putin so desperately wants you to think it is. There can be no negotiations for peace until the last Russian jackboot has been removed from Crimea. And if that needs to be over Putin’s dead body, so be it. But he’s the only individual on the planet who’s staked his life on keeping it. And the rest of Russia won’t want to sacrifice anything more, once they’ve already lost so much by then. Demagogues can’t buy loyalty, as Putin will find out. When you call for, “peace,” you really mean, “surrender.” Not happening.
It took me a while to get my head around this political apathy at the start of the war. I watched street interviews with ordinary Russians and was astounded by their detachment from what was going on.
From the average Russian perspective Ukraine is just the last entry on a list of “military operations” in and around its borders Russia has been engaged in in the last 2 decades. I doubt Russian state media give citizens actual info on what’s going on and to what scale. They certainly don’t publish data about human losses and certainly don’t talk about the war crimes their troops commit. I saw an interview where an old lady categorically denied Russians massacred civilians. “Our soldiers don’t do those things.”
@@pansepot1490 1) Putin haven't invaded a single country that wasn't bombing civilians at Russian borders 2) According to BBC sponsored Mediazona for march 4 there are 16k Russian losses (not including DNR and LNR forces) according to cementeries and reports on social media. Roughly the same amount of people die in car crushes in Russia per year. 3) You will always have bad people in any army and it's impossible to avoid due to human nature. For example recently there was a report about Australian soldiers killing civilians for fun in Afghanistan and forcing inexperienced soldiers to kill pow to get their first kill 4) There's indeed zero evidence that Russians did anything bad to civilian population. I remember one video of civilian getting of bike and sneaking to Russian positions to get shot later. Which was well deserved, especially considering that Ukrainian government gave civilians weapons in first days of war. And there are countless of videos of ukrainian civilians protesting Russian forces, staying Infront of tanks or asking Russian soldiers to put sunflower seeds in their pockets and no hostile actions towards them later
@@pansepot1490 People belive in what they wish to belive.Your comment simple suggest some UkraineWest propaganda sound humoristic for many independent thinkers.
The war started in 2014. Before that they invaded Georgia in 2008. West really helped with "russian reboots" and buying record amount of oil. We had literal Navalny protesters caught as PoWs, even the few russians who protest their own government still go to war because they're just like that.
Like a good TV series you left me hanging on your final comments Anders and I am now waiting for the next installment. Please follow up with the instability scenarios. Russia breakup, loss of Belarus support, ultra nationalists displacing Putin, etc
The majority of the Belarussian population are against Lukachenko. Belarus are a Russian vassal state in line with those liberated when USSR collapsed. The East German archieves showed that approximately 15-20% of the population were in some shape or form working for, or were forced informers, against the rest. Given the electronic surveillance world we live in, Belarus probably do not need that high a percentage, but I do not think it are far of. I agree with your requests. The instability scenarios are really interesting. Would not be far fetched that current situation could lead to regions/blocks inside Russia seeking independence. Personally I have no doubt WE can handle Russia AND China together if we just have some principle we follow. My fear are the collapse of USA or that it falls into facism. You have to be American to call the US system democracy and it have been diluted over time. I truly worry for USA and its population. The 86% of Americans that a few days before the war against Iraq after 9/11 that in a huge demographic survey agreed to the statement: "Should US invade Iraq to revenge 9/11?" are numbers POOtin never would be able to achieve in an open honest survey in Russia. Considering it were a total lie from USA´s side 86% are a scary percentage showing you can get the US population to believe anything in 50 days as long as all media do not do their job. Free media LOL. Democracy naahhh. Lobby laws that judicially would resemble corruption in ANY EU nation: Check!. POOtin´s efforts to aid Trumps election successfully were a pinnacle in POOtin´s political life for him. Some, not least in the fossil fuel industry, seems very keen on this war to go on forever. WHY do we not step more up and make sure POOtin are crushed in a few weeks in Ukraine? Dark forces in own ranks!
A more detailed analysis of the situation in Belarus and in different states/ regions across Russia would be rather interesting… can’t see many Belarusian people supporting any of their dictator’s actions, also wondering about some of the Russian regions that were disproportionately affected by military recruitment/ draft, various ethnic minorities, economically disadvantaged regions, etc.
Thank you Anders! Always great videos! #RussiaIsATerroristState Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea! 💙💛
To win we'd need SOME help. Anything! It's been over a YEAR asking to close the sky, send troops or give us planes, or at least stop buying russian oil and West has done NOTHING! Except buy more fossil fuels from russians and sing kumbaya. No embargoes, recent US leak shown there's NO secret training or special forces work underway. Only embassy guards inside... Nothing is done, only talks and minimal supply of ammo and tech that barely covers our losses. Goddamn russia is presiding in UN Security Council. You can't even imagine how much Ukrainians despise the Westerners now. Inaction that killed millions, in Syria, Libya, Myanmar, Ukraine, Georgia and wherever else russians will decide to pillage next.
One little addition to what you were saying. It not only matters what percentage of Russians who become politically engaged join "bubbles" other than the Putin bubble but it also matters how those people are distributed across Russia. If 17% of all Russians join a non-Putin bubble that may not sound like a high percentage but if they are to some extent concentrated in certain regions so that in those regions at least 50% of people are in a particular non-Putin bubble then that is a serious concern for Putin. If in particular Moscow and another large western Russian city both have at least 50% of the population in a particular non-Putin bubble then even if in the country as a whole "only" 17% of people are in that particular non-Putin bubble he will still be in a very difficult position.
It will be interesting to see the impact of returning soldiers from Ukraine. It was these people telling the stories to friends and families that ended the Soviet war with Afghanistan and the US war with Viet Nam
@@normanstevens4924 Do you remember what happened after the USSR left Afghanistan? The losses in Afghanistan was NOTHING compared to the losses Russia is facing in Ukraine! There’s a very high chance that this could result in the end of the Federation, or at least regions attempting to go for independence!
There are now thousands of people who know how to use weapons who can choose to get angry at Putin, Ukraine, or another scapegoat. At some point they could organize an uprising together. For now, they're following orders even if it means killing their own men for retreating. They don't sound enthusiastic in the intercepted phone conversations Ukraine has released or the public appeals for better gear. (Complaining about gear is one of the few forms of protest that doesn't risk a long prison term.)
I believe the 'critical mass' threshold is around that 20 percent mark, where things can start to 'boil over'. I'm not sure if there are people in the Kremlin who have idea of the complexities of trying to run a 'populist' dictatorship in a country that is fighting a war that many people don't feel enthuastic about and which is going more or less badly. Thanks for the video!
One of the issues here is that Putin has criminalized the Anti-War movement. It is not possible to criticize, protest, or in any way push back against Putin's policies in regards to the war without risking police harassment and intimidation, arrest and imprisonment (for example, for the man whose daughter drew an anti-war picture), or even worse. Given this, at what point they will actually mobilize against him and organize a cogent Anti-war movement - if at all - is very hard to predict.
That's what makes it especially dangerous for Putin, they have no idea where the breaking point is and they can't monitor public sentiment if people are forbidden from expressing their actual opinions. If it is going to change then it'll happen bit-by-bit at first and then all-at-once.
Russia has roughly 150mio citizens. Up to now, 150,000 Russian soldiers got killed or extremely hurt in Ukraine - that is 1 out of thousand Russians. Nearly all of them are men - so it is like 1 out of 500 men. Most of them are from a certain age range, so it is 1 out of 250 men out of this group. That means nearly everybody has gone to school with someone from this group, nearly everybody has worked together with someone from this group, or visited the same sports club... This war has come close to home very fast...
In the big cities they may not get conscripted but they now realize that they’re becoming a Third World Country. All the interviews on 1420 I’ve seen show Russians very proud of how strong and powerful they are, how “everybody” wants their natural resources. To get lumped in with Africa, India, Iran and China is not what they consider part of their “Royal” lineage. They are “European” white folks gosh darn it.
Thank you for this vid - it's food for thought, as usual. Unfortunately there is another way of fighting the "disengaged" mode - it's scaring and intimidating the populace into submission and obedience. I've read a few books about Russian and Soviet history and I think that this is the way Putin is currently taking. I'm not suggesting that "Russians will always be Russians" - but the country never had a stable prospering democracy and the lore of people "disappearing" or being dragged out of their kommunalka dwellings before dawn has been handed down over generations. Russian commentators have already made jokes about people "falling out of windows" or "suddenly contracting food poisoning" long ago - and I think those were not glitches but attempts to intimidate the citizens into obedience.
That's the Repression bit Anders spoke of at the end. I am sure that Putim will see that as the only way to control. My question is whether Russia will get to the depths of North Korea before the population says "enough"?
And those Russian commentators and news anchors walk a thin line in order not to risk falling out a window themselves. Sometimes you can almost feel the panic inside them while they are trying to make their broadcast interesting while still delivering the propaganda they have been ordered to. Yes, life in Pootin's Russia ain't easy. For anyone.
USA was stable prospering democracy in 80s, and that broke Soviet, because people wish to follow good example and they do.But now its complete dif situation, majority world now hate this "American democracy", even big % USA Republicans support Russia.And Putin now exploit this world situation very well, he will shake the world.
@@gubocci I'm not trying to suggest what Putin should do - I'm saying what I understand he IS doing. He's a KGB man who learned the good old repression game - and ultimately, he doesn't care if people like him as long as they fear him enough to obey him.
Watching your presentations always takes me back to an elective course in political science I did not want to take, but had me more engaged than anything in my major. I came close to switching. You explained as much about OUR system as the Russian.
Excellent commentary! Since early last year, I've seen some commentators liken contemporary Russian Federation's socio-political order to that of Nazi Germany at its peak of internal power and coherence. That has almost certainly never been the case and is unlikely ever to be the case, and this was observable all along based on cues such as Putin's actions, what he did and did not say, and the actual manifestations of social engagement with his war project. Claims have repeatedly been made about Putin having very high popularity during his decades in power; while it is certainly true that any opposition he has faced has been progressively squelched the evidence for his high popularity has never been particularly compelling or prima facie valid. Good polling is challenging even in the most open societies and the capacity to conduct good social science in general is progressively diminished by oppression. Civil wars never emerge out of thin air, meaning that, in hindsight it is often easy to identify the moderating or even mediating factors which precipitated the outbreak of conflict. But this does not mean that civil wars have "diagnostic signs" which allow us to predict when, where and how they will occur, or if they will occur at all. In some cases, societies can persist in states of relative instability for years or even decades with disorder and internal conflict which suggest an impending civil war and it never actually happens. All this to say: it is impossible to predict if, when, where or how a civil war will arise in RF. But, the signs that one could arise have been present for quite some time, and those signs grow more pronounced and widespread as time goes on. Western leaders, commentators, etc., and ANYONE who wishes to promote humanity and Ukraine in particular are behooved to recognize this and do what they can to promote a civil war in RF because that is the least bad prospect for this horror coming to an end. The simplest way for any and all of us to promote Putin's downfall is simply to talk about it, but another critical factor is to NOT suffer chauvinistic generalizations about Russians, which I have seen some of the most open-minded, well-informed and well-intentioned commentators do (not you Anders!). Russians who are either opposed to Putin or merely uncommitted need to know that, many or ideally MOST people in the rest of the world do not hate them simply for being Russian and moreover, that people outside Russia harbor hopes for a reformed Russian society which plays a positive, harmonious and generative role in the international order. The same is true for any and all people who are subject to an oppressive regime (e.g., China, Iran, North Korea, etc.). Hate Putin, hate his regime, hate his loyal followers, but DO NOT hate "Russians" in general, and especially those who are not clearly aligned with Putin. That is the single most important thing for all of us to keep in mind at all times and probably the single most effective way a common person can contribute. As far as "20%" of the RF being opposed to the Putin regime, as you note, it is quite difficult to speculate confidently about such proportions, so I don't think it is particularly edifying to do so. I did want to say though that, 20% of a population being strongly opposed to an authoritarian or even a totalitarian regime would tend to be regarded as a potentially ample fraction to drive a civil war by many scholars. There is no fixed or agreed-upon fraction of a population that is required to provoke a successful revolution, as this can vary depending on a variety of factors such as the political and economic context, the level of support from other social groups, the strength and tactics of the ruling regime, and the availability of resources and external support. Some scholars and activists have suggested that a critical mass of around 3-5% of the population may be necessary to sustain a social movement or political campaign, while others argue that even a small minority can have a significant impact on social change through strategic organizing, mobilization, and media outreach. However, it is important to note that the success of a revolution or social movement is not solely determined by the size of its following, but also by factors such as leadership, organizational structure, ideology, and tactics. Because Putin's decades-long project to "de-politicize" the Russian society was so successful up until Feb 2022, his regime is in some ways quite vulnerable to a potential insurrection or revolt against his power, particularly if that revolt is being led by a confederation of secessionist "Governors" of Federal Subjects (I believe their actual title in Russian is "Head," but effectively the regional administrators of oblasts and other Federal Subjects are equivalent to what we call "Governors" in the U.S.). I think that it is pretty widely accepted that actual support for and loyalty to the Putin regime is considerably lower in some of the territories of RF comprising historically oppressed and marginalized ethnicities within the Russian Federation (e.g., Tatars, Dagestani, the various indigenous peoples of the North, Siberia, and the Far East, Chechens and other North Caucasus peoples, Roma people, migrants and refugees, etc.), to say nothing of persons whose identity makes them a target for repression by the regime (LGBT persons and political activists among others). My hunch is that there is a very large fraction of the total population of the Russian Federation who dislike Putin and this war intensely, but they are not unified and they lack voice. Those last two factors can change pretty rapidly and I suspect that they have already been changing considerably during the past 14 months. We might think of a Western society as an iceberg with a substantial fraction of the total mass above the waterline, lets say 50% or even more; meaning that, the actual dimensions of the phenomenon are mostly visible and making the capacity to guess what comes next easier. Because of how disengaged Russians have been for decades, the fraction that is above the waterline is probably an order of magnitude LESS than in "open" societies like ours in the West, so more like 5% or less. The fact that there have been hundreds of anomalous "incidents" inside Russia (some VERY remote from Ukraine), such as fires, explosion, apparent acts of sabotage, assassinations, etc., seem to corroborate this notion that there is actually much more going on "under the waterline" than is immediately visible to anyone, but especially those of us who are neither experts on contemporary Russian society, nor living inside Russia, which is the vast majority of commentators on the war.
Thank you for this. As always clear and insightful. Your use of thresholds to represent key decision points is really helpful, at least to those of us who have never studied political strategy (5th century Athens excepted).
If you see street interviews in russia, most say they support the war, but most are very scared saying it..... Once they get over that fear things hopefully get moving.
I read an article written by a Russian trying to explain the mindset of the average Russian. He mentioned a rally Navalnyj held back when he was running. A very excited guy came up to Navalnyj after his speech and told him, "if you become President, then I will definitely vote for you" - and no, it wasn’t poor translation of what had been said! I’ve heard an old Russian saying that goes something like this: "Never wish death upon the Tzar", and while it to most sound as support of the Tzar/regime, the implicit meaning/unspoken part, is that the replacement might easily be even worse!
@@gorillaguerillaDK And this nicely explains Russia's high rate of alcoholism and death rate - signs of despair. I imagine China is deliberately not selling them fentynal if they are propping up Russia.
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Vlad Vexler has made a reaction video where he expands on my arguments. I agree with everything Vlad says, and I highly recommend you watch his video too. th-cam.com/video/ALLQLsfucvw/w-d-xo.html
Tak Anders 👍 Super kanal du laver Iøvrigt /Jens/KN-R
Vlad has a very deep understanding of what goes on so thank you. ^^ (tak!)
So weird, I just made a comment that is, pretty much, the topic of this exact video. This feels so weird. Wow, even Pandora's Box. It's getting scary!
Way ahead of you Anders, way ahead of you 😅
You make a good point about the level of disengagement in Russian politics.
One of the reasons that many western analysts gave as to why they believed there wouldn't be a war in Ukraine, is that there was no attempt in Russian media to prepare the Russian public for war. I now understand why this didn't happen - there was simply no need to bring the Russian people "on side", since they have no political agency within Russia.
No need for a 3 day war
Keep up the great work Anders!
Very good and perceptive analysis. I found it amazing how Russians when interviewed say "I don't follow politics" and then scuttle off.
Being Politically disengaged helps one to avoid falling out of 10th floor windows
Another ace summary - your thoughts and considerations are appreciated 🙂
Tak Anders!
Your demonstration on the diagram of the change from a one step process to a two step process was very helpful
I think a Venn diagram would fit the situation better, to be honest. The steps do not necessarily happen in order, and the second step may well have happened already.
Thank you so much for continuing to upload!
Great work as always Anders.
I watch a few Russian TH-camrs and follow some on other Social Media.
Also some who are older and not in risk of mobilization.
It’s always interesting to see their takes on the political climate inside Russia!
Another issue I would absolutely love hearing your take on, is the request for more modern weapon platforms, such as Multirole/Fighter Jets, (Gripen, F16, etc.), Multirole/CAS like attack helicopters, more air defence units, and of course, more Leopard 2.
Is it even realistic for Ukraine to retake Crimea within a foreseeable future unless we supply these platforms???
The Russians are heavily entrenched by now, preparing for Ukraine going on the offense!
My personal opinion is we might as well start making sure Ukraine can receive and utilize such platforms - I’ve learned a long time ago a saying I try to implement in my own life, “having the right tools is half the job" - and I think it’s about time we start focusing on giving Ukraine the right tools…..
As always, thank you for your insight - as always, your perspective is very much appreciated!
Tusind tak for at du bruger tid på at dele dine tanker om krigen med os Anders!
Just my personal opinion on more weapons, no war has ever been lost because of too much firepower.
Agreed and why are Ukraine still waiting for ALL the right tools? This is the free worlds duty to ensure hitler clones get a clear message.” YOU DON’T PUSH THE FREE WORLD AROUND EVER”
My opinion is just leave it as it is and finish off that needless intervention of the states.
I'm curious if Ukraine can develop thermobaric rockets, because NATO doesn't use them. Those would make quick work of Russian trenches.
One deep breakthrough would lead to mass panic, and the collapse of the Russian front, like it did in Kharkiv.
My only concern is the transition time to go from 1980s vintage Warsaw Pact hardware to the 2K generation: the levels of automation might make operational use easy, but maintenance and support an issue. Also, I have no idea how all this different NATO hardware works together. Is there enough compatibility between EU and US hardware to swap between them?
I’m an ex-USAF “wrench bender”, and remember major issues between variants of the same aircraft. Inventory lags could slow operational tempo to a crawl if loses are high.
👍👍 Anders videos are "Quality over Quantity" once again
That's the clearest explanation of how "politics" work in Russia that I've heard. Thank you.
Second that ........ An eye opener.
Well done Anders!
Well, it’s a good thing for everyone that we have individuals who make an effort to be well informed and share their insight with everyone else….
Thank you.
Thank you! As always, you have put reason, words, and examples to my emotions, and it allows me to better organize my thoughts and think more clearly. Your 11+ minutes here have been more useful than many hours of other people's blather.
Always find your video essays informative and thoughtful. Thank you
In hindsight, NATO and China couldn't themselves have planned a better plan for isolating Russia and permanently remove them as a geopolitical rival.
I have often wondered whether Russia and China shooting themselves in the foot so badly in recent years was just a coincidence or part of a US strategic scenario. Having the enemy overreach and exhaust himself prematurely is a strategy that has worked countless times for the US, in both peace and wartime.
@@Sonmi-451
Never attribute to malice what can be done by incompetence…
@@Sonmi-451
The USA has shot itself in the foot overseas far more than Russia or China for decades. The USA has pointedly learned nothing by doing it either.
As long as Blinkin runs around the planet meddling in everything making really "clumsy" decisions i can't imagine it being much of a strategy to begin with. Stoltenberg seems like he's demoted to press secretary. Should China take over the reigns for a while I'm questioning if that's a bad thing in comparison.
During WW II propaganda relied on shutting down all communication channels, besides those which were politically correct. It in fact didn't work back then already, as BBC was sending radio messages via the English channel anyways.
These days it's even more difficult to isolate a population from opposite information. Nevertheless Russia tries to shut down opposing media platforms. But the people already tasted free media. And while older people are often stuck, the younger generations know how to get information from other sources aside from the official news.
It's less about NATO planning something. It's more about lost liberties wich Russians already grew accustomed to.
That is not a plan, but an automatic transformation, which happened anyways.
It'll be interesting to see how both forces will change Russia, making the people politically engaged, while taking away a large part of their liberties. On top of that, demanding the people to literally die for the Russian regime.
🤺🤷😉
Good analysis, very informative, and like always both un-biased and thought-provoking.
You mentioned your interview/ conversation with Maxim Katz, I watched it and highly recommend it to others.
Knowing that you only upload new content when you really have something on mind, many thanks for all your work, it helps us to better understand how the things work on a broader spectrum, making it easier for us to draw our own conclusions.
🇺🇸💙💛🇺🇦👍🏻
Mostly it sounds like wishful thinking.
@@Slavic_Goblin Of course it's BS. IMF predicts for 2024 higher GDP growth for Russia than for the USA. Propagandist clown.
@@sixmillionsilencedaccounts3517
I wouldn't take those predictions seriously.
@sixmillionsilencedaccounts3517 Russia producing military supplies and equipment
to Ukraine to be wasted, destroyed or used up makes Russian GDP
look higher but it makes Russians and their economy no better off than
if Russia just blew up those military supplies and equipment in the
parking lots of the factories where they were made.
Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine only a low percentage of
Russia's GDP like China's GDP was actual consumer spending
that was of benefit to citizens and now things are worse.
Producing military shells and bullets and military vehicles
to send to Uktaine inflates the Russian GDP
but is of absolutely no real benefit to Russia or to Russian citizens.
As well, it would be foolish to trust any economic information
supplied by the Russian government which lies all the time.
Concise, clear and thoughtful. Thank you. It's refreshing to have a channel discuss this topic without the click bait.
This guy's face IS click bait!
On point, coherent and without sensationalism presented. Thanks for the analysis.
Too bad he just pulls things out of his ass, it has nothing to do with reality.
Remember that Ceausescu's end started with a bunch of people whistling at one rally...
Very well thought out and fresh angled take on social problems that are soon to face russia
Excellent analysis, Anders. You clearly explain several key points I've been wondering about with regards to the Russian social contract that requires a large segment of the population to remain morally "asleep" and apathetic and uninterested in politics in order for Putin to survive. Thank you.
I really enjoy this mans analysis. He is a smart bugger and his insights are inspiring. I enjoy his talks immensely.
I agree. And Anders can cook the most important points down to 10 mins. where others would spend ½ hour or more.
Thought provoking and insightful.
Thanks for your videos, Anders!
Please make more.
Another brilliant analysis well presented. Thanks, Anders!
Tak Anders
Precisely! 👍👍👍
All you said make sense…
You are one of the most clever TH-camr…
Thank you from 🇨🇦
Thank you!
You are THE MAN! love how well you articulate issues.
Great one again. Thank you, Anders.
Definitely thought provoking challenge because for ordinary Russians the best way to survive has always been stay away from anything that involves politics, government and demanding answer from those in higher authority positions. Good discussion topic Anders.
Good stuff (as always). Thank you, Anders
Thanks!👍🌞
I’ve watched many street interviews with ordinary Russians and when asked what they think about political or policy topics a very common response is “I’m not an expert in such things, so I don’t have an opinion.” This might be fear of expressing an opinion or they are genuinely detached from any political agency or thought.
It just their hidden bias, if you ask them of camera and pretend you are on their side they will say "i enjoy our army killing those hohols!!"
That's literally what PoWs say too. So anyone sniffing hopium that russians are SECRETLY anti-war, we literally catch Navalny supporters who claim to be apolitical yet came to kill us as part of their armed forces. See Zolkin interviews. Those are the "ordinary russians". Like, a dude was arrested for protesting corruption... Still went to war. They're fine with genocide.
Yes really helpful thank you. It is doubly a critical moment because not only has Putin reached a point where he has to change the internal Russian political status quo, but the Ukrainians, armed with high morale and some decidedly heavy weaponry, are about to try to defeat his army in a fight to the finish. I keep seeing those young Ukrainian men at the beginning or the war going out to meet the second most powerful army in the world carrying Stingers wearing blue jeans. They had absolutely no chance, yet war is the father of all things.
You are a breath of fresh air. I enjoy your calm explanation of these trying times.
Along with Perun, you're definitely the best YT-analyst on this war.
..and definitely the most holistic one.
I agree. Perun and Anders Puck Nielsen are among the best analysts around, and the most un-biased ones.
Anders is good at cooking down the most important points into 10-15 minutes yet still being extremely informative, while Perun's Power Point presentations has more details and planning than the Russian military's "3 day's special very limited military -war- -assault- -invasion- operation" in Ukraine.
This is not so much about war as it is about Russian society and politics.
Vlad Vexler is the undisputed master in this area. He discussed these issues a year ago.
That doesn't take anything away from Nielson though. He is fantastic as well.
@@a5cent
As I said, Nielsen sees this war HOLISTICALLY.
Vexler knows and talks a lot about politics and society, others talk about the different military aspects, others about economics etc.
Nielsen brings these things together.
Great analysis, thanks. Putin is in the position of "zugzwang." He has to do something, and every move just digs his hole deeper.
I interviewed 150+ russians on telegram.. this video 100% resume what i understud from those interviews..
Thank you Anders for your very thorough and extremely informative approach to explaining this dreadful war. I appreciate that and I agree with you. Ty again.
I predicted Russia "balkanizing" way back 2014 after the Crimea incident. When a country starts playing imperialistic games in current year Europe you know it doesn't have much time left.
Life is not a video game. Taking crimea did not destabilise Russia. If anything it probably helped it politically. War is a destabilising factor inherent to itself.
@@BobWill1846 How do you land grab without war? Your comment is very shallow, demonstrating your inability to connect the dots.
@@BobWill1846 Only on the most surface levels of detail is your statement correct.
At the time, yes, it did seem to help out Russia.
However, it unleashed a long chain of events which hurt Russia far more than taking a bit of land could help out.
It served as a wake up call to Russia's imperial ambitions, and allowed Ukraine to start gathering strength.
My guess, for some time now, has been that Russia will end up as a cross between Belarus and North Korea. It will collapse into a much smaller country, dependant as a vassal state, upon China, who will keep them poor and struggling, but strong enough to remain a thorn in the west’s flesh. At least, that seems to be what Xi has decided? Note: Chinese electronic maps (their version of Google Maps and so on) have changed the names of regions in the southern areas of the Russian, “Federation,” back to their old Mandarin designations. If that is not a statement of intent, from a nation that is just as desperate as Russia for an injection of, “population,” to curb their demographic crisis, then what is?
@@BobWill1846 : That’s right. “Life is not a video game,” which is why Russia LOSING Crimea is not the, “world shattering,” threat to the world’s stability that Putin so desperately wants you to think it is. There can be no negotiations for peace until the last Russian jackboot has been removed from Crimea. And if that needs to be over Putin’s dead body, so be it. But he’s the only individual on the planet who’s staked his life on keeping it. And the rest of Russia won’t want to sacrifice anything more, once they’ve already lost so much by then. Demagogues can’t buy loyalty, as Putin will find out.
When you call for, “peace,” you really mean, “surrender.” Not happening.
Another insightful analysis from APN.
It took me a while to get my head around this political apathy at the start of the war. I watched street interviews with ordinary Russians and was astounded by their detachment from what was going on.
Probably on the channel “1420” here on YT?!😅
From the average Russian perspective Ukraine is just the last entry on a list of “military operations” in and around its borders Russia has been engaged in in the last 2 decades. I doubt Russian state media give citizens actual info on what’s going on and to what scale. They certainly don’t publish data about human losses and certainly don’t talk about the war crimes their troops commit.
I saw an interview where an old lady categorically denied Russians massacred civilians. “Our soldiers don’t do those things.”
@@pansepot1490 1) Putin haven't invaded a single country that wasn't bombing civilians at Russian borders
2) According to BBC sponsored Mediazona for march 4 there are 16k Russian losses (not including DNR and LNR forces) according to cementeries and reports on social media. Roughly the same amount of people die in car crushes in Russia per year.
3) You will always have bad people in any army and it's impossible to avoid due to human nature. For example recently there was a report about Australian soldiers killing civilians for fun in Afghanistan and forcing inexperienced soldiers to kill pow to get their first kill
4) There's indeed zero evidence that Russians did anything bad to civilian population. I remember one video of civilian getting of bike and sneaking to Russian positions to get shot later. Which was well deserved, especially considering that Ukrainian government gave civilians weapons in first days of war. And there are countless of videos of ukrainian civilians protesting Russian forces, staying Infront of tanks or asking Russian soldiers to put sunflower seeds in their pockets and no hostile actions towards them later
@@pansepot1490 People belive in what they wish to belive.Your comment simple suggest some UkraineWest propaganda sound humoristic for many independent thinkers.
The war started in 2014. Before that they invaded Georgia in 2008. West really helped with "russian reboots" and buying record amount of oil. We had literal Navalny protesters caught as PoWs, even the few russians who protest their own government still go to war because they're just like that.
pootin has done a great job of letting the whole world see what Russia really is. Well done clap clap.
Like a good TV series you left me hanging on your final comments Anders and I am now waiting for the next installment. Please follow up with the instability scenarios. Russia breakup, loss of Belarus support, ultra nationalists displacing Putin, etc
The majority of the Belarussian population are against Lukachenko. Belarus are a Russian vassal state in line with those liberated when USSR collapsed. The East German archieves showed that approximately 15-20% of the population were in some shape or form working for, or were forced informers, against the rest. Given the electronic surveillance world we live in, Belarus probably do not need that high a percentage, but I do not think it are far of. I agree with your requests. The instability scenarios are really interesting. Would not be far fetched that current situation could lead to regions/blocks inside Russia seeking independence.
Personally I have no doubt WE can handle Russia AND China together if we just have some principle we follow. My fear are the collapse of USA or that it falls into facism. You have to be American to call the US system democracy and it have been diluted over time. I truly worry for USA and its population. The 86% of Americans that a few days before the war against Iraq after 9/11 that in a huge demographic survey agreed to the statement: "Should US invade Iraq to revenge 9/11?" are numbers POOtin never would be able to achieve in an open honest survey in Russia. Considering it were a total lie from USA´s side 86% are a scary percentage showing you can get the US population to believe anything in 50 days as long as all media do not do their job. Free media LOL. Democracy naahhh. Lobby laws that judicially would resemble corruption in ANY EU nation: Check!.
POOtin´s efforts to aid Trumps election successfully were a pinnacle in POOtin´s political life for him. Some, not least in the fossil fuel industry, seems very keen on this war to go on forever. WHY do we not step more up and make sure POOtin are crushed in a few weeks in Ukraine? Dark forces in own ranks!
A more detailed analysis of the situation in Belarus and in different states/ regions across Russia would be rather interesting… can’t see many Belarusian people supporting any of their dictator’s actions, also wondering about some of the Russian regions that were disproportionately affected by military recruitment/ draft, various ethnic minorities, economically disadvantaged regions, etc.
-If- when Russia breaks up please alert me in time; I will need to be stocked up on *popcorn* when that happens.
Thank you Anders! Always great videos!
#RussiaIsATerroristState
Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea! 💙💛
Really intelligent analysis! Respect 🫡
Thank you . Always love your insights .
Thank you, Sir. I think the sooner Ukraine wins the better.
Win what they cant
To win we'd need SOME help. Anything! It's been over a YEAR asking to close the sky, send troops or give us planes, or at least stop buying russian oil and West has done NOTHING! Except buy more fossil fuels from russians and sing kumbaya. No embargoes, recent US leak shown there's NO secret training or special forces work underway. Only embassy guards inside... Nothing is done, only talks and minimal supply of ammo and tech that barely covers our losses. Goddamn russia is presiding in UN Security Council. You can't even imagine how much Ukrainians despise the Westerners now. Inaction that killed millions, in Syria, Libya, Myanmar, Ukraine, Georgia and wherever else russians will decide to pillage next.
excellent analysis as usual !!!
Thank you and greetings from 🇨🇭👍
This was outstanding! Excellent video (I may use a clip of it).
Der går for lang tid mellem hver af dine indslag hr. Dine videoer er så utrolig spændende!
What a great description of the potential Russian political options.
Thanks for the video
One little addition to what you were saying.
It not only matters what percentage of Russians who become politically engaged
join "bubbles" other than the Putin bubble
but it also matters how those people are distributed across Russia.
If 17% of all Russians join a non-Putin bubble that may not sound like a high percentage
but if they are to some extent concentrated in certain regions so that in
those regions at least 50% of people are in a particular non-Putin bubble
then that is a serious concern for Putin.
If in particular Moscow and another large western Russian city
both have at least 50% of the population in a particular
non-Putin bubble then even if in the country as a whole
"only" 17% of people are in that particular non-Putin bubble
he will still be in a very difficult position.
The funniest thing is Western Putin supporters, who no matter what will continue to see him as a master strategist!
great work. love your analysis. always a pleasure watching your vids
Well made video. Helps me take in different ideas and opinions.
Thanks for this. I never really understood why mobilization was so slow and small
Nobody has the crystal ball but I value Ander's thoughts very much.
It will be interesting to see the impact of returning soldiers from Ukraine. It was these people telling the stories to friends and families that ended the Soviet war with Afghanistan and the US war with Viet Nam
Yes, it will have a huge impact on Russian society going forward.
Yes, but those were ethnic Russians from Moscow and St Petersburg. Returning Chechens or Siberians are not going to influence the political discourse.
@@normanstevens4924
Do you remember what happened after the USSR left Afghanistan?
The losses in Afghanistan was NOTHING compared to the losses Russia is facing in Ukraine!
There’s a very high chance that this could result in the end of the Federation, or at least regions attempting to go for independence!
There are now thousands of people who know how to use weapons who can choose to get angry at Putin, Ukraine, or another scapegoat. At some point they could organize an uprising together. For now, they're following orders even if it means killing their own men for retreating.
They don't sound enthusiastic in the intercepted phone conversations Ukraine has released or the public appeals for better gear. (Complaining about gear is one of the few forms of protest that doesn't risk a long prison term.)
thanks. !!
Thanks for another great video Anders. You always leave me pondering on issues and ideas I hadn't considered. This Texan says keep up the great work.
I believe the 'critical mass' threshold is around that 20 percent mark, where things can start to 'boil over'. I'm not sure if there are people in the Kremlin who have idea of the complexities of trying to run a 'populist' dictatorship in a country that is fighting a war that many people don't feel enthuastic about and which is going more or less badly. Thanks for the video!
Too bad we never had 20% against the iraq waaar liies until after the war.
80 \ 20 is a natural number very stable... When that number changes the nature itself balance it again but in the other way
Awesome analysis, thank you for sharing it with us
Thanks very much.
One of the issues here is that Putin has criminalized the Anti-War movement. It is not possible to criticize, protest, or in any way push back against Putin's policies in regards to the war without risking police harassment and intimidation, arrest and imprisonment (for example, for the man whose daughter drew an anti-war picture), or even worse. Given this, at what point they will actually mobilize against him and organize a cogent Anti-war movement - if at all - is very hard to predict.
That's what makes it especially dangerous for Putin, they have no idea where the breaking point is and they can't monitor public sentiment if people are forbidden from expressing their actual opinions. If it is going to change then it'll happen bit-by-bit at first and then all-at-once.
As usual a super interesting video
Great talk again
Russia has roughly 150mio citizens. Up to now, 150,000 Russian soldiers got killed or extremely hurt in Ukraine - that is 1 out of thousand Russians. Nearly all of them are men - so it is like 1 out of 500 men. Most of them are from a certain age range, so it is 1 out of 250 men out of this group.
That means nearly everybody has gone to school with someone from this group, nearly everybody has worked together with someone from this group, or visited the same sports club...
This war has come close to home very fast...
In the big cities they may not get conscripted but they now realize that they’re becoming a Third World Country. All the interviews on 1420 I’ve seen show Russians very proud of how strong and powerful they are, how “everybody” wants their natural resources. To get lumped in with Africa, India, Iran and China is not what they consider part of their “Royal” lineage. They are “European” white folks gosh darn it.
Endnu engang tak, for en sober og saglig analyse.
Awesome as always 👍
Good stuff Anders!
Thank you for this vid - it's food for thought, as usual.
Unfortunately there is another way of fighting the "disengaged" mode - it's scaring and intimidating the populace into submission and obedience.
I've read a few books about Russian and Soviet history and I think that this is the way Putin is currently taking.
I'm not suggesting that "Russians will always be Russians" - but the country never had a stable prospering democracy and the lore of people "disappearing" or being dragged out of their kommunalka dwellings before dawn has been handed down over generations.
Russian commentators have already made jokes about people "falling out of windows" or "suddenly contracting food poisoning" long ago - and I think those were not glitches but attempts to intimidate the citizens into obedience.
That's the Repression bit Anders spoke of at the end. I am sure that Putim will see that as the only way to control. My question is whether Russia will get to the depths of North Korea before the population says "enough"?
And those Russian commentators and news anchors walk a thin line in order not to risk falling out a window themselves. Sometimes you can almost feel the panic inside them while they are trying to make their broadcast interesting while still delivering the propaganda they have been ordered to. Yes, life in Pootin's Russia ain't easy. For anyone.
USA was stable prospering democracy in 80s, and that broke Soviet, because people wish to follow good example and they do.But now its complete dif situation, majority world now hate this "American democracy", even big % USA Republicans support Russia.And Putin now exploit this world situation very well, he will shake the world.
You are wrong. Doing that keeps the population uninterested in politics and now Putin needs to do the exact opposite.
@@gubocci
I'm not trying to suggest what Putin should do - I'm saying what I understand he IS doing.
He's a KGB man who learned the good old repression game - and ultimately, he doesn't care if people like him as long as they fear him enough to obey him.
Thanks so much!
This video was helpful and insightful. Thanks Anders.
Watching your presentations always takes me back to an elective course in political science I did not want to take, but had me more engaged than anything in my major. I came close to switching. You explained as much about OUR system as the Russian.
Good work - BZ
I look forward to your informative posts.
Thank you. Watching from Alaska.
Excellent commentary! Since early last year, I've seen some commentators liken contemporary Russian Federation's socio-political order to that of Nazi Germany at its peak of internal power and coherence. That has almost certainly never been the case and is unlikely ever to be the case, and this was observable all along based on cues such as Putin's actions, what he did and did not say, and the actual manifestations of social engagement with his war project. Claims have repeatedly been made about Putin having very high popularity during his decades in power; while it is certainly true that any opposition he has faced has been progressively squelched the evidence for his high popularity has never been particularly compelling or prima facie valid. Good polling is challenging even in the most open societies and the capacity to conduct good social science in general is progressively diminished by oppression.
Civil wars never emerge out of thin air, meaning that, in hindsight it is often easy to identify the moderating or even mediating factors which precipitated the outbreak of conflict. But this does not mean that civil wars have "diagnostic signs" which allow us to predict when, where and how they will occur, or if they will occur at all. In some cases, societies can persist in states of relative instability for years or even decades with disorder and internal conflict which suggest an impending civil war and it never actually happens. All this to say: it is impossible to predict if, when, where or how a civil war will arise in RF. But, the signs that one could arise have been present for quite some time, and those signs grow more pronounced and widespread as time goes on. Western leaders, commentators, etc., and ANYONE who wishes to promote humanity and Ukraine in particular are behooved to recognize this and do what they can to promote a civil war in RF because that is the least bad prospect for this horror coming to an end. The simplest way for any and all of us to promote Putin's downfall is simply to talk about it, but another critical factor is to NOT suffer chauvinistic generalizations about Russians, which I have seen some of the most open-minded, well-informed and well-intentioned commentators do (not you Anders!). Russians who are either opposed to Putin or merely uncommitted need to know that, many or ideally MOST people in the rest of the world do not hate them simply for being Russian and moreover, that people outside Russia harbor hopes for a reformed Russian society which plays a positive, harmonious and generative role in the international order. The same is true for any and all people who are subject to an oppressive regime (e.g., China, Iran, North Korea, etc.). Hate Putin, hate his regime, hate his loyal followers, but DO NOT hate "Russians" in general, and especially those who are not clearly aligned with Putin. That is the single most important thing for all of us to keep in mind at all times and probably the single most effective way a common person can contribute.
As far as "20%" of the RF being opposed to the Putin regime, as you note, it is quite difficult to speculate confidently about such proportions, so I don't think it is particularly edifying to do so. I did want to say though that, 20% of a population being strongly opposed to an authoritarian or even a totalitarian regime would tend to be regarded as a potentially ample fraction to drive a civil war by many scholars. There is no fixed or agreed-upon fraction of a population that is required to provoke a successful revolution, as this can vary depending on a variety of factors such as the political and economic context, the level of support from other social groups, the strength and tactics of the ruling regime, and the availability of resources and external support. Some scholars and activists have suggested that a critical mass of around 3-5% of the population may be necessary to sustain a social movement or political campaign, while others argue that even a small minority can have a significant impact on social change through strategic organizing, mobilization, and media outreach. However, it is important to note that the success of a revolution or social movement is not solely determined by the size of its following, but also by factors such as leadership, organizational structure, ideology, and tactics. Because Putin's decades-long project to "de-politicize" the Russian society was so successful up until Feb 2022, his regime is in some ways quite vulnerable to a potential insurrection or revolt against his power, particularly if that revolt is being led by a confederation of secessionist "Governors" of Federal Subjects (I believe their actual title in Russian is "Head," but effectively the regional administrators of oblasts and other Federal Subjects are equivalent to what we call "Governors" in the U.S.).
I think that it is pretty widely accepted that actual support for and loyalty to the Putin regime is considerably lower in some of the territories of RF comprising historically oppressed and marginalized ethnicities within the Russian Federation (e.g., Tatars, Dagestani, the various indigenous peoples of the North, Siberia, and the Far East, Chechens and other North Caucasus peoples, Roma people, migrants and refugees, etc.), to say nothing of persons whose identity makes them a target for repression by the regime (LGBT persons and political activists among others). My hunch is that there is a very large fraction of the total population of the Russian Federation who dislike Putin and this war intensely, but they are not unified and they lack voice. Those last two factors can change pretty rapidly and I suspect that they have already been changing considerably during the past 14 months.
We might think of a Western society as an iceberg with a substantial fraction of the total mass above the waterline, lets say 50% or even more; meaning that, the actual dimensions of the phenomenon are mostly visible and making the capacity to guess what comes next easier. Because of how disengaged Russians have been for decades, the fraction that is above the waterline is probably an order of magnitude LESS than in "open" societies like ours in the West, so more like 5% or less. The fact that there have been hundreds of anomalous "incidents" inside Russia (some VERY remote from Ukraine), such as fires, explosion, apparent acts of sabotage, assassinations, etc., seem to corroborate this notion that there is actually much more going on "under the waterline" than is immediately visible to anyone, but especially those of us who are neither experts on contemporary Russian society, nor living inside Russia, which is the vast majority of commentators on the war.
Thank you so much. I always appreciate your analysis.
Thank you for this. As always clear and insightful. Your use of thresholds to represent key decision points is really helpful, at least to those of us who have never studied political strategy (5th century Athens excepted).
5th century BC Athens political strategy.
Insightful, impactful and succinct.
Just as we've come to expect from you Sir. Thank you Anders.
Excellent assessment
Super interesting topic, as always! Thank you and keep those videos coming!
Thank you for your insightfullness
Another upload! Awesome
And that's a big LIKE from me and a SUBSCRIBE as I found you eminently reasonable with excellent arguments. Cheers, Dude.
Thank you for this and all your videos! Your perspective and insights are always interesting and enlightening! Looking forward to future postings!!
Brilliant analysis Anders. Absolutely top level content, and we have a lot to choose from!
Excellent video Anders, very informative. You present the situtation very clearly.
If you see street interviews in russia, most say they support the war, but most are very scared saying it..... Once they get over that fear things hopefully get moving.
This was really interesting,
Glory, Victory, Peace and Justice for Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇬🇧
Very interesting, thank you Anders 👍
Thank you for explanations
Great insights!
Brilliant viewpoints in this video. Godt formuleret Anders 👍
Great analysis. Thank you, Anders. Look forward to your next podcast.
It really help understand the lack of Russian people reactions; I guess I will stop expecting anything from them, except for their complicity.
I read an article written by a Russian trying to explain the mindset of the average Russian.
He mentioned a rally Navalnyj held back when he was running. A very excited guy came up to Navalnyj after his speech and told him, "if you become President, then I will definitely vote for you" - and no, it wasn’t poor translation of what had been said!
I’ve heard an old Russian saying that goes something like this: "Never wish death upon the Tzar", and while it to most sound as support of the Tzar/regime, the implicit meaning/unspoken part, is that the replacement might easily be even worse!
@@gorillaguerillaDK And this nicely explains Russia's high rate of alcoholism and death rate - signs of despair. I imagine China is deliberately not selling them fentynal if they are propping up Russia.
It seems young Russians quickly got an opinion on the war when there was a mobilization. Complicit until they might suffer.