Really good analysis, you got yourself a subscriber. Part of my bullish sentiment in Nvidia is the cost increases and performance increases on the AI chips. From the example you gave of Blackwell over hopper the benefit of upgrading to Blackwell from Hopper are very clear. I also came to this sentiment myself. If you look into the historical cost of their AI chips you see a clear strong growth in performance, energy savings and in cost. Assuming similar price increases as seen in previous generations the next generation after Blackwell will be at: 35% increase: $94,500. 55% increase: $108,500. 75% increase: $122,500. So, looking at the history of what's happened over the last several years. I believe there's still some very strong growth left in Nvidia's tank.
Yeah, thanks for watching. What you just said is not well understand by most investors and even analysts. Nvidia's customers are already getting ROIs from their Ai investments. More importantly, Nvidia's customers will continue to invest in Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell, Rubin and future platforms because these new platforms will be much more performant and more energy-efficient, which will drive down the total cost of ownership.
Great Analysis Victor! I wish I will be available to evaluate stocks like you someday. Would love to hear your take on Micron Technology (MU). It's currently available for a forward PE of 10. Thanks Victor.
Would you be willing to make a video showcasing %age allocation of the stocks you hold? Alternatively, letting us know the weights you assign to each stock? e.g. NVDA and TSLA are both appealing but it will be nice to know your opinion on weights you assign.
I'm a bit of a newbie, so this might be a dumb question, but... I bought some stock at 97, 102, 112, and unfortunately, 118 (rookie mistake). I read reports, joined NVIDIA's meeting, etc. The situation didn’t look bad, but expectations were higher, so everything dropped. Now, we’re sitting at 102. In my opinion, if it falls below 100, it could dip down to 80-85. The big players are selling. What's the better move here? Should I just hold and take the loss, or sell around 100 and try to buy back at 85? I still see a lot of potential with Blackwell.
First thing is that we have to ignore all the market noise and focus on business fundamentals. It doesn’t matter what the big players are doing. What matters the most is Nvidia’s business fundamentals, product roadmap and growth. Nvidia’s data center business is doing very well if you look at the earnings and guidance. The demand for Blackwell is even stronger than Hopper. Just imagine you are investing in a business and you are a part owner of the business. If you are a long term investor, your goal is to keep buying and holding shares of the best businesses, and try your best to buy them when they are likely undervalued or fairly valued. As long as the business is doing very well, the stock will follow and it will perform very well over the long term. So focus on the business fundamentals and be patient.
I think it depends on several things. E.g. If you can redeploy your capital in other better opportunities that are more undervalued and if the stock is traded well above its intrinsic value, then it probably makes sense to sell some shares and reinvest in your money.
Nvidia expects the demand for Blackwell will be even stronger than Hopper. Not advice, but I'm pretty sure Nvidia will recover since it's likely undervalued now + Nvidia expects that it will sell a lot of Blackwell systems next year.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor it's overvalued because of cuda. it's a very fragile monopoly that all big tech wants to kill. and it will happen within 3 years at most. intel and amd can easily make better hardware once that happens. also, most of their big customers have already finished buying. NVIDIA is modern day kodak, IBM, Enron. take your pick.
You do know that AMD and Intel are many years behind in the AI software stack right? And CUDA has been the industrial standard for many years and it’s supported by millions of developers around the world. Also Nvidia owns around 90% of the AI server market and well over 70% of the consumer GPU market. It’s like Apple’s iOS ecosystem that’s well supported by millions of developers. It’s about the entire ecosystem not just the chip. For example, if you are an AI developer making an AI application or making your own AI model, you would want to develop your AI application using the most popular platform and that has the most users. Why do you want to develop your AI model using software/tools/libraries that are not well developed or optimized yet. Btw, No one wants Intel’s GPUs. You can tell by looking at Intel’s latest earnings. Also, all the hyperscale cloud providers are increasing their CAPEX on AI infrastructure. Just look at Oracle’s latest earnings call. Also, take a look at Elon Musk’s latest AI data center that has 100K H100 GPUs from Nvidia. He is planning to increase his cluster of AI GPUS to 200K H100 within a few months. If you are a PC gamer, you will know how dominant Nvidia’s GPUs are and how good their software optimization is. In the consumer GPU market, AMD can only compete in the mid range GPUs. AMD has recently decided not to compete with Nvidia in the high-end GPU market at all.
👏👏👏👏👏If you like my channel and want to support it, here is how you can help: www.patreon.com/IntelligentInvestorChannel
Bought the stock Monday morning after watching this video and got some quick gains this week so came back to comment and like. Thanks Victor!
Good stuff. I also bought the dip too:)
Really good analysis, you got yourself a subscriber.
Part of my bullish sentiment in Nvidia is the cost increases and performance increases on the AI chips. From the example you gave of Blackwell over hopper the benefit of upgrading to Blackwell from Hopper are very clear. I also came to this sentiment myself. If you look into the historical cost of their AI chips you see a clear strong growth in performance, energy savings and in cost. Assuming similar price increases as seen in previous generations the next generation after Blackwell will be at: 35% increase: $94,500. 55% increase: $108,500. 75% increase: $122,500. So, looking at the history of what's happened over the last several years. I believe there's still some very strong growth left in Nvidia's tank.
Yeah, thanks for watching. What you just said is not well understand by most investors and even analysts. Nvidia's customers are already getting ROIs from their Ai investments. More importantly, Nvidia's customers will continue to invest in Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell, Rubin and future platforms because these new platforms will be much more performant and more energy-efficient, which will drive down the total cost of ownership.
Thanks for the great analysis Victor!
Thank u for your analysis, Keep it up!
Thanks for the very deep analysis. Time to do PLTR !
Probably this month.
Wow, a 38 minute video! Excellent analysis as always.
Thanks!
Wow Great video! Thx so much! 💚🖤📈🇺🇸
Thanks!
As always, great job on your analysis of NVDA, one of my top holdings. Thanks.
Great Analysis Victor! I wish I will be available to evaluate stocks like you someday. Would love to hear your take on Micron Technology (MU). It's currently available for a forward PE of 10. Thanks Victor.
Would you be willing to make a video showcasing %age allocation of the stocks you hold? Alternatively, letting us know the weights you assign to each stock? e.g. NVDA and TSLA are both appealing but it will be nice to know your opinion on weights you assign.
Probably I'll talk about how I allocate to each company when I talk about portfolio strategies in future videos.
Victor, what is your day job?
I have been working as an advisor at a local FI for many years.
Keep doing longer videos 👌
Victor!!!! 🎉
great video, would love to see one of CRWD/AMD or something.
I made a video about AMD a few weeks ago. It's still updated.
I'm a bit of a newbie, so this might be a dumb question, but... I bought some stock at 97, 102, 112, and unfortunately, 118 (rookie mistake). I read reports, joined NVIDIA's meeting, etc. The situation didn’t look bad, but expectations were higher, so everything dropped. Now, we’re sitting at 102. In my opinion, if it falls below 100, it could dip down to 80-85. The big players are selling. What's the better move here? Should I just hold and take the loss, or sell around 100 and try to buy back at 85? I still see a lot of potential with Blackwell.
First thing is that we have to ignore all the market noise and focus on business fundamentals. It doesn’t matter what the big players are doing. What matters the most is Nvidia’s business fundamentals, product roadmap and growth. Nvidia’s data center business is doing very well if you look at the earnings and guidance. The demand for Blackwell is even stronger than Hopper. Just imagine you are investing in a business and you are a part owner of the business. If you are a long term investor, your goal is to keep buying and holding shares of the best businesses, and try your best to buy them when they are likely undervalued or fairly valued. As long as the business is doing very well, the stock will follow and it will perform very well over the long term. So focus on the business fundamentals and be patient.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Thank you!
Thanks Victor, can you please look at AMD, what do you think of it? Isn't it's PE too high?
I made a video about AMD a few weeks ago. You have to look at the non-GAAP financials to understand AMD. The PE is misleading.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Ohh okay, I am new to the channel, will take a look, thanks!
Can you take a look at Google?
Thank you Victor!! Question- what criteria do you use to sell? At what point above intrinsic value do you sell?
I think it depends on several things. E.g. If you can redeploy your capital in other better opportunities that are more undervalued and if the stock is traded well above its intrinsic value, then it probably makes sense to sell some shares and reinvest in your money.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor got
It, thank you! Selling is always the hardest part
Bought 12 stocks this friday, if they drop even lower on monday i will buy even more.
Nvidia stocks for 80-100$ is a bargain.
I bought 317 shares at $113.95 im about to cry 😭 if it goes to $80 I'm going to buy more to drop my average cost
I bought Nvidia many times (e.g. $105/share, $99/share, and when it was under $2T in market cap). I'll likely add more to Nvidia if dips below $100.
@@moderadorz7826 pretty sure we will see Nvidia back at 130$+ before new year.
@@moderadorz7826 just dollar cost average lol if it drops to $80, buy another 317 shares and you'll be laughing in a year or two haha
Bought 951 shares at 126.11 smh, should I hold or sell and let it be a learned lesson?
Nvidia expects the demand for Blackwell will be even stronger than Hopper. Not advice, but I'm pretty sure Nvidia will recover since it's likely undervalued now + Nvidia expects that it will sell a lot of Blackwell systems next year.
You must hold it's going to go up.
The stock will not go below 80. And it will go up 1 week before next earnings. Pray that we have good economic data in between.
Hi sir, could you do a video on avago?
Yup, I did a video about it not too long ago. I bought Broadcom too early. Now, it's slightly undervalued after it dipped 9% after earnings.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor I also bought it too early and on margin lol
You have not take in account recession risk.
Well recession risk affects every company.
Lopez Kevin Brown Sandra Lopez Jennifer
Young Amy Hernandez David Thompson Barbara
Garcia Amy Brown Paul Jones Shirley
Anderson Melissa Anderson Kimberly Clark Melissa
NVDA so overvalued still lol, u not a value investor
Want to explain why you think it’s overvalued?
@@TheIntelligentInvestor it's overvalued because of cuda. it's a very fragile monopoly that all big tech wants to kill. and it will happen within 3 years at most. intel and amd can easily make better hardware once that happens. also, most of their big customers have already finished buying. NVIDIA is modern day kodak, IBM, Enron. take your pick.
You do know that AMD and Intel are many years behind in the AI software stack right? And CUDA has been the industrial standard for many years and it’s supported by millions of developers around the world. Also Nvidia owns around 90% of the AI server market and well over 70% of the consumer GPU market. It’s like Apple’s iOS ecosystem that’s well supported by millions of developers. It’s about the entire ecosystem not just the chip. For example, if you are an AI developer making an AI application or making your own AI model, you would want to develop your AI application using the most popular platform and that has the most users. Why do you want to develop your AI model using software/tools/libraries that are not well developed or optimized yet. Btw, No one wants Intel’s GPUs. You can tell by looking at Intel’s latest earnings. Also, all the hyperscale cloud providers are increasing their CAPEX on AI infrastructure. Just look at Oracle’s latest earnings call. Also, take a look at Elon Musk’s latest AI data center that has 100K H100 GPUs from Nvidia. He is planning to increase his cluster of AI GPUS to 200K H100 within a few months. If you are a PC gamer, you will know how dominant Nvidia’s GPUs are and how good their software optimization is. In the consumer GPU market, AMD can only compete in the mid range GPUs. AMD has recently decided not to compete with Nvidia in the high-end GPU market at all.